November 26, 2024 • 24 mins
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman break down the Steelers upcoming matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Steelers lost to the Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Their record now stands at eight and three. They now
travel to Cincinnati to take on the four and seven
Cincinnati Bengals, who were idle last week. And Matt, I
want to start this podcast out as we preview the
Bengals today, talking to you about you've been in football
for a long time. Have you ever seen a team
(00:28):
that's more puzzling than the Cincinnati team with how great
their quarterback has been playing and how poorly their record is.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, Dale and I have been calling them, you know,
even Steven, you know, because they're is as good as
everything they do on offense, they're almost equally bad on defense,
you know, like all their numbers are almost direct corollary
opposites and making matters worse though for them. Why they're
(00:55):
not even Stephen for the year is they're one six
in close games and they've let things get away from them,
specially defensively. And as seems to be always the case
with this team under this head coach, they start so
slow every year. They don't play any of their guys
(01:16):
in the preseason. It wasn't the case this year, but
Burrows always coming off of colon some sort of appedect.
I mean much different obviously, but like this he's playing
at m VP level. Chase is in line to be
the triple Crown winner like Saper Couple was with the receptions, yards, touchdowns.
(01:39):
Higgins is great, Chase Brown's playing well. But all those
things being said, they they produce zero point nine more
yards per game than they allowed. Basically one more yard
per game they could produce than their their enemies. If
you're in there that good on that offense, it's terrible.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, And I mean their point differential only being plus
one is another highlight of how terrible they are defensively,
because the offense is so prolific, yet they're only plus
one in their point differential. On the season, the four
teams that the Bengals have wins against are combined ten
and thirty four, so they don't really have a win
against any Marque opponent. And Matt you talked about how
(02:22):
they always start slow and kind of come on strong
in the middle of a season under Zach Taylor, and
since Joe Burrow has taken over as the quarterback. Well,
this year they started slow and they haven't been able
to get that marquee win in the middle of the
season that really kind of boosted themselves towards the playoff hunt. Again,
like in years past, they've gone to San Francisco and
gotten a big upset win to kind of boost them forward.
(02:43):
This year swept by Baltimore in two opportunities with them,
they lose the Philadelphia game and an opportunity that could
have been that big marquee win. You're playing with fire
when you start as slow as they did and try
to come on hot, and this year it's just for
whatever reason, they just can't get that big win to
get them rolling.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
And even just the body language of Chase and Burrow
like what more do you want me to do? You know,
I'm Superman in Green Lantern here, and we still can't
beat these teams And they have four wins. The four
teams they've beaten are ten and thirty one.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
It's terrible.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
That's bad.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Yeah, but they're really dangerous, right and we'll illustrate that
as we work our way through this podcast. But let's
start with the series history between these teams. The series
began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads this series all
times seventy to thirty nine. Two of those games occurred
in the postseason in twenty six and in twenty sixteen,
with the Steelers winning both of those contests. The Steelers
(03:41):
swept Cincinnati last see super quick.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Yeah, Like, how sad is it that these teams have
been playing since nineteen seventy and the Steelers have been
the postseason that much and they've only met up twice
in the postseason. This kind of dawned on me, like,
come on, Cincy, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Mean, Steelers and Ravens have met like what three or
four times? The Ravens have only been around since the
late nineties. Since he's got yeah carrying their weight a
little bit here. But as I was saying, they swept
since he last year. Pittsburgh was recently on an eleven
game winning streak between December of twenty fifteen to November
of twenty twenty. Cincinnati has won just thirteen of the
fifty games between these divisional rivals that have been played
(04:16):
in the two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty six and
eleven versus Cincinnati, including that playoff win in the twenty
sixteen season. I will say this though, Matt, this is
in a Lamar Jackson we own him situation. When it
comes to Joe Burrow. In games that Burrow has played
against the Steelers, he's got a winning record. He's three
and two, and one of those losses was his rookie
(04:37):
season where the team was kind of crap and he
was just getting his feet wet, and then he eventually
got injured, So you know, you throw that one out.
He's three and one against the Steelers. When he starts,
he's pretty successful.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
He's great. I mean, it's a different era. I mean,
he has no one feels bad for him, but he
has consistently had to overcome some of his surroundings. I
mean they really locked into being the team that was
picking first overall the year that he came out, almost
like a Sid Crosby type of situation, you know what
(05:10):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, he's a complete culture changer for the franchise. And
the body language thing that you brought up is so
true this year with him and Jamar Chase, you can
see that they're just defeated. These guys have won at
every stop of their career. They've been winning since they
got to Cincinnati, and for some reason this year it's
just not working out. We'll get to that offense in
a second, because that's part the side of the ball
(05:31):
that you have to worry about. That's the prolific side
of the ball for the Cincinnati Bengals. On the defensive side,
I don't want to oversimplify things on how to attack
this team because I feel like we say this a
lot with the opponents that the Steelers have, and they
don't always follow through with it. But you should just
be able to run the hell out of the ball
on this team. And I know we said that last
week against Cleveland, but it holds true again this week.
(05:53):
They don't bring much as far as pass rush is concerned,
and you can throw on them. But it can be
a really easy for you offensively. You can stay on
schedule really easily against this team. If you can kind
of get the running game going again, that'd be a.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Great place to start. But again, I like how you
said that, Like we've said this about a lot of opponents,
you should be able to have your way with out
blah blah blah blah blah, and it does always go
that way. It's on how the league works, clearly. You
know the like they're terrible in the red zone. Well,
what do you think they're practicing right now? You know,
I mean red zone defense? You know what I mean.
