December 2, 2025 • 24 mins
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman break down Steelers upcoming matchup with the Baltimore Ravens
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson.
Speaker 3 (00:07):
Steelers lose to the Buffalo Bills twenty six to seven.
They are now on a two game losing streak, and
they head to Baltimore to face the Ravens, who are
also six and six, in a game that will determine
who has control of the AFC North. Matt, I think
the best thing the Steelers have going for them heading
into this game against Baltimore is the fact that the
(00:29):
Baltimore Ravens themselves aren't playing spectacular football either.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Yeah, I thought you're to go another direction. There's two
angles I have, And first off, the opponent doesn't look
all that scary right now. I know they won a
bunch of games before last week, but this is not
the Ravens team that I predicted to win the Super Bowl.
I mean, they have a lot of problems. The other
angle I was going to take, which might not hold
(00:54):
any water, is well, the Steelers are really inconsistent, so
may they're due for a really good game because they
played really poorly last week.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
I I like that angle, Matt, because they did indeed
play very poorly. Last week it felt a little rock
bottom ish, and you said something when you joined Mark
Show earlier this week that was so interesting to me.
You're finding it hard to kind of analyze this game
just because there's just nothing to really look at, and.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Especially when you look at the offensive side of the ball.
They only had it for eighteen minutes.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Yeah, and Wes and I have talked about this on
the first two episodes of The Drive, trying to recap
the game. And it's not like we're trying to avoid
recapping the game. I just don't think you need an
expert opinion to figure out what went wrong. I mean,
it was the same thing over and over and over.
You couldn't stop the run, and the offense was bad. Frankly,
the Steelers pass defense and very little time that we
(01:48):
got to see it was pretty good, but it didn't
matter because you were so bad at everything else, so
they didn't even throw the ball.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
And the time of possession thing, I mean, we've been
harping on it on this podcast, You've been harping on
it on all the.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Shows that you do. It's a huge, huge problem for
the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
They sit at twenty seven minutes and one second average
time of possession. That's the worst in the league, and
it was rock bottom in that department with eighteen minutes
and just one second last week.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
This is a.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Baltimore team that they're playing that holds onto the ball
twenty eight minutes and fifty seven seconds per game. It
was just twenty one minutes and fourteen seconds last week
against the Bengals on Thanksgiving. They turned the ball over
a ton that week. But there's a mismatch there when
it comes to possession. Ravens aren't excellent excellent at it,
but they're better than the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Everybody is, and.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I'd say everybody is, and to me, that sums up
the season more than anything. And I think the number
is the Steeler defense has played one hundred and fifty
four more plays than the Steelers offense. That's alarming because
that's way more than two whole games worse. It's borderline
(02:55):
like asking one side of the ball to play three
more games than the other side of the ball. And
in a way it could have been. It could be
much worse, or it could get much worse, because usually
when you see teams that are that lopsided, people start
getting hurt left and right, and Steelers have had some
defensive injuries, but not an unruly amount or more than
(03:17):
the average bear. But if you keep asking to play
that much defense, all of a sudden, people are gonna
start going down like crazy. It has to change immediately.
And like I talked to it with Mark though, like
what's the biggest thing wrong with this team? It's time
of possession, it's number of plays. But there's so many
things factored into that. You know, you don't run the
(03:39):
ball well enough, you don't get up first downs, you
don't get up the field on defense. You know, like
it's not one reason.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Why, No, it is not.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
But they need to figure out a reason to fix
it and fix it fast. Get the win against the
Baltimore Ravens. Control the game is going to be a
key in this one in Baltimore. The series history between
these two teams, I don't need to remind you all
out there of it. One of the fiercest rivalries in
the NFL, started in nineteen ninety six when the Ravens
joined the NFL. Since then, Pittsburgh leads the series thirty
(04:10):
six to twenty seven, including the five playoff matchups. The
most recent matchup was last year in the wild Card round.
Baltimore has won two in a row in the postseason.
Pittsburgh won six of the first seven meetings between these
two teams, and they've also won eight of the last
eleven games. Mike Tomlin is now twenty two and eighteen
against the Ravens. John Harbaugh seventeen and twenty one against Pittsburgh.
(04:31):
Tomlin and Harbor's thirty eight meetings is the second most
between head coaches all time. In Baltimore, the Steelers are
fifteen to fifteen including playoffs, but have won four of
the past six and six of the past nine in
M and T Banks Stadium. Matt that part there where
I said they Steelers won eight thirty, well, I'm sorry, ahead.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
The most recent matchup wasn't pretty for the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
That's exactly where I was going.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
I mentioned that eight out of eleven for the Steelers,
but it is drastically shifted in the other direction for
the Ravens. They combined for five and nineteen rushing yards
in those previous matchups against the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Wow, yeah, nice, and you felt every one of them
just like the Bells game.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Really, no question about it.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
Let's take a look at the Ravens defensive side of
the ball to start things off today, they were the
side of the ball that was under the microscope. At
the beginning of the year for Baltimore, it looked like
the Ravens were going to have a wasted season, and
people were blaming the defensive side of things for that
wasted season. But last week was the first time that
(05:32):
Baltimore allowed twenty plus points in a game since Week five,
and they've allowed the second fewest points per game from
Week six to twelve Matt, so this defense has changed
drastically for Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
It has, and in some ways it's similar to last
year where they were having all kinds of problems and
then they made some big changes, and a lot of
the changes took place when they made the Harbor off
of Harbaugh trade. They traded Oway, an edge pass rusher,
maybe even their best edge pass rusher, for a lot
of Gilman, a safety that they're playing at the free
(06:07):
and what happened was it's kind of the opposite of
last year. Last year, they took Kyle Hamilton, who's a
tremendous football player, and put him in the deep middle
and let everyone else just kind of stabilize things. This year,
they get Gilman. They take their first round pick and
take both those guys and move them well off the
ball and bring Hamilton down into the box. Is kind
(06:28):
of like their Paula Malu type guy. But the pass
rush is still so bad, you know, and they tradeed
one of their best pass rushers. They have to generate
pass rush to via blitz, which is why they strengthened
their secondary so they could blitz more, but they had
to give up a good pass rusher to do it,
and really losing Matta Bouque really really early season season
(06:52):
was something that they've just not been able to overcome.
