The ACID Capitalist Podcast
Gonzo Finance! Hugh Hendry is an Award Winning Hedge Fund Manager, Market Commentator, Thought Leader, St Barts Real Estate Investor & Surfer. Full episodes are available at https://www.patreon.com/HughHendry and https://hughhendry.substack.com
Episodes
it's nearly one in the afternoon and i haven't read a fucking email this year.
this was supposed to be a serious day. deadlines. targets. catholic guilt. presbyterian duty stomping around the room like an angry motherfucker.
instead i'm still in my silk bruce lee pyjama bottoms, three coffees deep, magic potions mashed into yoghurt, watching my laptop quietly devour the morning.
this is a field report from inside the m...
back in march i published a bullish substack essay into a collapsing tape. software stocks were getting butchered. hyperscalers accused of losing their minds. nvidia was falling like a broken momentum trade while missiles were raining down across iran and every idiot on television suddenly became a geopolitical strategist.
but price was saying something else.
software was no longer scarce.
that was the whole point.
once...
come to the acid capitalist summer camp in st barts 2nd to 6th august.
https://hughhendry.com/acid-capital-retreat/
broadcasting from the caribbean as the acid capitalist, i try to make the uk’s sovereign problem legible without the institutional fog. no jargon. no costume. just the one signal that still cuts through the spin: price. i start with a ghost story of imperial infrastructure repurposed into l...
the strangest part of the last few weeks is not the headlines about iran, the strait of hormuz, or "financial war". the strangest part is the price. while the front pages sound confident that risk should be melting stocks down, the s&p 500 and nasdaq act like they already know how this ends, and they keep moving higher. i dig into that uncomfortable moment every investor recognises: being right on your story but...
it broke. the talks. iran, the us, all of it. the kind of weekend that’s supposed to matter. the market sells off. of course it does. and then it gets quickly bought back. clean. no hesitation. and by the time you’re ready to process it, it’s back at the all time high again.
so now you’ve got a problem. because that isn’t noise. it’s instruction. price telling you what it doesn&rsq...
a senior rates trader with the closest seat to the federal reserve looks you in the eye and says the quiet part out loud: rates are impossible to predict. that single line detonates the whole religion of macro commentary, expert priesthood, and the endless chase for “signal” in GDP tweaks, inflation prints, and breathless basis point narratives. we follow that thread to a blunt standard for intellectual ...
fourteen basis points. that’s the kind of move that gets treated like prophecy on financial television, dressed up with solemn voices and “sticky inflation” metaphors. i'm not buying it. from an apocalypse now rant delivered with a trader’s eye, i lay out a brutal macro investing filter: markets don’t move because someone “figured it out” they move because people act, react,...
A market story is only as good as the portfolio that can survive it. Hugh Hendry sat down in London to explore risk from first principles. Why playful, curious, even mischievous thinking can beat credentialed certainty, and how to build an allocation that thrives whether AI delivers a productivity super‑cycle or ushers in painful dislocation. The conversation tugs at the great plaster on the body politic : consumer ...
A faster lap by going blind sounds reckless until you hear Lando Norris say he drives better with the delta display switched off. That’s the spark for a bigger idea we explore: acid capitalism, where imagination and shared beliefs move markets more than the neatest spreadsheet ever can.
We start with the critique that more frequent shows dilute intrigue and use it to sharpen the mission: reduce noise, f...
Markets have a habit of choosing the path that hurts the most people, and this week they proved it. We open with a jolt: CarMax plunges 24%, the CEO is shown the door, and used‑car demand looks like a classic pull‑forward that left a hole in today’s sales. From there, we follow the thread across the macro tapestry: consumer sentiment hovering near crisis lows, layoffs announced at a pace that clashes with payr...
What if the cleanest read on market risk isn’t a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY’s slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, w...
When logic fails, hedges break, and the models panic.
Markets rarely behave. In this episode, Hugh Hendry unpacks why.
Exploring what happens when models flash red and logic collapses in real time. From George Gammon’s CarMax hedge to the intricacies of dating, calculating sexual market value and the Fed’s confused dance with Treasury policy, Hugh dissects how a “Z-score of 3” moment beco...
The Ricardian Equivalence, Treasury Debt, and the Modernity of Money
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Do Deficits Make You Rich?
