September 2, 2025 • 20 mins
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman are back with the Advanced Scout, an in depth look ahead at the Steelers coming opponent. This week the two preview the season opener against the Jets.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Advanced Scout back again for another season.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
I am Tom Opferman and joining me right now is
my co host on this podcast and my co host
on the DVE pregame show before Steelers games, Matt Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Matt, how about us?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Huh?
Speaker 3 (00:20):
A couple of years ago we start this podcast. Now
we're cutting it up together on DV before games.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Heck yeah, dude, loving it.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Good stuff now And this is one of the more
fun things that I do, Matt, and just full transparency.
It's always great to chat with you early in the
week because I can steal a bunch of your nuggets
throughout the week as.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
We lead into Jets Week.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
But Steelers Jets this Sunday at one o'clock to kick
things off in the twenty twenty five season. And Matt,
this this game and the double revenge angle between the
two quarterbacks. Like, I know that quarterbacks have faced their
former teams just a year after departing before, but I
don't know the last time that you know it was
(00:58):
a head to have matchup one quarterback versus his X
team the other versus X team and then having it
week one two is just insane.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I know, I definitely can't remember. It's probably happened before.
But this league, this NFL, they're pretty smart. And I
know Rogers was not officially a Pittsburgh Steeler when the
schedule came out, but someone must have had a.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Hunch, right they knew Now they were able to connect
those dots pretty easily. It's tough to look at the
Jets this year, Matt, just to be honest with everybody,
because it's a new general manager, it's a new head coach,
it's a new offensive coordinator, it's a new defensive coordinator,
and it's a new starting quarterback. Now, there is a
lot of continuity on the defensive side of the ball,
(01:42):
but there's just different brains behind it with a new
DC and Aaron Glenn's obviously a defensive guy, the new
head coach. But it's tough to really do this podcast
for the Jets because there is very there's not that
many things that are going to be carried over from
last year to this year.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Absolutely, I mean, you don't you have some inklings of
what you're gonna get. I mean, obviously this staff has
massive Lions roots, and you would think that these guys
are going to do things in a similar manner, but
you don't know that Justin Field is a heck of
a lot different than Jared Goff and it is a
defensive minded head coach, and frankly, the Jets have not
(02:22):
been a very successful organization over the years, so it's
not like, well, this is tried and true Jets football
or this is what they're trying to do. But I
do think a lot of it's going to start with
the Jet running game and also an offensive line that
they've invested a lot of picks in over the years,
which is right up my alley. And I think the
defense has a chance to be pretty formidable. But expectations
(02:44):
aren't super high for this team this year.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Well, Jets were three and five at home last year,
and they were outscored by sixty six points at home.
For the season, Pittsburgh was five to four on the
road and finished with a plus thirty three point differential
despite losing their final four regular season games. Obviously, as
we all remember, by a combined fifty two points over
the past five years. I like this stat. Matt Pittsburgh
is four and one in week one, So the Steelers
(03:08):
have done a very good job getting off to a
good start. That one blip is that San Francisco Niners
game forty nine Ers game Kenny Pickett as the startup quarterback. Yeah,
the one was ugly, but they have four wins otherwise
in the past five years. The Jets are one and
four in Week ones though, so these two teams kind
of on opposite ends of the spectrums as far as
starting hot Matt Before we get into the series history
and the breakdown of the Jets offense and defense. The
(03:30):
one stat that really stuck out to me the Steelers
went eight to zero when allowing eighteen points or fewer
in twenty twenty four, and they were two and eight
when they allowed nineteen or more. There is a very
clear line of demarcation with this Pittsburgh Steelers team last year.
Don't let up more than eighteen points.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Yeah, and I don't look at that as a good thing,
you know, like there's gonna clearly be games, And we
saw it late in the year where you face Mahomes
Lamar and Borrow twice, Blamar twice, etc. Where almost any
defense in today's NFL is going to allow more than
eighteen points real quick on the Week one numbers of
late though two. Generally speaking, the Steelers have played their
(04:09):
guys in the preseason more than they did this year,
so right, you know, I just think it's noteworthy, you know, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Maybe there was that extra level of preparedness that led
to that four in one record and Jets, you know,
thinking conversely, two of those five seasons, Matt, two of
those losses, of them being one and four, well, actually
think they actually won the one game when Rogers blew
out his achilles, ironically enough, but they didn't play Rogers
in those preseasons. They didn't really you know, subscribe to
(04:37):
that line of thinking. And they've been starting off slow,
so I think there is something to this. You know,
we're seeing teams that don't play if teams start slow
and players start slow, and teams that do play their
players get off to a better start.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah, and we even saw it with Week one in
college football too. I think defenses are going to be
way ahead offenses early in the season. And there's some
trends in this league, like the blitz percentage in Week
one is the highest it is all year, And you
just know, none of these players on either team, on
any team, have played a full game of football since
(05:11):
last year. But the offense, those o' linemen don't get
the rotate in and out, you know, I mean like
there's a fatigue factor too.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
We'd like to give a quick series history before we
dive into the Jets. The first game between these two
teams took place in November of nineteen seventy, with Pittsburgh
prevailing in that matchup. That began a nine game winning
streak for Pittsburgh against the Jets, who finally got their
first victory over the Steelers in nineteen eighty eight, But
after falling to New York in nineteen eighty eight, the
Steelers went on another winning streak, this time was a
five game winning streak, so Pittsburgh's won fourteen of these
(05:41):
team's first fifteen meetings. The most recent matchup between the
Jets and Steelers took place last season, with Pittsburgh winning
thirty seven to fifteen.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Overall.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Pittsburgh leaus the series twenty one to seven, including their
two postseason matchups, and the Steelers won both of those
playoff games against New York, including the AFC Championship game.
Following the twenty ten season, and that was the last
time the Jets went to the postseason. Fun enough, the
Steelers have lost their last two games in New York
versus the Jets, but their twenty two point victory over
the Jets last year was their highest margin of victory
all year for the twenty twenty four season, Matt, let's
(06:12):
get into the Jets defense first, because I'm of the
opinion that's the more formidable side of the ball. I
know there's a lot of excitement with Justin Fields, and
there is some talent on the offensive side, but I
think their identity is the defense. And you pointed out
that the Eagles were the only defense last year that
allowed less than New York's five point zero yards per play.
I mean, it really was a strong, strong unit for
(06:32):
a team that wasn't good last year.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
No, and let's remember a defensive minded head coach got
fired halfway through the season. Yeah, early in the season.
There was a lot of turmoil and a lot of
turnover just within who's calling plays and things of that
nature too. So it is a good defense. So there's
good players on there with a recent history of playing
really good defense. And now you bring over another defensive
(06:55):
minded head coach who got a lot out of this
Lions group, and the Lions play the highest percentage of
man coverage in the league last year, and they just
gave Sauce Cardner money. I think you're going to see
him probably follow d K like an old school Dion situation.
As much as they've paid him, I would think so.
I mean, he has a size to match up. I mean,
(07:17):
that's used to be a left right corner team for
the early part of Toss' career. But they're gonna play
man and I think they're going to be real aggressive
with that sort of thing.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
The william trust Brandon Stevens like they did DJ Reid.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Will they No, no, no, no, they should not. Brandon Stevens
had a tough time last year in Baltimore. I was
kind of shocked by that pickup. I mean, he's talented,
but he doesn't find the football well. But the Williams
brothers h Quinnen and the linebacker behind him are both
really good players. They got some early picks as edge rushers,
and again it's a good defensive mind running the show,
(07:52):
so they're definitely better on that side the ball.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
No, absolutely and I think they've got dudes at every level.
Like you mentioned the Williams brothers. You got Williams quinn
up front of hand in the dirt, and you got
Quincy at the will linebacker position, and then Sauce Gardner
is a superstar in the secondary. Let's focus on Will
McDonald though Matt he was the first round pick in
twenty twenty three. They need him to really, I think,
elevate to become one of the better edge.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Rushers in the league.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Right, Like, I feel like they've got dudes like we mentioned,
but they could just use that one extra superstar, that
one extra threat in the pass rush.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah, and I want to mention one other name too.
It's another first round pick from the year before. I
think it's the same year they took Wilson and Sauce
is Jermaine Johnson, who both these guys are talented. Johnson
was coming on like gangbusters and then got hurt, so
he's gonna be back to one hundred percent. McDonald's a
smaller guy, he's like two forty, but like per pass
(08:47):
rush snap, he's been very effective. I don't know how
many snaps he's gonna play if it's just kind of
a specialist. But their front certainly isn't bad, especially those
edge guys well and williams.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
Now Sauce Gardner we mentioned was probably going to follow
Dk Metcalf around. He did commit ten penalties last year
compared to seven over the previous two seasons. What do
you think went into him being a little more gravvy.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I don't really know, to be honest with it. He
didn't have a wonderful season. Maybe it's just it's the.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Only time he missed the first time All Pro in
his career.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Yeah, last year, two seasons.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
I still look at him as a top five corner
me too. It wasn't a lot going right around him
in New York. Who mentioned the coaching situation, and you
know that it was kind of a dysfunctional unit overall.
But I can't really I don't have anything in particular
that jumped out about his grabbiness.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
You know, here's the doomsday stat when it comes to
the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown on
any of their seventeen opening drives last year. Opening drives
of Steelers averaged just twenty two yards. Only the Patriots
and Bears were worse and if you go back six years,
the Steelers have played one hundred football games and they
are thirty second during that time with just ten opening
(10:00):
drive touchdowns. And in case you don't know, there's only
thirty two of these teams in the league. Six teams
have thirty plus such touchdowns. No other team has fewer
than fourteen, and as I mentioned, the Steelers have ten.
