December 31, 2024 • 23 mins
Matt Williamson and Tom Opferman break down the Steelers regular season finale with the Bengals.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
It all comes down to this week eighteen is here Steelers.
Of course, I've clinched a playoff spot, but the seeding
is up for grabs and the AFC North is still
technically up for grabs as well. Cincinnati's eight and eight.
They're hoping to get in. They're gonna need a mountain
of help in order to get that last spot. Matt.
It kind of feels a little Steelers ish right the
situation the Bengals are, and we've been in this position
(00:27):
so much recently. We need this to happen, that to happen,
this to happen, and to win to get in, and
that's exactly where Cincinnati finds themselves. But my point saying
that to open this podcast, Matt, is you're getting a
full effort from the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night. They're
playing for their playoff lives one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
And yeah, I guess so. I mean, I hadn't thought
of it from a recent Steelers history perspective other than
they have an elite quarterback and they score a ton
of points and their offense is awesome, and the Steelers
offense wasn't awesome in those days, you know, I mean
kind of a different style of team. But you're one
hundred percent right. I mean, the Bengals have successfully been
(01:04):
playing playoff football now for about a month and this
is just kind of what they do to survive. And
so it's just another game for them where hey, doesn't
matter what we have to do, fake punts, whatever it
has to you know, we blitz the house whatever. We
gotta leave this game with a W no matter what.
And their quarterbacks, forre you aren't good at that lately.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
This stat is very concerning. It popped out to me
when you sent the stat pack to me this morning.
The Steelers, of course, are on a three game losing streak. Well,
those three consecutive losses are by fourteen plus more points,
and that's the first time that's happened since weeks five
through seven of nineteen eighty eight. Now, the current record
of those three teams as of December twenty sixth, when
(01:46):
you put some of this together, was thirty eight and nine.
They've gotten improved records since then, but they played tough
teams during that stretch, don't get me wrong, but I
think the lack of competitiveness, as illustrated by that fourteen
plus point margin of defeat in each game, was the
biggest concern coming away from that death Stretch.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Yeah, I mean, I think I'm sure you and I
had this conversation and we've all had, you know, going
into that stretch, that hey, maybe if you get one
out of the three, that's a successful trip. You know,
this is going to be awful. Most teams in the league,
I think, would be happy to get one. A lot
of teams would have no chance to get any, especially
when you consider that the Steelers were on the road
(02:25):
a fair amount and then didn't get the Week fourteen
by like Houston and Baltimore and really were behind the
eight ball even before they started. And then unfortunately, the
first game of the stretch is the one where your
defense basically played the entire second half, you know, So
I think that had a big ripple effect in terms of,
(02:46):
you know, just wearing down the defense the overall, you know,
the sequence in which it happened. You know, maybe if
you didn't have to, you know, endure the first leg
of the marathon being the most difficult terms of time,
of possession and time of possession is something I'm gonna
bring up like one hundred times in this podcast. I
think that's really the key to victory going forward. But still,
(03:10):
you're right, I mean, did at any point, you know,
past the first quarter of those games, even when they
showed signs of life in the middle of the games,
did you think they were really in it or really
had a chance to win the football game? I didn't,
you know. I mean, some people are like, well, if
Nausey doesn't drop that pitch, I'm like, yeah, but that
(03:31):
doesn't mean you're just gonna roll right through the Eagles
defense and score. I mean, like and that you're gonna
be able to stop them all of a sudden.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
You know, well, what's that last part that I think
is going to be the tricky part in this game.
It's still stopping them all of a sudden because it's
it's an unstoppable offense. It took forty four points the
first time you met this team in Cincinnati to beat
Joe Burrow in the Cincinnati offense. So it's gonna take
another big effort from the offensive side of the ball,
I believe. Before we get into breaking down this individual matchup.
A quick refresher on the series history for everybody out there.
(04:00):
It began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads the series
seventy one to thirty nine. Two of those games occurred
in the postseason in six and in twenty sixteen, with
the Steelers winning both of those contests six on the
way to a Super Bowl. The Steelers swept Cincinnati last
season and hoped to again in twenty twenty four. Pittsburgh
was recently on an eleven game winning streak between December
of twenty fifteen to November of twenty twenty. In this series,
(04:22):
Cincinnati has won just thirteen of the fifty one games
between these divisional rivals that have been played in the
two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty seven to eleven vers Cincinnati,
including the playoff win in twenty sixteen. The Bengals are
three and three when Joe Burrow starts, though against the
Pittsburgh Steelers, and Burrow didn't finish one of the losses
because of an injury that he suffered in that game,
(04:43):
So it's not like a Lamar Jackson effect when it
comes to Joe Burrow, where you have this nine he's
pretty good against you, although three losses against Joe Burrow
is pretty impressive. And I will say this, Matt. We're
going to start with the Bengals defense first. But this
just brought this up to my head or to my mind.
They seem to turn Burrow over more than most teams do.
Like Burrough throws an interception to the Steelers, fumbles the
ball against the Steelers more than his typical performance.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Might be right about that, I haven't given it a
whole lot of thought. I mean my counter to that
would be the Steelers, historically, I mean, over this era,
are really good against the run. Do they make him
throw an even higher percentage than he already does? I mean,
then this year only the Browns are throwing the ball
at a higher percentage. I mean, we know this is
(05:27):
a pass happy team. And oh, by the way, Chase
Brown got injured late in that game, and he gets
all their carries. So they even just gonna be like,
screw it, We're gonna throw it every down, maybe you know,
and therefore there's a better chance you're gonna get picks.
Of course, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Well to your point there, Matt, I'm looking I wanted
to look this up, so I just didn't look like
I was talking out of my ass. In the six games,
he has nine interceptions against the Steelers. It's pretty good.
It's pretty big for someone like Joe that right, Yeah,
one and a half per game. But to your point
of the volume, he's averaging thirty five point three pass
attempts against the Steelers in his career. He's throw the
ball all over the place.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Against sense, and that makes perfect sense because I mean,
the Steelers are historically a good run defense and better
in the line of scrimmage, and the Bengals and even
the mix in years, you would think their best path
to victory is Joe throw it all over the place
against these guys.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Well, we'll get to Joe and throwing the ball all
over the place in just a second. I want to
touch on the Bengals defense, and it'll honestly probably be
brief because it's all about the offensive side of the
ball when it comes to this team. The only things
I really want to know is is this defense playing
better recently while they're on this four game winning streak,
And that's a very low bar for them to clear,
and even before this stretch, when they might be playing better.
(06:37):
This has to be one of the most historically bad
defenses in NFL history. Statistically that might not be the case,
but my eye test is telling me so because of
how great the offense is.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Yeah, and I'll be honest, Like when the Steelers beat
them the first time around, my impressions were, like everybody else,
great win, boy, you put up a ton of yards,
you know, five hundred plus yards of offense. And then
I watched the second time, and my realizations came to,
you know, to fruition in that, man, this is the
(07:07):
worst defense I've seen in a while. So to your point,
I think they're better than that. I mean, I don't
think they're not worst defense in the league right now,
because I think at that point, I mean, we know
this season, you know, things change throughout the year that
I think it's better now than then. But one of
the keys is they've made some big plays on defense.
(07:28):
They have some takeaways. Since the Steelers saw them last
they had six sacks I think against the Browns. You know,
so at least you mitigate getting gashed in the running
pass game over and over if you can at least
turn them over or you know, have some negative plays
on the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
So does that mean the Steelers going to have to
walk a bit of a tight rope on offense where
you don't want to give them those splash plays because
that's they're only out defensively. But at the same time, Matt,
you can't go into a conservative shell and try to
win a game thirteen to ten against this offense.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah, that's I mean, it's a fantastic point because you know,
you know you're not going to hold this offense under
twenty or probably under twenty five. I mean, if you
told me right now that Burrow only put up twenty
five points, I take it take all day long. So
I don't think you can just hand it the nauseing
three times in a row and a cloud of dust
and hope for the best. But I think you just
(08:21):
trust your veteran quarterback when it's all said and done.
I mean, I definitely think Wilson's to blame for too
many of the sacks of late, but I also think
he's phenomenal protecting the football. And I think that Wilson,
I'm not really giving him a hard time, but over
the past three games, realized, especially when Pickens wasn't there
and some of those splits are really bizarre or you
(08:43):
know strong that, hey, I can't just game manage this
thing against Philadelphia, against Baltimore, against Kansas City. I might
have to play a little above my capabilities for us
to actually get a win. So I've kind of excused
a little bit of how Wilson's lately in that I
think he has to change his frame of mind. But
(09:05):
maybe that's true for this one and everyone going forward
the rest of the year too, which we'll see if
he's capable.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
You know, he was certainly capable of the first time
around again Cincinnati as well. Thrown for four hundred and
fourteen yards. Is Trey Hendrickson still just the one man
wrecking crew on that defensive side of the ball. Fourteen sacks? Yeah,
they had five sacks last week against the Browns, though,
but that's playing against Orian Thompson Robinson, a very inexperienced,
quite frankly bad quarterback.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Yeah, and Denver this past week was only two r things.
So it's not like they're a great pass rushing unit.
I'm sure when we previewed the game the first time
around that well, a huge key is making sure you
get you know, four hands on Hendrickson and chip him
and help Dan Moore. And yes, that's true, and the
Steelers had a lot of success against Henderson. He did
(09:52):
not have a big game and more played quite well,
but every offensive coordinator in the league says that, and
he still has fourteen sacks or whatever.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Now, on the offensive side of the ball, that's where
Cincinnati's really going to hurt the Steelers. They're averaging six
point six yards per play, or they did in the
first meeting against Pittsburgh. They average five point eight yards
per play for the season. And the concerning part, Matt,
is that the Steelers they're giving up six point one
yards per play defensively over the past three weeks. And
I mean, Baltimore and Philadelphia are great offenses. Cincinnati's not
(10:20):
a drop off at all offensively.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
No, And I think it's a phenomenal offense. But and
this could I mean it's sort of a good thing
bad thing situation. I think they're passing games phenomenal, and frankly,
I don't even think they're protection is all that good.
And without Brown, I don't think they're going to run
the ball well or at all. I think their offensive
(10:44):
line has been really mitigated by Burrow's unbelievable ability to
move and navigate the pocket. He's gotten so much better
at that, and.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
It's a fluid right, Matt Like, It's just it's the
right step every time. He's not the most athletic person,
but it just.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Right absolutely feels it and just moves subtly. And you know,
I mean, he's more athletic than Dan Marino or Tom
Brady or Peyton Manning. But those guys were subtle movers
within the pocket, and he has that plus because he
can still scramble, throw on the move, make a play
with his feet. He's definitely improved in that area from
(11:21):
a season ago. But his offensive line really hasn't done
in much favors either. I mean, it's really been a
three man show and sprinkle in a little Gescki and
those guys, you know, do you see it? It's a
good three man show.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
He's not. He might be the most accurate quarterback in
the NFL, of your mind. Completion percentage doesn't bear that out.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
But do you see a quartercasher of the football though maybe.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Okay, that's exactly where I was going with. Yeah, have
you seen a quarterback recently with more wow kind of passes.
