June 8, 2025 • 20 mins
A cooldown Saturday for host Matt Perrault who's luck didn't continue for the Play of the Day streak. That ended at 9 straight. But Matt is back looking to make a new streak with 3 plays for the NBA Finals and a bet on the SNB game. Find out the plays on the Sunday episode of the Daily Juice.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Sunday morning episode of
the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrelt. You
guys can follow me on my social media accounts at
sports Talk Matt. We're back after a losing day, but
I got a lot to talk about, in a lot
to say about what happened last night. We won the
horse race, but we lost. Sixteen dollars point one six
(00:38):
units is what we are using, as we went off
one hundred dollars. As I told you, that's what we're
going to use. Harrison gets there with ease, but the
underhits for Morob, who was dominant and I mean dominant
in his fight over sugar Sean O'Malley. The play of
the day goes down, Orioles money line comes in late,
(00:58):
so we end the day with a win. We're down
one point one units on the day. Not that big
of a deal just to losing day on a Saturday.
We're still having a winning week, winning month, and winning year.
So let's get to this Sunday. But before we do that,
I need to talk to you guys for just one second.
(01:19):
So I tried to go exotic yesterday and I thought
it might be kind of fun to put out something
for the Belmont, because I thought, all right, let's mix
it up. It's June, right, so let's add some new place.
Let's add some something different when I do that next time.
And I'm not sure I will ever bet horse racing
ever again, given the number of and I'm sorry to
(01:40):
call you guys this, but idiotic things that were said
to me on social media, both on the Discord channel
and on my Twitter account from you guys who bet
that and didn't understand or don't understand what paramutual betting is.
When the top two horses come in, the payouts that great.
(02:01):
So each one dollar exacta paid out six dollars and
sixty cents.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's not great.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
You go buy three, We bet three dollars. It's basically
nineteen twenty bucks. Right, Well, we bet thirty six to
win twenty back, so we win, but we lose money.
Why because we were hoping and it would have been
a different story if the six horse who came in
third on our ticket.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
By the way, if that.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Horse comes in second or first, if Baeza comes in
second or first, came in third, we have a winning day.
We have a winning ticket, so I was playing defense
on that. And then you know, the one horse on
the rail wasn't really a factor in the race, but
we put that on. There is a thirteen to one
(02:51):
long shot just to try to come over the top.
So we got sovereignty and we got journalism. Our ticket cashed.
But that's parama, that's horse racing. I can't get over
the number of people who were barking at me and
angry because you guys don't understand what you're betting. If
you don't get how to bet horses, don't bet horses. Okay,
(03:13):
somebody said, why didn't Matt tell me this was a possibility?
What about we to do spoon feed your food to you?
Why didn't Matt tell me this was a possibility. Well,
if you got what paramutual betting was, if you haven't
met horse racing before, well maybe you should ask somebody,
or maybe don't bet, Maybe just watch and see what
can happen and live vicariously through all of us rather
than sending me hate dms and message on Twitter and
(03:35):
everything else that went on yesterday. Because the ticket that
I predicted won, but it didn't win enough to make
you happy because the ticket lost money by the horses
coming in like I thought. So I predicted the race right,
But you don't understand how to bet horses, and so
(03:56):
you're gonna be a baby.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
I bet a triple crown race again, I don't know,
but that was ridiculous yesterday. I'm mad at myself because
I wanted to give myself an out.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
With that parlay.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
I should have just bet Morob and gone with Sugar
on kind of a half a unit knockout, and Morob
should have taken money line. I did not think Morob
was gonna submit O'Malley. I'll admit there that that surprised me.
O'Malley was doing great with takedown defense. He had twenty
seconds in the round to survive that and he couldn't
do it, unfortunately in the third round, so the under
(04:34):
comes in. I thought an under bet was decent for
a flyer play on that, but I took Amali on
the money line instead as a flyer play. So unfortunately
we lost two units on that. But the Orals come
back and get a w for us, So again, not
that big of a deal. All right, let's talk NBA
basketball today. We've got Game two NBA Finals, three bets
(04:55):
for us going on that and a strategic play. I'll
tell you about that here in twe just one second
and a bet on Sunday Night Baseball between the Red
Sox and the Yankees. But before I do that, let
me remind you about the Betting Pros app. Have you
downloads the free Betting pros app yet for iOS and
Android With sportsbooks Sink, you can automatically track your bets
(05:16):
across all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor
your bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks,
props and parlays. That app is where you find the
play of the day, which is now nine to one
over the last ten days and six in one in
the month of June. Best place to find the play
of the day is right there on the Betting Pros app.
