Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Trump is back and the
global economy is shifting fast
.
He's ramping up USmanufacturing, china's
scrambling to repair trade tiesand Australia's caught in the
middle.
Today, oscar and I are breakingit all down why Trump blocked
Mexico's biggest auto plant of$1.6 billion and how that's
going to impact Australia, whyChina just lifted tariffs, and
(00:23):
how government efficiencyprograms like Doge are saving
taxpayers billions.
Let's get into it.
Welcome back to another episodeof the Finance Bible Podcast.
You're joined with myself, zekeand your co-host, oscar.
But before we get into it,please note that nothing in this
(00:46):
podcast should ever beconsidered as personal financial
advice.
But if that is what you areseeking, get in touch, let us
know and we will hook you upwith the correct professionals.
Sit back, relax and enjoy theshow.
Let's get into it, jumpingstraight into it.
Oscar welcome, yeah, I wasgoing to say first before we get
into it.
Oscar, well, welcome, yeah, Iwas gonna say first before we
(01:07):
get into it.
We're back in person.
We are, if you've beenfollowing the podcast
religiously, thank you, and youprobably noticed there's been
quite a few single episodescoming out.
It's going to be a big thing ofthis year 2025.
There'll be quite a few singleepisodes coming out, a little
bit of one-on-one action, yeah,but you know what?
It's good to be back togetheragain.
We'll probably come back,probably every month and a bit
(01:31):
on average I'd say, yeah, we'llsee what's happening.
See what's happening.
But today we're talking aboutthe economy.
As you heard earlier, trump isback in office.
If you've been living under arock, you probably still have
heard it, because it's been overevery news platform and people
are talking about it for thegood reasons, bad reasons.
I don't think I've seen or ifyou don't like him On Channel 9,
like just if you have it on thebackground or whatever.
(01:54):
I don't think I've seen a storynot related to him or like
random I did, and a positive one, a positive one.
The other night I was going tomessage you about it.
Wow, I've only seen one otherstory, but you go ahead first.
We've always talked about this.
There was a.
I think it was after the tennis.
It was a tennis on channel nine, yeah, yeah.
So it's after the tennis onenight and it was about trump's
(02:15):
victory so far, wow, in hisfirst week in office.
That is a full hour and a halfof literally on channel nine, on
channel nine, what we're goingto talk about I?
I was shocked as well, becausewhat the heck?
Because they're mainly likemainstream news platforms they
are owned by the left.
Yeah, and we're not thispodcast is about being on the
right or the left.
It's just saying what's goingon.
Just got to put that out therebecause people get sensitive
(02:38):
about it.
Whatever side of the fenceyou're on, it doesn't matter.
It's what's happening, it'sactual facts.
You've got to be aware ofeverything that's going on,
because you're living in a timewhen Trump is president for the
second time Correct, and what'she done so far?
Or what's going to impactAustralia, and that's the main
point of this podcast.
We're going to talk about a fewthings happening in America, how
(03:00):
they correlate to Australia,what we can learn from them and
learn from that, how theycorrelate to Australia, what we
can learn from them and learnfrom that.
So, first of all, manufacturingrevival.
He's brought it back to the US,for example, what I said before
he absolutely prevented thebiggest auto plant in Mexican
history $1.6 billion worth andinstead got basically $700
(03:21):
million invested in Michiganthrough Ford, the company, and
was able to create 700 jobs.
But if that $1.6 billion plantwent ahead in Mexico.
How many people would have lostjobs in Detroit, because
they're obviously largelyautofocused.
And then what repercussionswould that have around the world
, like in Australia, we've seenit.
We used to have Holden right,they were a big manufacturer
(03:42):
here and we've lost allmanufacturing there.
So now we have to importeverything.
There's tariffs, there's costs,so it's really negative.
And he's prevented that overthere.
So that's one really bigpositive effect.
Yeah well, I think that alonecreated 700 jobs in Detroit
itself from investing that intoMichigan.
So that alone is massive.
And that comes back to you knowwhy does this work and the
(04:02):
actual impact on the economy.
So number one is stronger localjobs.
