Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Lots of guys. How are you happy Monday? Welcome into
another episode of the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Peroult,
your host for this three hundred and sixty five sports
betting podcast Bonanza, and we are back after well a
flat day officially, but a good day thanks to Florida.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Let me explain.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
So, unfortunately we don't get the Colorado State to make
the sweet to make the Sweet sixteen bet right, which
would have won us three units. That was a travel
by the way, I know you Maryland fans want to
run around and claim that it was not. It was
a travel. That's what happened. Queen traveled. But fine, Maryland wins,
(00:55):
La Kings win easily over the Boston Bruins, so we
made it back. No harm, no foul with that, or
just flat. Saint Mary's got trounced, Ole miss destroyed against
Iowa State. So it's a two and two down point
one day for Sunday. However, Duke won easily and Florida survived.
(01:20):
I almost got burned by doing the rollover and getting greedy.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
The rollover was supposed to be.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Just Houston, and I got cocky and I added Florida
and Duke in order to just kind of pump it up.
So now if you started with one hundred dollars on
this experiment, you now have two hundred and seven dollars.
We will take the two hundred and seven dollars and
we will bet it on Houston on the money line
(01:50):
against Purdue. That's gonna win us about fifty dollars.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Okay, So we'll have two.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Hundred and fifty dollars barring and upset where Purdue is
a seven and a half point big dog. I will
make that play once I get to New Hampshire. So
I'm flying Wednesday afternoon. I am flying to New Hampshire.
I'm gonna get there late on Wednesday night. Thursday morning,
I will get up and I will bet the two
hundred and seven dollars at the only book that's in
(02:19):
New Hampshire, which is DraftKings. So I will make that
play on Thursday before the game. So if you're following along,
that's when I I'll post that ticket and we'll go
with it with two hundred and seven dollars on money
line Houston. If Houston wins, we'll have about two hundred
and fifty two hundred and sixty bucks going into the
Elite eight matchup, and we'll have a conversation, not saying
(02:43):
I'm gonna guarantee that we're gonna bet all of it.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
I don't know yet.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
I gotta kind of figure it out and think about
it as to how I may just take a little
profit for my time and bet one hundred and fifty.
Take one hundred out and say, okay, with this guarantee
that we don't lose any money, and let's bet the
one fifty that we have made from the book, and
let's go ahead and bet that on Houston, which will
probably be I don't know, probably if they played Tennessee,
(03:10):
it's probably going to be uh, I don't know, three
two and a half for Houston. So Moneaylanes for one
thirty one forty summer in that range, So you know,
bet one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred,
so then we'd wind up winning. You know, if if
that bet comes in, Catches will be up two hundred
and fifty bucks.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
So that's not bad for an experiment. So I don't know.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
We'll see how we're gonna play it out, but as
of right now, we're up one hundred and seven dollars.
Let's pause it until we hit the week the weekend
on Thursday, which, by the way, I'm making because I
don't think that bet coming up on Thursday where I'll
be Thursday and Friday I'll be in New Hampshire. So
technically it's a flat day. I had a nice day,
(03:55):
I had a nice winning day. But you know, technically
we're flat on that. Florida was a scare upon scare,
but we will take it. Let's get back to the professionals.
We've been all college for a while. Let's do the
NHL and let's do three NBA player props for today.
But before we do that, here's a reminder about the
college ranks and the NCAA Pickamconntest, which is still going
(04:19):
on right now. You guys can go and be a
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(04:40):
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All right, let's start in the NHL. We've done a
(05:00):
pretty good job with these two leg money line parlays.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
I hit it again. Okay, it's been four straight days.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
What's going on? Five straight days for these two leg
And that wasn't even a money line parlay technically yesterday,
even though it was Maryland, it was two leg money
line Maryland and the Kings. That was a money line parlay.
This won't be a money line parlay. This is sort
of a weird like kind of a twist on a
two leg money line parlay. Let's start with the Minnesota Wild.
The Wild are up against the Dallas Stars. This number
(05:33):
doesn't make any sense to me. This is really heavy.
Now minus two twenty five for the Dallas Stars against
the Minnesota Wild. What am I missing here? The Wild
are twenty two ten and three on the road. The
(05:53):
Stars are twenty six seven and two at home, and
they've won three straight games all at home, have won
two of three. Not nearly as good, but the Stars
are at home and their big favorites. The Stars won
the first game in Minnesota two to one. The Wild
won the second game in Dallas three to two. This
(06:17):
game is in Dallas. This is a one goal game.
Like this is a one goal game. The Wild may
win this game outright. You could take them on the
money line if you want. It's plus one eighty that's
an ESPN bet. It's plus one eighty four at Fandel
for this. Instead, I'm gonna jump in and take the
(06:39):
plus one and a half. Now that's minus one forty four,
So that goes. If the Wild win the game, this
cash is, or if they lose four to three or
three to two, if they go to overtime, this bet
cash is okay Again, I love the Stars. You guys
know where I am on the Dallas Stars. Their points,
(07:00):
and I want Dallas to keep rolling here. Dallas has
ninety two points, okay. They've played sixty five games, no, sixty, sorry,
sixty nine games they've played so far, so we're talking
thirteen fourteen games. I need five six more wins, okay
for Dallas, and then to get the ten to get
over to get the one hundred actually ninety that much.
(07:22):
I need eight, So I need four more wins to
get to get to eight points, get to one hundred,
and then we cash on the Dallas Stars. Well, no,
it's one o three, right, I think it goes The
bruise was ninety nine. I think the Dallas Stars is
one O three for points. Anyways, five more wins were
we're good. Okay, So if Dallas wins this game, that's fine.
Win the game three to two or four to three,
(07:44):
don't win it by more than one one goal. I'm
gonna take the Wild plus one and a half. And
by the way, the Wild on the road this year
are the second most profitable team on the puck line
on the road. They're twenty two in threeeen up five
point seven units. Only the Anaheim Ducks are better at
(08:05):
twenty six and ten up sixteen and a half units.
That's because they're always dogs and they're winning or they're
getting one and a half. So Minnesota is a very
good team on the road at twenty two ten and three,
meaning they're winning these games or they're just losing by
one goal. Plus one and a half goals for the Wild,
and we're gonna parlay that with the New York Islanders.
(08:29):
The Islanders are at home here tonight, up against the
Columbus Blue Jackets, who are absolutely reeling like they were
a playoff team for a little while. But they're now
eleven twenty and four on the road. The Islanders are
seventeen thirteen and four on the road. But Columbus now
(08:52):
has lost six games in a row, and they've lost
and they're two seven and one over their last ten
eleven twenty and four on the road, and they have
seventy one points. They are currently out of the wildcard spot.
They're behind the Islanders, who are two points up on them.
The Rangers have seventy four points, Islander seventy three points.
(09:15):
Columbus has seventy one points. Devils have eighty points. In
the wildcard standings, the Rangers have seventy four, Islanders seventy three,
Columbus seventy one. Montreal is the second and last wildcard
spot at seventy five points. So this is a big game,
but at home. I'm going to back the Islanders. Islanders
(09:37):
money line in any which way to win this game.
Islanders money line that is depending on the book plus
the numbers are moving around as I'm speaking. You get
this now a plus one ninety three if you want
to look around, so you basically we'll get this at
plus two hundred. I got plus one ninety six on this,
(09:59):
So just depends on the book you go to. I
got plus one day ninety six fanduels plus one ninety three.
It's somewhere in that range. Officially, we'll go with with
plus one ninety six, essentially a two to one return
on this Wild on the puck line catching a goal
and a half on the road to Dallas Islanders money
line at home against Columbus, that is a plus one
(10:21):
ninety six party. Throw one unit down on that for
a hockey play. Okay, again, the Wild may lose, let's
just lose, lose by one goal. Okay, keep this game
close three to two, five and a half to the total.
So the book's telling you basically three to two final
in some form or fashion. You know, the open netter
might be dangerous, but hopefully it's the Wild scoring the
open net, not the Dallas Stars. So that's what could
(10:43):
burn us. The open net could burn us, but it's
one unit so on a Monday, so let's fire on
it wild on the puck line, parlayed with the Islanders
on the money line. Okay to NBA player props, we go.
Let's start with Scottie Barnes. Scottie barn points in rebounds
prop for him coming up here for tonight. I got
(11:05):
two bets on this game. Scottie Barnes points in rebounds
over twenty five and a half at minus one oh six.
Why are we jumping in on this? Well, Scottie Barnes
is a guy that has been pretty good. In his
last game against Golden State, he was actually awesome. Twenty
(11:25):
nine points, he grabbed ten rebounds and six assists during
the one to seventeen one to fourteen loss to the
Golden State Warriors.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
That was a double double against the Warriors.
Speaker 1 (11:36):
Look, I mean, and now they're facing up against the
San Antonio Spurs and they're at home. I think we
got a decent shot here. Against Golden State, the prop
was twenty three and a half. He had thirty nine.
Now against Phoenix on the road, he was twenty four
and a half. He went under at the Spur against
Portland it was twenty five and a half. And he
(11:57):
went under against Utah he was twenty five and a half.
He got thirty, so he went over with that. Two
games against Washington both went under, but against Utah went over.
In Orlando, it went over for Scotty Barnes. The projection
for this, the prop bet cheat sheet is liking Scotty
(12:18):
Barnes to go over because this is a interesting matchup.
That said the Spurs. Sorry it's Washington. I don't know
why that says that. That's interesting. That's the proper bet
cheat sheet's got the Sometimes when I'm betting overnight and
you guys who are betting pros Premium members, you'll see
this a lot. You'll see some differences on this because
(12:38):
it says they're playing the Spurs. They're not playing the Spurs.
They'll play the Spurs in the last game. So it
hasn't reset yet from last night. That was last night's game.
