November 25, 2025 • 23 mins
Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson break down the Steelers upcoming opponent the Buffalo Bills.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Steelers fell to the Chicago Bears thirty one to twenty
eight in Chicago last Sunday. That puts their record at
six and five and means the Ravens have caught them
for first place in the AFC North. The Steelers try
to bounce back by welcoming the Buffalo Bills to town,
who are seven to four and coming off a loss
in their own right to the Houston Texans on Thursday
(00:27):
Night Football this past week. And Matt, I gotta be
honest with you, as we are now approaching the Buffalo
Bills and shifting our attention to them. Am I crazy
to say I'm not as intimidated by these Bills as
I've been in the past couple of years With Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I won thousand percent degree. I think that some team
building has failed them over the years, in terms of
constantly trying to find defensive linemen, you know, trading a
bunch for von Miller, you know, drafted a bunch this year,
Constantly trying to find outside receivers, drafted keyon Coleman High
(01:01):
trading for Amari Cooper and they're still really deficient in
terms of run defense and perimeter weapons. They run the
football great. Kok is a tremendous back. Needless to say,
Josh Allen will be the best player on the field
and is basically every time he stops out there steps
out there, and that is terrifying. But he's been a
(01:26):
constant to your original, you know, conversation that hasn't changed.
But I think they're less terrifying as a team than usual.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, and you know, I get what you're saying. There's
a failure as far as a roster build is concerned.
But you know, it's not like the Bills are just
as a front office throwing their hands up and being like, well,
Josh Allen's superman, so we can coast. And they've tried
to address all of these issues that you're saying, try
to go out and get weapons, draft to keyon Coleman
on the perimeter, fix that wide receiver problem that they've had.
(01:54):
They have tried to draft defensive lineman edge rushers to
shore up the run defense. They rush the pas. They
just might not be hitting on these guys. This might
just be an evaluation problem.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I think that's exactly what it is.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
I mean, I'm sure they're realizing Josh isn't going to
be here forever. Let's be aggressive. You know, we're not
going to just sit on our hands. But they're not.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
It's not working, you know.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
I mean, I'm sure they'll get in the playoffs and
they'll make some noise. But I mean people might not
know this about Josh Allen, but I bet they don't.
I mean, during this Mahomes era of dominance, basically post Brady,
by far the best playoff quarterback is Josh Allen. That's
not like Mahomes is bad, but by far. And they
(02:38):
lose playoffs games by one point two points because the
defense always lets them down.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
And it's always like forty two to forty one. To
your point about the defense exactly, it's always.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
The yes and he does great things and then lets
you down. Not him the team.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Now, the Steelers and the Bills are actually kind of
having an eerily similar season when you look at it
in the context of starting off hot and then kind
of fading a little bit as of late. The Bills
started the season four and oh they've been three and
four ever since. Buffalo's two and three on the road
this year too, by the way, and they're four and
three in the AFC Conference. Pittsburgh is four and two
(03:16):
at home that includes a game in Dublin and five
and two an AFC contest. But the Steelers, Matt, you know,
they started off this season four and two, and now
they have lost a fair amounts two of their last two.
They're two and three in their previous five games. So
a bit of a similar tale here where teams got
out of the gate strong. Pittsburgh and Buffalo got out
to nice leads in their division and now have seen
(03:38):
those division leads evaporating. In the case of the Bills,
I mean, you're two three games back.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Now, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
And I'm not sure anyone counted on the Patriots being
this strong this early, you know. I mean a lot
of people thought, oh, they'll be better, Drake Mayto's a
good player, Bray Bowl, et cetera. So now they're chasing
where the Steelers were the team that were being chased,
and now the Stielers cot.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Here's some serious history between these two before we dive
into the defense and the offense of the Buffalo Bills.
Steelers lead the series seventeen to thirteen, but Buffalo won
the most recent matchup, eliminating the Steelers in the twenty
twenty four playoffs. The Bills have won four of the
most recent five meetings, including in the postseason, and called
that the Josh Allen era. Before that, Pittsburgh was on
a six game winning streak. You can call that not
(04:23):
the Josh Allen era. And that actually extended a little
bit further to where the Steelers won ten out of
eleven games against the Bills, including two in the playoffs
between the nineteen ninety three and the twenty sixteen season,
but the air between the nineteen eighty and nineteen ninety
two season belonged to Buffalo, with the Bills winning seven
of eight during that time. This has been a very
streaky series. Bills and Steelers started playing games in nineteen
(04:45):
seventy and during the nineteen seventies Pittsburgh only lost one
of six meetings. So it's kind of like decades of dominance,
right like, seventies to the Steelers, eighties to the Bills, nineties,
two thousands to the Steelers. Then the Bills started creeping
in the mid twenty ten.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Yeah, and I hadn't really thought about it that way.
But I mean, obviously, the seventies Steelers have a pretty
good record against everybody, and you know, the Bills had
Oj Simpson, but they weren't like a great, great team
during that stretch obviously, But then the Jim Kelly era
they were they probably had a good record against everybody,
and the Josh Allen the era they have a good
(05:22):
record against everybody. But everything in between is pretty much
the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Now, let's take a look at the Buffalo defense. To start.