But there really aren't many things to avoid in terms
(06:32):
of game planning for this one. You know, like when
the coaches get together Monday and they put their game
plan together, I'm not sure what you avoid.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Yeah, Like they made a big deal about Jesse Bates
for example in the Falcons week, We're gonna avoid the
middle of the field because Jesse Bates can can wreck
the game. There's not a player like that other than
Trey Hendrickson probably on this defense. That's the only guy
that you have to worry about. He's got eleven and
a half sacks in eleven games this year. He leads
the league in sacks right now, but the right but
(07:02):
the next highest sacked total bio Bengals defender is from
Sam Hubbard and he has two. No one else on
this defense is more than one. So they're not getting
any pressure outside of Hendrickson.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
And to take that even a step further, just in
terms of sacks per dropback, only the Falcons who haven't
had a pass rush in a decade. And the Panthers,
who I bet half our listeners couldn't even tell you
who their defensive line is anymore or worse. Yes, Andrew
the sack leader on your team, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Yeah, that's four point five percent of opposing dropbacks that
Cincinnati records a sack on. Yeah, it's remarkable how great
Hendrickson is in that area, yet how bad the team
is there. They have just nineteen sacks all year long.
So maybe this won't be a game that we've seen
Russell Wilson in the offensive line have the past couple
of weeks, Matt, where they get a lot of pressure
(07:52):
on you, and Russell Wilson's getting beat up a lot.
There's not that much time to pass the ball. Shouldn't
be the case in this game against Cincinnati, unless you know,
it does that thing where we predict one thing and
everything points to it being right that way, and for
whatever reason, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Huver can bind for
ten sacks total in the game. But it looks to
me on paper that pass protection should hold up decently
(08:15):
well against this team.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Yeah, I meant to say it's the big of this show.
But I want to stress how the Bengals have been built.
So Burrow and Chase fell in their lap and they
they're awesome, and Higgins is really good, and to their credit,
they built a pretty nice defense through free agency. They
went out and got DJ Reeder, Hendrickson's a poster child
(08:38):
for that, Mike Hilton, a lot of guys they got
out from got from outside the organization. They spent money
on defense because their offense was young and cheap and
ultra talented. Wisely, they realized, we're gonna have to pay Burrow,
We're gonna have to pay Chase. So we're drafting defense
like crazy the last three years or so. But they
(08:58):
haven't hit on anybody, you know, So so all these
high picks are don't really mean much staying off for them,
right right.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Here's a stat that I love that you brought to
the table, Matt, that I think is going to be
really telling in this game. It's kind of a worst
on worst stat. It's about turning sets of downs into
new sets of downs. The Steelers turn a set of
down into a new set of down or a touchdown
at a sixty eight percent rate only six offenses in
the league are worse. However, the Bengals defense allows that
to happen at a seventy five percent clip. Only the
(09:30):
Jags and the Panthers are worse. So the Steelers are
having a lot of trouble sustaining drives throughout football games.
That's no secret. The Steelers are having a lot of
trouble getting into the end zone. They went seven straight
quarters before that fourth quarter last game before finally getting
into the end zone against the Browns, So there's no
secret that they've struggled in this area. This is a
good team now to have to go up against to
(09:50):
kind of correct yourself when it comes to those moving
the chains, getting in the end zone, sustaining drives.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Yes, and I'm gonna take it a step further. You
already planned on and highlighted this part too. But everyone,
all the big talk over the last week is Steeler
red zone is so terrible they should put fields in
blah blah blah blah. Whatever you feel about that. The
fact is only the Giants and Cowboys have are worse
in the red zone this year than the Steelers. Right, Okay, well,
(10:19):
only Dallas is worse than the Bengals who allow a
seventy point five conversion rate in the red zone and
that is so terrible, But over the last three weeks
it's an eighty five point seven. That's shocking.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
And it's almost like one hundred percent of the time
you're in the red zone, you're scoring on them. That's
that's that doesn't just like you're letting them. Yes, I'm
sure you had to go back and check your math
on that like a thousand times. But they cannot be
eighty five percent of the time.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
There's no way over three games, right, And I think
the Raiders are one of those team. I mean like
they already. I mean the Ravens were won, the Chargers
are won, and the Raiders were won, So one good team.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
You know, you had noted too that the tight ends
can produce big on the Cincinnati defense. And it's funny.
We've actually seen Firemouth have some of his biggest games
of his career against Cincinnati teams.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Good point, he went crazy in the best game was.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Nuts last year.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Yeah that city, yep.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
But that's the thing. You can attack on them, right, Like,
it's not something that's changed drastically this year where they're
all of a sudden better at stopping tight ends.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Like, I'm in the process of digging up those numbers,
but I can assure you, like, just from a fantasy perspective,
when you put your tight end in the lineup, what's
the opponent against tight ends? Well, I think they're like
thirty two, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
And Wilson has been using the tight ends more. I
think people are kind of ignoring that and still saying, hey,
we need more tight ends, more tight end usage. Well,
there's fifteen targets and fourteen targets a piece. Washington's got
fifteen and Firemuth's got fourteen. Since Wilson has been put
in the position, there is more usage of the tight
end happening. It's it's just not focused towards one of them.
(11:55):
They're kind of split in the duty.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I just said, because Washington's come on, my new favorite
player on the team. I mean, like, I think right too,
they've realized, yeah, right, Like this guy is a unique specimen.
Why aren't we using him all the time? You know?
So I think that that's a big part of it. Also,
I'm interested in you go back to the red zone
real quick. If you put out a back Pickens, Williams, Washington,
(12:21):
Friar moves. You gotta be able to find, yeah, a
small defender to post up, you know what I mean?
Or go up and get it. And oh, by the way,
Pickens has more end zone targets than any wide receiver
in the league.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I mentioned that you're gonna be able to run the
ball against this team where you hope you'll be able
to run the ball. Cincinnati gives up one hundred and
twenty nine point eight yards on the ground per game.
That's twenty first in the league. What do you make
of the Steelers rushing offense though recently matt because they've
gone over one hundred yards the past three weeks since
the bye week, But when you look at some of
the numbers and yards per carry, it tells a different story.
(13:01):
Nausey in particular, has just one hundred and fifty seven
rushing yards in three games since the bye. It's averaging
two point nine yards per carry during that stretch. And
while the Steelers are averaging on the year one hundred
and thirty five point two rushing yards per game, which
is eighth best, three point nine yards per carry is
only better than the Raiders and the Cowboys, So they
do it by a lot of volume. They get up
to that one hundred and thirty five mark. But in
(13:25):
recent weeks, you know, you're seeing three point three yards
per carry against the Browns, three point six against the Ravens.
Something's just not really clicking in that running game. And
this is another opponent where I'm kind of looking at it.
I'm licking my chops, like you should be able to
go for four five yards per carry against them.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
I'm not just gonna blame nausey because he doesn't deserve that.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
He's in the back He's been getting hit in the
backfield a lot these past couple of.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Weeks a lot. But I also think he looks more sluggish,
like the rigors of the season are starting to wear
on him. Because I thought he looked as explosive as
he ever has right before that last three games. It's
kind of the opposite. And maybe there's injury. I don't
know about whatever, but I think Warren looks better than ever.
And that's the thing though. To me, the biggest problem
(14:11):
with the offense is a running game isn't consistent enough.
You know, we can talk about middlefield, passing, red zone.
Who's the number two receiver. But if you ran the
ball with a little more consistency down after down, a
lot of those problems would go away. Because I think
you just mentioned this, but they're seventh most in the
league of ten or more yard runs, you know, Like,
(14:31):
so they break off some big ones, but you still
only average three point nine.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Like that doesn't up, No, it does not. You mentioned
Warren of late. He has a streak of five games
in a row with fifty five plus scrimmage yards, so
he has definitely come on strong where Nause has faded
a little bit. But you're right, there isn't just a
consistency about the running game. It's it's you get these
big fifteen yard angry runs from Nause, and then it's
a couple of like two yard nothing runs in a row,
(14:58):
and then it's back to like a ten yard Warren run,
and then it's like five in a row where they
struggle to even get back to the line of scrimmage.
Just a solid like four or five yards per carry
would go a long way in how Arthur Smith in
this offense is supposed to operate exactly.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I don't have a lot more to add to it,
but that that should really be job number one. I
think of this offense in this long break is what's
our bread and Mike Pursuer and I do a show
every Thursday with Merrill Hodge and obviously Merrill it's big
on the run game shocker, you know, but it's a
chuck nole thing. And he said, when the offense is struggling,
(15:35):
what we would always do is pick our three, our
two or three bread and butter runs. What are the
plays we're best at and everyone's most comfortable with. And
let's just start over like it's kindergarten and start running those,
you know, and get back to being consistent with those.
Then go from there.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Let's take a look at the Cincinnati offense. This is
the side of the ball that you got to worry about.
They produce five point seven yards per play on the season.
They throw the ball sixty three point five percent of
their offensive snaps. That's the sixth highest percentage in the league.
They're throwing it at sixty seven point nine percent over
their past three games. They're gonna throw it even more
than that. I think in this game against the Steelers, don't.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
You Yeah, I do.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I don't think the only thing that's pass protection, right,
that's the only thing that you'd worry about.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Of course, if Burrow's getting killed. We're recording this on
Tuesday night as usual. I don't know what Orlando Brown's
status is. I'm not exactly sure what Highsmith's status is.
But Mims is a really good prospect, and I use
that word prospect on purpose.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Yeah, first round pick.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
They have to leave him alone on Yeah, really really talented,
I mean, crazy body. I mean, he's got a bright future.
But if the left tackle situation is so bad that
you have to leave him alone on what? But I
thought the same thing last week. That's what I I mean,
I made it. We kind of do this one we
could go, I said, I think, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
The same thing with the running game, right, when the
defense is weak and we should run all over them
and it never happens. It's like when there's tackles are
weak and it looks like, you know, chopped liver for
what it. It doesn't add up that way sometimes.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Right, And so the pass rush could certainly get them
out of throws rows roads Row throw if it's a
close game, but they throws rows, rows, grow throw, that's
what they do.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Yeah, and honestly, that pass rush has been underwhelming I
think for the Steelers in the past couple I mean,
I think one of the biggest problems defensively against the
Browns Matt was There's just was not enough pressure on
Jameis Winston throughout that game. He had way too much
time back there. It was way too comfortable of a
game for a quarterback that you just throw in a
little bit of uncomfortability, he's going to make a mistake.
(17:43):
I mean, look at the end of the game, he
turned the ball over twice in a matter of like
three minutes because you started finally getting some pressure on him.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think on this show last week,
I predicted the Steelers are gonna get twelve sacks in
Ohio these next two weeks. Wow, they's got a lot
of work to do to get them.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
So the passing yards per game for Cincinnati is at
two hundred and sixty two point seven. That is the
highest in the NFL, and Cincinnati is being blitzed on
twenty one percent of its dropbacks. Only Miammi and Dallasy
a lower percentage of blitz Is that just because Burrow's
too good to blitz if you send too many guys
towards him, he's going to burn you every time.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Yeah, he's kind of turned into a microprocessor there and
knows where everything's coming and gets it out and you
can get pressure on them without blitz you know they're there.
O line is not so great.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Is he the best quarterback in the NFL this year? Yes,
I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
That's a bold statement, but yes, but I agree. I mean,
if I'm starting a team, it's my homes that's off
the conversation. But I think it's between Alan Lamar and
Burrow is who's having the best year. And I also
think they're the three of the four best as well.
