August 15, 2025 • 21 mins
At a remote military base in Alaska, two of the world's most formidable figures sit across from each other in a moment pregnant with possibility. President Trump and President Putin's summit marks the first US-hosted presidential meeting with Russia since 1988, unfolding against the bloody backdrop of Ukraine's ongoing war.
Trump arrives projecting confidence, publicly estimating a 75% chance of success while warning of "severe consequences" should talks fail. His goal? To position himself as the ultimate diplomatic dealmaker, with plans for a follow-up meeting including Ukrainian President Zelensky if progress materializes. For Putin, under pressure from Western sanctions and slowing battlefield advances, the summit offers potential relief – though his territorial ambitions remain firm.
The summit's most controversial aspect is Ukraine's absence from the negotiating table. This raises profound ethical questions: can peace be brokered without the direct participation of the nation most affected? European leaders have rallied behind Zelensky, opposing any territorial concessions without Ukraine's consent. Meanwhile, Ukrainians themselves reveal a complex reality – 70% favor a negotiated peace, yet 76% reject giving up territory to Russia.
Beyond the diplomatic chess match, global economic consequences hang in the balance. As a major energy exporter, Russia's status significantly impacts world markets. A constructive deal could drop oil prices by $5 per barrel, while failed talks might push them above $80. Three scenarios now unfold: a partial ceasefire enabling further negotiations, a diplomatic stalemate producing rhetoric but little substance, or collapsed talks that escalate tensions worldwide.
As we witness this historic meeting, one question lingers: will Alaska serve as a bridge between war and peace, or merely a stage for political theater? Subscribe to our podcast for continuing coverage as this pivotal diplomatic moment unfolds.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It has been overtaken by violent gangs and
bloodthirsty criminals, rovingmobs of wild youth, drugged out,
maniacs and homeless people.
They love to spit in the faceof the police, as the police are
standing up there in uniform.
They're standing and they'rescreaming at them, an inch away
from their face, and then theystart spitting in their face and
(00:22):
I say you tell them, you spitand we hit.
And we're getting rid of theslums too.
We have slums here.
We're getting rid of them.
I know it's not politicallycorrect.
You'll say, oh, so terrible?
No, we're getting rid of theslums.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Let me be crystal clear Crime in DC is ending, and
ending today they will bestrong, they will be tough,
strong they will be tough andthey will stand with their law
enforcement partners.
This is nothing new for DOD.
In Los Angeles, we did the samething.
Speaker 4 (00:49):
I can't touch you if you're 14, 15, 16, 17 years old
and you have a gun.
They go to family court andthey get to do yoga and arts and
crafts.
Putin.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I'm going to Russia on Friday, but it's very complex
because you have lines that arevery uneven and there'll be
some swapping, there'll be somechanges in land, and the word
that they will use is you know,they make changes.
They've taken some very primeterritory, they've taken largely
ocean.
You know, in real estate wecall it oceanfront property.
(01:23):
That's always the most valuableproperty.
If you're on a lake, a river oran ocean, it's always the best
property.
Well, we're going to have ameeting with Vladimir Putin and
at the end of that meeting,probably in the first two
minutes, I'll know exactlywhether or not a deal can be
made.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
We know that Jeffrey Epstein had a lot of connections
with left-wing politicians andleft-wing billionaires, and now
President Trump has demandedfull transparency from this, and
yet somehow the Democrats areattacking him and not the Biden
administration, which didnothing for four years.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Give us some clarity on this meeting that is
reportedly happening or happenedlast night at the White House
about the Epstein files and howyou're communicating the Epstein
story.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
So I've seen so many different fake reports about
this, so let me set the recordstraight there was no meeting at
my house last night.
There just wasn't.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Was there a meeting at the White House?
Speaker 3 (02:10):
We did meet at the White House yesterday, but not
at the time that they said thatwe were going to meet and not
about the subject that they saidthat we were going to meet
about.
Speaker 5 (02:18):
Welcome to the Darrell McClain Show.
I'm your host, darrell McLean.
Independent media that won'treinforce tribalism.
We have one planet and nobodyis leaving, so let us reason
together.
We are gathered here today toparticipate in another episode.
(02:40):
We are getting older, as Ishould say.
I like to say that, almostcreeping up onto episode 500.
This is episode 470.
So almost there, and let's getinto it.
So we gather here in theCrossroads, a moment in history,
(03:03):
neither of triumph nor ofcertainty, but of tense
possibility.
Today, at a joint base calledM-Dorf Richardson in Anchorage,
alaska, two of the world's mostformidable figures, president
Donald Trump and PresidentVladimir Putin, will sit down
across a table for only thesecond time in this presidency
(03:24):
and the first time on US soil.
It is the first face to facemeeting in this term and it
unfolds and it's a long, darkshadow of a war raging in
Ukraine.
The world watches.
This isn't just another summit.
It's the first US hostededsitting president-to-president
(03:44):
meeting with Russia since 1988.
Alaska is more than a backdrop.
It's a symbol, because it wasonce Russian territory, now
American, a place wheregeography and history meet.