This is on a back to back, so this is
Toronto on a back to back. It's up against Washington,
it's not up against the Spurs. But Scotty Barnes points
and rebounds is being projected for. Some were around twenty
(13:00):
nine point seven tonight on the prop bet cheat sheet,
and I think, well, I don't think I am. I'm
betting over on it. I'm gonna follow it. It's a
bad team.
Speaker 2 (13:10):
We know.
Speaker 1 (13:10):
Scottie Barnes had twenty two points last night. He had
a really good game last night. Scottie Barnes uh for
Toronto last night when had twenty two points, six assists
and sis rebounds. He was good last night for the Raptors.
(13:31):
Let's go ahead over twenty five and a half. The
projection is being set for Scotty for Scottie Barnes twenty
nine point seven. Like I mentioned, it's a four point
two projected differential thirty nine percent positive EV play against
the thirtieth ranked team against this prop, which is the
Washington Wizards, which is horrible. This has hit sixty percent
(13:54):
of the time over the last five games for Scottie Barnes.
We're gonna go ahead and play the over twenty five
and a half at minus one er was for Scottie Barnes.
Now there is a second play that we're gonna make
here on this. And I don't normally bet two overs
in the same game, but we're gonna bet Jordan Poole points,
rebounds and assists over twenty two and a half for him.
(14:15):
The prop bet cheat sheet has this set as a
projection for twenty eight for Jordan Poole, five star play
plus thirty eight positive EV and again, because Toronto's on
a back to back, not great defensively, it's a good
time to jump in on and over here it's twenty
two and a half and minus one twelve for Jordan Poole.
(14:37):
And again it's a game where you can take a
look at it and go all right. Last two games
have gone over for Jordan Poole. Against the Knicks he
had thirty one point, thirty one points, rebounds and assists.
Against Orlando he had twenty two. His prop was set
at twenty and a half. Now it's twenty one and
a half. Now it's twenty two and a half. So
it's slowly creeping up from the books. But he's going over.
(14:57):
So I mean, Orlando's the best defensive team in basketball.
The Knicks are very good defensively, and he went over
in both of these. We know that Toronto is not
the best defensive team in basketball, so this should be good.
Let's go ahead and jump in on that, which with
Jordan Poole over points, rebounds, and assists at twenty two
and a half, so two overs.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
That's rare. Okay.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
The final bet is an under, and it's a scary
one because it's Lebron James. Betting Lebron James unders is
never fun. However, it's only a second game back and
it's against Orlando, like I mentioned, the number one team
defensively in the NBA. The Lakers have lost two straight games.
(15:42):
They lost to the Bucks one to eighteen eighty nine
and they lost to the Bulls one forty six to
one fifteen. The Magic beat the Lakers in LA one
nineteen to one eighteen. Lebron james Is prop for points
and rebounds is set at thirty and a half now.
(16:02):
Lebron in the one game that he had back was
pretty good seventeen points, four assists, three steals, six sports
typical Lebron James game. He went over in the game
against Orlando, but that was a game that was played
back in November November twenty First, no Luca. Now with Luca,
(16:24):
Lebron's different. Lucas gonna carry most of the scoring and
the Lakers are fifteen and eighteen on the road. They're
not great. Eighteen and seventeen for the Magic at home.
I'm not saying that they're tremendous, but they're gonna look
to stop Lebron.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Here.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Lebron can score, you know, twenty five points, grab four rebounds,
and we're good and we're under. The rebound prop is
always scary because it's set at seven and a half
for Lebron, so we're gonna need him. His points is
set at twenty two and a half, so we're really
gonna need Lebron not to have a gigantic, crazy scoring game.
But he only scored and we had twenty three points
(16:59):
and in the game against Chicago, so that was a
really high scoring game, and Lebron went under this number
of thirty and a half. The prop bet Chichi is
projecting Lebron to have, you know, not that good of
a game. And I know, again it could be scary
to bet unders for Lebron, but I think this is
one of those times where you jump in and you
(17:21):
look at Lebron and say, okay, the injury minutes, how
often is he going to play? The projection is for
Lebron to come pretty far under this twenty five, twenty
six points rebounds for Lebron. Let's fade Lebron James and
bet an under with Lebron up against the Orlando Magic
coming up here for tonight. All right, so three NBA
(17:41):
player props and one two leg NHL parlay to recap
the Wild plus one and a half goals up against
the Stars on the road parlayed with the Islanders money
line at plus one ninety six for one unit. Scotty
Barnes points and rebounds over twenty five and a half,
half Lebron James points and rebounds under thirty and a
(18:03):
half in Jordan Poole points, rebounds and assists over twenty
two and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Let's see, let's get some offense for Toronto and Washington.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Let's have that be a crazy Aau Testyle basketball game
where every prop goes over and then Lebron game won't
matter all that much for us coming up on the
point points or the NBA player props.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
We've been very good at NBA player props. Let's keep
it rolling.
Speaker 1 (18:25):
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It is the Daily Juice