(05:37):
You can create custom betting systems to find winning trends
and profitable opportunities. You guys told you before. You can
get a seven day trial for Betting pros Premium, where
you can find the prop bet cheat sheet, the same
prop bet cheat sheet that I have pulled two bets
off of for today's NBA game that I am going
to play on the daily Juice. You guys can go
and find that on Betting Pros Premium with the promo
(05:59):
code Juice after you download the Betting Pros app, after
you sync your sportsbooks to it, you then go and
use the code Juice Free Day seven trial for Betting
Pros Premium.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Go and check that out today.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
It's also where you guys can go and check out
Betting Pros in the Betting Pro Systems, which gives you
a chance to build your own custom bet systems by
bet type, time frame, best opportunities using real time data
and expert analysis. When it download the Betting Pros app
or go to bettingpros dot com slash Systems to take
a look at that elevate your betting strategy.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
When it comes to.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Overall what we're doing here for the Betting Pros app,
I'm going to try this week when it comes to baseball,
depending on when, maybe not this week, whenever we lose
either hockey or the NBA, the NBA Finals or the
Stanley Cup Final. Whenever we see one of those to end,
(06:55):
I will come back probably the next time we have
a day with no championships sports either hockey or basketball,
and I'll do a little bit more of an in
depth explanation of a betting Pro system, and I will
bet a betting Pro system that we have currently on
the app, and we'll make a playoff of it to
kind of explain it more, because I don't think we
have a great grasp of how to explain the Betting
(07:17):
Pro system and why is it such a cool tool
that you guys can use, Because it's a little wonky.
It's a little math heavy, and it's a little trend heavy.
So it's not a guarantee. It's not selling a pick,
it's not any of that. It's just selling you access.
The Betting pros premium subscription gives you access to this
gigantic database of data that you then can sift through
(07:40):
and use your own criteria to build a system that
could help you make bets. So it's a little convoluted.
I'll explain that more coming up later on in the
month of June.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
All right, let's get to tonight. Let's start with the line.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Pacers are catching eleven and a half points, eleven in
a half half points. If this closes at eleven, it
will be the third largest spread for an NBA Finals
game over the last twenty one years, we don't see
these very often. We don't see this. This is a big,
(08:17):
big number. The NBA Finals four teams have been favored
by minus ten or higher, including what happened where it
closed at ten for OKC in Game one. Those big
favorites are three and one straight up, but they're just
one in three against the number. Here's how I am
(08:38):
playing this. At some point in this game, we're going
to get a number much better for OKC than eleven.
I'm gonna take the points before tip, all right, if
it climbs overnight, take as many points as you can
take eleven and a half. Okay, generally speaking, I like
(08:59):
a ten point middle. I'm not sure we're gonna get
a ten point middle. I'm probably gonna have to settle
for like a like a five point middle. But the
idea of the Pacers go wide to wire is somewhat
hard to under are hard to see. Okay, in game two,
most likely they're not gonna go wire to wire. So
at some point the Pacers may have a lead. They
(09:21):
may have, you know, kind of a larger lead, and
we can come in and take the thunder at four
or five, somewhere in that range and look to middle this. Okay,
that I think is the best way to play this.
I don't know if Okasee covers the eleven. I think
they probably cover four or five. I think they most
likely win this game. But in the first quarter we
(09:41):
bet that in game one and we laid three with Oka.
See the number now is four and a half. That's
too heavy, okay. All that emotion is now nervous energy
for the Thunder. They came out, they were so fired up,
they were so excited. The building was on fire.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Let's go, and.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
They're up by nine points or ten points after the
first quarter. I could see them be trailing after the
first quarter against the Pacers. I mean, they've got nothing
to lose. They're playing with house money. They are loosey, goosey,
and good to go the Thunder. They're gonna be tight,
They're gonna be nervous. The Celtics lost Game one in
(10:23):
two at home to the Knicks, and they lost their
series in six. The Knicks lost games one and two
to the Pacers and they lost their series in six.
