Finish The Story 59: Night 3 - 02/05/25

Jon Jansen dives into the numbers for #SuperBowlLIX with Jeff Parles. Luke Arcaini and Joe Tansey go over all things props for #SuperBowlLIX.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
If you can wager on it, we're talking about it.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
It's the Gambler, the Fox Sports Radio, The Gambler. Fox
Sports Radio in Philly is the Gambler. The Gambler, Philly's
home for all things sports, gambling. Bourbon Street has officially
turned midnight Great all things Big Game fifty nine right

(00:24):
here on the Gambler.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Finish the story.

Speaker 4 (00:34):
It's what we've been saying for two weeks now, almost
two weeks.

Speaker 5 (00:38):
Leading up to the Big Game. What it's finished the
story mean.

Speaker 4 (00:43):
It means a second Super Bowl for the Philadelphia Eagles franchise.
It means ending the run the Kansas City Chiefs have
been on denying them a three pet It means history,
it means legacy, and.

Speaker 5 (01:00):
It means I'm gonna win a bet. I love the
Philadelphia Eagles. For the Big Game, we're going over at
all unfinished the story fifty nine right here on the Gambler.

Speaker 3 (01:10):
John Jansen, here I have you for the next hour.

Speaker 5 (01:12):
Six to seven and then seven to eight we'll get
the Joe Tansy and Luke Arcaney as well. Joining us
at six point twenty is going to be Jeff Parls
south Point and we'll talk some prop bets with him,
who he likes in the game, and obviously where the
money will be going. But as you heard there in
the open, grease the polls, they're already greased. I'm already

(01:32):
planning for the parade. I'm confident the Birds winning this game,
and I'm confident I have to say they win it
by a lot. I hate to say comfortably, but they're
gonna look like the better team. They're going to be
the better team in the big game, super Bowl fifty nine. Also,
we're gonna be going over some places as well, and

(01:54):
some other bets on the Cut Sports, the social betting
platform Cut as well, so we'll be getting to those
so plenty to go through. But I want to start
do with this. I like the Eagles money line. I've
been seeing a lot about the Eagles and the motivations
that they may have why they could win this game
and everything. It's ending the three peat, it's getting revenge,

(02:17):
it's finishing the story, and I do like it. I
do like the finish the story thing, and I understand
that that is going to be at the forefront a
lot of these because the Eagles did play the Kansas
City Chiefs two years ago.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
The Kansas City Chiefs did win that game.

Speaker 5 (02:29):
It was the start of what could potentially be a
three p something that's never been done in the history
of the Super Bowl. Nobody's done a three pat. So yeah,
finish the story is a big deal, but it's not.
It is a motivating factor to maybe bet this for some.
It may be a motivating factor for the Eagles, but
I don't think you need motivating factors. I think everybody's

(02:51):
trying to come up with motivating factors for the Eagles
to win this.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
They don't need it.

Speaker 5 (02:57):
There's only one reason why you bet this, and only
one reason why I'm betting the Eagles confidently. I bet
them confidently in the Wildcard, the Division Round, the NFC
Championship game, and I'm going to bet them confidently in
the Super Bowl. This is the best team in the NFL.
This has been the best team in the NFL for

(03:18):
a long time. If you're paying attention to the numbers,
if you're paying attention to how this team is played,
they're the better team.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
They're the best team in this game.

Speaker 5 (03:31):
They match up not only well on paper, but they
match up in the scoreboards as well. They're winning games
the same way Kansas City does. They're just doing it
better than the way Kansas City does it. This has
been all season long. I get when you end up
facing a team like this and there are like the

(03:53):
concerning things. Patrick Mahomes is amazing, Andy Reid is amazing.
The Kansas City Chiefs are an amazing team that have
defied odds before. This isn't the first time. If they
do be the Eagles in the Super Bowl, this would
not be the first time that I thought going into
the Super Bowl they were the worst team in it
and won the game. Last year they did the same
thing to San Francisco. San Francisco was the better team

(04:15):
than Kansas City going into that one. Kansas City, I
think was even that may have been the worst team
that they've had. This version is better than what they
had last year. San Francisco was better and Kansas City
won that game. I know that they have the capability
of doing that, but this Eagles team is even different
from that San Francisco won. It's different than the Eagles

(04:37):
team in twenty two. I think one of the things
with being a better team, I know we look at
numbers a lot. Jalen hurts it the better year in
twenty two. Jalen Hurts is by far a better quarterback
than he was in twenty two than he is in
twenty four. You know that was that was near a
great defense as well. I hate to say number one.

(04:57):
I don't know where they finish the Eagles and twenty
two finishes the top defense. That was a good defense.
That was a really good football team. And by the numbers,
if you want to look at historically, by the numbers,
what is the best team in franchise history? The numbers
tell you twenty two twenty two is the best team
the Eagles have ever had by the numbers, But as

(05:22):
we've even seen with Kansas City, sometimes by the numbers
doesn't mean you're a better team. Maturity, learning how to
win football games, learning as a franchise, because this isn't
just the quarterback learn and the players in the field learn.
This is front office learned, coach learned, everybody in that

(05:45):
Eagles organization learn from that twenty twenty two season. They
learned from even last year of some of the mistakes
that they made, corrected all of those things, and now
they have put together I think maybe the best roster,
the most mature roster, the most mature coaching staff. This

(06:08):
is a coaching staff that has been in a lot
of big games, that has coached in a lot of games.
I think that's the difference to me because we sometimes
and I get caught up in this a lot too,
because I look at things like EPI, I look at
advanced stats. I look at EPA, completion percentage over expected,

(06:29):
rushing yards over expected, a lot of things analytics, and
sometimes they get infatuated by the team that has you know,
a ballooned even DVOA, these numbers that are just like
eye popping, staggering. This team is so great, but it
sometimes doesn't to maybe reveal the level of maturity that

(06:50):
team has. I think the Eagles have learned to be
better in late game situations. I think this may be
the best year Sirian he has had as a coach.
Started off shaky, but I think this is the best
year he has had as a coach. I think he's
made the right decisions. I think he has been a
positive when it comes to decision making in the fourth quarter,
when it comes to decision making on fourth downs, wherever,

(07:13):
whatever the case may be.

Speaker 3 (07:14):
Of how Nick Sirioti as a coach affects a game.

Speaker 5 (07:16):
I think he's been good in those situations, and at
least I can.

Speaker 3 (07:20):
Say he's gotten better.

Speaker 5 (07:24):
Jalen Hurts has always been what people say a winner.
He's good in late game situations. But even he as
a passer had to mature last year because that was
his best year in twenty twenty two. That's when Jalen
Hurst burst onto the scene. The offense was perfect for
him with Shanstike in there, and he is probably twenty
twenty two is going to be Jalen Hurts's best statistical season.

(07:46):
I don't think he will ever match that MVP level
play that he had, but he doesn't need to. The
maturity is is knowing that you don't need to be
that quarterback, especially with the roster that you have. You
don't need to throw turnovers, you don't need to be
ultra aggressive. You can be a little bit smarter. You

(08:10):
can sometimes misplays, but don't make the worst play. Jalen
Hurts did that a lot last season. For as much
as you could put things on coaching staff, all of
that last year was the quarterback put the ball in
Harm's way a lot. He hasn't done that at all.
There is a level of growth maturity. It may not

(08:31):
be career best years that a lot of these guys
are having, but career best years don't always mean Super Bowls.
This is a team now that has experience, maturity, growth,
and I think this version of this team, I think

(08:52):
understands better how to win a football game. As a total,
as a team understands how to win a football game.
And a lot of credit has to go to a
new coaching staff as well. Kellen Moore has done an
excellent job in making sure Jalen doesn't become the turnover
prone quarterback that he was last year.

Speaker 3 (09:10):
Jalen's been excellent. The offense has been excellent.

Speaker 5 (09:12):
I think they found an amazing balance between the passing
game and the rushing game against Washington. They're going to
need to do that against Kansas City.

Speaker 3 (09:19):
Well. Kellen Moore is at his best.

Speaker 5 (09:21):
I think he ends up attacking defense as well, but learning.
I think for him to attack defenses in multiple ways
and to be balanced and to use a defense's weakness
against them, but do it in a way where you
can still do it in multiple kinds of ways. In
the running game of the passing game, involved. Everyone thought
Kellen Moore did an excellent job against that at Washington

(09:42):
Vic Fangio.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
He has versatile players. They can play.

Speaker 5 (09:46):
There are guys that can play multiple positions, play anywhere.
They have put guys in positions that they've never played
before to start the season and they're doing well. Zach Bond,
obviously we know, is a huge example of that. Rookies
have played well. Defensive lineman has played well. Guys have
become like Jalen Carter, from great to elite in one season.
It's a team that has a lot of maturity, a

(10:07):
lot of growth. This is the best version of the Eagles.
It's not a career best by the numbers. This isn't
the best team potentially in franchise history.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
But this is.

Speaker 5 (10:19):
Certainly a team in the best position I think to win.
It is a no brainer to me. There's no it's
not motivation, it's not the revenge game factor, it's not
ending the three peat for Kansas City. What it is
is the Eagles being a better football team, and I

(10:41):
think the Eagles are the much better football team. Tune
in to finish the story right here on the Gambler
Jeff Parls. You can follow him at Jeff Parls on X.
He's going to be joining us at six twenty.

Speaker 6 (10:55):
Now.

Speaker 5 (10:55):
I'm gonna be interested to hear about the props with him,
because this game is interesting because you have, I think,
really good matchups against each other. At the Chiefs defense,
I think matches up pretty well against the Eagles, even
though I think the Eagles offense is a bit of
a better matchup for the Chiefs defense than the other
way around, because I think it's going to be an
amazing chess match between the talent and the guy leading
the way in Vic Fangio. They're on the defensive side

(11:17):
for the Eagles, and then Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
There's this amazing chess game that's going to be played
between all of them, and it's going to be hard,
especially on the Eagle side, to note where exactly they're
going to attack Kansas City, how they're going to attack them.

Speaker 3 (11:29):
I think one of the.

Speaker 5 (11:31):
Ways I think that they attack them is in the
passing game, and you're going to get the lower numbers
there too. It's not like Jalen Hurts is going to
be getting a premium dollar for his passing attempts or
passing yards. A lot of the attention is going to
be thrown on Saquon Barkley, but we've seen in these
games that it's going to take more than just that.

(11:52):
The Eagles have to be the best version of themselves
outside of just the running game. We know that they're
really good at that. We know that that is something
that they are capable of. It's likely going to rush
for over one hundred yards in this game with Saquon Barkley.

Speaker 3 (12:03):
They're going to give him the ball plenty.

Speaker 5 (12:06):
But in order to beat a team like Kansas City,
you need more than that, and that's where Jalen Hurts
comes in. I think Jalen Hurts is a good game.
I think you can attack Kansas City in the secondary.
There are going to be times where, yeah, Jalen Hurts
is likely going to take a sack or two that
are going to be really bad. But I think he
plays good turnover free football but also is successful and

(12:27):
productive in the passing game. Those are the props I
want to take. I think you can get a little
bit weird with the Eagles just because they are capable
of doing so much and everybody's so focused on the
one thing that they do extremely well that everybody's talking about.
Everybody knows about Saquon, everybody's betting Saquon. I can't imagine
many are going to run to the books and to

(12:50):
want to bet Jalen Hurts passing yards or Jalen Hurts
passing attempts because they're not known for that. And those
are the numbers that are gonna be for me in
my kind of price range that I'm like something that
I think is more bettable than Saquon Barkley. I don't
know if I'm gonna bet many Saquon Barkley props. It's

(13:11):
the Super Bowl, it's the most bet on game, and
it's the most money that's gonna be thrown around. And
I'll tell you what, there's probably gonna be more money
on Saquon Barkley than any other player in this game.

Speaker 3 (13:22):
He is I am.

Speaker 5 (13:24):
I'm assuming so most of the money's gonna be on Saquan.
There's too much attention on him. I'm gonna go maybe
where there isn't been attention. I've like Jalen Hurts a
lot in I think MVP. I think over pass attempts,
pass yards, even passing touchdowns. I haven't checked the number
for that. I know passing yards can't get around minus

(13:44):
one pin forty. Don't know how much of the number
has changed there, but for over one ninety nine and
a half love that number. I think Jalen Hurts it
gets over two hundred. So if you want to bet
two hundred plus with Jalen Hurts, you want to take
a little bit of juice with it, completely fine with it.
I think Jalen Hurts flies over that number. I think
he gets close to two forty two fifty in this game.
But it's hard for a book to maybe put that

(14:06):
number there because the attention in the money is all
going to one player and it's tay Kwon Barkley. Now,
what I don't know in the passing game is who
it goes to because there's so many threats. So you
can take a flyer on a DeVante Smith, you can
take a flyer on a Dallas Goddard, a J.

Speaker 6 (14:22):
Brown.

Speaker 5 (14:23):
Again, maybe a little bit too much attention towards him
that I don't know if I'd want to bet a
lot of his props. But he's obviously going to be involved,
and I'm sure the Eagles are going to want to
get him involved, but I'm want to go even against
the Green a little bit there. DeVante Smith Dallas got
it if you have to with pass catchers, and Dallas
got her touchdown. I think also could be a big
part in this game. But I just want to stick

(14:43):
with the overall passing game and that obviously goes to
Jalen Hurts. Now, if you want to bet him for
two plus touchdowns, I know I heard that earlier with
Sean Green, with Sean Brace earlier on the Daily Ticket,
which you can listen to every Monday through Friday three
to six right here on the Gambler, that that is
still in play for Jalen Hurts. If they're going to
move the ball, if they're going to have a possibility

(15:05):
to score on this Chiefs defense, it's likely going to
end maybe once or twice in a touch push. It
ends a lot that way, and it could absolutely end
that way in a Super Bowl. And one other thing
is Jaleen Hurts asso ran the ball a little bit
more now. I don't expect him to do that as
much as he did in the Super Bowl last time.
I think this will be I want to focus, I
guess more on the passing side of things with Jalen Hurts.

(15:27):
So I don't want to go Saquon Barkley, don't want
to go a J Brown. Jalen Hurts to me. On
the offensive side for the Eagles on the Kansas City
side is where I maybe get a little bit different
because I don't want to go with passing attempts at Mahomes.

Speaker 3 (15:39):
I don't want to go passing yards.

Speaker 5 (15:41):
They're not an extremely explosive, great passing offense. They have
to work a lot to be able to do the
things that they do now. Again, they can because Patrick
Mahomes can do a lot of the leg work. Patrick
Mahomes is a very good quarterback and can can be

(16:01):
productive in multiple different ways. I think where the difference
has been with him is this isn't an explosive offense.
They need to get yards anyway they can, and they
grind out yards in the run game with the Homes.
They're going to use him in the running game. They're
going to use RPOs. They used RPOs exclusively almost on
the first drive against Buffalo. They're going to use that.

(16:24):
And if you're using RPOs, you're trying to use misdirection.
You need and that's all you have, by the way,
is misdirection, eye candy, short yard of stuff. You know,
all eyes are going to just be looking in the backfield,
looking in front of you. Because Kansas City does a
lot of stuff in the line of scrimmage. They pass
the ball a lot behind the line of scrimmage. They
passed the ball within fifteen yards. Every single defense playing

(16:45):
Kansas City is mostly looking fifteen.

Speaker 3 (16:47):
Yards inn It's hard to play that way.

Speaker 5 (16:51):
In order for an offense to be effective that way,
quarterbacks gonna have to run the ball. And with the Eagles,
that has to be a threat because Eagles play so downhill,
their cornerbacks are so aggressive, their linebackers are so aggressive.
One way you can kind of counter that is to
have Patrick Mahomes run, and he's very smart with it.

(17:12):
He has incredible spatial awareness. He's a really good runner.
He's a smart runner. I think Patrick Mahomes over rush attempts,
and I think Patrick Mahomes over rushing yards is to
play there passing. I'm not one hundred percent sure what
that's gonna look like against this Eagles defense that plays
really well at the line of scrimmage. And that's all

(17:33):
Kansas City has, so I don't know how explosive they're
going to be. I don't want to put money on
something as a guess of, Well, this guy could be
a huge contributing factor in the passing game, and I
expect a huge game from this X wide receiver. Whether
it's Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, or Rexavier Worthy, I don't
feel strongly about any of them. What I do feel

(17:54):
strongly about is Kansas City needs to win at the
line of scrimmage in a lot of different ways. And
one of the ways to do that and to be
effective at it again against the Eagles defense that is
the best in the league and the best in the
league at stopping the things that Kansas City does, You're
gonna have to involve your quarterback as a runner, and
that's where I want to bet. Patrick Mahomes there tut

(18:15):
to the finish the story. John Jansen here, I have
you till seven o'clock. Joining me in a bit is
Jeff Parls, and I love going.

Speaker 3 (18:22):
Back and forth with Parls.

Speaker 5 (18:24):
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I have a few of those. I have a few opinions.

(18:45):
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Speaker 3 (19:03):
Put your money where your mouth is. Join CUT today.

Speaker 5 (19:05):
We'll look at a few of some of those bets
over at cuts, the peer to peer social betting platform.
So we'll get to a bunch of those right here
on finish the story coming up next with Jeff Parls.
How is he looking at prop bets? Do we need
to go against the grain? Do we stay with Patch
Mahomes passing, Saquon Barkley rushing? How is he getting a

(19:28):
little bit different here for the big game?

Speaker 3 (19:30):
Last?

Speaker 5 (19:30):
Jeff Parls of South Point That coming up next right
here on the.

Speaker 2 (19:33):
Gambling the birds are on Bourbon Street, and we're all
over it for you right here.

Speaker 1 (19:39):
I'm a gambler.

Speaker 5 (19:53):
Of course, you can create your own bet over a cut,
but I'm seeing some public bets available minus won sixteen
money lines. Kansas City a one point favorite. I'm seeing
seen a lot of a lot of Eagles love over

(20:15):
in the cuts social betting app.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
So maybe somebody wants to get in on Kansas City.

Speaker 4 (20:25):
Does anyone what Kansas City?

Speaker 5 (20:29):
Maybe our next guest does I hope not joining us
right now on finish this story. My name is John
Jansen and joining us on the phone over in the
desert in Vegas at South Point it is Jeff Parls.
You can follow him at Jeff Parls on X you
want to take any of.

Speaker 3 (20:48):
That action, Parls? Are you? Are you on Kansas City?
Or is this is this all Eagles for you?

Speaker 6 (20:54):
Well, I'm gonna use an analogy for so John, good evening. Well,
it's haf been in here in Vegas. But I know,
I know times, I know, time zones are are are
are still a thing. But you know it's easy analogy
that that someone used with me for the AFC title game.

(21:18):
If the Eagles win, it's gonna be of course, this
was the year Kansas City was finally not gonna win.
They had their flaws, they were they were lucky at
fifteen and two. They were the best. I mean they
were they were the best in one score games. I
mean they are the best team in one score game

(21:38):
in NFL history. Again, of course they were gonna lose.
And then on the flip side, if the Chiefs win,
it's like, I really bet against Patrick Mahomes in a
big game. What the heck is wrong with me? So
both of those things like makes sense. And that was
someone someone I trust felt about the Chiefs and built game.

(22:00):
I believe was my guy Will Hill actually who said
that it's not the sports book the demand himself. Well,
right now, look, I have not played the side.

Speaker 1 (22:11):
I have not played the total.

Speaker 6 (22:13):
I have actually not even I don't even have a
prop in my pocket yet because for whatever reason, I'm
waiting this thing out because I don't feel nearly as
confident of what will happen in this game as I
have Super Bowls passed. But if you're making me pick today,
sorry John, sorry everyone in Philly. I'm not picking against

(22:33):
Patrick Mahomes until someone takes him out and miss Philly
team is as equipped as anyone over the last three
years to take out the Kansas City Chiefs in a
playoff game.

Speaker 5 (22:44):
Are you surprised for the second week in a row
that it seems to be the opponent that is getting
more of the love than Kansas City.

Speaker 6 (22:51):
Well, it's pretty funny, John, if according to a chunk
of the public, these games are rigged for Kansas City.
So why is everyone I'm betting on Philadelphia like what
like against the narrative? Right goes completely against the narrative? Uh,
at least I look, I'll call it as it is,
as as the idiot fringe, as as I've as I

(23:14):
I've now branded them the conspiracy theorist with the NFL.

Speaker 3 (23:19):
What do you what did you call him? What did
you name him?

Speaker 6 (23:21):
No, it's just the idiot fringe. They're conspiracy theorists whatever
I mean. I know, I know conspiracy theories are in
vogue right now. Come on, you know how many too
many people would have I would have to get involved
in order to uh to have this thing be be four.

Speaker 5 (23:35):
Kansas And there's one thing that's going to be hard
for me to believe. It's sports comparracy. Conspiracy theories those up.

Speaker 6 (23:43):
Look, it's one thing for Area fifty one, it's.

Speaker 3 (23:45):
Another thing for that, but it's another thing for.

Speaker 6 (23:50):
Hopeful, hopefully, hopefully, I just didn't get on some government
list with that, but for recardless. Now, look, man, I
my little surprise. Yeah, I'm a little surprise, but I
do know that most people at Philadelphia raided out of
Kansas City, out of here. But the myhomes factor is
really the biggest reason why Kansas City's favored. Look, I

(24:15):
just can't bet again, I just right, you can't like,
but he gets Michael Jordan. Is there really betting in
the nineties, Man, it's just so hard to go against
who is the guy who is the most elite, consistent
piece there is in the sport.

Speaker 5 (24:30):
So I guess the question after that would be because
it would take a pretty special team, You're right, like,
in order for you to want to bet the other
team against Kansas City, and for the most part with
me too, it's you would have to believe the team
on the other side is that special to do it.
I don't think Buffalo was special enough to do it.
They're good, and they potentially because they played Kansas City

(24:51):
so often to the past like three or four years,
that there was a potential to do that. But I
don't think that team talent wise was nearly special to
be able to want to bet Buffalo. I think for
the Eagles, to me, they are what's holding you back
for maybe I'm sure I think you even just said
like Eagles are equipped to do it.

Speaker 3 (25:10):
They're good.

Speaker 5 (25:10):
What's holding you back from being good or that special
to be able to take down what is obviously it
seems like a juggernaut in Kansas City.

Speaker 6 (25:19):
It's just Mahomes himself. It's that simple, John, It's just
Mahomes himself. You don't, at least for me. So I've
bet against Mahomes in two playoff games twice. They were
both Bangle AFC Championship games. Live to tell the tale.
The first time around. The second time remember Mahomes at
the gimbi ankle, and it's like, really like Cincinnati was

(25:42):
looking back, it's kind of crazy. Cincinnati is a one
point favorite in that game, and Mahomes in Kansas City
found a way and then they beat the Eagles obviously
two weeks later. But it's just as simple as Mahomes, man.
I just I can't get there to bet against him.
It's just too difficult when it's all said be done
to bet against him. And I look, I the Eagles

(26:06):
defense this year is much better than it was two
years ago. I don't think anyone's arguing on that, but
it's still it's still hard to go against Patrick in
these sort of games. Man's just all that is John talking.

Speaker 5 (26:19):
With Jeff Parls here on Finish the Story. John Jansen
here hosting finished the story. I Hapy until seven o'clock
and then from seven to eight you can hear Luke
Arcaney and Joe Tanzy. So I want to get to
more of the prop bets because you talk a lot
about Patrick Mahomes. I think there's two guys in terms
of prop bets that I think a lot of people
are gonna want to bet, and that's Patrick Mahomes and
one of bet specifically Patrick Mahomes' passing numbers. Then also

(26:42):
on the other side Sae Kwon Barkley. He's the focal
point of the Eagles offense. He's what makes the machine
go for the Eagles. I'm kind of leaning in the
opposite direction for both. But how has it been difficult
to find prop bets? Knowing that this seems to be
so focused on just one player for em.

Speaker 6 (27:01):
Oh, yeah, it's been. It's been much harder than usual, John,
And you know what, maybe because the matchups so even,
Maybe because it's like, like, if Philadelphia came, it's so
weird and it's only a difference of two points, but
we know how big of a difference two points is
it doesn't it come Philadelphia one, I'd probably be betting
on Kansas City in this game, or if Philly was

(27:21):
the favor. He like, all right, I don't get Mahomes
as a dog, but you know it's, yes, it is
hard because of that to go around. Like also too,
like every every Super Bowl victory for Kansas City, a
random guy has done something gigantic. Now, Damian Williams wasn't
that random in the first Super Bowl win.

Speaker 3 (27:43):
But in hindsight, twenty how long ago Williams feels Patrick
Mahomes thing is just starting, and this thing's been going
on forever.

Speaker 6 (27:53):
I mean, twenty nineteen might as well be nineteen seventy nine.

Speaker 1 (27:56):
At this point. But yeah, but but Williams that year.

Speaker 6 (28:01):
But that's my point, John, Like, and then the Eagles
Super Bowl, I mean Cadarius Tony got last out of
the NFL, and he was great in that game. Guy
Moore had no regular season touchdowns and scored a touchdown
in that game. And then last year, but Coole Hardin,
who couldn't hack it with the New York Jets, scored

(28:23):
the winning touchdown. So, like, there's gonna be a random chief,
whether it's Jujus Smith Schuster, whether it's Demaj p Ryan,
whether it's Justin Watson or Noah Gray, is gonna be
one of those dudes is gonna do something special in
this game, And whoever it is, it's gonna be someone random.
So it makes it a look difficult. They handicap the

(28:45):
chief props like yeah, you I want to fake the checko,
but his numbers are so low at this point that's
kind of hard to Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunter scored a
touchdown in every playoff game he's played it. Do you
want to take a yes touchdown? Akareem Hunt? I don't know.
I don't know if the price is good not On
the eagle side, it's very hard when John there's really

(29:07):
only four skilled position players that are really even worth
than anything on the eagle side, right, it's Parkley, it's Coddard,
it's it's aj and it's Divine, it's Davonte. Right that
say for the skill posision, guys, So it's not really
a catch U listen to here, Like do you want
to take Grant Calcatara over over a catch over half

(29:27):
a catch? Yeah? Maybe? Like John Dotson obviously paid off
big time in the in the in the NFC Wildcard round,
but in since John Dodson has had a target. So
it's very hard, very hard for me to look at
this on the in this game and look at the
props in a similar fashion to what I normally do

(29:51):
in these props.

Speaker 2 (29:52):
John.

Speaker 6 (29:53):
It is very difficult.

Speaker 3 (29:54):
Yeah, it has been.

Speaker 5 (29:55):
So that's why I'm I'm trying to go against the
great with those great players in different ways. So for
the Eagles it's Jalen Hurts. I think I want to
bet more and I'm going to bet more on the
passing side of things. The rationale being Kansas City Chiefs. Yes,
you need to run the ball against Kansas City. Tae
Kwon Barkley needs to be good, maybe special to be

(30:15):
the team like Kansas City. But you don't beat Kansas
City just doing that you have to do multiple things
really well, and I think the passing game is gonna
have to get involved. And also, the props are so
far down nobody's betting Jalen Hurts passing props.

Speaker 3 (30:28):
All of these bets.

Speaker 5 (30:30):
Everybody all eyes around Saquon Barkley in the Eagles running game.
So it just feels like I can sneak kind of
behind all of that bet some Jalen Hurts passing props
and maybe get some easy winners. But Jalen Hurts as
a passer, I know it gets made a lot of
I think heading into the playoffs, that was one of
the biggest questions, especially because Hurts was out for three
weeks with a concussion.

Speaker 3 (30:50):
What is the passing game going to be?

Speaker 7 (30:51):
Like?

Speaker 5 (30:52):
I think it really got going against Washington. Now, Washington's
defense obviously a lot worse than most of the defenses
that they've played heading into the playoffs and into the
Super Bowl, but still the passing game looked better than
it has and they still have special players. Is that
maybe one way to go against the Green When I
say Jalen Hurts passing props, how do you how do
you take that?

Speaker 6 (31:13):
I mean, you're trying for something that's against the market, right, John,
I mean that's not a bad way to do it.
I actually kind of want to fade Jalen Hurts his
rushing yards in this game.

Speaker 3 (31:23):
Yes, I'm actually I would agree with that.

Speaker 6 (31:25):
Yeah, I think you're in a scenario. Uh. I think
you're in a scenario where you're you're, you're, you're, you're,
you're looking at uh, you're looking at at the She's
trying to take away the ability of Hurts to run,
which again we've seen at times. It's so interesting, John,

(31:47):
because like you, I think you tweeted about this and
and you and you also mentioned it a little bit
to that just now. The Commander's matchup was a really
in retrospect, was a great matchup for Jayleen Hurts with
a great matchup for Jalen Hurts Almo the Ram game
where the Rams pass rusher was good enough to get
home U and their secondary was good enough in order

(32:10):
to do that. Now there's a question I think Kansas
City secondary and pass rush is good enough to get
home against this Alito line. But but John, I will
I will tell you this. I think this is this
is a game. It's very simple handicapping wise, the Saint
Kwon Barkley's props go over.

Speaker 1 (32:30):
The Eagles are probably gonna win.

Speaker 6 (32:32):
This game, and Saint Quon Barkley is probably gonna be
the MVP of the game also, and that probably means
that Jalen Hurts had a lesser passing day and a
lesser running day. So yeah, I look, you can go
with Jalen Hurts to looking at the passing props, but
I would be cautious of that because I really do

(32:52):
think the Philadelphia path to victory is a Saquon Barkley
big day here in this one.

Speaker 5 (32:58):
Speaking of MB and, I think we've pretty much nailed
down that this is a game of very few players
to want to bet on, to be willing to bet on.
MVP feels that way as well. Is there a market
and MVP that interests you at all? We've already I
think talked about enough. This is not the best one
to go off the board, and it seems kind of

(33:20):
odd to go off the board in some ways. But
I think there's three players Patch Mahomes, Saquon Barkley who
are at the top, and then Jalen Hurts.

Speaker 3 (33:27):
Have any of those three interested you.

Speaker 6 (33:31):
I probably will take both Mahomes and Barkley plus Brice
is John. I really just don't see and look, could
Hurts to what he did two years ago? And quite frankly,
if the Eagles had won the Super Bowl, Hurts would
have been unanimous in that game because Mahomes and Hurts
were I mean, look, you were basically tad. Even Mahames

(33:52):
was the slight tlightest of things better and that ended
up beating the margin in the game. But I think
it's Parkly, I think it's I think it's Mahomes. I
think the narrative is just so strong on the stake
quin say Quona ends of things that he's gonna have
that huge day for Philadelphia the win. And if these guys,

(34:13):
the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, who else is winning?

Speaker 5 (34:17):
It's Holmes, Yeah, I mean kel Kelsea is the only
other options.

Speaker 6 (34:23):
Only other option I do because there's a scenario where
Kelsey goes ten catches, one hundred and fifteen yards, multiple touchdowns,
and he could win it. But no one else is
doing that. None of the other wide receivers are capable
of that. They're not giving it the worthy even if
he has a huge day they'd give them mahomes in
that spot. And if they're running out of Damien again,

(34:43):
going back to Damien Williams again, if Damian Williams didn't
win it in twenty nineteen, there's this zero percent chance
a Kansas City running back can win it. So unless
if we get some hot look, we could get some
The other only way it's not one of those three
guys Unsay Chelsea goes off, is if we get some
odd ball nonsense like like that New England Ram super

(35:08):
Bowl a few years ago. Like that's the only way
I see it there.

Speaker 3 (35:11):
John, Let's please not got that New England Rams super
Bowl again.

Speaker 1 (35:16):
I'm good.

Speaker 6 (35:16):
I'm good with passing that too. Man, I don't need
that again.

Speaker 5 (35:20):
Yeah, I mean not a lot of fun to watch
that one. I think this Are you having fun talking
about this match? Is this a fun matchup to you?
Because I think when it first got you know it
was going to be Eagles Chiefs, and everybody first knew
that that was it's an immediate reaction of we don't
like either of these teams. This isn't a fun matchup.
Oh my god, it's these teams again? Uh, how is

(35:41):
this a fun matchup to you.

Speaker 6 (35:43):
Yes, of course it is, and people just need to
stop whining. That's really all it is. And also too,
there's always you know, it's very funny, John. You know,
the predominant other than the other, than the fringe that
I was talking about before, the predominant take from that
have been people from Boston. And I don't give a
crap what people from Boston have to say about this game.

(36:06):
I don't care. He just whatever, right, Like it's so funny,
Like this narrative that I'm about to do it to
go off topic here for a second, and I apologize,
but I think it'll be okay. It's so funny. You
got people being like, oh, Brady never got the calls
that this Kansas City team got. Do we not have

(36:29):
any memory past seventy years? Like what the heck is
wrong with everybody at this point? Like the New England
teams were much more unlikable than the Kansas City teams.
They got as many breaks as this Kansas City team,
probably even more. Belichick, I mean, Andy Reid is Andy

(36:50):
Reid is a saint in comparisons to what Bill Belichick
acted like in that run. It's just nonsense. This whole thing.
I mean, all the like all the Chiefs have done
all right, short, there have been some moments where where
the officiating has been has been questionable. Fine, but it
was questionable. I mean the the Eagles championship should have

(37:15):
come against the Jacksonville Jaguars if not for a horrible
officiating pong you remember that first name.

