April 10, 2025 • 22 mins
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Diving deep into the often misunderstood real estate landscape, Pete Heim and Brad Weisman separate fact from fiction about our current housing market. This eye-opening conversation tackles the persistent confusion between today's inventory crisis and the 2008 financial meltdown, providing clarity with hard data rather than social media panic.
Discover why the mid-Atlantic region continues to outperform the rest of the country with a 0.8% value increase while western markets decline. The hosts unpack fascinating statistics about pricing strategy, revealing that homes sell for 100% of asking price in the first four weeks, but only 94% after 17+ weeks on market – making a compelling case for accurate pricing from day one.
Perhaps most compelling is their breakdown of how housing has performed through six past recessions, with values increasing in four of them, decisively debunking the myth that economic downturns automatically mean falling home prices. The episode also explores encouraging trends in the Home Demand Index (rising from 65 to 71) and interest rates declining faster than forecasted.
For baby boomers sitting on substantial equity and millennials eager to enter the market, this episode provides practical insights on timing and strategy. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to understand market dynamics, this data-driven conversation cuts through the noise with expert analysis and actionable information.
Ready to make smarter real estate decisions? Listen now to gain the knowledge advantage in today's complex housing environment.
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Welcome to The Brad Weisman Show, where we dive into the world of real estate, real life, and everything in between with your host, Brad Weisman! 🎙️ Join us for candid conversations, laughter, and a fresh take on the real world. Get ready to explore the ups and downs of life with a side of humor. From property to personality, we've got it all covered. Tune in, laugh along, and let's get real! 🏡🌟 #TheBradWeismanShow #RealEstateRealLife
Credits - The music for my podcast was written and performed by Jeff Miller.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
from real estate affects the market as a whole,
which then sometimes will affectthe right.
You know the real life we alllearn in different ways.
If you think about it, waynedyer might not attract everybody
and everything in betweenmission was really to help
people just to reach their fullpotential the brad weisman and
now your host, Brad Wiseman.
(00:26):
All right, we're back Thursday 7pm, like we always are.
Yeah, we are back, and we'regoing to talk about real estate
today, because it is the weekthat Pete Heim is in the studio
with us.
Pete, how are you doing, goodbrother, how are you doing, man,
I'm doing great Good Doinggreat.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
I'm still hearing voices in my you're still.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
You're still hearing voices from the intro.
I'm not used to it yet I'll getused to it.
Yeah, that's why you're old.
Yeah, I have a little skin.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, when I hear that I go oh my god, this is,
this is your age, when they,when you hear voices in your
head.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
It's starting to get to the end.
Yeah, it's gonna be at the end.
We'll take you out into a fieldlike a horse, like like a
broken leg on a horse.
Yeah, exactly, all right, it'sall right it's okay, we'll find
somebody else to fill your shoes.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I can think of a better place to die like?
Right here, in a field, right,right here.
That would be, that would bedramatic, I'll tell you what
hugo would help the ratings?
Speaker 1 (01:18):
that's right, I think it would go viral.
I think it would go viral.
So yeah, so real estate isstill going.
We're still here, yeah, um,there's.
There's not a whole lotdifferent than there was last
month.
We're just kind of chuggingalong.
It's kind of a we are yeah it'skind of interesting you know, I
think our inventory is stillextremely low, right, but this
(01:40):
is um also in this area, we're,we're, we're definitely lower
than anybody else.
We are.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Oh yeah, talk around, I mean even surrounding
counties and stuff.
Yeah, some of them are a littlehigher now than us, we don't
have the new construction.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
I mean, that's just plain and simple, that's it.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
My mother-in-law sent me an article.
I should have probably read thewhole article.
I'm a headline reader.
Yeah, I.
I think it was only 1.3 millionunits short as a nation.
Is that does that sound right?
Speaker 1 (02:05):
That sounds about right, or was it?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
only 1.3 million, and then the normal was 4 million
or something.
It's more than 1.3 million,it's more than that.
I think that was what it wasonly 1.3 built.
We should have 4.4 as a nation.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I think that's what it was.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
That's probably what it was.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
And so that's weighted towards our area.
Because if you look at actuallywe'll just go into this right
away is, um, if you look at theareas that are doing well, uh,
as far as appreciation even atthis is, as of december 24,
december of 24, they're showinghere that the mid-atlantic is
one of the best performers ofall the areas, the regions in
the United States.
(02:46):
That's us, exactly, basically,what it's saying is what it is.
If you look at this littlechart here, it just kind of
shows that South Atlantic is0.3%.
Mid-atlantic, which would be us, is up 0.8%.
New England states are up 0.5%.
These values are up.
East, south, central.
New England states are up 0.5%.
These are values are up East,south, central, east north
central.
So all the east side is up,that's us.
(03:10):
And then you look at west,north, central, west south
they're down, they're down.
Yeah, look at mountain.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Mountain.
Wow, 1.4% increase.
Now give me that region.
Where's mountain?
Is it Appalachian, I wouldthink?
Speaker 1 (03:20):
it's like Colorado Utah you know that area?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
I would think so Okay , Got it.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, pacific was uh cause marijuana is legal.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That's probably why.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, everything's going higher.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Even the people you stole my joke.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Yeah, I was like what are you going to say?
Yeah, oh man.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yeah, you're not going to get good jokes here.
They're going to get good jokeshere.
They're going to always be dadjokes, always dad jokes.
Yes.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
So that's what's going on.
So it just shows you that thereason that the prices are still
going up on the East Coast orin our region here is because
lack of inventory.
That's it.