If the Thunder lose Game two and they're down two,
going to Indiana, they are in.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Serious trouble, and I mean serious trouble.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
I'll take the points Pacers plus eleven, and then we'll
look to middle that somewhere below two possessions. If we
get that number with OKC, we'll come in and jump
on it with OKAC. If not, if OKA SE gets
out to a gigantic lead, we just ride the eleven
and we hope that the scrubs come in and they
cover it late and we get the plus eleven to.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Come in for the Pacers.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Okay, it's not a guarantee, but you don't have to
middle it. You can just ride the Pacers plus eleven.
But eleven points, as I just told you, I mean
this is an insanely high number for the NBA Finals.
For an eleven point spread, especially for the team that
well one game one is now expected to get killed,
(11:30):
you have to get down by fifteen points. That's kind
of right where Indiana wants them.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Right.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
So along those same lines, let's go to the prop
bet Chia cheet and let's talk about SGA. SGA the
MVP of the league, points, rebounds, and assists. It's set
for forty two and a half prop bet cheat sheets
projecting forty two points, rebounds, and assists. In the first
game of this series, it got to forty six, thirty
(11:55):
eight points, five rebounds, and three assists, short of the
forty seven and a half half point number. In Game
seven or Game sorry five against Minnesota he had forty nine,
went over this number, but in the whole series against Denver,
the only time he went over forty seven points, rebounds
and assists was Game one. Every other game against Denver
(12:18):
he was under, and the Pacers did a really good
job in Game one under forty six. Now not way under,
but still under. Prop Betchichi, like I mentioned, is projecting
this as going under. And you look at the numbers
for SGA forty six, forty nine, fifty nine, okay, overs,
but then you get to Minnesota twenty two, forty nine,
(12:41):
forty five, forty two, forty one, forty four, thirty seven,
thirty eight and forty six. So going all the way
back to the seventh of May, SGA has only gone
over this three times. It's big number, points, rebounds, and
assists over forty seven and a half. We're gonna play
(13:01):
the under. This is a five star play according to
the prop bet cheat sheet. This is a seventy percent
cover probability. We're going under forty seven and a half
for SGA points, rebounds and assists at minus one twenty five. Now,
you guys don't like to play one prop on each
team one over one under, Let's talk about TJ McConnell.
(13:24):
TJ McConnell points, rebounds and assists over twelve and a
half in game number one fourteen to be exact, twelve
and a half is the number. Now fandul has got
it a minus one fourteen for TJ McConnell. This is
a sixty eight percent cover probability. Fifteen points, rebounds and
assists is with the projection from the prop bet cheat
(13:45):
sheet for TJ McConnell five star play again here in
a forty percent expected value, which is the highest the
prop bet cheat sheet will label a prop for forty
percent expected value. So this is a guy who has
gone over when over in game one, missed it against
the Knicks in Game six, but had it at seventeen
in game five on the road against the Knicks, he
(14:08):
went over this number all three times against the Knicks,
didn't go over against Cleveland on the road, missed it
all three times, but on the road against the Knicks
had sixteen sixteen and seventeen had fourteen in game one,
and the books came right back with a twelve and
a half for points, rebounds and assists. We're going to
play over points, rebounds and assists for TJ McConnell here
(14:32):
at minus one fourteen. All right, So for the NBA
plays for game two tonight, Pacers plus eleven, looking to
try to middle that SGA under forty seven and a
half points rebounds and assists and TJ McConnell over twelve
and a half points rebounds in assists. You guys know
what I like betting baseball on Sunday, but I do
bet the Sunday night baseball game.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
I went at Red Sox Yankees. I will get involved
with it. Initially.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
I'll get involved with it because the Red Sox pitching
staff is garbage.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Sucks.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Won ten seven yesterday. Garrett Crochet gave up five runs.
Red Sox somehow rallied and scored one run in the second,
five runs in the third, and two runs in the fourth,
and then two runs in the ninth to win the
game ten to seven. After nearly blowing the game to
the Yankees. It was it was what eight to seven,
and they scored two runs of insurance and won the
game ten to seven. Trevor Story had five RBIs yesterday,
(15:23):
Garrett Crochet Kate Aaron Judge three times, so he's due,
and the Red Sox are turning around and throwing Hunter Dobbins.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
You can bet first five over four and a half
if you want for the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
That team just it's insane.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
First three over should be two and a half or
three first five over.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
I don't mind it.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
But the problem is that Carlos run Don is pitching
for the Yankees, and the Yankees are twenty one and
eleven at home. And the Yankees are really good after
they lose a game this year.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
They're sixteen and seven this year.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
After they lose, they don't really go on losing streaks,
so they tend to bounce back. They won Game one,
lost Game two. Here's the road match, here's the Sunday
night baseball audience in cars. Rondon is eight and three
with a two point four to nine ERA, and Rendon
at home this year has been really good two point
three eight ERA. He's four and two eleven earned in
(16:18):
forty one and two thirds innings worth of work in
a one to fifty four opposing batting average. So I
don't like the Red Sox chances to score very much.
I don't mind the Yankees on the run line today.
It's cheap to bet the Yankees on the run line
if you want. I'm just I'm not in love with
the run line in rivalry games because the Red Sox
offense can score at times, and it can score against bullpens,
(16:39):
and the Yankees this year on the run line are
twenty nine and thirty four. That's just forty six percent
of the time, so that's not really all that great
against a loss. After a loss, they're fourteen and nine
on the run line, which is a little bit better
have them bounced back. But I think the better way
of attacking it is to fade the Red Sox pitching staff.
(17:00):
The Red Sox era in the first inning is over twelve.
It's actually the worst. If the year ended today, the
Red Sox would have the worst the worst ERA in
the first inning ever in Major League Baseball history for
a pitching staff. So like you can bet the yur fee,
we want that as well. But I think it's better
just look at the team total because I don't know
(17:21):
how many runs that Ron Don is going to.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Give up to the Red Sox bats. Could be quite
a few.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
But Hunter Dobbins is two to one with a four
point zero six ERA, and this is a big spot
for a young pitcher. He's got a four point five
ERA on the road, seven earned runs in fourteen innings
worth of work for him. His road starts have been
against Milwaukee where we went three innings gave up two
(17:47):
earned runs, Detroit we went five innings and gave up
five earned runs, and the Royals, where we went six
innings gave up zero earned runs. So a decent start
on the road, and then two not so decent starts
against the Tigers and the Milwaukee Brewers. So against this team,
the Yankees in prime time on Sunday night, team total
(18:10):
for the Yankees is four and a half. If Hunter
Dobbins doesn't give it up, the bullpen for the Red
Sox probably comes in and gives it up. So I
don't hate yr Fee, I don't hate Yankees on the
run line. I don't hate Yankees' money line, but it's expensive.
But I think the best bet is just to say
the Yankees score five runs in this game. They've scored
(18:30):
five runs in both these games. So far, Yankees have
scored six and sorry, nine and seven Yankees have scored
against the Red Sox so far.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
So they flew over five over four and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
You know, maybe that the Red Sox pitch really well,
but like, I don't know Red Sox offense. I mean
needs Roman Anthony, the number one prospect in baseball, who
had a five hundred foot home run and grand Slam
yesterday for triple A Wooster. I mean, I don't know
what the Red Talks are waiting for to get this
kid up. They scored ten runs yesterday. You could say, well, Matt,
(19:08):
they scored a bunch of runs. But I don't find
somewhere to play them. Play him in right field, play him,
I don't care. Just play him. He has to play.
He has to be called up. Marcel Mayer came in
and pinched hit. He got a hit and scored a
run tonight for the Red Sox. So he's playing third base.
He came in and played third So it's I mean,
right now, the Red Soxs are a little bit of
a mess. Pitching Scout's been a mess all year. Team
(19:29):
total Yankees over four and a half for one point
two units. That should say one point two, sorry not
one point one. So plays four today Pacers plus eleven
SGA under forty seven and a half points, rebounds and assists.
TJ McConnell over twelve and a half points, rebounds and
assists and Yankees team total over four and a half.
(19:50):
On Sunday Night Baseball min Is Matt Parol. You guys
follow miracles all my socials at Sports Talking Matt every
morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
It is the Daily Juice
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Sunday morning episode of
the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrelt. You
guys can follow me on my social media accounts at
sports Talk Matt. We're back after a losing day, but
I got a lot to talk about, in a lot
to say about what happened last night. We won the
horse race, but we lost. Sixteen dollars point one six
(00:38):
units is what we are using, as we went off
one hundred dollars. As I told you, that's what we're
going to use. Harrison gets there with ease, but the
underhits for Morob, who was dominant and I mean dominant
in his fight over sugar Sean O'Malley. The play of
the day goes down, Orioles money line comes in late,
(00:58):
so we end the day with a win. We're down
one point one units on the day. Not that big
of a deal just to losing day on a Saturday.
We're still having a winning week, winning month, and winning year.
So let's get to this Sunday. But before we do that,
I need to talk to you guys for just one second.
(01:19):
So I tried to go exotic yesterday and I thought
it might be kind of fun to put out something
for the Belmont, because I thought, all right, let's mix
it up. It's June, right, so let's add some new place.
Let's add some something different when I do that next time.
And I'm not sure I will ever bet horse racing
ever again, given the number of and I'm sorry to
(01:40):
call you guys this, but idiotic things that were said
to me on social media, both on the Discord channel
and on my Twitter account from you guys who bet
that and didn't understand or don't understand what paramutual betting is.
When the top two horses come in, the payouts that great.
(02:01):
So each one dollar exacta paid out six dollars and
sixty cents.
Speaker 1 (02:07):
It's not great.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
You go buy three, We bet three dollars. It's basically
nineteen twenty bucks. Right, Well, we bet thirty six to
win twenty back, so we win, but we lose money.
Why because we were hoping and it would have been
a different story if the six horse who came in
third on our ticket.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
By the way, if that.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Horse comes in second or first, if Baeza comes in
second or first, came in third, we have a winning day.
We have a winning ticket, so I was playing defense
on that. And then you know, the one horse on
the rail wasn't really a factor in the race, but
we put that on. There is a thirteen to one
(02:51):
long shot just to try to come over the top.
So we got sovereignty and we got journalism. Our ticket cashed.
But that's parama, that's horse racing. I can't get over
the number of people who were barking at me and
angry because you guys don't understand what you're betting. If
you don't get how to bet horses, don't bet horses. Okay,
(03:13):
somebody said, why didn't Matt tell me this was a possibility?
What about we to do spoon feed your food to you?
Why didn't Matt tell me this was a possibility. Well,
if you got what paramutual betting was, if you haven't
met horse racing before, well maybe you should ask somebody,
or maybe don't bet, Maybe just watch and see what
can happen and live vicariously through all of us rather
than sending me hate dms and message on Twitter and
(03:35):
everything else that went on yesterday. Because the ticket that
I predicted won, but it didn't win enough to make
you happy because the ticket lost money by the horses
coming in like I thought. So I predicted the race right,
But you don't understand how to bet horses, and so
(03:56):
you're gonna be a baby.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:59):
I bet a triple crown race again, I don't know,
but that was ridiculous yesterday. I'm mad at myself because
I wanted to give myself an out.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
With that parlay.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
I should have just bet Morob and gone with Sugar
on kind of a half a unit knockout, and Morob
should have taken money line. I did not think Morob
was gonna submit O'Malley. I'll admit there that that surprised me.
O'Malley was doing great with takedown defense. He had twenty
seconds in the round to survive that and he couldn't
do it, unfortunately in the third round, so the under
(04:34):
comes in. I thought an under bet was decent for
a flyer play on that, but I took Amali on
the money line instead as a flyer play. So unfortunately
we lost two units on that. But the Orals come
back and get a w for us, So again, not
that big of a deal. All right, let's talk NBA
basketball today. We've got Game two NBA Finals, three bets
(04:55):
for us going on that and a strategic play. I'll
tell you about that here in twe just one second
and a bet on Sunday Night Baseball between the Red
Sox and the Yankees. But before I do that, let
me remind you about the Betting Pros app. Have you
downloads the free Betting pros app yet for iOS and
Android With sportsbooks Sink, you can automatically track your bets
(05:16):
across all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor
your bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks,
props and parlays. That app is where you find the
play of the day, which is now nine to one
over the last ten days and six in one in
the month of June. Best place to find the play
of the day is right there on the Betting Pros app.
(05:37):
You can create custom betting systems to find winning trends
and profitable opportunities. You guys told you before. You can
get a seven day trial for Betting pros Premium, where
you can find the prop bet cheat sheet, the same
prop bet cheat sheet that I have pulled two bets
off of for today's NBA game that I am going
to play on the daily Juice. You guys can go
and find that on Betting Pros Premium with the promo
(05:59):
code Juice after you download the Betting Pros app, after
you sync your sportsbooks to it, you then go and
use the code Juice Free Day seven trial for Betting
Pros Premium.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Go and check that out today.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
It's also where you guys can go and check out
Betting Pros in the Betting Pro Systems, which gives you
a chance to build your own custom bet systems by
bet type, time frame, best opportunities using real time data
and expert analysis. When it download the Betting Pros app
or go to bettingpros dot com slash Systems to take
a look at that elevate your betting strategy.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
When it comes to.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
Overall what we're doing here for the Betting Pros app,
I'm going to try this week when it comes to baseball,
depending on when, maybe not this week, whenever we lose
either hockey or the NBA, the NBA Finals or the
Stanley Cup Final. Whenever we see one of those to end,
(06:55):
I will come back probably the next time we have
a day with no championships sports either hockey or basketball,
and I'll do a little bit more of an in
depth explanation of a betting Pro system, and I will
bet a betting Pro system that we have currently on
the app, and we'll make a playoff of it to
kind of explain it more, because I don't think we
have a great grasp of how to explain the Betting
(07:17):
Pro system and why is it such a cool tool
that you guys can use, Because it's a little wonky.
It's a little math heavy, and it's a little trend heavy.
So it's not a guarantee. It's not selling a pick,
it's not any of that. It's just selling you access.
The Betting pros premium subscription gives you access to this
gigantic database of data that you then can sift through
(07:40):
and use your own criteria to build a system that
could help you make bets. So it's a little convoluted.
I'll explain that more coming up later on in the
month of June.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
All right, let's get to tonight. Let's start with the line.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Pacers are catching eleven and a half points, eleven in
a half half points. If this closes at eleven, it
will be the third largest spread for an NBA Finals
game over the last twenty one years, we don't see
these very often. We don't see this. This is a big,
(08:17):
big number. The NBA Finals four teams have been favored
by minus ten or higher, including what happened where it
closed at ten for OKC in Game one. Those big
favorites are three and one straight up, but they're just
one in three against the number. Here's how I am
(08:38):
playing this. At some point in this game, we're going
to get a number much better for OKC than eleven.
I'm gonna take the points before tip, all right, if
it climbs overnight, take as many points as you can
take eleven and a half. Okay, generally speaking, I like
(08:59):
a ten point middle. I'm not sure we're gonna get
a ten point middle. I'm probably gonna have to settle
for like a like a five point middle. But the
idea of the Pacers go wide to wire is somewhat
hard to under are hard to see. Okay, in game two,
most likely they're not gonna go wire to wire. So
at some point the Pacers may have a lead. They
(09:21):
may have, you know, kind of a larger lead, and
we can come in and take the thunder at four
or five, somewhere in that range and look to middle this. Okay,
that I think is the best way to play this.
I don't know if Okasee covers the eleven. I think
they probably cover four or five. I think they most
likely win this game. But in the first quarter we
(09:41):
bet that in game one and we laid three with Oka.
See the number now is four and a half. That's
too heavy, okay. All that emotion is now nervous energy
for the Thunder. They came out, they were so fired up,
they were so excited. The building was on fire.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Let's go, and.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
They're up by nine points or ten points after the
first quarter. I could see them be trailing after the
first quarter against the Pacers. I mean, they've got nothing
to lose. They're playing with house money. They are loosey, goosey,
and good to go the Thunder. They're gonna be tight,
They're gonna be nervous. The Celtics lost Game one in
(10:23):
two at home to the Knicks, and they lost their
series in six. The Knicks lost games one and two
to the Pacers and they lost their series in six.
If the Thunder lose Game two and they're down two,
going to Indiana, they are in.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Serious trouble, and I mean serious trouble.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
I'll take the points Pacers plus eleven, and then we'll
look to middle that somewhere below two possessions. If we
get that number with OKC, we'll come in and jump
on it with OKAC. If not, if OKA SE gets
out to a gigantic lead, we just ride the eleven
and we hope that the scrubs come in and they
cover it late and we get the plus eleven to.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Come in for the Pacers.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Okay, it's not a guarantee, but you don't have to
middle it. You can just ride the Pacers plus eleven.
But eleven points, as I just told you, I mean
this is an insanely high number for the NBA Finals.
For an eleven point spread, especially for the team that
well one game one is now expected to get killed,
(11:30):
you have to get down by fifteen points. That's kind
of right where Indiana wants them.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
Right.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
So along those same lines, let's go to the prop
bet Chia cheet and let's talk about SGA. SGA the
MVP of the league, points, rebounds, and assists. It's set
for forty two and a half prop bet cheat sheets
projecting forty two points, rebounds, and assists. In the first
game of this series, it got to forty six, thirty
(11:55):
eight points, five rebounds, and three assists, short of the
forty seven and a half half point number. In Game
seven or Game sorry five against Minnesota he had forty nine,
went over this number, but in the whole series against Denver,
the only time he went over forty seven points, rebounds
and assists was Game one. Every other game against Denver
(12:18):
he was under, and the Pacers did a really good
job in Game one under forty six. Now not way under,
but still under. Prop Betchichi, like I mentioned, is projecting
this as going under. And you look at the numbers
for SGA forty six, forty nine, fifty nine, okay, overs,
but then you get to Minnesota twenty two, forty nine,
(12:41):
forty five, forty two, forty one, forty four, thirty seven,
thirty eight and forty six. So going all the way
back to the seventh of May, SGA has only gone
over this three times. It's big number, points, rebounds, and
assists over forty seven and a half. We're gonna play
(13:01):
the under. This is a five star play according to
the prop bet cheat sheet. This is a seventy percent
cover probability. We're going under forty seven and a half
for SGA points, rebounds and assists at minus one twenty five. Now,
you guys don't like to play one prop on each
team one over one under, Let's talk about TJ McConnell.
(13:24):
TJ McConnell points, rebounds and assists over twelve and a
half in game number one fourteen to be exact, twelve
and a half is the number. Now fandul has got
it a minus one fourteen for TJ McConnell. This is
a sixty eight percent cover probability. Fifteen points, rebounds and
assists is with the projection from the prop bet cheat
(13:45):
sheet for TJ McConnell five star play again here in
a forty percent expected value, which is the highest the
prop bet cheat sheet will label a prop for forty
percent expected value. So this is a guy who has
gone over when over in game one, missed it against
the Knicks in Game six, but had it at seventeen
in game five on the road against the Knicks, he
(14:08):
went over this number all three times against the Knicks,
didn't go over against Cleveland on the road, missed it
all three times, but on the road against the Knicks
had sixteen sixteen and seventeen had fourteen in game one,
and the books came right back with a twelve and
a half for points, rebounds and assists. We're going to
play over points, rebounds and assists for TJ McConnell here
(14:32):
at minus one fourteen. All right, So for the NBA
plays for game two tonight, Pacers plus eleven, looking to
try to middle that SGA under forty seven and a
half points rebounds and assists and TJ McConnell over twelve
and a half points rebounds in assists. You guys know
what I like betting baseball on Sunday, but I do
bet the Sunday night baseball game.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
I went at Red Sox Yankees. I will get involved
with it. Initially.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
I'll get involved with it because the Red Sox pitching
staff is garbage.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Sucks.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Won ten seven yesterday. Garrett Crochet gave up five runs.
Red Sox somehow rallied and scored one run in the second,
five runs in the third, and two runs in the fourth,
and then two runs in the ninth to win the
game ten to seven. After nearly blowing the game to
the Yankees. It was it was what eight to seven,
and they scored two runs of insurance and won the
game ten to seven. Trevor Story had five RBIs yesterday,
(15:23):
Garrett Crochet Kate Aaron Judge three times, so he's due,
and the Red Sox are turning around and throwing Hunter Dobbins.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Well, here's the thing.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
You can bet first five over four and a half
if you want for the Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
That team just it's insane.
Speaker 2 (15:40):
First three over should be two and a half or
three first five over.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
I don't mind it.
Speaker 2 (15:46):
But the problem is that Carlos run Don is pitching
for the Yankees, and the Yankees are twenty one and
eleven at home. And the Yankees are really good after
they lose a game this year.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
They're sixteen and seven this year.
Speaker 2 (15:57):
After they lose, they don't really go on losing streaks,
so they tend to bounce back. They won Game one,
lost Game two. Here's the road match, here's the Sunday
night baseball audience in cars. Rondon is eight and three
with a two point four to nine ERA, and Rendon
at home this year has been really good two point
three eight ERA. He's four and two eleven earned in
(16:18):
forty one and two thirds innings worth of work in
a one to fifty four opposing batting average. So I
don't like the Red Sox chances to score very much.
I don't mind the Yankees on the run line today.
It's cheap to bet the Yankees on the run line
if you want. I'm just I'm not in love with
the run line in rivalry games because the Red Sox
offense can score at times, and it can score against bullpens,
(16:39):
and the Yankees this year on the run line are
twenty nine and thirty four. That's just forty six percent
of the time, so that's not really all that great
against a loss. After a loss, they're fourteen and nine
on the run line, which is a little bit better
have them bounced back. But I think the better way
of attacking it is to fade the Red Sox pitching staff.
(17:00):
The Red Sox era in the first inning is over twelve.
It's actually the worst. If the year ended today, the
Red Sox would have the worst the worst ERA in
the first inning ever in Major League Baseball history for
a pitching staff. So like you can bet the yur fee,
we want that as well. But I think it's better
just look at the team total because I don't know
(17:21):
how many runs that Ron Don is going to.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
Give up to the Red Sox bats. Could be quite
a few.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
But Hunter Dobbins is two to one with a four
point zero six ERA, and this is a big spot
for a young pitcher. He's got a four point five
ERA on the road, seven earned runs in fourteen innings
worth of work for him. His road starts have been
against Milwaukee where we went three innings gave up two
(17:47):
earned runs, Detroit we went five innings and gave up
five earned runs, and the Royals, where we went six
innings gave up zero earned runs. So a decent start
on the road, and then two not so decent starts
against the Tigers and the Milwaukee Brewers. So against this team,
the Yankees in prime time on Sunday night, team total
(18:10):
for the Yankees is four and a half. If Hunter
Dobbins doesn't give it up, the bullpen for the Red
Sox probably comes in and gives it up. So I
don't hate yr Fee, I don't hate Yankees on the
run line. I don't hate Yankees' money line, but it's expensive.
But I think the best bet is just to say
the Yankees score five runs in this game. They've scored
(18:30):
five runs in both these games. So far, Yankees have
scored six and sorry, nine and seven Yankees have scored
against the Red Sox so far.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
So they flew over five over four and a half.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
You know, maybe that the Red Sox pitch really well,
but like, I don't know Red Sox offense. I mean
needs Roman Anthony, the number one prospect in baseball, who
had a five hundred foot home run and grand Slam
yesterday for triple A Wooster. I mean, I don't know
what the Red Talks are waiting for to get this
kid up. They scored ten runs yesterday. You could say, well, Matt,
(19:08):
they scored a bunch of runs. But I don't find
somewhere to play them. Play him in right field, play him,
I don't care. Just play him. He has to play.
He has to be called up. Marcel Mayer came in
and pinched hit. He got a hit and scored a
run tonight for the Red Sox. So he's playing third base.
He came in and played third So it's I mean,
right now, the Red Soxs are a little bit of
a mess. Pitching Scout's been a mess all year. Team
(19:29):
total Yankees over four and a half for one point
two units. That should say one point two, sorry not
one point one. So plays four today Pacers plus eleven
SGA under forty seven and a half points, rebounds and assists.
TJ McConnell over twelve and a half points, rebounds and
assists and Yankees team total over four and a half.
(19:50):
On Sunday Night Baseball min Is Matt Parol. You guys
follow miracles all my socials at Sports Talking Matt every
morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
It is the Daily Juice
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