Speaker 3 (37:22):
That's right, you could have seen Foles in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 6 (37:27):
Like the mild jack play is one of like it
gets lost in history. Like that's one of the bigger
screw ups by the officials in the last fifteen years.
It legitimately caught the Jackson's Like, it's so funny the
Jacksonville Jaguars a Super Bowl and Blake Bortles a Super
Bowl appearance, which, by the way, was the greatest that

(37:48):
it would be the greatest anomaly in NFL history of
that and half.

Speaker 3 (37:52):
More than Nick Foles.

Speaker 6 (37:53):
But the Eagle team was unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (37:58):
That's true.

Speaker 6 (37:58):
That yeah, but that team wasn't not good though, No,
I mean you remember, like do you remember John? Forget that?
Like the Pittsburgh game is one of the most fun
playoff games. I remember that forty five to forty two
games you remember how bad that first playoff game they

(38:18):
had against Buffalo was, like they had one touchdown in
it and it was scored by your boy James O'Shaughnessy.
Like that's how bad. The game was also good that
I pulled James.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
Well done, but it just like.

Speaker 6 (38:34):
But but it's just it's the matchup is great. Is
there a little Kansas City fifty eighth? Sure, But most
of this is because people just love to whine and
whine about anything that doesn't go their way these days,
and it's so frustrating and it's so frustrating to see

(38:55):
the freaking New England era get rewritten. It's just shut
to shut up, like the New England era, like like
that was miserable and quite frankly, look, this may be
more dominant. And we're talking to me of Kansas City
rats off seven out of ten, which with fifteen, I
think it's employed they could do seven out of ten,
especially with the fact that in the AFC we love

(39:19):
making excuses for Josh Allen, We really love making exclusive
excuses for Lamar Jackson. At this point, Joe Burrow's team
hasn't been in the playoffs the last two years, like
who's beating them in the AFC until proven otherwise, but
they could keep going back at this ray.

Speaker 3 (39:40):
That is Jeff Parls. You can listen.

Speaker 5 (39:42):
You can see his tweets at Jeff Parls. You can
listen to him at Sports by the Book. Hosting that
for South Point Studios. What do you guys got going
on this weekend for the big game?

Speaker 6 (39:53):
Well, you know, we got our usual, our usual coverage.
We'll be there. We'll be uh, we'll be on the
air nine am on Thursday, nine am on Sunday Sunday.
We're still determining how long the show will be, but
it'll likely be an hour or two hours. Getting you
ready for the door is to open at the south
Point Party, the free the best free party in Las Vegas. John, So,

(40:17):
you happen to be coming out to Vegas for the
game and it comes to the South Point unbelievable party
with cheap drink and food costs and by the way,
no cover also to get in, which is good. You
just have to be able to grab a seat. And
then Saturday we're at a thirty in the morning Pacific time,
eleven thirty Eastern. And then Football Friday will be at
five o'clock Eastern time, book Banker's Goool Order. We're getting

(40:40):
you ready for the game on that Friday.

Speaker 5 (40:42):
More so than anything real quick, I'm seeing an amazing
menu for the big game food over at South Point.

Speaker 3 (40:46):
What's the first thing you're grabbing for the big game food, Manue?

Speaker 6 (40:50):
I I always, I always, I always just get the
chicken tenders. But it's look the beer prices are what
where's that? Man? It is? It is affordable, it is good.
It's a fun party up there, and also too, like John,
if you ever get your behind out here for March Madness,
that's also great March Madness party as well. So but yeah, no, uh,

(41:13):
by the way, John, I'm very curious to see how
this game plays out. I think the only thing I
feel one hundred percent certain of is we're going to
get a classic. We got the two best teams in
the NFL. We got the best quarterback in the NFL
against the best defense in the NFL. Uh, it's going
to be a heck of a game. And I know
once the game starts, until the first officiating call that

(41:35):
goes Kansas City goes Kansas City's ways, everyone will stop whining.
At least for a little bit.

Speaker 3 (41:40):
Yeah, that'll never happen. It's going to continue no matter what.

Speaker 5 (41:43):
But Jeff Carls people who love their complaining Johnson, Yes,
you know what, I'll love to complain a little bit
sometimes too.

Speaker 6 (41:51):
We all do. But it's ridiculous when it comes to
comes to this, it's really just whatever.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Just don't rewrite the.

Speaker 6 (41:58):
New England era because you're upset. Here's a new dynasty.

Speaker 3 (42:01):
Like, come on, that's a good way to end this.
Jeff Barls, thanks for joining me.

Speaker 5 (42:05):
Yeah, of course, John You can follow him at Jeff
Barrows on Twitter and of course Sports by the Book.
Over at Southpoint you can listen to as well. Plenty
of great programming there. You're listening to finish this story,
put your money where your mouth is over at cut.
Cut is a new way to bet to bet directly
against your friends and other users on sports, entertainment, politics,

(42:26):
and more. Go to cut dot com Kutt dot com.
We're actually gonna go so if you want to follow,
download the Cut betting app social betting platform that allows
user to wagers on the outcome of sports, politics, pop culture, finance,
and other events in a fun and engaging way. Download
Follow me along here. You can use the promo code
gambler over at CUT. Let's go over some of the

(42:48):
public bets that are available to be made over at CUT.

Speaker 3 (42:52):
That's next. Don't finish the story.

Speaker 1 (42:54):
The birds are on Bourbon Street and we're all over
it for you right here.

Speaker 3 (42:58):
I'm a gambler.

Speaker 5 (43:14):
Coming up at the top of the hour at seven
o'clock and it is gonna be Joe Tansey and Luke
r Caney continuing our coverage of the big game. Finish
the story. Joe and luc will have you for that
seven o'clock hour. Coming up next, I still.

Speaker 3 (43:31):
Have you till seven o'clock.

Speaker 5 (43:35):
Let's head on over to the CUT peer to peer
peer to peer social betting app.

Speaker 3 (43:41):
And there are plenty of plays on the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (43:45):
Now.

Speaker 5 (43:45):
The great thing about Cut, though, is that you can
create your own bet, you can create your own odds.

Speaker 3 (43:53):
I think this is a good opportunity.

Speaker 5 (43:55):
You know, I've been seeing it a lot, and this
is almost have put you runny where your mouth is
for maybe me and for some Eagles fans.

Speaker 3 (44:03):
But you can move this.

Speaker 5 (44:05):
Line, I think one way to entice if you really
like the Eagles, because I'm not gonna say, hey, go
on there, Kansas City could be a good bet. And
I think in some ways yes, and Parls lay that
out very well, that this is a game you still
want to lean towards Kansas City side because everybody's kind

(44:26):
of betting on Kansas City or betting on the Eagles.
Why wouldn't you want to go with the guy that's
won three Super Bowls already, that has already beat this
team in the Eagles before, that just seems in this
team Kansas City with Mahomes and Andy Reid, Steve spag No,
just seems unstoppable no matter what goes against them, no

(44:47):
matter what is not in their favor, if they always
just seem to win, and they're just that talented, that good,
and that's smart of a football team. So if you
want to overcut kutt dot Com, Kutt you can look
up as well on any of your app platforms that

(45:08):
you want to look up and download the app for
so you can find Kansas City bet. I think a
good way to do this though, And I've been seeing
a lot of alt spreads for the Eagles. If you
want to create your own bet, I would do that.
Why not take the Eagles now? You would have to
do something to entice somebody to take Kansas City. But
to me, minus two and a half minus three, get

(45:29):
yourself some more plus money there, because I think the
payout would be enticing. If you do like Eagles that much,
and I do, I'd be willing to take them more three.
I've seen all spreads of six and a half. That's
a little bit too much for me. I don't want
to go over a touchdown, but I'm seeing this game
around twenty eight, twenty four, twenty eight, twenty three. I

(45:50):
can go a little bit higher. If you want to
bet the Eagles money line. I'm sure there's somebody that
will be enticed enough to take Kansas City on the
other side, but I'm seeing a lot of Eagles love.
The enticing thing to do for me would go over
to cut again Kutt kutt dot com, and I would
actually bump up that Eagle spread a little bit. I'd

(46:11):
be enticed too to get more plus money out of it.
You're gonna entice somebody to try and get Kansas City
at a really good number. If you want to get
it at the field goal, it's gonna be tight. But
I think the Eagles are the better team. I think
they win this game, So that's one way to do it.
Also with cut, I think one of the interesting ones,
John Baptiste is doing Batiste bud Tiste, not Baptiste, bud

(46:34):
Tiste is doing the national anthem. I think that's going
to go over. That dude is a genius right now
and cut. The money line for the over one hundred
and twenty seconds is actually at plus one ten. I
would go over on that one because John Batiste is
a musical genius. He's going to play around with that
melody somehow, and in doing that, he's gonna lengthen the

(46:57):
national anthem.

Speaker 3 (46:57):
This guy's a genius. If you've ever seen it.

Speaker 5 (46:59):
There's great videos of John Batiste listening to I think
there's a video of him listening to a Green Day
song and putting piano to it. All he's hearing his vocals,
he puts piano to it. This dude is a genius.
He thinks of different ways and looks at melodies in
different ways. It's amazing. But also if you're gonna do that,
you're probably gonna make the thing longer. So I do
like that over one hundred twenty seconds at plus one ten.

(47:23):
Also the first what will the first commercial be? After kickoff? B?
So after kickoff you get to the first commercial breakup
like the game after kickoff? What will the first commercial? B?
Movie commercial? At plus three fifty. Now I only say
and I feel good about this one at plus three

(47:43):
fifty cuz Captain America comes out next week.

Speaker 3 (47:49):
They are going to one and they are going to
have a.

Speaker 5 (47:52):
Presence at the super Bowl, and they have almost unlimited
money as studio, and of course they're going to put
unlimited money in marketing with after how much money they
just paid Robert Downey Junior, after how much money they've
just paid Chris Evans, they're gonna want to put this
money back into the machine because it hasn't been as

(48:14):
good lately. And one way to do that is to
have your biggest, one of your biggest marquee names franchise.
Even though Chris Evans isn't Captain America anymore, Captain America
is still what of.

Speaker 3 (48:25):
Your marquee franchise names.

Speaker 5 (48:28):
You're gonna want to put something behind that, and I
think they will actually like it. A plus three to
fifty for that to be the first commercial, it's movie commercial.
I can't think of any other movies that are coming out,
like Wicked Part two is coming out. I don't think
they're gonna do anything yet with that, even though they could.
I wouldn't be surprised if we see a little.

Speaker 3 (48:45):
Bit of a teaser or something. But to me, Captain
America is gonna have a presence.

Speaker 5 (48:48):
I think it's the first commercial after the kickoff, So
I like that, or at least I like it getting
it plus three fifty. Plenty of ways though, to bet
over a cut again. Kutt Cut is a peer to
peer social betting platform that allows it to users a
wager on the outcome of sports, politics, pop culture, finance,
and other vets in a fun and engaging way. One
way I got into it the first way I got

(49:09):
into it with cut with the Oscars. Guess what's coming
up in March. Yeah, we got Oscars soon as well.
So plenty of ways to engage over cuts. Enough of
the opinions and hot takes, stop talking, start competing.

Speaker 3 (49:21):
That's a good way to do it.

Speaker 5 (49:22):
Jeff Parl said it. Everybody's whining nowadays. Stop the damn whining.
How about you put your money where your mouth is
start competing against your friends and other users to prove
who really knows what they're talking about. Cut is the
ultimate social gaming platform, a mixture of sports, social media,
and competitive fun. Put your money where your mouth is.
Join CUT today, So go download the app. Thank you

(49:43):
to them for joining, or at least for having a
presence here on the Gambler and finish the story.

Speaker 3 (49:49):
My name is John Jansen. That is it for me.

Speaker 5 (49:51):
You can follow me at Jay Jansen thirty four. Coming
up next to the Goat here the Gambler to my
favorite to listen to Joe Tansy and Luke Arcaney. They're
gonna be talking some big game some finish the story
coming up next. They have you for the seven o'clock
hour right here on the game.

Speaker 3 (50:17):
How about our quarterback? I knew he was gonna play
that way.

Speaker 1 (50:20):
I knew him. Don't doubt him.

Speaker 7 (50:22):
All he does is.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
Win all things Big Gang fifty nine right here, I'm
a gambler.

Speaker 1 (50:29):
Welcome on it, everybody.

Speaker 8 (50:30):
The Eagles are gonna try and finish the story against
the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday and Super Bowl fifty nine.
And to get you locked in on all the player
props for super Bowl fifty nine, myself, Joe Tansey, and
Luke Arcaney here to go through the Eagles and Chiefs players,

(50:51):
prop player props throughout the game, and look, yeah, you
can bet on everything imaginable here at Fox Sports, the
Gambler and a drafting and sportsbook with the Super Bowl.
Hell My wife texts me everyone she has an idea
during Super Bowl week of like, well, this should be
a prop bet, so like the list we have on

(51:11):
like our hypothetical sports book here at the Tansa house.
It's like how many times they're gonna thank God in
the in the post game?

Speaker 1 (51:20):
She's she's like how many.

Speaker 8 (51:21):
She's like how many curse words are there going to
be in the postgame speeches? And I'm like, well, you
have to give me a number. So now now we're
setting hypothetical numbers on these fun props as well. So
we're really getting into the mood here. You can tell
we've had a lot of time while the baby's napping
that the two of us are just coming up with
ideas and throw anything out there. So we're at least

(51:43):
in the betting mode. Fan mode I've like blocked off
until Sunday, but fan mode we are completely locked in
I'm sorry, betting mode.

Speaker 1 (51:50):
We're completely locked in fan mode.

Speaker 8 (51:51):
I've blocked that off Sunday and then I will be
an absolute nervous wreck the second I wake up on
Sunday morning.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
But to start, Luke, look, how do you kind of
approach the player prop thing? Because it's weird.

Speaker 8 (52:04):
I know a lot and I know a few people
that we work with here at the Gambler don't like
betty against their their favorite team, and definitely don't do
it in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (52:13):
I don't care.

Speaker 8 (52:14):
I kind of see numbers, I see matchups, I see Look, yes,
I'm obviously gonna be rooting for the Eagles, but if
something really sticks out, I'm gonna I'm gonna play it.
How do you kind of approach this? Because I know
it's that everybody's got their own feel for it.

Speaker 1 (52:27):
Yeah, I mean it's.

Speaker 7 (52:27):
It's definitely a little tough for me because especially in
a game like the Super Bowl. Obviously, I'm not sitting here,
I'm not putting like Chiefs money line in a parlay obviously,
but like I think we've seen how the Eagles, for
an example, have defended tight ends.

Speaker 1 (52:42):
I think we all know the Chiefs have a good
tight end and I think that's gonna be a guy.

Speaker 7 (52:45):
We're probably gonna sort of get into a lot over
the next probably forty minutes.

Speaker 1 (52:49):
But yeah, it's tough there. There's sort of a fine
line for me.

Speaker 7 (52:53):
I'm not putting serious money on Chiefs players, but you know,
there's sort of fun parlays that we you know, we'll
throw together of.

Speaker 1 (53:03):
Certain guys a HUNTERD plus each.

Speaker 7 (53:05):
That'll be some looks there, but as far as like
main props, it'll probably be more Eagles focus for.

Speaker 8 (53:12):
Me, absolutely, And I think the best way to start
this whole thing before we get into building the same
game parlayer two for Super Bowl for the guys MVP,
because let's be completely honest with ourselves, if the Eagles
are going to win this game, there's value on an
MVP because you see Saquon Barkley at plus two sixty,

(53:34):
Jalen Hurts at plus three fifty, there would be only
two Eagles players under plus the thousand.

Speaker 1 (53:39):
Patrick Mahomes is obviously the MVP favorite for the Chiefs.

Speaker 8 (53:46):
I look at this game of what there's like, maybe
I think a case for three players outside of that
top three bubble, and if you want to include Travis
Kelcey and that make it a four. You can, because
I think Kelsey's going to be included and used a
lot by the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (54:02):
But if you look at the the MVP.

Speaker 8 (54:03):
And look, if you want to bet Saque, bet Saque
by all means like he's gonna have a heavy workload
and plus two sixty is a nice price. But I
kind of want to jump into the longer shots. I'm
ruling out defensive players, Okay, I have to. History just
tells me I have to rule out defensive players. The

(54:25):
only caveat to that is you need to blow out
the last four defensive MVPs. So this goes back to
Ray Lewis in two thousand and one, a Super Bowl, which,
by the way, I was grounded for. I don't know
why I still remember that the Ravens Giants. I believe
Kerry Collins was the quarterback on one of those teams.

Speaker 6 (54:47):
Yeah, I was.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
I was grounded for the Super Bowl one year. I
think it was had to be eleven.

Speaker 8 (54:52):
So yeah, I can tell you a lot of things
that have happened in Super Bowls since, Like I think
the first one I remember is ninety seven, ninety six
one of the Packers wins. But anyway, besides the point,
there Ray Lewis von Miller and then the two random
ones Malcolm Smith Dexter Jackson all one defensive MVPs with

(55:16):
a winning margin of fourteen or more points. That's the
historical trend on defensive MVPs since two thousand and one.
So unless you think the Eagles are gonna go, you know,
beat the Brakes off the Chiefs by all means go ahead,
and Zach Bond and plus nine thousand, Jalen Carter plus
seven thousand, those.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
Are are worth the risk if you believe that's the
game script.

Speaker 8 (55:40):
But history tells us in these last twenty years that
for defensive player to win, there's.

Speaker 1 (55:47):
Got to be a blowt. I just don't see that happening.

Speaker 8 (55:49):
And history has also told us that Mahomes plays in
inclosed super Bowls, so the two of them kind of
just don't go together.

Speaker 1 (55:57):
Yeah, I think it's tough. It's it.

Speaker 7 (56:00):
Would be very hard for a defender to win Super
Bowl MVP, specifically in the Super Bowl. I mean even
when you go back to like Seahawks Patriots, I mean
like those Malcolm Malcolm Butler didn't even win he didn't
even win it in that one, Like it's it's just
it is.

Speaker 1 (56:17):
Very when the Seahawks beat the prodcrests.

Speaker 7 (56:20):
Yeah, yeah, just like it's it's not common, it's it's
it's just not a thing, and it needs to.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
Get into the fact of, like basically you said, a.

Speaker 7 (56:28):
Blowout or it's some massive, massive play to even have
a chance, like Malcolm Butler's interception, the fact that he
had the game winning pick with no time left and
he's still didn't wins Super Bowl MVP, like that just
sort of tells you how they look at the award. Honestly,
if you're looking at it, I I think the pick

(56:50):
for me would would probably be Hurts from a square
point of view.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
But I mean, like, if you're looking at Eagles offense.

Speaker 7 (56:59):
Like I really think the only two other options that
aren't Hurts or Saquon is one of the two receivers,
I mean aj Brown thirty five to one, Devonte Smith's
sixty five to one. Like I don't I don't see
Dallas Goddard winning Super Bowl MVP, like I don't see
I don't see anybody else on the offense just winning
super Like I don't see there being even a chance

(57:22):
of anybody other than Hurts, Saquon or either one of
the receivers winning Super Bowl MVP as an guy on
offense for the Eagles.

Speaker 1 (57:30):
I just don't think it's likely.

Speaker 7 (57:32):
But it sort of gets down to the fact is
if you think Hurts is going to have a big game,
and if you sit there and you like Hurts his
passing yards, or if you're sitting there and you like Hurts.

Speaker 1 (57:44):
It you know, an all line of maybe even like.

Speaker 7 (57:49):
Up towards like the middle two hundreds, that's a spot
where I think you maybe just take them to win
MVP if you think they're gonna win the game. Because
if Hurts goes out there and and he plays, and
he puts up two hundred and fifty passing yards and
a touchdown or two, I think he's gonna win the award.

Speaker 1 (58:08):
It's it's going to take.

Speaker 7 (58:10):
A incredibly good and memorable game for Saquon to win
the award. And while I think he's definitely capable of
doing that, this doesn't scream like a game to me
where Hurts goes out like he has in the pass
and throws for one hundred and thirty yards. Like I
just don't think that's gonna be the case with Hurts.

(58:30):
So as far as like the square point of view,
I would I would probably look at Hurts and I
also sit there and I look at Travis Kelce fifteen
to one.

Speaker 1 (58:41):
But then I sit there and say, one, I'm not
betting a chief don't let me be. But two, like,
I find it very very.

Speaker 7 (58:52):
Unlikely that if the Chiefs win the game, it goes
to anybody other than the Homes, Like, I just don't
if the Chiefs win, Mahomes is going to play great.
That's that's like he's going to have to play a
great football game for the Chiefs to win. And if
he plays a great football game, like I don't think

(59:13):
they're going to give it to a guy like Travis
Kelsey who would maybe have one hundred yards and a touchdown,
like they're going to. The NFL loves giving Super Bowl
MVP to the faces of their league, and if if
they can give it to a guy like Mahomes, if
he wins, I think That's where I'm at there.

Speaker 1 (59:30):
So I don't know, it feels like a year to
me where it it really is just like the square
sort of MVP bets to me, I'll throw one.

Speaker 8 (59:40):
This goes against what I just said about defensive players,
But if there's one single defensive player that you're betting
for Super Bowl MVP from the Eagles, it's actually somebody
who has longer odds to win Super Bowl MVP than
Kenny Pickett.

Speaker 1 (59:59):
Is he right on Durham on DraftKings? Believe it or not,
he is.

Speaker 8 (01:00:03):
CJ. Gardner Johnson is the defensive MVP pick from the Eagles.
The reason I say that Patrick Mahomes has been interception
prone in the Super Bowl, not in the postseason as
a whole, but in the Super Bowl he has thrown interceptions. Well,
who's the ballhawk on the Eagles defense. That's CJ. Gardner Johnson.

(01:00:24):
He comes into this game as the only player on
either side with six interceptions. We've seen him be that
ballhawk already in the postseason. Now you're gonna have to
score a touchdown. You're gonna have to have a very
memorable moment a Lah James Harrison, and heck, he didn't
even win like that the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (01:00:47):
He had that pick and he didn't even win.

Speaker 8 (01:00:49):
It like some of the some of the most memorable
interception returns in Super Bowl history don't come with the
MVP award, But I will say, if you're going to
bet someone along those lines, it's CJ. Gardner Johnson one
because the number is astronomical. It's plus twenty five thousand.

