Any Fool Could Make Money in Gold
But Only a Lunatic Could Explain It Like This
The lights flicker but they don't go out.
Today I tracked the silence. No CPI, no jobs print, no retail sales. The government is shut. The market is not. What moved was subtle. What didn’t move, the real story.
Treasury yields dipped below 4 percent momentarily. Safety or something stranger? Bank stocks cracked again. Zions and KeyCorp lit the fuse with rising provisions and sour auto and credit card loans. That wasn't just a repeat of 2023. This feels like the credit cycle got squeezed. A demographic surge hit too fast. Fifty years of migration change compressed into one. The models never caught up. Now they're breaking.
Steve Miran, the Fed’s newest voice, kept it cool. No surprise. But that calm tone is the tell. He knows the maps are wrong. They're flying with a faulty speedometer, in a world shifting too fast.
Gold hit $4,300. Not from inflation. From doubt. I revisited the Sinclair thesis. A flawed but compelling idea. What if gold is just a mirror for broken trust?
Bitcoin’s thesis is also resurfacing. Ten trillion isn’t far off if even a sliver of cash or pensions tip in.
That’s where I leave it. No script. No forecast. Just recognition.
Listen now and subscribe to ACID BREATH because when the official data disappears, the distortions are the data.
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