The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams

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Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.

Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)

Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong Jack

In this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.

(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."

(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.

(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:

• Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.
• A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.

(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.

• The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.

(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.

(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:

• The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.
• A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).
• Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.

(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.

(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.

• The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.
• Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.
• Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.

(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:

• NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.
• QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.
• TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.
• ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.
• Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.

(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks