Bonus Episode: Quagmire in the Middle East

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It was January 16, 1991. Your humble host was an undergraduate in college, and like others in the dorms, watching events unfold live on TV. US media had begun broadcasting the start of the air campaign to “free Kuwait” from the clutches of the evil Saddam Hussein. Looking back on these events 3 decades later, I have to admit, it made for compelling, if disgusting, television. Why do I say disgusting? People were dying in front of our very eyes, and we were treating it like it was just some video game. But, at the age of 20, I was enthralled by all of this. And, embarrassingly enough now, I was for it.

But how did the US get to that point? If you learn nothing else from this episode, you should come to realize that American foreign policy, at least when it comes to the Middle east over the last few decades, was characterized by incoherence and confusion. And believe it or not, this bouncing back and forth started with, of all presidents Ronald Reagan. You might find that hard to believe, as even his detractors tend to see him as consistent. Since Reagan, the US has been neither consistent nor has it been guided, when it comes to Iraq and the surrounding area, by shortsighted opportunism. However, he isn’t the only guilty president. Carter, as we shall see, also bears some responsibility for the mess that is American policy in the Middle East.

Before we go forward, let’s discuss what was the purpose of all of this. Guided by opportunism, the purpose of our policy in the Middle East was twofold. First, it was to exercise dominion over the core of the Islamic World. But there was more. It was also about cheap oil and gas. In 1970, the year I was born, it was $.36 (or about $1.70 in 2015 dollars). By 1980 it was $1.18 or 2.95 in 2015 dollars. By today’s standard that doesn’t seem too awful, but in 1980, when you are a somewhat unpopular president, and you are facing reelection? That would not do. In fact, by 1984, in real dollars, the price of gas had decreased from $2.95/gal (in 2015 dollars) to $2.23/gallon. Plus, unemployment in the US, as well as inflation had declined. Inflation was 12.5% in 1980, but by 1983 it was down to less than 4%. Needless to say, the last thing Carter wanted in 1980 was increasing fuel costs.

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