September 2, 2025 • 19 mins
The NFL is back and host Matt Perrault is ready to fire on Week 1. Find out the plays on the latest epsiode of The Daily Juice presented by Hard Rock Bet!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Wants up. Guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are trending
in the right direction for a good day. On Tuesday.
The Red Sox just won and they got the run line.
How I have no flip an idea how that's possible.
(00:36):
But that's a one unit win for the Red Sox.
Toronto is well on its way. They're up by three
runs in the eighth against the Reds, so barring a
collapse there, it'll be another unit one there. It'll be
a two and oho start to the night on Tuesday.
And then the Yankees are up to nothing in the
fourth over the Astros, so we'll need some help there
to get over seven and a half. But it looks
like a two and one day for us coming up.
(00:57):
So a winning day, a two and one day for
us on a Tuesday. Now, you guys know, I have
surgery coming up on Thursday. I have too many bets
to do it in one podcast. I was gonna do
one mega podcast. That's ridiculous. It'll be an hour okay,
because there's bets on Thursday, there's bets on Friday, there's
bets on Saturday, there's bets on Sunday. It's four days.
(01:18):
It's a million bets. Can't be done. So I'm breaking
into two parts. This is part A Thursday Friday. Okay,
Thursday Friday. Then tomorrow we will tape for Thursday morning.
That'll be for Saturday and Sunday, all right, So those
will be the official plays that will take us to
basically when I come back on Monday, Torell Furman is
(01:42):
going to have your daily Bets for you for Friday morning,
Saturday morning, Sunday morning. So his plays, but they're not
counting for the Daily Juice. So I'm gonna give you
the Daily Juice plays official plays today Thursday, Friday, and
then coming up tomorrow for Saturday and Sunday. Sense we
have two NFL games Thursday Friday. We got to get
(02:03):
action going on that. It's the NFL. So I've made
some bets tonight, got some plays for you guys. Coming
up now. We got so much to announce. We have
a new title sponsor, hard Rock Bet welcome more on
them here in just one second, our app. We just
redid it. The app is unbelievable. Check it out. We
(02:26):
have completely streamlined it. If you haven't seen it yet,
go check it out. If you have the app, make
sure you go to the app store upgrade. Make sure
you get your your update. I should say not upgrade
update makes you update. Okay, so you get the latest
version of the Betting Pros app. It's very cool. Tell
me what you think in the comment section and that
(02:48):
could be how you very well win the Tyreek Hill jersey.
This is available autographed Tyreek Hill Dolphins jersey for the
month of September. Very cool. How to get it Subscribe
to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and leave a comment.
Go check the app out, come back and tell me
what you think, what needs to be improved, what you
want more of, what you want less of on the app.
(03:10):
But it's very neat and we want to hear from
you guys in the comment section and that could very
well wing you that signed Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins jersey.
Thanks to our friends at Pristineauction dot com. Now for
our friends at hard Rock. This is awesome and this
is how when you guys have options as to what
(03:30):
to do where to spend your money, and where to bet.
This is where we say thank you because hard Rock
is now the title sponsor presenting sponsor of the Daily Juice.
Everybody knows about the hard Rock hotels and casinos. Now
you can can use the top rated hard Rock Bet
sportsbook to place all your bets this NFL season and beyond.
(03:53):
Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in
the state of Florida. It is also available in Arizona, Ohio,
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado, with Nevada
very closely coming when the hard Rock Bet on the Strip.
Hard Rock opens up with their signature guitar that is
(04:16):
going to be part of the Las Vegas skyline very
very soon. You could also play hard Rock Bet online
for their casino if you were in New Jersey. So
we're gonna start using hard Rock Bet lines here for
the Daily Juice and other betting pros shows. Plus, it
looks like we're heading to Florida. I know people at
(04:38):
hard Rock Bet. I had the hard Rock in Florida.
We might be doing live shows, I don't know, and
on location. Daily Juice. I've been talking about that for
literally two years that we should do an on location
live Daily Juice trip for you guys and me. We go,
we hang out, we watch games, we bet games the
Daily Juice. Would you guys come to hard Rock to flow?
