The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

Markets may be uncertain, but the LightBox team is keeping it grounded—with some perspective and invoking the classic Gimme Shelter. As investors brace for tariff fallout, Manus, Dianne, and Martha break down the latest headline fatigue, a housing market under pressure, and the question of whether the lending engine will keep running. The team dives into a stalled $778M securitization deal, a funding $17B pipeline on pause, and why...

The timing for this conversation couldn’t have been better. 

Former Federal Reserve insider Tyler Wiggers gives us a break down on what the Fed is thinking right now about monetary policy especially in the wake of the tariff turmoil and market volatility.  He shares why rate cuts may be further off than the market (and the Trump administration) hopes, and how the Fed is tracking stress points in real time, including CRE loan concent...

Rick Jones, Founder and Principal of Jackstay Ventures LLC, joins the LightBox crew to unpack the latest capital markets chaos stirred up by post-tariff volatility and macro uncertainty.  The conversation spans the latest pulse on recession risk and lender behavior to the evolving role of warehouse lending and the long-awaited wave of distressed debt. Rick’s take? The CRE market is doing just fine—but there are some tells that he s...

The team breaks down what Manus calls “tariffs on steroids” and why the impact is more opaque than anything we’ve seen before. With investors reacting to tariffs with a stock sell-off and a flight to the safety of Treasurys, the discussion focuses on the potential impact to commercial real estate (CRE).  Is CRE the new safe harbor? The LightBox CRE Activity Index suggests yes—for now. March saw its highest reading since September 2...

This week the LightBox podcast team talks with Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) about the CRE debt market. Together, they discuss the current landscape of the commercial real estate finance market, highlighting a sharp rebound in market sentiment and CMBS issuance volumes. And, despite the robust levels of new issuance, lenders are proceeding with a disciplined approach to underwr...

A round of mixed economic data took a back seat to the investor focus on the Federal Reserve meeting. With the expected no change on interest rates, the focus was on Chairman Powell’s outlook, inflation forecasts – (yes, he said transitory again), and how the stock market corrections are shaping investor sentiment. The team also unpacks new data about the impact of tariffs, especially on consumer confidence and housing. In the comm...

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock market. Despite the turbulence, th...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne tackle another week of economic uncertainty, breaking down the latest data—and tariff turbulence—and what it signals for CRE. Stagflation fears are creeping in as the economy weathers a turbulent cycle—much like a white-water rafting trip, where each rapid brings fresh uncertainty. Mortgage applications jumped over 20% as buyers seized lower rates, while a surprising wave of scorched land listings in LA hi...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down the latest twists that impacted the commercial real estate market this week, from bond yields and the flipping yield curve to the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest pending home sales reading in over 25 years—all signaling a bumpy road ahead. The team asks: are we stuck in the mud? The retail sector is facing its own turbulence, with store closures and layoffs, but some positive signs as ...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down a short, yet jam-packed week in the markets, from the Fed’s “status quo” minutes and weak housing data to Walmart’s downbeat retail outlook and a major shake-up in government office leases. They dissect the 2.3 million square feet of leases on the chopping block—half in D.C.—and the ripple effects for landlords, small-town economies, and lenders. While CRE sentiment is cautiously optimistic, no ...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne dig into the latest economic data, including inflation reports that sent mixed signals to the markets. Consumer inflation came in hotter than expected, rattling the bond markets, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a steady stance, signaling no rush to adjust policy. The team also discussed the downstream effects of federal layoffs, the cautiously optimistic forecast for CRE lending in 2025, and the sentimen...

Investors had plenty to chew on this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from earnings reports to Trump tariff turbulence, keeping heads on a swivel amid policy uncertainty. Treasury rates drifted lower, sparking cautious optimism, while Professor Manus broke down a major federal workforce buyout and what it could mean for unemployment. On the CRE front, the LightBox Activity Index brought s...

The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data centers, power demand, and the broader m...

Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO and adjunct professor at Columbia, never holds back and this week he joined the LightBox team to break down what lies ahead in 2025. The conversation centered on key questions: Has the market soured on the Fed? What can the office market learn from retail? And what predictions does he have for the year ahead as Trump policies start to take effect? From the cautious sentiment around the increase...

Fresh economic data brought a much-needed sigh of relief this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from the “Goldilocks prints” to the bullish outlook among lenders eager to return to dealmaking. Manus coined a new term, “office collateral damage,” comparing the current state of office space to the retail apocalypse of years past. The team also weighed in on the economic fallout from the Sout...

In a week that was chock full of economic data for investors to digest, there was no lack of market news for Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker to consider as a bond rout took hold, and wildfires continued to burn out of control in the Los Angeles area leaving a path of devastation. With the holidays firmly in the rear-view mirror, the team takes a spin through the spirit of the U.S. economy’s past, present, and futur...

In the first episode of 2025, guest host Tina Lichens, General Manager of LightBox Capital Markets joins Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker to kick off the new year with an encouraging look back at the final few weeks of 2024 and a forward-looking discussion of expectations for the New Year. Tina’s observation of an unexpected surge in property listings on the LightBox RCM® platform during the final weeks of 2024 dovetails with bullis...

This week, Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker take a look back at CRE’s hits and misses in 2024 with a review of "Successes, Setbacks, and Surprises."   The discussion covers 2024 as a tale of two halves, from the successes—like banks resuming lending, impressive CMBS volumes, and double-digit growth in the LightBox CRE Activity Index—to the setbacks, including the inconsistent path of the 10-year Treasury, ...

This week, Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker unpack the mixed signals from the latest economic data including November’s wholesale inflation report, which came in hotter than expected, alongside an expected uptick in consumer inflation and a notable jump in weekly jobless claims.  All this, while Wall Street has come off a mixed session with some sky-high valuations.  Is the Fed getting bullied by the market to proce...