That's the I think biggest thing that needs to change
this year.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
MAP.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
I think we look back and if we were to
play back last year's Advanced Scout podcast at the beginning
of the year, we probably were saying they got to
use more play action with Arthur Smith.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
They don't use play action at all. They got to
do it more.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
That's the thing that we're really looking for, and we
got it now this year. I think it's very obvious
we got a score on this first drive or at
least get forty fifty yards down the field, and not
just having so many three and outs.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
No question, it's been really terrible. And it's not just
one coordinator. It's not just one quarterback. Obviously, they go
two quarterbacks left and right year to year. So there's
been a couple things I've really harped on since last
season ended of things that I'm not asking the world
for that you could they need to get better at
and one of them for sure is starting faster. Now,
(11:06):
this stat tells you all you need to know about
the offense, but the defense has been a culprit too.
Like this might shock people that if you just look
at first quarter point differential, Steelers are the worst in
the league. So like, on average, when the whistle sounds
at the end of the first quarter, the Steelers are
(11:28):
losing more so by more points than any other team
in the league last year. I mean that's they're not
burrow high flying can come back or you know, that's
a tough way for this type of team to live.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Before we move on to the Jets offense, what's some
things that you see Aaron Glenn will probably bring to
the table from Detroit on this Jets defense.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Certainly aggression, Certainly man coverage. They were more of a
zone base team before he didn't have corners, travel. Yeah, yeah, execution.
I think he's a really good coach. His teams play
hard or they hackle well, they play a lot of
man they get in your face. So yeah, I mean
(12:11):
I think those are the basics ones now.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
The Jets offense last year threw the ball at a
sixty four point one percent clip. Only the Browns, Bengals,
and Raiders threw the ball at a higher percentage. In
New York last year had the league's fewest rushing attempts
three hundred and sixty three total in twenty twenty four.
I mentioned at the top of this podcast, Matt that
things are going to be very different in some areas
for the Jets.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
This is the main area where it's going to be
the most different.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
You might see that flip, like that kind of drastic split.
It still might exist, but it's going to be run
the ball out of sixty five percent clip versus throwing
the ball at maybe the fewest amount of times in
the league.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
So obviously, teams like Baltimore and Philly are near the
top of the league in run percentage because first off,
they're good at it, and they're also winning deep into games.
You know, they're stealing the deal with a big fourth
quarter lead or whatever. I still think the Jets might
be my vote for run heaviest team of twenty twenty five.
(13:07):
I mean, they really only have one weapon pass catcher
that's an upper tier guy. Justin Fields his legs weren't
used as much as I would have liked here, but
clearly are a massive asset. They're gonna have a Lions
like rotation, probably at the running back position. They keep
investing in O line. They're gonna run the football as
(13:28):
much as they possibly can. I've been joking all week.
You know it's gonna be they play like a service again.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Wow. If it's like that, we're gonna get done with
all of our duties in like two hours time.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
I might be.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
It could be a quick game, dude. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
I think the biggest key in this game for the
Steelers defense is to just make Justin Fields throw the football.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Fields has yet to.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Eclipse seventeen passing touchdowns in a single season or average
two hundred passing yards per game in any of his
four NFL seasons. He did complete a career high sixty
five point eight percent of his passes last year in Pittsburgh,
but they were really setting up for him to, you know,
complete a lot of layups his career. His past h
yards per pass attempt excuse me, was a career low
(14:09):
seven point eight, so they were easy dink and done
kind of things that they were doing to get that
percentage up.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
Yeah, and so stopping the run is going to be
a challenge. I mean, especially no Harmon. I mean Cam
hasn't played at all. I'm going to assume that he's
paving the game.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Yeah, they kept an extra defensive lineman. I think for
this reason. And we know that early in the season
guys can wear down. You know, they're just gonna keep
coming with run, run, run, So even if they are
decent in the first half against the run, I think
the second half we'll see because it's a stamina thing.
But you're right, I mean, if it gets into a
(14:48):
drop back type of situation for the Jets, the Steelers
corners so good now, I think they'll be able to
hang with Wilson. There's no one else that's super scary,
and Fields is an unproven passers still, I mean to
say the least and taking it a step further. He
holds the ball and that's.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Where I was going next to you. Yeah, holds the ball.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
He It was forty eight percent of fields and throws
last year came three seconds or longer after the ball
was snapped, and that was the highest percentage in the
league of thirty eight qualifying quarterbacks, fields time to throw
over the past four years is the highest in the league.
So this isn't just something that he just started doing
in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
This is his Mo and Matt.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
You couple that with the young offensive line that the
Jets have, especially the tackles. In a lot of ways,
they're very similar to the Steelers at this tackle spot.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
You got a second got a.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Second year guy, yeah, first rounder in Alashanu, and now
you got Membo, this year's first round pick at right tackle.
So if they have to drop back in pass, if
the Steelers can maybe score on that opening drive like
we're hoping for and they just have to play a
little bit of catch up in this game, it's really
conducive for Watton high Smith to feast.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Absolutely. I mean, it's a talent offensive line, but it's
unproven and it's very young and some of them are
getting their first start. And even Tipman, the center is
played a ton and you know, so it comes on
the fields though more than the blocking for me is
he has to get the ball out of his hands
quickly or with this pass rush, he's gonna be on
(16:20):
the you know, getting hit a lot, and from what
I understand, and I guess this is true in the
Jets preseason games, but a huge They recognize the issue
in New York. I mean, they're really working on more
quick game. But it's not his specialty. He's more of
a see it and throw at passer, which means he
ends up holding the ball.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Well, He's going to have to throw the ball at
some point throughout the NFL season, and Garrett Wilson has
mentioned is going to be his target. Alan Lazard is
the number two receiver. You've got Josh Reynolds there, You've
got a rookie and Arian Smith. I mean, they don't
really have much in the passing game other than Wilson, No,
but they do have a lot in Wilson. He has
in the each of his three seasons in the NFL,
(17:00):
he surpassed eighty catches and had one thousand receiving yards.
He had one hundred and one catches in twenty twenty
four and that was only behind Jamar Chase, Amon Ross,
Saint Brown, and Molik Neighbors. So, I mean Garrett Wilson
gets a lot of the ball and he last year
was fed pretty healthy by Aaron Rodgers. I wonder, and
I'm interested in how he's going to adjust to an offense.
(17:21):
It's not going to throw the ball as much like
even if he has a good year, Matt, he ain't
gonna have over one hundred catches.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I can guarantee that.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
I would imagine. And he's always going to see doubles.
He's always going to see the best corners. He's a
very good player, and much like Sauce, they just gave
him a nice contract. He's a cornerstone piece going forward,
as he should be deservedly super talented. One note though,
is he's he's not Aaron Rodgers' style of receiver because
(17:52):
he's a bit of a freelancer. But that might actually
be something field that rsles fields. Yeah yeah, I mean
he'snna see it and throw it. So if it takes
him a second longer to get open or freelance, but
he does get open, then the ball comes out, that
might work fine. It's just how much are they going
to throw the ball and is he gonna be able
to handle all the attention that is definitely coming his
(18:14):
way this year.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Let's highlight some of the key matchups that you're looking
at in this game, Matt. The first one is these
Jets offensive tackles, as we just talked about versus the
Steelers edge rushers, young, very very high pedigree guys that
have a very high ceiling that they could potentially reach
with the Jets offensive line. Excuse me, with the Jets
two tackles. But it's a very stiff test right off
the bat, especially for Membo versus Watt.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
You know, we want to see what.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Move around a lot, Matt, and Watt has been very
open and saying that they want to do that this year.
Maybe not Week one, Maybe we just let Wat do
what he usually does against that rookie right tackle.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yeah, and I'll be honest, I mean I'm really high
on Membo in his future. I thought he was the
best offensive line for a reason. Yeah yeah, yeah, I
mean Campbell went ahead of him. Didn't even think they
were close. I thought Membo was a clearly better prospect.
That being said, I mean he's also a better run
blocker than Protector. I mean it's a struggle. I mean
(19:09):
there's just no way around it that this favors the
Steelers a great deal. Probably high Smith against for Shawn
who as well.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
You know, and then the other matchup, Steelers wide receiver
DK Metcalf versus the Jets are super quick.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Yeah, I think it should be noted too that Watt's
really about the best run edge setting defender in the
league too. You know, so, even if we're not even
just talking about protection, Membo versus Wat is still going
to be difficult to get to his outside shoulder in
the run.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
No doubt, Highsmith is good at stopping the run. Two,
they're both going to have to be active against the
run against a team like the Jets. DK Btcaff versus
Sauce Gardner. Though, you know, this is such a big
matchup from the Steelers side of things because they need
DK to be able to free himself from Saus a
few times throughout this game or else. I just feel
like the passing game is going to struggle this.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
There's no way around it. Is that because the Steelers
aren't wealthy at the wide receiver position. If Sauce wins
this battle, it could be a grind to score points.
I mean, I think that the Steeler run game will
probably be a work in progress, but the passing game
is going to have to go through DK, and this
(20:22):
is not an easy matchup for him at all. I mean,
Sauce is one of the few guys too that can
combat metcalf size.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
All right, Matt, well, we'll see you on Sunday morning
on DV.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
All Right, man, everyone should tune in. We have a blast.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
It's gonna be great. Matt Williamson, Tom onfram that's it
for the Advanced Scout. We'll be back before the Seahawks
game next week in the home opener. But before then,
we got Jets and Steelers kicking off in East Rutherford,
New Jersey and met Life Stadium. That is at one o'clock.
Matt and I are on the air at nine am.
Thanks for giving us a listen to the Advanced Scout.