I think Burrow's having the best year and he kind
(19:02):
of started slow.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
His numbers to this point are truly remarkable. And I
saw somebody compile this where he has played eleven games
or they're through eleven weeks or whatever it was, and
they put what Burrow has put up, and then they
said that there's only been like four other quarterbacks a
couple of them did it more than once, that have
these numbers passing yards, touchdowns, lack of interceptions to this
(19:24):
point in a season. And they attached the finishing record
for those teams and Matt they were all like tom
Brady's sixteen and oh Patriots teams, tom Brady's fourteen and two,
Aaron Rodgers is fourteen and two with the Packers. Mahomes
went fourteen to two once. Doing this with the Chiefs, Like,
not only are you a good football team, if you're
playing as well as Burrow is, you're the best team
in the NFL almost every time. It's truly an anomaly
(19:47):
that they're struggling this much and he's playing that great.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
So back to this team being even steven Okay, so
let's say that they do have the best quarterback play
thus far of the year. Really really strong argument for that. Well,
all the all the quarterbacks against the Bengals are like
fifth best, and that's like Minshew in Winston, you know,
like theyre so they elevate the quarterbacks they play so
(20:16):
much that it nullifies the greatness of Burrow, which has
to be remarkably frustrated.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Now around Burrow, we obviously know the receivers will get
to them. In a second. Chase Brown you mentioned earlier,
is not having that terrible of a year despite the
fact that they don't really use the run as much
as you know they maybe have in the past with
Joe Mixon.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
Yeah, and he's come on heavy the last couple of
weeks too. He's really starting to put up numbers. He's explosive,
he's good in the passing game. He's starting to get
his legs under him really at the NFL level, you know.
I mean, he's the full time guy now. Sometimes other
backs don't even see the field really over the course
of the game. So I'm not saying he's a star,
(20:56):
but he's going to be a thorn in the Steelers
side for a while. He's a good player.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Fourteen point nine percent of Cincinnati's rush attempts have been
stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's the
seventh highest percentage in the league. So that's something to
keep an eye on. Maybe some tackles for a loss
or no gains for the Steelers defense against the Cincinnati
run game. Do you think Porter just takes Jamar Chase?
Is that the obvious matchup.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
I kind of get the hunch that they're gonna play
sides just because it makes it a little less confusing,
less chance of a coverage bust and Higgins is having
a heck of a year or two.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I agree with you that Higgins presents enough of a
challenge where you can think about that where you can say, Okay,
maybe it's logical to just not travel and whatever receiver
ends up opposite to Joey, that's good with us. We're
gonna need Joey against them. But I don't know, Matt,
just something really scares me about Jamar Chase. As good
as T Higgins is, Jamar Chase, I think is just
(21:54):
in a completely different stratosphere. A top three receiver in
the NFL. He might be the best receiver in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
One agree, Yeah, I mean I think Higgins is a
top notch two that would be perfect opposite Pickens or
maybe a Charger.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
He could be a fringe one somewhere.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
Yeah, yeah, But Chase is special. I mean, I don't
think that's a scene at all to say he's the
best wide receiver in the league.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Right now, Kasiki's starting to get some more looks from Burrow, isn't.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
He he is? He really got a lot when Higgins
was out because Gaseki isn't the tight end. I mean,
he's a big slot. He doesn't block anybody. He's skinny,
but he's really athletic former volleyball player, and he's been
a nice pickup for him. He's just one more weapon.
They got a lot of weapons per EPA.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
The Steelers have faced the easiest slate of offenses in
the league thus far. That will not be the case
on Sunday. That will not be the case moving forward
with this team schedule. Before we get out of here, Matt,
some key matchups to highlight. We just talked about this one.
It might not be the case most of the time,
but they'll have theirm mind Imano moments for sure. It's
Jamar Chase versus Joey Porter Jr.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I mean that's best verse best.
Chase is better though.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
No offense to Joey Porter Jr. Because you say that
against Pats Sertain's lining up a opposite him, Chase is better,
Sauce Gardner, Chase is better. It's just the way it is.
He is that good. And finally you have Dan Moore
versus Bengals defensive Entrey Hendrickson. Will Hendrickson move around or
do you think that'll mainly be a more matchup?
Speaker 1 (23:32):
I need to double check his alignment. But just off
the top of my head, I think he's predominantly on
Dan Moore. I mean, yes, every team moves or ends
around more than the Steelers, but Hendrickson almost always comes
off the quarterbacks blind side, well the Dike battle before,
and it shouldn't be that hard to help him too.
But that's what every team says. And he still has
(23:53):
a lot of sacks.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
That's the thing. Like, he's got to be getting a
lot of attention. He's got to be facing doubles and
Max Protext and he's finding a way to get to
the quarterback. That being said, if more if Darnell Washington,
the help that anybody provides Dan Moore, stopping Trey Hendrickson
is a huge key in this game. He's the only
thing that can really affect the game defensively for Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
He's the game changer absolutely. I mean much more so
than Garrett was a week ago. I'm not saying he's
better than Garrett. I'm just saying the brownside other stuff,
you know what I mean, I get what you say. Yeah, yeah, yeah, all.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Right, that'll do it for us in the Advanced Scout
Thanks has always for giving us a listen Steelers and
Bengals On Sunday at one o'clock, Matt is on the
air with the pre pre show on DV with Tim Benz,
and then at eleven am, the Steelers Audio Network pregame
kicks in kick off at one with Rob King, Craig Wolfley,
Max Starks, and Missy Matthews. Matt and I will be
(24:48):
back again next week with another Advanced Scout
We got some work to do. This is the Advanced
Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
The Steelers lost to the Browns on Thursday Night Football.