Speaker 6 (01:01:11):
Two.

Speaker 8 (01:01:12):
Jalen Carter needs to have like five sacks. Yeah, Zach
Bond needs to have probably has to break the Super
Bowl record for tackles because the expectation for him right
that the the the baseline is what eight nine tackles,
So that's not gonna that's not gonna wow anybody. He's
got to have like multiple tackles for loss. He's got

(01:01:33):
to have a sack or an interception. Something has to
be extraordinary.

Speaker 7 (01:01:37):
Back on that line of force, fumble, strip, sack, like
it's it's got to be a notable play. Like like
they're not going to give yeah, Like like I don't
think they're giving Zach bad super Bowl MVP because he
has like seventeen tackles in a game.

Speaker 1 (01:01:51):
No, Like they're like they're not just going to hand
if it's defense it it.

Speaker 7 (01:01:56):
Almost gets game for that, Yeah, And it almost gets
to the point to me where I feel like if
a defender wins it, the play he wins it off
of basically.

Speaker 1 (01:02:05):
Has to be like the biggest play of the game.
Like that's that's kind of where you're.

Speaker 7 (01:02:09):
At because you've seen the guys make the biggest plays
of these Super Bowls and they still haven't won. Granted,
if Patrick Mahomes is driving down the field with two
minutes left and the Eagles are up free and Jalen
Hurts has one hundred and seventy five passing yards and
Saquon Barkley has ninety rushing yards and Nolan Smith comes
off the edge and sacks Mahomes, fumbles the ball, picks

(01:02:30):
it up and runs it in for a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (01:02:33):
Maybe he's got a shot. But like it's it's gotta
be something massive.

Speaker 8 (01:02:37):
For it, for the it has to be something to
break the Mahomes fourth quarter narrative. Yeah, I think that
that's what it has to do. I will say from
a looking at it from a neutral perspective. Look, it's
very hard to convince Ben Travis Kelsey, right, because even
if he has.

Speaker 1 (01:02:55):
One twenty and a touchdown, who's throwing him the ball? Right?
It's Mahomes. The only thing I put into this one.

Speaker 8 (01:03:02):
If if he has if Kelsey has a multi touchdown game,
which is possible. There's very what light rumors that he
might retire at the end of the year.

Speaker 1 (01:03:13):
That might be.

Speaker 8 (01:03:13):
Then, you know, even Tom Brady didn't win all all
the Super Bowl MVPs. When the Patriots were winning their game,
I believe I think Edelman won one in the in
the what the twenty to three.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
Game, Yeah, Edelman won. Edelman won that one.

Speaker 7 (01:03:33):
And then I think, well, Brady was the obviously, Yeah,
Brady's a five and what he has seven?

Speaker 8 (01:03:40):
So it was a yeah, Deon Branch against the Eagles, Okay, yeah,
it was was the other one in the And if
this is the type of quarterback that we're we're comparing
Mahomes too because we have him in statistically, that is
what we have it. And Dean Branch in that game
had eleven catches for one thirty three, no touchdown, but

(01:04:00):
eleven catches one thirty three out gaining too by eleven yards.
And then the Edelman, Edelman went off in the game
against I'm sorry that was the Rams game.

Speaker 1 (01:04:13):
That was not the Yeah, that was the really bad
football sport.

Speaker 8 (01:04:17):
Yeah, and he had and he had ten for one. Yeah,
So that's that's your baseline for wide receivers is most
likely an eight to ten catch game, and then you
gotta be in triple digits. And if you look at
the Chiefs, there's just nobody else on that on their roster.
Worthy's gonna get a ton of touches. They'll they'll have

(01:04:38):
a few run game run game plays designed for him.
They've been trying to force feed the ball the Hollywood Brown.
But even in that offense, I don't see him being
a ten catch, one hundred yard type guy. But what
you do see with the Eagles is AJ Brown can
be that guy at plus thirty five hundred. DeVante Smith
can be that guy at plus sixty five hundred. And

(01:05:00):
there's a lot of stats going around about DeVante Smith's
success against Steve Spegnel defenses. I'd also add he's got
a pretty good knack for playing in these big games before.
I mean, he broke onto the scene in that Alabama
Georgia title game as a freshman caught the game winning pass.

Speaker 1 (01:05:16):
So I look at DeVante Smith, I probably favor him
over A J.

Speaker 6 (01:05:20):
Brown.

Speaker 7 (01:05:21):
If I'm going to pick a long shot here, Yeah,
I think just because of the number. I mean, I
think the number is way better. And I think both
guys have the chance to do the same thing like
I don't. I think both guys have the capability to
have ten catches for one hundred and ten yards in
a touch.

Speaker 1 (01:05:36):
One of them is one of them is going to
be guarded by Trent McDuffie.

Speaker 6 (01:05:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (01:05:41):
Yeah, the way we talk about Quinnon Mitchell and shutting
down whoever it may be on the Chiefs offense, Well,
mcduffee's going to be attached to the hip with a J.
Brown or DeVante Smith in every play. So I think
that also to me, I would shift to AJ Brown,
which then to me, to'd be like, oh, Davante Smith

(01:06:02):
gets the bigger workload. And I think that goes perfectly
into the player props for this game as a whole.
Look in terms of what we're looking at with receptions
and receiving yards. Let's specifically talk about the big guns here.
Travis Kelcey is over six and a half, Davante Smith

(01:06:22):
over under four and a half, a J. Brown over
under five and a half, and then the Dallas Goddard
is getting an immense, immense amount of love on the
prop market already. I think earlier in the I think
earlier in last week he was the most bet player
to date totals it is, but his total was pretty

(01:06:44):
low in the forties. Now it's fifty two and a
half and four and a half receptions, and then in
terms of receiving yards, you have A j Brown at
seventy one and a half, Kelsey at sixty one and
a half, Xavier Worthy fifty seven and a half, and
Davante Smith at fifty with Dallas Goddard. My initial reaction
to all of those numbers is the Kelsey line is

(01:07:06):
too low, even though he didn't play well last week. Yeah,
I think it's just look, I go off these trends here.
Now it's fourteen at the last fifteen where he's had
seventy plus receiving yards. I think if you're using any
type of same game parlay for the Super Bowl, I
think having Kelsey at sixty plus receiving yards is kind

(01:07:27):
of the foundation for where you need to be. Because
it's the Super Bowl, you know he's going to get targets.
It's just a matter of how the Eagles contain him.
He can get the sixty yards and the Eagles can
still win.

Speaker 6 (01:07:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 7 (01:07:40):
No, I mean that's it's probably my it's probably my
favorite number on the board. I mean, I think we've
seen was it the Houston game that we were all
over all week, big game Kelsey and they and they
had the numbers too low and he sort of number
fifty one and a half and over it on like
three catches like it's that's a low number. I I

(01:08:03):
do like Kelsey a lot, and I think, like you said,
I know, the kind of style that you sort of
play a lot is just those those sort of alt
lines like if if you look to.

Speaker 1 (01:08:12):
A to an AJ, that a good round number.

Speaker 7 (01:08:16):
Yeah, if you look to the AJ Kelsey sixty, Smitty fifty.
I will say this, I love Devonte Smith over fifty
two and a half. I think just just based off
of like you said, the issue with the Spags defense
for the last three years, the uh so he so
he's matched up against Bags three times, he's had seven
for one twenty two, seven for one hundred and six

(01:08:39):
for ninety nine. He so, I mean he's he's sort
over that line every single game that he's played the
Spags defense. I will say this too, I do, and
I gave this out a few days ago. I do
love AJ Brown over five and a half because I
think the value that it is really good. It's over
five and a half at plus one oh nine, I'd

(01:09:00):
find it really hard to believe that the Eagles win
this game and AJ Brown doesn't have six catches.

Speaker 1 (01:09:06):
That's kind of where I'm at. If I'm gonna sit here.

Speaker 7 (01:09:09):
All week and I deep down do I truly think
the Eagles are gonna win this football game. They're not
gonna win if AJ Brown doesn't have over six catches,
Like I just I don't see that happening. So especially
because it's at that plus one oh nine, I'm gonna
probably look look there too. But as far as receptions,

(01:09:30):
I mean, it really just depends how much you think
Hurts is gonna throw the ball. If you think they're
gonna throw a good amount and basically like they did
two years ago in the Super Bowl, I mean, it's
an easy over on receptions for me, for Smitty, it's
an easy over for Brown.

Speaker 1 (01:09:47):
Like that's where I'm at.

Speaker 7 (01:09:48):
I mean, those guys together would be eleven receptions basically
combined out of their two lines. If Hurts is throwing
the ball thirty times and he's completing twenty four of them,
let's say, I would have to guess that half of
them are probably most likely going to be Smith and aj.

(01:10:09):
I don't think Goddard's gonna have nine catches. I don't
think John Dotson's going to touch the ball that much.
Like it's at all. If it's going to be the
Eagles and the Eagles are gonna put up points, I
think the Eagles are gonna put up thirty in this game.

Speaker 1 (01:10:23):
Like if if they're going to.

Speaker 7 (01:10:25):
Put up the points, it's it's going to have to
be those two receivers in the passing game.

Speaker 8 (01:10:30):
Here's a fun fact. Davonte Smith has caught every one
of his twelve targets this postseason. Love that love that
don't have four, only had four receptions in each game.
But he has not he has not dropped or a
target in his direction has not been caught. That that's
that's pretty impressive. I think a lot of that has

(01:10:51):
to do with Jalen Hurts too. I think the point
you make with the Eagles, right, it's three guys. If
you're looking at receiving props, it's Smith, it's Brown, it's Goddard,
and that's it. I think Ko Katara maybe gets involved
one or two passes, maybe they have like a gimmick
play for Jahan dots. And I don't believe he's gonna
get much. You know, he's gonna be running routes. He

(01:11:13):
ain't gonna be getting much in terms of production.

Speaker 7 (01:11:15):
I don't think we're gonna be looking at Jahan dats
for that much, especially with the two big dogs. But
what fascinates me is the Chiefs because we know they
have Kelsey and we know zaf You're Worthy is the
very clear number one wide receiver in that unit.

Speaker 1 (01:11:33):
But it is just one big mishmash of guys after that,
where who knows who's gonna get the deep ball?

Speaker 8 (01:11:44):
Because I think that's what if you're if you're betting
the receiving lines here, Juju Smith, Schuster, Noah Gray, DeAndre Hopkins,
Kareem Hunts and my JP Ryan and Hesea Pacheco all
are listed over under one and a half receptions and
then you have Kelsey at six and a half, worthy
of five and a half in Hollywood, Brown is it

(01:12:06):
at three and a half, which I think is fascinating
just because the targets they might give him, I think
you might have to buy a low with DeAndre Hopkins.

Speaker 3 (01:12:17):
Yeah, I think.

Speaker 7 (01:12:18):
I also think getting two receptions at plus one twenty
six is is would be a good look. I like
my issue with betting Chiefs props a lot in the
past is I think you get into these games and
like these bigger games, and like I think you know
deep down, like it's it's gonna be Kelsey every single time,

(01:12:38):
but like it can't.

Speaker 1 (01:12:41):
Just be Kelsey.