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Advanced Scout back again for another season.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
I am Tom Opferman and joining me right now is
my co host on this podcast and my co host
on the DVE pregame show before Steelers games, Matt Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Matt, how about us?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Huh?
Speaker 3 (00:20):
A couple of years ago we start this podcast. Now
we're cutting it up together on DV before games.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Heck yeah, dude, loving it.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Good stuff now And this is one of the more
fun things that I do, Matt, and just full transparency.
It's always great to chat with you early in the
week because I can steal a bunch of your nuggets
throughout the week as.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
We lead into Jets Week.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
But Steelers Jets this Sunday at one o'clock to kick
things off in the twenty twenty five season. And Matt,
this this game and the double revenge angle between the
two quarterbacks. Like, I know that quarterbacks have faced their
former teams just a year after departing before, but I
don't know the last time that you know it was
(00:58):
a head to have matchup one quarterback versus his X
team the other versus X team and then having it
week one two is just insane.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
I know, I definitely can't remember. It's probably happened before.
But this league, this NFL, they're pretty smart. And I
know Rogers was not officially a Pittsburgh Steeler when the
schedule came out, but someone must have had a.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Hunch, right they knew Now they were able to connect
those dots pretty easily. It's tough to look at the
Jets this year, Matt, just to be honest with everybody,
because it's a new general manager, it's a new head coach,
it's a new offensive coordinator, it's a new defensive coordinator,
and it's a new starting quarterback. Now, there is a
lot of continuity on the defensive side of the ball,
(01:42):
but there's just different brains behind it with a new
DC and Aaron Glenn's obviously a defensive guy, the new
head coach. But it's tough to really do this podcast
for the Jets because there is very there's not that
many things that are going to be carried over from
last year to this year.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Absolutely, I mean, you don't you have some inklings of
what you're gonna get. I mean, obviously this staff has
massive Lions roots, and you would think that these guys
are going to do things in a similar manner, but
you don't know that Justin Field is a heck of
a lot different than Jared Goff and it is a
defensive minded head coach, and frankly, the Jets have not
(02:22):
been a very successful organization over the years, so it's
not like, well, this is tried and true Jets football
or this is what they're trying to do. But I
do think a lot of it's going to start with
the Jet running game and also an offensive line that
they've invested a lot of picks in over the years,
which is right up my alley. And I think the
defense has a chance to be pretty formidable. But expectations
(02:44):
aren't super high for this team this year.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Well, Jets were three and five at home last year,
and they were outscored by sixty six points at home.
For the season, Pittsburgh was five to four on the
road and finished with a plus thirty three point differential
despite losing their final four regular season games. Obviously, as
we all remember, by a combined fifty two points over
the past five years. I like this stat. Matt Pittsburgh
is four and one in week one, So the Steelers
(03:08):
have done a very good job getting off to a
good start. That one blip is that San Francisco Niners
game forty nine Ers game Kenny Pickett as the startup quarterback. Yeah,
the one was ugly, but they have four wins otherwise
in the past five years. The Jets are one and
four in Week ones though, so these two teams kind
of on opposite ends of the spectrums as far as
starting hot Matt Before we get into the series history
and the breakdown of the Jets offense and defense. The
(03:30):
one stat that really stuck out to me the Steelers
went eight to zero when allowing eighteen points or fewer
in twenty twenty four, and they were two and eight
when they allowed nineteen or more. There is a very
clear line of demarcation with this Pittsburgh Steelers team last year.
Don't let up more than eighteen points.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Yeah, and I don't look at that as a good thing,
you know, like there's gonna clearly be games, And we
saw it late in the year where you face Mahomes
Lamar and Borrow twice, Blamar twice, etc. Where almost any
defense in today's NFL is going to allow more than
eighteen points real quick on the Week one numbers of
late though two. Generally speaking, the Steelers have played their
(04:09):
guys in the preseason more than they did this year,
so right, you know, I just think it's noteworthy, you know, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
Maybe there was that extra level of preparedness that led
to that four in one record and Jets, you know,
thinking conversely, two of those five seasons, Matt, two of
those losses, of them being one and four, well, actually
think they actually won the one game when Rogers blew
out his achilles, ironically enough, but they didn't play Rogers
in those preseasons. They didn't really you know, subscribe to
(04:37):
that line of thinking. And they've been starting off slow,
so I think there is something to this. You know,
we're seeing teams that don't play if teams start slow
and players start slow, and teams that do play their
players get off to a better start.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Yeah, and we even saw it with Week one in
college football too. I think defenses are going to be
way ahead offenses early in the season. And there's some
trends in this league, like the blitz percentage in Week
one is the highest it is all year, And you
just know, none of these players on either team, on
any team, have played a full game of football since
(05:11):
last year. But the offense, those o' linemen don't get
the rotate in and out, you know, I mean like
there's a fatigue factor too.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
We'd like to give a quick series history before we
dive into the Jets. The first game between these two
teams took place in November of nineteen seventy, with Pittsburgh
prevailing in that matchup. That began a nine game winning
streak for Pittsburgh against the Jets, who finally got their
first victory over the Steelers in nineteen eighty eight, But
after falling to New York in nineteen eighty eight, the
Steelers went on another winning streak, this time was a
five game winning streak, so Pittsburgh's won fourteen of these
(05:41):
team's first fifteen meetings. The most recent matchup between the
Jets and Steelers took place last season, with Pittsburgh winning
thirty seven to fifteen.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Overall.