Far from the battlegroundstearing Europe apart, at the
heart of this summit looms thebloody conflict that has
consumed Ukraine since 2022.
(04:06):
The toll human lives, ruinedcities, shattered futures.
Europe's stability hangs in thebalance.
The entire international orderteeters on the choices made in
these next few hours.
President Trump arrives buoyedby optimism and strategy.
Publicly, he has spoken of avery severe consequences should
(04:28):
the talks fail.
Yet he estimates failure aprobability of just 25 percent
in one telling and as high as 75percent success in another,
calling Moscow's willingness tostrike a deal of sign of his
diplomatic leverage.
Of sign of his diplomaticleverage.
The president is eager toposition himself as a broker of
(04:49):
peace, an image he hopes willresonate as the political
triumph at home.
He has floated the idea of afollow-up trilateral meeting
involving Ukrainian PresidentVladimir Zelensky, contingent on
the progress that is made inAlaska.
At the same time, presidentPutin walks into this meeting
with his own narrative a leaderunder pressure both militarily
and economically, with Westernsanctions biting and a
(05:12):
battlefield advance is slowing.
There is incentive to seek areprieve, but he remains firm in
his goals, particularly overterritories like Donbass or
perhaps broader land concessions, which Ukraine and its allies
view as unacceptable.
The Kremlin's circumspectionwill define whether Russia uses
the summit to deflateinternational pressure or to buy
(05:34):
time for continued aggressionunder softly shifting diplomatic
optics.
Ukraine is not physically at thetable.
Zelensky has been excluded, andmany say rightly so.
His absence is a symbol of thevery problem many fear
negotiating a country's fatebehind its back.
Europe, alarmed, has convenedemergency meetings to reaffirm
(05:58):
that no peace deal should allowterritory concessions of Ukraine
, especially without Ukrainepresent.
This summit, critics argue,risks legitimizing aggression.
Inside Anchorage, publicsentiment is equally charged.
Ukrainian-americans communityholds rallies and prayer
services calling both leaders tochoose peace and question
optics of this interaction.
(06:20):
Beyond Ukraine, globalconsequences ripple outward,
even when the oil markets, oreven to the oil markets, as
Russia is a major energyexporter.
A construction deal or any formof sanctions relief could flood
global markets and depressprices by up to $5 a barrel, buy
(06:47):
up to five dollars a barrel.
Conversely, failure or furthertightening of sanctions might
push oil above 80 dollars fromthe current levels near to 67.
This isn't just aboutdiplomatic symbolism.
Market economies and strategicalignments are all tuned in.
So, um, let's imagine there arethree core outcomes unfolding
from these 24 hours in Alaska.
Either we're going to have one,a partial ceasefire or
(07:12):
de-escalation is agreed upon.
Green lights for Zelensky tojoin.
Follow up summit sanctions beginto ease Oil prices dip, the
narrative becomes cautiousoptimism, with Trump as a
peacemaker and Putin saving faceTwo.
It could be no deal but neitheroutright failure, some rhetoric
but no hard commitments.
Trump's headlines with progressmade, why Putin uses time to
(07:35):
regroup, ukraine remainssidelines, markets stagnate and
uncertainty breeds.
And, of course, talks collapse.
Trump's threatened strongersanctions, europe edges closer
to additional measure.
Putin doubles down on militarygains, oil prices spike and the
contours of a new Cold Waremerge solidified.
Solidified and emboldened.
(07:58):
In moments like this, it's easyto see grand narratives or grand
illusions.
Are we witnessing the dawn of adurable diplomatic breakthrough
or a mirage of a temporary thawand a frozen conflict designed
to pull the strings of globalattention?
The ethical questions cut deep.
Can peace be negotiated withoutUkraine in the room or is
diplomacy being wielded toreward aggression and undercut
(08:21):
sovereignty?
As a citizen, a witness to thisunfolding drama, I feel hopeful
, yet cautious.
Hopeful that the talks, even inpreliminary, open channels of
de-escalation.
Cautious that this moment couldbe a spectacle with little
substance for those bearing thecost, and by that I mean the
people that are in Ukraine.
(08:43):
So today we stand at theprecipice, with President Trump
and President Putin meeting inAlaskan snow.
Each hand extended could signalpeace or portend further
fissures in the globalconscience, and lives hang in
the balance.
The world holds its breath asthe camera turns on to leaders
(09:03):
to speak.
May humanity, not just power,dominate their deliberations,
and may Alaska, for once, standas a bridge, not a fault line,
between war and peace.
Speaker 6 (09:15):
President Trump hosts his Russian counterpart in
Alaska today.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
They have president and he's not going to mess
around with them.
Speaker 7 (09:21):
But can Trump convince Vladimir Putin to end
the war in Ukraine fairly?
Speaker 6 (09:23):
I'm Michelle Martin, that's A Martinez, and this is
Up First from NPR News.
Putin was once an internationalpariah because of Russia's war
in Ukraine, but now he's beinghosted at a high-stakes peace
summit on US soil.
