June 11, 2025 • 14 mins
A brutal 0-3 night for host Matt Perrault has put the picks into a hole as we head towards Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Matt is back with 3 bets for basketball and 1 MLB play for the Wednesday episode of the Daily Juice.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Wednesday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, And yesterday was a disaster for numerous reasons.
The picks were awful. But I got hurt first thing
in the morning. So I have a split level house,
(00:37):
and while I was walking around with socks on, and
I was going downstairs, and while my house we just
had cleaned the stairs, and so I went vertical and
I fell down about eight flights or eight eight steps,
and in the process of trying to break my fall,
(00:58):
I hurt my peck pretty good. So not a serious tear,
not something that needs to be surgically repaired or anything,
but a pretty significant and pretty painful injury. So that
whole day stunk, like just we just forget about tomorrow.
I mean, on top of the next they forgot to
post it. Sorry, Hold on, you're getting a bank a
(01:20):
blank screen on as to what we did yesterday, but
probably keep it with blank because it was zero to
three down four units the Pirates. I mean, this was
an incredible day because the Pirates faced Sandy al Contra,
who went six innings no earned runs, like the best
start all year for Sandy l Contra. The Red Sox
(01:42):
and the Rays. Red Sox had so many chances to
score more runs than they did. It was two to
one after five. I'm done with that bet for a
little bit. And then the Giants won the game. They
scored four runs in the ninth inning.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
They came all the way back, keep all the way back,
won the game.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Didn't cover on the run on oh and three, down
four units. So that's a pretty nice little hole that
I put us in for the week. So now it's
time to climb out right. Got to find our way
out of it. I normally bounce back pretty well, so
let's see if I'm able to bounce back and get
ourselves some w's here, because that was not what we
were looking for out of the Tuesday Daily Juice with
(02:21):
an oh and three record, down four units.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
But right back on the horse we go here for
to day.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Before we get into the picks for today in Game
three of the NBA Finals, that's remind you about the
Paul Pierce jersey, which is currently available if you guys
want to enter to win, do it.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
It's pretty easy. It's free.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Pristine Auction dot Com. They're giving you this chance Betting
Pros YouTube channel. You must be a subscriber, that's number one.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Number two.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
You must make a comment on this very video and
that is how you will be entered. Turn on the
notifications so you know when we drop a new video
and when we announce the winner. Coming up in the
first week of July for the Paul Pierce signed jersey
from our friends at Pristine Auction. Also, we are back
tonight with the NBA Player prop contest that is still
(03:11):
going on. The finals prize is a signed the Honest jersey.
You're making picks to compete for prizes every round, including
the finals right now, and a grand prize of an
Alan Iverson signed jersey for.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Those of you who are doing it throughout the entire playoffs.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
This is all free play on the Betting Pros app
or by going to Bettingpros dot com Slash Playoffs. That's
Bettingpros dot Com Slash Playoffs. Okay, Game three NBA Finals.
We've done very well with the NBA. Here is how
I'm going to play this. It's very similar. It's very
(03:47):
similar about what's gonna happen in game one? Or we
bet in game one? Okay, I don't know what to
do with the game, So let me give you some
stats here and Evan Abrams from the Action Network put
together a unbelievable article that he put out yesterday about
where the Thunder are. The Thunder are own seven against
the spread in the playoffs on the road.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
They're the first team to.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Lose six consecutive playoff road games against the number since
the two thousand and eight Celtics, who also started own
six ats. This is own seven ats. But they started
oh to six and then turned around and went five
and one on the road to the title. Now we
know the Thunder can't do that. They can't go five
and oh. They won't have five more road games this season,
(04:30):
But the Thunder's oh and seven mark on the road
through the conference finals. In the last twenty years, we
haven't seen an oh and seven against the spread road
streak for any team at any point in the postseason,
regardless of game or series.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Like this is his historic stuff. Uh.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
In the span, we've seen two game three road favorites
in the finals with a series tied one one the
twenty three Nuggets were favored by three and a half
on the road against the Heat they won by fifteen,
and the twenty fifteen Warriors were favored by two against
the Cavaliers and they lost by five. Overall, the Thunder
(05:16):
the first team to have no road playoff against the
spread winning games entering the NBA Finals since the merger
of nineteen seventy six. In nineteen seventy seven, I see that,
and I go, okay, bet the Pacers. But in the
regular season, Oklahoma City was twenty five thirteen and two
(05:37):
on the road. In the playoffs, that's the best mark
for any team during the regular season, and then the
playoffs and everything fell apart. So like, I don't know
the best for any team during the regular season. Number
one road record ats wise in the NBA, and now
they can't cover a road game to save their life.