(05:00):
Would you guys be down if we did a live
show for the Daily Juice. I mean it would be fun.
I would tape it live, obviously, but I think it
would be fun for all of us to hang out
together and watch games and bet games together. So that's
possible for us to do that at hard Rock properties
in Florida as we gear up for the NFL season.
Sign up for hard Rock Bet and make a five
(05:21):
dollars bet and you'll get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. If you win, head over to hard
Rock Bet and sign up. Make your first deposit two
day payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered
by the Seminal Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by
Seminal hard Rock Digital, LLC and in all other states,
(05:44):
must be twenty one plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and
conditions supply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one hundred
Admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know
has a gambling problem and want help, call one eight
hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one hundred
gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Okay,
(06:10):
let's get to these plays coming up for today. It
is going to be and get comfortable for a second
because we gottat to talk about. Okay, let's start with
the Eagles and the Cowboys. You guys know how I
feel about the Cowboys. They're now seven to one. Okay,
I got plus six fifty. It's seven to one at
certain books to win the NFC East. Everyone thinks I'm
(06:31):
Looney Tunes bonkers. Okay, fine, Are the Eagles gonna lose
out of the gate? I don't think so. But eight ooh,
I don't know. That's tough. If the Eagles get down,
can they come back? I don't know. But if the
Cowboys get down, it can get to be a blowout
because they're gonna pass even more. And that concerns me
(06:54):
so here's what I think. The Cowboys aren't gonna stop
anybody this year. Okay, the Eagles I think will win
out of the gate. Banner and I a lot of
emotion in the building. Everyone's healthy. I think the Eagles
are going to have a hard time this year because
I think they're going to suffer some pretty big injuries.
They were very good last year with their injury luck.
(07:17):
Sakuon Barkley, a walking injury for the New York Giants,
never got hurt. I will be stunned if Sakuon Barkley
does not get hurt this year. Jalen Hurts has avoided
really major injuries. For a guy that gets hit as
much as he does, He's avoided major injuries, which is
somewhat shocking given what his career has looked like. I
(07:38):
don't think they're gonna have the same type of luck
on the offensive line or the defensive line that they
have had. But it's Game one, and in Game one,
do I think the Eagles lose to the Cowboys out
of the gate? I don't. The Micah Parsons thing also
makes it a little bit problematic because I think the
defense might need some time. I like Matt Eberflus a
lot as the decoordinator. I think he's going to cause
(07:59):
turnovers a lot this year, and even without Micah Parsons.
I think that's why. I think Ebraflus and company were like, Hey,
look at we can play defense without him. We're gonna
be okay without having Micah Parsons round. Now, he's a
great player. Everybody's worth forty seven million dollars. I don't
know he's getting a shot in his back already before
he plays a single game for the Packers. So I
(08:21):
like Ibraflus. I think Schottennheimer might be a decent head coach.
Dak's gonna throw the ball a ton. I think he's
got weapons, as we know, all over the field. So
I think both teams are going to score, but I
think the Eagles will win the game. So what am
I gonna do? Look at, If you're new and you
don't like teasers, you're not gonna like me. During football season,
(08:42):
I am obsessed with same game teasers. It's just been
my thing. Okay. Does it make it more difficult to
win sometimes? Yes? Does it make it more fun? Yes?
Am I playing in week one out of the gate
game one? Yes? Could that be stupid? Sure, I don't care.
Here's what we're doing, all right. Play one on Philly
from eight down to two six point same game teaser
(09:06):
Philly minus two, and we're taking the total down to
forty one and a half, down from forty seven and
a half down to forty one and a half, and
we're gonna bet over. I think both teams are going
to score. It's minus one twenty at DraftKings one point
two units down. Same game teaser Philly minus two over
(09:27):
forty one and a half from minus one twenty for
the first bet of the NFL football season, same game
prop bet time. Let's talk about DeVante Smith. DeVante Smith
I think could have a really big year. I think
the Eagles are gonna throw the ball more than what
they did last year because I think they know that
Sakuon Barkley is on borrow time right now and they
(09:49):
don't want to run him nearly as much as they
ran him last year. DeVante Smith, I think could have
a really big year for this Eagles team. Reception wise,
DeVante Smith, it's only four and a half. It's a
fifty six percent cover probability. It's a five star rated play.