Because the one touchdown to T. Higgins against Denver in
the third down pass he had to T Higgins where
he stepped up in the pocket and just zipped one
in between two defenders. I mean, those those are like
when Rogers was in his prime, those type of throws
that would just have my jaw drop going wow. No
(12:03):
one else can do that, not even Mahomes sometimes can
do that.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
And I think he's even gotten better at that. I mean,
like this is a bigger picture conversation, but you know,
these quarterbacks, they don't their quarterback coach, their offensive coordinator
generally is not working on fundamentals and things, you know.
I mean, that's usually a quarterback guru behind the scenes.
And I'm sure this past offseason he drastically worked on
(12:29):
his foot quickness, ability to throw while on the move,
a little bit of his even his arm strength seems
a little bit better than when he came in the league.
And I've always considered him as this kind of that
iceman from top Gun just you know, maybe it's not
as flashy as mav but it's just time and time again,
you know, consistent. But now he's got a little Maverick
(12:49):
to him too, you know.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Well, this is now.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
He's unbelievable. I mean, is great.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Eight straight games with two hundred and fifty plus yards
and three or more touchdown passes. He's the fourth quarterback
in NFL history with ten such games. He's the first
one to do it in eight straight games. And he
has forty four total touchdowns against just eight turnovers this season.
And the numbers are fantastic because he's such an elite quarterback, Matt,
but he might have the best weaponry in football too.
(13:16):
He might have the best one to two puncher at least,
it's arguable in all of football. And Jamar Chase is
having a triple crown type of season. We'll get to
him in a second. T Higgins has come on so
strong lately. He's catching, He's had a touchdown in every
single one of their wins over the winning streak, and
he just went off against Denver on Saturday, catching three
all three of Joe Burrow's touchdown passes. Last time around,
(13:37):
Joey Porter Junior took on T Higgins as his one
on one matchup. According to coach Tomin, they're optimistic that
Joey will be out there Saturday against the Angles, do
you kind of deploy the same strategy where Minka shades
to Chase and you double Chase and you go one
on one with Higgins and Porter.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Maybe, however, go that great in the.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
First time around? Remember that was like eight holding penalties
on Porter.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Yeah, that's right, it wasn't awesome. And is he compromised?
I mean, what kind of shape is he in? Is
he gutting it out? Or is he perfectly fine? I
don't know. This is kind of a bigger picture conversation
in terms of the Steelers secondary, but it worries me
a lot, to be honest with you. I mean, Sutton
has been a real problem Beanie Bishop frankly is what
(14:20):
he is and has a very low ceiling. And Dale
and I on the Drive have been lately just throwing
out the idea of and maybe this isn't the best
game to employ it, but maybe Minka is your slot
from now on and eliminate all those problems and case's
you're deep middle And I would even throw out there again,
this might not be the time to do it, It
might be too late, but I wouldn't mind seeing more
(14:42):
of Trice over Jackson, who I just don't think is
a very good man coverage player. But it's not exactly
experiment for next year type of you know, type of
the part of the year. So I don't know, maybe
it's just left right it. But then they're gonna, you know,
find their matchups, because if you watch that Bengals Broncos game, Yes,
(15:04):
they threw it certain some who I think is the
best quarter league Joe. He's not as good as Certain
yet or probably ever will be. That he's awesome, And
yeah they threw at him some because he often was
on Chase. But really all Burrow did was just attack
every corner not named Certain and just rip them apart.
And I don't know how the Steelers answered that.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Yeah, I don't know either. And even if you do
deploy the same kind of coverage as the first time
around against you know, portergoing against Higgins and then you
double Chase, Chase is still going to have a big
game being doubled. It's just the type of receiver he is.
He's going for the triple crown most receptions, most receiving yards,
and most receiving touchdowns in the league. I mean, have
you ever seen a quarterback wide receiver do this and
(15:45):
the team is just not anywhere near what they should
be record wise.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
Agreat Yeah, I mean I think he and Justin Jefferson
are the top two in the league right now.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Think about how Burrow had them both at LSU.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
How scary that he's unbelieva right, and I'd be shocked.
I just looked at it this morning. If Chase doesn't
win the Triple Crown, I mean, the only one that
could catch him is Saint Brown happens to have like
eight more receptions than him, and we you know, the
final week the season and that's not going to happen.
So he's gonna win the Triple Crown. And you're right,
I mean in a way, it's unfortunate because this is
(16:19):
as good of threesome. You know, you mentioned it before.
I think the Eagles are the only pairing of receivers
that are in the same realm as these two.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Up there too, because Addison's come on pretty strong this year. Yeah,
just not quite in that class yet.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
I mean, if you mixed it in Hockinson, yes, without that, no,
you know, I think Addison's well behind Higgins because where
Ilse going with this is I think Higgins is having
clearly his best season as a pro, and he's always
been good and that maybe it's contract year whatever, I
don't care what it is. He's been phenomenal when on
the field, where before he was always just kind of great.