(05:58):
So I'm not doing anything with that game or the total.
I'm betting first quarter, just like Game one. I'm betting
first quarter Game one here in Indiana. I expect an
insane atmosphere, Pacers going crazy.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
They're catching a.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Point and a half. I get one and a half
points for the Pacers. They can be tied at the
after one quarter and we're good. We recover. I expect
the Pacers crowd to be electric. I expect the whole
environment all day long. I think, think from the jump,
take the zig zag theory, whatever you want to jump
(06:31):
into here, Pacers plus one and a half in the
first quarter. It's the only bet I'm making sider total,
just like Game one, only bet I'm making this time
taking the home team.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
It's the Pacers.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Game one home team was the thunder coming in taking
the Pacers here, just because I expect a very excited crowd,
loud atmosphere in a better performance in the first quarter
for the Pacers here. First quarter plus one and a
half for one point one units. Two NBA player props.
The rope at cheat sheet once again liked Obi Toppin.
(07:03):
Obi Toppin, we bet it. In game one he hit,
we didn't bet it. In game two he was bad.
He hit five points in assists in game number one,
sorry two. In game one he had nineteen. The number
was ten and a half. The projection is for thirteen
for Obi Toppin. This is a five star play is
(07:24):
a twenty five percent inspected value with a cover probability
of sixty eight percent for Obi Toppin to go over
ten and a half points and assists tonight. The game
two performance snapped a streak of three straight games against
the Knicks and two against the Pacers or two against
the against the Thunder where he wound up going over
(07:47):
one agagainsis two against Knicks, one against the Thunder going over.
His points and assists eight and a half, eight and
a half, nine and a half all over, books went
at eleven and a half and he had five three points,
two assists. In game one he had seventeen points and
two assists. I think Obi Toppin gets at home, he
plays better, he has a better mark and will go
(08:09):
with Obi.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Top in points and assists.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
I don't mind points in rebounds, but it's thirteen and
a half for points in rebounds. Essentially we're betting points
for Obi Top and he'll have one assist or two
assists in the game. You're essentially betting points in rebounds.
Very similar marks, very similar performances. He had three in
a row at twelve and a half, ten and a
(08:31):
half and ten and a half, not the line fifteen,
twenty four and twenty two, and those three games where
points and assists went over, and then he had eight.
In game number two he had three points in five rebounds,
So I don't mind it if you want to go
ahead and jump in on that. It's just a different probability.
It's a sixty six percent coverability. The projection basically is
(08:53):
two over, so it's the same thirteen and a half
projected to sixteen and a twenty three percent expected value.
But both plays are five star plays, so you can
got to take.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Your pick with this.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I'm gonna do points and assists because it's a lower
number and it's ten and a half, and I think
there's a decent shot that he's going to wind up
scoring ten points. Eleven points, okay, he had eleven, eighteen
and seventeen, so you get the assists mark just because
he had a couple. He had two in game one,
Game two, he had two in game two or game
(09:24):
one rather so like he he comes up with ten
points and two assists, we cover, okay, And that's not
a crazy line. In fact, you know it's less than
the projection which is thirteen. So ten points and three
assists and we get there, obe topping over ten and
a half points and assists here today at minus ooh
that mass one to eighteen second prop bet. Lou Dort
(09:47):
has been quiet quiet in Game two four points and
assists for him in game one sixteen. Now he's been
kind of up and down with this. Against the Timberwolves,
he wound up in the last game, Game six he
wound up with twelve points, four assists, four rebounds in
(10:07):
one assists, so he had thirteen over eight and a
half for him in game one of the series. The
loss he had it was ten and a half the
number he had sixteen fifteen points and one assists. But
Game two totally different story. Three points, one assist. He
went one for three from behind the three point line.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
They didn't need them.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
They won one twenty three to one oh seven. But
I think as we go back on the road here,
I think they're gonna need lou Dort to score more
and need loud Doort to hit open shots when he
gets them. In Game one he went five for nine
from behind the three point line. In Game two he
went one for three. I expected him to take a
(10:48):
bunch more shots here and the numbers eight and a half.
The projection from the prop bet Chichi is fourteen points
in assists, seventy nine percent cover probability, a thirty nine
percent expected value play. That's up to forty percent. That's
the highest, so nearly the highest, and a five star
play here for lou Dort, I like this. Lou Dort
(11:11):
over eight and a half at minus one thirty Fandels
got this. They're the lowest in the market at the moment,
heaviest juice. I don't really care. I want to win here.
