December 31, 2024 • 13 mins
It's the biggest day of the college football season with 3 massive playoff games. Host Matt Perrault has plays on all 3 of them for the Wednesday episode of the Daily Juice.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a New
Year's Day episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name
is Matt Parol. You guys are calling me because all
of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are
here following a day where I don't know exactly what
we did, but we won't have a winning day officially
at least because of Alabama getting smacked. Alabama did not
show up, so the bad handicap, bad bet for me,
(00:35):
and Kellen de Boor has got a big old problem
on his hands. I was in Alabama for five years.
I covered the Crimson Tide when they had Mike Dubos
and Mike Shula, when they had Dennis Francioni as the
head coach, all leading up to the hiring of arguably
the greatest college football coach of all time, and Alabama
(00:57):
became dominant. I was there when the Tide had multiple
four and five lost seasons and how restless the fan
base got. But that was after after they went through
a somewhat of a decent run. It wasn't like it
was before, like Nick Saban, Bear Bryant is Bear Bryant.
They had some ups and downs, but they had some
(01:19):
coaches that still kept things going, kept the train going,
if you will. There wasn't a nineteen ninety two still
happened for Alabama. That isn't happening right now. For the
Crimson Tide. That was not a good performance for Alabama.
And another loss on the first rookie campaign for Kellen
de Boorr. Yes here comes the recruits, Yes, here comes
(01:42):
the nil money for Alabama. By yikes, they got to
lose to that Michigan team to score thirteen points. Oh my,
Now college basketball was much better if you took both games.
I told you last night on the Jews for the
Richmond Spiders, I told you they were zero to five
at home. A little birdie down here told me to
take Richmond plus three and a half and won the
(02:03):
game outright. And then Creighton got a huge win at
home against Saint John's. I had no clue what to
make of that. That made no sense to me. I
was like, why in the world, I mean, the Jay's
being a dog at home this year. Look, they're going
to struggle to win games on the road, but anytime
they're getting points at home. You have to look at
the Creighton Blue Jays like they just it's one of
the most difficult places to play in the country. Nobody
(02:25):
really wants to talk about it. But that number was wrong.
Saint John should not have been favored in that game.
Jay's win, Jane's cover the plus one. So two and
zero in college basketball if you took the two and
zho place like I talked about on the Jews last night,
but they weren't official. Obviously I bet them, but they
didn't make them. I just made college football the official plays.
And Penn State is kicking off here momentarily up against
Boise State. We'll see how that game goes. I obviously
(02:48):
have a lot going on that game, with Penn State's
laying the number, with Penn State taking the over, taking
the team total of Penn State playing over there. So
I think Penn State scores. I think Drew Ellen's gonna
have a big game, big numbers here. I think this
fifty three the total, it's not going to stun me.
If Penn State scores forty tonight. Okay, now it could
be dead wrong. Maybe Penn State's you know, can't score
(03:10):
it all against Boise But I watched Boise State. I
watched a lot of Penn State. I just think it's
a big old mismatch in the trenches on both sides
of the football. And I don't think Penn State is
going to have much trouble moving the ball themselves through
the air. And frankly, I mean, I think there's just
a couple of matchup nightmares for Boise State here tonight
in the Fiesta Bowl. So we'll see how that game
(03:32):
plays out. Hopefully we get the over correct and it
goes a one in one day if it's going two day,
down a little over two units. And we head into
Wednesday here on a New Year's Day, with three games
to break down in the college football quarter finals. Now
we already have one bet and play here, guys. Okay,
we've already talked about the over for Oregon and Ohio
(03:53):
State over fifty four and a half. Now that number
has moved to fifty five. That number is not gigantic
lee moving, but it did move. And you know, certain
books a r at fifty five and a half now,
depending on what you're looking at. But we have fifty
four and a half. So we opened up at fifty
two and a half, now fifty five and a half.
I still think that bet is good. I like our
(04:18):
I like our number, but I don't hate fifty five.
You can find a fifty five and go over fifty five.
I don't hate that either. You know, fifty four and
a half was the first number game went clearly over
and a thirty two to thirty one final. So I
do lean towards Ohio State to win the game. I
do think Ohio State is playing incredible football. So it's
(04:39):
not going to shock me at all if Ohio State
puts up a big number and Will Howard continues to
throw the football the way he's soling the football, or again,
we need to play a tremendous, tremendous game to beat
Ohio State. Now Here is a theory that I had
going into the college football playoff that we're going to
see if it holds. I made the statement, and you
can bet this if you want. You know, it's too
(04:59):
late for Boise State and for Penn State. But I said,
teams that played in the core in the first round
up against teams that did not play that had a
buy that the first half number was something to look at.
That the rhythm of playing playoff football at home and
the confidence that will have come from winning a playoff
(05:21):
football game at a home will let those teams on
a neutral start faster than teams that had to buy
that have to get used to the intensity and the
speed of playing college football, playoff football. So that means
Texas against Arizona State, that means Notre Dame up against Georgia,
(05:41):
and that means the Ohio State Buckeyes up against Oregon.
Ohio State first half is not a bad bet here tonight.
So watch out Penn State starts against Boise. They get
off to a really fast start. Maybe there's something to
that theory about playing games at home and the way
these teams are going to perform when they've already played
a playoff game under their belt in the bye. I
(06:02):
said it before, I didn't think the bye was always
a great thing for certain teams. Teams like Boise. I
don't think the bye helped all that much. I think
the buy is going to be detrimental to them, and
frankly the same thing for Arizona State. I think the
bie is going to be detrimental. You've allowed Texas to
get a big win over Clemson at home, and now
they get to go to Georgia, where tickets are not
hard to get. There will be Longhorn fans there, but
(06:25):
I think even Arizona State fans know what's about to
happen here. Numbers twelve or twelve and a half. Find
the twelve. I know Arizona State's eleven and two ATS.
I know they've covered six straight games. I know they're
five and two ATS. I know they have won games
against Iowa State by twenty six, Arizona by forty two.
In their last two games, they beat BYU at home
(06:47):
by five. I know they're playing really, really well, but
I just think that having Texas is a really bad matchup.
I think defensively, Texas will slow down Scatobo. I think
they're gonna have a tough time throwing the football without
their number one wide receiver for Arizona State. I just
think Texas has more talent if you take away the
(07:09):
Georgia losses. Okay, they lost to Georgia by fifteen and
lost to Georgia by three on a neutral Okay, you
take away those two games. The only game that really
jumps out where they didn't dominate was Vanderbilt on the road.
Everything else, every other game Texas has won by double digits,
fourteen over Clemson, ten points over Texas A and M,
(07:31):
seventeen over Kentucky, ten over Arkansas, thirty two over Florida. Yeah,
the Vanderbilt game comes in just one time. They won
the game by three, beat Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma on
a neutral by thirty one. You can come through all this,
beat Michigan by nineteen. You can say, Matt, you know
how good is the sec? You know we've seen Illinois
beat South Carolina, we saw Michigan beat Alabama. I'll give
(07:55):
you all that, but how good really is the big twelve? Okay?
My answer to that would be, Okay, Iowa State and
you beat Arizona and I like BYU. We were on
BYU earlier last week. And Kansas State, Central Florida, Oklahoma State,
they lost to Arizona State, lost to Cincinnati, they lost
to Texas Tech. I mean, how good are those teams really?
(08:15):
I just think Texas is too good here. I think
Texas wins the game by double digits. I'll lay the
twelve points because I don't know how many points Arizona
State is going to score. Frankly, I think they can
have a real tough time moving the football here and
they have to run the ball well to be effective.
