Economic Cycle Still Has Room to Run, Even With Tariffs: Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs.

This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here.

Content Highlights

• The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);
• Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
• Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
• Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);
• Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

More on the Guest

• Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
• Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.