I want to get this.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
I want to get this w lou Dort over.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Eight and a half points and assists tonight at minus
one thirty. Okay, so are plays for today. Let me
pull that up real fast. That's our other one. The
plays for today on a Wednesday, not on a Tuesday.
Obi Topping over ten and a half points and assists
at minus one eighteen, lou Dort over eight and a
(11:45):
half points and assists at minus one thirty, and the
Pacers in the first quarter at plus one and half.
Like I mentioned, I'm not going to bet the Red
Sox today. I'll do it personally but not officially, just
because it's Walker Buehler. It should go over four and
a half runs in the first but it's nine and
a half juice to the under. The weather's been really
(12:07):
bad in Boston, and I think that's contributed to the
lack of offense for the Rays. It's been cold in
raw It's been bad baseball. Weather hasn't been fun to
hit a baseball going one hundred miles an hour. So
I'm gonna stay away from that because I do think
the weather's factoring in here a bit with the Red
Sox and the Rays. So I'm gonna stay away from that.
But the Giants came back and scored four runs in
the ninth inning. They won six to five. They should
(12:29):
have covered on the run line. I mean they should
have been doing that the whole game. The Rockies can't
pitch like we know it's Freeland Day. On top of that,
Rockies are not a good baseball team. Okay, Giants have
won what six games in a row. Now, let's go
with the Giants again. If we miss this on the
run line, I won't bet it again on Thursday. I'll
stay away from baseball for the rest of the year.
(12:50):
Rest of the week rather because clearly baseball has not
been good and we have hockey tomorrow and other stuff
to bet, so I'm not going to jump in on that.
But let's say the Giants on the run line against
the Rockies at Mine one thirty five for one point
three five units. So those are our plays for a Wednesday,
hopefully a bounce back spot for us after a rough day.
(13:13):
We haven't had an zero to three down four units
in a while.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
That's but as I.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Said last night, we tempted the gods by bragging about
the play of the day. I knew that was possible
that we were going to have to miss, just because
when you do that, the gambling gods do not appreciate
any type of braggadocious behavior. When you do that, you
get hit. So it was coming. I said, Look, you
might lose three in a row for plays of the
day eight and two now in the month of June
(13:38):
ten and two or eleven in two now over our
last thirteen plays, Is that right? No? It was eight
eleven twelve, Yeah, ten and two over the last twelve
plays for the play of the day minus Matt Parolch.
You guys are following me across all my socials at
Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
It is the Daily Juice
What's up, guys?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
How are you welcome into a Wednesday morning episode of
the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt. You
guys can follow me across all of my socials at
Sports Talk Matt, And yesterday was a disaster for numerous reasons.
The picks were awful. But I got hurt first thing
in the morning. So I have a split level house,
(00:37):
and while I was walking around with socks on, and
I was going downstairs, and while my house we just
had cleaned the stairs, and so I went vertical and
I fell down about eight flights or eight eight steps,
and in the process of trying to break my fall,
(00:58):
I hurt my peck pretty good. So not a serious tear,
not something that needs to be surgically repaired or anything,
but a pretty significant and pretty painful injury. So that
whole day stunk, like just we just forget about tomorrow.
I mean, on top of the next they forgot to
post it. Sorry, Hold on, you're getting a bank a
(01:20):
blank screen on as to what we did yesterday, but
probably keep it with blank because it was zero to
three down four units the Pirates. I mean, this was
an incredible day because the Pirates faced Sandy al Contra,
who went six innings no earned runs, like the best
start all year for Sandy l Contra. The Red Sox
(01:42):
and the Rays. Red Sox had so many chances to
score more runs than they did. It was two to
one after five. I'm done with that bet for a
little bit. And then the Giants won the game. They
scored four runs in the ninth inning.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
They came all the way back, keep all the way back,
won the game.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Didn't cover on the run on oh and three, down
four units. So that's a pretty nice little hole that
I put us in for the week. So now it's
time to climb out right. Got to find our way
out of it. I normally bounce back pretty well, so
let's see if I'm able to bounce back and get
ourselves some w's here, because that was not what we
were looking for out of the Tuesday Daily Juice with
(02:21):
an oh and three record, down four units.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
But right back on the horse we go here for
to day.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Before we get into the picks for today in Game
three of the NBA Finals, that's remind you about the
Paul Pierce jersey, which is currently available if you guys
want to enter to win, do it.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
It's pretty easy. It's free.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Pristine Auction dot Com. They're giving you this chance Betting
Pros YouTube channel. You must be a subscriber, that's number one.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Number two.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
You must make a comment on this very video and
that is how you will be entered. Turn on the
notifications so you know when we drop a new video
and when we announce the winner. Coming up in the
first week of July for the Paul Pierce signed jersey
from our friends at Pristine Auction. Also, we are back
tonight with the NBA Player prop contest that is still
(03:11):
going on. The finals prize is a signed the Honest jersey.
