Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Wonder up.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Guys, how are you welcome into a Sunday morning episode
of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Pereltz.
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt following, Well, an unfortunate day. We
could have had really a three and two day. We
probably still would have been down a little bit because
(00:34):
of the A and M. We laid the mis one
twenty five and they lost outright one seventy nine Alabama
and Kentucky. That's what that fell. One seventy nine, We
almost got there with that, and then one fifty two
that's what the Auburn and the Georgia game fell. That
bet coming from the Discord channel chat that we did,
(00:56):
but live bets on both of those games.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
If you were with.
Speaker 2 (00:59):
Us for the live stream or if you're on the
Discord channel, I should say I told you to take
a under one eighty eight and a half for Alabama
Kentucky in an over one twenty six and a half
for Auburn and Georgia or Alabama Kentucky in Auburn and Georgia.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
So I came in with live vets.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
They cashed on that we had I went five and
four overall on the day. I was slightly up on
the day, but officially we're down one point four or
five units. But if you were with us there, we
talked about Duke. Duke came in, talked about Vandy. Vandy
came in, those plays cashed. It was a you know,
Saint Mary's won the game, outright, Saint Mary's in Auburn, Georgia.
(01:44):
Those were the two bets that we added to the card.
Arkansas wins outright, We got that Alabama and Kentucky could
have gone over, should have gone over, fell one seventy nine.
And then Texa, A and M money line did not
as Tennessee really played well. Shot the lights out. To me,
my gosh, it was just come guys, guy going for
thirty and then hitting a ton of threes. Tennessee shot
(02:05):
forty eight percent from behind three point line. Not typical
for a Tennessee team shooting that. The Rock and A
and M is just back to back losses for them,
and I don't like the way they're playing at all
for Buzz Williams and what they're doing here heading.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
Towards the SEC tournament.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
So losing day yesterday, losing day day before, So we
need to end the week strong.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Here. We need to get ourselves a winning day.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
I've got two college basketball bets and i have two
NBA player props. I'm going to show you what you
guys can do with the prop bet cheat sheet and
the prop bet analyzer. You're gonna have to bear with
me if you're listening to the podcast these are. This
is one of the podcasts where you might want to
go to YouTube and watch this so you can look
at the graphics and get a.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Better idea as to what I'm talking about.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
But before we do that, if you guys haven't gone
and downloading the Betting Pros app yet, I would hunt
undred percent go and do so. Well.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Why if you.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Double the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android
with Sportsbook Sync, you can automatically track your bets across
all major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily monitor your bet
performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,
and parlays. Create custom betting systems. More on that in
a second. To find winning trends and profitable opportunities, get
(03:26):
a free trial of Betting Pros Premium by download the
app at bettingpros dot com slash apps and activating your
free trial on the upgrade screen. Once again, that's Bettingpros
dot Com slash apps. A couple things I learned about
the app which is pretty interesting. So in the current
(03:48):
iteration of our house rules of the terms of service,
they call it, your data will not be sold.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Your data will not be sold.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Information on your sportsbook sinc Will not be then told
to the sports books. It's on your phone, it's your data,
it's your information. I think that needs to be highlighted
and talked about more. I learned that when everybody was
here for Betting Pros. Because there are some apps that
sink and do the sportsbook sink and then take that
(04:23):
data and use it for other reasons.
Speaker 1 (04:25):
We do not do that. It's a very big deal.
It's a very big deal to me.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
It's a very big deal to betters that that information
does not make its way back to the books. What
you bet, when you bet, how you bet, all those
things should be yours and yours alone. If you use
the sportsbook sink in the Betting Pros app to track
your own bets to make yourself a better better you
should not have to worry about that information when you
(04:50):
get better to then fall into.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
The hands of someone else. Very cool.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Download the betting pros app and if you guys, go
and activate the premium side. What I'm gonna show you
here are premium bets. The prop bet cheat sheet is
something that is available partially for free, and then there
are some extra data points if you are user or
user on the premium side. One of the premium features
(05:16):
is the ability to highlight positive EV expected value of
a bet the expected value of a play. Not to
get into that wonky, but basically you're looking at the
number versus the projection and whether or not there is
expected value there with the play.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
People talking about value.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Okay, I'm gonna show you two prop bets that I
found on the prop bet cheat sheet that are among
the most are the highest expected value EV for today
in the NBA. One is involving Drew Holliday. Another is
involving Jimmy Butler, Warriors and the Celtics. So let's say
(06:01):
you find this information on the prop betcheat sheet. You
then can put on the far right hand side on desktop,
same thing as a button you can press on the app.
That's the prop bet analyzer. When the prop bet analyzer
pops up, you're going to see these things on your screen. One,
(06:22):
you see the Drew Holiday being active, which is always important,
right sometimes says DTD to be determined day to day?
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Is he playing yes or no? Important?
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Drew Holliy's playing today against the next You see all
of these different prop bets, points, assists, rebounds.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
These are the best odds.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
That are available at the sportsbooks that betting pros is
synced in with, which is most of them. Then it's
the prop best analysis where if you look at how
many times over the last five, ten and fifteen games
has this prop Drew Holliday points eight and a half
(07:04):
is his prop bet for points today? How many times
has it gone over If you look at the latest five,
it's not that good until you get to the projection
and the bet cheat sheet is projecting over eight and
a half points. The prop bet analysis comes in and
tells you that, well, right now, maybe not.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
But why would it think that? You got to dig
a little deeper.
Speaker 2 (07:27):
Then you go and realize that eight and a half
for Drew Holliday up against the New York Knicks, he's
been way over this. He's been going over into the
green of the last five six times. He's five and
one to the over for his points on his props.
(07:47):
So you see this information and it can help you say, Okay,
I like this. The prop bet cheat sheet likes the
over expected value on this is one of the most
the best expected value on this prop and the numbers
head to head when Drew Holliday plays the Knicks, including
(08:08):
earlier this year where he flew over eight and a
half points. Even though there are trends that you would say, well,
recently Drew Holliday hasn't been scoring all that much, but
you can see why the prop bet chee chet is projecting.
In the prop bet analysis, an analyzer is projecting over
eight and a half points for Drew Holliday. That's our
(08:29):
first bet for today, Drew Holliday of the Boston Celtics
against the Knicks over eight and a half points. Now,
what about unders. Let's talk about a second play. Let's
talk about Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler twenty and a half.
His point projection for the Warriors two games so far
(08:52):
at Houston, at Sacramento, this home against Dallas, Jimmy Butler
is expected to score less than twenty and a half points.
Look at the general trend of how Jiman Butler's played
going all the way back to the first of the
year January first, only two games where Jimmy Butler's gone
over twenty and a half points. The prop bet cheat sheet,
(09:16):
the prop bet Analysis Analyzer, and the trends all point
towards Jimmy Butler under twenty and a half points today
for the Golden State Warriors up against the Dallas Mavericks.
Both those bets we're jumping in with and we're taking
them here today for our first two plays on the day,
(09:37):
we're going to go under twenty and a half points
Jean Butler over eight and a half points for Drew Holliday. Again,
these are things you can find with a Betting Pros
Premium subscription on the app and on desktop. There's going
to be other times where I can walk us through
all this. But both these games on ABC New York
(10:02):
and Boston. It's a one o'clock Eastern time start, and
it's a three point thirty Eastern time start for Golden
State hosting Dallas. So you've got nationally televised games. Everyone's
gonna be able to watch this figure. It's a good
time to have two different prop bets in play. I'm
gonna bet a half unit point five to five and
point five eights to win a half a unit on
both these plays. Drew Holliday over eight and a half points,
(10:24):
Jimmy Jimmy Butler under twenty and a half points. Both
those prop bets are widely available. And I'm not even
getting wonky. Okay, I'm not even getting in the weeds here.