And frankly, Texas's rush defense is so damn good three
point one yards per rush giving up that's eighth best
(08:37):
in the country. If Arizona State can't run the football. Oh,
and you can't really throw on Texas either they have
the number one opposing yards per past defense or secondary
is so good five point four yards per pass play,
one hundred and fifty seven yards per game giving up
through the air. That's second best in the country for Texas.
I can't touch the over or the under in this
(08:57):
game from a total perspective because I don't think on
state scores. I think it's all Texas in the Peach
Bowl Texas minus twelve for one point one units. And
then lastly, I mean, I think this is just a
hedge bet. Notre Dame now is plus one and a
half up against Georgia. What will happen with Carson Beck
(09:20):
being done? Carson Beck is not going to even play
at all in these playoffs. He's had surgery and he's
declared for the NFL Draft. I was watching Todd McShay
on his show, and he went in on Carson Beck
saying he's talked to scouts, and he's talked to gms
and personnel people in the NFL, and they all think
(09:41):
he made a massive mistake. They think he should stay
in college. They think he should not come out. And
I would agree with him. I'm not a huge Carson
Beck fan. I know Stockton looks good. Okay, he does.
He can run the ball, he's stronger, more physical. But
this is a massive moment. I think it would be
stupid about to not at least take a one unit
(10:02):
hedge here and take the one point five and take
the plus one and a half points with Notre Dame
against Georgia, just in case the kid throws up all
over himself. Okay, we have a six to one ticket
on Georgia to win it all, so we have some
wiggle room here with that, and I think we have
to do it just to protect ourselves here. Okay, it
becomes a five to one bet for Georgia. That's still
(10:24):
really good. If Stockton plays perfect and looks awesome and
they're heading off to the national semi finals. I think
if it's Penn State, I think Georgia would Stockton if
he plays but as well and beats Notre Dame. I
think they will win. They will win that game. They
will beat a Penn State team on the other side
to get to the National Championship game. And then we
can talk about hedging and other times if we want,
or just let it play out and see how the
(10:46):
game goes with Georgia with a five to one ticket
versus a six to one ticket. But that's how I'm
gonna do it. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the
one and a half points. Heck, if Georgia wins by one,
we cash both bets potentially. I mean, so that's that's
what would be deal. But I'm gonna do a little
bit of a head here and I'm gonna go in
at plus one and a half for Notre Dame tonight
(11:06):
taking on a very feisty Georgia team in the Caesars
super Dome in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, where
you have to think Georgia is going to have a
big home field advantage, a lot of fans going down there.
The Irish will travel, but Georgia knows New Orleans really
well and man alive. This is going to be a
wild game to watch for this defense for Georgia. Which
(11:29):
of the defenses will show up for Georgia in this game,
because they're going to need to play really well up
against a running attack for the Irish that looks great
last week, and so I'm very curious again, you know,
Notre Dame's defense could be the answer. I would lean
towards the under in this game. Both these teams are
so defensively focused. Georgia gives up twenty one point eight
(11:51):
points per game, top twenty five in the country. Notre
Dame gives up thirteen point eight, that's top five in
the country. Lean towards the under forty five and a
half in this one. But we're just gonna take the
plus one and a half on a hedge for our
six to one ticket on Georgia to within the national championship.
All right, So plays four today on the first of
the year. As we start twenty twenty five with three
(12:11):
massive college football games, what else will we start with?
Texas minus twelve for one point one units, the Irish
plus one and a half for one point one to
five units, a hedge off of our Georgia future in
Ohio State Oregon over fifty four and a half. I
bet we gave out about a week ago for the
college football semi quarter finals. Rather, we will have the
(12:33):
college football semi final set after New Year's Day. My
name is Matt Parolt. I hope you had an awesome
New Year's Eve into a New Year's Day. First of
the year. Let's have a great year here in twenty
twenty five, I'll go over everything like I mentioned yesterday.
We'll do a full recap of twenty four when I
get back to Vegas. Coming up here in a couple
of days. Mine's Matt Parolt because valmicaus all socials at
(12:54):
Sports Talk Matt every morning. It is the Daily Juice
podcast wherever you guys get your podcasts.