Their record now stands at eight and three. They now
travel to Cincinnati to take on the four and seven
Cincinnati Bengals, who were idle last week. And Matt, I
want to start this podcast out as we preview the
Bengals today, talking to you about you've been in football
for a long time. Have you ever seen a team
(00:28):
that's more puzzling than the Cincinnati team with how great
their quarterback has been playing and how poorly their record is.
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Yeah, Dale and I have been calling them, you know,
even Steven, you know, because they're is as good as
everything they do on offense, they're almost equally bad on defense,
you know, like all their numbers are almost direct corollary
opposites and making matters worse though for them. Why they're
(00:55):
not even Stephen for the year is they're one six
in close games and they've let things get away from them,
specially defensively. And as seems to be always the case
with this team under this head coach, they start so
slow every year. They don't play any of their guys
(01:16):
in the preseason. It wasn't the case this year, but
Burrows always coming off of colon some sort of appedect.
I mean much different obviously, but like this he's playing
at m VP level. Chase is in line to be
the triple Crown winner like Saper Couple was with the receptions, yards, touchdowns.
(01:39):
Higgins is great, Chase Brown's playing well. But all those
things being said, they they produce zero point nine more
yards per game than they allowed. Basically one more yard
per game they could produce than their their enemies. If
you're in there that good on that offense, it's terrible.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah, And I mean their point differential only being plus
one is another highlight of how terrible they are defensively,
because the offense is so prolific, yet they're only plus
one in their point differential. On the season, the four
teams that the Bengals have wins against are combined ten
and thirty four, so they don't really have a win
against any Marque opponent. And Matt you talked about how
(02:22):
they always start slow and kind of come on strong
in the middle of a season under Zach Taylor, and
since Joe Burrow has taken over as the quarterback. Well,
this year they started slow and they haven't been able
to get that marquee win in the middle of the
season that really kind of boosted themselves towards the playoff hunt. Again,
like in years past, they've gone to San Francisco and
gotten a big upset win to kind of boost them forward.
(02:43):
This year swept by Baltimore in two opportunities with them,
they lose the Philadelphia game and an opportunity that could
have been that big marquee win. You're playing with fire
when you start as slow as they did and try
to come on hot, and this year it's just for
whatever reason, they just can't get that big win to
get them rolling.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
And even just the body language of Chase and Burrow
like what more do you want me to do? You know,
I'm Superman in Green Lantern here, and we still can't
beat these teams And they have four wins. The four
teams they've beaten are ten and thirty one.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
It's terrible.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
That's bad.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Yeah, but they're really dangerous, right and we'll illustrate that
as we work our way through this podcast. But let's
start with the series history between these teams. The series
began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads this series all
times seventy to thirty nine. Two of those games occurred
in the postseason in twenty six and in twenty sixteen,
with the Steelers winning both of those contests. The Steelers
(03:41):
swept Cincinnati last see super quick.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Yeah, Like, how sad is it that these teams have
been playing since nineteen seventy and the Steelers have been
the postseason that much and they've only met up twice
in the postseason. This kind of dawned on me, like,
come on, Cincy, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
Mean, Steelers and Ravens have met like what three or
four times? The Ravens have only been around since the
late nineties. Since he's got yeah carrying their weight a
little bit here. But as I was saying, they swept
since he last year. Pittsburgh was recently on an eleven
game winning streak between December of twenty fifteen to November
of twenty twenty. Cincinnati has won just thirteen of the
fifty games between these divisional rivals that have been played
(04:16):
in the two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty six and
eleven versus Cincinnati, including that playoff win in the twenty
sixteen season. I will say this though, Matt, this is
in a Lamar Jackson we own him situation. When it
comes to Joe Burrow. In games that Burrow has played
against the Steelers, he's got a winning record. He's three
and two, and one of those losses was his rookie
(04:37):
season where the team was kind of crap and he
was just getting his feet wet, and then he eventually
got injured, So you know, you throw that one out.
He's three and one against the Steelers. When he starts,
he's pretty successful.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
He's great. I mean, it's a different era. I mean,
he has no one feels bad for him, but he
has consistently had to overcome some of his surroundings. I
mean they really locked into being the team that was
picking first overall the year that he came out, almost
like a Sid Crosby type of situation, you know what
(05:10):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Yeah, he's a complete culture changer for the franchise. And
the body language thing that you brought up is so
true this year with him and Jamar Chase, you can
see that they're just defeated. These guys have won at
every stop of their career. They've been winning since they
got to Cincinnati, and for some reason this year it's
just not working out. We'll get to that offense in
a second, because that's part the side of the ball
(05:31):
that you have to worry about. That's the prolific side
of the ball for the Cincinnati Bengals. On the defensive side,
I don't want to oversimplify things on how to attack
this team because I feel like we say this a
lot with the opponents that the Steelers have, and they
don't always follow through with it. But you should just
be able to run the hell out of the ball
on this team. And I know we said that last
week against Cleveland, but it holds true again this week.
(05:53):
They don't bring much as far as pass rush is concerned,
and you can throw on them. But it can be
a really easy for you offensively. You can stay on
schedule really easily against this team. If you can kind
of get the running game going again, that'd be a.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Great place to start. But again, I like how you
said that, Like we've said this about a lot of opponents,
you should be able to have your way with out
blah blah blah blah blah, and it does always go
that way. It's on how the league works, clearly. You
know the like they're terrible in the red zone. Well,
what do you think they're practicing right now? You know,
I mean red zone defense? You know what I mean.
But there really aren't many things to avoid in terms
(06:32):
of game planning for this one. You know, like when
the coaches get together Monday and they put their game
plan together, I'm not sure what you avoid.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Yeah, Like they made a big deal about Jesse Bates
for example in the Falcons week, We're gonna avoid the
middle of the field because Jesse Bates can can wreck
the game. There's not a player like that other than
Trey Hendrickson probably on this defense. That's the only guy
that you have to worry about. He's got eleven and
a half sacks in eleven games this year. He leads
the league in sacks right now, but the right but
(07:02):
the next highest sacked total bio Bengals defender is from
Sam Hubbard and he has two. No one else on
this defense is more than one. So they're not getting
any pressure outside of Hendrickson.