Speaker 3 (05:48):
Pittsburgh leaus the series twenty one to seven, including their
two postseason matchups, and the Steelers won both of those
playoff games against New York, including the AFC Championship game.
Following the twenty ten season, and that was the last
time the Jets went to the postseason. Fun enough, the
Steelers have lost their last two games in New York
versus the Jets, but their twenty two point victory over
the Jets last year was their highest margin of victory
all year for the twenty twenty four season, Matt, let's
(06:12):
get into the Jets defense first, because I'm of the
opinion that's the more formidable side of the ball. I
know there's a lot of excitement with Justin Fields, and
there is some talent on the offensive side, but I
think their identity is the defense. And you pointed out
that the Eagles were the only defense last year that
allowed less than New York's five point zero yards per play.
I mean, it really was a strong, strong unit for
(06:32):
a team that wasn't good last year.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
No, and let's remember a defensive minded head coach got
fired halfway through the season. Yeah, early in the season.
There was a lot of turmoil and a lot of
turnover just within who's calling plays and things of that
nature too. So it is a good defense. So there's
good players on there with a recent history of playing
really good defense. And now you bring over another defensive
(06:55):
minded head coach who got a lot out of this
Lions group, and the Lions play the highest percentage of
man coverage in the league last year, and they just
gave Sauce Cardner money. I think you're going to see
him probably follow d K like an old school Dion situation.
As much as they've paid him, I would think so.
I mean, he has a size to match up. I mean,
(07:17):
that's used to be a left right corner team for
the early part of Toss' career. But they're gonna play
man and I think they're going to be real aggressive
with that sort of thing.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
The william trust Brandon Stevens like they did DJ Reid.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Will they No, no, no, no, they should not. Brandon Stevens
had a tough time last year in Baltimore. I was
kind of shocked by that pickup. I mean, he's talented,
but he doesn't find the football well. But the Williams
brothers h Quinnen and the linebacker behind him are both
really good players. They got some early picks as edge rushers,
and again it's a good defensive mind running the show,
(07:52):
so they're definitely better on that side the ball.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
No, absolutely and I think they've got dudes at every level.
Like you mentioned the Williams brothers. You got Williams quinn
up front of hand in the dirt, and you got
Quincy at the will linebacker position, and then Sauce Gardner
is a superstar in the secondary. Let's focus on Will
McDonald though Matt he was the first round pick in
twenty twenty three. They need him to really, I think,
elevate to become one of the better edge.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
Rushers in the league.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Right, Like, I feel like they've got dudes like we mentioned,
but they could just use that one extra superstar, that
one extra threat in the pass rush.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Yeah, and I want to mention one other name too.
It's another first round pick from the year before. I
think it's the same year they took Wilson and Sauce
is Jermaine Johnson, who both these guys are talented. Johnson
was coming on like gangbusters and then got hurt, so
he's gonna be back to one hundred percent. McDonald's a
smaller guy, he's like two forty, but like per pass
(08:47):
rush snap, he's been very effective. I don't know how
many snaps he's gonna play if it's just kind of
a specialist. But their front certainly isn't bad, especially those
edge guys well and williams.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
Now Sauce Gardner we mentioned was probably going to follow
Dk Metcalf around. He did commit ten penalties last year
compared to seven over the previous two seasons. What do
you think went into him being a little more gravvy.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I don't really know, to be honest with it. He
didn't have a wonderful season. Maybe it's just it's the.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Only time he missed the first time All Pro in
his career.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Yeah, last year, two seasons.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
I still look at him as a top five corner
me too. It wasn't a lot going right around him
in New York. Who mentioned the coaching situation, and you
know that it was kind of a dysfunctional unit overall.
But I can't really I don't have anything in particular
that jumped out about his grabbiness.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
You know, here's the doomsday stat when it comes to
the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown on
any of their seventeen opening drives last year. Opening drives
of Steelers averaged just twenty two yards. Only the Patriots
and Bears were worse and if you go back six years,
the Steelers have played one hundred football games and they
are thirty second during that time with just ten opening
(10:00):
drive touchdowns. And in case you don't know, there's only
thirty two of these teams in the league. Six teams
have thirty plus such touchdowns. No other team has fewer
than fourteen, and as I mentioned, the Steelers have ten.
