December 14, 2024 • 11 mins
It's time for Week 15 of the NFL and host Matt Perrault is loading up with several bets for today's action. Find out the plays on the Sunday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Draftkings. DRAFTKINGS PICK6: Download the NEW DraftKings Pick6 app NOW and use code JUICE. That’s code JUICE for new Pick6 customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits GUARANTEED.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Lots of guys. How are you welcome into a Sunday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Peralt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sportstock. Matt in this podcast being brought
to you by your friends at DraftKings. I am actually
headed to a DraftKings NBA Cup party tonight here in
Las Vegas, so I'm taping this before the Creighton Blue
Jay game is over against Alabama. Actually that game hasn't
(00:37):
even tipped off yet, but what we do know is
that we've gone one in one. Army Navy flew over,
Navy almost got there by themselves, and then UCLA Arizona
just didn't score for the last nine minutes of that game.
They didn't score at all. I mean, it was sort
of pacing towards the under, but that obviously killed the
over one forty seven bets, so that missed, and now
(00:59):
we're left with the Cryton blame on the road at
Alabama for us to have a winning day or losing day.
So the day hinges on that which I don't know,
and I won't know till later on tonight, whether we
had a winning day or we had a losing day today. However,
live stream Terrelle and I have you for an hour
or so starting at nine o'clock am Pacific noon Eastern,
(01:20):
taking you up to kick off of the early games
here today on the Betting Pros Week fifteen live stream.
Hope to see all you guys there on the Betting
Pros YouTube channel. Join us. We'll go through every single
game on Sunday, give you picks, plays and thoughts and
prop bets and more. All coming at you on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel for the week fifteen live stream
with myself and myself Andrelle Furman coming at you guys
(01:42):
here on a Sunday. All right, So for today, I've
got one side, two totals, and one teaser. I don't
know how heavy I'll be in the prop market, I
gotta be honest, but I may have a long teaser.
This is a very teaserrific Sunday, so I'll probably have
only two prop bets and I'll add an official Wong
(02:05):
teaser during the live stream coming up here today, so
tune in for that. It's late late in the year,
teachers could be somewhat profitable, so we're going to jump
in on jumping with that. So let's grab a hold
of five and a half six units today. It's a
little heavier than I like to get into, but it's
(02:27):
one of our last regular season Sundays, so let's have
some fun with it. Before we do that, let's tell
you about our friends at DraftKings and the Pick six
new players. You play five dollars, you get fifty dollars instantly,
and Pick six credits with the promo code Juice at
sign up gambling problem called one and hundred. Gambler help
is available for a problem gambling called eight eight eight
seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG
(02:49):
dot org in Connecticut eighteen plus and most eligible jurisdictions,
but other age and eligibility restrictions may apply. Ballot only
at jurisdictions where Draft Kings Pick six operates. Pick six
not available everywhere, including not limited to New York and California, Ontario,
void where prohibited four terms. Go to picksigs dot DraftKings
dot com slash promos. All right, let's start with the
(03:09):
bucks on the road at the La Chargers. This is
an interesting situation to see how this is all going
to go down because Baker Mayfield is tremendous as a dog,
tremendous with the Bucks. He's been way better with the Bucks.
(03:30):
He's twenty and twelve ats. That's only behind Bonis and
Jared Goff with their current teams against the number Bonix
on the road since the LASTI start of last year,
Bonix is twelve and four ats on the road. All
with the Bucks, he's sixteen and oh if you were
teasing this, by the way, in a six point teaser,
so maybe you want to tease it. Tease him up
(03:51):
plus three to plus nine high Wong teaser. Okay, this
thing goes below three. Guess what we're doing. This is
one of the Wong teaser options for the Bucks and
the Chargers in Bakers three of the last four games
on the road against the spread, he scored more than
twenty points. And he's way better on the road than
(04:12):
he's at home. Just the numbers just are absolutely obvious
that Baker Mayfield plays better on the road. For whatever reason.
They beat Carolina by three. That didn't cover in that game,
but they won. They beat the Giants by twenty three,
laying six. They covered against the KSE Chiefs. They beat
New Orleans by twenty four in covered. They didn't cover
(04:32):
against Atlanta. That was the third of October. It's a
long time ago. Against Detroit, they went to Detroit and
beat them. The only team to do that went to
the Lions and beat them in week two. We were
on them in that game. Baker Mayfield and the Bucks
that are eight and five overall with their six and
three ats against the NFC, four and two on the
road this year, but they're hot away from home now.
(04:54):
The Chargers are nine and four against the number this season.
They're four and two against the number at home, seven
and three over your last ten games. Last two games
on the road, they cover them both against Atlanta and
against Kansas City. But I can't get away from this
trend with Baker Mayfield. I just I like Baker a lot.
I mean Baker as a member of the Bucks. When
(05:14):
he's facing defenses that are allowing seventeen points or less,
he's three and oh against the spread. The three point
dogs give me the three. This number probably goes below three,
and when it does, it's a long teaser option and
we'll go from two and a half up to eight
and a half. This is a very interesting leg. We'll
have probably two bets on this game with Baker Mayfield
(05:35):
and the Bucks, but for this one, it's plus three
Tampa plus three for one point one units. Bet number two.
Let's go to Buffalo and Detroit. Everyone's thinking points points, points,
points points right. Well, when the line is this high
and it's fifty four and a half, it's a point
below the Bills and Cheeps back in October of twenty two,
(05:59):
and that was a fifty five and a half between
those two teams. Since two thousand and nine, when totals
are approaching fifty five, is is fifty four and a half.
The under is twenty three and ten. What am I
doing with this game? I'm going under? I don't this
is we may go right up against it. I mean
we're talking about twenty four. We're talking about like, you know,
(06:21):
right up the twenty eight to twenty four type right
like right there, fifty two fifty three. But at fifty
four and a half, this is just basically just a
system play the highest total on the board, two teams
playing for you know, they're calling it a preview with
the Super Bowl, but who knows, maybe it is, maybe
it isn't. The Bills with Josh Allen have not been
(06:46):
great against the number as a dog. In fact, Josh
Allen has been not good at all. When the bills
are off of a loss and Josh Allen's a dog,
He's five and six straight up and five and six
against the number. They're off of a loss and they're
a dog here on the road against Detroit, back to
back road games as well. Not great for Josh Allen.
(07:08):
He's been great against the NFC, but lost to the
Rams last week. He's never lost consecutive games outright to
NFC opponents, so the Rams and now here are the Lions.
We'll see if that continues. But he's seventeen to twelve
and one against the number here against the NFC. Let's
see what they look like here today. But I think
this number is too high. We'll go under under fifty
(07:29):
four and a half for the Bills and the Lions
more in that game. In a second to Sunday Night,
we go Green Bay on the road favored against Geno
Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Sunday Night unders. Since in
twenty twenty two, thirty nine and nineteen to the under,
that's nearly seventy percent of the time to the under
(07:50):
the regular season thirty six and fourteen. That includes a
ridiculous mark where you look at these teams ten and
four to the under this season, ten and four we
bet at last week with the Niners. We're betting it
this week for the Green Bay Packers. In the Seattle Seahawks,
we're going under. These teams are fighting for position, they're
(08:12):
both fighting in their divisions. They're trying to make some
nudes of noise. Matt Lafleur is fourteen and eleven with
extra prep time against the number over the last twenty years.
That's the fourth best mark of coaches, ninety nine of
them in the NFL. When the floor is at home,
he's not eleven and four, but on the road just
three and seven ATS. It's not great. Three and seven ATS.
(08:35):
The NFC North is now twenty ninety nine straight up
against other division. That's incredible. That's the second best mark
for the full full season by any division since the
nineteen nineties. Nineteen ninety the twenty thirteen NFC West were
the best in that same timeframe. Packers can win this game,
but I think this is a dead under game. I
(08:56):
think this is going to be low scoring. I think
defenses rule. Gino. Smith has not played great straight up
at night games, but nine and five ats with Seattle
and the Jets been an underdog a lot in primetime.
He's two and ten straight up as a primetime underdog.
That's not great, but keep the game close. Lose by three,
he wouldn't cover, but under most likely comes in. We're
(09:19):
gonna play the under here in this game between these
two teams are going under forty six, So it's Bucks
plus three, Buffalo Detroit under fifty four and a half,
Green Bay in Seattle under forty six, and the teaser.
I'm taking both dogs in both unders under in dogs
Green Bay against the Lions tease up to plus eight
(09:39):
and a half and Seattle at home tease from two
and a half up to eight and a half. We're
gonna cross three, We're gonna cross seven. We're gonna create
our own long teaser here. Even though the Buffalo Detroit
game is not qualified because the total is fifty four
and a half, it doesn't qualify forty nine and lower.
That's what qualifies for a long teaser. But I'm gonna
pull the bills up because I think that's a back
(10:00):
and forth battle that's a three to four point win
for either Buffalo or Detroit. I think either side of
a teaser here will come. In Seattle, I think they'll
stay close. In fact, I think they'll win the game
outright against green Bay. They're desperate, they've got to keep pace.
They can't be They're in a dogfight. Green Bay most
likely is gonna win a wild card, if not win
the division. But Detroit's gonna be tough for them to catch.
So I think green Bay's got a little less urgency
(10:21):
and they're on the road against Seattle in primetime, and
that twelfth man I think is a big factor in
this game for the Seahawks. So I'm gonna to go
Bills plus eight and a half Seattle plus eight and
a half for a one point two unit teaser. All right,
So a couple of player props in a long teaser.
We'll come at you guys coming up on the live
stream starting at New n Eastern time, nine Pacific with
myself and Terrell Furman. I'm the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
(10:44):
Hope see all you guys there as we'll break down
these games. But once again, Bucks plus three Buffalo Detroit
under fifty four and a half, green Bay Seattle under
forty six, and the teaser is Bills Seattle, both at
plus eight and a half for one point two units.
My name is Matt Parolf because all socials at Sports
Talk Matt every morning. It is the daily news podcast
(11:04):
presented by DraftKings.
Lots of guys. How are you welcome into a Sunday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Peralt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sportstock. Matt in this podcast being brought
to you by your friends at DraftKings. I am actually
headed to a DraftKings NBA Cup party tonight here in
Las Vegas, so I'm taping this before the Creighton Blue
Jay game is over against Alabama. Actually that game hasn't
(00:37):
even tipped off yet, but what we do know is
that we've gone one in one. Army Navy flew over,
Navy almost got there by themselves, and then UCLA Arizona
just didn't score for the last nine minutes of that game.
They didn't score at all. I mean, it was sort
of pacing towards the under, but that obviously killed the
over one forty seven bets, so that missed, and now
(00:59):
we're left with the Cryton blame on the road at
Alabama for us to have a winning day or losing day.
So the day hinges on that which I don't know,
and I won't know till later on tonight, whether we
had a winning day or we had a losing day today. However,
live stream Terrelle and I have you for an hour
or so starting at nine o'clock am Pacific noon Eastern,
(01:20):
taking you up to kick off of the early games
here today on the Betting Pros Week fifteen live stream.
Hope to see all you guys there on the Betting
Pros YouTube channel. Join us. We'll go through every single
game on Sunday, give you picks, plays and thoughts and
prop bets and more. All coming at you on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel for the week fifteen live stream
with myself and myself Andrelle Furman coming at you guys
(01:42):
here on a Sunday. All right, So for today, I've
got one side, two totals, and one teaser. I don't
know how heavy I'll be in the prop market, I
gotta be honest, but I may have a long teaser.
This is a very teaserrific Sunday, so I'll probably have
only two prop bets and I'll add an official Wong
(02:05):
teaser during the live stream coming up here today, so
tune in for that. It's late late in the year,
teachers could be somewhat profitable, so we're going to jump
in on jumping with that. So let's grab a hold
of five and a half six units today. It's a
little heavier than I like to get into, but it's
(02:27):
one of our last regular season Sundays, so let's have
some fun with it. Before we do that, let's tell
you about our friends at DraftKings and the Pick six
new players. You play five dollars, you get fifty dollars instantly,
and Pick six credits with the promo code Juice at
sign up gambling problem called one and hundred. Gambler help
is available for a problem gambling called eight eight eight
seven eight nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG
(02:49):
dot org in Connecticut eighteen plus and most eligible jurisdictions,
but other age and eligibility restrictions may apply. Ballot only
at jurisdictions where Draft Kings Pick six operates. Pick six
not available everywhere, including not limited to New York and California, Ontario,
void where prohibited four terms. Go to picksigs dot DraftKings
dot com slash promos. All right, let's start with the
(03:09):
bucks on the road at the La Chargers. This is
an interesting situation to see how this is all going
to go down because Baker Mayfield is tremendous as a dog,
tremendous with the Bucks. He's been way better with the Bucks.
(03:30):
He's twenty and twelve ats. That's only behind Bonis and
Jared Goff with their current teams against the number Bonix
on the road since the LASTI start of last year,
Bonix is twelve and four ats on the road. All
with the Bucks, he's sixteen and oh if you were
teasing this, by the way, in a six point teaser,
so maybe you want to tease it. Tease him up
(03:51):
plus three to plus nine high Wong teaser. Okay, this
thing goes below three. Guess what we're doing. This is
one of the Wong teaser options for the Bucks and
the Chargers in Bakers three of the last four games
on the road against the spread, he scored more than
twenty points. And he's way better on the road than
(04:12):
he's at home. Just the numbers just are absolutely obvious
that Baker Mayfield plays better on the road. For whatever reason.
They beat Carolina by three. That didn't cover in that game,
but they won. They beat the Giants by twenty three,
laying six. They covered against the KSE Chiefs. They beat
New Orleans by twenty four in covered. They didn't cover
(04:32):
against Atlanta. That was the third of October. It's a
long time ago. Against Detroit, they went to Detroit and
beat them. The only team to do that went to
the Lions and beat them in week two. We were
on them in that game. Baker Mayfield and the Bucks
that are eight and five overall with their six and
three ats against the NFC, four and two on the
road this year, but they're hot away from home now.
(04:54):
The Chargers are nine and four against the number this season.
They're four and two against the number at home, seven
and three over your last ten games. Last two games
on the road, they cover them both against Atlanta and
against Kansas City. But I can't get away from this
trend with Baker Mayfield. I just I like Baker a lot.
I mean Baker as a member of the Bucks. When
(05:14):
he's facing defenses that are allowing seventeen points or less,
he's three and oh against the spread. The three point
dogs give me the three. This number probably goes below three,
and when it does, it's a long teaser option and
we'll go from two and a half up to eight
and a half. This is a very interesting leg. We'll
have probably two bets on this game with Baker Mayfield
(05:35):
and the Bucks, but for this one, it's plus three
Tampa plus three for one point one units. Bet number two.
Let's go to Buffalo and Detroit. Everyone's thinking points points, points,
points points right. Well, when the line is this high
and it's fifty four and a half, it's a point
below the Bills and Cheeps back in October of twenty two,
(05:59):
and that was a fifty five and a half between
those two teams. Since two thousand and nine, when totals
are approaching fifty five, is is fifty four and a half.
The under is twenty three and ten. What am I
doing with this game? I'm going under? I don't this
is we may go right up against it. I mean
we're talking about twenty four. We're talking about like, you know,
(06:21):
right up the twenty eight to twenty four type right
like right there, fifty two fifty three. But at fifty
four and a half, this is just basically just a
system play the highest total on the board, two teams
playing for you know, they're calling it a preview with
the Super Bowl, but who knows, maybe it is, maybe
it isn't. The Bills with Josh Allen have not been
(06:46):
great against the number as a dog. In fact, Josh
Allen has been not good at all. When the bills
are off of a loss and Josh Allen's a dog,
He's five and six straight up and five and six
against the number. They're off of a loss and they're
a dog here on the road against Detroit, back to
back road games as well. Not great for Josh Allen.