What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a New
Year's Day episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name
is Matt Parol. You guys are calling me because all
of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are
here following a day where I don't know exactly what
we did, but we won't have a winning day officially
at least because of Alabama getting smacked. Alabama did not
show up, so the bad handicap, bad bet for me,
(00:35):
and Kellen de Boor has got a big old problem
on his hands. I was in Alabama for five years.
I covered the Crimson Tide when they had Mike Dubos
and Mike Shula, when they had Dennis Francioni as the
head coach, all leading up to the hiring of arguably
the greatest college football coach of all time, and Alabama
(00:57):
became dominant. I was there when the Tide had multiple
four and five lost seasons and how restless the fan
base got. But that was after after they went through
a somewhat of a decent run. It wasn't like it
was before, like Nick Saban, Bear Bryant is Bear Bryant.
They had some ups and downs, but they had some
(01:19):
coaches that still kept things going, kept the train going,
if you will. There wasn't a nineteen ninety two still
happened for Alabama. That isn't happening right now. For the
Crimson Tide. That was not a good performance for Alabama.
And another loss on the first rookie campaign for Kellen
de Boorr. Yes here comes the recruits, Yes, here comes
(01:42):
the nil money for Alabama. By yikes, they got to
lose to that Michigan team to score thirteen points. Oh my,
Now college basketball was much better if you took both games.
I told you last night on the Jews for the
Richmond Spiders, I told you they were zero to five
at home. A little birdie down here told me to
take Richmond plus three and a half and won the
(02:03):
game outright. And then Creighton got a huge win at
home against Saint John's. I had no clue what to
make of that. That made no sense to me. I
was like, why in the world, I mean, the Jay's
being a dog at home this year. Look, they're going
to struggle to win games on the road, but anytime
they're getting points at home. You have to look at
the Creighton Blue Jays like they just it's one of
the most difficult places to play in the country. Nobody
(02:25):
really wants to talk about it. But that number was wrong.
Saint John should not have been favored in that game.
Jay's win, Jane's cover the plus one. So two and
zero in college basketball if you took the two and
zho place like I talked about on the Jews last night,
but they weren't official. Obviously I bet them, but they
didn't make them. I just made college football the official plays.
And Penn State is kicking off here momentarily up against
Boise State. We'll see how that game goes. I obviously
(02:48):
have a lot going on that game, with Penn State's
laying the number, with Penn State taking the over, taking
the team total of Penn State playing over there. So
I think Penn State scores. I think Drew Ellen's gonna
have a big game, big numbers here. I think this
fifty three the total, it's not going to stun me.
If Penn State scores forty tonight. Okay, now it could
be dead wrong. Maybe Penn State's you know, can't score
(03:10):
it all against Boise But I watched Boise State. I
watched a lot of Penn State. I just think it's
a big old mismatch in the trenches on both sides
of the football. And I don't think Penn State is
going to have much trouble moving the ball themselves through
the air. And frankly, I mean, I think there's just
a couple of matchup nightmares for Boise State here tonight
in the Fiesta Bowl. So we'll see how that game
(03:32):
plays out. Hopefully we get the over correct and it
goes a one in one day if it's going two day,
down a little over two units. And we head into
Wednesday here on a New Year's Day, with three games
to break down in the college football quarter finals. Now
we already have one bet and play here, guys. Okay,
we've already talked about the over for Oregon and Ohio
(03:53):
State over fifty four and a half. Now that number
has moved to fifty five. That number is not gigantic
lee moving, but it did move. And you know, certain
books a r at fifty five and a half now,
depending on what you're looking at. But we have fifty
four and a half. So we opened up at fifty
two and a half, now fifty five and a half.
I still think that bet is good. I like our
(04:18):
I like our number, but I don't hate fifty five.
You can find a fifty five and go over fifty five.
I don't hate that either. You know, fifty four and
a half was the first number game went clearly over
and a thirty two to thirty one final. So I
do lean towards Ohio State to win the game. I
do think Ohio State is playing incredible football. So it's
(04:39):
not going to shock me at all if Ohio State
puts up a big number and Will Howard continues to
throw the football the way he's soling the football, or again,
we need to play a tremendous, tremendous game to beat
Ohio State. Now Here is a theory that I had
going into the college football playoff that we're going to
see if it holds. I made the statement, and you
can bet this if you want. You know, it's too
(04:59):
late for Boise State and for Penn State. But I said,
teams that played in the core in the first round
up against teams that did not play that had a
buy that the first half number was something to look at.
That the rhythm of playing playoff football at home and
the confidence that will have come from winning a playoff
(05:21):
football game at a home will let those teams on
a neutral start faster than teams that had to buy
that have to get used to the intensity and the
speed of playing college football, playoff football. So that means
Texas against Arizona State, that means Notre Dame up against Georgia,
(05:41):
and that means the Ohio State Buckeyes up against Oregon.
Ohio State first half is not a bad bet here tonight.
So watch out Penn State starts against Boise. They get
off to a really fast start. Maybe there's something to
that theory about playing games at home and the way
these teams are going to perform when they've already played
a playoff game under their belt in the bye. I
(06:02):
said it before, I didn't think the bye was always
a great thing for certain teams. Teams like Boise. I
don't think the bye helped all that much. I think
the buy is going to be detrimental to them, and
frankly the same thing for Arizona State. I think the
bie is going to be detrimental. You've allowed Texas to
get a big win over Clemson at home, and now
they get to go to Georgia, where tickets are not
hard to get. There will be Longhorn fans there, but
(06:25):
I think even Arizona State fans know what's about to
happen here. Numbers twelve or twelve and a half. Find
the twelve. I know Arizona State's eleven and two ATS.
I know they've covered six straight games. I know they're
five and two ATS. I know they have won games
against Iowa State by twenty six, Arizona by forty two.
In their last two games, they beat BYU at home
(06:47):
by five. I know they're playing really, really well, but
I just think that having Texas is a really bad matchup.
I think defensively, Texas will slow down Scatobo. I think
they're gonna have a tough time throwing the football without
their number one wide receiver for Arizona State. I just
think Texas has more talent if you take away the
(07:09):
Georgia losses. Okay, they lost to Georgia by fifteen and
lost to Georgia by three on a neutral Okay, you
take away those two games. The only game that really
jumps out where they didn't dominate was Vanderbilt on the road.
Everything else, every other game Texas has won by double digits,
fourteen over Clemson, ten points over Texas A and M,
(07:31):
seventeen over Kentucky, ten over Arkansas, thirty two over Florida. Yeah,
the Vanderbilt game comes in just one time. They won
the game by three, beat Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma on
a neutral by thirty one. You can come through all this,
beat Michigan by nineteen. You can say, Matt, you know
how good is the sec? You know we've seen Illinois
beat South Carolina, we saw Michigan beat Alabama. I'll give
(07:55):
you all that, but how good really is the big twelve? Okay?
My answer to that would be, Okay, Iowa State and
you beat Arizona and I like BYU. We were on
BYU earlier last week. And Kansas State, Central Florida, Oklahoma State,
they lost to Arizona State, lost to Cincinnati, they lost
to Texas Tech. I mean, how good are those teams really?
(08:15):
I just think Texas is too good here. I think
Texas wins the game by double digits. I'll lay the
twelve points because I don't know how many points Arizona
State is going to score. Frankly, I think they can
have a real tough time moving the football here and
they have to run the ball well to be effective.
And frankly, Texas's rush defense is so damn good three
point one yards per rush giving up that's eighth best
(08:37):
in the country. If Arizona State can't run the football. Oh,
and you can't really throw on Texas either they have
the number one opposing yards per past defense or secondary
is so good five point four yards per pass play,
one hundred and fifty seven yards per game giving up
through the air. That's second best in the country for Texas.
I can't touch the over or the under in this
(08:57):
game from a total perspective because I don't think on
state scores. I think it's all Texas in the Peach
Bowl Texas minus twelve for one point one units. And
then lastly, I mean, I think this is just a
hedge bet. Notre Dame now is plus one and a
half up against Georgia. What will happen with Carson Beck
(09:20):
being done? Carson Beck is not going to even play
at all in these playoffs. He's had surgery and he's
declared for the NFL Draft. I was watching Todd McShay
on his show, and he went in on Carson Beck
saying he's talked to scouts, and he's talked to gms
and personnel people in the NFL, and they all think
(09:41):
he made a massive mistake. They think he should stay
in college. They think he should not come out. And
I would agree with him. I'm not a huge Carson
Beck fan. I know Stockton looks good. Okay, he does.
He can run the ball, he's stronger, more physical. But
this is a massive moment. I think it would be
stupid about to not at least take a one unit
(10:02):
hedge here and take the one point five and take
the plus one and a half points with Notre Dame
against Georgia, just in case the kid throws up all
over himself. Okay, we have a six to one ticket
on Georgia to win it all, so we have some
wiggle room here with that, and I think we have
to do it just to protect ourselves here. Okay, it
becomes a five to one bet for Georgia. That's still
(10:24):
really good. If Stockton plays perfect and looks awesome and
they're heading off to the national semi finals. I think
if it's Penn State, I think Georgia would Stockton if
he plays but as well and beats Notre Dame. I
think they will win. They will win that game. They
will beat a Penn State team on the other side
to get to the National Championship game. And then we
can talk about hedging and other times if we want,
or just let it play out and see how the
(10:46):
game goes with Georgia with a five to one ticket
versus a six to one ticket. But that's how I'm
gonna do it. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the
one and a half points. Heck, if Georgia wins by one,
we cash both bets potentially. I mean, so that's that's
what would be deal. But I'm gonna do a little
bit of a head here and I'm gonna go in
at plus one and a half for Notre Dame tonight
(11:06):
taking on a very feisty Georgia team in the Caesars
super Dome in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, where
you have to think Georgia is going to have a
big home field advantage, a lot of fans going down there.
The Irish will travel, but Georgia knows New Orleans really
well and man alive. This is going to be a
wild game to watch for this defense for Georgia. Which
(11:29):
of the defenses will show up for Georgia in this game,
because they're going to need to play really well up
against a running attack for the Irish that looks great
last week, and so I'm very curious again, you know,
Notre Dame's defense could be the answer. I would lean
towards the under in this game. Both these teams are
so defensively focused. Georgia gives up twenty one point eight
(11:51):
points per game, top twenty five in the country. Notre
Dame gives up thirteen point eight, that's top five in
the country. Lean towards the under forty five and a
half in this one. But we're just gonna take the
plus one and a half on a hedge for our
six to one ticket on Georgia to within the national championship.
All right, So plays four today on the first of
the year. As we start twenty twenty five with three
(12:11):
massive college football games, what else will we start with?
Texas minus twelve for one point one units, the Irish
plus one and a half for one point one to
five units, a hedge off of our Georgia future in
Ohio State Oregon over fifty four and a half. I
bet we gave out about a week ago for the
college football semi quarter finals. Rather, we will have the
(12:33):
college football semi final set after New Year's Day. My
name is Matt Parolt. I hope you had an awesome
New Year's Eve into a New Year's Day. First of
the year. Let's have a great year here in twenty
twenty five, I'll go over everything like I mentioned yesterday.
We'll do a full recap of twenty four when I
get back to Vegas. Coming up here in a couple
of days. Mine's Matt Parolt because valmicaus all socials at
(12:54):
Sports Talk Matt every morning. It is the Daily Juice
podcast wherever you guys get your podcasts.
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