Best Bets for Saturday | College Football Week 1 Picks + MLB (8.30)

Welcome to the first college football Saturday of the regular season. It's week 1 and there are 3 MASSIVE college football games being played today. Host Matt Perrault has plays on all 3 of them for you on the Saturday episode of the Daily Juice. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we come to
you from New England, where we will be here for
a couple of days. Well really more than a couple
of days. Will be here for a while. I bounced
around to a couple different places, so the backdrops and
the shot will be a little different. If you're watching

(00:36):
on our YouTube channel for betting pros. If you guys
are listening on audio, well it's not that much of
a different sound for you guys. Maybe a little different
for us here. But this Saturday, the first Saturday of
the college football season, Week one, now the Discord Channel
chat will happen. Last week there was video. I'm going

(00:58):
to attempt to do it again with video, but I'm
not positive I'll be able to do it with video.
If I can, I will because that was fun to
be able to have just a video conversation on the
Discord Channel with you guys leading up to kickoff of
Week one. Now, Ohio State and Texas the big one.
So we'll start talking about that game, and we'll break
down on their picks, plays and thoughts about the entire

(01:20):
schedule for Week one. That will be at eleven am Eastern.
I'm on the East Coast now eleven am eastern, eight
o'clock Pacific on the Discord channel Bettingpros dot com slash
chat to join for that. We got a lot of
really good things to get into, a lot of games,
talk about a lot of lines to watch as we've

(01:41):
seen some big line movement, Texas and Ohio State being
one of them, which we'll get here in just one
second before I give you the picks here for today,
reminder of the offer we got going on right now
on Betting Pros Premium. If you're looking for a new
way to break down prop betting for baseball or the NFL.
If you're looking for new picks and premium subscriptions that
can lead you to our betting systems that could help

(02:03):
you in college football, check it out by downloading the
Betting Pros app for free and then use the code
Juice in the upgrade screen and you guys will get
a seven day free trial of Betting Pros Premium promo
code Juice after downloading the betting pros app Juice for
a seven day free trial. All right, let's talk about

(02:23):
Ohio State in Texas. This number hit as high as
Ohio State minus three, and now the Buckeyes are dogs.
They are home dogs. There's some discrepancy in the market.
At the time of taping, Ohio State at DraftKings is
catching one and a half points. Ohio State at FanDuel

(02:45):
is laying one and a half points, So you get ARB.
If you want to talk about a one point win
either side, you can drop down an ARB. We talked
about that on the Discord channel last night, but officially here,
this is where I'm at with this game. I was
going to take whomever was getting points. If the buck
Eyes were going to be favored, I was going to

(03:06):
take Texas. I think this is a coin flip football game.
But I also think that Ohio State at home being
a home dog is too good to pass up. Ryan
Day has been very good in big football games at home.
He's been very good in non conference football games at home,
and in big Top five matchups against non conference He's

(03:30):
also been very good. Now against Michigan, he's been horrible. Okay,
but Texas and Ohio State just played. Now, I understand
different seniors, different quarterback and Will Howard, different coordinators. With
Chip Kelly running this offense, I understand all the turnover
that Ohio State has had, But this is arch Manning

(03:50):
going on the road for his first start, and he's
doing it against one of the top ranked teams in
the country and one of the most difficult environments you
will ever play in. I mean, this is going to
be a bonker's game out of the gate. Now, can
he handle it? I think he can? Will he? I
don't know. The Buck guys have arguably the best receiving

(04:11):
core in college football, and justin saying the new red
shirt freshman quarterback regard sophomore quarterback actually will be able
I think to pick and choose and have his way
throwing the football today. I think both teams could put
up points here today. But again it's Week one. I'm
not betting totals, and I think if you see Ohio

(04:31):
State down I'd be very curious to see how they
handle it at home because that environment, I mean, it
is early in the year. It's so much about emotion
and will for these players, and I think the offense
for Ohio State. I think they get it done. I'm sorry,
I can't back Steve Sarkegian in this environment, given the

(04:52):
fact that he just lost to Ryan Day and Ohio
State in the playoffs. And again I'm not saying that
that's got anything to do with how this is going
to be play it out, but I think it does
matter in terms of the offense, different players. But I
think Ohio State's defense, this is Ohio State here, Okay,
this is a team. You don't just walk into this
place and beat up on the buck Eyes. And maybe

(05:12):
Art Demanding is him and maybe he goes in there
and throws like crazy and I'm dead wrong. But if
I'm betting this and I get plus one and a
half for Ohio State at home against anyone in college football,
I mean anyone in college football at home, I'm taking
the Buckeyes Ohio State plus one and a half here
for us for one point one units. I just think

(05:35):
the buck Geys are the side here to jump in
with plus money and then at some point during the
game we're probably going to get Texas plus two, plus three,
plus four, somewhere in that range, and hopefully we can
come in here and take Texas have both sides kick
our heels up and watch the football game and hope
for a low scoring, you know, tight tight game. So
in game this I think will be smart. But at

(05:56):
pre flop officially taking Ohio State plus one and a
half at home. DraftKings had that here, and I'm on
the East coast so I can use DraftKings and other
books as well, so it's pretty nice. At number two,
Alabama man Florida State. I have a hard time with
what Flora State has looked like. I think Alabama goes