By the betting pros app it's a plus twenty six
expected value. The projection is for five, which is pretty
(10:12):
much what he had six, five or four catches every
single game. If he gets five we cash, he gets
six we cash, he gets four. We miss. But against
the Cowboys back in week seventeen, a forty one to
seven win for the Eagles over the Cowboys, he had
six catches for one hundred and twenty yards and two
(10:32):
touchdowns in a game against Dallas. Previously, back on week
in Week ten on the road at Dallas, a thirty
four to six win for the Eagles, he only had
two receptions fourteen receiving yards. He wasn't really a big
part of the offense, but most games he is. Most
games in particularly last year early he had seven catches.
(10:53):
In the first three games of the season, he had seven,
to seven and seven for this Eagles offense. It's a
good price here at plus or sorry minus one oh three,
minus one oh four, one o five, depending on where
you're gonna look at this. We're gonna go with a
full unit play on this because well we're this far
(11:14):
out and I don't want to give you with a
thousand bets and I'm gonna I'm gonna not do the
half unit thing for a little bit. It may burn me, okay,
but prop betting wise, I'm gonna bet full units on
prop bets for a little bit using the prop bet
cheat sheet and the prop bet analyzer and see if
we can start the NFL year and what we can
do with that, because we might. It could get hot,
(11:37):
It could set us up for a really big year
in the NFL. So DeVante Smith over four and a
half receptions for one point zero three units. So Philly
minus two over forty one and a half. Same game
teaser DeVante Smith over four and a half receptions at
MIUS one oh three for one point zero three units.
(11:59):
Those are the bets for Thursday. Now to the bets
for Friday. We're going to Brazil. The Chiefs are taking
on the Chargers. This is a home game for the Chargers.
I hate this, and I mean I hate this. I
cannot believe that this game is being played in Brazil.
Hopefully the field will be in better shape than it
was last year when the Eagles and the Packers played
(12:21):
in this game, Casey is favored by three. The total
is up to forty six here between these teams, I
am not going to play the full game total. Instead,
I'm gonna look at the first half. Patrick Mahomes did
not play very much in the preseason. Neither did Justin Herbert.
I think the defenses for both these teams are going
(12:43):
to be really far ahead of the offenses. Early second
half might be a different story, but at least in
the first half, I actually think this game is going
to be a pretty slow, pretty low scoring affair where
both defenses really take notice and take notes. I'm gonna
play the first half under for the Chiefs and the Chargers.
(13:03):
Unders in game one have been very profitable. Unders in
the first half have been very profitable. You can bind
this game being in Brazil. You can bind these teams
both wanting to run the football a lot here, Chiefs
Chargers under twenty three and a half in the first half.
Bet number one for us on Thursday. Now, you don't
(13:24):
think I'm not gonna play a same game teaser, right,
of course I am. I'm gonna same game tease this
as well. I still think this game is gonna be
low scoring ish, but it could go over the number
that we're at at the moment, which is you know,
forty six or so, which makes it a little bit
on the concerning side for me on that. But let's talk.
(13:47):
Let's talk about a two leg. Actually, I'm not same
game teasing this. I'm gonna tease it differently without the total.
Why because I'm not because a total at forty six
you could do one undred fifty two as possible. But
that scares me a little bit. I'm a little concerned
about that. Instead, I'm gonna take the Chargers and go
from three to nine. Why. Well, the Chiefs play one
score games and they could lose this games with the Chargers.
(14:09):
The Chargers could win this game. But the Chiefs always
tend to play one score games. That's just what they
do now. They play defense, they play low scoring games,
and they play one score games. I'm not in love
with the Chiefs. I'm not in love with their offense.
