Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap

MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini.

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The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-Special

Hosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)

Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.

Key Segments & Talking Points:

(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)

• [00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election Overview
• Joel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.
• Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.
• Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.
• Libs sent into an "existential crisis."
• Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.
• Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).
• Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.
• [00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to Labor
• Previous first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.
• Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).
• Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.
• Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.
• [00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outs
• Reminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).
• CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.
• [00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal Optimism
• Reiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.
• Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:
• Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).
• Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).
• Essential: 53.5%.
• YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.
• Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.
• The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.
• [00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor Gains
• Gilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.
• Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.
• Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).
• Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.
• Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.
• Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.
• Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).
• Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).
• [00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in Politics
• Praise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).
• Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.
• Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.
• Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.
• Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."
• [00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & Challenges
• Initial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.
• Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Tea