They're not as good at the line of scrimmage as
any time that I can remember.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
No, they definitely aren't.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
I'm glad you brought up Kyle Hamilton there when you
were giving your analysis.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
I think he's fantastic, and you.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Mentioned that he kind of treat him like a Troy
Polamaldo type of player. He's not as good as Troy,
nobody is, but that is kind of the way that
they scheme him up. He's got a lot of freedom.
He shows up at the line of scrimmage a lot.
He and Rokwan Smith are superstars, and so the Ravens
defense has that at least going for them. There are weaknesses,
no doubt, but they have superstar all Pro caliber players
(07:27):
in their secondary and in the middle of that defense with.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Roquan Yeah, and Rokwan's back to playing very well leader
of the defense. Humphrey's still a good corner. But Hamilton's
in contention for best safety in the league. You know,
like I mentioned, he could play deep middle. He can
man up any of the Steelers tight ends. You'll see
him take on guards in the run game, shake them,
(07:51):
go make the play, you know. I mean, like there
are many safeties to get off guard blocks. He can blit.
He does it all.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, I mean, Steelers linebackers have trouble getting off guard blocks.
So yeah, that's just that. Kyle Hamilton is such a
unique type of player. I want to bring up the
other linebacker too, though, Matt Teddy Buchan and the rookie.
He's having a pretty good rookie campaign, isn't he For
a fourth round pick? And Trenton Simpson, a third round
pick in twenty twenty three, hasn't really been able to
catch on for them. They've kind of been searching for
that tandem ever since Patrick Queen left to join US
(08:20):
and Buchanan doing a pretty good job in his rookie campaign,
isn't he.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, I don't have a lot more to add, but
that was their plan of attack was we can't afford
Queen and Rokuan, so we know Patrick's going to go,
so we draft Simpson and that was kind of a
miss or at least so far, but it looks like
they've made up for it.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
How's their secondary looking. Matt Marlon Humphrey is just so
damn old and Nate Wiggins is hurt, but he's an
okay player, nothing like spectacular so far in his career.
It feels like they could get more out of the
corners that Kyle Hamilton, of course, is excluded from that.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Yeah, I'll I'll fight you on Wiggins though, I'll be honest.
He's very lean, but he's one of my favorite young corners.
You like him, Yeah, I think he's got a chance
to be quite good. And now they've a trio with
Safety's with Starks the first round fake Gilman Hamilton who
we mentioned Humphreys is still playing pretty well in my opinion.
(09:20):
Jari Alexandra was a failed experiment, but I think the
back seven is clearly way better than the defensive front.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
That should be the plan of attack for the Steelers
is trying to run the ball, control the line of
scrimmage against that defensive front. And honestly, it's good news
that this is a pass rush that is kind of lacking,
even more so than the Bills last week. I mean,
the Bills had Bosas and Rousseau's. This Ravens team doesn't
even have guys like that. I mean you're looking at
Kyle van Noy out there. So with the banged up
status of the Steelers offensive line, with the banged up
(09:50):
status of your quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it's a good matchup
as far as the minimal pass rush is concerned.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, I would think so. And you should be able
to die their blitzes pretty well. It's a defense you're
familiar with as well. I mean, as organizations go back
to the time possession problem, I really think step one
of fixing that is you just have to run the
ball more.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Yeah, yeah, I think that's obvious. It's very clear, right,
that's what did you put it as? It's like that's
the the symptoms are your time of possession.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Well, the answer is you got to run the ball more.
That's the medicine that you have to take for it.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Yeah, Like I keep joking, like and I go to
the doctor and say, hey, doc, my time of possession
is really hurting me. Well, k let's get to the
bottom of this thing. Well, there's a lot of roots
to the Steelers problem. But I think step one of
the medication he should give you is, let's how about
a higher percentage of run.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
I want to bring up a mismatch that you identified
it in your stat pack, Matt. The Steelers are so
bad at keeping their drives alive. The only teams to
fail to pick up a down on a higher percentage
of their drives than Pittsburgh are the Raiders and the Titans,
two of the worst teams in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
However, teas in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Yeah, However, Baltimore's defense creates a three and out zero
point one five percent of the time at the league's
lowest rate. So this is a team that allows drives
to continue for their opposition. The Steelers don't continue drives
on their offensive side of all. Something's got to give here, either,
The Ravens' ability to allow teams to keep drives alive
(11:32):
is going to give or the Steelers are going to
actually start to get some first downs and not go
three and out for a change.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Yeah, great point. I mean, it's not the stingiest defense
in terms of what you're probably worst at to smother
you with, So I hesitate to use a term. It
could be a get right game. But as the fact
that it's such a rivalry and these games are always
well except for the last playoff game close in that
(11:58):
and whatnot, maybe get something going and be the more
physical team. One thing we haven't mentioned, but I've been
going out of my way to mention, so I just
want to make sure we do is I hate hate
that the NFL, and frankly I think it's a very
unfair thing that they did. Is two weeks in a row.
The Steelers are going to be at a significant rest disadvantage.
