Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Thursday morning episode of
the Deal Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Perrault. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, and we have hit a little bit
of a cold spell. It's been not a great week
for us here for the last week of July. We've
done well in the month, but not so much coming
up for this week. We had a pretty down day
(00:35):
yesterday one in three down two point eight two units.
Brewers were the play of the day that went down
more than that here in just one second. Phillies on
the money line that lost as well. Unfortunately, player props
continue to be sort of this like you know, one
in one, one in one, one in one. It's just
this ongoing thing. I don't really know why that's been happening,
(00:56):
but that's just the way we've gone with player props.
It's it's been pretty much a one in one night
almost every time we get out there and play it.
But Cubs win the game ten to three over the Brewers.
White Sox beat the Phillies nine to three, so that
results in a losing day for us here. On a Wednesday.
So here is the Major League Baseball trade deadline today,
(01:17):
not betting baseball, given the trades we have already seen,
given that we could have a couple of monsters. Showiatani
left the game last night after what six straight balls,
and we'll see what the actual injury might be to Atani.
So the Dodgers might be active, more active than they
thought they were going to be. If Atani's re injured
again and can't pitch or maybe even can't hit, you
(01:40):
know they're gonna go to the trade deadline and be
incredibly active. The Diamondbacks have got a ton of players
they can trade.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
We'll see what.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
You know, contending teams, Yankees, Red Sox, what do they do?
Are the Twins gonna sell off everybody? You know? What
will the Marlins do with Sandy l Contra? What would
the Twins do with you know, Joe Ryans? All sorts
of pitchers might be moving, might not be moving.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
I don't know. We got burned a bit yesterday.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
With a change in starting pitching that happened because of
a potential trade. So I'm gonna stay away in baseball
today and that and I'm not interested in the WNBA
right now, it's just not really something that I'm doing
well with. So I'm gonna stay awavement. So we're gonna
do college football. I'm gonna give you three more bets
in college football that you guys can make for today,
And if you want to hold off on it, you
(02:23):
want to wait, that's fine, But I've got some logic
as to how we're gonna do it and the reasons
behind why betting now, just to kind of refresh if
you haven't seen where we are or what we have
already bet for the Daily Juice, we have gone a
lot with the Big ten for some interesting reason. It's
not really I don't think it's been on purpose that
(02:43):
we've been so kind of committed and focused on the
Big ten. But you know, I think that there's opportunities
that will present this self, you know, money wise, for
us to be able to jump in with the Big ten.
So right now, first bet was Ohio State over ten
and a half wins at plus one twenty. We took
Penn State under ten and a half wins at mis
one thirty five, and we took Georgia to win the
(03:06):
SEC's championship at plus three sixty. That bet actually has
increased in value. Let me see what that bet at
plus three sixty. I think we've seen some Georgia money
that has come in for the SEC championship, and let
me see for for the SEC.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
For the future sor are we going to roll through that?
Speaker 2 (03:32):
There?
Speaker 1 (03:32):
It is conference winners in the SEC.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
We have plus three sixty plus three thirty plus two
ninety plus two eighty depending on where you are. So
you can SI get Georgia at a pretty good price
at plus three thirty to win the Big ten if
you want to go ahead and trail that at Ohio
State as well, if you want to jump in with
Ohio State and then Penn State under I got another
You know, if I think Ohio State's going over ten
(03:57):
and a half wins, which I do, and Penn State's
going under ten and a half wins, well, the third
team is Michigan. Let's talk about Michigan a little bit here,
and we'll get to their schedule, and then I have
a game I want to break down in week two,
which you might go, what, Well, there's a reason why
I think we should bet right now, because I don't
think this number is going to last for very long.
(04:19):
When it comes to Once we get really into college
football people, we're gonna wake up and realize, like.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Wait, what's the number? This is not numbers too low.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So before we do that, a reminder of the offer
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(04:48):
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Speaker 1 (04:55):
Get seven days for free.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
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Speaker 1 (05:12):
Okay, let's start with Michigan.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Here's the thing, So Penn State under Ohio state over right,
So here's Michigan and what they could do do I
think they run the table. Well, you tell me, you
tell me here when it comes to their schedule. Sorry
about that. Here is the schedule. This is Michigan schedule
(05:38):
on your screen. I'm gonna read it for you guys
on the podcast on the audio. New Mexico at home,
Oklahoma on the road, Central Michigan at home, Nebraska on
the road, Wisconsin at home, USC on the road, Washington
at home, Michigan State on the road, Perdue at home,
(05:59):
Northwest Stern in Maryland on the road. And they end
of the year at home against Ryan Day and Ohio
State and a team that Michigan has simply owned owned.
There's just no debate. They've owned them. Now, different year,
different season. But if you look at Michigan and where
(06:22):
most metrics have them, they have them as maybe the
top defense in college football, like they're gonna be really,
really tough, at least on paper. Right now, Michigan's defense
is going to be one of the best in all
of college football. The schedule strength is wild, because I'm
(06:44):
going to read you what the analytics are spitting out
here from ESPN and what they think the schedule strength
is for Michigan. New Mexico is one hundred and thirtieth,
Oklahoma is sixteenth, Central Michigan is one seventeenth, Nebraska's thirty fourth,
Wisconsin thirty seventh, USC is thirtieth, Washington is thirty ninth,
(07:08):
Michigan state sixty fourth, Perdue one hundred and first, Northwestern
eighty seven seventy from Maryland in number one for Ohio State. Now, okay,
you can go, well, Matt hold on second. You know
there's some guys that they're kind of clothes that aren't horrible,
and they're playing the number one team in the country. Well,
(07:28):
here's the thing. If Sharon Moore can get these guys
rolling and get these guys to buy in with a
brand new quarterback, Bryce Underwood is a gigantic question mark,
but he's the number one player in the entire twenty
twenty five recruiting class. The quarterback from Michigan. He is
being compared to Cam Newton. He's big, he's strong, he's physical,
(07:53):
he can run the football. In Sure, Michigan lost a
lot of talent off of last year's squad, but they've
got some really good players, and they've got to a
bunch of really good players transferring in as well, players
that you're gonna talk about players that we're gonna watch
all year, and if Bryce Underwood can go on the road, Now,
(08:16):
this is gonna be the big question for me with
Bryce Underwood. Can he go on the road? That Oklahoma
game is massive? That is a tough place to play.
Boomer sooner in your ear like crazy. But if they
can win that game, they'll beat Nebraska, they'll beat USC
they'll win all the home games. They'll play Michigan State
(08:38):
on the road, and that is a tricky game. I'm
not gonna lie, but they should. They should win that game. Okay,
they should win that game. And then it comes all
the way down to Ohio State. Can Michigan State go
undefeated with this schedule? No Oregon, no Penn State. All
they're playing is Michigan State in Ohio State. Rival games
(09:00):
for sure. But if they get to Ohio State at
eleven and oh we have an awesome hedge opportunity, an
awesome hedge opportunity to jump in with Michigan to go
undefeated in the regular season. That is a twelve to
one return for Michigan to run the table. That is
worth a flyer to go ahead and take them to
(09:24):
win to go undefeated. To win every game, but maybe
not the Ohio State game and they lose to the.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
Ohio State but they could beat Ohio State.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
They're at home. Okay, Ryan Day's gotta do it. He
can't beat Michigan. He's gotta go on the road to
do it.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Could he do it? Should he do it? Yeah? Probably?
But if they're eleven and oh and.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
If Ohio State's eleven and oh awesome game in Michigan,
very possible both teams to be undefeated, and then we'll
bet Ohio State and kick our heels up and go Okay,
great man a nice profit, four, five, six units, depending
on what we're gonna do. So twelve to one Michigan
to go undefeated in the regular season for one unit.
Now you saw the other one on Michigan to win
(10:06):
the Big Ten championship.
Speaker 1 (10:08):
Look, this is really possible. Okay.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
Again, if they run the table, just get into the game, like,
just get into the game. Just get into the Big
Ten Championship game. Now, last year it was Oregon against
Penn State, and Penn State very might very well be
there again.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Okay, so that would cause this bet to lose.
Speaker 2 (10:25):
But again, if they run the table, they should be
in the Big Ten Championship, depending on how the you know,
things break down and how the whole year unfolds. But
for the most part, you know, I think we're gonna
see Michigan eleven and one, ten and two at worst,
and that might even get them into the Big Ten
Championship game, depending on what the records wind up being.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
Here it's nine to one.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
It's nine to one, Okay, I'm sorry, you've got to
take that on Michigan given what they're gonna look like.
I know they went eight and five last year, but
there's seduble strength. It's outside the top twenty like that
they should as long as Underwood doesn't go belly up,
(11:10):
as long as he plays the way he's supposed to play.
I know the road trips can be treacherous, but I
think not playing Penn State is so big that as
a massive break for Michigan to not play Penn State
and only play Ohio State and then play Ohio State
in the last day, the last game of the regular season.
I'll take the flyer on the nine to one Michigan
(11:31):
to win the Big Ten at plus nine hundred year
for one unit. Finally, we go to the second week
of the college football season Iowa Iowa State. I have
been watching this game for a long time. I've been
to this game multiple times. I think up to seven
times I've seen Iowa in Iowa State play. This is
(11:55):
a weird number. I'm not even gonna go that deep,
but the fact that the number is Iowa State minus
one and a half. You have to lay this right
now before this goes to three. This thing is going
to be bet to three one. I don't like Iowa
this year. Okay, I'm down on the Hawkeyes. I don't
think I was gonna be that good. But it's Syhawk,
(12:17):
so I'll throw the records out. Iowa State de panted
the Hawkeyes last year by scoring twenty points on answered.
Basically not basically did twenty points unanswered to win twenty
to nineteen in last year's matchup. Matt Campbell is a
tremendous coach. But this number is three every year it's three.
(12:39):
Why is it only one and a half?
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Last year?
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Twenty to nineteen. The final score thirty twenty to thirteen.
The final score for.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
In Ames.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Last time I played the game in Jack Trice win
for Iowa ten to seven. The win in Iowa City
for the Cyclones twenty seven to seventeen to win back
in ames for the Hawkeyes back time, back to back
with years because they skipped it because of the COVID year.
But in twenty nineteen, eighteen, seventeen, thirteen to three, forty
(13:16):
four forty one. Do you see the trend here? These
are all one or two score games. The home team
wins a lot, but the road team wins a lot too.
But this is typically a very tight football game that
goes under. Now, we'll see what the totals wind up being,
We'll see what weather comes in, we'll see what. I'm
(13:36):
not betting a total in July, okay, but most likely
the under is going to be a good play here
for the Syhawk game. I just think you go ahead
and jump in with Iowa State now, and let's see
what's up of closing line value we can get. Because
let's just say the number goes over three and it
winds up getting to four, which it could. I mean,
(13:56):
it could go to four. I mean, it's not crazy.
Depends on what Iowa look like in their first game.
If it crosses three and goes to three and a half,
we'll take Iowa plus three and a half and we'll
just try to middle it. We'll have one and a
half and we'll have three and a half and we'll
try to middle it. Like I know, it's not great
to have your money tied up this long, but I
think it's a good play. I think the number is wrong.
(14:18):
I think the numbers should be three. Iowa State minus
three and it's Iowa State minus one and a half.
I think when you're giving a gift like this in
the preseason, I think, get the jump on it. Go okay,
you're gonna give me this number. Now, this number should
be three. This number is always three. Home team favoritboy,
three home team is favorby one and a half in
this game in Iowa State should be the better football team,
(14:39):
because again I'm not high in Iowa this year. I
don't like what Kirk Farrins has got cooking, not a
fan of it. I like what Matt Campbell's got. Let's
go with Iowa State minus one and a half, and
hopefully the number gets bet up to three and a
half and we'll take Iowa during the week of the game.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Here. So it's not really a future.
Speaker 2 (14:56):
It's just kind of grabbing a number right now which
I think is wrong, which is Iowa State minus one
and a half in the Syhawk Trophy Game versus Iowa Okay.
So three plays for college football today. Taking a break
from baseball, gonna cool it off for a little bit.
We'll pick it back up coming up on Friday, Michigan
win win the Big Ten at plus nine hundred for
one unit, Michigan to go undefeated in the regular season
(15:18):
at twelve to one for one unit, and the Syhawk
Game Iowa State Iowa minus one and a half for
the Cyclones. We're gonna lay the one and a half
to start here for one point one units. My name
is Matt Pearl. To guess and following me because all
my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you
guys get your podcasts, it is the Daily Juice.