Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Already and this this is the Daily This is the
Daily OS.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Oh now it makes sense.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday,
the sixteenth of September. I'm Emma Gillespie.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I'm Lucy Tassel.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
The Government has released its first assessment of the risks
posed by climate.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Change across Australia.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
The report paints a concerning picture, with predictions about what
the future could look like if rising temperatures are not curbed,
including a four hundred and fifty percent increase in heat
related deaths in some parts of the country. Overall, the
risk assessment warns that no Australian community will be immune.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
But the government says it has a plan.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Today we are breaking down what this assessment found, what
these findings mean for Australia's future, and how experts say
we need to move forward in what is shaping up
to be a very big climate week for the government
with its twenty thirty five emissions reduction target expected by Friday.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
So, Emma, this is the first time we've received a
report like this. For those listening who might not understand,
perhaps for your co host in the studio who might
not know what is this National Climate Risk Assessment.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Yes, so this is a publication a report from the
Australian Climate Service. Now that is a government partnership of
multi agencies including the Bureau of Meteorology, the csir ROW,
the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. So those
expert groups have come together to assess how climate change
(01:47):
will impact eight key systems across our society. So this
includes our communities, defense, the economy, health, infrastructure, the national environment,
primary industries, and First Nations groups. So the risk assessment,
as you mentioned, Lucy, is the first time we've had
something like this, a nationally consistent, evidence based evaluation of
(02:11):
climate risks across all these different areas. So basically it's
the most comprehensive analysis of climate risks to date. But
what is interesting about it is that it looks at
climate impacts really broadly in terms of how they will
affect not just the environment, but health systems, infrastructure, the economy,
all of those systems at once.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
So what are the key findings so we should know
about So I.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Do have to warn you that most of the findings
are pretty dark.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
It is a pretty grim assessment.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
So I want that to be what we're holding on
to going in, but also knowing that there is a plan,
a strategy, and a framework we're going to get to. Okay,
But the risk assessment models outcomes under three warming scenarios
to assess what will happen at different stages, So there's
kind of a forecast of how bad will things be
at one point five degrees of warming, two degrees and
(03:04):
three degrees of warming above pre industrial levels. Now, based
on current global projections, the world is on track to
see two point nine degrees of warming this century, So
the worst case scenario in this report is not that
far out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
And that's a lot more than what we've talked about
on this podcast before in terms of the Paris Agreement
seeking to limit emissions to reduce warming to less than
one point five degrees ex industrial level. So two point
nine is almost.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
Double that exactly, and Australia has already reached one point
five degrees. The headline finding is that climate risks to
Australia are escalating rapidly and will worsen significantly by twenty
fifty without action.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
What is particularly concerning is that these risks don't exist
in isolation. They quote compound and cascade across different systems.
So an example of this is a major flood right
doesn't just damage housing and infrastructure. It disrupts supply chains,
affects mental health, it impacts agriculture, It can overwhelm emergency services,
(04:13):
It can cost the government in disaster relief funding. There
are insurance implications. So this assessment is really looking at
that bigger picture, and it found that many of Australia's
climate hazards will become more intense and occurrent areas that
haven't experienced them before. So we're looking at more frequent
heat waves, bushfires, flooding, coastal hazards from rising sea levels
(04:36):
more intensely in more places, more frequently.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
What are some of the places that are most at risk?
Speaker 3 (04:42):
So the assessment identifies several key areas of particular concern.
The first is Northern Australia, so this includes the Northern
Territory and parts of Queensland and Wa. We know these
regions are exposed to multiple climate hazards including heat waves, flooding,
tropical cyclones, bushfires, often simultaneously. So the forecast is that
(05:04):
that gets worse in that part of the country. Coastal
communities ride across Australia as well, though, face heightened risks
from rising sea levels. According to the Risk Assessment So
it found that by twenty fifty, the number of coastal
communities in high and very high risk areas will more
than double from eight to eighteen percent, and if current
(05:24):
populations remained the same, this would mean one and a
half million people living in areas experiencing rising sea levels
and coastal flooding risks by twenty to fifty.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
And I mean when you say coastal communities, I think
of population maps I've seen of Australia, which shows that
pretty much everywhere in Australia is a coastal community, even
if it might not feel like it. If you're in,
for example, where I am, you know, further into the west,
I'm not like on the sea, but I'm still in
what could be classified as a coastal community.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
You live in a major city on the eastern seaboard, Yeah, exactly.
As you've mentioned, most Australians do live in quote unquote
coast communities. Remote communities as well, though, according to this report,
are particularly vulnerable. They often depend on single supply chains,
so there's limited infrastructure and access issues when something goes wrong.
(06:13):
These communities have fewer alternatives and that also is set
to worsen with worsening climate outcomes.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah, we've touched a little bit on the cities. The
place is where most Australians tend to live. But what
more can you tell me about the projected impacts on
the cities?
Speaker 3 (06:29):
Yes, so specifically in outer urban areas of cities. The
report notes that these places are watch points because they're
particularly susceptible to adverse impacts due to their location, demographics
and exposure to hazards. Coastal cities, as we've touched on,
face significant challenges from rising sea levels, and urban centers
(06:50):
are increasingly at risk from extreme heat events, which the
risk assessment noted strain energy systems and impact public health services.
The projects heat wave deaths will increase really significantly. This
is a major headline out of this report.
Speaker 1 (07:06):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
For example, in Sydney and Darwin, current warming scenarios could
lead to a predicted four hundred percent surge.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
In heat wave deaths.
Speaker 1 (07:15):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Even under the lower one point five degrees of warming scenario,
where we are at heat wave mortality would still double.
Health broadly is one of the systems facing the most
severe risk escalations, So current health risks are listed as
moderate to high, but they are expected to reach severe
levels by twenty fifty. Interestingly, diseases like Dangi fever, Japanese
(07:40):
and cavalitis these are also likely to spread as temperatures
and rainfall patterns change. So the report notes that healthcare
systems are less experienced in managing these kinds of diseases.
And then there's a whole other conversation about preparedness.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
So one of the things that could change for Australia
if more and more people are getting in different and
new ways, is that the economy can be affected because
if people aren't able to work or it's very difficult
to do certain jobs because of the weather, that has
like long term flow on effects. Exactly What else did
it say about the economy, So.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
The report discussed insurance losses from natural disasters. We know
that these have surged in recent years, but they're predicted
to continue increasing. You know, with that comes increased premiums,
communities getting priced out of insurance policies and as a result,
government emergency disaster spending will also search to support impacted communities.
(08:37):
Looking ahead, projected disaster costs across all states and territories
could total more than forty billion dollars per year by
twenty fifty. That's under the most moderate emissions scenario. So
that is a figure that includes both financial and social costs.
And this stood out to me is really interesting. The
report estimates that Australian property values could face losses of
(08:59):
more than six hundred billion dollars by twenty fifty. So
that's the kind of housing impact of the cost of
coastal erosion, flooding, rising sea levels. You know, you don't
often hear the property market discussed in such grand losses.
We usually are talking in the complete reverse terms. The
(09:19):
report also noted that increased and more intense heat waves
will strain energy systems at the exact time when people
are going to need them the most, and you know
this could see power prices surge even further.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
We've now touched on people quite a bit. What about
our natural environment? How are our ecosystems expected to cope
with all of these changes?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Yeah, this is honestly one of the most concerning areas.
The natural environment as we already know, as we've discussed
at length here before, you know, faces really high risk
from climate change, and this is expected to escalate to
severe levels.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
By twenty fifty.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
So by that point, between forty and seventy percent of
native plants species will be exposed to climatic conditions that
they don't currently experience, So then those plants will be
facing potential extinction events. Our coral reefs face an almost
certain risk of catastrophic consequences. You know, even at current
levels of warming, ocean pH is projected to change significantly,
(10:20):
making it so much harder for corals and shell making
organisms to survive. And the report warns of potential ecosystem
collapse in many, many years. With this sort of cascading
effect on the services these ecosystems provide so clean water,
coastal protection, carbon storage.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I could go on.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Just from my quick look at the report, I know
it also examines risks to First Nations communities specifically, what
can you tell me about that?
Speaker 3 (10:46):
So, the risk assessment identified seven nationally significant climate risks
specifically affecting Aboriginal and Torrestrate islander peoples. These include physical
impacts as well as threats to connection to country threats,
to connection to cultural practices which can have significant social
and emotional impacts as well. For torrist Rate Islander communities,
(11:08):
the assessment looked at rising sea levels, which pose direct
threats to homes and cultural sites. So, you know, the
ongoing theme of this assessment is what looks like maybe
one risk is you know, really representative of an entire
suite of threats.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Yeah, so governments don't tend to release documents this bleak
without also having some kind of accompanying action. What has
the government said they're going to do about all of this?
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Yeah, so you're absolutely right.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Alongside this risk assessment, we have a National Adaptation Plan.
This is basically looking at, okay, how can we adapt
policies to move or grow with climate change, to get
ahead of climate change.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
So you know, it's not all bleak.
Speaker 3 (11:53):
There are some kind of scaling up of climate change approaches,
emissions reductions efforts that would mitigate a lot of these risks,
or at least reduce them or improve our resilience, you know,
lessening the impact of climate disaster. So this policy framework
notes some initiatives that are already underway. This includes Australia's
(12:13):
first national Health and Climate strategy, and something called the
Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area Climate Resilience Center, which
is being established to support communities facing immediate climate impacts.
Exactly how the government will respond to this risk assessment
remains to be seen. This plan kind of emphasizes that
climate response is a dynamic and moving kind of living,
(12:37):
breathing thing. It's not a static, one fix, one page solution.
The government's really talking about bigger picture ideas, working with states,
territories and local governments to create an action agenda for
this plan, which it's promising by the end of next year.
So you know it might sound depressing, but it is
(12:58):
just the beginning. Really, this is a stepping stone. We
have this risk assessment and now we need to continue
monitoring and updating how we understand conditions changing and as
we learn more about climate and its impacts and how
they unfold, policy makers will respond appropriately according to what
this plan says.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
How have those policy makers responded so far so.
Speaker 3 (13:21):
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen called the
Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan a quote roadmap to address
the unavoidable impacts of climate change to build a more
resilient country for all communities, regions and industries. Greens leader
Senator Larissa Waters said, quote the revelations about Australia's future
under climate change detailed in this report are chilling. The
(13:44):
Climate Council, which is an independent not for profit, the
Greens and independent Zali Steggle have all separately responded to
the findings, criticizing the government's approvals of recent coal, oil
and gas projects, which they separately say are holding Australia
back from emissions reduction targets. And Waters said quote, this
report must be a wake up call for labor ahead
(14:06):
of their twenty thirty five climate target.
Speaker 1 (14:08):
Decision, which is due this week right.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Exactly so really quick.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Refresher countries signed up to the Paris Agreement that includes
Australia are set to announce their emissions targets for twenty
thirty five ahead of this year's COP thirty climate conference
in Brazil. So Australia, as part of that group, is
actually expected to announce its target later this week. Thursday
or Friday are the days that we are hearing rumored
for the big announcement.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
The government so far.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
Hasn't made any firm commitments to put the target into law.
It's been awaiting analysis for a sixty five to seventy
five percent emissions reduction target from the Climate Change Authority
to inform its decision. Now the Climate Council separately is
urging the government to legislate the strongest possible twenty thirty
five climate target, and it called the risk assessment this
(14:57):
week a horror story. But Lucy, this this is not
the last you are going to hear about all of
this over the coming days, I can promise you that,
So brace yourself for several other reports, including on net zero.
There's a report coming on how to reduce pollution across
the economy and critically the twenty thirty five target alongside
(15:17):
the Climate Change Authorities advice.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Thanks so much for explaining all of that to us.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Emma, thank you for having me strap in. It's going
to be a big one.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
It's going to be a big one, and we will
be keeping all of you updated over on the TDA
feed and probably back in this podcast feed again. We'll
be back this afternoon with the headlines. Until then, have
a great day. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm
a proud Arunda Bungelung Kalkuttin woman from Gadigl country. The
(15:46):
Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the
lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all
Aboriginal and Torres Strait island and nations. We pay our
respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past
and present.