(12:23):
I mean, both these teams that ten days to prepare,
and the more I do this for a living, the
more I think that's a huge advantage for Buffalo and
now Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
No question, can't ignore that.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Looking at the Ravens offensive side of things, you know,
at the beginning of the year, we just mentioned how
the defense was kind of letting them down, and then
the defense really pick it up, especially when Lamar Jackson
got hurt, and they've been kind of carrying the team lately,
where the offense has been struggling now, so they've been
not able to find consistency. As far as complimentary football
is concerned, this is a Ravens offense that's going to
(12:58):
be in twenty one personnel eleven percent of the time,
twenty two personnel six point nine percent of the time,
So you're going to see the fullback a decent amount
of time. They are second in twenty one and sixth
and twenty two personnel in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
And I think all of our listeners know who that is.
That's Patrick Riccard, who isn't even the normal fullback. I
mean he's closer to you know, Spencer Anderson than he
is most fullbacks out there. I mean, a real unique
player and very much part of their identity. They are
power football team in.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
That vein Baltimore throws the ball on fifty one point
five percent of their snaps. Only the Seahawks and Bills
throw it at a lower rate. The identity for the
Ravens has not been hard to figure out for a
long time.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Now.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
This is a team that doesn't hide who they are,
what they want to do, and it hasn't changed much
over the past couple of years.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
True, but they're not in a good spot.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
They're not doing it as well as they used to.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
That's for sure. Like I think every time we've done
the last couple of years, this podcast is a preview show.
The Ravens offensive numbers are they're second in the league, oh,
the first and league they're third in the league. Like
in every they're not like that. And it's not just
because of the time without Lamar. If you give me
(14:11):
a minute, I mean, there's almost every facet of the
offense is a step worse than it used to be.
Like Flowers is a really good player, but I think
he's a two. Bateman's an okay two, but he has
to be the three. Andrews is a step slower. The
both the guards are subpar. Stanley in the right tack
(14:34):
or both. Yeah, they're not great, you know, I mean,
so four fifths of their O line isn't wonderful. Dereck
Henry's a hard guy to ever say anything bad about,
but he also, like Andrew, finally looks a step slower.
And obviously the elephant in the room is the two
time MVP phenomenal quarterback, and he hasn't been saying since
(14:57):
he's been back from injury, they're just not even hard
even running him. He has very few rushing yards per
games in these five games since he returned from injury,
and you watch him and it's obvious that he's not
one hundred percent. Yes, his passing has been off, and
I think a lot of that is the hamstring and
just as lower body mechanics aren't as sharp as they
(15:18):
used to be. But easily the most explosive he's looked
in these five games was last week. He didn't look
like old Lamar, but he was starting to show a
little bit of it. And now if he has ten days,
it just makes me wonder and just kind of knowing
the Steelers' luck and how their season's going. For the
(15:38):
guy who's been not looking like Lamar Jackson for five weeks. Now,
maybe all of a sudden on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
You will now I think it's very clear he's playing
through an injury. He was unbelievable before he got hurt.
The Ravens were losing games, but Lamar was playing at
an MVP level. He didn't just all of a sudden
forget how to run, forget how to play quarterback effectively.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
It's the injury problem.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
But over his pass through games, he's completing just fifty
five percent of his passes and averaging one hundred ninety
seven point three passing yards per game. He has thrown
zero touchdowns and three interceptions in those three games, so
it hasn't been the MVP level Lamar. But I think
you're right, Matt, like he's gonna get better and better
and better, and this might be the the extra rest
(16:19):
that he needed to finally get over that hump.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
I really hope not. But he started the show signs
of being the explosive mover, and I went, oh, Man,
couldn't have played this guy a week ago.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
You know, well, they're gonna be tempted to run, Lamar.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
They're gonna be tempted to run everybody against the Steelers
after what the Bills did to Pittsburgh, going for two
hundred and forty nine rushing yards, the most that the
Steelers have ever surrendered to an opponent at through hinz
Field slash Acrosser Stadium, the most since nineteen seventy five
in Pittsburgh when Buffalo, ironically enough, came in and rushed
for over three hundred yards against the Steelers at three
Rivers Stadium. Baltimore averages five yards per carry, only behind
(16:56):
the Colts. And you mentioned Derrick Henry kind of a
step slower this year. I agree with you there, Matt.
He's a little bit more off the radar than he
usually is, almost a bit of an afterthought as far
as running backs are concerned. Then you pull up his
stats and you realize he's the seventh leading rusher, still
has nine hundred and thirty one yards, and he's averaging
four point seven yards per carry. I mean, even a
down year for him is better than most.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Yeah, it's funny. I mean I play a lot of
fantasy football, and I'm sure a lot of people do,
and for like three years now, I've avoided him in
my fantasy drafts. You know, oh, he's gonna fall off
a cliff never does you know? And just a remarkable specimen,
an easy Hall of famer. And I don't never cite
these things in my stat pack that we reference so much.
(17:38):
But his like average miles per hour and top speed
and things like that that they track now are noticeably
lower than they were last year. But that doesn't make
him any easier to tackle.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah, no question.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
And Derek Henry now has scored ten plus rushing touchdowns
in eight straight seasons. He is second behind only La
Danian Tomlinson for such seasons. I mean, you're going up
against a Hall of famer. Even though he is slowing
down a bit, it is remarkable to see this kind
of longevity out of a back that size that like
you said that, he's never really fallen off the cliff.
He's just kind of taking his foot off the gas
(18:14):
a little bit more this year.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
But that is priority.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Number one for the Steelers defense is stopping him, especially
with Lamar Jackson showing that he's not really willing to
run the ball as much lately with that injury that
he's dealing with. So getting Henry on the ground slowing
him down is the biggest key. That was their biggest
failure in the previous two matchups, including the wild card round.