How much of an opportunity fordiplomatic and economic
cooperation with the US does thesummit provide and Russia?
Speaker 7 (09:40):
has pushed back against including Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky inpeace talks until Moscow and
Washington first clinch a deal.
What concessions might Ukrainebe forced to make?
Stay with us.
We've got all the news you needto start your day.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
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Speaker 1 (11:05):
President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin
meet today in Anchorage, alaska, for a high stakes summit aimed
at ending Russia's war withUkraine At least, that's Trump's
stated goal and if it's a badmeeting, it'll end very quickly,
and if it's a good meeting,we're going to end up getting
peace in the pretty near future.
Speaker 6 (11:19):
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was
not invited.
That meeting, Trump says, couldcome next.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
All I want to do is set the table for the next
meeting, which should happenshortly.
I'd like to see it happen veryquickly, very shortly after this
meeting.
Speaker 7 (11:30):
NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith
is in Anchorage Tam.
What's expected for this bigsummit?
Speaker 4 (11:36):
This will all take place at Joint Base
Elmendorf-Richardson on theoutskirts of Anchorage.
The meeting is set to start at11 am, local time out.
Here that's 3 pm on the EastCoast.
Trump and Putin will first meetone on one, with just the two
leaders and their translators.
Trump has said he will befeeling out Putin and whether
he's serious about ending thewar, after numerous phone calls
over the past six months thatreally haven't moved the needle.
(11:56):
Next they'll be joined by theiradvisors for a working lunch,
and yesterday the White Housesaid that Trump and Putin will
hold a joint press conference.
Speaker 7 (12:03):
Really Okay.
So I remember their last jointpress conference.
That was what in Helsinki,finland 2018, I believe right.
I remember it was widely viewedas a bit of an embarrassment
for you at the time.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Yeah, that summit took place as a special counsel
was investigating Russianmeddling in the 2016
presidential election.
That investigation is somethingthat Trump is still raging
about.
He calls it the Russia Russia,Russia hoax.
So, during that joint pressconference, Putin denied any
election interference and Trumpappeared to take Putin's side
over that of the US intelligencecommunity.
Trump faced incredible backlashat home, among Republicans and
(12:35):
Democrats alike, and eventuallywalked back some of what he said
.
But now, seven years later,Trump says that summit was a
success and he is positioninghimself as uniquely able to
handle Putin.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
If I weren't president.
In my opinion, he would muchrather take over all of Ukraine,
but I am president and he's notgoing to mess around with me In
2018, when Trump met with Putin.
Speaker 4 (12:56):
The domestic political stakes for Trump were
quite high, but Trump wasfocused on terrorism and nuclear
nonproliferation.
Looking back, those were muchsimpler times.
Now Putin is four years intothe latest chapter of this war
and is testing US and Europeanresolve.
Speaker 7 (13:10):
Oh, for those simpler times, tam, all right.
So what does success look likefrom this meeting today?
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Trump has been all over the map in terms of his
expectations for the meeting.
He's talked about the need todivvy up territory.
That's something that Ukraine'spresident has opposed.
Trump hasn't really beenprecise in what he wants to see
today.
Thank you, and a reminder thathe has allowed the sale of
(13:46):
powerful weapon systems to NATOto help Ukraine and has
threatened to punish countrieslike India for buying Russian
oil.
Now this meeting leaves an openquestion of what comes next as
Russia makes gains on thebattlefield.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
That's NPR's Tamara Keith in Anchorage.
Tamara, thanks, you're welcome.
And now we have a look at howtalks are being perceived in
Moscow and from Kiev.
Ukrainians are concerned thatnot being included in the summit
will force the country to makeconcessions.
Speaker 6 (14:09):
And although Russian President Vladimir Putin was
once an international pariahbecause of the war, the Kremlin
is portraying the summit as anopportunity for economic
cooperation with the US.
Speaker 7 (14:17):
We'll be talking to our reporters who are covering
this event, starting withCharles Maines, who joins us now
on the line from Moscow.
Charles, all right, what's thelatest from Russia?
Speaker 9 (14:24):
Yeah, good morning.
You know Vladimir Putin is onhis way to Alaska.
He's currently out in Russia'sFar East, in Magadan.
The Kremlin says he'll visit amemorial in Fairbanks that pays
tribute to US Soviet cooperationduring World War II.
Before the summit no doubttapping into symbolism from the
past and time is something topay attention to.
Today, Due to a quirk of theinternational dateline, in other
words to time zones, it'salready Friday evening in
(14:44):
Russia's Far East, but whenPutin leaves Russia and heads
across the Bering Strait andinto the US.
Speaker 7 (14:53):
it will be Friday morning in Alaska.
So a bit of time travel, a nicetrick if you can pull it off,
yes, it does.
Now let's turn to the summititself.
What do we know about VladimirPutin's approach to the talks?
Speaker 9 (14:56):
Well, you know, keep in mind that just a week ago
Putin faced this Trump ultimatumto stop the war by, and he had
this message for Trump as well.
So here Putin says he'sgrateful to Trump and his
(15:18):
administration for theirenergetic and sincere efforts in
the conflict in Ukraine, and hesuggested that the Alaska talks
might also focus on strategicsecurity, in other words nuclear
arms control.
And what should we make of that?
Well, you know, progress onarms control is a good thing,
particularly given the loomingend of the New START treaty.
This is the last major armscontrol deal between the US and
Russia, which expires in early2026.
But this gesture it came afterTrump resurfaced economic
(15:41):
threats on Russia if this Alaskasummit doesn't make progress on
Ukraine.
So it seems to be Russiatempting Trump with agreements
beyond the Ukraine issue.
A nuclear deal would seem toappeal to Trump's desire to be
seen as a global peacemaker andfor Russia, you know, it
certainly gives the Alaskasummit a Cold War tableau.
The superpower is back at thenegotiating table for nuclear
issues Again, Putin travelingback in time.
(16:03):
Now.
Are there any other areas wherewe might see deals getting made
?
Well, the Kremlin aide, YuriShchukhov, says this huge
untapped potential of US-Russianeconomic cooperation is also on
the docket.
So Russia clearly appealing tothe businessmen and Trump.
Russian officials havesuggested that might include
mineral deals, in particular,joint investments in the Arctic.
We'll have to see, but you know, it would make sense to have
some agreed upon deliverables,you know, given the more
unpredictable nature of theUkraine issue.
Speaker 7 (16:22):
So, speaking of Ukraine, let's go back to
Ukraine for a second.
Speaker 9 (16:33):
Any reason to think progress can be made.
Well, no one thinks this warwill end tomorrow.
That said, moscow may not wantTrump to leave entirely impended
from Anchorage.
One area where we may see somedealmaking is a partial
ceasefire on air attacks.
This would allow Trump tolegitimately say look, this
saves lives from Russian bombswhich it would, but it would
also neutralize a key aspect ofUkraine's ability to punch back,
namely with drones that canattack deep inside Russia, which
, again, they did this morning.
Speaker 7 (16:46):
All right, that's NPR's Charles Mains in Moscow.
Thank you very much, charles.
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Let's get the view from Ukraine.
Now We'll go to Greg Myrie forthis.
He's in the capital of Kiev.
Greg, good morning.
Speaker 10 (16:54):
Hi Michelle.
Speaker 6 (16:55):
So you've been talking to Ukrainians about the
summit.
What are they telling you?
Speaker 10 (16:58):
Well, you can really boil it down to two basic
responses.
Response number one is thatnothing substantive will come
out of this summit.
They Putin is still fullycommitted to the war and won't
agree to a real ceasefire, letalone an end to the conflict, so
they expect the fighting tocontinue.
Ukrainians who think this wayinclude Olena Humeynuk.
She's 46 and works inconstruction.
I spoke with her in centralKyiv.
So she's saying that she thinksit's another waste of time that
(17:24):
will produce no results.
And then she goes on to say shethinks negotiations are
possible, but they have toinclude Ukraine.
And I'll just add, michelle,russia fired nearly 100 drones
at Ukraine overnight.
Six civilians were killed, morethan a dozen injured, according
to Ukrainian officials.
Ok, so a lot of people.
Speaker 6 (17:38):
you spoke with.
Don't think this will goanywhere.
What else are you hearing?
Speaker 10 (17:42):
Well, there are some Ukrainians who fear that Putin
and Trump might reach some sortof arrangement and then Ukraine
will face pressure to accept it.
Even though Ukraine isn'tpresent at the talks, ukrainians
don't know exactly what thatmight be.
This summit has been cobbledtogether very quickly.
The leaders aren't working offa clear and specific agenda.
Trump says he just wants tohear Putin out and then decide
what to do next.
So the concern is Putin willmake some very limited proposal,
(18:04):
a partial temporary ceasefire.
Our colleague Charles Mainesjust described one possibility
that might sound like a nicegesture but wouldn't address the
core issues that could end thewar.
Speaker 6 (18:13):
Have Ukrainians been able to do anything to prepare
for this kind of outcome?
Speaker 10 (18:17):
So President Volodymyr Zelensky has been in
Europe rallying support forUkraine.
European leaders are staunchlybacking Zelensky, saying no
deals can be reached withoutUkraine's full participation.
Zelensky and the Europeans havebeen talking to Trump by phone
in the past week or so, sothey've been able to make their
case and they've tried to warnhim against what Putin might try
to do.
Also, trump says he would liketo see a follow-up meeting that
(18:39):
would include Zelensky.
So whatever comes out of Alaska, ukraine hopes it will have a
chance to lobby afterwards,before any decisions might get
made.
Speaker 6 (18:45):
Greg, before we let you go, Russia launched its
full-scale invasion three and ahalf years ago.
Are you seeing any change inopinion in Ukraine as this war
drags on?
Speaker 10 (18:54):
Yeah, michelle.
We've seen two interestingpolls this month.
A Gallup poll asked Ukrainiansif they now favored and
negotiated into the war.