It is a defense that is giving up just one
hundred and eighty two point eight passing yards per game,
that is the fewest in the league. But is that
simply just a result as we are entering week thirteen
of everybody knows that they have one of the worst
rushing defenses, so no one throws on them.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
I think so. I think so. And it's not.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
And it's not really like playing with the lead type
of thing, or closing people out or garbage time, you know,
like that doesn't apply here. People were running from the
beginning of the game to the end of the game.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
And they have okay players. The secondary I think Tredevious
White is a little past his prime. Maxwell Harrison's a
rookie that they think will really want to ascend faster.
Christian Benford's an okay player, But it's not a secondary
made up of you know, juggernauts that you'd go, Yeah,
I understand why they are the technically best passing defense
in the NFL, but they're just not getting tested because
(06:20):
this Bill's defense is giving up five point three two
yards per carry. Only the Giants are worse as far
as that in terms of that statistics. So it is
a very clear. Once again, I feel like we are
a broken record on this podcast, Matt, is a very
clear way to attack this team. Run the football, and
then run it some more. It is screaming at you
(06:40):
how your offensive game plan should be structured.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah, it does seem like we've had quite a few
weeks in a row Chargers, Bears, etc.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Where week in the run games run funnel, Yeah, run funnel.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
They're begging you to run. They don't stop the run,
so you run the football. One guy in the secondary
you didn't bring up. I just wanted to throw out
there was last year's second round pick, the safety Cole Bishop.
He shows a lot of promise you know, but he's developing.
But like you mentioned, Tredavis White, Jordan Poyer, these guys
have been around old yeah, yeah, old slow dudes. You know,
(07:14):
some of them have left and come back. But I
mean that's what they're playing with right now.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
In the back end, Buffalo allows five point five yards
per play. They have only allowed twelve passing touchdowns only
five defenses given up less. But no team has allowed
more rushing touchdowns than the Buffalo Bills. As far as
getting after the quarterback, you know, they're good at it.
Joey Bosa leads the Bills with four sacks. You've got
(07:39):
Greg Russo, Ed Oliver and Dick Kwan Jones with three apiece.
But they're not gonna have Oliver in this game. They
haven't had Jones either. They've only played an eight of
possible eleven games. They were averaging two point four sacks
per game or they are, but that is down because
just zero point three sacks per their last three games,
so that is really dried up for the Bill. As
(08:00):
far as getting pressure on the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Yeah yeah, in a big way.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
I think the guys to fear and you mentioned them
Russo and Joey Bosa. Now, Bosa doesn't want to play
every snap at this stage of his career. I mean,
he's more or less a designated pass rusher when everyone's healthy.
But the rest of the group is not real exciting.
You know, Larry Ogunjobi, we know who that is.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
You know, you just have to avoid the first quarter
with him. You can survive that first quarter with You're good.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
You're good. That's what he makes all his plays.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yeah, you know, there's not that much that worries me.
The names are bigger than I think they're. The bark
is a little bit bigger than the bite right now
with someone like Joey Bosa. You see that name and
you're kind of yehoa. But the wrinkle that we have
to discuss, Matt, we do this podcast on Tuesdays. We
already know because of Mike Tomlin's press conference today that
there will not be Roger Jones for the Steelers. So
that is a wrinkle that cannot be ignored. And even
(08:54):
though this bill's pass rush isn't daunting, you're down a
starting offensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Right, which probably mean is Faltanu will get very little help.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Right.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
My hunch is, and this might shock people, but I
think it's going to be Pete instead of Calvin Anderson.
But I don't know that for a fact. That's the
kind of some birdies told me they think it might
be Pete that I don't know. M sure it makes
a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Something to just monitor throughout the week as the Steelers
try to figure out a replacement for Roderick Jones. The Bills,
they're great on paper as far as stopping the past
is concerned. But Matt, what about them and their ability
to stop out running backs out of the backfield, because
I think that is where the Steelers really find their
best plays in this offense. And I was surprised to
(09:40):
see you point out that Kenneth Gainwell is fourth and
targets per route run twenty five percent amongst running backs
with at least one hundred and seventy five routes run.
And he's behind guys like Jamiir Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and
Devon a.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Chan.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
I mean we're talking about all pro candidates.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
And Gainwell gets a lot of action, as does Warren,
as you mentioned, and Warren's right always with those exact
same names in terms of yards per route run out
of the backfield. I mean, these are two of the
better receiving backs in the league. And it also could
help you slow down the pass rush and screens and
things of that nature with if your left tackle struggling.
(10:18):
So I think that's a really interesting approach. And I
don't know their numbers yet again, we're only recording this
on Tuesday. In terms of stopping backs in the passing game,
but I will tell you this is a defense that
wants to play light. They want to play in nickel.
Their linebackers are a little undersize, they're more built for coverage.
But Matt Milano, who's been a stallwart for them over
(10:41):
the years, it's kind of a shell of himself. So
I think you could definitely pick on him.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, it's tough to hear because I love Matt Milano.