I think there's gonna be questions. I think Patrick Mahomes
has got some questions about his receivers. I think Travis
Kelsey's got his mind somewhere else. The offensive line is good,
(14:30):
not great. The running game is good not great. I'm
not that the defense is there, So let's play with
it and go in the under, but Chargers keep the
game close. Plus nine for the Chargers. So what are
we gonna pair that up with. Well, we're gonna pair
that up with and under. But that under is gonna
be the Rams game. Why, Well, the Rams and the Texans.
(14:52):
This is coming straight from our boy Erickson, who's been
on this and hammering this and talking about the fact
that Matthew Stafford's back gets question. The Houston Texans aren't
scoring all that much. The Rams defense is going to
better than people think, but the Rams offense has got
a bunch of questions all around it. Houston defense needs
to play well, and both these teams offensively did not
look great in the preseason. Under fifty it's currently forty four.
(15:17):
Let's tease it up to fifty Rams Texans under fifty
for minus one twenty. So that's a Friday Sunday play. Okay,
Chargers plus nine Rams under fifty for a six point
two leg parlay for US teaser really not part but
teaser for US. Teasers are parlays. But the teasers Chargers
(15:41):
plus nine Rams under fifty and I have one more
bet for us coming up here for this game on
Friday and that's Patrick Mahomes under thirty five and a
half passing attempts. Prop bit cheat sheet has this as
a sixty seven percent cover probability, twenty five percent expected value,
and a five star pl for Mahomes to throw to
(16:02):
attempt under thirty five and a half passing attempts. It's early.
You look for them to establish the run. You look
for them to keep moving the chains. You look for
them to figure out a way to keep I think,
just you know, Herbert and company. We'll see what they
look like throwing the ball, and we'll see what you
look like at running the football as well. But I
(16:22):
just think this is going to be a lower scoring game,
lower possessions, and I just don't think Mahomes is going
to have enough possessions to drop back and throw this
thing thirty thirty six times. I mean Mahomes in week
seventeen through thirty eight times at Pittsburgh, he threw forty
one times week sixteen. Against Houston, he threw thirty eight
times against Cleveland in Week fifteen. But in the playoffs,
(16:44):
you look at some of these games against Buffalo twenty six,
against Houston in the playoffs twenty five, the prop pet
Chi Chee is projecting this to be at thirty three
passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes leaning more heavily on the run.
Game here for Mahome in company, again lower scoring game
game that's out of the country, run the ball, more
(17:06):
use the offensive line. Mahomes under thirty five and a
half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for one point
one five units. Okay, So our plays for Thursday and Friday,
same game teaser Philly minus two over forty one and
a half for Mis one twenty. DeVante Smith prop in
(17:27):
that game over four and a half receptions at minus
one oh three. Friday first half under twenty three and
a half for the Chiefs and the Chargers at Mis
one twenty Chargers plus nine rams under fifty two leg
teaser for Friday and Sunday at Mis one twenty for
one point two units, and Mahomes prop under thirty five
(17:48):
and a half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for
one point one five units Thursday and Friday. Those are
the plays for Week one of the NFL. We have
the college slate on Saturday and the NFL Slate on
Sunday to give you coming up on tomorrow's podcast for
The Daily Juice. It will be a Thursday, after a
(18:11):
Wednesday night into a Thursday edition of the podcast, and
then Terrelle Furman's Got You Friday, Saturday and Sunday while
I recover from this surgery that I am having on
Thursday morning. Preopa's on Tuesday, Got it all taken care of.
We're rocking, We're locked in, We're good to go, Yestera.
After tomorrow, I'll come back hopefully for the Sunday night
(18:32):
or Monday morning taping of the podcast and we'll hopefully
get rolling with you again. I'll probably tape on Monday
morning just FYI for the Monday night game, but I
hopefully we will be back on Monday after the surgery.
My name's Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across
all of my socials at Sports Doc Matt every morning.
Where ever you guys get your podcasts. It is The
Daily Juice
Wants up. Guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday
morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is
Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all of
my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are trending
in the right direction for a good day. On Tuesday.