Right around 70% said yes theywould.
But a poll by the KievInternational Institute of
Sociology asked Ukrainians ifthey would accept giving up
territory that Russia now holds.
Seventy-six percent said no.
This is not acceptable and,michelle, this may sound
contradictory, but it does makesense.
(19:16):
When you speak to Ukrainians,they tell you they are exhausted
by the war and the longer itgoes on, the more willing they
are to negotiate and perhapsmake concessions.
But most have not reached thepoint where they're ready to
give up the roughly 20 percentof their territory that Russia
controls.
That is.
Speaker 6 (19:30):
NPR's Greg Myrie in Kiev, ukraine's capital.
Greg, thank you, sure thing,michelle.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
And that's a first for Friday August 15th.
I'm Ian Martinez.
Speaker 10 (19:40):
And I'm Michelle Martin.
It has been overtaken by violent gangs and
bloodthirsty criminals, rovingmobs of wild youth, drugged out,
maniacs and homeless people.
They love to spit in the faceof the police, as the police are
standing up there in uniform.
They're standing and they'rescreaming at them, an inch away
from their face, and then theystart spitting in their face and
(00:22):
I say you tell them, you spitand we hit.
And we're getting rid of theslums too.
We have slums here.
We're getting rid of them.
I know it's not politicallycorrect.
You'll say, oh, so terrible?
No, we're getting rid of theslums.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Let me be crystal clear Crime in DC is ending, and
ending today they will bestrong, they will be tough,
strong they will be tough andthey will stand with their law
enforcement partners.
This is nothing new for DOD.
In Los Angeles, we did the samething.
Speaker 4 (00:49):
I can't touch you if you're 14, 15, 16, 17 years old
and you have a gun.
They go to family court andthey get to do yoga and arts and
crafts.
Putin.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
I'm going to Russia on Friday, but it's very complex
because you have lines that arevery uneven and there'll be
some swapping, there'll be somechanges in land, and the word
that they will use is you know,they make changes.
They've taken some very primeterritory, they've taken largely
ocean.
You know, in real estate wecall it oceanfront property.
(01:23):
That's always the most valuableproperty.
If you're on a lake, a river oran ocean, it's always the best
property.
Well, we're going to have ameeting with Vladimir Putin and
at the end of that meeting,probably in the first two
minutes, I'll know exactlywhether or not a deal can be
made.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
We know that Jeffrey Epstein had a lot of connections
with left-wing politicians andleft-wing billionaires, and now
President Trump has demandedfull transparency from this, and
yet somehow the Democrats areattacking him and not the Biden
administration, which didnothing for four years.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Give us some clarity on this meeting that is
reportedly happening or happenedlast night at the White House
about the Epstein files and howyou're communicating the Epstein
story.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
So I've seen so many different fake reports about
this, so let me set the recordstraight there was no meeting at
my house last night.
There just wasn't.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Was there a meeting at the White House?
Speaker 3 (02:10):
We did meet at the White House yesterday, but not
at the time that they said thatwe were going to meet and not
about the subject that they saidthat we were going to meet
about.
Speaker 5 (02:18):
Welcome to the Darrell McClain Show.
I'm your host, darrell McLean.
Independent media that won'treinforce tribalism.
We have one planet and nobodyis leaving, so let us reason
together.
We are gathered here today toparticipate in another episode.
(02:40):
We are getting older, as Ishould say.
I like to say that, almostcreeping up onto episode 500.
This is episode 470.
So almost there, and let's getinto it.
So we gather here in theCrossroads, a moment in history,
(03:03):
neither of triumph nor ofcertainty, but of tense
possibility.
Today, at a joint base calledM-Dorf Richardson in Anchorage,
alaska, two of the world's mostformidable figures, president
Donald Trump and PresidentVladimir Putin, will sit down
across a table for only thesecond time in this presidency
(03:24):
and the first time on US soil.
It is the first face to facemeeting in this term and it
unfolds and it's a long, darkshadow of a war raging in
Ukraine.
The world watches.
This isn't just another summit.
It's the first US hostededsitting president-to-president
(03:44):
meeting with Russia since 1988.
Alaska is more than a backdrop.
It's a symbol, because it wasonce Russian territory, now
American, a place wheregeography and history meet.
Far from the battlegroundstearing Europe apart, at the
heart of this summit looms thebloody conflict that has
consumed Ukraine since 2022.
(04:06):
The toll human lives, ruinedcities, shattered futures.
Europe's stability hangs in thebalance.
The entire international orderteeters on the choices made in
these next few hours.
President Trump arrives buoyedby optimism and strategy.
Publicly, he has spoken of avery severe consequences should
(04:28):
the talks fail.
Yet he estimates failure aprobability of just 25 percent
in one telling and as high as 75percent success in another,
calling Moscow's willingness tostrike a deal of sign of his
diplomatic leverage.
Of sign of his diplomaticleverage.
The president is eager toposition himself as a broker of
(04:49):
peace, an image he hopes willresonate as the political
triumph at home.