I thought that he was such a great player, you know,
a fifth round pick, so kind of an underdog story,
a bit of a diamond in the rough for the
Bills to find him. And he was so good in
the middle of that defense when they had Tremaine Edmonds
two and they had a nice tandem there before Edmunds
left to go theres So it is tough to see
(11:06):
Milano fade. But you know, it is also surprising for
me to see, you know, he's drafted in twenty seventeen,
Matt So, I mean, he's no spring chicken. I mean
this is like his eighth year in the league.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yeah, that's what's about to say. It's like Milano, Tredavis White,
Jordan Poyer. These have been like stalwart play a lot
of postseason games with Josh Allen defensive players that probably
won't ever get that ring.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
You know, probably not. It doesn't look like that they
are a super Bowl contending team this year, but they
do have the superman and let's get to that side
of the ball, Josh Allen side of the ball. It
is still prolific. I mean the offense again, yeah, isn't
as scary because they don't have that weaponry in the
passing game as it's been in years past, especially when
you've had Stefan Diggs there before. But the Bills are
(11:56):
fifth best in three and outs per drive while the
Steelers are thirty four, So they will convert and move
the chains in a good manner. Pittsburgh offense has only
had four passes batted down against them. Buffalo's has only
had five batted down against them. Josh Allen's like seven
foot twelve, so no wonder he doesn't get balls batted
down against him. They are third best in yards per
drive differential, while the Steelers are twenty ninth, And when
(12:19):
you look at, you know, some of the real serious stats.
When it comes to this offense, they're still up towards
the top of the league as far as you know,
third in yards per drive, second in points per drive
with two point eight six, second in touchdowns per drive.
It's still an elite offense. I think when you look
at all of the metrics.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I tend to agree different than you might think. It's
funny brought the batted passes. The Steelers lead the league
by a wide margin.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Eighteen to Houston's thirteen.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Yet again, I mean, this is like three years in
a row.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
They didn't even do it last week, so this is
a week they had a d off.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
It's nuts.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
But again they really I don't know what their pass
catcher look like. So they signed Brandon Cooks a little
before we hit hit record here. I don't feel factor
in it all.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Yeah, limited at past right, I.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
Would think maybe runs go routes and he's still capable
of doing that. But they've been looking for perimeter receivers forever.
You know, key On Coleman's been a healthy scratch a little.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
In the doghouse, huh yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
And you know Khalil Shakir is really stepping up as
like the slot to move the chains guy, and he
can hurt, you kN Kaid's been hurt. He looked like
he was emerging. But all these dudes are like better
closer to the ball. You know, none of them are
really outside the number type players, and they've been looking
for that for a while. Ye're strong up the middle.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
They are strong up the middle. They run the ball
really well. Maybe the best team in the NFL, or
you could make an argument for them. But what's surprising
to me, Matt is on the season, they throw the
ball fifty two point six percent of the time, so
about forty eight percent of their plays they're running the ball.
That is the twenty sixth highest passing rate. So you'd
expect them to run the ball a lot, but over
(14:04):
their past three games they're at sixty two point five percent.
As far as throwing the ball is concerned, they're kind
of just getting away from their identity.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
I feel like, yeah, and they've been in closer games
and they're not closing teams out, and they have been
a little bit disjointed. They've been disjoining kind of all year,
you know, by their standards. You know, they don't look
like a top five team. I think they are throwing
more than they would like. What's interesting to me about
(14:32):
this team and a lot of things. So first off,
they have a really good O line. James Cooks are
really good back and everyone on the planet knows at
Allen's an elite runner for the position, let alone passer
and everything else. But they were by far last year
the heaviest six offensive line team in the league. I
mean almost to the point where the Steelers are using
it now. Now they barely use it at all because
(14:55):
they drafted this Jackson Haws dude in the fifth round
who's kind of like Darnell Washington. I mean, he is
a hammer blocker, so they keep him and he can
at least catch the ball a little bit.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Like he's not quite as big as Washington.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Nobody is, so they've kind of changed that approach, but
they still want big, nasty people on the field.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
You mentioned James Cook. He has one thousand and eighty
four rushing yards on the season. No other Bills skill
player has more than ninety yards on the ground. That
doesn't include Josh Allen. Of course, Cook has one hundred
yards rushing in six different games this season, but also
has three games with under fifty yards on the ground,
So you can you can eliminate James Cook from games,
(15:38):
and that's actually the way you want to go about it,
because the Bills are five and one in games in
which Cook hits one hundred plus yards rushing. So maybe
the formula is cutting off James Cook and just kind
of letting Josh Allen try to be Hercules. And hey,
if he scores six touchdowns on you like he did
against Tampa Bay, he scores six touchdowns on you, right.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
I mean, there hasn't been a touchdown producer like Josh
Allen in the history of the league. I mean, like
he's maybe like the best fantasy quarterback of all time,
but you know, Cam Newton esque but better. But I
think you're right, and in some ways that's encouraging. You know,
Like over the last couple of weeks, we've previewed these
teams in these matchups, and there's been some scary things,
(16:22):
you know, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Jamar Chase where you say, man,
I just hope they slow that guy down, but they've
been kind of eliminating them of late. You know, the
biggest weapon, whatever the offense likes to do best, the
Bears running game is I was just.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Going to say that, Yeah, it was a good job
against that.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, I mean, so if you could actually take Cook away,
well you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
And they've been good at doing those things.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
No, they absolutely have. But it's not just Cook that
you have to take in the run away in the
running game. It's obviously Alan too. He's averaging third twenty
three zero point seven yards per game, and he and
Cook have combined for eighteen rushing yards. The Bills quarterbacks
are scrambling on nine percent of their dropbacks. That's mainly
Josh Allen, a little bit of Trubisky in there. Yeah,
only four offenses have had a higher scramble rate than that.
