In this episode, we will start discussing the 2020s. We will introduce a unique and novel framework that we will follow around scenario planning, frame when exactly the 2020s start (hint: starts with a C and ends with 19), debate the macro landscape - both governmental/geopolitical and non-governmental and finalize with the user paradigms around Work, Home and Mobility.
We will continue this discussion of the 2020s in the next episodes, including the second part of our analysis of the 2020s, in which we will delve into the future of Energy + Climate Change, Healthcare, Education, Financial, Retail & Commerce, Leisure & Entertainment and Social & Communication. Look out for episode 12.
Navigation:
Introduction (01:24)
Section 1 - When did the 2020s start? (02:41)
Section 2 - Macro, World Governance, Geopolitics and Non-Governmental (03:24)
Section 3 - User Paradigms (28:08)
Conclusion (53:49)
Our co-hosts:
Bertrand Schmitt, Tech Entrepreneur, co-founder and Chairman at App Annie, @bschmitt
Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, co-Founder and Managing Partner of Strive Capital, @ngpedro
Our show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news.
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Full transcription: may contain unintentionally confusing, inaccurate and/or amusing transcription errors
Intro (01:24)
Nuno: In today's episode, episode 11 we will start talking about the 2020s, the decade that we have ahead of us. We will drive this into different episodes and we will choose a framework that's a little bit different than those normally followed by people that we normally listen to. We will choose a scenario planning framework.
The difference between a scenario planning framework and simply a forecast framework is in forecasting. We're trying to extrapolate the future from where we start today. In a scenario planning exercise, we really doing a little bit of time traveling to start with. We're moving ourselves into the future and to 2025, 2029 and we're trying to figure out, from there, what things would need to happen to give rise to those scenarios. In some cases, we will share very strong views, which we hope you're okay with, but in others we will really structure two or three potential scenarios for some of the elements that we will discuss. The objective is to start the discussion going and to the best of our knowledge, really frame what's ahead of us in the next five to 10 years.
Section 1 - When did the 2020s started? (02:41)
Bertrand: We will start with, where does it start? When did the 2020s started? And I guess everyone will agree that right now under shelter in place we have a pretty momentous event with us. We're in the middle of COVID-19 emergency, we are in a new world, a brave new world, I guess, and that's how the 2020s started. Obviously it will be more difficult to guess exactly when this decade will be over, beyond, the digits, but more based on inflection points.
Nuno: So we start with crisis.
Bertrand: We start with crisis. Hopefully we don't end with crisis
Nuno: It seems like every decade has been defined by crisis. So the likelihood of that we shall see.
Bertrand: Indeed
Section 2 - Macro, World Governance, Geopolitics, Non-Governmental (03:24)
Nuno: We are gonna talk about scenarios for what the world will look like in 2029, 2030, from what I call the outlandish, to the predictable. And we're going to start with the macro space, world governance, geopolitical, and non-governmental elements.
2.1 Covid-19 impact
So we'll start with coronavirus, which is obviously in our minds today, and we've already dedicated episode 9A and 9B to the discussion around coronavirus. So today we will not repeat what we discussed in that episode. So go back to episode 9A and 9B to really see our...