And I could get into the weeds here, but I'm
not going to. I can talk about points and rebounds
and assists. I could talk about just points and assists.
I can talk about rebounds and assists, I mean blocks,
three point shots, assists, rebounds. Okay, I'm not even going
(10:48):
I'm just going for this in the purpose of showing you, guys,
what the prop bet cheat cheet can do combined with
the prop bet analyzer, just to give you an idea
of what the application when you are a betting pros
premium subscriber, what that can look like. Okay, if you
like doing research, if you like looking at trends, if
you like looking at data, all things I like to do.
(11:09):
You guys know me as a trend better. Okay, I
get information, look at trends, look at numbers, look at prices,
make bets.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
That's how I bet.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Okay, everyone has their own system, everyone has their own process.
But when it comes to NBA Player Props, I'm often
looking at these data points and pulling bets from the
prop bet cheat sheet and from the prop bet analyzer
that's available. It's a lot of information. It's overwhelming, not
gonna lie. When you look at it, you're like, wow,
(11:42):
that's a lot. But when you start to look at
the reasons why the bet is being targeted, why it's
being pulled out, the expected value combined with the price,
combined with the projection and the trends, it's all really good. Okay,
we'll get to systems later. Maybe we'll do it. I'll
call it Sunday sessions. Maybe every Sunday we'll have a
(12:04):
Sunday session and show you guys, different things that are
happening and different things that are going into how you
can make bets. We'll do systems later, but that is
how I'm betting NBA Player props and how you can too.
Download the Betting Pros app, check out the free trial
on the application. Make your own wagers, make your own assessments,
(12:24):
find your own value, and make plays off of it.
It could be quite profitable if you're doing the research
and doing the work. Two college basketball bets to get
to on the daily Juice card for today. Let's start
with Indiana, who is hosting Perdue. It is a four
point loss according to kempom. The numbers was four, now
(12:45):
it's three and a half. Why well, these teams played
at Purdue on the thirty first of January in eighty
one seventy six win for Perdue at home. This Indiana
team is playing much better now. I know you can say,
Matt they just lost to Ucla. They pushed Ucla and
(13:06):
they beat Michigan State. I'm not gonna jump up it
down and say Indiana is gonna come here and win
this game outright, but they very well might. Purdue's eleven
and five ats in the Big Ten. Indiana is nine
and six. But recently three straight losses for Purdue, they
haven't looked good. They lost to Michigan State by nine,
(13:27):
didn't cover, lost to Wisconsin by ten, didn't cover. They
were six point favorites in that game and against Michigan.
They were catching three and they lost by two. They
did cover that game, but they didn't win. Three straight
losses for Purdue. On the flip side, Indiana has covered
two of the last three games, lost Ucla at home.
(13:49):
In their last game catching two, lost by four Michigan State.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
They lost by four.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
They covered as eleven and a half point dogs on
the road, and then they lost by three at home
to Michigan catching three and a half, the same number
they're catching right now, which is three and a half.
I don't want three. I want three and a half, Okay,
that's important to me. I want over one possession for
Indiana here at home. They are fourteen and twelve this
(14:16):
year ATS wise, nine and six in the Big Ten.
Like I said, nine and six at home ATS wise.
Perdue is seven and six against the number on the
road this year, as I mentioned, they're very good eleven
and five in the Big Ten. But for this one,
I got a reeling Purdue team. I got a home
dog catching three and a half. Indiana plus three and
(14:38):
a half for one point one units, and finally USC
at Rutgers. You might go, Matt, wow, I can I
betting any Big East games? Hold on a second, but
the biggest schedule is tremendous. But no, I'm not going
to officially bet any Big East games here today. Normally
I would on a Sunday, but I'll explain here in
(14:58):
just one second. I'm going to take a home Rutgers
team laying three and a half to USC. Rutgers is
seven and seven ats this year, eight and seven and
one in the Big Ten. USC is seven and eight ats,
eleven and fifteen overall, and four and five on the road.