Speaker 1 (07:12):
And to take that even a step further, just in
terms of sacks per dropback, only the Falcons who haven't
had a pass rush in a decade. And the Panthers,
who I bet half our listeners couldn't even tell you
who their defensive line is anymore or worse. Yes, Andrew
the sack leader on your team, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
Yeah, that's four point five percent of opposing dropbacks that
Cincinnati records a sack on. Yeah, it's remarkable how great
Hendrickson is in that area, yet how bad the team
is there. They have just nineteen sacks all year long.
So maybe this won't be a game that we've seen
Russell Wilson in the offensive line have the past couple
of weeks, Matt, where they get a lot of pressure
(07:52):
on you, and Russell Wilson's getting beat up a lot.
There's not that much time to pass the ball. Shouldn't
be the case in this game against Cincinnati, unless you know,
it does that thing where we predict one thing and
everything points to it being right that way, and for
whatever reason, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Huver can bind for
ten sacks total in the game. But it looks to
me on paper that pass protection should hold up decently
(08:15):
well against this team.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Yeah, I meant to say it's the big of this show.
But I want to stress how the Bengals have been built.
So Burrow and Chase fell in their lap and they
they're awesome, and Higgins is really good, and to their credit,
they built a pretty nice defense through free agency. They
went out and got DJ Reeder, Hendrickson's a poster child
(08:38):
for that, Mike Hilton, a lot of guys they got
out from got from outside the organization. They spent money
on defense because their offense was young and cheap and
ultra talented. Wisely, they realized, we're gonna have to pay Burrow,
We're gonna have to pay Chase. So we're drafting defense
like crazy the last three years or so. But they
(08:58):
haven't hit on anybody, you know, So so all these
high picks are don't really mean much staying off for them,
right right.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Here's a stat that I love that you brought to
the table, Matt, that I think is going to be
really telling in this game. It's kind of a worst
on worst stat. It's about turning sets of downs into
new sets of downs. The Steelers turn a set of
down into a new set of down or a touchdown
at a sixty eight percent rate only six offenses in
the league are worse. However, the Bengals defense allows that
to happen at a seventy five percent clip. Only the
(09:30):
Jags and the Panthers are worse. So the Steelers are
having a lot of trouble sustaining drives throughout football games.
That's no secret. The Steelers are having a lot of
trouble getting into the end zone. They went seven straight
quarters before that fourth quarter last game before finally getting
into the end zone against the Browns, So there's no
secret that they've struggled in this area. This is a
good team now to have to go up against to
(09:50):
kind of correct yourself when it comes to those moving
the chains, getting in the end zone, sustaining drives.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
Yes, and I'm gonna take it a step further. You
already planned on and highlighted this part too. But everyone,
all the big talk over the last week is Steeler
red zone is so terrible they should put fields in
blah blah blah blah. Whatever you feel about that. The
fact is only the Giants and Cowboys have are worse
in the red zone this year than the Steelers. Right, Okay, well,
(10:19):
only Dallas is worse than the Bengals who allow a
seventy point five conversion rate in the red zone and
that is so terrible, But over the last three weeks
it's an eighty five point seven. That's shocking.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
And it's almost like one hundred percent of the time
you're in the red zone, you're scoring on them. That's
that's that doesn't just like you're letting them. Yes, I'm
sure you had to go back and check your math
on that like a thousand times. But they cannot be
eighty five percent of the time.
Speaker 1 (10:46):
There's no way over three games, right, And I think
the Raiders are one of those team. I mean like
they already. I mean the Ravens were won, the Chargers
are won, and the Raiders were won, So one good team.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
You know, you had noted too that the tight ends
can produce big on the Cincinnati defense. And it's funny.
We've actually seen Firemouth have some of his biggest games
of his career against Cincinnati teams.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Good point, he went crazy in the best game was.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Nuts last year.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Yeah that city, yep.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
But that's the thing. You can attack on them, right, Like,
it's not something that's changed drastically this year where they're
all of a sudden better at stopping tight ends.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Like, I'm in the process of digging up those numbers,
but I can assure you, like, just from a fantasy perspective,
when you put your tight end in the lineup, what's
the opponent against tight ends? Well, I think they're like
thirty two, you know what I mean.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
And Wilson has been using the tight ends more. I
think people are kind of ignoring that and still saying, hey,
we need more tight ends, more tight end usage. Well,
there's fifteen targets and fourteen targets a piece. Washington's got
fifteen and Firemuth's got fourteen. Since Wilson has been put
in the position, there is more usage of the tight
end happening. It's it's just not focused towards one of them.
(11:55):
They're kind of split in the duty.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
I just said, because Washington's come on, my new favorite
player on the team. I mean, like, I think right too,
they've realized, yeah, right, Like this guy is a unique specimen.
Why aren't we using him all the time? You know?
So I think that that's a big part of it. Also,
I'm interested in you go back to the red zone
real quick. If you put out a back Pickens, Williams, Washington,
(12:21):
Friar moves. You gotta be able to find, yeah, a
small defender to post up, you know what I mean?
Or go up and get it. And oh, by the way,
Pickens has more end zone targets than any wide receiver
in the league.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I mentioned that you're gonna be able to run the
ball against this team where you hope you'll be able
to run the ball. Cincinnati gives up one hundred and
twenty nine point eight yards on the ground per game.
That's twenty first in the league. What do you make
of the Steelers rushing offense though recently matt because they've
gone over one hundred yards the past three weeks since
the bye week, But when you look at some of
the numbers and yards per carry, it tells a different story.