Speaker 7 (01:12:43):
And and where the hard part has been if you're
betting the Chiefs elsewhere other than Kelsey the last few
years is like Patrick Mahomes since he lost Tyreek Hill,
like he hasn't, I don't. There hasn't been a true
like a quotes on stream wide receiver one like for

(01:13:04):
the Chiefs and and yes, now I would say it's
definitely Xavier worthy, but like he's not going to complete
all of his passes to one wide receiver for sixty
minutes of football makes somewhere.

Speaker 8 (01:13:18):
What makes all those lines so tantalizing is you see
Juju Smith Schuster just popped out of nowhere for two
for sixty in the AFC Championship Game, like p Ryan
had one catch for seventeen years. Their third down back
but they they're mixing Kareem hunt in and Isaiah Pacheco
isn't really.

Speaker 1 (01:13:35):
The reliable guy there. I mean.

Speaker 8 (01:13:40):
You have to think there's like and the reason why
it loops you in here with the Chiefs and betting
the fringe guys because the numbers are so low is
because one, maybe two of these long plays go to
somebody else just to free up more space for Kelsey. Right,

(01:14:02):
that's the that's really the thinking behind it. You know,
look at the divisional round, Noah gray Head three for
thirteen and that's it. So you're you're looking at one
guy to become the number three, number four, but you
have no idea in any situation who that guy is.
I've looked at Hopkins the last two rounds and like

(01:14:23):
you're supposed to come in and be the guy. I
think he had a target in the red zone against
the Bills. Something tells me that they're going to find
a way to get him involved. It's his first super Bowl.
They acquired him for this reason. Like you're kind of
just and you can't really use last year's stats from

(01:14:44):
the Super Bowl to because Worthy wasn't on the team.

Speaker 7 (01:14:49):
Yeah, it's like you're like getting to a point now
where like they finally have like the that threat other
than Kelsey, they they have the speed stir.

Speaker 1 (01:14:59):
But like once again, it can't just be Kelsey and Worthy.

Speaker 7 (01:15:04):
I will say I if I were to look at
a guy down in that one and a half reception range,
I think based off of what we said of how
the Eagles guard tight ends and how they struggled, I
think I would maybe look at Noah Gray over one
and a half at plus one oh nine, Like I
don't think he's gonna go out and have five six
catches for a touchdown. But like if the Eagles, I

(01:15:26):
mean we saw Higbee, what Higbee had like seven catches
against US, zach Ertz had eleven against US.

Speaker 1 (01:15:33):
Like it's gonna be.

Speaker 7 (01:15:35):
A lot of Kelsey, but the Eagles game plan is
going to be a shut down Travis Kelcey. So if
if they're focused on Kelsey, I mean they're gonna get
I'd have to imagine that Noah Great gets some sort
of looks and I would trust a tight end to
get open against the Eagles more than I would a

(01:15:56):
wide receiver at this point, especially like I mean those
receivers down the board, Like if you put Juju up
against Degene or like if you put Hopkins up against
Slagh like, guys are getting open man like.

Speaker 1 (01:16:12):
I think that the better way to look at it
is who's going to run the routes across the middle? Exactly?

Speaker 6 (01:16:16):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (01:16:17):
And if is that worthy? Like I don't, but it's Hollywood.
I don't want to bet Hollywood. I don't.

Speaker 7 (01:16:24):
I don't think it's I don't think that is like,
that's like that That's one of the last people I
would probably look at.

Speaker 1 (01:16:29):
Is it's it's just so weird to me.

Speaker 7 (01:16:33):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:16:33):
Maybe it's maybe it's right in front of us.

Speaker 9 (01:16:35):
Maybe it's juju, like I think because if you look
at if you look at who the Chiefs have, Hopkins
is going to be on the outside, I would have
to assume Brown is going to be on the outside.

Speaker 8 (01:16:48):
And some past I think the past they completed the
juju that was the big one against the Bills was
across the middle.

Speaker 1 (01:16:56):
They don't really have any like Justin.

Speaker 8 (01:16:59):
Watson his own is been there like fifteen to twenty
five yard intermediate threat.

Speaker 1 (01:17:05):
So I think it is.

Speaker 8 (01:17:05):
I think probably the conclusion is if you're not gonna bet,
if you're gonna If you're gonna bet a third Chiefs player,
it's probably gonna be gray. Just from the tight end perspective,
I'm more fascinated to see if how much they commit
to the to the rushing game, because it really hasn't
been that great and it's very clear that Kareem.

Speaker 1 (01:17:26):
Hunt is Overchecko.

Speaker 8 (01:17:28):
Heck Patrick Mahomes has a higher rushing yard prop than
Isaiah Pachecko at this point, it's an eight yard difference
between the two. I would actually look into Kareem Hunt
at forty four and a half and something along those lines. Again,
it's kind of a very low total you're betting on.
Maybe I'd kind of put that in the same game

(01:17:50):
Parlay at forty. But really the rushing props that will
get the most attention are Saquon Barkley at one twelve
and a half and Jalen her It's at thirty eight
and a half.

Speaker 7 (01:18:01):
Looks love incredibly, it looks incredibly enticing. Yeah, I like
that number a lot. As far as the Russian, Yeah,
I don't. It's it's been weird.

Speaker 1 (01:18:11):
Like you said, I don't.

Speaker 7 (01:18:13):
I don't want any ounce of Checko like I I
guess it would have to be Kareem Hunt.

Speaker 1 (01:18:19):
Then yeah, I just I don't know, like I don't.

Speaker 7 (01:18:24):
I don't see the Chiefs going out against us and
and and pounding the run and and granted if he
if he got the forty five yards, then they're not
pounding the run.

Speaker 1 (01:18:34):
But then that over would obviously hits. Then you hate bet,
but like it's I don't, I don't.

Speaker 8 (01:18:41):
I I think I found the bet that in the
rushing yard prop that we can all get around and
circle Jalen Hurts first quarter rushing yards over six and
a half.

Speaker 6 (01:18:51):
I like that.

Speaker 8 (01:18:52):
I think that's where you have to look. And here's
the way I look at it from the Eagles. But
of course you want to get Saquon Barkley involved. But
one of the ways you could potentially open up a
little more space for saque not like he needs more space,
but in this matchup, maybe the run option game gets
into it, or if her task to scramble, you know,

(01:19:14):
if if Chris Jones or George Carlotis gets in the
in the backfield, maybe he's forced to scramble on a
passing down. I think he'll have one or two, maybe
even three rushing attempts in the first quarter.

Speaker 1 (01:19:27):
I'm willing to.

Speaker 8 (01:19:28):
Stick my neck out on that Saque at twenty seven
and a half first quarter rushing yards, Yes, it's attainable.

Speaker 1 (01:19:36):
No, I will not be betting it. It's it's the
number for Saque.

Speaker 8 (01:19:41):
I think if I'm going in any direction with Saquon Barkley,
it's touchdown score.

Speaker 3 (01:19:47):
Yeah, It's just.

Speaker 8 (01:19:50):
It's the super Bowl. It's incredibly hard to run for
one hundred yards in the Super Bowl. It's incredibly hard
just to run for one hundred yards in the playoff game.
And Saque's made it look very easy.

Speaker 1 (01:20:00):
And can he do it? Yes?

Speaker 8 (01:20:02):
And what would I say, were you know shot from
the rooftops. Don't bet on Saquon Barkley.

Speaker 1 (01:20:08):
No, of course not. But me personally, it's just one
twelve and a half is a little too too big
for me. Yeah, it's big. I mean, but we've we've
seen it, and that's the thing.

Speaker 7 (01:20:20):
But you can also go back to the stat and
I mean, nobody's had Saquon Barkley obviously, but there hasn't
been a team that's ran for what over one hundred
yards against.

Speaker 1 (01:20:29):
The Chiefs since was it? Week one? And I believe
it was Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 7 (01:20:35):
It was some some crazy stat like that they don't
they don't allow these these big hundred and ten hundred
and twenty yard rushing games Grant.

Speaker 1 (01:20:44):
Believe allowed as a team, they've allowed over one hundred. Yeah,
but it's it's more the rusher itself, right, right. But granted,
nobody's had Saquon Barkley.

Speaker 7 (01:20:53):
So the issue I have with betting Saquon's lines are
it takes one, Like the second he breaks for a
sixty seventy yarder, you're gonna hit his over like you're
gonna hit it every time. Because if he goes for
if he racks up fifteen yards in the first quarter

(01:21:16):
and he breaks a sixty eight yarder in the second quarter,
I mean you're going in a halftime, you're at eighty
five yards already.

Speaker 1 (01:21:23):
So it's like it's just it's hard to convince me
not to bet it. It's just it's a really big line.

Speaker 6 (01:21:30):
Yeah.

Speaker 8 (01:21:32):
I love that Hurts is at thirty eight and a half.
I really do think his legs will play a role
in this game. I think the Mahomes line actually at
twenty nine and a half might be a little two.

Speaker 6 (01:21:41):
Too big.

Speaker 8 (01:21:42):
I know, he's been able to use his legs and
he gets the ten to fifteen yards once or twice
each game. I'm just not like a full blown believer
in that one either. But I think if we're starting
to build out our same game parlay for the Super Bowl, Luke,
I think there's three, maybe four pretty obvious options that

(01:22:02):
the two of us can agree on, and that's Kelsey
at sixty receiving yards, which is I still think that
number is super low. Regardless of my Eagles fanhood or not,
I think Jalen honestly look Travis Kelcey to have sixty
receiving yards and Jalen Hurts to have forty rushing yards

(01:22:25):
pays out over plus two hundred.

Speaker 1 (01:22:27):
I think, just in general, like, yeah, yeah, I think
that's money. That's a mite right there.

Speaker 8 (01:22:34):
I think forget that, you know, whatever legs we may add,
I think that has to be your base for the
same game parlay for this game. We already went over
what Kelsey can do and how many targets he's going
to get, and I really do think Hurts is going
to be have to use his legs for Eagles to
win this game. I can't just be all Saquon Barkley,
and I think a few scrambles as well play a

(01:22:56):
role in this. I think if you use Kelsey at
sixty recis even yards, hurts it at forty rushing yards
and build from there, I think that's a pretty good
base for any same game parlor you play for Sunday.

Speaker 7 (01:23:08):
Yeah, and I will say, if you take those two
legs and you add in any and you add te
Quon any time.

Speaker 1 (01:23:15):
It's up to plus four fifty. So I mean, if
you like Saquon and get in the end zone.

Speaker 7 (01:23:20):
You said if you want, if you're going to touch
anything Saquon, it's probably gonna be a touchdown.

Speaker 1 (01:23:24):
I mean, that's Saquon's.

Speaker 7 (01:23:26):
Getting into the end zone on Sunday, like I think
he is. He is getting into the end zone on Sunday.

Speaker 6 (01:23:33):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:23:34):
That that's a really that's a really good base.

Speaker 7 (01:23:37):
I would say to at least start off even sort
of without the Tekuon like you said. If I did,
and I was saying I really liked Smitty, Uh, if
you added Smitty fifty plus to that, that takes you
up to over.

Speaker 1 (01:23:52):
Five to one.

Speaker 7 (01:23:52):
It's like plus five fifty with Smitty. But yeah, there's
a lot of I think angles you can go as
far as the Eagles side for the Chiefs, like we
said it, it seems very like to players as far
as props quarterback like it is now, like as far
as passing yard props, like how do you look at those?

