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The corporate life cycle is an important yet often overlooked factor in investing. Like all things, companies age over time, with each phase having its own pros and cons.
In this episode, Greg explores the corporate life cycle's impact on dividend growth investing. Using research from Morgan Stanley and Aswath Damodaran, he covers various stages of a company's life, including startup, young growth, high growth, mature growth, mature stable, and decline— with examples from companies like Rivian, Nvidia, Microsoft, PepsiCo, GE, IBM, Intel, AT&T, and Tesla. Highlights include the prolonged profitability in maturity phases, industry-specific aging rates, and risks associated with corporate debt and large acquisitions. Greg emphasizes understanding a company's phase for strategic investment decisions and the critical role of suitable CEOs.
00:00 Introduction
01:12 The Importance of Understanding the Corporate Life Cycle
02:10 Morgan Stanley's Five Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle
02:58 Key Metrics in the Corporate Life Cycle
05:39 Profitability and Debt in Different Stages
08:37 Cost of Equity and Capital in Mature Companies
11:10 Aswath Damodaran's Six Stages of the Corporate Life Cycle
14:08 Examples of Companies in Different Life Cycle Stages
20:15 Dividend Investing: High Growth to Mature Growth
21:48 Mature Stable Phase: Dividend Income and Growth
22:56 Challenges in Mature Stable Phase
24:24 Decline Phase: Managing Declining Cashflow
25:44 Narrative vs. Numbers in Company Growth
29:08 Pricing and Valuation Across Growth Phases
31:59 CEO Roles in Different Growth Phases
35:59 Conclusion: Investing Across Lifecycle Stages
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