And you know, you kind of had this sense in
the offseason, Matt that a lot of their focus on
(18:39):
the defensive side of the ball. A lot of their
focus on the offseason moves were going to be to
stop Derrek Henry, to stop the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Right because they got embarrassed in that playoff game and
it didn't say well. And to their point or to
their credits, they didn't just sit on their hands. You know,
they drafted guys them and they went out and got
he got very deep on the D line. And now coincidentally,
I guess the D line's depth is really being tested.
And the two guys they trotted out there last week,
(19:08):
the two bottom of the roster D linemen WNU and
what's the space and the other recent addition really shouldn't
be out there. You know, they were counting on the
lowries and those type of dudes to kind of be
your depth pieces, and they're kind of not in the equation.
And I think it goes without saying. I mean, the
Jackson Henry combination might be the best running backfield in
(19:33):
NFL history and definitely the most unique. I mean, they
couldn't be any more different, and you're not getting the
one version of either. But if ninety percent is still
good enough to do what the Bills did to you
You're in big trouble. You know.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Now.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
The Ravens are a run first offense, but they will
throw the ball. Lamar Jackson, before the injury, was just
throwing the ball fantastically this season. Rashad Bateman, J Flowers,
DeAndre Hopkins. That's the trio of wide receivers that he
has to play with. Still have Mark Andrews old reliable.
As far as the tight end is concerned, Isaiah Likely
(20:12):
a young up and coming tight end. I mean, I
really do love their pass catchers, Matt like. I think
they have a good receiving room here. It's in the
right it's heading in the right direction for the first
time in Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
I agree mostly, But I do think Andrews is starting
to slow a little. We talked about it earlier, that
maybe they're one pass catcher away from really being a
top group of receivers. Although I do think Likely is
a very good player. I think Flowers is a very
scary go to the ball in his hands. Hopkins hasn't
(20:46):
given him much. I mean, he's more of a name
than he is an asset at this point, right, and
you hope he doesn't get right. But Lamar's missed some
open guys the last few weeks too.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Let's take a look at some of the key matchups here,
Matt before we get out of here. Steelers quarterback Aaron
Rodgers versus Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton. Now, we talked a
lot about Kyle Hamilton in this podcast already. He is
such a unique player. They employ him in a lot
of different ways. But that's kind of what the superpower
of Aaron Rodgers is, right going up against a player
(21:20):
like this that might show up here and then the
next play he's there, and I got to kind of
keep track of where he is at all times. Tough
matchup for Rogers against Hamilton.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, and there's been a couple of these matchups we've
talked about over the course of the year where maybe
it's Flores or you know, I mean, the guys that
throw a lot at you, and Hamilton definitely qualifies. They
use them in a wide variety of manners. But I
do think that's Rogers' best asset at this point too,
is understanding what the defense is trying to accomplish.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
You know, since we're talking about Rogers, where are you
at as far as playing him or not playing him.
He clearly couldn't take a snap under center in that
game last week against the Bills, and I think that
just kind of, you know, crumples up a lot of
the stuff you're doing in the playbook, especially running the football,
and throws it in the trash. But at the same time, Matt,
I'm not, you know, really confident in Mason Rudolph. The
(22:10):
other options that the Steelers have that maybe Rogers hindered
so much where he can't take a snap under center,
still is your best choice.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Yeah, it's a tough spot they're in right now. And
Happy birthday Aaron Rodgers forty two birthday. Yeah, how about that?
They went out and got him a nice old present.
And now Adam Feeling today, thirty.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Five year old wide receiver. Happy birthday.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Sure, happy birthday. Who neither's perfect at the moment, and
that's scary. I kind of expected more from Rudolph. And
maybe it's unfair because he's only came out for such
a short stint last week and threw a bad pick,
but he didn't complete the deep balls. And I can
(22:55):
at least argue, but there's a lot of hindsight here.
Maybe the Steeler beat the Bears with Rogers just because
maybe he completes two or three of the deep balls
of Rudolph couldn't right. I don't think he would have
aligned wrong late in the game with Rogers in there.
But he's not the player right now. Maybe this week's
better because I don't think he'll do more under center
(23:17):
against Baltimore, but he's definitely not the player lately than
he was the first month of the season.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
And our other key matchup to keep an eye on
is Steelers linebackers versus of course Ravens running back Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
The Steelers' linebackers really do struggle against the run. One
area that I saw them really struggle with this week.
We kind of predicted this on the pregame show without
Harmon up front to eat up a lot of those bodies.
Guards were getting to the second level and Queen and
Wilson were having trouble shedding those blocks. Don't want that
to have to happen against the Ravens. And you have
to deal with Ricard as well if you're a linebacker
(23:53):
having to shed off of him to get to.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
Henry, Yeah, as well as a multitude of tight end
and he's not the best player in the world. But
you know, Charlie Kohler is a big blocking type guy.
I mean, their run game is hard to deal with,
but at least it's familiar. Queen's on the injury report
when we record this. Hopefully he's around for his old team.
(24:16):
Maybe he has a little something extra, but Henry in
Their run game, of course, presents a large challenge.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
One o'clock in Baltimore. Six and six Stealers, six and
six Ravens. Control of the AFC North Division is at stake.
Matt Williamson and myself. We'll get it all started at
nine am on DVE Formatt, I'm Tom, thanks as always
for giving us a listen, and we'll talk to you
next week on our next edition of The Advance Scout
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opferman and Matt Williamson.
Speaker 3 (00:07):
Steelers lose to the Buffalo Bills twenty six to seven.