(17:15):
And we all remember the big play of the last
time these two teams met in the twenty twenty four playoffs,
Matt was the Josh Allen rumble down the field for
what fifty plus yards and a really tough touchdown for
the Steelers to bounce back from No.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
One thousand percent that he does it to everybody, and
the Steelers historically, and we talked about this a little
with Caleb Williams a week ago.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Do do a good.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Job of limiting quarterback scrambles. They're actually probably the best
team in the league statistically. But it's also a tough
thing to take away, you know, I mean, late in
the down, shrugs off the defender, all of a sudden
there's a lane, and then you gotta get him on
the ground.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
I mean it's a nightmare, don't get me wrong.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
But the Steelers are good, maybe the best again defending
quarterback scrambles.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
Yeah, and this might be a good time to have
some nice, you know, hard hitting, thumping safeties like Dougger
and Ramsey because you gotta be willing tacklers in that
secondary against this moose, for lack of a better way
of describing him, he will have people bounce off of
him in ways that we haven't seen a quarterback half
people bounce off of him ever. I mean Ben used
to do that, but that was more like in the pocket,
(18:23):
you know, what I mean, shrug a guy off and extended.
This is downfield fifteen twenty yards.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Yeah, and there are some Roethlisberger comparisons, for sure. They're
big oak Tree, similar body type, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
But this guy just is faster, I mean, just runs better.
You know.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Now he is tough to sack like Big Ben was.
But don't tell the Houston Texans that Matt. They had
eight sacks against Buffalo and Josh Allen on Thursday Night
football last week. Is it a Bill's offensive line problem
as Alan trying to do too much or a bit
of Colin May and Colin.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
B in that game. I might just try to chalk
it off up to Houston a one off.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Yeah, Well to Houston. First of all, there they're past.
They're the best defense in the league in my opinion. Yes,
short week on a Thursday night, which, oh, by the way,
the Bills are going to be rest, angry and well rested. Yeah,
which isn't great. But they also lost Spencer Brown during
that game. The right tackle Dawkins was fighting something. And
(19:23):
I think you know me well enough that I think
a lot of just weird, unusual, unpredictable stuff happens on
Thursday night, especially on the road. You know, I don't
know that all of a sudden they're vulnerable to Steelers
are if they got eight, then we'ready get seven.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
You know, I don't know about that.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Well, one area that they might be getting a little
bit more vulnerable in is when it comes to Josh
Allen turning the ball over. Five of Allen's nine interceptions
this season have come over the past three games, and
he has thrown two in each of his past two games.
And this is something that that just might always be
in Josh Allen. Right last year he did such a
great job of protecting the football and and everybody was like, wow, yeah,
(20:01):
he got the turnovers out of his game. This is
gonna be awesome to see moving forward. And now they're
starting to creep back a little bit in a streaky
manner here, especially of late. When you're someone that tries
to make plays every single time you snap the ball
and you're pushing the ball down the field and you
have these jaw dropping moments, you're gonna have balls fine
defender's hands every now and then.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Yeah, and boy, he was amazing at it last year.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Won the MVP.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Oh, by the way, you know where he really eliminated
the bad stuff, the sacks and the turnovers. But I
tend to be with you that if we look at
the course of his career, when it's all said and done,
there's probably some farv in there where I'm just inherently
a risk taker and i can throw the thing through
a wall, so I'm gonna try to and if it
(20:48):
gets picked off once in a while, oh well.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Let's take a look at some of the key matchups
that we have here in Steelers versus Bills, Steelers offensive
tackles versus Bills defense ends Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau.
We say offensive tackles for the Steelers because we know
who one of those will be, Troy Fatanu, but we
are not aware right now as we record this on Tuesday,
who will be deputizing Broderick Jones duty. And it's gonna
(21:15):
be a big task for whoever it is. Obviously they'll
get a lot of help. So maybe, Matt, you're kind
of looking at Troy Fatanu in a weird way of
having more of the pressure on him, like he has
been so good this year. He looks like he really
is going to be a dude. At that right tackle.
Maybe this is the time to try to let him
really fly.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
You might never have a choice, you know, right. I
think you're one hundred percent right, and I think he's
up for the challenge. I mean, this is not hey,
Troy block Miles Garrett every snap by yourself, Michael Parsons
or something like that. These are good the ends, they're
above average defensive ends, but hey, we drafted in the
first round. This other guy's gonna need help. You're on
(21:54):
your own, you.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Know, yeah, no question. And then our other key matchup.
I think it's an obvious one, Steelers linebackers versus Bill's
running back James Cook, and you sprinkle in Josh Allen
and his running ability as well. That is the tandem here.