Yeah, we just don't have theinventory, no, which is kind of
annoying.
Right, it is annoying.
(04:10):
I did do a demand index thingwhich we can talk about when
we're through this pricing stuff.
But, yeah, it's really good tosee that our region's really
attractive and people arewanting it.
But within our local area herewe're also seeing even though
there's only 320 homes in themarket right now we're also
seeing price reductions.
We are, and that is really wild, but they're selling that they
are.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
I have stats on that today.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Thank you, thank you very much for even bringing that
up.
Well then, go ahead.
I kind of brought it up thiswasn't actually even folks.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
I just want you to know we did not talk about this
ahead of time.
No, we did not.
This is something that we justit's like on our minds, yep,
always All the time that Brad'sa broker.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
We're both brokers now.
That's right.
I did pass my brokers yesterday30 years, but you're good.
Hugo, you want to talk about aslow learner, jesus Mighty.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
So what are you able to do now?
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Nothing, nothing.
Actually, I can give moreadvice, I guess, as an associate
broker.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
You can own your own company, I can own my own
company.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
It doesn't do much.
No, it doesn't do too much.
I can sign escrow checks.
You can.
Yes, I can sign an escrow check, oh good.
Which is good, which doesn'treally mean much to you.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
He's like so what Well, we were joking that most
brokers are broker than normal.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Yeah, that's what it is.
That's exactly it.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
There's a lot of other things that you must
attend to.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
It was more of a personal thing of just doing it
Right sure.
Because I've had so many timeswhere people are like you don't
have your brokers, you don'thave your brokers.
You've been doing this for 30years.
You don't have your brokers.
Yet I'm like you know what?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I don't want to hear that anymore.
So you know how you.
You didn't have a dad makingyou do it.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
No, I did not, like I did back in my early career.
Yeah, no, not at all.
So what numbers you got there?
Speaker 2 (05:46):
So the price cuts we're talking about price cuts
coming back to normal again.
Yeah, and this is just theFebruaries.
This is just to give you abrief snapshot February of 2017,
there were 268,000.
This is national, by the way.
268,584 price cuts when we werelisting, they dropped the price
(06:08):
a little bit 19,.
It was 285, that was thehighest 285,000 and change.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
In 2022, 64,958.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Is that a crazy?
That is crazy and that'snationwide, nationwide.
So this February, this Februarywe're at 26bruary 262, 262, 330
, which is getting back up tothat normal pre-covid
unreasonable sellers.
It is unreasonable sell so thatthe point is you can still
overprice your home absolutelyand the dangers of that are it
could backfire.
buyers might not even bother.
(06:40):
Yep right, they could sitlonger on the market, which
we're going to talk about in aminute, might wind up getting
less for the house.
Absolutely Okay, those are thethings.
So the median percentage ofasking price to sold price
nationally, the first one, two,three, four weeks of a listing,
you're still getting a hundredpercent.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Okay, so that means it's priced right.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
It's priced right.
Yeah, it's priced right, butthere could be some people
getting 110%, so what?
Speaker 1 (07:06):
you're saying is so we can break this down a little
bit is what you're saying isthat you're looking at list
price Yep and you're saying thatthe ones that are 100% of list
price, that means they'regetting full price.
Full price within the firstfour weeks.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yep.
So first week, second, third,all the first four weeks.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So after 30 days, what happens?
Speaker 2 (07:26):
So five to eight weeks it drops to 98.
Isn't that something?
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Pretty interesting right.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
We always used to say your biggest action is in the
first three.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
To four weeks, dude.
It's been like that since wegot in the business, ever since
the Earth's core.
Yes, yes.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Yeah.
And then nine to 16 weeks, it96 percent interesting and then
17 plus, it's 94 percent.
There's your case where you'regonna get less.
Yeah, you know absolutely wellwhat happens.
This is a median number, by theway.
Yeah, it's a median percentage.
You remember, I don't likemedian, neither do I, but, but
that's what it is.
(07:57):
You know, you take the high andthe low away and you got the
guy in the middle.
Yep, that's like that wholedime example we do.
But you know, but it's, butthat's what the stat we got.
So it's pretty encouraging.
And I looked up locally becausethat was national and, god
bless Michelle, I walked outwithout picking it up and she
took a quick snap for me.
I went back a year, okay, okay,and in March of 24, list
(08:21):
meeting was $259,900.
Sold meeting was $255,000.
Okay, okay, and then it goes,it's, and then it goes $280 to
$254 in February.
That's why that February numberwas off.
Right, because that's a bigprice reduction month.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Yeah, it just naturally it's just in that way
Because of the winter.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yep, but here's the thing In March of this year, so
far, list is 275.
Sold is 275.
Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, $259,950.
Last month, $260.
Yeah, $50 more, yeah, okay, andthen the month before that,
$279,950, $280.
(09:02):
Yeah, we're hovering around100% right now yeah, right.
Yeah.
So that basically means if youprice your property Correctly,
properly, using an agent whoknows what they're doing and not
Zillow I'm going to say itagain you will get 100% of what
you're asking, or more or more,within the first four weeks of
the listing.
But you've got to do itproperly up front.
(09:22):
You've got to do it up front.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yeah, I mean and it's not rocket science Just go by
whatever the values have beenthat are sold.
Yeah, you know, just hangaround that price and you should
be fine, that's it, you know.
Or even if you go a littlelower, sometimes you're even
better off, because then you getmultiple offers, you know.
So we're not having anyproblems with that.