He has floated the idea of afollow-up trilateral meeting
involving Ukrainian PresidentVladimir Zelensky, contingent on
the progress that is made inAlaska.
At the same time, presidentPutin walks into this meeting
with his own narrative a leaderunder pressure both militarily
and economically, with Westernsanctions biting and a
(05:12):
battlefield advance is slowing.
There is incentive to seek areprieve, but he remains firm in
his goals, particularly overterritories like Donbass or
perhaps broader land concessions, which Ukraine and its allies
view as unacceptable.
The Kremlin's circumspectionwill define whether Russia uses
the summit to deflateinternational pressure or to buy
(05:34):
time for continued aggressionunder softly shifting diplomatic
optics.
Ukraine is not physically at thetable.
Zelensky has been excluded, andmany say rightly so.
His absence is a symbol of thevery problem many fear
negotiating a country's fatebehind its back.
Europe, alarmed, has convenedemergency meetings to reaffirm
(05:58):
that no peace deal should allowterritory concessions of Ukraine
, especially without Ukrainepresent.
This summit, critics argue,risks legitimizing aggression.
Inside Anchorage, publicsentiment is equally charged.
Ukrainian-americans communityholds rallies and prayer
services calling both leaders tochoose peace and question
optics of this interaction.
(06:20):
Beyond Ukraine, globalconsequences ripple outward,
even when the oil markets, oreven to the oil markets, as
Russia is a major energyexporter.
A construction deal or any formof sanctions relief could flood
global markets and depressprices by up to $5 a barrel, buy
(06:47):
up to five dollars a barrel.
Conversely, failure or furthertightening of sanctions might
push oil above 80 dollars fromthe current levels near to 67.
This isn't just aboutdiplomatic symbolism.
Market economies and strategicalignments are all tuned in.
So, um, let's imagine there arethree core outcomes unfolding
from these 24 hours in Alaska.
Either we're going to have one,a partial ceasefire or
(07:12):
de-escalation is agreed upon.
Green lights for Zelensky tojoin.
Follow up summit sanctions beginto ease Oil prices dip, the
narrative becomes cautiousoptimism, with Trump as a
peacemaker and Putin saving faceTwo.
It could be no deal but neitheroutright failure, some rhetoric
but no hard commitments.
Trump's headlines with progressmade, why Putin uses time to
(07:35):
regroup, ukraine remainssidelines, markets stagnate and
uncertainty breeds.
And, of course, talks collapse.
Trump's threatened strongersanctions, europe edges closer
to additional measure.
Putin doubles down on militarygains, oil prices spike and the
contours of a new Cold Waremerge solidified.
Solidified and emboldened.
(07:58):
In moments like this, it's easyto see grand narratives or grand
illusions.
Are we witnessing the dawn of adurable diplomatic breakthrough
or a mirage of a temporary thawand a frozen conflict designed
to pull the strings of globalattention?
The ethical questions cut deep.
Can peace be negotiated withoutUkraine in the room or is
diplomacy being wielded toreward aggression and undercut
(08:21):
sovereignty?
As a citizen, a witness to thisunfolding drama, I feel hopeful
, yet cautious.
Hopeful that the talks, even inpreliminary, open channels of
de-escalation.
Cautious that this moment couldbe a spectacle with little
substance for those bearing thecost, and by that I mean the
people that are in Ukraine.
(08:43):
So today we stand at theprecipice, with President Trump
and President Putin meeting inAlaskan snow.
Each hand extended could signalpeace or portend further
fissures in the globalconscience, and lives hang in
the balance.
The world holds its breath asthe camera turns on to leaders
(09:03):
to speak.
May humanity, not just power,dominate their deliberations,
and may Alaska, for once, standas a bridge, not a fault line,
between war and peace.
Speaker 6 (09:15):
President Trump hosts his Russian counterpart in
Alaska today.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
They have president and he's not going to mess
around with them.
Speaker 7 (09:21):
But can Trump convince Vladimir Putin to end
the war in Ukraine fairly?
Speaker 6 (09:23):
I'm Michelle Martin, that's A Martinez, and this is
Up First from NPR News.
Putin was once an internationalpariah because of Russia's war
in Ukraine, but now he's beinghosted at a high-stakes peace
summit on US soil.
How much of an opportunity fordiplomatic and economic
cooperation with the US does thesummit provide and Russia?
Speaker 7 (09:40):
has pushed back against including Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky inpeace talks until Moscow and
Washington first clinch a deal.
What concessions might Ukrainebe forced to make?
Stay with us.
We've got all the news you needto start your day.
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Speaker 1 (11:05):
President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin
meet today in Anchorage, alaska, for a high stakes summit aimed
at ending Russia's war withUkraine At least, that's Trump's
stated goal and if it's a badmeeting, it'll end very quickly,
and if it's a good meeting,we're going to end up getting
peace in the pretty near future.
Speaker 6 (11:19):
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was
not invited.
That meeting, Trump says, couldcome next.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
All I want to do is set the table for the next
meeting, which should happenshortly.
I'd like to see it happen veryquickly, very shortly after this
meeting.