The best thing the Bills do is run the football
with those two players. And as you just said, Matt,
Steelers have done such a great job as the defensive
(22:15):
cutting off the offensive. Greatest strength well James Cook Josh
Allen running the ball. That's their greatest strength.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
One thousand percent.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
And the one thing that doesn't help the cause is
you mentioned the Jones injury. Derek Harmon's also have been
already announced out for this game, and I've liked his
ability to keep linebackers clean, play the run, be a
big power player in the middle, and you're gonna be
missing that too.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Steelers and Bills getting it on in front of a
national audience for twenty five CBS Big Spotlight Game of
the Week. Matt and I will get it all started
on DVE at twelve thirty with our pregame show Formatt Williamson,
I'm Tom Offerman. Thanks for giving us a listen, and
we will be back again next week with another edition
of the Advanced Scout
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Steelers fell to the Chicago Bears thirty one to twenty
eight in Chicago last Sunday. That puts their record at
six and five and means the Ravens have caught them
for first place in the AFC North. The Steelers try
to bounce back by welcoming the Buffalo Bills to town,
who are seven to four and coming off a loss
in their own right to the Houston Texans on Thursday
(00:27):
Night Football this past week. And Matt, I gotta be
honest with you, as we are now approaching the Buffalo
Bills and shifting our attention to them. Am I crazy
to say I'm not as intimidated by these Bills as
I've been in the past couple of years With Josh Allen.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I won thousand percent degree. I think that some team
building has failed them over the years, in terms of
constantly trying to find defensive linemen, you know, trading a
bunch for von Miller, you know, drafted a bunch this year,
Constantly trying to find outside receivers, drafted keyon Coleman High
(01:01):
trading for Amari Cooper and they're still really deficient in
terms of run defense and perimeter weapons. They run the
football great. Kok is a tremendous back. Needless to say,
Josh Allen will be the best player on the field
and is basically every time he stops out there steps
out there, and that is terrifying. But he's been a
(01:26):
constant to your original, you know, conversation that hasn't changed.
But I think they're less terrifying as a team than usual.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, and you know, I get what you're saying. There's
a failure as far as a roster build is concerned.
But you know, it's not like the Bills are just
as a front office throwing their hands up and being like, well,
Josh Allen's superman, so we can coast. And they've tried
to address all of these issues that you're saying, try
to go out and get weapons, draft to keyon Coleman
on the perimeter, fix that wide receiver problem that they've had.
(01:54):
They have tried to draft defensive lineman edge rushers to
shore up the run defense. They rush the pas. They
just might not be hitting on these guys. This might
just be an evaluation problem.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
I think that's exactly what it is.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
I mean, I'm sure they're realizing Josh isn't going to
be here forever. Let's be aggressive. You know, we're not
going to just sit on our hands. But they're not.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
It's not working, you know.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
I mean, I'm sure they'll get in the playoffs and
they'll make some noise. But I mean people might not
know this about Josh Allen, but I bet they don't.
I mean, during this Mahomes era of dominance, basically post Brady,
by far the best playoff quarterback is Josh Allen. That's
not like Mahomes is bad, but by far. And they
(02:38):
lose playoffs games by one point two points because the
defense always lets them down.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
And it's always like forty two to forty one. To
your point about the defense exactly, it's always.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
The yes and he does great things and then lets
you down. Not him the team.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Now, the Steelers and the Bills are actually kind of
having an eerily similar season when you look at it
in the context of starting off hot and then kind
of fading a little bit as of late. The Bills
started the season four and oh they've been three and
four ever since. Buffalo's two and three on the road
this year too, by the way, and they're four and
three in the AFC Conference. Pittsburgh is four and two
(03:16):
at home that includes a game in Dublin and five
and two an AFC contest. But the Steelers, Matt, you know,
they started off this season four and two, and now
they have lost a fair amounts two of their last two.
They're two and three in their previous five games. So
a bit of a similar tale here where teams got
out of the gate strong. Pittsburgh and Buffalo got out
to nice leads in their division and now have seen
(03:38):
those division leads evaporating. In the case of the Bills,
I mean, you're two three games back.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Now, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
And I'm not sure anyone counted on the Patriots being
this strong this early, you know. I mean a lot
of people thought, oh, they'll be better, Drake Mayto's a
good player, Bray Bowl, et cetera. So now they're chasing
where the Steelers were the team that were being chased,
and now the Stielers cot.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Here's some serious history between these two before we dive
into the defense and the offense of the Buffalo Bills.
Steelers lead the series seventeen to thirteen, but Buffalo won
the most recent matchup, eliminating the Steelers in the twenty
twenty four playoffs. The Bills have won four of the
most recent five meetings, including in the postseason, and called
that the Josh Allen era. Before that, Pittsburgh was on
a six game winning streak. You can call that not
(04:23):
the Josh Allen era. And that actually extended a little
bit further to where the Steelers won ten out of
eleven games against the Bills, including two in the playoffs
between the nineteen ninety three and the twenty sixteen season,
but the air between the nineteen eighty and nineteen ninety
two season belonged to Buffalo, with the Bills winning seven
of eight during that time. This has been a very
streaky series. Bills and Steelers started playing games in nineteen
(04:45):
seventy and during the nineteen seventies Pittsburgh only lost one
of six meetings. So it's kind of like decades of dominance,
right like, seventies to the Steelers, eighties to the Bills, nineties,
two thousands to the Steelers. Then the Bills started creeping
in the mid twenty ten.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Yeah, and I hadn't really thought about it that way.
But I mean, obviously, the seventies Steelers have a pretty
good record against everybody, and you know, the Bills had
Oj Simpson, but they weren't like a great, great team
during that stretch obviously, But then the Jim Kelly era
they were they probably had a good record against everybody,
and the Josh Allen the era they have a good
(05:22):
record against everybody. But everything in between is pretty much
the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Now, let's take a look at the Buffalo defense. To start.
It is a defense that is giving up just one
hundred and eighty two point eight passing yards per game,
that is the fewest in the league. But is that
simply just a result as we are entering week thirteen
of everybody knows that they have one of the worst
rushing defenses, so no one throws on them.