The uncomfortable truth: fiscal stimulus creates wealth, not consumer inflation.
Sat pondering in a Caribbean bar, thinking about intelligence, the Fed, deficits, and why inflation lives in Wall Street not in your supermarket basket. When the government runs a deficit, it injects reserves into the system, an automatic overdraft with the banking system. Later it issues Treasuries that drain t...
In this acid breath of mine, I drift between the sublime and the sardonic.
I trace how America, once the debtor, became the empire, how quantitative easing rewired the flow of wealth from the cautious creditor to the restless entrepreneur.
China hoarded savings, America dis-saved, and the machine rolled on until an American administration was bold enough to call time. Gold gleams like a reflexive mem...
I began with CPI, but as usual, I ended up somewhere between Beethoven and gold. The headline CPI 3%, core the same. The whisper was higher. The market calls it “Goldilocks.” Not too hot, not too cold. I call it “Never be a dick for a tick.”
That’s how you survive this racket. Everyone obsesses over decimals while the system quietly breaks and remakes itself. The models are wrong, the Fe...
Perhaps the best, most revealing of this daily series. This is macro analysis as cabaret.
The Japanese call it, rakugoka (落語家), a man in kimono, I have no kimono, seated on a cushion performing poignant financial monologues. The entire performance relies on market imagination.
If in a hurry, skip the first 15 to 30 mins. You can't miss what follows.
American housing flickers, Kansas manufacturing hums, and ...
ʏᴇꜱᴛᴇʀᴅᴀʏ’ꜱ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜰᴇʟᴛ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴀ ᴍɪʀᴀɢᴇ. ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀʀᴋᴇᴛ ʟᴏᴏᴋᴇᴅ ᴄᴀʟᴍ, ʏᴇᴛ ᴜɴᴅᴇʀ ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴜʀꜰᴀᴄᴇ ᴛʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴀꜱ ꜱʜᴀᴋᴇꜱᴘᴇᴀʀᴇᴀɴ ᴅʀᴀᴍᴀ.
ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴅɪᴇᴅ ɪɴ ᴘʟᴀɪɴ ꜱɪɢʜᴛ ᴡʜɪʟᴇ ᴛʜᴇ ɪɴᴅᴇx ʙᴀʀᴇʟʏ ʙʟɪɴᴋᴇᴅ. ɢᴏʟᴅ ᴛʀᴇᴍᴏʀꜱ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜰᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ɪᴛꜱ ᴛʜʀᴇᴇ ꜱɪɢᴍᴀ ᴅᴀʏ,ᴛʜᴇ ᴋɪɴᴅ ᴏꜰ ᴍᴏᴠᴇ ᴛʜᴀᴛ ᴏɴʟʏ ᴠɪꜱɪᴛꜱ ᴏɴᴄᴇ ᴇᴠᴇʀʏ ꜰᴇᴡ ʏᴇᴀʀꜱ.
ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴜꜱʜ ʙᴜʀɴᴇᴅ, ᴛʜᴇ ꜱᴏ-ᴄᴀʟʟᴇᴅ “2-ɪɴ-ᴛʜᴇ-ʙᴜꜱʜ” ꜰᴀɴᴛᴀꜱʏ ɢʀᴏᴡᴛʜ ꜱᴛᴏᴄᴋꜱ ᴡᴇʀᴇ ᴛᴏʀᴄʜᴇᴅ, ᴀɴᴅ ɪ ꜱᴀᴛ ʜᴇʀᴇ ᴡᴏɴᴅᴇʀɪɴɢ, ɪꜱ ᴛʜᴇ ᴍᴀ...
October 21st, no fanfare, just me and my thoughts. I have been on X all day, and only later realized gold had fallen sharply. Some people thought I had timed my comments to take gold down, as if I could move the market. It made me laugh.
I start by questioning gold's 50 percent gain this year. If that rise is really fundamental, then there must be better trades no one is touching. That brings me to call options, far ...
Creativity, Chaos, and the Signals That Matter
Gold's ripping, stocks are ripping, but this isn't a hedge, it's a hallucination.
In today's episode, I break down the paradox of rising fear assets and euphoria trades moving in sync.
We bounce off China's Q3 GDP: if the US won't provide data, the Chinese will.
And I revisit how creativity really works, not through structure, but through a blissful surren...
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