But what's happening is, though, people are overpricing and and
(09:44):
you know, what I found too.
another thing that that I'vereally noticed showing houses to
buyers right now and losingoffers and those kinds of things
the quality of the homes arejust not as they're wanting.
That's the thing too.
It's not that there's so muchthat they're wanting, not so
much that they're overpricingthe property.
They're pricing them right, buttheir condition is under where
(10:08):
it needs to be for that price.
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
So that's one of the things that I'm finding too,
because some of these houses arejust a condition and you sit
there and you go.
Well, how are these peopleshowing this home like this?
Yeah, and then it's amazing Isyou?
Within a week, it's off themarket.
Then it ticks you off.
What are you smiling at,Laughing over there?
No, it wasn't.
Look, there was dog poop in thehouse or anything.
But the houses are just notthat great.
(10:33):
I mean, they need painting andthey need all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Well, price, condition, location, all three
have to match right, yep, and sothat price and condition don't
seem to be meaning much rightnow.
And you're right, yeah, itmight take a little longer, yep,
but you're going to get it.
You're going to get it.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
And you might even get it really close to full
which is yeah, and I think youwill absolutely, absolutely,
yeah.
So you know, I'm hearing a lotagain about this and we've we've
beat this to death, I think,over the past year.
I know hugo is going to be like, oh, they're bringing that up
again, um, but no, I am seeingthis again on the on on social
media of people just going intothis panic mode.
Oh of the, the sky is fallingthat.
(11:14):
Oh my gosh, with the rateswhere they've been, this country
is going to have it worse than2008.
We're going to see foreclosuresall over the place.
You just wait and see andthey're scaring people from
buying or selling, more so thananything, and they just don't.
They're just not getting it.
It is not.
We are not in that situationnow and I even go back and I end
(11:35):
up arguing, not arguing.
Since I argue, I can respondwith facts and figures and an
opinion of what I think it'sgoing to be, and I just think
people just feel they're gettingthis bad information.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
They're confusing the financial crisis that we went
through in 08, which wasattached to real estate, to an
inventory crisis that we haveright now, and they are
completely two different crises,yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Well, the problem before was it was attached to
mortgages.
That's right.
Financing.
It was attached to financing.
It was attached to real estate.
Yeah, to real estate 100% 100%.
Yep.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Yep, it was that Loan them 103, 3% of the value.
It started in 1998.
And I forget my dad.
My dad who's been an expert,yep.
It passed in Congress in 98.
My dad was just starting toretire and he says give it 10
years, it's going to crash.
And it did.
It did 2008.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And he called it.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
And it crashed in 10 years later.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Maybe we should have him in here for this podcast.
No, you probably should.
Hey, he sounds like he knows ahell of a lot more than you do,
jesus.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
You don't know where I get my information from.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
From your dad.
Is that all your dad's?
Speaker 2 (12:36):
information.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
And then Chris gets it from me.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Well, I get mine from the eight ball, so it can't be
any better.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
It's a red one too.
It's a red one, That'd be sharp.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Those are the ones that are right.
That's right, those are theright ones.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Oh my God.
But yeah, so interestinglyenough, this is what we want to.
I want to bring this up again.
Yeah, is that through the lastsix recessions?
Okay, people also confusedrecession with depreciation of
home value.
That's right.
Okay, that is not always thecase.
In fact, out of the last sixrecessions, only two of them one
(13:12):
was 2008.
That was an anomaly.
Saw a lowering of values ofhomes.
So recession 1980, prices ofhouses went up 6.1% 1981, 3.5%
1991, another recession onlywent down 1.9% 2001,.
(13:33):
Small recession went up 6.6%values.
Now, this is the one that isthe anomaly here 2008, recession
, whatever.
We lost almost 20% in value.
Oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
It took like three years to get out of it.
And then 2020, we had a smallrecession again because of COVID
and values went up 6% that year.
So just because if we would,you know if we would go into
recession, that does notautomatically mean we're going
to lose a value, and even if wedo lose one or 2%, I think it's
okay.
(14:05):
We've gained how much?
Right, exactly, yeah, it'samazing.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
That's a good point.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
Yeah, I just like to show, because I think what
happens is people hear recession, recession, recession, and and
it doesn't always mean thatthat's going to be a bad thing I
mean we've been in recessionsand only people don't even know
it.
Right, you know?
It's kind of like once you knowit, you're already through it.
Yeah, that's it.
What is it?
Two quarters of negative GDP,gdp, yeah, yeah, which really?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
doesn't mean a lot.
It doesn't mean much.
It doesn't mean much.
It really hasn't affected us.
No, no, it really hasn't Inreal estate.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
it doesn't really affect us.
It's not like we're a shortpoint.
We created, though, in 2008, wecreated the recession.
Oh yeah, we did yes we did.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
That's what's so funny about that.
Congress did Yep.
We created that Yep was goingto buy a house yeah, I remember.
I remember even the speeches.
Oh yeah, we're going to makesure everyone's going to own a
house.
That's not the way to do it.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
You can't do it.
You gotta be prepared.
Yeah, you gotta qualify, yeah.
Yeah, it should be merit-basedlike everything else.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Remember those yeah, those, uh.
Hey, we'll give you a loan.
Don't worry about giving me anyinformation.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
You know, I totally remember that.
Oh my gosh what, yeah it, yeah,it's crazy, it's crazy.
So what else you got?
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Hey, well, I did a home demand index evaluation of
our region.
Unfortunately, a trend doesn't.
I keep calling it a trend.
I know what you meant, right,right, yeah, doesn't do Burke
County on this type of they doregion, they do region on this
type of.
And home demand is importantbecause I think as we come into
the season it's going up, andsure enough, even though right
(15:41):
now in the Philly region, whichwe are, it's 71.
Now the higher it goes towards100, the better, the more demand
there is.
Right, exactly.
So.
71 is considered slow.
However, last month it was 65.
So it's better.
We're at 71.
It's good, it's increasing.
The prior year this time was 77.
Okay, okay, I attribute that towhat we just spoke about.
The interest rate lock freezeyeah, it's still taking effect
(16:03):
on us in the low inventory.
Yeah, but the category singlefamily, zero to 350, it's up,
it's up.
It's at 69.
Okay, up to 65 from last yearthis time A 350 to 765, right,
it's at 58, which is up from 55.
Good, 765 plus is up From 41 to51.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
That demand is up.
Up there's a higher.
That's amazing.
That statistic is the highest.
So the higher price range is up.
The demand is up, higher theluxury market is higher in this
region.
Well, we are in the Phillyregion now.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
It's the Philly region.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
So 700 is not a lot.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
It's not Condos, actually, no, I lied, condos is
95.
Wow, now remember if you getinto the hundreds.
You're, yep, it's affordable.
Affordable, yeah, but this isthe $0 to $412,000 condo market
Right Is up 95 from 85.
And the 412 plus condo marketis 119 up from 99.
(17:00):
Wow.
So, people are moving.
Wow, look at that.
They're looking at condos, yeah.
Well, and that's one of thethings For a lot of different
reasons, right?
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Hey, you know, if you want to buy in this market and
you're having a hard time andyou keep losing offers at $250
or $300, consider lowering yourstandards to a $250 home and
offer a little bit more and be astronger buyer in a lower price
range.
Exactly, if you're tapped outat $300, you're not going to
look as good to the seller.
(17:29):
But if you're at 250, if youstart looking at 250 and you're
approved to 300 and you have alittle you have a little bit
more money there and things likethat you're going to look
better to the seller.
So you might, and here's thething you're getting into the
market.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Then start there, yeah, and then four years.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
So now go buy the house that has everything you
want.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah, and rent it maybe, or sell it Exactly
Townhouse twins, all semis andtownhouses, all prices up from
78 to 84.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Yeah, so the demand is definitely going up.
All of these are up.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
by the way, they're all.
All of them are up.
That's good, okay.
So we're coming into a seasonaltrend, I think, and the
demand's up.
So people are getting used tothe six point.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Well, that goes right into mine.
Whatever you got, rates aredeclining faster than expected.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, and we didn't rehearse this folks.
No, we didn't.
We didn't.
I swear to God, we didn't.
We probably should the showwould be a hell of a lot better
if we did.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
We always talk about how.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I'm always late and all that.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Yeah, maybe Besides my mom.
Yeah, right, but no, what's?
The interest rate Rates aredeclining faster than they
expected.
So basically, what it says hereis we're at like 6.53.
I'm looking oh, okay, no, I'msorry.
So right now it's at 6.7.
Okay, they're saying quarterone forecast for 2025, which is
now 6.97.
Quarter one forecast for 2025,which is now 6.97.
(18:51):
The forecast for quarter two is6.87, 6.68 for quarter three
and 6.53 for quarter four.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
6.63 right now yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
So the rates are actually dropping faster than
what they thought.
And that also has to be, Ithink, because uh inflation is
is getting in check.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
It is yeah inflation is getting in check to do with.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Um, and you know, I think things are the banks are
probably not lending as muchmoney as they'd like to.
Exactly, they got to lend money, right?
Yep, they don't let money, theydon't make money.
Yeah, that it's got to besomething going on, yep.
So that was interesting too tosee that.
And and really, you know, if weget to low sixes, people should
be jumping on that.
I think they will.
They should be jumping on that,and that's where I think
(19:32):
sellers hopefully will start toput a sign in the yard and move
and do what they need to do.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
There's a lot of people that I'm sure you are too
consulting about selling thebig house.
Pull the equity, get thedownsized house.
Absolutely, they're just goingto be so much better positioned
to take that lower mortgage at ahigher rate.
Absolutely Probably not changetheir payment at all, maybe even
lower.
Yeah, that's, it's really allabout the payment.
Yeah, really, that's what it'sabout.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
And even if you have to, like I said before, even if
you do have to pay 200 bucks amonth more, but if you're living
where the conditions that youmaybe need minutes, first floor,
all first floor living.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
If you have to pay $200 more for that, then you got
to pay $200 more.
I mean, that's that's not muchyou can do about that, that's
right.
So, yeah, there was somenumbers too about how the the um
was.
The millennials and and andbaby boomers Like of them, own
their homes without any mortgageRight, Free and clear.
(20:31):
Yeah, so it'll be interesting.
So what's going to happen isyou're going to have the
millennials buying the babyboomers homes at some point, but
they got to move, Yep, so we'rejust going to have to tell baby
boomers you need to just put asign in front of your front yard
.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Let's just go.
This is enough of this crap.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Okay, we're done with it.
You're getting older.
Get your house up for sale.
Is that a problem to talk likethat?
Speaker 2 (20:51):
No, I don't think so no, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Come on, I don't think so.
Of course my dad will be likethat was offensive, that was
offensive.
I love it, oh my goodness.
So, yeah, so anything else you?
Have no, no.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
You're good.
No, I'm good.
Yes, all right, that soundsgood.
We were good today, right?
I just want to saycongratulations for your broker.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Oh, thank you, bud.
I appreciate that.
I appreciate that.
Yeah, you know it took a while,but I finally did it.
Welcome to the club, yeah it'sawesome, it's a good club.
I don't feel any different.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
We reduced.
Yeah, it's great, we'll giveyou a sticker.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
Just what I need a sticker, yeah okay, all right,
that's it for this month forPete.
He's out of here and no, butthanks for checking in again.
Thursdays at 7 pm Once a month.
We do, pete, just to talk aboutsome real estate.
Check out the show everyThursday.
We've got some great guestscoming up.
Lots of good people, peoplewriting books, people that are
motivational speakers, all thatkind of stuff.
Check it out.
(21:48):
All right, that's about it.
We'll see you next Thursday, 7pm.
from real estate affects the market as a whole,
which then sometimes will affectthe right.
You know the real life we alllearn in different ways.
If you think about it, waynedyer might not attract everybody
and everything in betweenmission was really to help
people just to reach their fullpotential the brad weisman and
now your host, Brad Wiseman.
(00:26):
All right, we're back Thursday 7pm, like we always are.
Yeah, we are back, and we'regoing to talk about real estate
today, because it is the weekthat Pete Heim is in the studio
with us.
Pete, how are you doing, goodbrother, how are you doing, man,
I'm doing great Good Doinggreat.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
I'm still hearing voices in my you're still.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
You're still hearing voices from the intro.
I'm not used to it yet I'll getused to it.
Yeah, that's why you're old.
Yeah, I have a little skin.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, when I hear that I go oh my god, this is,
this is your age, when they,when you hear voices in your
head.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
It's starting to get to the end.
Yeah, it's gonna be at the end.
We'll take you out into a fieldlike a horse, like like a
broken leg on a horse.
Yeah, exactly, all right, it'sall right it's okay, we'll find
somebody else to fill your shoes.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
I can think of a better place to die like?
Right here, in a field, right,right here.
That would be, that would bedramatic, I'll tell you what
hugo would help the ratings?
Speaker 1 (01:18):
that's right, I think it would go viral.
I think it would go viral.
So yeah, so real estate isstill going.
We're still here, yeah, um,there's.
There's not a whole lotdifferent than there was last
month.
We're just kind of chuggingalong.
It's kind of a we are yeah it'skind of interesting you know, I
think our inventory is stillextremely low, right, but this
(01:40):
is um also in this area, we're,we're, we're definitely lower
than anybody else.
We are.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Oh yeah, talk around, I mean even surrounding
counties and stuff.
Yeah, some of them are a littlehigher now than us, we don't
have the new construction.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
I mean, that's just plain and simple, that's it.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
My mother-in-law sent me an article.
I should have probably read thewhole article.
I'm a headline reader.
Yeah, I.
I think it was only 1.3 millionunits short as a nation.
Is that does that sound right?
Speaker 1 (02:05):
That sounds about right, or was it?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
only 1.3 million, and then the normal was 4 million
or something.
It's more than 1.3 million,it's more than that.
I think that was what it wasonly 1.3 built.
We should have 4.4 as a nation.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
I think that's what it was.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
That's probably what it was.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
And so that's weighted towards our area.
Because if you look at actuallywe'll just go into this right
away is, um, if you look at theareas that are doing well, uh,
as far as appreciation even atthis is, as of december 24,
december of 24, they're showinghere that the mid-atlantic is
one of the best performers ofall the areas, the regions in
the United States.
(02:46):
That's us, exactly, basically,what it's saying is what it is.
If you look at this littlechart here, it just kind of
shows that South Atlantic is0.3%.
Mid-atlantic, which would be us, is up 0.8%.
New England states are up 0.5%.
These values are up.
East, south, central.
New England states are up 0.5%.
These are values are up East,south, central, east north
central.
So all the east side is up,that's us.
(03:10):
And then you look at west,north, central, west south
they're down, they're down.
Yeah, look at mountain.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Mountain.
Wow, 1.4% increase.
Now give me that region.
Where's mountain?
Is it Appalachian, I wouldthink?
Speaker 1 (03:20):
it's like Colorado Utah you know that area?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
I would think so Okay , Got it.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Yeah, pacific was uh cause marijuana is legal.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
That's probably why.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, everything's going higher.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Even the people you stole my joke.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Yeah, I was like what are you going to say?
Yeah, oh man.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Yeah, you're not going to get good jokes here.
They're going to get good jokeshere.
They're going to always be dadjokes, always dad jokes.
Yes.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
So that's what's going on.
So it just shows you that thereason that the prices are still
going up on the East Coast orin our region here is because
lack of inventory.
That's it.
Yeah, we just don't have theinventory, no, which is kind of
annoying.
Right, it is annoying.
(04:10):
I did do a demand index thingwhich we can talk about when
we're through this pricing stuff.
But, yeah, it's really good tosee that our region's really
attractive and people arewanting it.
But within our local area herewe're also seeing even though
there's only 320 homes in themarket right now we're also
seeing price reductions.
We are, and that is really wild, but they're selling that they
are.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
I have stats on that today.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
Thank you, thank you very much for even bringing that
up.
Well then, go ahead.
I kind of brought it up thiswasn't actually even folks.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
I just want you to know we did not talk about this
ahead of time.
No, we did not.
This is something that we justit's like on our minds, yep,
always All the time that Brad'sa broker.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
We're both brokers now.
That's right.
I did pass my brokers yesterday30 years, but you're good.
Hugo, you want to talk about aslow learner, jesus Mighty.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
So what are you able to do now?
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Nothing, nothing.
Actually, I can give moreadvice, I guess, as an associate
broker.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
You can own your own company, I can own my own
company.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
It doesn't do much.
No, it doesn't do too much.
I can sign escrow checks.
You can.
Yes, I can sign an escrow check, oh good.
Which is good, which doesn'treally mean much to you.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
He's like so what Well, we were joking that most
brokers are broker than normal.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Yeah, that's what it is.
That's exactly it.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
There's a lot of other things that you must
attend to.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
It was more of a personal thing of just doing it
Right sure.
Because I've had so many timeswhere people are like you don't
have your brokers, you don'thave your brokers.
You've been doing this for 30years.
You don't have your brokers.
Yet I'm like you know what?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
I don't want to hear that anymore.
So you know how you.
You didn't have a dad makingyou do it.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
No, I did not, like I did back in my early career.
Yeah, no, not at all.
So what numbers you got there?
Speaker 2 (05:46):
So the price cuts we're talking about price cuts
coming back to normal again.
Yeah, and this is just theFebruaries.
This is just to give you abrief snapshot February of 2017,
there were 268,000.
This is national, by the way.
268,584 price cuts when we werelisting, they dropped the price
(06:08):
a little bit 19,.
It was 285, that was thehighest 285,000 and change.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
In 2022, 64,958.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
Is that a crazy?
That is crazy and that'snationwide, nationwide.
So this February, this Februarywe're at 26bruary 262, 262, 330
, which is getting back up tothat normal pre-covid
unreasonable sellers.
It is unreasonable sell so thatthe point is you can still
overprice your home absolutelyand the dangers of that are it
could backfire.
buyers might not even bother.
(06:40):
Yep right, they could sitlonger on the market, which
we're going to talk about in aminute, might wind up getting
less for the house.
Absolutely Okay, those are thethings.
So the median percentage ofasking price to sold price
nationally, the first one, two,three, four weeks of a listing,
you're still getting a hundredpercent.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Okay, so that means it's priced right.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
It's priced right.
Yeah, it's priced right, butthere could be some people
getting 110%, so what?
Speaker 1 (07:06):
you're saying is so we can break this down a little
bit is what you're saying isthat you're looking at list
price Yep and you're saying thatthe ones that are 100% of list
price, that means they'regetting full price.
Full price within the firstfour weeks.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Yep.
So first week, second, third,all the first four weeks.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
So after 30 days, what happens?
Speaker 2 (07:26):
So five to eight weeks it drops to 98.
Isn't that something?
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Pretty interesting right.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
We always used to say your biggest action is in the
first three.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
To four weeks, dude.
It's been like that since wegot in the business, ever since
the Earth's core.
Yes, yes.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Yeah.
And then nine to 16 weeks, it96 percent interesting and then
17 plus, it's 94 percent.
There's your case where you'regonna get less.
Yeah, you know absolutely wellwhat happens.
This is a median number, by theway.
Yeah, it's a median percentage.
You remember, I don't likemedian, neither do I, but, but
that's what it is.
(07:57):
You know, you take the high andthe low away and you got the
guy in the middle.
Yep, that's like that wholedime example we do.
But you know, but it's, butthat's what the stat we got.
So it's pretty encouraging.
And I looked up locally becausethat was national and, god
bless Michelle, I walked outwithout picking it up and she
took a quick snap for me.
I went back a year, okay, okay,and in March of 24, list
(08:21):
meeting was $259,900.
Sold meeting was $255,000.
Okay, okay, and then it goes,it's, and then it goes $280 to
$254 in February.
That's why that February numberwas off.
Right, because that's a bigprice reduction month.
Speaker 1 (08:36):
Yeah, it just naturally it's just in that way
Because of the winter.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yep, but here's the thing In March of this year, so
far, list is 275.
Sold is 275.
Oh, okay, yeah, yeah, $259,950.
Last month, $260.
Yeah, $50 more, yeah, okay, andthen the month before that,
$279,950, $280.
(09:02):
Yeah, we're hovering around100% right now yeah, right.
Yeah.
So that basically means if youprice your property Correctly,
properly, using an agent whoknows what they're doing and not
Zillow I'm going to say itagain you will get 100% of what
you're asking, or more or more,within the first four weeks of
the listing.
But you've got to do itproperly up front.
(09:22):
You've got to do it up front.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Yeah, I mean and it's not rocket science Just go by
whatever the values have beenthat are sold.
Yeah, you know, just hangaround that price and you should
be fine, that's it, you know.
Or even if you go a littlelower, sometimes you're even
better off, because then you getmultiple offers, you know.
So we're not having anyproblems with that.
But what's happening is, though, people are overpricing and and
(09:44):
you know, what I found too.
another thing that that I'vereally noticed showing houses to
buyers right now and losingoffers and those kinds of things
the quality of the homes arejust not as they're wanting.
That's the thing too.
It's not that there's so muchthat they're wanting, not so
much that they're overpricingthe property.
They're pricing them right, buttheir condition is under where
(10:08):
it needs to be for that price.
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
So that's one of the things that I'm finding too,
because some of these houses arejust a condition and you sit
there and you go.
Well, how are these peopleshowing this home like this?
Yeah, and then it's amazing Isyou?
Within a week, it's off themarket.
Then it ticks you off.
What are you smiling at,Laughing over there?
No, it wasn't.
Look, there was dog poop in thehouse or anything.
But the houses are just notthat great.
(10:33):
I mean, they need painting andthey need all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
Well, price, condition, location, all three
have to match right, yep, and sothat price and condition don't
seem to be meaning much rightnow.
And you're right, yeah, itmight take a little longer, yep,
but you're going to get it.