Speaker 3 (05:43):
I think so. I think so. And it's not.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
And it's not really like playing with the lead type
of thing, or closing people out or garbage time, you know,
like that doesn't apply here. People were running from the
beginning of the game to the end of the game.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
And they have okay players. The secondary I think Tredevious
White is a little past his prime. Maxwell Harrison's a
rookie that they think will really want to ascend faster.
Christian Benford's an okay player, But it's not a secondary
made up of you know, juggernauts that you'd go, Yeah,
I understand why they are the technically best passing defense
in the NFL, but they're just not getting tested because
(06:20):
this Bill's defense is giving up five point three two
yards per carry. Only the Giants are worse as far
as that in terms of that statistics. So it is
a very clear. Once again, I feel like we are
a broken record on this podcast, Matt, is a very
clear way to attack this team. Run the football, and
then run it some more. It is screaming at you
(06:40):
how your offensive game plan should be structured.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah, it does seem like we've had quite a few
weeks in a row Chargers, Bears, etc.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Where week in the run games run funnel, Yeah, run funnel.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
They're begging you to run. They don't stop the run,
so you run the football. One guy in the secondary
you didn't bring up. I just wanted to throw out
there was last year's second round pick, the safety Cole Bishop.
He shows a lot of promise you know, but he's developing.
But like you mentioned, Tredavis White, Jordan Poyer, these guys
have been around old yeah, yeah, old slow dudes. You know,
(07:14):
some of them have left and come back. But I
mean that's what they're playing with right now.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
In the back end, Buffalo allows five point five yards
per play. They have only allowed twelve passing touchdowns only
five defenses given up less. But no team has allowed
more rushing touchdowns than the Buffalo Bills. As far as
getting after the quarterback, you know, they're good at it.
Joey Bosa leads the Bills with four sacks. You've got
(07:39):
Greg Russo, Ed Oliver and Dick Kwan Jones with three apiece.
But they're not gonna have Oliver in this game. They
haven't had Jones either. They've only played an eight of
possible eleven games. They were averaging two point four sacks
per game or they are, but that is down because
just zero point three sacks per their last three games,
so that is really dried up for the Bill. As
(08:00):
far as getting pressure on the quarterback.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Yeah yeah, in a big way.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
I think the guys to fear and you mentioned them
Russo and Joey Bosa. Now, Bosa doesn't want to play
every snap at this stage of his career. I mean,
he's more or less a designated pass rusher when everyone's healthy.
But the rest of the group is not real exciting.
You know, Larry Ogunjobi, we know who that is.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
You know, you just have to avoid the first quarter
with him. You can survive that first quarter with You're good.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
You're good. That's what he makes all his plays.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yeah, you know, there's not that much that worries me.
The names are bigger than I think they're. The bark
is a little bit bigger than the bite right now
with someone like Joey Bosa. You see that name and
you're kind of yehoa. But the wrinkle that we have
to discuss, Matt, we do this podcast on Tuesdays. We
already know because of Mike Tomlin's press conference today that
there will not be Roger Jones for the Steelers. So
that is a wrinkle that cannot be ignored. And even
(08:54):
though this bill's pass rush isn't daunting, you're down a
starting offensive tackle.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Right, which probably mean is Faltanu will get very little help.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Right.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
My hunch is, and this might shock people, but I
think it's going to be Pete instead of Calvin Anderson.
But I don't know that for a fact. That's the
kind of some birdies told me they think it might
be Pete that I don't know. M sure it makes
a huge difference.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Something to just monitor throughout the week as the Steelers
try to figure out a replacement for Roderick Jones. The Bills,
they're great on paper as far as stopping the past
is concerned. But Matt, what about them and their ability
to stop out running backs out of the backfield, because
I think that is where the Steelers really find their
best plays in this offense. And I was surprised to
(09:40):
see you point out that Kenneth Gainwell is fourth and
targets per route run twenty five percent amongst running backs
with at least one hundred and seventy five routes run.
And he's behind guys like Jamiir Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and
Devon a.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Chan.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
I mean we're talking about all pro candidates.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
And Gainwell gets a lot of action, as does Warren,
as you mentioned, and Warren's right always with those exact
same names in terms of yards per route run out
of the backfield. I mean, these are two of the
better receiving backs in the league. And it also could
help you slow down the pass rush and screens and
things of that nature with if your left tackle struggling.
(10:18):
So I think that's a really interesting approach. And I
don't know their numbers yet again, we're only recording this
on Tuesday. In terms of stopping backs in the passing game,
but I will tell you this is a defense that
wants to play light. They want to play in nickel.
Their linebackers are a little undersize, they're more built for coverage.
But Matt Milano, who's been a stallwart for them over
(10:41):
the years, it's kind of a shell of himself. So
I think you could definitely pick on him.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, it's tough to hear because I love Matt Milano.