You're making picks to compete for prizes every round, including
the finals right now, and a grand prize of an
Alan Iverson signed jersey for.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
Those of you who are doing it throughout the entire playoffs.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
This is all free play on the Betting Pros app
or by going to Bettingpros dot com Slash Playoffs. That's
Bettingpros dot Com Slash Playoffs. Okay, Game three NBA Finals.
We've done very well with the NBA. Here is how
I'm going to play this. It's very similar. It's very
(03:47):
similar about what's gonna happen in game one? Or we
bet in game one? Okay, I don't know what to
do with the game, So let me give you some
stats here and Evan Abrams from the Action Network put
together a unbelievable article that he put out yesterday about
where the Thunder are. The Thunder are own seven against
the spread in the playoffs on the road.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
They're the first team to.
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Lose six consecutive playoff road games against the number since
the two thousand and eight Celtics, who also started own
six ats. This is own seven ats. But they started
oh to six and then turned around and went five
and one on the road to the title. Now we
know the Thunder can't do that. They can't go five
and oh. They won't have five more road games this season,
(04:30):
But the Thunder's oh and seven mark on the road
through the conference finals. In the last twenty years, we
haven't seen an oh and seven against the spread road
streak for any team at any point in the postseason,
regardless of game or series.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Like this is his historic stuff. Uh.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
In the span, we've seen two game three road favorites
in the finals with a series tied one one the
twenty three Nuggets were favored by three and a half
on the road against the Heat they won by fifteen,
and the twenty fifteen Warriors were favored by two against
the Cavaliers and they lost by five. Overall, the Thunder
(05:16):
the first team to have no road playoff against the
spread winning games entering the NBA Finals since the merger
of nineteen seventy six. In nineteen seventy seven, I see that,
and I go, okay, bet the Pacers. But in the
regular season, Oklahoma City was twenty five thirteen and two
(05:37):
on the road. In the playoffs, that's the best mark
for any team during the regular season, and then the
playoffs and everything fell apart. So like, I don't know
the best for any team during the regular season. Number
one road record ats wise in the NBA, and now
they can't cover a road game to save their life.
(05:58):
So I'm not doing anything with that game or the total.
I'm betting first quarter, just like Game one. I'm betting
first quarter Game one here in Indiana. I expect an
insane atmosphere, Pacers going crazy.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
They're catching a.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Point and a half. I get one and a half
points for the Pacers. They can be tied at the
after one quarter and we're good. We recover. I expect
the Pacers crowd to be electric. I expect the whole
environment all day long. I think, think from the jump,
take the zig zag theory, whatever you want to jump
(06:31):
into here, Pacers plus one and a half in the
first quarter. It's the only bet I'm making sider total,
just like Game one, only bet I'm making this time
taking the home team.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
It's the Pacers.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Game one home team was the thunder coming in taking
the Pacers here, just because I expect a very excited crowd,
loud atmosphere in a better performance in the first quarter
for the Pacers here. First quarter plus one and a
half for one point one units. Two NBA player props.
The rope at cheat sheet once again liked Obi Toppin.
(07:03):
Obi Toppin, we bet it. In game one he hit,
we didn't bet it. In game two he was bad.
He hit five points in assists in game number one,
sorry two. In game one he had nineteen. The number
was ten and a half. The projection is for thirteen
for Obi Toppin. This is a five star play is
(07:24):
a twenty five percent inspected value with a cover probability
of sixty eight percent for Obi Toppin to go over
ten and a half points and assists tonight. The game
two performance snapped a streak of three straight games against
the Knicks and two against the Pacers or two against
the against the Thunder where he wound up going over
(07:47):
one agagainsis two against Knicks, one against the Thunder going over.
His points and assists eight and a half, eight and
a half, nine and a half all over, books went
at eleven and a half and he had five three points,
two assists. In game one he had seventeen points and
two assists. I think Obi Toppin gets at home, he
plays better, he has a better mark and will go
(08:09):
with Obi.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
Top in points and assists.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
I don't mind points in rebounds, but it's thirteen and
a half for points in rebounds. Essentially we're betting points
for Obi Top and he'll have one assist or two
assists in the game. You're essentially betting points in rebounds.
Very similar marks, very similar performances. He had three in
a row at twelve and a half, ten and a
(08:31):
half and ten and a half, not the line fifteen,
twenty four and twenty two, and those three games where
points and assists went over, and then he had eight.
In game number two he had three points in five rebounds,
So I don't mind it if you want to go
ahead and jump in on that. It's just a different probability.