(16:58):
Now he's phenomenal. So there isn't a great answer. You're
happy that there's only really two, but like I mentioned Geski, Yeah,
so twelve targets last week, yeah, yeah, And really during
the Taylor Burrow Europe the Bengals have been number one
(17:19):
or number two in the league in their usage of
eleven personnel three receivers. Well, we know Tyler Boyd left
and they drafted Burton, they have Joshavas, but they've really
made Gaseki that third guy, you know, so he's been
their big slot. He isn't a tight end at all,
but they're making him a wide receiver. It just doesn't
show up as eleven personnel, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Yeah, And I was just going to bring that up
about Kasiki. It seems like he's really immersed as that
third option for Joe Burrow in this offense. And the
last thing I wanted to bring up before we get
into our key matchups here is is Burrow was sacked
seven times against the Broncos on Saturday, Matt But when
he's blitzed, he still averaged just two point two three
second average time to throw, and his numbers this year
(18:04):
against the Blitz when he doesn't have that much time
to throw are just insane. He torches blitz. You don't
want to list show Burrow. But the seven sacks, is
that just Joe holding onto the ball for too long,
trying to make a play happen, and he just doesn't
give a crap if he gets sacked.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Maybe because I mean that's always been a Burrow. I
think that's in his DNA, you know, like a lot
of early remember early in his career, he's getting the
crap beat out of him. And he's had so many
injuries and no one ever, ever ever questioned his toughness.
But like every training camp he had, like a appendectomy
or is coming off a knee or whatever I mean,
and Cincinnati he's got to do a better job protecting him,
(18:41):
and they did invest in some linemen. But I think
a lot of it is just he's so tough that
if it means I'm going to hold this ball for
point five seconds longer to complete it and I take
one in the chin. He's taking that option every time,
you know, so yes and no, I think their line
is highly questionable. And Mems left the game, and I
(19:02):
doubt he plays in this one. The dude to replaced
him as someone's i'd never heard of. The interior ro
line needs work. And Orlando Brown's a little overrated, and Burrow,
I mean you kind of touched on it. What he's
doing under two point five seconds insane, is insane. And oh,
by the way, the Steelers defense is like worse than
(19:23):
the league against ball coming out quick. You know, see
Pat Mahomes and that's what everyone's doomed. And you know,
nullify the Steeler pass rush. So if the Steelers lose
this game, I bet it's death by a thousand paper cuts.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
You know you hear those numbers for you. You laid
them out in your stat pack. He leads all quarterbacks
and completions two hundred and forty eight in yards undred
and thirty four on passes under two and a half
seconds this season, and he's also tied with Baker Mayfield
and touchdowns on such passes they each have twenty. And
then to your point, on the Steelers. They have allowed
the most yards one eight hundred and ten and have
the worst EPA expected points added on passes under two
(19:58):
and a half seconds this season. I think the game
plan is pretty clear for the Bengals against that Steelers
defense exactly.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
And what worries me, and this goes back to kind
of what we were talking about with Jackson and Trice,
is I don't the best way to combat that, you know,
like you watch the KC game, they just nickeled and
dimed you to death and utter efficiency and phenomenal foot
you know, quarterback play. You'd love to have two Joey
porters that could come up and press and at least
(20:26):
disrupt them at the line of scrimmage. And I only
see one press man corner on this team, and it
sounds like he's gonna play luckily. But you know, you
just can't trust the secondary to play man time and
time again against these guys. So you almost have to
just kind of grin and Barrett while he just gets
the ball out and nickels and dimes.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
You have to score a lot of points. That that's
how you have to be.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
That's score yeh, tackle the catch. I mean, like Jamar
Chase is.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I'm glad we brought such a for the Steelers now too,
So yeah, that can't continue. In this game will be
huge key matchups. You've got Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown
versus Steelers outside linebacker Alex high Smith. You're right about Brown,
he is overratedhis Smith shoul kick his ass in this game.
He really should. This is another one of those games
where the tackles should get their asses kicked by Watton
(21:16):
high Smith And hopefully it doesn't continue the trend where
that's the case going into the game and they have
a relatively quiet game play out on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Yeah, and I didn't think Brown was great the first
time around. If you watch Hard Knocks, you know, coach
Tomlin's talking about, well what high Smith did to him,
you know, and the right and oh, by the way,
Miles garretton Division two. You know, there's other good pass rushers.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
But you know, but yeah, Ravens always lead the league
in sacks.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Yeah, right, right, so it's kind of important. But yeah,
I think they're overpaying the left tackle and he's the
best of the lineman and I don't think he's phenomenal
now and.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Then you have the other tackle defensive end matchup. On
the other side of things, Dan Moore against Bengals d
n Trey Hendrickson. I mean, this is the only impact
player on the defensive side of the ball man.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
I know, we know anywhere else efect.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
But I know we're talking about they've been bringing more
splash to the table, but Hendrickson's this. He might be
the sack king at the end of the year. I mean,
he's the only legitimately good player on that defense. And
it's it's unbelievable to say that about an NFL defense
on a team that is eight and eight.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
So I've been getting this and I said it going
in the last game. You know that a huge Like okay,
I mentioned the Eagles. The Eagles are paying a quarterback
and two wide receivers, you know, and people are like, well,
they can't afford Higgins, Like, well, some teams can if
you don't need seven new starters on defense and three
new offensive linemen. You know, Like, that's really where I
(22:39):
think their offseasons at where they're gonna be in the
market for like seven new defensive starters.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Steelers and Bengals Saturday at eight o'clock flex into that
Saturday primetime spot. The AFC North is playing on Saturday.
You got the Ravens and the Browns at four point
thirty and then eight o'clock for the Bengals and the Steelers.
So the Steelers will know if they're playing for the
AFC North or not. Come kickoff of that game and
then have the can inclusion of Steelers Bengals, that playoff
picture and the seating for the Steelers will become all
the more clear Formatt Williamson, I'm Tom Opperman, Thanks as
(23:07):
always for giving us a listen, and we'll be back
again next week previewing the Wildcard round matchup between either
the Texans, Ravens, or the Chargers. Those are your three
options if you're the Pittsburgh Steelers. For Matt, I'm Tom,
Thanks as always for listening to the Advanced Scout
We got some work to do.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
This is the Advanced Scout with Tom Opperman and Mac Williamson.
Speaker 1 (00:07):
It all comes down to this week eighteen is here Steelers.
Of course, I've clinched a playoff spot, but the seeding
is up for grabs and the AFC North is still
technically up for grabs as well. Cincinnati's eight and eight.
They're hoping to get in. They're gonna need a mountain
of help in order to get that last spot. Matt.
It kind of feels a little Steelers ish right the
situation the Bengals are, and we've been in this position
(00:27):
so much recently. We need this to happen, that to happen,
this to happen, and to win to get in, and
that's exactly where Cincinnati finds themselves. But my point saying
that to open this podcast, Matt, is you're getting a
full effort from the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday night. They're
playing for their playoff lives one hundred percent.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
And yeah, I guess so. I mean, I hadn't thought
of it from a recent Steelers history perspective other than
they have an elite quarterback and they score a ton
of points and their offense is awesome, and the Steelers
offense wasn't awesome in those days, you know, I mean
kind of a different style of team. But you're one
hundred percent right. I mean, the Bengals have successfully been
(01:04):
playing playoff football now for about a month and this
is just kind of what they do to survive. And
so it's just another game for them where hey, doesn't
matter what we have to do, fake punts, whatever it
has to you know, we blitz the house whatever. We
gotta leave this game with a W no matter what.
And their quarterbacks, forre you aren't good at that lately.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
This stat is very concerning. It popped out to me
when you sent the stat pack to me this morning.
The Steelers, of course, are on a three game losing streak. Well,
those three consecutive losses are by fourteen plus more points,
and that's the first time that's happened since weeks five
through seven of nineteen eighty eight. Now, the current record
of those three teams as of December twenty sixth, when
(01:46):
you put some of this together, was thirty eight and nine.
They've gotten improved records since then, but they played tough
teams during that stretch, don't get me wrong, but I
think the lack of competitiveness, as illustrated by that fourteen
plus point margin of defeat in each game, was the
biggest concern coming away from that death Stretch.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Yeah, I mean, I think I'm sure you and I
had this conversation and we've all had, you know, going
into that stretch, that hey, maybe if you get one
out of the three, that's a successful trip. You know,
this is going to be awful. Most teams in the league,
I think, would be happy to get one. A lot
of teams would have no chance to get any, especially
when you consider that the Steelers were on the road
(02:25):
a fair amount and then didn't get the Week fourteen
by like Houston and Baltimore and really were behind the
eight ball even before they started. And then unfortunately, the
first game of the stretch is the one where your
defense basically played the entire second half, you know, So
I think that had a big ripple effect in terms of,
(02:46):
you know, just wearing down the defense the overall, you know,
the sequence in which it happened. You know, maybe if
you didn't have to, you know, endure the first leg
of the marathon being the most difficult terms of time,
of possession and time of possession is something I'm gonna
bring up like one hundred times in this podcast. I
think that's really the key to victory going forward. But still,
(03:10):
you're right, I mean, did at any point, you know,
past the first quarter of those games, even when they
showed signs of life in the middle of the games,
did you think they were really in it or really
had a chance to win the football game? I didn't,
you know. I mean, some people are like, well, if
Nausey doesn't drop that pitch, I'm like, yeah, but that
(03:31):
doesn't mean you're just gonna roll right through the Eagles
defense and score. I mean, like and that you're gonna
be able to stop them all of a sudden.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
You know, well, what's that last part that I think
is going to be the tricky part in this game.
It's still stopping them all of a sudden because it's
it's an unstoppable offense. It took forty four points the
first time you met this team in Cincinnati to beat
Joe Burrow in the Cincinnati offense. So it's gonna take
another big effort from the offensive side of the ball,
I believe. Before we get into breaking down this individual matchup.
A quick refresher on the series history for everybody out there.
(04:00):
It began in nineteen seventy and Pittsburgh leads the series
seventy one to thirty nine. Two of those games occurred
in the postseason in six and in twenty sixteen, with
the Steelers winning both of those contests six on the
way to a Super Bowl. The Steelers swept Cincinnati last
season and hoped to again in twenty twenty four. Pittsburgh
was recently on an eleven game winning streak between December
of twenty fifteen to November of twenty twenty. In this series,
(04:22):
Cincinnati has won just thirteen of the fifty one games
between these divisional rivals that have been played in the
two thousands. Mike Tomlin is twenty seven to eleven vers Cincinnati,
including the playoff win in twenty sixteen. The Bengals are
three and three when Joe Burrow starts, though against the
Pittsburgh Steelers, and Burrow didn't finish one of the losses
because of an injury that he suffered in that game,
(04:43):
So it's not like a Lamar Jackson effect when it
comes to Joe Burrow, where you have this nine he's
pretty good against you, although three losses against Joe Burrow
is pretty impressive. And I will say this, Matt. We're
going to start with the Bengals defense first. But this
just brought this up to my head or to my mind.
They seem to turn Burrow over more than most teams do.
Like Burrough throws an interception to the Steelers, fumbles the
ball against the Steelers more than his typical performance.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Might be right about that, I haven't given it a
whole lot of thought. I mean my counter to that
would be the Steelers, historically, I mean, over this era,
are really good against the run. Do they make him
throw an even higher percentage than he already does? I mean,
then this year only the Browns are throwing the ball
at a higher percentage. I mean, we know this is
(05:27):
a pass happy team. And oh, by the way, Chase
Brown got injured late in that game, and he gets
all their carries. So they even just gonna be like,
screw it, We're gonna throw it every down, maybe you know,
and therefore there's a better chance you're gonna get picks.
Of course, you know.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Well to your point there, Matt, I'm looking I wanted
to look this up, so I just didn't look like
I was talking out of my ass. In the six games,
he has nine interceptions against the Steelers. It's pretty good.