(01:24:16):
I know you stick to sort of skill positions a lot,
but like right now, Patrick Mahomes is that over under a.

Speaker 1 (01:24:26):
Fifty and a half and Jalen Hurts is at to
eleven and a half. So actually, the way the way,
the way, the way I look at this from the
same game. Part of that perspective, I think you have
to look at.

Speaker 8 (01:24:44):
If if you assume Saquon Barkley has a pretty decent
game right and gets the fifteen to twenty touches that
he requires in a in a playoff game, the passing
attempts passing yards for Jillen Herds are a pass from
just because I don't know how much he's going to

(01:25:04):
have to throw. If Saquon Barkley does have a great game,
what I will say, if you look at Patrick Mahomes's history,
there are seven games in his playoff career in which
he's attempted more than forty passes. The top two are
Super Bowls, three of the top five are Super Bowls.

(01:25:28):
Even in wins, he's throwing the ball. And in his
playoff career there's only been He's played twenty playoff game,
just insane, he's had at least thirty pass attempts in
sixteen of those. Sixteen of twenty he's had thirty pass attempts.
It's a very small leg to add for a same

(01:25:50):
game parlay. But I think if you're looking at the
Kelsey the hurts, Yeah, who is he going to throw to?
I get that point, But if you look at their
rushing attack, isn't much there? Yeah, right, And I think
in terms of attempts, you don't have to complete the pass.

Speaker 1 (01:26:07):
So I would look into you.

Speaker 8 (01:26:09):
Know, we're looking at Travis Kelce sixty hurts, forty rush
a sake, one anytime touchdown, and Patrick Mahomes have thirty
plus pass attempts. That pays out a plus four to
thirty at DraftKings Sports Book. I think that's a nice
little bild if you don't like the the mango odds,
I think that's a nice little build to have. You

(01:26:31):
can expand on that as well. But I think that's
the that's the way to look at this game in
terms of what you know about both of these teams.
And I would even I mean, heck, based off those numbers,
you can probably increase a little bit with the the
Mahomes passing attempts, the Russian yards as well.

Speaker 1 (01:26:50):
But which with the actual.

Speaker 7 (01:26:52):
Process is I see is over under right now thirty
six and a half. As far as attempts, Hurts is
at twenty seven and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:27:03):
As far as.

Speaker 7 (01:27:03):
Completions, Mahomes is twenty four and a half, Hurts is
eighteen and a half. I will sa over twenty four
and a half completions for Mahomes plus one oh five.

Speaker 1 (01:27:14):
I'll also say I'll be bidding Patrick Mahomes a thrown interception.
I will be too.

Speaker 8 (01:27:19):
Yes, if you look again, this is just history. Patrick
Mahomes played in twenty postseason games. We have a very
large sample size of what he can do in a
postseason game. He's had eight interceptions, forty three touchdowns, eight interceptions.
Five of those interceptions, including two multi pick games, have

(01:27:40):
come in the Super Bowl, two against San Francisco, two
against Tampa Bay, another one against San Francisco. Of course,
begain the Eagles. He had one of two and three touchdowns.
That was one of his lower games in terms of
passing attempts and passing the yards in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (01:27:57):
But again, if you're looking at this historical sample size,
because we have.

Speaker 8 (01:28:00):
Such a a big sample size on Mahomes and Kelsey's
probably the only other player where you have this big
of a sample size, I think Patrick Mahomes to throw
an interception looks pretty enticing given his history in the
Super Bowl. It's it's pretty much near even money for

(01:28:21):
him to have that. I would look into that. And
then if you're gonna defensive props, aren't my forte because
there's it's kind of a bit of a crap shoot.
But man, if you look at it back to how
we started this whole thing with CJ. Gardner Johnson to
have an interception, I mean that just feels like, what's

(01:28:44):
the bet, the bet you want to make? I'm pulling
the I'm pulling the number up right now. He's plus
five hundred DraftKings to have an interception. There's a lot
of Look, it's a great number, there's a lot of
it's actually the lowest number on the board in terms
of interceptions.

Speaker 1 (01:29:00):
But if that's the way you want to go with it,
I think that's something to look into.

Speaker 8 (01:29:07):
And if you really wanted to get crazy, there's actually
any time touchdown score.

Speaker 1 (01:29:12):
Market for defensive players, and he's plus five thousand.

Speaker 8 (01:29:14):
But again that kind of goes into be if you're
pick betting him to have a long shot MVP type game,
I think he's the guy. And heck if Mahomes has
had two multi interception games, right.

Speaker 1 (01:29:30):
CJ.

Speaker 8 (01:29:31):
Gardner Johnson's plus eight thousand have two interceptions in this game. Again,
we're talking about incredibly long shot odds here, but I
think if you're looking at a defensive player to bet,
Zach Bonn's tackles and assists is ten and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:29:44):
Can he get there?

Speaker 8 (01:29:45):
Absolutely, but it's such a big number. Arren Burks is
at eight and a half, Reblanket Ship at six and
a half. I think that where you corner the market
here is with Gardner Johnson and with the interceptions. I
think sack market is the only their market I would
I would trust for defensive player props, And in that regard,

(01:30:05):
it's kind of just like, well, all of them are
listed over zero point two and a half so you
just need a half sack for them to get in
on it. Josh, we looks enticing, Carloft, This looks enticing,
but that's an interest. Well, yeah, number, there's a few
enticing numbers there. But I think if you're gonna be

(01:30:26):
a defensive prop, I think it's c. J. Gardner Johnson.

Speaker 1 (01:30:30):
Tell you what, Zach Bahn.

Speaker 7 (01:30:32):
Zach Bonn's sack is just about plus five hundred on draftgangs.
Not not saying he's a you know, huge sack guy,
but he's he's he's been getting into the backfield. Granted
he doesn't have a sack at all in the playoffs,
but dude's been flying around the field. Man, he's been
flying around the field. He's he's he's going.

Speaker 1 (01:30:53):
He's going back to the stadium that that didn't give
him a chance.

Speaker 7 (01:30:57):
It's it's this this whole season, there is this, this
whole story to kind of rewrite his basically his entire career.
The guy that sort of left left New Orleans to
go up to Philly and is now a finalist for
Defensive Player of the Year and his back in his
home stadium for the Super Bowl. That's a that's a

(01:31:19):
spot I honestly, may look at there. I believe it's
plus four seventy five. That may be a little guy
for me.

Speaker 8 (01:31:25):
I also, I'm just going through the rest of the
props before we finish up here. I will actually take
the over on total field goal yards at one hundred
and fifteen and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:31:37):
The way I look at is this.

Speaker 7 (01:31:39):
It's hard to add up for me, but yeah, it's
a lot of maths.

Speaker 8 (01:31:44):
That's a whole lot of math. But the way I
look at is I think there's gonna be stops in
this game. I think the first half is going to
be incredibly nervy. And look, it's the Super Bowl that
there were very rare chances where we get a forty
to thirty seven game and it's in all time, right,
it's usually kind of just a steady metronome pace.

Speaker 3 (01:32:04):
And then other than the last time these two teams played,
but even then you.

Speaker 8 (01:32:09):
Didn't get to you know, yeah again, you didn't even
get into the forties and you had field goals. So
I think I think three we're gonna see field goals
in this game. I'd say probably two or three. I
know Jake Elliot's the big what if with the Eagles,
and I think that if you have no faith in him,
then you don't take any field goal.

Speaker 1 (01:32:26):
Props at all. It's real good in a dome. I'll
tell you that he's real good in a dome. But
but to get to one twenty, you need what I mean,
do quick amount of that.

Speaker 8 (01:32:34):
You need three forty yarders, three forty plus yarders or
two fifty yarders in a chip shot. I think we'll
see at least three or four field goal attemps in
this game. So that's a fun little one. I play
a handful of of props like that throughout the Super Bowl.
Not gonna touch the yard longest yard on that, and

(01:32:56):
I don't I'm not gonna lie. I don't really do
the novelty props much now like touchdown Jersey number does
nothing for me, absolutely not.

Speaker 1 (01:33:13):
But yeah, I think that's kind of the way I get.

Speaker 8 (01:33:15):
So I think that the base, if you're doing it
the same game parlay is the Kelsey receiving yards hurts
rushing yards.

Speaker 1 (01:33:21):
I think build off of that. And look, I will say,
don't go too crazy. It is a super Bowl, but.

Speaker 8 (01:33:27):
Look, it's very easy to kind of stray off the path,
like we kind of did with the Chiefs receivers like, oh,
this guy could do this, this guy could do that.
I genuinely think it's it's five pass catchers you have
to bet on in this game, Kelsey, Worthy, Brownsmith and Goddard.
Your your faith in rushing props comes down to if
Kansas City can have a consistent rushing attack. And I

(01:33:49):
think defensively there are some intriguing guys actually, like Justin
Reid over five and a half tackles and assists. Because
we're talking about an egos game script. But what I
would suggest for anything is whatever game script do you
think is going to happen, So either a heavy sake
one game, a heavy hurts passing game, a heavy Mahomes

(01:34:10):
through the air game, whatever it may be, then kind.

Speaker 1 (01:34:13):
Of base off your your props off of that.

Speaker 8 (01:34:14):
Don't go too crazy off the path because then you
can get in fifteen thousand different directions and it can
it can mess with your head.

Speaker 1 (01:34:22):
And look, it was gonna be one long shot, but
I'm full disclosure.

Speaker 8 (01:34:28):
I bet Odell Beckham to win MVP what three years
ago to four years ago now way tours ascl in
the second quarter, so've I've no longer for the personal perspective,
betting too many Super Bowl MVP long shots, although Guard
Johnson will get.

Speaker 7 (01:34:45):
Like I will say too, I did place one a
few days ago, and there there is a really, really,
really small chance that he wins. But I got Brandon
Graham at seven hundred and fifty to one and I
put Fied out. I have to win thirty seven dollars.
And listen, I'm gonna tell you right now, there is
I don't think there's a chance in anything that he

(01:35:06):
wins super Bowl MVP.

Speaker 1 (01:35:08):
But he might play. No, he might not even play.
You might get that money back again. That's why I
just put a coffee on it.

Speaker 7 (01:35:14):
But if if there is any chance for him to
rewrite the Tom Brady Stripsacked part two after he barely
made it back for the Super Bowl, and maybe he says, hey,
I I I'm done after this.

Speaker 1 (01:35:28):
I'll throw five bucks on it. I will throw the
retirement narrative with Kelsey too.

Speaker 6 (01:35:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:35:35):
I think if you believe in that and all, and
he hasn't won.

Speaker 8 (01:35:38):
MVP, and if he's vitals a success for the Chiefs
to hope he's not, let's hope that he doesn't win
MVP doesn't come anywhere close to it, but I think
that's also something you have to put into well. Thank
you everyone for tuning into our player prop preview here
on Fox Sports The Gambler for Luke Arcandy. I am
Joe Tansey. Best of luck on your bets and hopefully
not only will we come out with an Eagle Super

(01:35:59):
Bowl title, well come up with some winning bets slips
as well.

Speaker 1 (01:36:03):
After Sunday night, Best of luck and go Birds, spreads,
totals and all the prop that's in between. It's The
Gambler