And they're coming off of a seventeen point road loss
to Maryland. This is the second game of the road
(15:21):
trip for them, losing at Maryland badly. Now they're against Rutgers,
coming off of a four point win at Washington. They
were catching two and a half. Rutgers won by four.
It snapped a three game losing streak for Rutgers. They
got to get after it if they want to make
an a type of noise coming up in March seven
(15:41):
and seven. As I mentioned, ats at home here for
Rutgers and at home. Look, Rutgers is nine and five
ats at home this year. USC is three and six
on the road. They're one in four straight up over
their last five basketball games. They're six and nine in conference.
(16:03):
Rutgers is six and ten. Rutgers needs this game US
he does two, but I'm gonna lay the points here
with Rutgers. It's a one point win for Rutgers. According
to Kempom, I'm gonna lay the three and a half
just because I don't like USC. I'm gonna take that
overtime victory over Washington. Give this team some bouncing their
(16:24):
step to come back home to play play USC because
they've got Michigan next on the road and then Purdue
on the road as well, two very tough road games
up ahead for Rutgers. They got to win this game,
almost a must win for them here today for the
Scarlet Knights. I'll lay the three and a half Rutgers
(16:44):
mins three and a half for one point one units.
Speaker 1 (16:48):
All right, so plays for today.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Drew Holliday over eight and a half points better to
win a half a unit, Jimmy Butler under twenty and
a half points, bet to win a half a unit
and a plus three and a half at home against
Purdue for one point one units, and Rutgers laying three
and a half points for one point one units at
home against usc for the Big East plays. So Ukon's
(17:13):
at Saint John's first game of the day. I don't
know what to do about this. I mean, I think
Saint John's is the play. They're fourteen and two in conference.
I mean, Yukon had to rally to beat Villanova on
the road. They were I mean at home rather they
should have. They were down by double digits in the
first half against Villanova. They rallied, doing the game by seven,
(17:34):
they didn't cover. They lost in overtime to Seaton Hall.
So like, my gut says, go ahead and take the
red storm here. But Yukon has a way of just
doing this when they're playing teams the numbers four and
a half, where they just you know, rise up and
play really well or shoot the basketball really well. I
would I mean Saint john'ss a lean to lean on
(17:54):
four and a half to Saint John's. But I don't
know if that's going to get me to the window
to bet the game. The Creighton Blue Jays, I mean,
what's up with Ryan Cockbrunner if he doesn't play or
he isn't as effective. I mean, they're taking on Georgetown,
the team that beat them, that started this whole streak.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
I mean they were.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
They lost by twenty four points at Georgetown. That's what
kickstarted the win streak for the Creyton Blue Jays. Basically,
you know, they won two games in a row after that.
They lost eighty one fifty seven at Georgetown. Then they
beat Villanova, they beat Saint John's, they lost to Marquette,
and then they won nine straight games. They've lost back
to back games to Yukon in Saint John's, They've got
(18:36):
Georgetown to Paul Xavier at Seton Hall in Butler. There
really is no reason why the Creighton Blue Jays can't
run the table here. Win this game at home. The
game's on Peacock. They're eleven and four, run the table,
don't lose again, and hope that Saint John's, who has
(18:56):
a much more difficult schedule than they do, stumbles. Saint
John's got a game, like I mentioned against Yukon today
which could be tough for them. They're at Butler, they're
home for Seaton Hall, and they're at Marquette. Hard to
see Seaton Hall. Sorry, Saint John's losing two games, but
they could. I mean, it's not nuts that Jays haven't
played in a week. Let's see what they do here today.
(19:19):
I mean it's a big number. I don't it's a
ten point win according to kempom. The numbers eleven and
a half numbers right, Jay's win, But I don't think
I can lay it, So not playing any.
Speaker 1 (19:31):
Big East games. That's why we're not touching the Big East.
All right. My name is Matt Paroltz.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
You guys can follow me across all of my socials
at Sports Talk Matt every single morning where every guys
get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
It is the Daily Juice