It's pretty big for someone like Joe that right, Yeah,
one and a half per game. But to your point
of the volume, he's averaging thirty five point three pass
attempts against the Steelers in his career. He's throw the
ball all over the place.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Against sense, and that makes perfect sense because I mean,
the Steelers are historically a good run defense and better
in the line of scrimmage, and the Bengals and even
the mix in years, you would think their best path
to victory is Joe throw it all over the place
against these guys.
Speaker 1 (06:16):
Well, we'll get to Joe and throwing the ball all
over the place in just a second. I want to
touch on the Bengals defense, and it'll honestly probably be
brief because it's all about the offensive side of the
ball when it comes to this team. The only things
I really want to know is is this defense playing
better recently while they're on this four game winning streak,
And that's a very low bar for them to clear,
and even before this stretch, when they might be playing better.
(06:37):
This has to be one of the most historically bad
defenses in NFL history. Statistically that might not be the case,
but my eye test is telling me so because of
how great the offense is.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Yeah, and I'll be honest, Like when the Steelers beat
them the first time around, my impressions were, like everybody else,
great win, boy, you put up a ton of yards,
you know, five hundred plus yards of offense. And then
I watched the second time, and my realizations came to,
you know, to fruition in that, man, this is the
(07:07):
worst defense I've seen in a while. So to your point,
I think they're better than that. I mean, I don't
think they're not worst defense in the league right now,
because I think at that point, I mean, we know
this season, you know, things change throughout the year that
I think it's better now than then. But one of
the keys is they've made some big plays on defense.
(07:28):
They have some takeaways. Since the Steelers saw them last
they had six sacks I think against the Browns. You know,
so at least you mitigate getting gashed in the running
pass game over and over if you can at least
turn them over or you know, have some negative plays
on the quarterback.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
So does that mean the Steelers going to have to
walk a bit of a tight rope on offense where
you don't want to give them those splash plays because
that's they're only out defensively. But at the same time, Matt,
you can't go into a conservative shell and try to
win a game thirteen to ten against this offense.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Yeah, that's I mean, it's a fantastic point because you know,
you know you're not going to hold this offense under
twenty or probably under twenty five. I mean, if you
told me right now that Burrow only put up twenty
five points, I take it take all day long. So
I don't think you can just hand it the nauseing
three times in a row and a cloud of dust
and hope for the best. But I think you just
(08:21):
trust your veteran quarterback when it's all said and done.
I mean, I definitely think Wilson's to blame for too
many of the sacks of late, but I also think
he's phenomenal protecting the football. And I think that Wilson,
I'm not really giving him a hard time, but over
the past three games, realized, especially when Pickens wasn't there
and some of those splits are really bizarre or you
(08:43):
know strong that, hey, I can't just game manage this
thing against Philadelphia, against Baltimore, against Kansas City. I might
have to play a little above my capabilities for us
to actually get a win. So I've kind of excused
a little bit of how Wilson's lately in that I
think he has to change his frame of mind. But
(09:05):
maybe that's true for this one and everyone going forward
the rest of the year too, which we'll see if
he's capable.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
You know, he was certainly capable of the first time
around again Cincinnati as well. Thrown for four hundred and
fourteen yards. Is Trey Hendrickson still just the one man
wrecking crew on that defensive side of the ball. Fourteen sacks? Yeah,
they had five sacks last week against the Browns, though,
but that's playing against Orian Thompson Robinson, a very inexperienced,
quite frankly bad quarterback.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Yeah, and Denver this past week was only two r things.
So it's not like they're a great pass rushing unit.
I'm sure when we previewed the game the first time
around that well, a huge key is making sure you
get you know, four hands on Hendrickson and chip him
and help Dan Moore. And yes, that's true, and the
Steelers had a lot of success against Henderson. He did
(09:52):
not have a big game and more played quite well,
but every offensive coordinator in the league says that, and
he still has fourteen sacks or whatever.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Now, on the offensive side of the ball, that's where
Cincinnati's really going to hurt the Steelers. They're averaging six
point six yards per play, or they did in the
first meeting against Pittsburgh. They average five point eight yards
per play for the season. And the concerning part, Matt,
is that the Steelers they're giving up six point one
yards per play defensively over the past three weeks. And
I mean, Baltimore and Philadelphia are great offenses. Cincinnati's not
(10:20):
a drop off at all offensively.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
No, And I think it's a phenomenal offense. But and
this could I mean it's sort of a good thing
bad thing situation. I think they're passing games phenomenal, and frankly,
I don't even think they're protection is all that good.
And without Brown, I don't think they're going to run
the ball well or at all. I think their offensive
(10:44):
line has been really mitigated by Burrow's unbelievable ability to
move and navigate the pocket. He's gotten so much better
at that, and.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
It's a fluid right, Matt Like, It's just it's the
right step every time. He's not the most athletic person,
but it just.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Right absolutely feels it and just moves subtly. And you know,
I mean, he's more athletic than Dan Marino or Tom
Brady or Peyton Manning. But those guys were subtle movers
within the pocket, and he has that plus because he
can still scramble, throw on the move, make a play
with his feet. He's definitely improved in that area from
(11:21):
a season ago. But his offensive line really hasn't done
in much favors either. I mean, it's really been a
three man show and sprinkle in a little Gescki and
those guys, you know, do you see it? It's a
good three man show.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
He's not. He might be the most accurate quarterback in
the NFL, of your mind. Completion percentage doesn't bear that out.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
But do you see a quartercasher of the football though maybe.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Okay, that's exactly where I was going with. Yeah, have
you seen a quarterback recently with more wow kind of passes.
Because the one touchdown to T. Higgins against Denver in
the third down pass he had to T Higgins where
he stepped up in the pocket and just zipped one
in between two defenders. I mean, those those are like
when Rogers was in his prime, those type of throws
that would just have my jaw drop going wow. No
(12:03):
one else can do that, not even Mahomes sometimes can
do that.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
And I think he's even gotten better at that. I mean,
like this is a bigger picture conversation, but you know,
these quarterbacks, they don't their quarterback coach, their offensive coordinator
generally is not working on fundamentals and things, you know.
I mean, that's usually a quarterback guru behind the scenes.
And I'm sure this past offseason he drastically worked on
(12:29):
his foot quickness, ability to throw while on the move,
a little bit of his even his arm strength seems
a little bit better than when he came in the league.
And I've always considered him as this kind of that
iceman from top Gun just you know, maybe it's not
as flashy as mav but it's just time and time again,
you know, consistent. But now he's got a little Maverick
(12:49):
to him too, you know.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Well, this is now.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
He's unbelievable. I mean, is great.
Speaker 1 (12:55):
Eight straight games with two hundred and fifty plus yards
and three or more touchdown passes. He's the fourth quarterback
in NFL history with ten such games. He's the first
one to do it in eight straight games. And he
has forty four total touchdowns against just eight turnovers this season.
And the numbers are fantastic because he's such an elite quarterback, Matt,
but he might have the best weaponry in football too.
(13:16):
He might have the best one to two puncher at least,
it's arguable in all of football. And Jamar Chase is
having a triple crown type of season. We'll get to
him in a second. T Higgins has come on so
strong lately. He's catching, He's had a touchdown in every
single one of their wins over the winning streak, and
he just went off against Denver on Saturday, catching three
all three of Joe Burrow's touchdown passes. Last time around,
(13:37):
Joey Porter Junior took on T Higgins as his one
on one matchup. According to coach Tomin, they're optimistic that
Joey will be out there Saturday against the Angles, do
you kind of deploy the same strategy where Minka shades
to Chase and you double Chase and you go one
on one with Higgins and Porter.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Maybe, however, go that great in the.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
First time around? Remember that was like eight holding penalties
on Porter.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
Yeah, that's right, it wasn't awesome. And is he compromised?
I mean, what kind of shape is he in? Is
he gutting it out? Or is he perfectly fine? I
don't know. This is kind of a bigger picture conversation
in terms of the Steelers secondary, but it worries me
a lot, to be honest with you. I mean, Sutton
has been a real problem Beanie Bishop frankly is what
(14:20):
he is and has a very low ceiling. And Dale
and I on the Drive have been lately just throwing
out the idea of and maybe this isn't the best
game to employ it, but maybe Minka is your slot
from now on and eliminate all those problems and case's
you're deep middle And I would even throw out there again,
this might not be the time to do it, It
might be too late, but I wouldn't mind seeing more
(14:42):
of Trice over Jackson, who I just don't think is
a very good man coverage player. But it's not exactly
experiment for next year type of you know, type of
the part of the year. So I don't know, maybe
it's just left right it. But then they're gonna, you know,
find their matchups, because if you watch that Bengals Broncos game, Yes,
(15:04):
they threw it certain some who I think is the
best quarter league Joe. He's not as good as Certain
yet or probably ever will be. That he's awesome, And
yeah they threw at him some because he often was
on Chase. But really all Burrow did was just attack
every corner not named Certain and just rip them apart.
And I don't know how the Steelers answered that.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Yeah, I don't know either. And even if you do
deploy the same kind of coverage as the first time
around against you know, portergoing against Higgins and then you
double Chase, Chase is still going to have a big
game being doubled. It's just the type of receiver he is.
He's going for the triple crown most receptions, most receiving yards,
and most receiving touchdowns in the league. I mean, have
you ever seen a quarterback wide receiver do this and
(15:45):
the team is just not anywhere near what they should
be record wise.
Speaker 2 (15:49):
Agreat Yeah, I mean I think he and Justin Jefferson
are the top two in the league right now.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Think about how Burrow had them both at LSU.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
How scary that he's unbelieva right, and I'd be shocked.
I just looked at it this morning. If Chase doesn't
win the Triple Crown, I mean, the only one that
could catch him is Saint Brown happens to have like
eight more receptions than him, and we you know, the
final week the season and that's not going to happen.
So he's gonna win the Triple Crown. And you're right,
I mean in a way, it's unfortunate because this is
(16:19):
as good of threesome. You know, you mentioned it before.
I think the Eagles are the only pairing of receivers
that are in the same realm as these two.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
Up there too, because Addison's come on pretty strong this year. Yeah,
just not quite in that class yet.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
I mean, if you mixed it in Hockinson, yes, without that, no,
you know, I think Addison's well behind Higgins because where
Ilse going with this is I think Higgins is having
clearly his best season as a pro, and he's always
been good and that maybe it's contract year whatever, I
don't care what it is. He's been phenomenal when on
the field, where before he was always just kind of great.