They are now on a two game losing streak, and
they head to Baltimore to face the Ravens, who are
also six and six, in a game that will determine
who has control of the AFC North. Matt, I think
the best thing the Steelers have going for them heading
into this game against Baltimore is the fact that the
(00:29):
Baltimore Ravens themselves aren't playing spectacular football either.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Yeah, I thought you're to go another direction. There's two
angles I have, And first off, the opponent doesn't look
all that scary right now. I know they won a
bunch of games before last week, but this is not
the Ravens team that I predicted to win the Super Bowl.
I mean, they have a lot of problems. The other
angle I was going to take, which might not hold
(00:54):
any water, is well, the Steelers are really inconsistent, so
may they're due for a really good game because they
played really poorly last week.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
I I like that angle, Matt, because they did indeed
play very poorly. Last week it felt a little rock
bottom ish, and you said something when you joined Mark
Show earlier this week that was so interesting to me.
You're finding it hard to kind of analyze this game
just because there's just nothing to really look at, and.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Especially when you look at the offensive side of the ball.
They only had it for eighteen minutes.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Yeah, and Wes and I have talked about this on
the first two episodes of The Drive, trying to recap
the game. And it's not like we're trying to avoid
recapping the game. I just don't think you need an
expert opinion to figure out what went wrong. I mean,
it was the same thing over and over and over.
You couldn't stop the run, and the offense was bad. Frankly,
the Steelers pass defense and very little time that we
(01:48):
got to see it was pretty good, but it didn't
matter because you were so bad at everything else, so
they didn't even throw the ball.
Speaker 3 (01:54):
And the time of possession thing, I mean, we've been
harping on it on this podcast, You've been harping on
it on all the.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Shows that you do. It's a huge, huge problem for
the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (02:03):
They sit at twenty seven minutes and one second average
time of possession. That's the worst in the league, and
it was rock bottom in that department with eighteen minutes
and just one second last week.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
This is a.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Baltimore team that they're playing that holds onto the ball
twenty eight minutes and fifty seven seconds per game. It
was just twenty one minutes and fourteen seconds last week
against the Bengals on Thanksgiving. They turned the ball over
a ton that week. But there's a mismatch there when
it comes to possession. Ravens aren't excellent excellent at it,
but they're better than the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Everybody is, and.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I'd say everybody is, and to me, that sums up
the season more than anything. And I think the number
is the Steeler defense has played one hundred and fifty
four more plays than the Steelers offense. That's alarming because
that's way more than two whole games worse. It's borderline
(02:55):
like asking one side of the ball to play three
more games than the other side of the ball. And
in a way it could have been. It could be
much worse, or it could get much worse, because usually
when you see teams that are that lopsided, people start
getting hurt left and right, and Steelers have had some
defensive injuries, but not an unruly amount or more than
(03:17):
the average bear. But if you keep asking to play
that much defense, all of a sudden, people are gonna
start going down like crazy. It has to change immediately.
And like I talked to it with Mark though, like
what's the biggest thing wrong with this team? It's time
of possession, it's number of plays. But there's so many
things factored into that. You know, you don't run the
(03:39):
ball well enough, you don't get up first downs, you
don't get up the field on defense. You know, like
it's not one reason.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Why, No, it is not.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
But they need to figure out a reason to fix
it and fix it fast. Get the win against the
Baltimore Ravens. Control the game is going to be a
key in this one in Baltimore. The series history between
these two teams, I don't need to remind you all
out there of it. One of the fiercest rivalries in
the NFL, started in nineteen ninety six when the Ravens
joined the NFL. Since then, Pittsburgh leads the series thirty
(04:10):
six to twenty seven, including the five playoff matchups. The
most recent matchup was last year in the wild Card round.
Baltimore has won two in a row in the postseason.
Pittsburgh won six of the first seven meetings between these
two teams, and they've also won eight of the last
eleven games. Mike Tomlin is now twenty two and eighteen
against the Ravens. John Harbaugh seventeen and twenty one against Pittsburgh.
(04:31):
Tomlin and Harbor's thirty eight meetings is the second most
between head coaches all time. In Baltimore, the Steelers are
fifteen to fifteen including playoffs, but have won four of
the past six and six of the past nine in
M and T Banks Stadium. Matt that part there where
I said they Steelers won eight thirty, well, I'm sorry, ahead.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
The most recent matchup wasn't pretty for the Steelers.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
That's exactly where I was going.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
I mentioned that eight out of eleven for the Steelers,
but it is drastically shifted in the other direction for
the Ravens. They combined for five and nineteen rushing yards
in those previous matchups against the Steelers.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Wow, yeah, nice, and you felt every one of them
just like the Bells game.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Really, no question about it.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
Let's take a look at the Ravens defensive side of
the ball to start things off today, they were the
side of the ball that was under the microscope. At
the beginning of the year for Baltimore, it looked like
the Ravens were going to have a wasted season, and
people were blaming the defensive side of things for that
wasted season. But last week was the first time that
(05:32):
Baltimore allowed twenty plus points in a game since Week five,
and they've allowed the second fewest points per game from
Week six to twelve Matt, so this defense has changed
drastically for Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
It has, and in some ways it's similar to last
year where they were having all kinds of problems and
then they made some big changes, and a lot of
the changes took place when they made the Harbor off
of Harbaugh trade. They traded Oway, an edge pass rusher,
maybe even their best edge pass rusher, for a lot
of Gilman, a safety that they're playing at the free
(06:07):
and what happened was it's kind of the opposite of
last year. Last year, they took Kyle Hamilton, who's a
tremendous football player, and put him in the deep middle
and let everyone else just kind of stabilize things. This year,
they get Gilman. They take their first round pick and
take both those guys and move them well off the
ball and bring Hamilton down into the box. Is kind
(06:28):
of like their Paula Malu type guy. But the pass
rush is still so bad, you know, and they tradeed
one of their best pass rushers. They have to generate
pass rush to via blitz, which is why they strengthened
their secondary so they could blitz more, but they had
to give up a good pass rusher to do it,
and really losing Matta Bouque really really early season season
(06:52):
was something that they've just not been able to overcome.
