Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Already and this is this is the Daily OS. Oh,
now it makes sense.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Good morning, and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Monday,
the fifth of May. I'm Zara Seidler.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I am Belly FitzSimons.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
It's official Labor has won the federal election in what
can only be described as a landslide victory.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
And it is with a deep sense of humility and
a profound sense of responsibility that the first thing that
I do tonight is to say thank you to the
people of Australia for the chance to continue to serve
the best nation on earth.
Speaker 4 (00:46):
Earlier on I called the Prime Minister to congratulate him
on his success tonight. Now, we didn't do well enough
during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight, and I
accept for responsibility for that.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
It was a histoicick win, with Anthony Alberanezi becoming the
first Prime Minister since John Howard in two thousand and
four to win two elections in a row. Not only
did the Labor Party win, but they increased the majority
with which they will now govern in Australia. Today we're
breaking down exactly what happened on Saturday and what do
will mean for the country moving.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Forward, Zara, we were just saying whether or not people
predicted this. I feel like the polling they did predict
a Labor majority government, but not like this. This was
a complete landslide.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
I mean, shout out to you, gov, because the day
before the election they published their last polling or their
last predictions, and it was like pretty much exactly this.
But yes, widely we were hearing and reading about a majority,
perhaps not the vast majority that Labor will now govern with.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
So do you want to just take us through by
how much did Labor actually win this election?
Speaker 2 (01:55):
By a lot? Is the short answer so at this stage,
and it's important to recognize that counting continues as we speak,
so I will just preface it by saying this could change.
But right now, Labor has won at least eighty five
seats in the House of Representatives. That's according to the ABC.
As we've spoken about many times on this podcast before,
(02:15):
any party needs seventy six to govern with a majority,
and so not only has Labor got to that seventy six,
but they have well and truly exceeded that number. At
the last election, just for context, Labor picked up seventy
seven seats so they've increased from seventy seven to at
least eighty five, with potentially more on the way.
Speaker 1 (02:35):
Yeah, at least in my lifetime. I don't remember anything
like this happening before, with Labour winning by such a landside.
The only thing I can compare it to is when
Kevin Rudd won in two thousand and seven. But I
don't know if that will resonate with listeners. I mean,
I don't remember it, but I remember hearing about it
for so many years after because it was such a
decisive victory for Kevin Rudd. But his government won by
(02:59):
eighty three seats. So Anthony Albanezi and the Labor Party
has actually won by even more than Kevin rudwan when
he did it with that very famous slogan. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
And I think what's interesting here is that I don't
know if we've spoken about it on the pod, but
in the days leading up to a federal election, or
any election really, a lot of traditional newspapers will publish
their kind of editorials, their endorsements for which candidate they
believe should win. And what I found remarkable about the
endorsements this year was that basically every newspaper across the
(03:29):
country was saying neither leader deserves to win and neither
party deserves to win. And yet despite the fact that
many were claiming this was an uninspiring election where they
didn't think that anyone deserved a clear majority, the people
have suggested otherwise.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Yeah, so that's labor. Yeah, but let's talk about the coalition.
We know objectively it was a very bad night for them.
It was you won't just tell us about their loss.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
Okay. So at this stage, the coalition, which is the
Liberals and the Nationals, they've won at least thirty seven seats.
Now at the last election they won fifty eight seats,
so they were looking to increase obviously the number of
seats that they held. They wanted to reach that seventy
six number. Not only did they not reach that, but
they have quite substantially gone backwards. They have lost a
(04:17):
lot of seats, so they're looking at a loss of
potentially twenty seats in the House of Reps and wild Yeah,
it's a really significant loss. And I think we'll go
into what Peter Dunn has said about it and what
people in the party are saying. But I know that
David Spears over on the ABC on election night was
suggesting that this could be the coalition's lowest ever primary vote.
(04:39):
So the coalition is looking right now a bit of
an existential threat to their future here.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Yeah, and we should mention that Peter Dunnan, the Liberal leader,
he lost his own seat of Dixon, which we talked
about in the lead up to the election as a possibility,
but we said that's quite rare that it would ever happen.
In fact, if we go back to the two thousand
and seven election that was just.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Talking about getting a lot of edge this election.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
The last time that this happened was when John Howard
did lose to Kevin Rudd.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Yeah, exactly. And so while Peter Dundon had kind of
presided over this marginal seat for decades, like, it wasn't
new that Dixon was a marginal seat. Ali Franz, who
ended up winning the seat off him, had actually contested
that seat three times. So it wasn't necessarily that it
was surprising that the seat was marginal, but it was
certainly a surprised that Peter Dudden lost that seat. But
(05:30):
the swing against the Liberal Party certainly had a lot
of attention on election night.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
I was going to say, to put it into context,
by how much Peter Duddan lost his own seat. That
seat of Dixon at the next election will not even
be considered marginal by the technical definition. Yeah, Ali France
won that seat by much more than fifty six percent
of the votes, which is the technical definition for what
it needs to be under for a marginal seat. So
(05:57):
the fact that at the next election Dixon won't even
be considered my marginal is quite wild.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
I don't know if this is a rogue thing to say.