That's the I think biggest thing that needs to change
this year.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
MAP.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
I think we look back and if we were to
play back last year's Advanced Scout podcast at the beginning
of the year, we probably were saying they got to
use more play action with Arthur Smith.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
They don't use play action at all. They got to
do it more.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
That's the thing that we're really looking for, and we
got it now this year. I think it's very obvious
we got a score on this first drive or at
least get forty fifty yards down the field, and not
just having so many three and outs.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
No question, it's been really terrible. And it's not just
one coordinator. It's not just one quarterback. Obviously, they go
two quarterbacks left and right year to year. So there's
been a couple things I've really harped on since last
season ended of things that I'm not asking the world
for that you could they need to get better at
and one of them for sure is starting faster. Now,
(11:06):
this stat tells you all you need to know about
the offense, but the defense has been a culprit too.
Like this might shock people that if you just look
at first quarter point differential, Steelers are the worst in
the league. So like, on average, when the whistle sounds
at the end of the first quarter, the Steelers are
(11:28):
losing more so by more points than any other team
in the league last year. I mean that's they're not
burrow high flying can come back or you know, that's
a tough way for this type of team to live.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
Before we move on to the Jets offense, what's some
things that you see Aaron Glenn will probably bring to
the table from Detroit on this Jets defense.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Certainly aggression, Certainly man coverage. They were more of a
zone base team before he didn't have corners, travel. Yeah, yeah, execution.
I think he's a really good coach. His teams play
hard or they hackle well, they play a lot of
man they get in your face. So yeah, I mean
(12:11):
I think those are the basics ones now.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
The Jets offense last year threw the ball at a
sixty four point one percent clip. Only the Browns, Bengals,
and Raiders threw the ball at a higher percentage. In
New York last year had the league's fewest rushing attempts
three hundred and sixty three total in twenty twenty four.
I mentioned at the top of this podcast, Matt that
things are going to be very different in some areas
for the Jets.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
This is the main area where it's going to be
the most different.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
You might see that flip, like that kind of drastic split.
It still might exist, but it's going to be run
the ball out of sixty five percent clip versus throwing
the ball at maybe the fewest amount of times in
the league.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
So obviously, teams like Baltimore and Philly are near the
top of the league in run percentage because first off,
they're good at it, and they're also winning deep into games.
You know, they're stealing the deal with a big fourth
quarter lead or whatever. I still think the Jets might
be my vote for run heaviest team of twenty twenty five.
(13:07):
I mean, they really only have one weapon pass catcher
that's an upper tier guy. Justin Fields his legs weren't
used as much as I would have liked here, but
clearly are a massive asset. They're gonna have a Lions
like rotation, probably at the running back position. They keep
investing in O line. They're gonna run the football as
(13:28):
much as they possibly can. I've been joking all week.
You know it's gonna be they play like a service again.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Wow. If it's like that, we're gonna get done with
all of our duties in like two hours time.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
I might be.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
It could be a quick game, dude. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (13:43):
I think the biggest key in this game for the
Steelers defense is to just make Justin Fields throw the football.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
Fields has yet to.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Eclipse seventeen passing touchdowns in a single season or average
two hundred passing yards per game in any of his
four NFL seasons. He did complete a career high sixty
five point eight percent of his passes last year in Pittsburgh,
but they were really setting up for him to, you know,
complete a lot of layups his career. His past h
yards per pass attempt excuse me, was a career low
(14:09):
seven point eight, so they were easy dink and done
kind of things that they were doing to get that
percentage up.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
Yeah, and so stopping the run is going to be
a challenge. I mean, especially no Harmon. I mean Cam
hasn't played at all. I'm going to assume that he's
paving the game.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Yeah, they kept an extra defensive lineman. I think for
this reason. And we know that early in the season
guys can wear down. You know, they're just gonna keep
coming with run, run, run, So even if they are
decent in the first half against the run, I think
the second half we'll see because it's a stamina thing.
But you're right, I mean, if it gets into a
(14:48):
drop back type of situation for the Jets, the Steelers
corners so good now, I think they'll be able to
hang with Wilson. There's no one else that's super scary,
and Fields is an unproven passers still, I mean to
say the least and taking it a step further. He
holds the ball and that's.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
Where I was going next to you. Yeah, holds the ball.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
He It was forty eight percent of fields and throws
last year came three seconds or longer after the ball
was snapped, and that was the highest percentage in the
league of thirty eight qualifying quarterbacks, fields time to throw
over the past four years is the highest in the league.
So this isn't just something that he just started doing
in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
This is his Mo and Matt.
Speaker 3 (15:28):
You couple that with the young offensive line that the
Jets have, especially the tackles. In a lot of ways,
they're very similar to the Steelers at this tackle spot.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
You got a second got a.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Second year guy, yeah, first rounder in Alashanu, and now
you got Membo, this year's first round pick at right tackle.
So if they have to drop back in pass, if
the Steelers can maybe score on that opening drive like
we're hoping for and they just have to play a
little bit of catch up in this game, it's really
conducive for Watton high Smith to feast.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Absolutely. I mean, it's a talent offensive line, but it's
unproven and it's very young and some of them are
getting their first start. And even Tipman, the center is
played a ton and you know, so it comes on
the fields though more than the blocking for me is
he has to get the ball out of his hands
quickly or with this pass rush, he's gonna be on
(16:20):
the you know, getting hit a lot, and from what
I understand, and I guess this is true in the
Jets preseason games, but a huge They recognize the issue
in New York. I mean, they're really working on more
quick game. But it's not his specialty. He's more of
a see it and throw at passer, which means he
ends up holding the ball.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
Well, He's going to have to throw the ball at
some point throughout the NFL season, and Garrett Wilson has
mentioned is going to be his target. Alan Lazard is
the number two receiver. You've got Josh Reynolds there, You've
got a rookie and Arian Smith. I mean, they don't
really have much in the passing game other than Wilson, No,
but they do have a lot in Wilson. He has
in the each of his three seasons in the NFL,
(17:00):
he surpassed eighty catches and had one thousand receiving yards.
He had one hundred and one catches in twenty twenty
four and that was only behind Jamar Chase, Amon Ross,
Saint Brown, and Molik Neighbors. So, I mean Garrett Wilson
gets a lot of the ball and he last year
was fed pretty healthy by Aaron Rodgers. I wonder, and
I'm interested in how he's going to adjust to an offense.
(17:21):
It's not going to throw the ball as much like
even if he has a good year, Matt, he ain't
gonna have over one hundred catches.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
I can guarantee that.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
I would imagine. And he's always going to see doubles.
He's always going to see the best corners. He's a
very good player, and much like Sauce, they just gave
him a nice contract. He's a cornerstone piece going forward,
as he should be deservedly super talented. One note though,
is he's he's not Aaron Rodgers' style of receiver because
(17:52):
he's a bit of a freelancer. But that might actually
be something field that rsles fields. Yeah yeah, I mean
he'snna see it and throw it. So if it takes
him a second longer to get open or freelance, but
he does get open, then the ball comes out, that
might work fine. It's just how much are they going
to throw the ball and is he gonna be able
to handle all the attention that is definitely coming his
(18:14):
way this year.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
Let's highlight some of the key matchups that you're looking
at in this game, Matt. The first one is these
Jets offensive tackles, as we just talked about versus the
Steelers edge rushers, young, very very high pedigree guys that
have a very high ceiling that they could potentially reach
with the Jets offensive line. Excuse me, with the Jets
two tackles. But it's a very stiff test right off
the bat, especially for Membo versus Watt.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
You know, we want to see what.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Move around a lot, Matt, and Watt has been very
open and saying that they want to do that this year.
Maybe not Week one, Maybe we just let Wat do
what he usually does against that rookie right tackle.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
Yeah, and I'll be honest, I mean I'm really high
on Membo in his future. I thought he was the
best offensive line for a reason. Yeah yeah, yeah, I
mean Campbell went ahead of him. Didn't even think they
were close. I thought Membo was a clearly better prospect.
That being said, I mean he's also a better run
blocker than Protector. I mean it's a struggle. I mean
(19:09):
there's just no way around it that this favors the
Steelers a great deal. Probably high Smith against for Shawn
who as well.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
You know, and then the other matchup, Steelers wide receiver
DK Metcalf versus the Jets are super quick.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Yeah, I think it should be noted too that Watt's
really about the best run edge setting defender in the
league too. You know, so, even if we're not even
just talking about protection, Membo versus Wat is still going
to be difficult to get to his outside shoulder in
the run.
Speaker 3 (19:40):
No doubt, Highsmith is good at stopping the run. Two,
they're both going to have to be active against the
run against a team like the Jets. DK Btcaff versus
Sauce Gardner. Though, you know, this is such a big
matchup from the Steelers side of things because they need
DK to be able to free himself from Saus a
few times throughout this game or else. I just feel
like the passing game is going to struggle this.
Speaker 1 (20:00):
There's no way around it. Is that because the Steelers
aren't wealthy at the wide receiver position. If Sauce wins
this battle, it could be a grind to score points.
I mean, I think that the Steeler run game will
probably be a work in progress, but the passing game
is going to have to go through DK, and this
(20:22):
is not an easy matchup for him at all. I mean,
Sauce is one of the few guys too that can
combat metcalf size.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
All right, Matt, well, we'll see you on Sunday morning
on DV.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
All Right, man, everyone should tune in. We have a blast.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
It's gonna be great. Matt Williamson, Tom onfram that's it
for the Advanced Scout. We'll be back before the Seahawks
game next week in the home opener. But before then,
we got Jets and Steelers kicking off in East Rutherford,
New Jersey and met Life Stadium. That is at one o'clock.
Matt and I are on the air at nine am.
Thanks for giving us a listen to the Advanced Scout.
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