(16:58):
Now he's phenomenal. So there isn't a great answer. You're
happy that there's only really two, but like I mentioned Geski, Yeah,
so twelve targets last week, yeah, yeah, And really during
the Taylor Burrow Europe the Bengals have been number one
(17:19):
or number two in the league in their usage of
eleven personnel three receivers. Well, we know Tyler Boyd left
and they drafted Burton, they have Joshavas, but they've really
made Gaseki that third guy, you know, so he's been
their big slot. He isn't a tight end at all,
but they're making him a wide receiver. It just doesn't
show up as eleven personnel, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Yeah, And I was just going to bring that up
about Kasiki. It seems like he's really immersed as that
third option for Joe Burrow in this offense. And the
last thing I wanted to bring up before we get
into our key matchups here is is Burrow was sacked
seven times against the Broncos on Saturday, Matt But when
he's blitzed, he still averaged just two point two three
second average time to throw, and his numbers this year
(18:04):
against the Blitz when he doesn't have that much time
to throw are just insane. He torches blitz. You don't
want to list show Burrow. But the seven sacks, is
that just Joe holding onto the ball for too long,
trying to make a play happen, and he just doesn't
give a crap if he gets sacked.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Maybe because I mean that's always been a Burrow. I
think that's in his DNA, you know, like a lot
of early remember early in his career, he's getting the
crap beat out of him. And he's had so many
injuries and no one ever, ever ever questioned his toughness.
But like every training camp he had, like a appendectomy
or is coming off a knee or whatever I mean,
and Cincinnati he's got to do a better job protecting him,
(18:41):
and they did invest in some linemen. But I think
a lot of it is just he's so tough that
if it means I'm going to hold this ball for
point five seconds longer to complete it and I take
one in the chin. He's taking that option every time,
you know, so yes and no, I think their line
is highly questionable. And Mems left the game, and I
(19:02):
doubt he plays in this one. The dude to replaced
him as someone's i'd never heard of. The interior ro
line needs work. And Orlando Brown's a little overrated, and Burrow,
I mean you kind of touched on it. What he's
doing under two point five seconds insane, is insane. And oh,
by the way, the Steelers defense is like worse than
(19:23):
the league against ball coming out quick. You know, see
Pat Mahomes and that's what everyone's doomed. And you know,
nullify the Steeler pass rush. So if the Steelers lose
this game, I bet it's death by a thousand paper cuts.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
You know you hear those numbers for you. You laid
them out in your stat pack. He leads all quarterbacks
and completions two hundred and forty eight in yards undred
and thirty four on passes under two and a half
seconds this season, and he's also tied with Baker Mayfield
and touchdowns on such passes they each have twenty. And
then to your point, on the Steelers. They have allowed
the most yards one eight hundred and ten and have
the worst EPA expected points added on passes under two
(19:58):
and a half seconds this season. I think the game
plan is pretty clear for the Bengals against that Steelers
defense exactly.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
And what worries me, and this goes back to kind
of what we were talking about with Jackson and Trice,
is I don't the best way to combat that, you know,
like you watch the KC game, they just nickeled and
dimed you to death and utter efficiency and phenomenal foot
you know, quarterback play. You'd love to have two Joey
porters that could come up and press and at least
(20:26):
disrupt them at the line of scrimmage. And I only
see one press man corner on this team, and it
sounds like he's gonna play luckily. But you know, you
just can't trust the secondary to play man time and
time again against these guys. So you almost have to
just kind of grin and Barrett while he just gets
the ball out and nickels and dimes.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
You have to score a lot of points. That that's
how you have to be.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
That's score yeh, tackle the catch. I mean, like Jamar
Chase is.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
I'm glad we brought such a for the Steelers now too,
So yeah, that can't continue. In this game will be
huge key matchups. You've got Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown
versus Steelers outside linebacker Alex high Smith. You're right about Brown,
he is overratedhis Smith shoul kick his ass in this game.
He really should. This is another one of those games
where the tackles should get their asses kicked by Watton
(21:16):
high Smith And hopefully it doesn't continue the trend where
that's the case going into the game and they have
a relatively quiet game play out on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Yeah, and I didn't think Brown was great the first
time around. If you watch Hard Knocks, you know, coach
Tomlin's talking about, well what high Smith did to him,
you know, and the right and oh, by the way,
Miles garretton Division two. You know, there's other good pass rushers.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
But you know, but yeah, Ravens always lead the league
in sacks.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Yeah, right, right, so it's kind of important. But yeah,
I think they're overpaying the left tackle and he's the
best of the lineman and I don't think he's phenomenal
now and.
Speaker 1 (21:52):
Then you have the other tackle defensive end matchup. On
the other side of things, Dan Moore against Bengals d
n Trey Hendrickson. I mean, this is the only impact
player on the defensive side of the ball man.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
I know, we know anywhere else efect.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
But I know we're talking about they've been bringing more
splash to the table, but Hendrickson's this. He might be
the sack king at the end of the year. I mean,
he's the only legitimately good player on that defense. And
it's it's unbelievable to say that about an NFL defense
on a team that is eight and eight.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
So I've been getting this and I said it going
in the last game. You know that a huge Like okay,
I mentioned the Eagles. The Eagles are paying a quarterback
and two wide receivers, you know, and people are like, well,
they can't afford Higgins, Like, well, some teams can if
you don't need seven new starters on defense and three
new offensive linemen. You know, Like, that's really where I
(22:39):
think their offseasons at where they're gonna be in the
market for like seven new defensive starters.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Steelers and Bengals Saturday at eight o'clock flex into that
Saturday primetime spot. The AFC North is playing on Saturday.
You got the Ravens and the Browns at four point
thirty and then eight o'clock for the Bengals and the Steelers.
So the Steelers will know if they're playing for the
AFC North or not. Come kickoff of that game and
then have the can inclusion of Steelers Bengals, that playoff
picture and the seating for the Steelers will become all
the more clear Formatt Williamson, I'm Tom Opperman, Thanks as
(23:07):
always for giving us a listen, and we'll be back
again next week previewing the Wildcard round matchup between either
the Texans, Ravens, or the Chargers. Those are your three
options if you're the Pittsburgh Steelers. For Matt, I'm Tom,
Thanks as always for listening to the Advanced Scout
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