The Red Sox just won and they got the run line.
How I have no flip an idea how that's possible.
(00:36):
But that's a one unit win for the Red Sox.
Toronto is well on its way. They're up by three
runs in the eighth against the Reds, so barring a
collapse there, it'll be another unit one there. It'll be
a two and oho start to the night on Tuesday.
And then the Yankees are up to nothing in the
fourth over the Astros, so we'll need some help there
to get over seven and a half. But it looks
like a two and one day for us coming up.
(00:57):
So a winning day, a two and one day for
us on a Tuesday. Now, you guys know, I have
surgery coming up on Thursday. I have too many bets
to do it in one podcast. I was gonna do
one mega podcast. That's ridiculous. It'll be an hour okay,
because there's bets on Thursday, there's bets on Friday, there's
bets on Saturday, there's bets on Sunday. It's four days.
(01:18):
It's a million bets. Can't be done. So I'm breaking
into two parts. This is part A Thursday Friday. Okay,
Thursday Friday. Then tomorrow we will tape for Thursday morning.
That'll be for Saturday and Sunday, all right, So those
will be the official plays that will take us to
basically when I come back on Monday, Torell Furman is
(01:42):
going to have your daily Bets for you for Friday morning,
Saturday morning, Sunday morning. So his plays, but they're not
counting for the Daily Juice. So I'm gonna give you
the Daily Juice plays official plays today Thursday, Friday, and
then coming up tomorrow for Saturday and Sunday. Sense we
have two NFL games Thursday Friday. We got to get
(02:03):
action going on that. It's the NFL. So I've made
some bets tonight, got some plays for you guys. Coming
up now. We got so much to announce. We have
a new title sponsor, hard Rock Bet welcome more on
them here in just one second, our app. We just
redid it. The app is unbelievable. Check it out. We
(02:26):
have completely streamlined it. If you haven't seen it yet,
go check it out. If you have the app, make
sure you go to the app store upgrade. Make sure
you get your your update. I should say not upgrade
update makes you update. Okay, so you get the latest
version of the Betting Pros app. It's very cool. Tell
me what you think in the comment section and that
(02:48):
could be how you very well win the Tyreek Hill jersey.
This is available autographed Tyreek Hill Dolphins jersey for the
month of September. Very cool. How to get it Subscribe
to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and leave a comment.
Go check the app out, come back and tell me
what you think, what needs to be improved, what you
want more of, what you want less of on the app.
(03:10):
But it's very neat and we want to hear from
you guys in the comment section and that could very
well wing you that signed Tyreek Hill Miami Dolphins jersey.
Thanks to our friends at Pristineauction dot com. Now for
our friends at hard Rock. This is awesome and this
is how when you guys have options as to what
(03:30):
to do where to spend your money, and where to bet.
This is where we say thank you because hard Rock
is now the title sponsor presenting sponsor of the Daily Juice.
Everybody knows about the hard Rock hotels and casinos. Now
you can can use the top rated hard Rock Bet
sportsbook to place all your bets this NFL season and beyond.
(03:53):
Hard Rock Bet is the only legal sports book in
the state of Florida. It is also available in Arizona, Ohio,
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado, with Nevada
very closely coming when the hard Rock Bet on the Strip.
Hard Rock opens up with their signature guitar that is
(04:16):
going to be part of the Las Vegas skyline very
very soon. You could also play hard Rock Bet online
for their casino if you were in New Jersey. So
we're gonna start using hard Rock Bet lines here for
the Daily Juice and other betting pros shows. Plus, it
looks like we're heading to Florida. I know people at
(04:38):
hard Rock Bet. I had the hard Rock in Florida.
We might be doing live shows, I don't know, and
on location. Daily Juice. I've been talking about that for
literally two years that we should do an on location
live Daily Juice trip for you guys and me. We go,
we hang out, we watch games, we bet games the
Daily Juice. Would you guys come to hard Rock to flow?