You're going to get it.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
And you might even get it really close to full
which is yeah, and I think youwill absolutely, absolutely,
yeah.
So you know, I'm hearing a lotagain about this and we've we've
beat this to death, I think,over the past year.
I know hugo is going to be like, oh, they're bringing that up
again, um, but no, I am seeingthis again on the on on social
media of people just going intothis panic mode.
Oh of the, the sky is fallingthat.
(11:14):
Oh my gosh, with the rateswhere they've been, this country
is going to have it worse than2008.
We're going to see foreclosuresall over the place.
You just wait and see andthey're scaring people from
buying or selling, more so thananything, and they just don't.
They're just not getting it.
It is not.
We are not in that situationnow and I even go back and I end
(11:35):
up arguing, not arguing.
Since I argue, I can respondwith facts and figures and an
opinion of what I think it'sgoing to be, and I just think
people just feel they're gettingthis bad information.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
They're confusing the financial crisis that we went
through in 08, which wasattached to real estate, to an
inventory crisis that we haveright now, and they are
completely two different crises,yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Well, the problem before was it was attached to
mortgages.
That's right.
Financing.
It was attached to financing.
It was attached to real estate.
Yeah, to real estate 100% 100%.
Yep.
Speaker 2 (12:08):
Yep, it was that Loan them 103, 3% of the value.
It started in 1998.
And I forget my dad.
My dad who's been an expert,yep.
It passed in Congress in 98.
My dad was just starting toretire and he says give it 10
years, it's going to crash.
And it did.
It did 2008.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And he called it.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
And it crashed in 10 years later.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Maybe we should have him in here for this podcast.
No, you probably should.
Hey, he sounds like he knows ahell of a lot more than you do,
jesus.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
You don't know where I get my information from.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
From your dad.
Is that all your dad's?
Speaker 2 (12:36):
information.
Speaker 1 (12:42):
And then Chris gets it from me.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Well, I get mine from the eight ball, so it can't be
any better.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
It's a red one too.
It's a red one, That'd be sharp.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Those are the ones that are right.
That's right, those are theright ones.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Oh my God.
But yeah, so interestinglyenough, this is what we want to.
I want to bring this up again.
Yeah, is that through the lastsix recessions?
Okay, people also confusedrecession with depreciation of
home value.
That's right.
Okay, that is not always thecase.
In fact, out of the last sixrecessions, only two of them one
(13:12):
was 2008.
That was an anomaly.
Saw a lowering of values ofhomes.
So recession 1980, prices ofhouses went up 6.1% 1981, 3.5%
1991, another recession onlywent down 1.9% 2001,.
(13:33):
Small recession went up 6.6%values.
Now, this is the one that isthe anomaly here 2008, recession
, whatever.
We lost almost 20% in value.
Oh yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
It took like three years to get out of it.
And then 2020, we had a smallrecession again because of COVID
and values went up 6% that year.
So just because if we would,you know if we would go into
recession, that does notautomatically mean we're going
to lose a value, and even if wedo lose one or 2%, I think it's
okay.
(14:05):
We've gained how much?
Right, exactly, yeah, it'samazing.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
That's a good point.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
Yeah, I just like to show, because I think what
happens is people hear recession, recession, recession, and and
it doesn't always mean thatthat's going to be a bad thing I
mean we've been in recessionsand only people don't even know
it.
Right, you know?
It's kind of like once you knowit, you're already through it.
Yeah, that's it.
What is it?
Two quarters of negative GDP,gdp, yeah, yeah, which really?
Speaker 2 (14:30):
doesn't mean a lot.
It doesn't mean much.
It doesn't mean much.
It really hasn't affected us.
No, no, it really hasn't Inreal estate.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
it doesn't really affect us.
It's not like we're a shortpoint.
We created, though, in 2008, wecreated the recession.
Oh yeah, we did yes we did.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
That's what's so funny about that.
Congress did Yep.
We created that Yep was goingto buy a house yeah, I remember.
I remember even the speeches.
Oh yeah, we're going to makesure everyone's going to own a
house.
That's not the way to do it.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
You can't do it.
You gotta be prepared.
Yeah, you gotta qualify, yeah.
Yeah, it should be merit-basedlike everything else.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Remember those yeah, those, uh.
Hey, we'll give you a loan.
Don't worry about giving me anyinformation.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
You know, I totally remember that.
Oh my gosh what, yeah it, yeah,it's crazy, it's crazy.
So what else you got?
Speaker 2 (15:14):
Hey, well, I did a home demand index evaluation of
our region.
Unfortunately, a trend doesn't.
I keep calling it a trend.
I know what you meant, right,right, yeah, doesn't do Burke
County on this type of they doregion, they do region on this
type of.
And home demand is importantbecause I think as we come into
the season it's going up, andsure enough, even though right
(15:41):
now in the Philly region, whichwe are, it's 71.
Now the higher it goes towards100, the better, the more demand
there is.
Right, exactly.
So.
71 is considered slow.
However, last month it was 65.
So it's better.
We're at 71.
It's good, it's increasing.
The prior year this time was 77.
Okay, okay, I attribute that towhat we just spoke about.
The interest rate lock freezeyeah, it's still taking effect
(16:03):
on us in the low inventory.
Yeah, but the category singlefamily, zero to 350, it's up,
it's up.
It's at 69.
Okay, up to 65 from last yearthis time A 350 to 765, right,
it's at 58, which is up from 55.
Good, 765 plus is up From 41 to51.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
That demand is up.
Up there's a higher.
That's amazing.
