December 8, 2024 • 18 mins
Another winning day for host Matt Perrault who is set up to have a very good week if things go well today. Matt has 4 bets for you on the Sunday episode of the Daily Juice presented by Draftkings. DRAFTKINGS PICK6: Download the NEW DraftKings Pick6 app NOW and use code JUICE. That’s code JUICE for new Pick6 customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits GUARANTEED.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Hey guys, Happy Sunday. Welcome in to another episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Peralta. Guys
can fellow me because all of my socials at Sports
Talk Matt in. This podcast being brought to you by
a friend at DraftKings. Okay, winning day yesterday. If you
took everything, including the Ohio play that I recommended, you
had a three in one day. Officially though, we went
(00:36):
two and two, still a winning day, but I gave
the quarter unit back when I had a Texas money
line play live at plus two ninety. On the next play,
there was an interception that stalked in through that almost
lost the game for Georgia. But they win the game.
(00:57):
We win a unit from Georgia. We lose a quarter
unit there, so we one point two Toy five lost
a quarter units up a unit there. Arizona State and
Iowa State. If you bet Arizona State really you won
that game too, so you would have gone four and one.
I didn't bet that I should have. I just bet
over fifty and a half. That came in for one unit,
not one point one unit. It came in for one unit,
and then we lost one point one units. Because Penn
(01:18):
State's defense is trash, So mark that down for the playoffs.
Not so much when they play at home and Happy
Valley in the first round, but when they go to
the quarterfinals, that defense is not very good. It's overrated.
I overrated Penn State's defense in James Franklin now goes
to a whopping one in seventeen straight up against top
five teams in his career one in seventeen. Guess who's
(01:42):
not winning the bracket? Who's not winning the national championship?
The Depenn State with that defense in James Franklin, they
scored a lot of points but couldn't stop in Oregon
to save their lives. So up point nine units on
the day. So this will try out to be a
very good depending on really regardless of what happens here
(02:02):
today on a Sunday. If we have a winning day,
that's great. If we don't, it doesn't really matter. We
will be profitable regardless of what happens here today. If
I lose every bet go oh and four and on,
lose the props and everything else, it won't really matter.
But got four bets for you guys here today, I'll
have four player props for you, coming at you on
the live stream at nine am Pacific time at noon
(02:23):
Eastern on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Andrew Erickson and
myself will take it through all the games here today
for the NFL. Then in between the afternoon games and
before the Sunday night game between the Chiefs and the Chargers,
I will break down the bracket from a betting perspective
on the Discord channel. We'll have the twelve team bracket.
(02:44):
We'll have some line move we'll have all the numbers
who have come out the books. Will take a couple
of hours to go ahead and put all the numbers up,
and there'll be some initial bets taken on the number
for the four games in round number one, and we'll
also look at the future wagers as to what the
past will be. I cannot believe Indiana is going to
be a part of this field. I cannot believe Boise
(03:05):
State could be a three seed, which is a clown show.
At least it looks like Arizona State's going to get
a bye, which is right, they'll get a buye here,
But I mean Boise getting a bye is ridiculous in
my opinion. But sure, Alabama being left out. I'm not
in favor of it, but I get it. Next year,
I think we will have a real conversation about schedule strength.
(03:29):
I mean, Penn State gave up half a hundred to Oregon.
Indiana beat nobody, and I mean nobody this year, didn't
play anybody and didn't beat anybody. Yet they're in this field.
You've got an Ohio State team that lost as a
double digit home favorite, lost at home, lost on the
road to Oregon as well. I mean, there's just a
(03:50):
lot of questions about the schedule strength of the Big Ten.