(05:00):
Would you guys be down if we did a live
show for the Daily Juice. I mean it would be fun.
I would tape it live, obviously, but I think it
would be fun for all of us to hang out
together and watch games and bet games together. So that's
possible for us to do that at hard Rock properties
in Florida as we gear up for the NFL season.
Sign up for hard Rock Bet and make a five
(05:21):
dollars bet and you'll get one hundred and fifty dollars
in bonus bets. If you win, head over to hard
Rock Bet and sign up. Make your first deposit two
day payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered
by the Seminal Tribe of Florida. In Florida, offered by
Seminal hard Rock Digital, LLC and in all other states,
(05:44):
must be twenty one plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and
conditions supply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one hundred
Admit it. In Indiana, if you or someone you know
has a gambling problem and want help, call one eight
hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one hundred
gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia. Okay,
(06:10):
let's get to these plays coming up for today. It
is going to be and get comfortable for a second
because we gottat to talk about. Okay, let's start with
the Eagles and the Cowboys. You guys know how I
feel about the Cowboys. They're now seven to one. Okay,
I got plus six fifty. It's seven to one at
certain books to win the NFC East. Everyone thinks I'm
(06:31):
Looney Tunes bonkers. Okay, fine, Are the Eagles gonna lose
out of the gate? I don't think so. But eight ooh,
I don't know. That's tough. If the Eagles get down,
can they come back? I don't know. But if the
Cowboys get down, it can get to be a blowout
because they're gonna pass even more. And that concerns me
(06:54):
so here's what I think. The Cowboys aren't gonna stop
anybody this year. Okay, the Eagles I think will win
out of the gate. Banner and I a lot of
emotion in the building. Everyone's healthy. I think the Eagles
are going to have a hard time this year because
I think they're going to suffer some pretty big injuries.
They were very good last year with their injury luck.
(07:17):
Sakuon Barkley, a walking injury for the New York Giants,
never got hurt. I will be stunned if Sakuon Barkley
does not get hurt this year. Jalen Hurts has avoided
really major injuries. For a guy that gets hit as
much as he does, He's avoided major injuries, which is
somewhat shocking given what his career has looked like. I
(07:38):
don't think they're gonna have the same type of luck
on the offensive line or the defensive line that they
have had. But it's Game one, and in Game one,
do I think the Eagles lose to the Cowboys out
of the gate? I don't. The Micah Parsons thing also
makes it a little bit problematic because I think the
defense might need some time. I like Matt Eberflus a
lot as the decoordinator. I think he's going to cause
(07:59):
turnovers a lot this year, and even without Micah Parsons.
I think that's why. I think Ebraflus and company were like, Hey,
look at we can play defense without him. We're gonna
be okay without having Micah Parsons round. Now, he's a
great player. Everybody's worth forty seven million dollars. I don't
know he's getting a shot in his back already before
he plays a single game for the Packers. So I
(08:21):
like Ibraflus. I think Schottennheimer might be a decent head coach.
Dak's gonna throw the ball a ton. I think he's
got weapons, as we know, all over the field. So
I think both teams are going to score, but I
think the Eagles will win the game. So what am
I gonna do? Look at, If you're new and you
don't like teasers, you're not gonna like me. During football season,
(08:42):
I am obsessed with same game teasers. It's just been
my thing. Okay. Does it make it more difficult to
win sometimes? Yes? Does it make it more fun? Yes?
Am I playing in week one out of the gate
game one? Yes? Could that be stupid? Sure, I don't care.
Here's what we're doing, all right. Play one on Philly
from eight down to two six point same game teaser
(09:06):
Philly minus two, and we're taking the total down to
forty one and a half, down from forty seven and
a half down to forty one and a half, and
we're gonna bet over. I think both teams are going
to score. It's minus one twenty at DraftKings one point
two units down. Same game teaser Philly minus two over
(09:27):
forty one and a half from minus one twenty for
the first bet of the NFL football season, same game
prop bet time. Let's talk about DeVante Smith. DeVante Smith
I think could have a really big year. I think
the Eagles are gonna throw the ball more than what
they did last year because I think they know that
Sakuon Barkley is on borrow time right now and they
(09:49):
don't want to run him nearly as much as they
ran him last year. DeVante Smith, I think could have
a really big year for this Eagles team. Reception wise,
DeVante Smith, it's only four and a half. It's a
fifty six percent cover probability. It's a five star rated play.