I thought that he was such a great player, you know,
a fifth round pick, so kind of an underdog story,
a bit of a diamond in the rough for the
Bills to find him. And he was so good in
the middle of that defense when they had Tremaine Edmonds
two and they had a nice tandem there before Edmunds
left to go theres So it is tough to see
(11:06):
Milano fade. But you know, it is also surprising for
me to see, you know, he's drafted in twenty seventeen,
Matt So, I mean, he's no spring chicken. I mean
this is like his eighth year in the league.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yeah, that's what's about to say. It's like Milano, Tredavis White,
Jordan Poyer. These have been like stalwart play a lot
of postseason games with Josh Allen defensive players that probably
won't ever get that ring.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
You know, probably not. It doesn't look like that they
are a super Bowl contending team this year, but they
do have the superman and let's get to that side
of the ball, Josh Allen side of the ball. It
is still prolific. I mean the offense again, yeah, isn't
as scary because they don't have that weaponry in the
passing game as it's been in years past, especially when
you've had Stefan Diggs there before. But the Bills are
(11:56):
fifth best in three and outs per drive while the
Steelers are thirty four, So they will convert and move
the chains in a good manner. Pittsburgh offense has only
had four passes batted down against them. Buffalo's has only
had five batted down against them. Josh Allen's like seven
foot twelve, so no wonder he doesn't get balls batted
down against him. They are third best in yards per
drive differential, while the Steelers are twenty ninth, And when
(12:19):
you look at, you know, some of the real serious stats.
When it comes to this offense, they're still up towards
the top of the league as far as you know,
third in yards per drive, second in points per drive
with two point eight six, second in touchdowns per drive.
It's still an elite offense. I think when you look
at all of the metrics.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
I tend to agree different than you might think. It's
funny brought the batted passes. The Steelers lead the league
by a wide margin.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Eighteen to Houston's thirteen.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
Yet again, I mean, this is like three years in
a row.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
They didn't even do it last week, so this is
a week they had a d off.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
It's nuts.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
But again they really I don't know what their pass
catcher look like. So they signed Brandon Cooks a little
before we hit hit record here. I don't feel factor
in it all.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Yeah, limited at past right, I.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
Would think maybe runs go routes and he's still capable
of doing that. But they've been looking for perimeter receivers forever.
You know, key On Coleman's been a healthy scratch a little.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
In the doghouse, huh yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
And you know Khalil Shakir is really stepping up as
like the slot to move the chains guy, and he
can hurt, you kN Kaid's been hurt. He looked like
he was emerging. But all these dudes are like better
closer to the ball. You know, none of them are
really outside the number type players, and they've been looking
for that for a while. Ye're strong up the middle.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
They are strong up the middle. They run the ball
really well. Maybe the best team in the NFL, or
you could make an argument for them. But what's surprising
to me, Matt is on the season, they throw the
ball fifty two point six percent of the time, so
about forty eight percent of their plays they're running the ball.
That is the twenty sixth highest passing rate. So you'd
expect them to run the ball a lot, but over
(14:04):
their past three games they're at sixty two point five percent.
As far as throwing the ball is concerned, they're kind
of just getting away from their identity.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
I feel like, yeah, and they've been in closer games
and they're not closing teams out, and they have been
a little bit disjointed. They've been disjoining kind of all year,
you know, by their standards. You know, they don't look
like a top five team. I think they are throwing
more than they would like. What's interesting to me about
(14:32):
this team and a lot of things. So first off,
they have a really good O line. James Cooks are
really good back and everyone on the planet knows at
Allen's an elite runner for the position, let alone passer
and everything else. But they were by far last year
the heaviest six offensive line team in the league. I
mean almost to the point where the Steelers are using
it now. Now they barely use it at all because
(14:55):
they drafted this Jackson Haws dude in the fifth round
who's kind of like Darnell Washington. I mean, he is
a hammer blocker, so they keep him and he can
at least catch the ball a little bit.
Speaker 3 (15:06):
Like he's not quite as big as Washington.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
Nobody is, so they've kind of changed that approach, but
they still want big, nasty people on the field.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
You mentioned James Cook. He has one thousand and eighty
four rushing yards on the season. No other Bills skill
player has more than ninety yards on the ground. That
doesn't include Josh Allen. Of course, Cook has one hundred
yards rushing in six different games this season, but also
has three games with under fifty yards on the ground,
So you can you can eliminate James Cook from games,
(15:38):
and that's actually the way you want to go about it,
because the Bills are five and one in games in
which Cook hits one hundred plus yards rushing. So maybe
the formula is cutting off James Cook and just kind
of letting Josh Allen try to be Hercules. And hey,
if he scores six touchdowns on you like he did
against Tampa Bay, he scores six touchdowns on you, right.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
I mean, there hasn't been a touchdown producer like Josh
Allen in the history of the league. I mean, like
he's maybe like the best fantasy quarterback of all time,
but you know, Cam Newton esque but better. But I
think you're right, and in some ways that's encouraging. You know,
Like over the last couple of weeks, we've previewed these
teams in these matchups, and there's been some scary things,
(16:22):
you know, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Jamar Chase where you say, man,
I just hope they slow that guy down, but they've
been kind of eliminating them of late. You know, the
biggest weapon, whatever the offense likes to do best, the
Bears running game is I was just.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
Going to say that, Yeah, it was a good job
against that.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Yeah, I mean, so if you could actually take Cook away,
well you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
And they've been good at doing those things.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
No, they absolutely have. But it's not just Cook that
you have to take in the run away in the
running game. It's obviously Alan too. He's averaging third twenty
three zero point seven yards per game, and he and
Cook have combined for eighteen rushing yards. The Bills quarterbacks
are scrambling on nine percent of their dropbacks. That's mainly
Josh Allen, a little bit of Trubisky in there. Yeah,
only four offenses have had a higher scramble rate than that.
(17:15):
And we all remember the big play of the last
time these two teams met in the twenty twenty four playoffs,
Matt was the Josh Allen rumble down the field for
what fifty plus yards and a really tough touchdown for
the Steelers to bounce back from No.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
One thousand percent that he does it to everybody, and
the Steelers historically, and we talked about this a little
with Caleb Williams a week ago.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Do do a good.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Job of limiting quarterback scrambles. They're actually probably the best
team in the league statistically. But it's also a tough
thing to take away, you know, I mean, late in
the down, shrugs off the defender, all of a sudden
there's a lane, and then you gotta get him on
the ground.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
I mean it's a nightmare, don't get me wrong.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
But the Steelers are good, maybe the best again defending
quarterback scrambles.
Speaker 1 (18:02):
Yeah, and this might be a good time to have
some nice, you know, hard hitting, thumping safeties like Dougger
and Ramsey because you gotta be willing tacklers in that
secondary against this moose, for lack of a better way
of describing him, he will have people bounce off of
him in ways that we haven't seen a quarterback half
people bounce off of him ever. I mean Ben used
to do that, but that was more like in the pocket,
(18:23):
you know, what I mean, shrug a guy off and extended.
This is downfield fifteen twenty yards.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Yeah, and there are some Roethlisberger comparisons, for sure. They're
big oak Tree, similar body type, et cetera.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
But this guy just is faster, I mean, just runs better.
You know.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Now he is tough to sack like Big Ben was.
But don't tell the Houston Texans that Matt. They had
eight sacks against Buffalo and Josh Allen on Thursday Night
football last week. Is it a Bill's offensive line problem
as Alan trying to do too much or a bit
of Colin May and Colin.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
B in that game. I might just try to chalk
it off up to Houston a one off.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Yeah, Well to Houston. First of all, there they're past.
They're the best defense in the league in my opinion. Yes,
short week on a Thursday night, which, oh, by the way,
the Bills are going to be rest, angry and well rested. Yeah,
which isn't great. But they also lost Spencer Brown during
that game. The right tackle Dawkins was fighting something. And
(19:23):
I think you know me well enough that I think
a lot of just weird, unusual, unpredictable stuff happens on
Thursday night, especially on the road. You know, I don't
know that all of a sudden they're vulnerable to Steelers
are if they got eight, then we'ready get seven.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
You know, I don't know about that.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Well, one area that they might be getting a little
bit more vulnerable in is when it comes to Josh
Allen turning the ball over. Five of Allen's nine interceptions
this season have come over the past three games, and
he has thrown two in each of his past two games.
And this is something that that just might always be
in Josh Allen. Right last year he did such a
great job of protecting the football and and everybody was like, wow, yeah,
(20:01):
he got the turnovers out of his game. This is
gonna be awesome to see moving forward. And now they're
starting to creep back a little bit in a streaky
manner here, especially of late. When you're someone that tries
to make plays every single time you snap the ball
and you're pushing the ball down the field and you
have these jaw dropping moments, you're gonna have balls fine
defender's hands every now and then.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Yeah, and boy, he was amazing at it last year.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
Won the MVP.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
Oh, by the way, you know where he really eliminated
the bad stuff, the sacks and the turnovers. But I
tend to be with you that if we look at
the course of his career, when it's all said and done,
there's probably some farv in there where I'm just inherently
a risk taker and i can throw the thing through
a wall, so I'm gonna try to and if it
(20:48):
gets picked off once in a while, oh well.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
Let's take a look at some of the key matchups
that we have here in Steelers versus Bills, Steelers offensive
tackles versus Bills defense ends Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau.
We say offensive tackles for the Steelers because we know
who one of those will be, Troy Fatanu, but we
are not aware right now as we record this on Tuesday,
who will be deputizing Broderick Jones duty. And it's gonna
(21:15):
be a big task for whoever it is. Obviously they'll
get a lot of help. So maybe, Matt, you're kind
of looking at Troy Fatanu in a weird way of
having more of the pressure on him, like he has
been so good this year. He looks like he really
is going to be a dude. At that right tackle.
Maybe this is the time to try to let him
really fly.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
You might never have a choice, you know, right. I
think you're one hundred percent right, and I think he's
up for the challenge. I mean, this is not hey,
Troy block Miles Garrett every snap by yourself, Michael Parsons
or something like that. These are good the ends, they're
above average defensive ends, but hey, we drafted in the
first round. This other guy's gonna need help. You're on
(21:54):
your own, you.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
Know, yeah, no question. And then our other key matchup.
I think it's an obvious one, Steelers linebackers versus Bill's
running back James Cook, and you sprinkle in Josh Allen
and his running ability as well. That is the tandem here.
The best thing the Bills do is run the football
with those two players. And as you just said, Matt,
Steelers have done such a great job as the defensive
(22:15):
cutting off the offensive. Greatest strength well James Cook Josh
Allen running the ball. That's their greatest strength.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
One thousand percent.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
And the one thing that doesn't help the cause is
you mentioned the Jones injury. Derek Harmon's also have been
already announced out for this game, and I've liked his
ability to keep linebackers clean, play the run, be a
big power player in the middle, and you're gonna be
missing that too.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
Steelers and Bills getting it on in front of a
national audience for twenty five CBS Big Spotlight Game of
the Week. Matt and I will get it all started
on DVE at twelve thirty with our pregame show Formatt Williamson,
I'm Tom Offerman. Thanks for giving us a listen, and
we will be back again next week with another edition
of the Advanced Scout
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