Speaker 7 (11:30):
NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith
is in Anchorage Tam.
What's expected for this bigsummit?
Speaker 4 (11:36):
This will all take place at Joint Base
Elmendorf-Richardson on theoutskirts of Anchorage.
The meeting is set to start at11 am, local time out.
Here that's 3 pm on the EastCoast.
Trump and Putin will first meetone on one, with just the two
leaders and their translators.
Trump has said he will befeeling out Putin and whether
he's serious about ending thewar, after numerous phone calls
over the past six months thatreally haven't moved the needle.
(11:56):
Next they'll be joined by theiradvisors for a working lunch,
and yesterday the White Housesaid that Trump and Putin will
hold a joint press conference.
Speaker 7 (12:03):
Really Okay.
So I remember their last jointpress conference.
That was what in Helsinki,finland 2018, I believe right.
I remember it was widely viewedas a bit of an embarrassment
for you at the time.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Yeah, that summit took place as a special counsel
was investigating Russianmeddling in the 2016
presidential election.
That investigation is somethingthat Trump is still raging
about.
He calls it the Russia Russia,Russia hoax.
So, during that joint pressconference, Putin denied any
election interference and Trumpappeared to take Putin's side
over that of the US intelligencecommunity.
Trump faced incredible backlashat home, among Republicans and
(12:35):
Democrats alike, and eventuallywalked back some of what he said
.
But now, seven years later,Trump says that summit was a
success and he is positioninghimself as uniquely able to
handle Putin.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
If I weren't president.
In my opinion, he would muchrather take over all of Ukraine,
but I am president and he's notgoing to mess around with me In
2018, when Trump met with Putin.
Speaker 4 (12:56):
The domestic political stakes for Trump were
quite high, but Trump wasfocused on terrorism and nuclear
nonproliferation.
Looking back, those were muchsimpler times.
Now Putin is four years intothe latest chapter of this war
and is testing US and Europeanresolve.
Speaker 7 (13:10):
Oh, for those simpler times, tam, all right.
So what does success look likefrom this meeting today?
Speaker 4 (13:15):
Trump has been all over the map in terms of his
expectations for the meeting.
He's talked about the need todivvy up territory.
That's something that Ukraine'spresident has opposed.
Trump hasn't really beenprecise in what he wants to see
today.
Thank you, and a reminder thathe has allowed the sale of
(13:46):
powerful weapon systems to NATOto help Ukraine and has
threatened to punish countrieslike India for buying Russian
oil.
Now this meeting leaves an openquestion of what comes next as
Russia makes gains on thebattlefield.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
That's NPR's Tamara Keith in Anchorage.
Tamara, thanks, you're welcome.
And now we have a look at howtalks are being perceived in
Moscow and from Kiev.
Ukrainians are concerned thatnot being included in the summit
will force the country to makeconcessions.
Speaker 6 (14:09):
And although Russian President Vladimir Putin was
once an international pariahbecause of the war, the Kremlin
is portraying the summit as anopportunity for economic
cooperation with the US.
Speaker 7 (14:17):
We'll be talking to our reporters who are covering
this event, starting withCharles Maines, who joins us now
on the line from Moscow.
Charles, all right, what's thelatest from Russia?
Speaker 9 (14:24):
Yeah, good morning.
You know Vladimir Putin is onhis way to Alaska.
He's currently out in Russia'sFar East, in Magadan.
The Kremlin says he'll visit amemorial in Fairbanks that pays
tribute to US Soviet cooperationduring World War II.
Before the summit no doubttapping into symbolism from the
past and time is something topay attention to.
Today, Due to a quirk of theinternational dateline, in other
words to time zones, it'salready Friday evening in
(14:44):
Russia's Far East, but whenPutin leaves Russia and heads
across the Bering Strait andinto the US.
Speaker 7 (14:53):
it will be Friday morning in Alaska.
So a bit of time travel, a nicetrick if you can pull it off,
yes, it does.
Now let's turn to the summititself.
What do we know about VladimirPutin's approach to the talks?
Speaker 9 (14:56):
Well, you know, keep in mind that just a week ago
Putin faced this Trump ultimatumto stop the war by, and he had
this message for Trump as well.
So here Putin says he'sgrateful to Trump and his
(15:18):
administration for theirenergetic and sincere efforts in
the conflict in Ukraine, and hesuggested that the Alaska talks
might also focus on strategicsecurity, in other words nuclear
arms control.
And what should we make of that?
Well, you know, progress onarms control is a good thing,
particularly given the loomingend of the New START treaty.
This is the last major armscontrol deal between the US and
Russia, which expires in early2026.
But this gesture it came afterTrump resurfaced economic
(15:41):
threats on Russia if this Alaskasummit doesn't make progress on
Ukraine.
So it seems to be Russiatempting Trump with agreements
beyond the Ukraine issue.
A nuclear deal would seem toappeal to Trump's desire to be
seen as a global peacemaker andfor Russia, you know, it
certainly gives the Alaskasummit a Cold War tableau.
The superpower is back at thenegotiating table for nuclear
issues Again, Putin travelingback in time.
(16:03):
Now.
Are there any other areas wherewe might see deals getting made
?
Well, the Kremlin aide, YuriShchukhov, says this huge
untapped potential of US-Russianeconomic cooperation is also on
the docket.
So Russia clearly appealing tothe businessmen and Trump.
Russian officials havesuggested that might include
mineral deals, in particular,joint investments in the Arctic.
We'll have to see, but you know, it would make sense to have
some agreed upon deliverables,you know, given the more
unpredictable nature of theUkraine issue.
Speaker 7 (16:22):
So, speaking of Ukraine, let's go back to
Ukraine for a second.
Speaker 9 (16:33):
Any reason to think progress can be made.
Well, no one thinks this warwill end tomorrow.
That said, moscow may not wantTrump to leave entirely impended
from Anchorage.
One area where we may see somedealmaking is a partial
ceasefire on air attacks.
This would allow Trump tolegitimately say look, this
saves lives from Russian bombswhich it would, but it would
also neutralize a key aspect ofUkraine's ability to punch back,
namely with drones that canattack deep inside Russia, which
, again, they did this morning.
Speaker 7 (16:46):
All right, that's NPR's Charles Mains in Moscow.
Thank you very much, charles.
Thank you.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Let's get the view from Ukraine.
Now We'll go to Greg Myrie forthis.
He's in the capital of Kiev.
Greg, good morning.
Speaker 10 (16:54):
Hi Michelle.
Speaker 6 (16:55):
So you've been talking to Ukrainians about the
summit.
What are they telling you?
Speaker 10 (16:58):
Well, you can really boil it down to two basic
responses.
Response number one is thatnothing substantive will come
out of this summit.
They Putin is still fullycommitted to the war and won't
agree to a real ceasefire, letalone an end to the conflict, so
they expect the fighting tocontinue.
Ukrainians who think this wayinclude Olena Humeynuk.
She's 46 and works inconstruction.
I spoke with her in centralKyiv.
So she's saying that she thinksit's another waste of time that
(17:24):
will produce no results.
And then she goes on to say shethinks negotiations are
possible, but they have toinclude Ukraine.
And I'll just add, michelle,russia fired nearly 100 drones
at Ukraine overnight.
Six civilians were killed, morethan a dozen injured, according
to Ukrainian officials.
Ok, so a lot of people.
Speaker 6 (17:38):
you spoke with.
Don't think this will goanywhere.
What else are you hearing?
Speaker 10 (17:42):
Well, there are some Ukrainians who fear that Putin
and Trump might reach some sortof arrangement and then Ukraine
will face pressure to accept it.
Even though Ukraine isn'tpresent at the talks, ukrainians
don't know exactly what thatmight be.
This summit has been cobbledtogether very quickly.
The leaders aren't working offa clear and specific agenda.
Trump says he just wants tohear Putin out and then decide
what to do next.
So the concern is Putin willmake some very limited proposal,
(18:04):
a partial temporary ceasefire.
Our colleague Charles Mainesjust described one possibility
that might sound like a nicegesture but wouldn't address the
core issues that could end thewar.
Speaker 6 (18:13):
Have Ukrainians been able to do anything to prepare
for this kind of outcome?
Speaker 10 (18:17):
So President Volodymyr Zelensky has been in
Europe rallying support forUkraine.
European leaders are staunchlybacking Zelensky, saying no
deals can be reached withoutUkraine's full participation.
Zelensky and the Europeans havebeen talking to Trump by phone
in the past week or so, sothey've been able to make their
case and they've tried to warnhim against what Putin might try
to do.
Also, trump says he would liketo see a follow-up meeting that
(18:39):
would include Zelensky.
So whatever comes out of Alaska, ukraine hopes it will have a
chance to lobby afterwards,before any decisions might get
made.
Speaker 6 (18:45):
Greg, before we let you go, Russia launched its
full-scale invasion three and ahalf years ago.
Are you seeing any change inopinion in Ukraine as this war
drags on?
Speaker 10 (18:54):
Yeah, michelle.
We've seen two interestingpolls this month.
A Gallup poll asked Ukrainiansif they now favored and
negotiated into the war.
Right around 70% said yes theywould.
But a poll by the KievInternational Institute of
Sociology asked Ukrainians ifthey would accept giving up
territory that Russia now holds.
Seventy-six percent said no.
This is not acceptable and,michelle, this may sound
contradictory, but it does makesense.
(19:16):
When you speak to Ukrainians,they tell you they are exhausted
by the war and the longer itgoes on, the more willing they
are to negotiate and perhapsmake concessions.
But most have not reached thepoint where they're ready to
give up the roughly 20 percentof their territory that Russia
controls.
That is.
Speaker 6 (19:30):
NPR's Greg Myrie in Kiev, ukraine's capital.
Greg, thank you, sure thing,michelle.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
And that's a first for Friday August 15th.
I'm Ian Martinez.
Speaker 10 (19:40):
And I'm Michelle Martin.
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