So you're getting more middleclass individuals in America
getting those jobs instead of inMexico, which, if you're an
American, we're not, but ifyou're an American, that's great
.
You want to make sure thatAmerica is a powerhouse that it
used to be and come back towhere it should be realistically
(04:23):
.
As well as that, there's moreinvestment into US factories for
this.
So this is obviously due to themanufacturing stay in Detroit
rather than going offshore.
And then I guess the main thing,we're Australian.
Why does this help us?
How does this actually help us?
Yeah, well, one of the ways is,if they're doing it, what we
(04:45):
notice in Australia is we don'tactually do anything ourselves,
right?
Everything that happens here,we follow suit, whether it's UK
or America.
We back say what happens andthen we just literally follow
Same in the stock market, samein the big.
Yeah, that's right.
So if they're doing somethinglike the, chances are that we're
going to look at that and thinkabout it.
But more US manufacturing,simply put, allows more
(05:07):
Australian exports.
When they're building all thesethings and they've got
factories to operate they neediron ore, they need steel, they
need things that we produce,like even energy, lng, coal,
that kind of thing Then they endup in a position where our
exports are going to be higherif they're manufacturing it,
whereas if it's manufactured inMexico, it's not going to be
coming from us, it's not goingto help us at all, it's not
(05:28):
going to help america.
And then if america and usaren't doing well, then you know
who is.
There's no one that we want tobe doing well.
So that's one way and I guesscould, could we rebuild our
manufacturing industry?
You know, if trump isprioritizing manufacturing,
should we follow soon?
Do the same.
Like history shows up, as youjust mentioned, we do follow.
(05:48):
So I wouldn't be surprised ifwe start following and taking
notes, because we've lost, youknow, so many of our own
industries and it is time tobring it back, like as an
australian it's you know, you,you want it in australia.
I don't know if you actually youwould remember back in the day
when you'd be watching tv oryou'd be shopping or something.
You have the australian maidsymbol.
Yeah, yeah, the kangaroo.
(06:10):
The kangaroo, you rarely seethat these days.
We don't do anything anymore.
We suck.
You see, you see it like veryrarely.
Yeah, I'm like little toys I seesometimes in the supermarket.
Obviously I'm not buying them,or you never know.
You know you might be, but Idon't buy them.
But I do see some of them, butit is so rare.
And the funny thing is onFacebook, when I get ads on
things, if they areAustralian-made, that's their
(06:32):
selling point, because there'sno Australian-made products or
services out there or productsout there these days.
Yeah, that's exactly right.
So it's just bizarre, althoughwe right.
So it's just bizarre, althoughwe might not be in a position
where we can bring back, likecar manufacturing, there's
things that we can definitelystart producing here that we
don't need to import, likethere's so many different things
where we could just go.
Well, why are we actuallyspending the money to import
(06:53):
this where we can just produceit, make it better, do a better
job, sell it here, increase oureconomy?
But hopefully that helps, liketrump's forcing the us companies
to stop outsourcing, to rebuildamerican manufacturing and
australia needs to be taking alot.
No, it's like we've lost ourown industries.
It's time to bring them back.
Just like, bring back the beefand footy, bring them back.
(07:13):
Right, you're saying exactlywhat I said.
We must have been thinking thesame.
Well, bring back the beef,bring back yeah, I know you nrl
fans out there.
Well, it was a big thing,wasn't it?
Even in your AFL, surely theyused to have Biff they could
bring back.
Yeah, that's true, biff means afired punch on for anyone who
isn't following the lingo,that's true.
But yeah, mate, sport itself.
(07:34):
Let's get a bit sidetrackedhere.
Sport's gotten very soft.
Yeah, the top Australianleagues.
I'm not talking like overseas,like Australian, I'm not even
talking overseas.
I was watching for the Americanlisteners out there.
You'd be getting very excitedat the moment.
Super Bowl is coming up, but Iwas watching the Bills and the
Chiefs like what two days ago?
Yeah, good game, that one.
(07:55):
And I saw a penalty forunnecessary aggression and I was
like, oh, I wonder what'shappened here.
I was like there's a flag onthe pitch, let's have a look
what's going on.
And the replay was one youngman walked up to another young
man where they wear helmets andrubbed his helmet on his helmet.
Yes, horrible.
There's a few dodgy calls thatthe Buffalo Bills fans have been
talking about Fair.
(08:15):
But moving on, moving onTariffs yes, all over the news,
all over the news.
We love a good tariff, yep.
So the tariff?
Well, the China's tariff hasbeen removed, yes, which is
great.
So what happened?
Basically, in 2020, chinacrushed the Australian wine
industry by imposing up to 212%tariff, which is huge.
(08:39):
Wine exportation for us was oneof our biggest things in
Australia, especially to China,and they just started absolutely
demolishing us.
Well, yeah, before tariffs, Ibelieve it was around $1.2
billion Australian wine exports.
Yeah, we were huge.
Yeah, and then, after it, it'sbeen less than $1 million in
2023, which is ridiculous.
How bad is that?
(09:00):
That is insane.
Yeah, it's a 1.24 bill to lessthan one mil To less than one
mil.
That is outrageous.
But the good news is the tariffhas been lifted.
That is true, and we can talkabout why and that kind of thing
, which we will.
But first of all, in the firstmonth that it was lifted, we did
$86 million in exports.
(09:22):
Yeah, just in one month, whichis ridiculous.
Yeah.
So we're back.
Our wine industry is going well.
We're rebounding.
The Aussie wine industry isabout to rebound yes, it is
which is perfect.
And the reason that's happeningI mean you can use a bit of
coincidence, I think not.
Logic here is we saw it happenwith China last time Trump was
(09:43):
in power.
We saw a lot of tariffs come in, a lot of problems with trade,
and China's well aware of thefact that they're going to need
to be in a position where theycan bargain with other people
and start trading.
So if they come in and go, heyguys, we're going to remove your
tariff, you can go and startmaking billions more.
Then bang, here we are.
(10:03):
They've just magically removedthe tariff right as Trump's in
office.
I don't know why that wouldhappen.
It's good for us.
That helps Australia.
They know they're in trouble.
They know they've got to pulltheir finger out.
Yeah, so now we've got leverage.
Like Beijing is coming to us,australia's got leverage.
You know we should negotiatesmarter trade deals while China
(10:24):
are actually needing us at themoment.
Like take advantage of it.
Like let's actually get itgoing and bring it back.
Yeah, bring it back and startrelying on other countries too.
Like stop doing everythingthrough China, go to India, go
to Japan I mean, we already do abit of work with the US, but
just start doing everything.
China's not just lifting theirtariffs out of the kindness of
their heart, they're scared thatTrump's going to be a big plus
(10:46):
for Australia and the actualindustry as well, which would be
perfect.
One of my favorite topics totalk about on this one actually
is government efficiency.
We're all aware of Doge, theTrump strategy, where Mr Elon is
(11:09):
out there running amok andshutting down stupid parts of
government and saving taxpayermoney.
I hope we talk about the $50million.
We will.
We will be talking about the$50 million scam.
I can't believe that.
It's the funniest thing I'veever seen.
That is insane.
If anyone knows what I'mtalking about, or if you don't,
you'll know in a minute.
Yeah, just wait and see.
But basically, doge theDepartment of Government
(11:33):
Efficiency.
Who's made Doge.
Yeah, the Department ofGovernment Efficiency Already
saved $450 million in taxpayersAlready.
Already, that's in like a week,two weeks.
Yeah, basically a week and abit.
So what does that actually do?
And I mean, how did they do it?
First of all, one of which theyshut down a bunch of useless
(11:54):
offices that weren't doinganything, spending millions of
dollars with no actualmeasurable benefits.
They were just dumb.
They're going yep, have acompany here, have this there,
have that there, employingcertain people to do certain
positions that shouldn't existand never should have.
And the condoms, the condom, thecondom scandal, the 50 million
(12:14):
to gaza sham of condom shipment.
Yeah, so they were sending 50million dollars worth of condoms
to gaza.
Now, as to why that is, you canspeculate.
Um, I mean, the common senseanswer is people use condoms for
sexual activity, but I don'tknow like what sexual activity
would have been going on right,the last?
(12:34):
No, obviously what washappening was pretty bad, but
why were they giving, likeshipping 50 million dollars
worth condoms to gaza?
There was an argument that theywere using them a as flotation
devices, which is justoutrageous, because the condoms
are going to help you float.
What are you going to?
Blow it up and tie it up andfloat.
But they were also actuallyusing them to like, preserve
(12:57):
stuff.
Yeah, right, so they would likewrap stuff up in them to stop
them from like going rusty andstuff.
But why is the US governmentsending $50 million worth of
condoms to Gaza?
Why are they providing it?
Yeah, and $50 million, like,come on, yeah, send them bubble
wrap or something, if that's aproblem, literally, or something
which actually floats, yeah, ora couple floaties.
(13:18):
And why this is such a bigthing is number one they're
saving so much money $450million already in one to two
weeks.
Imagine how much money they'regoing to save in just this year
alone.
Yeah, and even if they don'tfully, just go all right, well,
don't spend that money, becausewhat you, what you could do the
(13:39):
us government's in a lot of debt, right, like trillions of
dollars.
They could take that off anduse it to repay the money
instead of spending it elsewhere.
But also they could put it indefense, security,
infrastructure, roads, which Ithink they will especially
defense.
I think, yeah, el, I think theywill especially defense.
So I think, yeah, elon andtrump will go straight there.
Yeah, there's so many morethings.
The ai race like.
There's so many things thegovernment could focus on, but
also they do need to pay downthat debt because it's getting
(14:01):
up, oh yeah, and I think we'llsee a bit of that.
And then it makes you think,like, as as a country in
australia, are we spending toomuch on literal, useless
programs?
I think we are.
Oh, absolutely, there's so many.
We do need our own dose toeliminate wasteful spending,
because in Victoria, for exampleit's ridiculous we have the
(14:21):
most debt by far of any state inthe country and the government
there is just.
If you're Victorian, you'dunderstand what I'm talking
about, but no one is happy withthe government there.
It is ridiculous.
What's going on there?
Yeah, we need to figure out.
We need a doge and we need tofigure out foreign aid versus
actual Australian issues.
(14:43):
Like, we need to start figuringout all right, well, why are we
sending X amount of money hereor there or wherever, when we
have our own problems?
And why are we putting moneyinto this and that and certain
schemes?
Yeah, and why are we fundingprograms that don't actually
benefit Australians?
Yeah, even our contribution tothe World Health Organization or
being part of the Paris ClimateAgreement that's exactly right.
(15:05):
You compare our population withChina, then we shouldn't even
be paying a tenth of what theyare.
No, and guess what?
We are.
So lots of stupidity in thegovernment.
But even if you just take allthat into account, we're still
not even breaking the surface.
Like if we actually sat downand audited where every single
dollar our government spendswent, we wouldn't even we'd be
(15:29):
shocked.
In fact, when you do your taxreturn, you get a breakdown.
There's actually a section onthere yeah, really yeah.
So it'll say, like you know, xamount went to defense and x
amount went to, like um, socialsecurity, x amount went to um.
I don't know what anotherexample is, but there's a whole
bunch but on that sheet, alongwith 20 stupid things.
(15:51):
That money shouldn't go placesis just other, yeah, good old
other, yeah, if you've got thecapability, let's actually open
the doors of this other.
What's behind the doors here?
Yeah, if you're breaking downpension versus health, versus
infrastructure and all of that,what is other, yeah, what is
other, yeah, anyway, ridiculous.
(16:12):
Moving on, we'll get on to otherthings going on in the world.
One of the big ones, which Ibelieve is the next one, is the
ceasefires, the hostage releasesand the global stability that's
actually caused.
Finally, it's been a while, andthe funny thing is You're
absolutely right it all startedone man, mr President, at the
moment.
(16:32):
On one interview, he said onehefty threat that I think he was
going to follow through on.
And the people on the receivingend of the threat well, we
should probably release somehostages here.
Well, that's all it is.
It's all about having thestrong leadership and showing
stability and that you'reactually going to do things that
you say you're going to do.
So that's why this has happenedso quick, after or just before
(16:57):
he got in.
So it's under Trump.
The world sees a strong leaderwhich benefits economies
everywhere.
With this getting done, it'sunbelievable because you've got
the commodity market stabilising, you've got investment
confidence increases and, youknow, less economic uncertainty,
which equals a better long-termfinancial planning for
(17:18):
literally.
Well, not just for any of theworld, but more importantly for,
which is great.
Yeah, it's absolutely amazingthat the hostages were held
captive for between 460 to 480days before their release, and
then he comes in and all of asudden, bang, hostages are
(17:38):
getting released.
Everyone around the world iswatching and going all right,
there's a bit more stability,everything's going to start
calming down.
So it's really good to see.
And then you've literally got tothe next point interest rates
are looking to come down.
Now it's funny, everything kindof comes at once.
So you've got with theaustralian.
You know inflation trends aswell.
(18:00):
So in the december 2024 quarter, our cpi rose by 0.2 percent,
which marks an annual increaseof 2.4%, which is good.
Well, within the goal.
Yeah, because it's a decreasefrom 2.8% which was in September
, and the goal is 2 to 3 anyway.
Yeah, exactly right.
So it's like being in themiddle.
And I was listening to a podcasttoday by AMZ.
They do a I think it's 10points every morning, their
(18:24):
10-minute podcast, and they weresaying, well and truly, we're
looking pretty positively for arate drop next month, start next
month, which will be great.
And it's just funny how thishas happened after everything
that we've talked about earlier.
And now Trump's back in power,the whole world, and we saw with
the stock market for that firstweek when Trump got back in on
the election, the crypto marketyeah, crypto market, the day of
(18:51):
Day of when it was actuallyhappening.
It's just ridiculous how muchpower America has and the
leadership and the stabilitythat one person can actually
show, and then we just followsuit.
So it'll be very interesting tosee what happens with the
Australian election at the endof this year or middle of this
year actually.
That will be good to see.
That'll be very interesting.
I'll be extremely shocked if,either February or March, we
(19:12):
don't get an interest rate drop.
I think I'll lose the plot.
I do think in February we'llget a drop, which I'm very
excited for, and then with thatrate drop comes increased
property prices, more lendingpower, so on, so on, so on.
The world goes around.
Everyone makes money.
It so on, so on, so on.
Yes, world goes around,everyone makes money.
It'll be funny seeing everyonekind of jump back into the
property market, like everyonewill be like I want to buy on
about hurry up, hurry up, eventhough they're looking for, you
(19:34):
know, 25 basis point reduction.
It's not, let's say, massive um, and there may only be two or
three this year, but it's a.
It's a good start and peoplewill start feeling more
confident with what they'regoing to do.
Yeah, exactly.
And then on to the final pointto really talk about here.
I mean, there's so manydifferent things we can talk
(19:54):
about, right, but one of thefinal ones is the odd
double-edged sword called thegovernment and their surge in
employment.
I think, and a lot of peopledon't understand this, but
there's a major risk with us atthe moment in the government,
because public sector has beengrowing exponentially, right
Like between August 2022 and 24,82% of new employment in
(20:19):
Australia was in the publicsector.
82%, so that's nearly 700,000people in government jobs.
That is insane, isn't it?
So that means that only 18% ofit was not government.
Oh, yeah, and so now the actualsector share of the workforce
has gone from about 12% to justshy of 20%.
(20:41):
If you've got one-fifth of thepopulation working in government
, then what does that actuallymean and what we need to think
about?
There is okay, well, how?
What does that actually mean?
And what we need to think aboutthere is okay, well, how does
the government get money?
First of all, tax.
How do people pay tax?
They get paid.
If you've got a majority of thepopulation or a large portion
(21:03):
of a population getting paid bythe government, who then pay tax
to the government as, as acancel, cancel it, yeah, it
doesn't do anything.
So if we continue 82 percent,yeah, if we continue at that 82
percent numbers man is, he's gotme here because I didn't know
these numbers.
This is, yeah, that's one.
I've been.
That's alarming.
I've been brewing on that for awhile.