Why is the Big Ten getting four teams? It's kind
of interesting they're getting four teams, the ACC two, but
the SEC is getting three. Huh. Okay, sure, that's an
interesting not really not really something I would do. But
we'll see what the committee ends up doing. We'll break
(04:11):
it all down, coming up with you guys here for
a Oh wait, the cat, no cat hold on. Okay,
no cat, I'm not doing that again. I know better
keeping the cat out that would be bad. We'll leave
that in too. But no cat jumping up behind me
like last time. No way, Marshmallo will stay ahead of
the video today. But we'll do this between so at
(04:32):
five o'clock Pacific, eight o'clock Eastern, we'll do it up
to kickoff for the Sunday night game, breaking down the
bracket from a college football p second on the Discord
channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat to be a part
of that. If you're not already in the Discord channel,
come on over. I will do it. It's on the
d on the Matt Stages live chat. We'll do on
our discord So I'll talk with you guys, take questions,
(04:53):
we can argue, and if you are a big Indian
a person, come at me and let's argue. Because I
can't wait to see what you guys are going to say.
Because you're getting boat raced in your first game. You're
gonna get me on the road and you're gonna get
boat raced in your first game. But more on that
later Today. This podcast being brought to you by DraftKings
and their Pick six play five dollars, get fifty dollars
instantly in Pick six credits when you use the code
(05:16):
Juice at sign up for DraftKings and their Pick six app.
Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler Help is available for
problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Can I
get eighteen plus in most eligible jurisdictions, but other age
and eligibility restrictions may apply. That would only in jurisdictions
(05:36):
where DraftKings Pick six operates. Pick six not available everywhere,
including but not limited to New York, California, Ontario. Voidware prohibited.
For more info in terms, go to Pick six dot
DraftKings dot com slash promos. Okay, let's talk about the
games here today. We've got four four bets to give
(05:59):
you guys. I have two straight bets, one total and
one teaser to give you guys here on the Daily Juice.
Let's start here with the uh, well, what do we
want to start with? Let's start with the Cardinals. The
Cardinals are at home, laying two and a half points.
(06:19):
The Cardinals have been sneaky this year. They've mean sneaky.
It's a divisional game. The Cardinals last three home games,
they have not allowed a single touchdown to the opposing team.
Twenty six drives, no touchdowns, six points by the Jets,
twelve points by the Bears, and eight points by the Chargers.
It's pretty good. It's pretty good. The Cardinals have stunk
(06:43):
against the West, However, against the NC West, they are
four and eleven ats since the start of the twenty
twenty two season. That's the least profitable team against their
divisional opponents. Kyler Murray against the West in his career
is horrible, nine fifteen in two He's five thirteen and
one against the Seahawks. However, however, the Seahawks travel schedule
(07:08):
is insane. The Seahawks will be, according to the Action Network,
just the eleven teams since two thousand and three, to
play a road game in New York against the Jets
or the Giants and then have a travel cross country
to play again in either the Mountain or Pacific time zone.
Those teams are failing to cover the spread by nearly
(07:28):
six points per game and already lost it once this year.
When the Patriots traveled to San Francisco in Week twelve,
they're home against they were home against the Cardinals. Then
in Week thirteen they traveled across the country to the Jets,
and now in Week fourteen they're coming back across the
country to play the Cardinals. Teams that go from the
Pacific to the East and then back to either the
(07:50):
Mountain time or Pacific time are thirty fifty eight to
one ATS. That's thirty four percent over the last ten years,
failing to cover the spread by an average of three
point six points per game. That is not good. Okay,
the Arizona pass rush has been pretty good. Defensively, they've
(08:11):
been pretty good. Gino Smith in his career has been
pretty good against bad defenses and are against good defense
rather that push. But he's nine twenty seven nineteen and
one when facing a defense with a below four percent sacrate.
But he's nine seventeen and three ATS when he's facing
a defense with a four percent or higher sacrate. The
(08:35):
Cardinals come in at a four point three percent sacrate
on the year. We are laying the two and a
half points with the Arizona Cardinals Arizona minus two and
a half up against the Seattle Seahawks bet number two,
and this game. This game is a little bit like
hold your nose. The Raiders are starting Aidan O'Connell, who's
(08:56):
been pretty good as a starter, against Baker Mayfield, who's
been as a favorite. They got Brack Bauers on this team.
Baker Mayfield as a starter hasn't been great, okay, but
he is. He's been better with this team. With the Bucks.
(09:16):
Last week, the Bucks were six and a half point favorites.
They barely got to win in overtime. They did not cover.
In his career, Baker Mayfield is seventeen twenty eight and
one ATS as a favorite. That makes him the third
worst quarterback of the ninety eight to play in the
NFL since he was drafted. The Raiders crazily enough when
(09:36):
they go across the country road teams who are based
in the Pacific time zone. When they play in the East,
they're eighty eight fifty three and four against the spread,
including eleven eight and one ATS this year. It's wild, right, bodyclock, okay,
when they play it's a bodyclock thing. So they go east.
They're just everyone thinks they're going to play poorly, and
(09:57):
they don't. They play better. It's kind of amazing, but
they do. The Bucks and the Panthers played overtime last
week and are playing on eight days. Rest or less.
Teams that are on this are have been one to
eleven one forty three forty four percent to a cover
over the last decade. Under five hundred over the last
(10:19):
three years ats as well so the Bucks in overtime
last week against the Panthers. As they come back home
now and take on a Raider team coming across the
country with Aidan O'Connell who's been pretty good. The Raiders
have been behind in every single game this year. However,
in all twelve of their games this year, they've been
down by ten or more points to the first team
(10:40):
to do that since nineteen eighty six, just the third
team ever to do that, with the eighty six Colts
and the seventy two Patriots. The ASEX Colts fell behind
double j's in sixteen straight games. But they fall behind
and they come back. I mean they in the second half.
They make a game, which is amazingly enough. And Aan
(11:00):
O'Connell has been a decent quarterback against the number, more
than decent quarterback against the number. I'm going to take
the seven points here. Give me the Raiders plus seven
on the road against Baker Mayfield. I think Baker wins,
but Baker against the number is not good. I think
this Raiders defense can hang around. I like the Raiders
to keep it close. Raiders plus seven for one point
(11:22):
one units. Okay to the one total. We've talked a
ton about this Sunday Night football. Unders have just been very,
very profitable, and this is the Chargers at the Chiefs
on Sunday Night. Patrick Mahomes has stunk against the number
he does own, the AFC West. However, incredibly enough, he's
(11:46):
o three and one ats against the AFC West this year.
He's four to ten and one ats over the last
four years against his own division. The four ten and
one ats mark is the worst for any quarterback in
the NFL over that span against his own division. It's remarkable.
It doesn't make any sense. However, Mahomes is nine and
two straight up against the Chargers in his career, but
(12:08):
just four five and two ats overall, two four and
one ats against Justin Herbert. Mahomes six wins versus Herbert
is the second most versus any quarterback. It's the most
versus Derek Carr, where he was nine and one straight
up against Derek Carr. When Mahome faces teams allowing seventeen
points or fewer in his career, he's thirteen and two
(12:30):
straight up. That's unbelievable. However, the Chargers as an underdog
of more than three points. Justin Herbert is ten two
in one ATS in his career, including a six one
in one ATS mark against the AFC West. I love
a same game teaser here in this game, guys, I
(12:50):
love a same game teaser. I love taking the Chargers
up to ten and then taking the total from forty
three up to forty nine and going under. I will
one one hundred percent do that, But since I already
have one teaser going, I don't like doing more than
one teaser officially here, so I'm gonna play the under.
And the reason is Justin Herbert has been an under machine,
(13:13):
like just an under machine in his career, and I
don't entirely know why, but the Chargers are eight and
four to the under in full game totals this season.
They're twenty to nine to the under since the start
of last year. Justin Herbert is now eighteen and seven
to the under since the start of last season, including
an eighteen and five record to the under in his
(13:35):
last twenty three starts. And Sunday Night Football has been
a dead under game this season, historically dead under under
forty three for one point one units for the Chiefs
and the Chargers, and finally we go to the teaser.
The teaser is going to be an interesting play for
(13:56):
us because I'm looking at the Bears and the Giants.
If you're watching this, you can see this. See this
Bears plus nine, Giants plus nine and a half, the
Bears at plus four. Here comes the dead cat bounce
for the Bears. Okay, I think the Bears cover the
four by themselves, but I'll tease it up. But the
dead cat bounce has been a real thing teams. There
(14:18):
have been forty teams to fire their coach during the
regular season since two thousand and three. Those teams have
gone eighteen and twenty two straight up in twenty three
and seventeen against the spread in the first game following
their firing, which is amazingly enough. So you fire a
team mid mid season, you get a bounce. The Browns
(14:38):
in twenty eighteen fired Hugh Jackson amazingly enough, and they
went five to three. Isn't often a team fires a
head coach mid season after going above five hundred ats
in the year. Ebraflus Matt Eberflus became just a fifth
head coach in two thousand and three to do that.
In the only one three or three plus games above
five hundred ats. Hugh Jackson it was five and three
(15:00):
ATS in twenty eighteen. He got fired. Ibra Flus was
seven to four and one ATS on the year and
he got fired. Dead cat bounce Bears plus nine. Will
take that from four or from three? Rather it's three.
Now that number is let's see where's the Bears. It
was three this morning. It's a going below three for
the Bears. I can't imagine it would, but no, it's three.
(15:23):
So take from Bears to three up to nine against
the forty nine ers, and then we'll go to the Giants.
And look, you know, ain't a bit of the Giants.
It's scary, but they're at home against the Saints. And look,
Derek Carr stinks. He just stinks, and he sinks against
bad defenses too, which is amazing enough. The Giants aren't
any good. There are six games, so there are on
(15:45):
a seven game ATS losing streak. This is the longest
Giant streak against the number as a franchise in the
Super Bowl era. If the Giants don't cover on Sunday,
they would also own a five game ATS at home
losing streak. Again, the longest as a franchise since two
thousand and three, when they lost seven straight games at
home against the Number. Giants have just absolutely stunk, okay.
(16:09):
Brian Dabble is six and four in extended prep as
the Giants head coach. They played on Thanksgiving, now they're
playing on Sunday. He is over five hundred ATS with
both Tommy Devido and Daniel Jones playing on extended rest.
But here we are with Drew Locke playing quarterback today
for the Giants. Cold weather at MetLife, which is not
good for Derek Carr. When he's a favorite. In conditions
(16:32):
below forty below fifty degrees, he's one in four ats,
failing to cover by seven point four points per game.
And Derek Carr as a favorite, he's twenty two thirty
nine and two ats as a favorite. That's the worst
mark of any quarterback since two thousand and three. As
(16:52):
a road favorite, Derek Carr is one fourteen and one
ats in sixteen spots. The one lone covery on the
road as a favorite was against the Colts Indoors. Tease
it up. Giants probably cover it by themselves, but I'm
gonna tease it up to nine and a half one
point two units down Bears plus nine Giants plus nine
(17:15):
and a half. Okay, So the official card for today
on Sunday for the Daily Juice Cardinals laying two and
a half at home against the Seahawks Raiders, catching seven
on the road against the Bucks Raiders. Sorry, that should
say Chiefs, not Raiders. Sorry Chiefs and the Chargers under
forty three on Sunday night. But I love the same
(17:36):
game teaser in that game to tease it up to
nine and put the forty three up to forty nine
and go under. And then the teaser official is Bears
plus nine Giants plus nine and a half. I will
talk to you on the live stream at noon Easter
with Andrew Erickson for my player props. They'll give you
guys here plus breakdown every game in line movement. And
Andrew and I were talking about every game on the
(17:56):
card for Sunday. I'll give you picks and plays and
thoughts there and after the game, the late games and
before the Sunday night game on the Discord channel OUP
break down the bracket from a betting perspective for the
College Football National Championship, the first ever twelve team bracket.
We will do that coming up at about five o'clock
Pacific eight pm Eastern time on the Discord channel bettingpros
(18:17):
dot Com slash chat to join Minus Matt Parol fom
mecause all socials at Sports Doc Matt. Every morning, it's
the Daily Juice podcast presented by Draftkicks
Hey guys, Happy Sunday. Welcome in to another episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Peralta. Guys
can fellow me because all of my socials at Sports
Talk Matt in. This podcast being brought to you by
a friend at DraftKings. Okay, winning day yesterday. If you
took everything, including the Ohio play that I recommended, you
had a three in one day. Officially though, we went
(00:36):
two and two, still a winning day, but I gave
the quarter unit back when I had a Texas money
line play live at plus two ninety. On the next play,
there was an interception that stalked in through that almost
lost the game for Georgia. But they win the game.
(00:57):
We win a unit from Georgia. We lose a quarter
unit there, so we one point two Toy five lost
a quarter units up a unit there. Arizona State and
Iowa State. If you bet Arizona State really you won
that game too, so you would have gone four and one.
I didn't bet that I should have. I just bet
over fifty and a half. That came in for one unit,
not one point one unit. It came in for one unit,
and then we lost one point one units. Because Penn
(01:18):
State's defense is trash, So mark that down for the playoffs.
Not so much when they play at home and Happy
Valley in the first round, but when they go to
the quarterfinals, that defense is not very good. It's overrated.
I overrated Penn State's defense in James Franklin now goes
to a whopping one in seventeen straight up against top
five teams in his career one in seventeen. Guess who's
(01:42):
not winning the bracket? Who's not winning the national championship?
The Depenn State with that defense in James Franklin, they
scored a lot of points but couldn't stop in Oregon
to save their lives. So up point nine units on
the day. So this will try out to be a
very good depending on really regardless of what happens here
(02:02):
today on a Sunday. If we have a winning day,
that's great. If we don't, it doesn't really matter. We
will be profitable regardless of what happens here today. If
I lose every bet go oh and four and on,
lose the props and everything else, it won't really matter.
But got four bets for you guys here today, I'll
have four player props for you, coming at you on
the live stream at nine am Pacific time at noon
(02:23):
Eastern on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Andrew Erickson and
myself will take it through all the games here today
for the NFL. Then in between the afternoon games and
before the Sunday night game between the Chiefs and the Chargers,
I will break down the bracket from a betting perspective
on the Discord channel. We'll have the twelve team bracket.
(02:44):
We'll have some line move we'll have all the numbers
who have come out the books. Will take a couple
of hours to go ahead and put all the numbers up,
and there'll be some initial bets taken on the number
for the four games in round number one, and we'll
also look at the future wagers as to what the
past will be. I cannot believe Indiana is going to
be a part of this field. I cannot believe Boise
(03:05):
State could be a three seed, which is a clown show.
At least it looks like Arizona State's going to get
a bye, which is right, they'll get a buye here,
But I mean Boise getting a bye is ridiculous in
my opinion. But sure, Alabama being left out. I'm not
in favor of it, but I get it. Next year,
I think we will have a real conversation about schedule strength.
(03:29):
I mean, Penn State gave up half a hundred to Oregon.
Indiana beat nobody, and I mean nobody this year, didn't
play anybody and didn't beat anybody. Yet they're in this field.
You've got an Ohio State team that lost as a
double digit home favorite, lost at home, lost on the
road to Oregon as well. I mean, there's just a
(03:50):
lot of questions about the schedule strength of the Big Ten.
Why is the Big Ten getting four teams? It's kind
of interesting they're getting four teams, the ACC two, but
the SEC is getting three. Huh. Okay, sure, that's an
interesting not really not really something I would do. But
we'll see what the committee ends up doing. We'll break
(04:11):
it all down, coming up with you guys here for
a Oh wait, the cat, no cat hold on. Okay,
no cat, I'm not doing that again. I know better
keeping the cat out that would be bad. We'll leave
that in too. But no cat jumping up behind me
like last time. No way, Marshmallo will stay ahead of
the video today. But we'll do this between so at
(04:32):
five o'clock Pacific, eight o'clock Eastern, we'll do it up
to kickoff for the Sunday night game, breaking down the
bracket from a college football p second on the Discord
channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat to be a part
of that. If you're not already in the Discord channel,
come on over. I will do it. It's on the
d on the Matt Stages live chat. We'll do on
our discord So I'll talk with you guys, take questions,
(04:53):
we can argue, and if you are a big Indian
a person, come at me and let's argue. Because I
can't wait to see what you guys are going to say.
Because you're getting boat raced in your first game. You're
gonna get me on the road and you're gonna get
boat raced in your first game. But more on that
later Today. This podcast being brought to you by DraftKings
and their Pick six play five dollars, get fifty dollars
instantly in Pick six credits when you use the code
(05:16):
Juice at sign up for DraftKings and their Pick six app.
Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler Help is available for
problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot organ Can I
get eighteen plus in most eligible jurisdictions, but other age
and eligibility restrictions may apply. That would only in jurisdictions
(05:36):
where DraftKings Pick six operates. Pick six not available everywhere,
including but not limited to New York, California, Ontario. Voidware prohibited.
For more info in terms, go to Pick six dot
DraftKings dot com slash promos. Okay, let's talk about the
games here today. We've got four four bets to give
(05:59):
you guys. I have two straight bets, one total and
one teaser to give you guys here on the Daily Juice.
Let's start here with the uh, well, what do we
want to start with? Let's start with the Cardinals. The
Cardinals are at home, laying two and a half points.
(06:19):
The Cardinals have been sneaky this year. They've mean sneaky.
It's a divisional game. The Cardinals last three home games,
they have not allowed a single touchdown to the opposing team.
Twenty six drives, no touchdowns, six points by the Jets,
twelve points by the Bears, and eight points by the Chargers.
It's pretty good. It's pretty good. The Cardinals have stunk
(06:43):
against the West, However, against the NC West, they are
four and eleven ats since the start of the twenty
twenty two season. That's the least profitable team against their
divisional opponents. Kyler Murray against the West in his career
is horrible, nine fifteen in two He's five thirteen and
one against the Seahawks. However, however, the Seahawks travel schedule
(07:08):
is insane. The Seahawks will be, according to the Action Network,
just the eleven teams since two thousand and three, to
play a road game in New York against the Jets
or the Giants and then have a travel cross country
to play again in either the Mountain or Pacific time zone.
Those teams are failing to cover the spread by nearly
(07:28):
six points per game and already lost it once this year.
When the Patriots traveled to San Francisco in Week twelve,
they're home against they were home against the Cardinals. Then
in Week thirteen they traveled across the country to the Jets,
and now in Week fourteen they're coming back across the
country to play the Cardinals. Teams that go from the
Pacific to the East and then back to either the
(07:50):
Mountain time or Pacific time are thirty fifty eight to
one ATS. That's thirty four percent over the last ten years,
failing to cover the spread by an average of three
point six points per game. That is not good. Okay,
the Arizona pass rush has been pretty good. Defensively, they've
(08:11):
been pretty good. Gino Smith in his career has been
pretty good against bad defenses and are against good defense
rather that push. But he's nine twenty seven nineteen and
one when facing a defense with a below four percent sacrate.
But he's nine seventeen and three ATS when he's facing
a defense with a four percent or higher sacrate. The
(08:35):
Cardinals come in at a four point three percent sacrate
on the year. We are laying the two and a
half points with the Arizona Cardinals Arizona minus two and
a half up against the Seattle Seahawks bet number two,
and this game. This game is a little bit like
hold your nose. The Raiders are starting Aidan O'Connell, who's
(08:56):
been pretty good as a starter, against Baker Mayfield, who's
been as a favorite. They got Brack Bauers on this team.
Baker Mayfield as a starter hasn't been great, okay, but
he is. He's been better with this team. With the Bucks.
(09:16):
Last week, the Bucks were six and a half point favorites.
They barely got to win in overtime. They did not cover.
In his career, Baker Mayfield is seventeen twenty eight and
one ATS as a favorite. That makes him the third
worst quarterback of the ninety eight to play in the
NFL since he was drafted. The Raiders crazily enough when
(09:36):
they go across the country road teams who are based
in the Pacific time zone. When they play in the East,
they're eighty eight fifty three and four against the spread,
including eleven eight and one ATS this year. It's wild, right, bodyclock, okay,
when they play it's a bodyclock thing. So they go east.
They're just everyone thinks they're going to play poorly, and
(09:57):
they don't. They play better. It's kind of amazing, but
they do. The Bucks and the Panthers played overtime last
week and are playing on eight days. Rest or less.
Teams that are on this are have been one to
eleven one forty three forty four percent to a cover
over the last decade. Under five hundred over the last
(10:19):
three years ats as well so the Bucks in overtime
last week against the Panthers. As they come back home
now and take on a Raider team coming across the
country with Aidan O'Connell who's been pretty good. The Raiders
have been behind in every single game this year. However,
in all twelve of their games this year, they've been
down by ten or more points to the first team
(10:40):
to do that since nineteen eighty six, just the third
team ever to do that, with the eighty six Colts
and the seventy two Patriots. The ASEX Colts fell behind
double j's in sixteen straight games. But they fall behind
and they come back. I mean they in the second half.
They make a game, which is amazingly enough. And Aan
(11:00):
O'Connell has been a decent quarterback against the number, more
than decent quarterback against the number. I'm going to take
the seven points here. Give me the Raiders plus seven
on the road against Baker Mayfield. I think Baker wins,
but Baker against the number is not good. I think
this Raiders defense can hang around. I like the Raiders
to keep it close. Raiders plus seven for one point
(11:22):
one units. Okay to the one total. We've talked a
ton about this Sunday Night football. Unders have just been very,
very profitable, and this is the Chargers at the Chiefs
on Sunday Night. Patrick Mahomes has stunk against the number
he does own, the AFC West. However, incredibly enough, he's
(11:46):
o three and one ats against the AFC West this year.
He's four to ten and one ats over the last
four years against his own division. The four ten and
one ats mark is the worst for any quarterback in
the NFL over that span against his own division. It's remarkable.
It doesn't make any sense. However, Mahomes is nine and
two straight up against the Chargers in his career, but
(12:08):
just four five and two ats overall, two four and
one ats against Justin Herbert. Mahomes six wins versus Herbert
is the second most versus any quarterback. It's the most
versus Derek Carr, where he was nine and one straight
up against Derek Carr. When Mahome faces teams allowing seventeen
points or fewer in his career, he's thirteen and two
(12:30):
straight up. That's unbelievable. However, the Chargers as an underdog
of more than three points. Justin Herbert is ten two
in one ATS in his career, including a six one
in one ATS mark against the AFC West. I love
a same game teaser here in this game, guys, I
(12:50):
love a same game teaser. I love taking the Chargers
up to ten and then taking the total from forty
three up to forty nine and going under. I will
one one hundred percent do that, But since I already
have one teaser going, I don't like doing more than
one teaser officially here, so I'm gonna play the under.
And the reason is Justin Herbert has been an under machine,
(13:13):
like just an under machine in his career, and I
don't entirely know why, but the Chargers are eight and
four to the under in full game totals this season.
They're twenty to nine to the under since the start
of last year. Justin Herbert is now eighteen and seven
to the under since the start of last season, including
an eighteen and five record to the under in his
(13:35):
last twenty three starts. And Sunday Night Football has been
a dead under game this season, historically dead under under
forty three for one point one units for the Chiefs
and the Chargers, and finally we go to the teaser.
The teaser is going to be an interesting play for
(13:56):
us because I'm looking at the Bears and the Giants.
If you're watching this, you can see this. See this
Bears plus nine, Giants plus nine and a half, the
Bears at plus four. Here comes the dead cat bounce
for the Bears. Okay, I think the Bears cover the
four by themselves, but I'll tease it up. But the
dead cat bounce has been a real thing teams. There
(14:18):
have been forty teams to fire their coach during the
regular season since two thousand and three. Those teams have
gone eighteen and twenty two straight up in twenty three
and seventeen against the spread in the first game following
their firing, which is amazingly enough. So you fire a
team mid mid season, you get a bounce. The Browns
(14:38):
in twenty eighteen fired Hugh Jackson amazingly enough, and they
went five to three. Isn't often a team fires a
head coach mid season after going above five hundred ats
in the year. Ebraflus Matt Eberflus became just a fifth
head coach in two thousand and three to do that.
In the only one three or three plus games above
five hundred ats. Hugh Jackson it was five and three
(15:00):
ATS in twenty eighteen. He got fired. Ibra Flus was
seven to four and one ATS on the year and
he got fired. Dead cat bounce Bears plus nine. Will
take that from four or from three? Rather it's three.
Now that number is let's see where's the Bears. It
was three this morning. It's a going below three for
the Bears. I can't imagine it would, but no, it's three.
(15:23):
So take from Bears to three up to nine against
the forty nine ers, and then we'll go to the Giants.
And look, you know, ain't a bit of the Giants.
It's scary, but they're at home against the Saints. And look,
Derek Carr stinks. He just stinks, and he sinks against
bad defenses too, which is amazing enough. The Giants aren't
any good. There are six games, so there are on
(15:45):
a seven game ATS losing streak. This is the longest
Giant streak against the number as a franchise in the
Super Bowl era. If the Giants don't cover on Sunday,
they would also own a five game ATS at home
losing streak. Again, the longest as a franchise since two
thousand and three, when they lost seven straight games at
home against the Number. Giants have just absolutely stunk, okay.
(16:09):
Brian Dabble is six and four in extended prep as
the Giants head coach. They played on Thanksgiving, now they're
playing on Sunday. He is over five hundred ATS with
both Tommy Devido and Daniel Jones playing on extended rest.
But here we are with Drew Locke playing quarterback today
for the Giants. Cold weather at MetLife, which is not
good for Derek Carr. When he's a favorite. In conditions
(16:32):
below forty below fifty degrees, he's one in four ats,
failing to cover by seven point four points per game.
And Derek Carr as a favorite, he's twenty two thirty
nine and two ats as a favorite. That's the worst
mark of any quarterback since two thousand and three. As
(16:52):
a road favorite, Derek Carr is one fourteen and one
ats in sixteen spots. The one lone covery on the
road as a favorite was against the Colts Indoors. Tease
it up. Giants probably cover it by themselves, but I'm
gonna tease it up to nine and a half one
point two units down Bears plus nine Giants plus nine
(17:15):
and a half. Okay, So the official card for today
on Sunday for the Daily Juice Cardinals laying two and
a half at home against the Seahawks Raiders, catching seven
on the road against the Bucks Raiders. Sorry, that should
say Chiefs, not Raiders. Sorry Chiefs and the Chargers under
forty three on Sunday night. But I love the same
(17:36):
game teaser in that game to tease it up to
nine and put the forty three up to forty nine
and go under. And then the teaser official is Bears
plus nine Giants plus nine and a half. I will
talk to you on the live stream at noon Easter
with Andrew Erickson for my player props. They'll give you
guys here plus breakdown every game in line movement. And
Andrew and I were talking about every game on the
(17:56):
card for Sunday. I'll give you picks and plays and
thoughts there and after the game, the late games and
before the Sunday night game on the Discord channel OUP
break down the bracket from a betting perspective for the
College Football National Championship, the first ever twelve team bracket.
We will do that coming up at about five o'clock
Pacific eight pm Eastern time on the Discord channel bettingpros
(18:17):
dot Com slash chat to join Minus Matt Parol fom
mecause all socials at Sports Doc Matt. Every morning, it's
the Daily Juice podcast presented by Draftkicks
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