They're not as good at the line of scrimmage as
any time that I can remember.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
No, they definitely aren't.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
I'm glad you brought up Kyle Hamilton there when you
were giving your analysis.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
I think he's fantastic, and you.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Mentioned that he kind of treat him like a Troy
Polamaldo type of player. He's not as good as Troy,
nobody is, but that is kind of the way that
they scheme him up. He's got a lot of freedom.
He shows up at the line of scrimmage a lot.
He and Rokwan Smith are superstars, and so the Ravens
defense has that at least going for them. There are weaknesses,
no doubt, but they have superstar all Pro caliber players
(07:27):
in their secondary and in the middle of that defense with.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Roquan Yeah, and Rokwan's back to playing very well leader
of the defense. Humphrey's still a good corner. But Hamilton's
in contention for best safety in the league. You know,
like I mentioned, he could play deep middle. He can
man up any of the Steelers tight ends. You'll see
him take on guards in the run game, shake them,
(07:51):
go make the play, you know. I mean, like there
are many safeties to get off guard blocks. He can blit.
He does it all.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Yeah, I mean, Steelers linebackers have trouble getting off guard blocks.
So yeah, that's just that. Kyle Hamilton is such a
unique type of player. I want to bring up the
other linebacker too, though, Matt Teddy Buchan and the rookie.
He's having a pretty good rookie campaign, isn't he For
a fourth round pick? And Trenton Simpson, a third round
pick in twenty twenty three, hasn't really been able to
catch on for them. They've kind of been searching for
that tandem ever since Patrick Queen left to join US
(08:20):
and Buchanan doing a pretty good job in his rookie campaign,
isn't he.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Yeah, I don't have a lot more to add, but
that was their plan of attack was we can't afford
Queen and Rokuan, so we know Patrick's going to go,
so we draft Simpson and that was kind of a
miss or at least so far, but it looks like
they've made up for it.
Speaker 3 (08:40):
How's their secondary looking. Matt Marlon Humphrey is just so
damn old and Nate Wiggins is hurt, but he's an
okay player, nothing like spectacular so far in his career.
It feels like they could get more out of the
corners that Kyle Hamilton, of course, is excluded from that.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
Yeah, I'll I'll fight you on Wiggins though, I'll be honest.
He's very lean, but he's one of my favorite young corners.
You like him, Yeah, I think he's got a chance
to be quite good. And now they've a trio with
Safety's with Starks the first round fake Gilman Hamilton who
we mentioned Humphreys is still playing pretty well in my opinion.
(09:20):
Jari Alexandra was a failed experiment, but I think the
back seven is clearly way better than the defensive front.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
That should be the plan of attack for the Steelers
is trying to run the ball, control the line of
scrimmage against that defensive front. And honestly, it's good news
that this is a pass rush that is kind of lacking,
even more so than the Bills last week. I mean,
the Bills had Bosas and Rousseau's. This Ravens team doesn't
even have guys like that. I mean you're looking at
Kyle van Noy out there. So with the banged up
status of the Steelers offensive line, with the banged up
(09:50):
status of your quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it's a good matchup
as far as the minimal pass rush is concerned.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, I would think so. And you should be able
to die their blitzes pretty well. It's a defense you're
familiar with as well. I mean, as organizations go back
to the time possession problem, I really think step one
of fixing that is you just have to run the
ball more.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Yeah, yeah, I think that's obvious. It's very clear, right,
that's what did you put it as? It's like that's
the the symptoms are your time of possession.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
Well, the answer is you got to run the ball more.
That's the medicine that you have to take for it.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Yeah, Like I keep joking, like and I go to
the doctor and say, hey, doc, my time of possession
is really hurting me. Well, k let's get to the
bottom of this thing. Well, there's a lot of roots
to the Steelers problem. But I think step one of
the medication he should give you is, let's how about
a higher percentage of run.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
I want to bring up a mismatch that you identified
it in your stat pack, Matt. The Steelers are so
bad at keeping their drives alive. The only teams to
fail to pick up a down on a higher percentage
of their drives than Pittsburgh are the Raiders and the Titans,
two of the worst teams in the NFL.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
However, teas in the NFL.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
Yeah, However, Baltimore's defense creates a three and out zero
point one five percent of the time at the league's
lowest rate. So this is a team that allows drives
to continue for their opposition. The Steelers don't continue drives
on their offensive side of all. Something's got to give here, either,
The Ravens' ability to allow teams to keep drives alive
(11:32):
is going to give or the Steelers are going to
actually start to get some first downs and not go
three and out for a change.
Speaker 1 (11:37):
Yeah, great point. I mean, it's not the stingiest defense
in terms of what you're probably worst at to smother
you with, So I hesitate to use a term. It
could be a get right game. But as the fact
that it's such a rivalry and these games are always
well except for the last playoff game close in that
(11:58):
and whatnot, maybe get something going and be the more
physical team. One thing we haven't mentioned, but I've been
going out of my way to mention, so I just
want to make sure we do is I hate hate
that the NFL, and frankly I think it's a very
unfair thing that they did. Is two weeks in a row.
The Steelers are going to be at a significant rest disadvantage.
(12:23):
I mean, both these teams that ten days to prepare,
and the more I do this for a living, the
more I think that's a huge advantage for Buffalo and
now Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
No question, can't ignore that.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Looking at the Ravens offensive side of things, you know,
at the beginning of the year, we just mentioned how
the defense was kind of letting them down, and then
the defense really pick it up, especially when Lamar Jackson
got hurt, and they've been kind of carrying the team lately,
where the offense has been struggling now, so they've been
not able to find consistency. As far as complimentary football
is concerned, this is a Ravens offense that's going to
(12:58):
be in twenty one personnel eleven percent of the time,
twenty two personnel six point nine percent of the time,
So you're going to see the fullback a decent amount
of time. They are second in twenty one and sixth
and twenty two personnel in the league.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
And I think all of our listeners know who that is.
That's Patrick Riccard, who isn't even the normal fullback. I
mean he's closer to you know, Spencer Anderson than he
is most fullbacks out there. I mean, a real unique
player and very much part of their identity. They are
power football team in.
Speaker 3 (13:26):
That vein Baltimore throws the ball on fifty one point
five percent of their snaps. Only the Seahawks and Bills
throw it at a lower rate. The identity for the
Ravens has not been hard to figure out for a
long time.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Now.
Speaker 3 (13:38):
This is a team that doesn't hide who they are,
what they want to do, and it hasn't changed much
over the past couple of years.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
True, but they're not in a good spot.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
They're not doing it as well as they used to.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
That's for sure. Like I think every time we've done
the last couple of years, this podcast is a preview show.
The Ravens offensive numbers are they're second in the league, oh,
the first and league they're third in the league. Like
in every they're not like that. And it's not just
because of the time without Lamar. If you give me
(14:11):
a minute, I mean, there's almost every facet of the
offense is a step worse than it used to be.
Like Flowers is a really good player, but I think
he's a two. Bateman's an okay two, but he has
to be the three. Andrews is a step slower. The
both the guards are subpar. Stanley in the right tack
(14:34):
or both. Yeah, they're not great, you know, I mean,
so four fifths of their O line isn't wonderful. Dereck
Henry's a hard guy to ever say anything bad about,
but he also, like Andrew, finally looks a step slower.
And obviously the elephant in the room is the two
time MVP phenomenal quarterback, and he hasn't been saying since
(14:57):
he's been back from injury, they're just not even hard
even running him. He has very few rushing yards per
games in these five games since he returned from injury,
and you watch him and it's obvious that he's not
one hundred percent. Yes, his passing has been off, and
I think a lot of that is the hamstring and
just as lower body mechanics aren't as sharp as they
(15:18):
used to be. But easily the most explosive he's looked
in these five games was last week. He didn't look
like old Lamar, but he was starting to show a
little bit of it. And now if he has ten days,
it just makes me wonder and just kind of knowing
the Steelers' luck and how their season's going. For the
(15:38):
guy who's been not looking like Lamar Jackson for five weeks. Now,
maybe all of a sudden on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
You will now I think it's very clear he's playing
through an injury. He was unbelievable before he got hurt.
The Ravens were losing games, but Lamar was playing at
an MVP level. He didn't just all of a sudden
forget how to run, forget how to play quarterback effectively.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
It's the injury problem.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
But over his pass through games, he's completing just fifty
five percent of his passes and averaging one hundred ninety
seven point three passing yards per game. He has thrown
zero touchdowns and three interceptions in those three games, so
it hasn't been the MVP level Lamar. But I think
you're right, Matt, like he's gonna get better and better
and better, and this might be the the extra rest
(16:19):
that he needed to finally get over that hump.
Speaker 1 (16:22):
I really hope not. But he started the show signs
of being the explosive mover, and I went, oh, Man,
couldn't have played this guy a week ago.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
You know, well, they're gonna be tempted to run, Lamar.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
They're gonna be tempted to run everybody against the Steelers
after what the Bills did to Pittsburgh, going for two
hundred and forty nine rushing yards, the most that the
Steelers have ever surrendered to an opponent at through hinz
Field slash Acrosser Stadium, the most since nineteen seventy five
in Pittsburgh when Buffalo, ironically enough, came in and rushed
for over three hundred yards against the Steelers at three
Rivers Stadium. Baltimore averages five yards per carry, only behind
(16:56):
the Colts. And you mentioned Derrick Henry kind of a
step slower this year. I agree with you there, Matt.
He's a little bit more off the radar than he
usually is, almost a bit of an afterthought as far
as running backs are concerned. Then you pull up his
stats and you realize he's the seventh leading rusher, still
has nine hundred and thirty one yards, and he's averaging
four point seven yards per carry. I mean, even a
down year for him is better than most.
Speaker 1 (17:18):
Yeah, it's funny. I mean I play a lot of
fantasy football, and I'm sure a lot of people do,
and for like three years now, I've avoided him in
my fantasy drafts. You know, oh, he's gonna fall off
a cliff never does you know? And just a remarkable specimen,
an easy Hall of famer. And I don't never cite
these things in my stat pack that we reference so much.
(17:38):
But his like average miles per hour and top speed
and things like that that they track now are noticeably
lower than they were last year. But that doesn't make
him any easier to tackle.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah, no question.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
And Derek Henry now has scored ten plus rushing touchdowns
in eight straight seasons. He is second behind only La
Danian Tomlinson for such seasons. I mean, you're going up
against a Hall of famer. Even though he is slowing
down a bit, it is remarkable to see this kind
of longevity out of a back that size that like
you said that, he's never really fallen off the cliff.
He's just kind of taking his foot off the gas
(18:14):
a little bit more this year.
Speaker 2 (18:16):
But that is priority.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Number one for the Steelers defense is stopping him, especially
with Lamar Jackson showing that he's not really willing to
run the ball as much lately with that injury that
he's dealing with. So getting Henry on the ground slowing
him down is the biggest key. That was their biggest
failure in the previous two matchups, including the wild card round.
And you know, you kind of had this sense in
the offseason, Matt that a lot of their focus on
(18:39):
the defensive side of the ball. A lot of their
focus on the offseason moves were going to be to
stop Derrek Henry, to stop the Ravens.
Speaker 1 (18:46):
Right because they got embarrassed in that playoff game and
it didn't say well. And to their point or to
their credits, they didn't just sit on their hands. You know,
they drafted guys them and they went out and got
he got very deep on the D line. And now coincidentally,
I guess the D line's depth is really being tested.
And the two guys they trotted out there last week,
(19:08):
the two bottom of the roster D linemen WNU and
what's the space and the other recent addition really shouldn't
be out there. You know, they were counting on the
lowries and those type of dudes to kind of be
your depth pieces, and they're kind of not in the equation.
And I think it goes without saying. I mean, the
Jackson Henry combination might be the best running backfield in
(19:33):
NFL history and definitely the most unique. I mean, they
couldn't be any more different, and you're not getting the
one version of either. But if ninety percent is still
good enough to do what the Bills did to you
You're in big trouble. You know.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Now.
Speaker 3 (19:51):
The Ravens are a run first offense, but they will
throw the ball. Lamar Jackson, before the injury, was just
throwing the ball fantastically this season. Rashad Bateman, J Flowers,
DeAndre Hopkins. That's the trio of wide receivers that he
has to play with. Still have Mark Andrews old reliable.
As far as the tight end is concerned, Isaiah Likely
(20:12):
a young up and coming tight end. I mean, I
really do love their pass catchers, Matt like. I think
they have a good receiving room here. It's in the
right it's heading in the right direction for the first
time in Baltimore.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
I agree mostly, But I do think Andrews is starting
to slow a little. We talked about it earlier, that
maybe they're one pass catcher away from really being a
top group of receivers. Although I do think Likely is
a very good player. I think Flowers is a very
scary go to the ball in his hands. Hopkins hasn't
(20:46):
given him much. I mean, he's more of a name
than he is an asset at this point, right, and
you hope he doesn't get right. But Lamar's missed some
open guys the last few weeks too.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
Let's take a look at some of the key matchups here,
Matt before we get out of here. Steelers quarterback Aaron
Rodgers versus Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton. Now, we talked a
lot about Kyle Hamilton in this podcast already. He is
such a unique player. They employ him in a lot
of different ways. But that's kind of what the superpower
of Aaron Rodgers is, right going up against a player
(21:20):
like this that might show up here and then the
next play he's there, and I got to kind of
keep track of where he is at all times. Tough
matchup for Rogers against Hamilton.
Speaker 1 (21:30):
Yeah, and there's been a couple of these matchups we've
talked about over the course of the year where maybe
it's Flores or you know, I mean, the guys that
throw a lot at you, and Hamilton definitely qualifies. They
use them in a wide variety of manners. But I
do think that's Rogers' best asset at this point too,
is understanding what the defense is trying to accomplish.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
You know, since we're talking about Rogers, where are you
at as far as playing him or not playing him.
He clearly couldn't take a snap under center in that
game last week against the Bills, and I think that
just kind of, you know, crumples up a lot of
the stuff you're doing in the playbook, especially running the football,
and throws it in the trash. But at the same time, Matt,
I'm not, you know, really confident in Mason Rudolph. The
(22:10):
other options that the Steelers have that maybe Rogers hindered
so much where he can't take a snap under center,
still is your best choice.
Speaker 1 (22:18):
Yeah, it's a tough spot they're in right now. And
Happy birthday Aaron Rodgers forty two birthday. Yeah, how about that?
They went out and got him a nice old present.
And now Adam Feeling today, thirty.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Five year old wide receiver. Happy birthday.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Sure, happy birthday. Who neither's perfect at the moment, and
that's scary. I kind of expected more from Rudolph. And
maybe it's unfair because he's only came out for such
a short stint last week and threw a bad pick,
but he didn't complete the deep balls. And I can
(22:55):
at least argue, but there's a lot of hindsight here.
Maybe the Steeler beat the Bears with Rogers just because
maybe he completes two or three of the deep balls
of Rudolph couldn't right. I don't think he would have
aligned wrong late in the game with Rogers in there.
But he's not the player right now. Maybe this week's
better because I don't think he'll do more under center
(23:17):
against Baltimore, but he's definitely not the player lately than
he was the first month of the season.
Speaker 3 (23:23):
And our other key matchup to keep an eye on
is Steelers linebackers versus of course Ravens running back Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
The Steelers' linebackers really do struggle against the run. One
area that I saw them really struggle with this week.
We kind of predicted this on the pregame show without
Harmon up front to eat up a lot of those bodies.
Guards were getting to the second level and Queen and
Wilson were having trouble shedding those blocks. Don't want that
to have to happen against the Ravens. And you have
to deal with Ricard as well if you're a linebacker
(23:53):
having to shed off of him to get to.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
Henry, Yeah, as well as a multitude of tight end
and he's not the best player in the world. But
you know, Charlie Kohler is a big blocking type guy.
I mean, their run game is hard to deal with,
but at least it's familiar. Queen's on the injury report
when we record this. Hopefully he's around for his old team.
(24:16):
Maybe he has a little something extra, but Henry in
Their run game, of course, presents a large challenge.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
One o'clock in Baltimore. Six and six Stealers, six and
six Ravens. Control of the AFC North Division is at stake.
Matt Williamson and myself. We'll get it all started at
nine am on DVE Formatt, I'm Tom, thanks as always
for giving us a listen, and we'll talk to you
next week on our next edition of The Advance Scout
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