(21:24):
Yeah, I was watching it veryclosely and I was like I don't
know who it was.
I was having a conversationwith someone about it the other
day and they're like, was that abad thing?
I was like what, what do youmean?
It was a bad thing If 82% ofthe workforce in a two-year
period, like new workforce, wasgovernment.
Imagine if that continues for 10more years.
How bad would that be.
(21:44):
And then how does thegovernment end up making money?
They're paying people to paythem tax, but obviously one's a
loser because they can'tgenerate enough.
Yeah, so I guess what couldhappen is our tax might go up,
yeah, well, and it doesn'tLiterally defund it all.
Yeah, it falls back on theactual private sector people,
the people not working forgovernment, the business owners
(22:06):
and the small business employees.
Yeah, like, look, look theplace, it's a great tax on all
the citizens who aren't in thejob.
Yeah, literally.
Yeah, exactly, because eveneven like gst, if the people
majority of the people payinggst work for the government,
then they're just giving moneyback to the government that
they're getting from thegovernment yeah, it doesn't
matter.
Cancels yeah, it's the dumbestthing in the world that needs to
(22:27):
be stopped.
We need more privatization inaustralia.
Um, I don't care where it is, Idon't care how it happens, but
we need it.
Whether it's roads, whetherit's hospitals, whether it's, um
, anything, literally just getthe government out of it.
That's yeah, it's as simple asthat, yeah, and then not only do
you have the financial side ofit, you got the got the control
side of it too, which I mean, noone really views as a problem
(22:50):
in Australia, because we'venever really had it as a problem
, but you can see more and moreof the control that's coming.
So it's an interesting one.
It's not one that I'm overlyexcited about.
No, like, yeah, sure, it canstimulate the economy, it can,
(23:10):
like, provide wages and stuff,but long term it's just a huge
problem.
So, yeah, all in all, australianeeds to wake up to themselves
on every front.
Well, I guess it's good timethat the election is coming.
You know, america is startingto lead the the world again, as
they should, and we're about tofollow suit, hopefully.
And you know, take on whatthey've actually benefited from
this transition that they'vealready had in one or two weeks.
(23:31):
Yeah, because they've made alot of moves, and I'll tell you
what.
What they've done in one or twoweeks is probably more than
what Australia's done in thelast 20 years.
Oh, it's outrageous.
One of the funny things actuallythat came out of it was Doge
came out and they said that in2023 alone, illegal immigrants
cost the government 150 billiondollars.
(23:52):
That is insane.
So in a nation where you're atrillion dollars in debt that
needs to be sorted right.
You throw that in witheverything else and it's only
been two weeks.
Imagine the long-term impact ifaustralia had department of
efficiency.
Imagine.
Imagine the outcome.
Imagine the tax you can save.
Imagine.
Imagine easier, because we'renot in that bad of a situation
(24:12):
compared to America with theirdebt.
No, apart from Victoria yeah,victoria aside, I mean as a
nation yeah, then we couldactually really start making
moves, build up Australia, getthe economy going and turn it
into a thriving, prosperouscountry instead of a I don't
know how to put it a sissy state.
Yeah, a sissy state makes senseat the moment.
(24:32):
Yeah, but if that episoderesonates with any of you or you
know, you're out there watchingChina do news, watching us make
moves, watching America makemoves, wanting manufacturing to
happen here and governmentspending to change.
Share this around with yourfriends, your family yeah, share
it around.
Make moves watching americamake moves, wanting
manufacturing to happen here ingovernment spending to change.
Share this around with yourfriends, your family.
Yeah, share it around.
(24:53):
If they don't know the problem,they can't help contribute to
fixing it.
And the more you share it, themore the podcast grows, and the
more it grows, the better guestswill actually be able to get on
the podcast as well and to totalk about their actual
professions and to share theirknowledge.
So, share it around.
Have a conversation with yourfriend about it.
Yeah, bring me, have aconversation with me.
I'd love to talk about it.
(25:14):
Yeah, pop your number in theshow notes.
That's it.
Numbers in the show notes.
I will not take those calls,but we'll catch you all next
time.
Dale, ciao, as always, we hopeyou enjoyed the episode and if
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