By the betting pros app it's a plus twenty six
expected value. The projection is for five, which is pretty
(10:12):
much what he had six, five or four catches every
single game. If he gets five we cash, he gets
six we cash, he gets four. We miss. But against
the Cowboys back in week seventeen, a forty one to
seven win for the Eagles over the Cowboys, he had
six catches for one hundred and twenty yards and two
(10:32):
touchdowns in a game against Dallas. Previously, back on week
in Week ten on the road at Dallas, a thirty
four to six win for the Eagles, he only had
two receptions fourteen receiving yards. He wasn't really a big
part of the offense, but most games he is. Most
games in particularly last year early he had seven catches.
(10:53):
In the first three games of the season, he had seven,
to seven and seven for this Eagles offense. It's a
good price here at plus or sorry minus one oh three,
minus one oh four, one o five, depending on where
you're gonna look at this. We're gonna go with a
full unit play on this because well we're this far
(11:14):
out and I don't want to give you with a
thousand bets and I'm gonna I'm gonna not do the
half unit thing for a little bit. It may burn me, okay,
but prop betting wise, I'm gonna bet full units on
prop bets for a little bit using the prop bet
cheat sheet and the prop bet analyzer and see if
we can start the NFL year and what we can
do with that, because we might. It could get hot,
(11:37):
It could set us up for a really big year
in the NFL. So DeVante Smith over four and a
half receptions for one point zero three units. So Philly
minus two over forty one and a half. Same game
teaser DeVante Smith over four and a half receptions at
MIUS one oh three for one point zero three units.
(11:59):
Those are the bets for Thursday. Now to the bets
for Friday. We're going to Brazil. The Chiefs are taking
on the Chargers. This is a home game for the Chargers.
I hate this, and I mean I hate this. I
cannot believe that this game is being played in Brazil.
Hopefully the field will be in better shape than it
was last year when the Eagles and the Packers played
(12:21):
in this game, Casey is favored by three. The total
is up to forty six here between these teams, I
am not going to play the full game total. Instead,
I'm gonna look at the first half. Patrick Mahomes did
not play very much in the preseason. Neither did Justin Herbert.
I think the defenses for both these teams are going
(12:43):
to be really far ahead of the offenses. Early second
half might be a different story, but at least in
the first half, I actually think this game is going
to be a pretty slow, pretty low scoring affair where
both defenses really take notice and take notes. I'm gonna
play the first half under for the Chiefs and the Chargers.
(13:03):
Unders in game one have been very profitable. Unders in
the first half have been very profitable. You can bind
this game being in Brazil. You can bind these teams
both wanting to run the football a lot here, Chiefs
Chargers under twenty three and a half in the first half.
Bet number one for us on Thursday. Now, you don't
(13:24):
think I'm not gonna play a same game teaser, right,
of course I am. I'm gonna same game tease this
as well. I still think this game is gonna be
low scoring ish, but it could go over the number
that we're at at the moment, which is you know,
forty six or so, which makes it a little bit
on the concerning side for me on that. But let's talk.
(13:47):
Let's talk about a two leg. Actually, I'm not same
game teasing this. I'm gonna tease it differently without the total.
Why because I'm not because a total at forty six
you could do one undred fifty two as possible. But
that scares me a little bit. I'm a little concerned
about that. Instead, I'm gonna take the Chargers and go
from three to nine. Why. Well, the Chiefs play one
score games and they could lose this games with the Chargers.
(14:09):
The Chargers could win this game. But the Chiefs always
tend to play one score games. That's just what they
do now. They play defense, they play low scoring games,
and they play one score games. I'm not in love
with the Chiefs. I'm not in love with their offense.
I think there's gonna be questions. I think Patrick Mahomes
has got some questions about his receivers. I think Travis
Kelsey's got his mind somewhere else. The offensive line is good,
(14:30):
not great. The running game is good not great. I'm
not that the defense is there, So let's play with
it and go in the under, but Chargers keep the
game close. Plus nine for the Chargers. So what are
we gonna pair that up with. Well, we're gonna pair
that up with and under. But that under is gonna
be the Rams game. Why, Well, the Rams and the Texans.
(14:52):
This is coming straight from our boy Erickson, who's been
on this and hammering this and talking about the fact
that Matthew Stafford's back gets question. The Houston Texans aren't
scoring all that much. The Rams defense is going to
better than people think, but the Rams offense has got
a bunch of questions all around it. Houston defense needs
to play well, and both these teams offensively did not
look great in the preseason. Under fifty it's currently forty four.
(15:17):
Let's tease it up to fifty Rams Texans under fifty
for minus one twenty. So that's a Friday Sunday play. Okay,
Chargers plus nine Rams under fifty for a six point
two leg parlay for US teaser really not part but
teaser for US. Teasers are parlays. But the teasers Chargers
(15:41):
plus nine Rams under fifty and I have one more
bet for us coming up here for this game on
Friday and that's Patrick Mahomes under thirty five and a
half passing attempts. Prop bit cheat sheet has this as
a sixty seven percent cover probability, twenty five percent expected value,
and a five star pl for Mahomes to throw to
(16:02):
attempt under thirty five and a half passing attempts. It's early.
You look for them to establish the run. You look
for them to keep moving the chains. You look for
them to figure out a way to keep I think,
just you know, Herbert and company. We'll see what they
look like throwing the ball, and we'll see what you
look like at running the football as well. But I
(16:22):
just think this is going to be a lower scoring game,
lower possessions, and I just don't think Mahomes is going
to have enough possessions to drop back and throw this
thing thirty thirty six times. I mean Mahomes in week
seventeen through thirty eight times at Pittsburgh, he threw forty
one times week sixteen. Against Houston, he threw thirty eight
times against Cleveland in Week fifteen. But in the playoffs,
(16:44):
you look at some of these games against Buffalo twenty six,
against Houston in the playoffs twenty five, the prop pet
Chi Chee is projecting this to be at thirty three
passing attempts for Patrick Mahomes leaning more heavily on the run.
Game here for Mahome in company, again lower scoring game
game that's out of the country, run the ball, more
(17:06):
use the offensive line. Mahomes under thirty five and a
half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for one point
one five units. Okay, So our plays for Thursday and Friday,
same game teaser Philly minus two over forty one and
a half for Mis one twenty. DeVante Smith prop in
(17:27):
that game over four and a half receptions at minus
one oh three. Friday first half under twenty three and
a half for the Chiefs and the Chargers at Mis
one twenty Chargers plus nine rams under fifty two leg
teaser for Friday and Sunday at Mis one twenty for
one point two units, and Mahomes prop under thirty five
(17:48):
and a half passing attempts at minus one fifteen for
one point one five units Thursday and Friday. Those are
the plays for Week one of the NFL. We have
the college slate on Saturday and the NFL Slate on
Sunday to give you coming up on tomorrow's podcast for
The Daily Juice. It will be a Thursday, after a
(18:11):
Wednesday night into a Thursday edition of the podcast, and
then Terrelle Furman's Got You Friday, Saturday and Sunday while
I recover from this surgery that I am having on
Thursday morning. Preopa's on Tuesday, Got it all taken care of.
We're rocking, We're locked in, We're good to go, Yestera.
After tomorrow, I'll come back hopefully for the Sunday night
(18:32):
or Monday morning taping of the podcast and we'll hopefully
get rolling with you again. I'll probably tape on Monday
morning just FYI for the Monday night game, but I
hopefully we will be back on Monday after the surgery.
My name's Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across
all of my socials at Sports Doc Matt every morning.
Where ever you guys get your podcasts. It is The
Daily Juice
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