(06:17):
in here today and has an opportunity to put up
a big, big number. And there's a lot of people
who are looking at this Crimson tied team and they're like,
you know what, there's a lot turnover here, new quarterbacks
starting on the road. They don't trust Ohio State, so
they don't trust Alabama. But I think Kellen de Bore

(06:38):
has got such a massive opportunity here to really quiet
down a lot of people who have questioned his hire,
to go out there and lay it down, to go
in there and take care of business, replacing Jalen Milroe,
replacing a lot of talent and going ahead and putting
up a number on Florida State that I think is

(07:00):
just really a mess. I mean, the Seminoles have been
a mess for a while. There's been a lot of
conversations about turmoil and firing and who comes next. This
number opened up at thirteen, it's been bet to fourteen.
I wouldn't play it over fourteen though, I mean minus
fourteen is the highest I would go with this, And
I think if you've got a thirteen or thirteen and
a half, I think you should be very excited about

(07:21):
that because I think this number has a shot for
this to kind of fall at fourteen, which is potential.
But I think BEMA wins the game by seventeen or
twenty points. I don't think this is going to be
very active. I mean a close game. I think the
Tide they're just better all over the place. And I
don't trust the Seminoles. I can't trust what they've looked

(07:42):
like over the last couple of years. This is a
team that hasn't lived up to any billing last year
year before, what we thought there might be a bounce
back spot. But for Kelln de borr Man, does he
need a win like this to start the year off
in a big way even on the road. You go ahead,
and I'm gonna lay the fourteen points here with Alabama,
I think that they get a big, big start to

(08:04):
the year, and I think Florida State is and I
know there's been news with Alabama's offensive line. They're not
going to have as good of an offensive line as
you would like. But I think ty Simpson is going
to be a good player for Bama. I think he's
going to be a good quarterback here. I think the
Crimson Tide puts a number up on Florida State. I'm
going to lay the fourteen points Alabama min is fourteen

(08:27):
on the road. And finally to Clemson and LSU. Man
I was also to take LSU, and then I watched
the Netflix special on LSU and the sec any given Saturday,
and I started to do a deeper dive into this

(08:48):
LSU defense. The LSU defense has been bad for two
years now, and I don't think they have fixed it
to the point where they can walk into Death Valley
Clemson version of it and beat Clemson outright. Clemson led
by Kaid Klubnik, who a Club Nick. I'm not a

(09:10):
fan of Club Nick. I haven't been a fan of
club Nick. I haven't been a fan of in the
transfer nil portal era. I have not been a fan
of what has happened with Dabosweeney, But I'm equally not
a fan of what we have seen from Brian Kelly
and the defense and the changes that are made have
been made consistently. They keep on swapping out defensive coordinators.

(09:34):
Now it's Blake Baker coming from Missouri to come in
trying to get this defense right. But they still have
really poor grades for Pro Football Focus. They don't tackle well,
and they really have gone heavy into the transfer portal,
grabbing players from all over the country, trying to put

(09:55):
together a defense that can stop somebody. But the problem
with that is you go on the ode to Clemson
in game number one. I mean, this is still Clemson. Okay,
Clemson still has recruited at a very high level. Dablosweeny
is still a really good coach, and Garrett Knutsmeyer, who
I like a lot. Okay, but he is. His decision
to come back to school was mostly because of the

(10:15):
fact that the NFL scouts said, you need to go
back because you're not going to get picked high. You're
gonna be a third, fourth fifth round pick. If you
come out right now, you might as well stay in college,
make a lot of money in NIL, and then see
what you can do with LSU. LSU's got tremendous talent
and they've gone into the transfer portal to grab a
couple of players to bolster that receiving corps for LSU.

(10:37):
And this is not a bad team. I think LSU
could surprise some people in the SEC. I really do.
But Clemson, to me, this is a huge opportunity in LSU.
I watched that special and I kept on coming back
to this idea of like, man, this team really doesn't
have a good sense of who they are, Like Nutsmeyer

(10:58):
knows who he is, but the coach staff and the
defensive coaching staff. On top of that, the number of
games they blew last year because they couldn't tackle or
they couldn't win on the road, they couldn't perform up
to their abilities. Sure at home, LSU is an extremely
difficult team to play, and UNSU can beat pretty much
anybody in the country when they're at home. But on
the road to Clemson, the number three and a half

(11:21):
at most books, four at some books, and climbing I
saw one book at four and a half. I think
there's a lot of late money here coming in on Clemson.
I think LSU's defense is going to be a problem.
I don't think they've got the weapons. I don't think
they've got the scheme to slow down Dabosweeney's team here.
I think they should be able to run the football.
I think they should be able to throw the football

(11:42):
and club Nick. I think gets a huge, massive win
for Clemson to go and start the year, to really
make Nussmeyer's life difficult and get at the offensive line,
obviously replacing some really good talented players who went to
the NFL off the offensive line from LSU. You ali
the three and a half Clemson minus three and a

(12:04):
half for one point one units. Okay, So our plays
for today on a Saturday, Ohio State plus one and
a half at home against Texas Alabama laying fourteen on
the road at Florida State, and Clemson minus three and
a half at home up against LSU. I will talk
to you guys later today on the Discord channel chat

(12:25):
as we get rolling at eleven am Eastern time, eight
o'clock in the morning Pacific time. On the Betting Pros
discord to join. It's Bettingpros dot Com slash chat myn's
Matt Parol. You guys can follow me across all my
socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys
get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice.