Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. Oh,
now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to the
Daily OS. It's Wednesday, the twentieth of August. I'm Billy FitzSimons.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
I'm Emma Gillespie, yours.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
President Donald Trump has met with both Russian leaders Vladimir
Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski in his latest attempt
to reach a peace deal in Ukraine. The meetings come
after three and a half years of war with no
major breakthrough. Trump discussed ending the conflict with both leaders separately,
though no concrete deal was reached. Today we are breaking
(00:45):
down what happened in these high stakes diplomatic meetings and
what comes next in efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
We'll get into all of that in today's deep dive.
But first a quick message from our sponsor, Billy. As
you said in your intro, this conflict has now been
running for three and a half years. It feels like
things have really escalated though since Donald Trump was reelected
he has pushed a lot. He has pushed really heavily
(01:14):
to broker a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. But let's start
with the context. Let's take it back to twenty twenty two.
What do we need to know?
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, so it was in feb twenty twenty two when
Russia invaded Ukraine, and so, like you said, it's been
nearly three and a half years, nearly four years since
this conflict began. Now in terms of the impact this
has had. In terms of the civilian impact, neither country
actually publishes official death tolls, but the United Nations has
(01:45):
estimated that at least thirteen eight hundred civilians have been
killed in Ukraine since the war broke out. We also
know that more than five point six million people have
fled Ukraine since Russia first invaded. That's also according to
UN data.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
I didn't realize that figure was so high, five point
six million.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Yeah, And I remember when it first happened, the images
and the videos of you know, the roads being blocked
out with cars trying to flee the country. It was
quite stark imagery. Now, the death toll of troops is
much larger. The latest estimates from during this year is
that nearly one million Russian troops have been killed or wounded,
(02:27):
and about four hundred thousand Ukrainian troops have also been
killed or injured. That is a huge impact on the troops. Yeah,
and those estimates are from the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington. Again, those are just estimates because
we don't know the official toll.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Right, Can you remind us why Russia invaded Ukraine in
the first place. I'm sure it is an extremely complicated answer,
but how would you explain it?
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Yeah? I think it's also important context because it kind
of explains why the US is now involved in the talks. So,
like you said, it's obviously complicated. There is a lot
of history there. Ukraine is one of several countries in
Eastern Europe that was part of the Soviet Union before
it collapsed in the nineteen nineties, So I think that
(03:16):
just gives you some context also because since then there
have been territorial disputes between Russia and Ukraine. Now, when
Putin declared what he called Russia's Special Military Operation, that's
what he called it in twenty twenty two in Ukraine,
he spoke a lot about guaranteeing Russia's security. So this
(03:38):
is basically about Russia saying that they feel like they
are under threat from specifically Western forces, and a big
part of this all centers around Russia's concerns about the
growing power of NATOP, which stands for the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
We hear a lot about NATO, especially in the context
of this conflict. Yes, what is it though.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
Yes, good question, a fundamental question. So NATO is a
military alliance of thirty two European and Northern American countries.
Now that figure of thirty two has grown in recent decades,
so it wasn't always that large, and a key part
of it is that they're founding treaty states. An attack
(04:24):
against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies,
and that is probably the most important feature of the
NATO alliance because it binds members to go to war
on each other's behalf. So essentially, if there is an
attack on one NATO country, then that alliance sees it
(04:44):
as an attack on all NATO countries and will go
in to defend for that country that has been under
ATTACKEP And like I said, it has expanded. That number
of thirty two allies has expanded since it first began,
and now in includes several countries in Eastern Europe which
are closer geographically to Russia and Russia is of course
(05:08):
not part of NATO.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Yeah. We have seen some European countries, even the likes
of Switzerland joining NATO. Switzerland are famously kind of a
political natural zone, Yeah, shoring up their defenses and security
pacts because of the threat of Russia given its ongoing
conflict in Ukraine.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Exactly. And so to bring this back to Ukraine, Ukraine
does want to be part of NATO, but is not.
And Russia sees Ukraine becoming part of NATO as a
threat because it would mean that most of its neighboring
countries are all part of this military alliance. So one
of Putin's key demands when it comes to this peace
(05:52):
steal that we're talking about, is a guarantee that Ukraine
never joins NATO.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Okay, got it. And so NATO just recap it's this
military alliance between European countries and the US. Obviously, the
US is one of the biggest forces in NATO. Is
that why it's so involved in these peace talks?
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Yeah, exactly. And it was also something that US President
Donald Trump campaigned on before the election last year. He
famously said that he would be able to broker a
peace deal within twenty four hours of becoming president. Now,
obviously that hasn't happened, but Trump has now met with
both Putin and Zelensky as he continues his attempt at
(06:35):
trying to reach a peace deal. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
I think it's really important to highlight how he campaigned
on this issue, because Joe Biden, as the former president
of the US, certainly showed really strong support for Ukraine.
He had regular meetings with Zelenski, he was promoting regular
funding to support Ukraine, but he didn't seem to have
(06:58):
this kind of hardline stand on intervening to force an
end to this war. But Trump really campaigned for election
on this idea that he is a master negotiator, that
he can bring global powers to the table to resolve
these kinds of conflicts, not just in Ukraine but all
over the world. Yeah, so the Putin Trump meeting came first. Yes,
(07:21):
what do we need to know about that one?
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Yeah, so this was on Saturday morning, Australia time. We
woke up to it on Saturday, And yeah, it was
the pair's first meeting since Trump had returned to the
White House. So Putin and Trump's first meeting since Donald
Trump had become president. For the second time. In terms
of what came out of it, essentially not a lot.
(07:44):
There was no agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
After the meeting, Trump told report is we didn't get there,
but we have a very good chance of getting there.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
And just to clarify, there was no representatives from uk
in that meeting. No.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
But then what Trump said is that he was meeting
with Zelenski in the coming days, which we will get
to because that has now happened. He did say that
there were some agreements from that meeting with Putin, but
they didn't specify exactly what those agreements were. He's a
little bit more of that press conference which was held
alongside Putin. There were many many points that we agreed
(08:26):
on most of them, I would say, a couple of
big ones that we haven't quite got there, but we've
made some headway. So there's no deal until there's a deal.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Now.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
After those statements were read out, they actually didn't answer
any questions from journalists that were at that press conference.
That is quite unusual for Trump when he is meeting
with other world leaders. Usually they have done those press
conferences in the Oval Office. But this was clearly very different.
And it was a lot more orchestrated, I would say,
(09:00):
I thought this line explained the result of the meeting well.
From the New York Times, they reported it would be
hard to imagine an event that could have gone better
from the point of view of the Russian leader, who
made no public commitment to stop his assault on Ukraine
and yet was treated as a valued friend.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Very interesting, And I suppose That's been the criticism of
a lot of Donald Trump's handling of this conflict, is
that he's treating perhaps Putin and Zelensky as equals in
this conversation, whereas the broader global community view is that
Russia has invaded Ukraine, Ukraine needs the world's support, and
we shouldn't be pandering to Putin.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Yeah, And I think that's important to point out that
there has been criticism of this meeting. One Democrat politician,
Senator Chris Murphy said the photo op in and of
itself essentially legitimizes war crimes, telegraphs to evil men around
the world that they can get away with murdering civilians
and still get a photo op with the President of
(10:02):
the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So that is the perspective of a politician obviously on
the opposing side of politics as Trump, but yet important
to point out that there has been criticism.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
So some very strong language. That meeting in Alaska between
Trump and Putin was Saturday morning for us here in Australia,
and then on Tuesday morning we woke up to the
meeting of Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelensky and Trump having wrapped up.
It's not the first time that they've met in recent months, though,
(10:34):
is that there is a particular viral moment that stands out.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Yeah, so Trump hosted Zelenski literally in his first month
of being in office. That was earlier this year in
feb And yeah, it was quite a frosty meeting. Just
to remind us of exactly what happened, here's a snippet
of an exchange between Vice President JD. Vance Trump and
Zelenski back in feb this year.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Have you said thank you once a lot of times? No,
you said you went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the
opposition in October.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Offer some words of appreciation for the United States of
America and the president who's trying to save your country.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Plas you're saying that, if you will speak very loudly
about the war.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
You're not speaking loudly. You're not speaking loudly. Your country
is in big trouble. No, No, you've done a lot
of talking. Your country is in big trouble. I know
you're not winning. You're not winning this, okay.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
So things were frosty, to say the least, tensions were high.