(13:01):
Nausey in particular, has just one hundred and fifty seven
rushing yards in three games since the bye. It's averaging
two point nine yards per carry during that stretch. And
while the Steelers are averaging on the year one hundred
and thirty five point two rushing yards per game, which
is eighth best, three point nine yards per carry is
only better than the Raiders and the Cowboys, So they
do it by a lot of volume. They get up
to that one hundred and thirty five mark. But in
(13:25):
recent weeks, you know, you're seeing three point three yards
per carry against the Browns, three point six against the Ravens.
Something's just not really clicking in that running game. And
this is another opponent where I'm kind of looking at it.
I'm licking my chops, like you should be able to
go for four five yards per carry against them.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
I'm not just gonna blame nausey because he doesn't deserve that.
Speaker 2 (13:45):
He's in the back He's been getting hit in the
backfield a lot these past couple of.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Weeks a lot. But I also think he looks more sluggish,
like the rigors of the season are starting to wear
on him. Because I thought he looked as explosive as
he ever has right before that last three games. It's
kind of the opposite. And maybe there's injury. I don't
know about whatever, but I think Warren looks better than ever.
And that's the thing though. To me, the biggest problem
(14:11):
with the offense is a running game isn't consistent enough.
You know, we can talk about middlefield, passing, red zone.
Who's the number two receiver. But if you ran the
ball with a little more consistency down after down, a
lot of those problems would go away. Because I think
you just mentioned this, but they're seventh most in the
league of ten or more yard runs, you know, Like,
(14:31):
so they break off some big ones, but you still
only average three point nine.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Like that doesn't up, No, it does not. You mentioned
Warren of late. He has a streak of five games
in a row with fifty five plus scrimmage yards, so
he has definitely come on strong where Nause has faded
a little bit. But you're right, there isn't just a
consistency about the running game. It's it's you get these
big fifteen yard angry runs from Nause, and then it's
a couple of like two yard nothing runs in a row,
(14:58):
and then it's back to like a ten yard Warren run,
and then it's like five in a row where they
struggle to even get back to the line of scrimmage.
Just a solid like four or five yards per carry
would go a long way in how Arthur Smith in
this offense is supposed to operate exactly.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I don't have a lot more to add to it,
but that that should really be job number one. I
think of this offense in this long break is what's
our bread and Mike Pursuer and I do a show
every Thursday with Merrill Hodge and obviously Merrill it's big
on the run game shocker, you know, but it's a
chuck nole thing. And he said, when the offense is struggling,
(15:35):
what we would always do is pick our three, our
two or three bread and butter runs. What are the
plays we're best at and everyone's most comfortable with. And
let's just start over like it's kindergarten and start running those,
you know, and get back to being consistent with those.
Then go from there.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Let's take a look at the Cincinnati offense. This is
the side of the ball that you got to worry about.
They produce five point seven yards per play on the season.
They throw the ball sixty three point five percent of
their offensive snaps. That's the sixth highest percentage in the league.
They're throwing it at sixty seven point nine percent over
their past three games. They're gonna throw it even more
than that. I think in this game against the Steelers, don't.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
You Yeah, I do.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
I don't think the only thing that's pass protection, right,
that's the only thing that you'd worry about.
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Of course, if Burrow's getting killed. We're recording this on
Tuesday night as usual. I don't know what Orlando Brown's
status is. I'm not exactly sure what Highsmith's status is.
But Mims is a really good prospect, and I use
that word prospect on purpose.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
Yeah, first round pick.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
They have to leave him alone on Yeah, really really talented,
I mean, crazy body. I mean, he's got a bright future.
But if the left tackle situation is so bad that
you have to leave him alone on what? But I
thought the same thing last week. That's what I I mean,
I made it. We kind of do this one we
could go, I said, I think, Yeah, it's.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
The same thing with the running game, right, when the
defense is weak and we should run all over them
and it never happens. It's like when there's tackles are
weak and it looks like, you know, chopped liver for
what it. It doesn't add up that way sometimes.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Right, And so the pass rush could certainly get them
out of throws rows roads Row throw if it's a
close game, but they throws rows, rows, grow throw, that's
what they do.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Yeah, and honestly, that pass rush has been underwhelming I
think for the Steelers in the past couple I mean,
I think one of the biggest problems defensively against the
Browns Matt was There's just was not enough pressure on
Jameis Winston throughout that game. He had way too much
time back there. It was way too comfortable of a
game for a quarterback that you just throw in a
little bit of uncomfortability, he's going to make a mistake.
(17:43):
I mean, look at the end of the game, he
turned the ball over twice in a matter of like
three minutes because you started finally getting some pressure on him.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think on this show last week,
I predicted the Steelers are gonna get twelve sacks in
Ohio these next two weeks. Wow, they's got a lot
of work to do to get them.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
So the passing yards per game for Cincinnati is at
two hundred and sixty two point seven. That is the
highest in the NFL, and Cincinnati is being blitzed on
twenty one percent of its dropbacks. Only Miammi and Dallasy
a lower percentage of blitz Is that just because Burrow's
too good to blitz if you send too many guys
towards him, he's going to burn you every time.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Yeah, he's kind of turned into a microprocessor there and
knows where everything's coming and gets it out and you
can get pressure on them without blitz you know they're there.
O line is not so great.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Is he the best quarterback in the NFL this year? Yes,
I agree with you.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
That's a bold statement, but yes, but I agree. I mean,
if I'm starting a team, it's my homes that's off
the conversation. But I think it's between Alan Lamar and
Burrow is who's having the best year. And I also
think they're the three of the four best as well.
I think Burrow's having the best year and he kind
(19:02):
of started slow.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
His numbers to this point are truly remarkable. And I
saw somebody compile this where he has played eleven games
or they're through eleven weeks or whatever it was, and
they put what Burrow has put up, and then they
said that there's only been like four other quarterbacks a
couple of them did it more than once, that have
these numbers passing yards, touchdowns, lack of interceptions to this
(19:24):
point in a season. And they attached the finishing record
for those teams and Matt they were all like tom
Brady's sixteen and oh Patriots teams, tom Brady's fourteen and two,
Aaron Rodgers is fourteen and two with the Packers. Mahomes
went fourteen to two once. Doing this with the Chiefs, Like,
not only are you a good football team, if you're
playing as well as Burrow is, you're the best team
in the NFL almost every time. It's truly an anomaly
(19:47):
that they're struggling this much and he's playing that great.
Speaker 1 (19:51):
So back to this team being even steven Okay, so
let's say that they do have the best quarterback play
thus far of the year. Really really strong argument for that. Well,
all the all the quarterbacks against the Bengals are like
fifth best, and that's like Minshew in Winston, you know,
like theyre so they elevate the quarterbacks they play so
(20:16):
much that it nullifies the greatness of Burrow, which has
to be remarkably frustrated.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Now around Burrow, we obviously know the receivers will get
to them. In a second. Chase Brown you mentioned earlier,
is not having that terrible of a year despite the
fact that they don't really use the run as much
as you know they maybe have in the past with
Joe Mixon.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
Yeah, and he's come on heavy the last couple of
weeks too. He's really starting to put up numbers. He's explosive,
he's good in the passing game. He's starting to get
his legs under him really at the NFL level, you know.
I mean, he's the full time guy now. Sometimes other
backs don't even see the field really over the course
of the game. So I'm not saying he's a star,
(20:56):
but he's going to be a thorn in the Steelers
side for a while. He's a good player.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Fourteen point nine percent of Cincinnati's rush attempts have been
stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's the
seventh highest percentage in the league. So that's something to
keep an eye on. Maybe some tackles for a loss
or no gains for the Steelers defense against the Cincinnati
run game. Do you think Porter just takes Jamar Chase?
Is that the obvious matchup.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
I kind of get the hunch that they're gonna play
sides just because it makes it a little less confusing,
less chance of a coverage bust and Higgins is having
a heck of a year or two.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
I agree with you that Higgins presents enough of a
challenge where you can think about that where you can say, Okay,
maybe it's logical to just not travel and whatever receiver
ends up opposite to Joey, that's good with us. We're
gonna need Joey against them. But I don't know, Matt,
just something really scares me about Jamar Chase. As good
as T Higgins is, Jamar Chase, I think is just
(21:54):
in a completely different stratosphere. A top three receiver in
the NFL. He might be the best receiver in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
One agree, Yeah, I mean I think Higgins is a
top notch two that would be perfect opposite Pickens or
maybe a Charger.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
He could be a fringe one somewhere.
Speaker 1 (22:11):
Yeah, yeah, But Chase is special. I mean, I don't
think that's a scene at all to say he's the
best wide receiver in the league.
Speaker 2 (22:19):
Right now, Kasiki's starting to get some more looks from Burrow, isn't.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
He he is? He really got a lot when Higgins
was out because Gaseki isn't the tight end. I mean,
he's a big slot. He doesn't block anybody. He's skinny,
but he's really athletic former volleyball player, and he's been
a nice pickup for him. He's just one more weapon.
They got a lot of weapons per EPA.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
The Steelers have faced the easiest slate of offenses in
the league thus far. That will not be the case
on Sunday. That will not be the case moving forward
with this team schedule. Before we get out of here, Matt,
some key matchups to highlight. We just talked about this one.
It might not be the case most of the time,
but they'll have theirm mind Imano moments for sure. It's
Jamar Chase versus Joey Porter Jr.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, I mean that's best verse best.
Chase is better though.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
No offense to Joey Porter Jr. Because you say that
against Pats Sertain's lining up a opposite him, Chase is better,
Sauce Gardner, Chase is better. It's just the way it is.
He is that good. And finally you have Dan Moore
versus Bengals defensive Entrey Hendrickson. Will Hendrickson move around or
do you think that'll mainly be a more matchup?
Speaker 1 (23:32):
I need to double check his alignment. But just off
the top of my head, I think he's predominantly on
Dan Moore. I mean, yes, every team moves or ends
around more than the Steelers, but Hendrickson almost always comes
off the quarterbacks blind side, well the Dike battle before,
and it shouldn't be that hard to help him too.
But that's what every team says. And he still has
(23:53):
a lot of sacks.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
That's the thing. Like, he's got to be getting a
lot of attention. He's got to be facing doubles and
Max Protext and he's finding a way to get to
the quarterback. That being said, if more if Darnell Washington,
the help that anybody provides Dan Moore, stopping Trey Hendrickson
is a huge key in this game. He's the only
thing that can really affect the game defensively for Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
He's the game changer absolutely. I mean much more so
than Garrett was a week ago. I'm not saying he's
better than Garrett. I'm just saying the brownside other stuff,
you know what I mean, I get what you say. Yeah, yeah, yeah, all.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
Right, that'll do it for us in the Advanced Scout
Thanks has always for giving us a listen Steelers and
Bengals On Sunday at one o'clock, Matt is on the
air with the pre pre show on DV with Tim Benz,
and then at eleven am, the Steelers Audio Network pregame
kicks in kick off at one with Rob King, Craig Wolfley,
Max Starks, and Missy Matthews. Matt and I will be
(24:48):
back again next week with another Advanced Scout
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Therapy Gecko
An unlicensed lizard psychologist travels the universe talking to strangers about absolutely nothing. TO CALL THE GECKO: follow me on https://www.twitch.tv/lyleforever to get a notification for when I am taking calls. I am usually live Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays but lately a lot of other times too. I am a gecko.