That statistic is the highest.
So the higher price range is up.
The demand is up, higher theluxury market is higher in this
region.
Well, we are in the Phillyregion now.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
It's the Philly region.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
So 700 is not a lot.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
It's not Condos, actually, no, I lied, condos is
95.
Wow, now remember if you getinto the hundreds.
You're, yep, it's affordable.
Affordable, yeah, but this isthe $0 to $412,000 condo market
Right Is up 95 from 85.
And the 412 plus condo marketis 119 up from 99.
(17:00):
Wow.
So, people are moving.
Wow, look at that.
They're looking at condos, yeah.
Well, and that's one of thethings For a lot of different
reasons, right?
Speaker 1 (17:07):
Hey, you know, if you want to buy in this market and
you're having a hard time andyou keep losing offers at $250
or $300, consider lowering yourstandards to a $250 home and
offer a little bit more and be astronger buyer in a lower price
range.
Exactly, if you're tapped outat $300, you're not going to
look as good to the seller.
(17:29):
But if you're at 250, if youstart looking at 250 and you're
approved to 300 and you have alittle you have a little bit
more money there and things likethat you're going to look
better to the seller.
So you might, and here's thething you're getting into the
market.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Then start there, yeah, and then four years.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
So now go buy the house that has everything you
want.
Speaker 2 (17:46):
Yeah, and rent it maybe, or sell it Exactly
Townhouse twins, all semis andtownhouses, all prices up from
78 to 84.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Yeah, so the demand is definitely going up.
All of these are up.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
by the way, they're all.
All of them are up.
That's good, okay.
So we're coming into a seasonaltrend, I think, and the
demand's up.
So people are getting used tothe six point.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
Well, that goes right into mine.
Whatever you got, rates aredeclining faster than expected.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Yeah, and we didn't rehearse this folks.
No, we didn't.
We didn't.
I swear to God, we didn't.
We probably should the showwould be a hell of a lot better
if we did.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
We always talk about how.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
I'm always late and all that.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
Yeah, maybe Besides my mom.
Yeah, right, but no, what's?
The interest rate Rates aredeclining faster than they
expected.
So basically, what it says hereis we're at like 6.53.
I'm looking oh, okay, no, I'msorry.
So right now it's at 6.7.
Okay, they're saying quarterone forecast for 2025, which is
now 6.97.
Quarter one forecast for 2025,which is now 6.97.
(18:51):
The forecast for quarter two is6.87, 6.68 for quarter three
and 6.53 for quarter four.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
6.63 right now yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
So the rates are actually dropping faster than
what they thought.
And that also has to be, Ithink, because uh inflation is
is getting in check.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
It is yeah inflation is getting in check to do with.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
Um, and you know, I think things are the banks are
probably not lending as muchmoney as they'd like to.
Exactly, they got to lend money, right?
Yep, they don't let money, theydon't make money.
Yeah, that it's got to besomething going on, yep.
So that was interesting too tosee that.
And and really, you know, if weget to low sixes, people should
be jumping on that.
I think they will.
They should be jumping on that,and that's where I think
(19:32):
sellers hopefully will start toput a sign in the yard and move
and do what they need to do.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
There's a lot of people that I'm sure you are too
consulting about selling thebig house.
Pull the equity, get thedownsized house.
Absolutely, they're just goingto be so much better positioned
to take that lower mortgage at ahigher rate.
Absolutely Probably not changetheir payment at all, maybe even
lower.
Yeah, that's, it's really allabout the payment.
Yeah, really, that's what it'sabout.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
And even if you have to, like I said before, even if
you do have to pay 200 bucks amonth more, but if you're living
where the conditions that youmaybe need minutes, first floor,
all first floor living.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (20:10):
If you have to pay $200 more for that, then you got
to pay $200 more.
I mean, that's that's not muchyou can do about that, that's
right.
So, yeah, there was somenumbers too about how the the um
was.
The millennials and and andbaby boomers Like of them, own
their homes without any mortgageRight, Free and clear.
(20:31):
Yeah, so it'll be interesting.
So what's going to happen isyou're going to have the
millennials buying the babyboomers homes at some point, but
they got to move, Yep, so we'rejust going to have to tell baby
boomers you need to just put asign in front of your front yard
.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Let's just go.
This is enough of this crap.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Okay, we're done with it.
You're getting older.
Get your house up for sale.
Is that a problem to talk likethat?
Speaker 2 (20:51):
No, I don't think so no, I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (20:52):
Come on, I don't think so.
Of course my dad will be likethat was offensive, that was
offensive.
I love it, oh my goodness.
So, yeah, so anything else you?
Have no, no.
Speaker 2 (21:05):
You're good.
No, I'm good.
Yes, all right, that soundsgood.
We were good today, right?
I just want to saycongratulations for your broker.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Oh, thank you, bud.
I appreciate that.
I appreciate that.
Yeah, you know it took a while,but I finally did it.
Welcome to the club, yeah it'sawesome, it's a good club.
I don't feel any different.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
We reduced.
Yeah, it's great, we'll giveyou a sticker.
Speaker 1 (21:27):
Just what I need a sticker, yeah okay, all right,
that's it for this month forPete.
He's out of here and no, butthanks for checking in again.
Thursdays at 7 pm Once a month.
We do, pete, just to talk aboutsome real estate.
Check out the show everyThursday.
We've got some great guestscoming up.
Lots of good people, peoplewriting books, people that are
motivational speakers, all thatkind of stuff.
Check it out.
(21:48):
All right, that's about it.
We'll see you next Thursday, 7pm.
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