I don't think the term marginal seat holds much value anymore.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
I was thinking that because you know, I'm sure the
Liberal Party will try to win that seat back, but
the fact that it was such a decisive win for
Ali Franz is just crazy.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
But like last election, there are a bunch of marginal seats.
This election, there are a bunch of marginal seats. Half
of them have turned out, you know, some people have
increased their majority. I just think some of the language
that we're using perhaps isn't serving the modern political circumstances
we find ourselves in.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
I guess you could say that the swings have been swinging.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Yes, yes, lots swinging. So far of swinging seriously and
what have you.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
Heard people saying about why the Coalition lost this election?
I guess there are two ways you can look at it,
Labor winning and the Coalition losing. But let's just focus
on the Coalition losing. What are experts saying about why
that happened?
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yes, So on election night we heard from a lot
of Liberal or Coalition senators and MPs about what they
were seeing on fold and something that really stuck out
to me was James Patterson, who's a Liberal senator. He
was very explicit about the impact of Donald Trump's presidency
on the Liberal Party and I hadn't heard it as
(07:12):
explicitly recognized by the Liberal Party themselves until election night,
but he was saying the Trump effect was monumental and
that it was an impossible hurdle for the Liberal Party
to overcome. We know that if we look at Canada
and we now look here, the effect of the Trump
presidency has seen a return to kind of centrist incumbent
governments and that's what's happened here. And so I think
(07:34):
that is probably one of the biggest factors, or certainly
that's what the Liberal Party is saying is one of
the biggest factors. I will just recognize though, that that
is an external factor, so it makes sense that some
people inside the party will be pointing to that because
they couldn't really control it.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
You mentioned Canada for those who missed it. Canada did
also just have an election and they saw their center
left party when in a landside as well. In terms
of an internal factor of why the coalition loss, I
wonder if it did have something to do with the
youth vote, because this was the first election that Gen
Z and millennials outnumbered Baby boomers. And you know, even
(08:12):
at the Daily Os we tried to interview Peter Dudden
many times. We are the biggest youth publisher in Australia
and it's not just that Peter Dudden refused to speak
to us, but from my understanding, he refused to basically
speak to any youth news service in the country.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
That certainly could be one factor. I mean, the Liberal
Party lost votes at every kind of step of the
demographic ladder, so it'll be interesting to see. Usually after
an electoral loss, we do see the party that loses
do an analysis of what happened at the election. It's
usually run by someone inside the party and then someone
kind of adjacent to the party. So we'll wait to
(08:48):
see what happens there and what the Liberal Party attributes
to the loss. Because last election, when the Teals were
very successful, the Liberal Party analysis found that they needed
to do more to court women and to bring women
in the party, and so this time it'll be interesting
to see what the outcome of that analysis is.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
Let's move to minor parties and independence. First, the Greens.
They definitely did not have the night that they were
hoping for.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
No, so while the Greens did increase their overall primary vote,
they have struggled to retain or pick up any new
seats in the House of Representatives. So starting with Leader
Adam Bant, he held the seat of Melbourne with a
very comfortable margin. He has seen quite a swing away
from him in that seat. The ABC at the time
(09:34):
of recording hasn't called it for band. He is slightly
ahead though, so it does look like he'll be able
to retain that seat. But aside from Melbourne, the Greens
have already conceded the seats of Griffith and Brisbane. Those
were two seats they picked up at the last election,
and certainly Max Chandler Mather, who was the MP for Griffith,
(09:55):
had been quite a focus of the media and he
had dominated a lot of headlines. So that was a
big one for the Greens to lose. Putting aside the
Greens for a moment, because we know that the cross
bench is made up not only of the Greens but
also of independents and other minor parties. Every single Teal
who contested the election, so everyone who was an MP
(10:17):
previously and contested, they all retained their seats. So every
single Teal MP retained their seat. And I think again,
to talk about the Liberal Party, that will be an
interesting thing for them to look at because they broadly
considered the Teal movement to be a moment in time,
a protest vote as it were, and this shows that
(10:37):
they have actually not only been re elected, but most
of them have actually increased their margins as well.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
So interesting. I feel like we could do a podcast
analyzing the results of you know, each party, each independent,
the Greens, all so interesting, but I want to move on.
So so far we have focused on the House of
Representatives and that's because that is the house where government forms. Yeah,
but Australia was also voting for half of the Senate. Correct,
do you want to take us through what happened in
(11:04):
the Senate.
Speaker 2 (11:05):
I don't want to disappoint listeners. But there is a
lot that we don't know. So the counting for the
Senate takes quite a bit longer, as you said, because
it's not where government is formed. It tends to take
a bit longer to understand what we're looking at. There
are predictions that Labor could increase its majority in the
Upper House, but nothing there is confirmed. A lot of
(11:26):
the headlines that we saw over the weekend focus on
one senator in particular. That was act Senator David Pocock,
and we've spoken about him a lot on this podcast before,
but what is being focused on this time is that
he looks like he has doubled his vote from the
last election. So he was a first time senator at
the last election. If you are a senator from one
(11:48):
of the territories, you are up for reelection every three years.
Super confusing. Not sure why we can't just make the
whole country the same, but that's for another time. And
he looks like he's doubled that vote kind of just
in the last three years. So a lot of focus there,
a lot of focus for what that means for Katie Gallagher,
who's also an act senator from the Labor Party, and
(12:10):
that'll certainly be a focus in the days and weeks
to come.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Just two other results that I think are worth mentioning
from the Senate. It looks like Pauline Hanson's One Nation
has picked up votes and there has been a swing
towards her across the country in the Senate, which I
think is worth mentioning.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Yeah, and important to note that Pauline Hanson herself wasn't
up for reelection at this election, but yeah, as you said,
we have seen a swing towards her party.
Speaker 1 (12:34):
We mentioned on the podcast that her daughter was running
in Tasmania. We don't know yet if she has won
that seat, but definitely there has been a swing towards
One Nation in the Senate. And then also I think
worth mentioning that the trumpet of Patriots. I'm sure you
know there are so many people listening who probably received
text from them throughout the campaign. They have not won
any seat in either the House of Representatives or in
(12:56):
the Senate.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
Yeah, I know a lot of people were wondering, as
you say even how much they were communicated with Billy
just before we end. We had a lot of to
and fro with our audience over the weekend, which was
amazing over on Instagram stories, and one of the most
recurring questions we got asked was when are all of
the things that Labor promised actually going to happen? And
(13:18):
I think that it's an important thing to just really
quickly discuss and explain because some of it will need
to go through parliament. A lot of it will need
to go through parliament, so the government when Parliament is formed,
they will need to introduce a legislation and then they'll
need to pass it through both houses of Parliament. So
it's not like we can wake up tomorrow and all
(13:39):
of the things that Labour promised happen. The reality also
is that sometimes political parties promise things during elections that
they don't fulfill. So that's our role as journalists to
hold them to account and to keep an eye on
what the election commitments were and what actually happens during
the term of parliament.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
And you can bet that we'll be knocking on their
doors for into view as this term goes on.
Speaker 2 (14:01):
So Billy just to end. Now what happens from here?
Let's start first with the Liberal Party. What happens for
them from here?
Speaker 1 (14:09):
Yeah, so, because Peter Dudden lost his seat, they definitely
now need to find a new leader, and that will
look like the MPs that did win their seats. They
will then do a vote as to who their new
leader will be. In terms of who the front runners
will be, Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor looks like a front runner,
and then also the current Deputy Liberal Leader Susan Lee,
(14:31):
will also likely be in the running. But I think
what's interesting is that over the past two elections the
Liberal Party has lost so many of their key members.
I'm also thinking of Josh Fredenberg, who lost his seat
at the twenty twenty two election, who at the time
looked like he would definitely be the next Liberal leader.
So I think it will be really interesting to see
(14:51):
who they choose as their next Liberal leader. And then
in terms of labor, obviously they have their leader in
Anthony Albanesi. I did hear yesterday Treasurer Jim Chalmer is
saying that he thinks that Anthony Albanesi will try for
a third term. So this is his second term and
Jim Chalmers said that he thinks that at the next election,
Anthony Albanesi will remain Labor leader and we'll try to
(15:14):
go for a third term in Australia. Sara, you might
be able to correct me. I don't think we have
any maximum limit on how long someone can be a
prime minister for No, we don't.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Yeah, we're different to the US in that way, but
we're not going to get ahead of ourselves. No, just
for an election. We're very tired, so let's not set
our sites for the next election.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
But I think it speaks to how confident Labor is
in obviously how decisive this victory was.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Yeah, No, super interesting, Billy, and we will make sure
that we are unpacking more results as they come through.
But thank you for joining us for that mammoth of
an election. We appreciate all the support that you have
given us and we couldn't do it without you, our amazing,
amazing audience. We'll be back again later today with the headlines,
(15:59):
but until have a great Monday. Bye.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda
Bungelung Calcottin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily Oz acknowledges
that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the
Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest
Rate island and nations. We pay our respects to the
first peoples of these countries, both past and present.