It's a sixty six percent coverability. The projection basically is
(08:53):
two over, so it's the same thirteen and a half
projected to sixteen and a twenty three percent expected value.
But both plays are five star plays, so you can
got to take.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
Your pick with this.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
I'm gonna do points and assists because it's a lower
number and it's ten and a half, and I think
there's a decent shot that he's going to wind up
scoring ten points. Eleven points, okay, he had eleven, eighteen
and seventeen, so you get the assists mark just because
he had a couple. He had two in game one,
Game two, he had two in game two or game
(09:24):
one rather so like he he comes up with ten
points and two assists, we cover, okay, And that's not
a crazy line. In fact, you know it's less than
the projection which is thirteen. So ten points and three
assists and we get there, obe topping over ten and
a half points and assists here today at minus ooh
that mass one to eighteen second prop bet. Lou Dort
(09:47):
has been quiet quiet in Game two four points and
assists for him in game one sixteen. Now he's been
kind of up and down with this. Against the Timberwolves,
he wound up in the last game, Game six he
wound up with twelve points, four assists, four rebounds in
(10:07):
one assists, so he had thirteen over eight and a
half for him in game one of the series. The
loss he had it was ten and a half the
number he had sixteen fifteen points and one assists. But
Game two totally different story. Three points, one assist. He
went one for three from behind the three point line.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
They didn't need them.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
They won one twenty three to one oh seven. But
I think as we go back on the road here,
I think they're gonna need lou Dort to score more
and need loud Doort to hit open shots when he
gets them. In Game one he went five for nine
from behind the three point line. In Game two he
went one for three. I expected him to take a
(10:48):
bunch more shots here and the numbers eight and a half.
The projection from the prop bet Chichi is fourteen points
in assists, seventy nine percent cover probability, a thirty nine
percent expected value play. That's up to forty percent. That's
the highest, so nearly the highest, and a five star
play here for lou Dort, I like this. Lou Dort
(11:11):
over eight and a half at minus one thirty Fandels
got this. They're the lowest in the market at the moment,
heaviest juice. I don't really care. I want to win here.
I want to get this.
Speaker 1 (11:20):
I want to get this w lou Dort over.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Eight and a half points and assists tonight at minus
one thirty. Okay, so are plays for today. Let me
pull that up real fast. That's our other one. The
plays for today on a Wednesday, not on a Tuesday.
Obi Topping over ten and a half points and assists
at minus one eighteen, lou Dort over eight and a
(11:45):
half points and assists at minus one thirty, and the
Pacers in the first quarter at plus one and half.
Like I mentioned, I'm not going to bet the Red
Sox today. I'll do it personally but not officially, just
because it's Walker Buehler. It should go over four and
a half runs in the first but it's nine and
a half juice to the under. The weather's been really
(12:07):
bad in Boston, and I think that's contributed to the
lack of offense for the Rays. It's been cold in
raw It's been bad baseball. Weather hasn't been fun to
hit a baseball going one hundred miles an hour. So
I'm gonna stay away from that because I do think
the weather's factoring in here a bit with the Red
Sox and the Rays. So I'm gonna stay away from that.
But the Giants came back and scored four runs in
the ninth inning. They won six to five. They should
(12:29):
have covered on the run line. I mean they should
have been doing that the whole game. The Rockies can't
pitch like we know it's Freeland Day. On top of that,
Rockies are not a good baseball team. Okay, Giants have
won what six games in a row. Now, let's go
with the Giants again. If we miss this on the
run line, I won't bet it again on Thursday. I'll
stay away from baseball for the rest of the year.
(12:50):
Rest of the week rather because clearly baseball has not
been good and we have hockey tomorrow and other stuff
to bet, so I'm not going to jump in on that.
But let's say the Giants on the run line against
the Rockies at Mine one thirty five for one point
three five units. So those are our plays for a Wednesday,
hopefully a bounce back spot for us after a rough day.
(13:13):
We haven't had an zero to three down four units
in a while.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
That's but as I.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Said last night, we tempted the gods by bragging about
the play of the day. I knew that was possible
that we were going to have to miss, just because
when you do that, the gambling gods do not appreciate
any type of braggadocious behavior. When you do that, you
get hit. So it was coming. I said, Look, you
might lose three in a row for plays of the
day eight and two now in the month of June
(13:38):
ten and two or eleven in two now over our
last thirteen plays, Is that right? No? It was eight
eleven twelve, Yeah, ten and two over the last twelve
plays for the play of the day minus Matt Parolch.
You guys are following me across all my socials at
Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
It is the Daily Juice
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