(07:08):
He's been great against the NFC, but lost to the
Rams last week. He's never lost consecutive games outright to
NFC opponents, so the Rams and now here are the Lions.
We'll see if that continues. But he's seventeen to twelve
and one against the number here against the NFC. Let's
see what they look like here today. But I think
this number is too high. We'll go under under fifty
(07:29):
four and a half for the Bills and the Lions
more in that game. In a second to Sunday Night,
we go Green Bay on the road favored against Geno
Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. Sunday Night unders. Since in
twenty twenty two, thirty nine and nineteen to the under,
that's nearly seventy percent of the time to the under
(07:50):
the regular season thirty six and fourteen. That includes a
ridiculous mark where you look at these teams ten and
four to the under this season, ten and four we
bet at last week with the Niners. We're betting it
this week for the Green Bay Packers. In the Seattle Seahawks,
we're going under. These teams are fighting for position, they're
(08:12):
both fighting in their divisions. They're trying to make some
nudes of noise. Matt Lafleur is fourteen and eleven with
extra prep time against the number over the last twenty years.
That's the fourth best mark of coaches, ninety nine of
them in the NFL. When the floor is at home,
he's not eleven and four, but on the road just
three and seven ATS. It's not great. Three and seven ATS.
(08:35):
The NFC North is now twenty ninety nine straight up
against other division. That's incredible. That's the second best mark
for the full full season by any division since the
nineteen nineties. Nineteen ninety the twenty thirteen NFC West were
the best in that same timeframe. Packers can win this game,
but I think this is a dead under game. I
(08:56):
think this is going to be low scoring. I think
defenses rule. Gino. Smith has not played great straight up
at night games, but nine and five ats with Seattle
and the Jets been an underdog a lot in primetime.
He's two and ten straight up as a primetime underdog.
That's not great, but keep the game close. Lose by three,
he wouldn't cover, but under most likely comes in. We're
(09:19):
gonna play the under here in this game between these
two teams are going under forty six, So it's Bucks
plus three, Buffalo Detroit under fifty four and a half,
Green Bay in Seattle under forty six, and the teaser.
I'm taking both dogs in both unders under in dogs
Green Bay against the Lions tease up to plus eight
(09:39):
and a half and Seattle at home tease from two
and a half up to eight and a half. We're
gonna cross three, We're gonna cross seven. We're gonna create
our own long teaser here. Even though the Buffalo Detroit
game is not qualified because the total is fifty four
and a half, it doesn't qualify forty nine and lower.
That's what qualifies for a long teaser. But I'm gonna
pull the bills up because I think that's a back
(10:00):
and forth battle that's a three to four point win
for either Buffalo or Detroit. I think either side of
a teaser here will come. In Seattle, I think they'll
stay close. In fact, I think they'll win the game
outright against green Bay. They're desperate, they've got to keep pace.
They can't be They're in a dogfight. Green Bay most
likely is gonna win a wild card, if not win
the division. But Detroit's gonna be tough for them to catch.
So I think green Bay's got a little less urgency
(10:21):
and they're on the road against Seattle in primetime, and
that twelfth man I think is a big factor in
this game for the Seahawks. So I'm gonna to go
Bills plus eight and a half Seattle plus eight and
a half for a one point two unit teaser. All right,
So a couple of player props in a long teaser.
We'll come at you guys coming up on the live
stream starting at New n Eastern time, nine Pacific with
myself and Terrell Furman. I'm the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
(10:44):
Hope see all you guys there as we'll break down
these games. But once again, Bucks plus three Buffalo Detroit
under fifty four and a half, green Bay Seattle under
forty six, and the teaser is Bills Seattle, both at
plus eight and a half for one point two units.
My name is Matt Parolf because all socials at Sports
Talk Matt every morning. It is the daily news podcast
(11:04):
presented by DraftKings.
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