It didn't really seem like in that moment, just a
few months later we'd be talking about another Zelenski Trump
meeting in the Oval Office. So how did the latest
one go?
Speaker 1 (11:51):
This one had a very different dynamic. There were none
of those really tense exchanges. I think the tone of
it was quite civil, to be honest. Probably the biggest
thing that came from the meeting was the news that
there could now be a meeting between Putin and Zelenski
as well as Trump. So Trump said via social media
(12:13):
after at the conclusion of the meetings, I called President
Putin and began the arrangements for meeting at a location
to be determined between President Putin and President Zelenski.
Speaker 2 (12:24):
So a meeting of Putin and Zelenski feels like a
pretty big deal. What will be the key points of
those negotiations? How would this even work.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Yeah, I don't want to simplify this too much, but
you know, for the purposes of a ten minute podcast,
we often have to a lot of this is about territory.
It all comes down to territory and the key questions
of what is Russian territory and what is Ukrainian territory.
And one of the key questions that needs to be
answered is would Ukraine be willing to give up some
(12:59):
territory in the pursuit of peace or will they stand
their ground and try to come to a peace agreement
another way? But again another question is is that even possible?
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Yeah, And this is a sticking point really for Zelensky
that we've heard over and over over the last three
and a half years or so, is that Ukraine is
not going to see its territory to Russia exact and
Trump kind of I suppose nudging Zelensky to be a
bit more compromising.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah, I think Trump is saying that both of you
are going to need to make compromises here. Another key
part of this is NATO. So to bring it back
to what we were talking about before, Yeah, Putin wants
a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, And I
think it's also important to point out that before Trump's
meeting with Zelenski, Trump posted two social media saying no
(13:50):
going into NATO by Ukraine. So I shared the context
of that before. But Zolenski has wanted help from NATO
troops in Ukraine, which has responded to in a very
strong way. Even on Monday, Russia's Foreign ministry said, we
reaffirm a repeatedly stated position of categorical rejection of any
(14:12):
scenarios involving the presence of a military contingent from NATO
countries in Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Where is NATO at in terms of Ukrainian membership? I
know a few years ago the conversation was about let's
get this conflict resolved and then we can talk about
Ukraine joining. Has that changed?
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Well, NATO's position, I think is a long term one.
So there's an answer for right now, and then there's
a long term answer. Like I just said, Trump posted
to social media literally this week, no going into NATO
by Ukraine. So I think we can pretty safely say
that there is no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO right now.
(14:55):
But if I go onto NATO's website, there is a
question that says, will you Ukraine join NATO, and their
answer to that is yes, and they go into this
two thousand and eight agreement that I won't get into
the details of, but basically, in two thousand and eight
there was an agreement that Ukraine would become part of NATO,
(15:15):
and that still stands today as a long term goal.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Billy, how likely is a face to face meeting between
Putin and Zelenski, Well, the.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Leaders haven't actually spoken in person since before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Their last formal meeting was in twenty nineteen, when Zelenski
and Putin met in Paris, and the aim of those
talks was to try and de escalate tensions between Ukrainian
forces and pro Russian separatists in Ukraine. Now, that was
(15:46):
the beginning of a series of negotiations between officials from
the two countries, but evidently they broke down when Russia
launched its invasion in twenty twenty two. So we really
don't have much to go by in terms of the
history of their relationship and how negotiations between them go,
except for clearly very badly given the situation that we
(16:09):
are in. If they do end up getting together in
person under Trump's plan, it will be a very historic
moment regardless of the outcome.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Yeah, fascinating and of course we will keep an eye
on that and bring you all the latest updates over
on the Daily Os Instagram feed as we learn more
about this developing story. Billy, thank you so much for
explaining it to us. Thank you, and thank you for
listening to today's episode. We will be back later on
this afternoon with your evening news headlines, but until then,
have a great day.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Aarunda
Bungelung Caalcultin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily Os acknowledges
that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the
Gatighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres
Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the
first peoples of these countries, both past and present.