Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Anthony Albanese's
bill gets denied.
Consumer spending is at anall-time low and our interest
rates finally going to drop.
Catch it all in today's episodeof the Finance Show with Joe.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Welcome to the
Finance Show with Joe.
He's Joe, I'm just some schmo.
And Anthony Albanese's billjust got blocked by a strange
coalition, not the coalition theGreens and the coalition
agreeing.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
For once, I'm happy,
but at the same time there are
going to be I think one third ofnew home buyers or first home
buyers are going to be veryupset, but I don't think they
understand the fullramifications of this bill.
Now the coalition is opposingthis bill because they oppose
(00:49):
everything.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
It's just what they
do, yeah, the opposition.
That's how it works.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
That's how it works,
but the Greens don't want to
approve anything in regards tohousing because they want to
remove negative gearing.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Yes, Capital gains.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Reduce capital gains,
gains, all these things.
The funny thing is I actuallydon't think they understand what
this bill is, because this is abill specifically for owner
occupied properties and youdon't get any of that stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
You don't get
negative gearing, you don't get
you know I don't reallyunderstand why they're like I do
, but I don't.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
They're basically
like it doesn't go far enough,
which I guess look, I canunderstand it, but I don't
actually like the proposal thatwas brought by our on this one,
well, the labor party.
So this is the shared equityscheme, I believe.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, where it's the
help to buy.
It's the help to buy.
Shared equity scheme.
Government would supportfirst-time buyers with a smaller
deposit to get into theproperty market.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
So they were trying
to help people with a 2% deposit
purchase a property.
That's all well and good, butit's different to the home
guarantee scheme.
So the home guarantee scheme iswhere the government comes in
and acts as a guarantor for theremaining 18%.
So you would still get a homeloan, yeah.
Okay, it would be 5% from you,95% from the lenders, with 15%
(02:14):
coming from the government as aguarantor.
Okay, but you still have to payit all back.
Yeah, but you own that propertyoutright.
From my understanding correctme if I'm wrong on this
particular scheme, what thegovernment wanted to do was have
shared equity in every singleproperty that was purchased.
So it would be 62% owned by thebuyer originally and then 38%
(02:38):
owned by the government.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
That's potentially
the case, I don't know.
I don't see.
To be honest, I haven't foundan article that is actually
adequately explaining this bill.
They're mostly explaining why,um, these parties were opposed
to it.
Obviously the coalition'sopposed to it, because it's the
coalition yeah, that's their job.
The greens are opposed to itbecause they want to include
things about renters and stuffand they say that this scheme is
(03:02):
only going to further increasehouse prices, which is stupid
again because Adam Bent clearlyhas never got it like pulled out
a mortgage calculator.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
So they've capped
this is okay.
The Greens are idiots.
I do agree with some of theirthings but they're actually dumb
.
And let me explain why.
They've capped this where yoursalary needs to be between
$90,000 and $120,000.
So you would not be able toapply for this scheme if you
make $120,001.
(03:35):
Okay, it needs to be between$90,000 and $120,000 that you
make Now between that salaryrange.
If you are earning that much,your borrowing is so limited
with the current interest ratesthat you won't be able to
purchase something that is goingto grow exponentially in value
(03:56):
At $120,000 salary per year foran owner-occupied purchase and
this is only for owner-occupiedpurchases, it's not for
investment purchases Forowner-occupied purchases, you
would be able to borrow amaximum of $500,000.
With a 2% deposit, that meansyou're going to have a $510,000
property.
What can you buy in Sydney, atVictoria, for $510,000?
(04:20):
I don't even know if you can.
It's a one-bedroom apartment,western Sydney, certain parts of
Victoria or certain parts ofMelbourne.
So like those apartments thatare near the Panther Stadium or
something, you could possiblypurchase something in Liverpool,
but they've gone up to about570 now you could potentially
purchase something.
I'm just trying to think ofother areas like old red bricks
(04:42):
in Parramatta, in Fairfield.
These properties don't behavelike other properties.
They don't spike up in value.
They're old, they'redeteriorated.
They're not things that peoplego, okay, yeah, I'm going to buy
that and it's going to make mea ton of money.
They're usually in strata lotsor their company titles as well.
(05:05):
So by him saying, oh, this isonly going to drive property
prices up, it's not because theonly part of the market that is
actually affected by this, thatis actually affected by
owner-occupied properties withthat price range, the only part
of the market are the market areproperties that don't spike up
(05:27):
in value like other propertiesdo.
If this was allowable forinvestors, if you know, I could
go purchase something with a 2%deposit as an investor.
First of all, I'm jumping onthat.
Yeah, super, such a low deposit.
But the second thing is,between that 90,000 to 120
thousand dollar range, I'dprobably be able to buy
something with $800,000,$900,000.
(05:48):
Okay, okay, now we're talking.
I'm getting house, I'm gettingland, I'm buying Perth, as
always, or Brisbane, I'm lookingat those locations, but for
this particular salary.
I just don't think that theGreens I think they actually
have their own agenda.
They keep pushing their extremeagenda of we want negative
gearing on, we want capitalgains.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
It's never going to
happen.
Yeah, they want to change thecapital gains discount.
Okay, I think their basic thingis and this is just really
reflective of their voter base,typically speaking is they're
constantly focused on renterspeople who don't own property.
Basically, their whole bigthing is none of these bills fix
anything for renters and thereis a rental crisis going on
(06:29):
right now in Sydney Eased off,it's finally eased off.
It's finally eased off.
Well, there you go, but still,that's part of their big thing
is making things better forrenters.
So they keep blockingeverything that's going through.
Not so much because I thinkthey genuinely think house
prices will go up as a result.
I think it's just becausethey're trying to include either
(06:51):
renter protections or some sortof rent cap or something like
that, I think.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
Labor came in with a
bill that was not feasible, and
I also think the Greens are justbeing stubborn.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
The Greens are
absolutely being stubborn.
Speaker 1 (07:08):
I think they're not
seeking this through.
I think they're not actuallyhelping their base.
No, I don't think so, Becauseif somebody could get into the
market with a 2% deposit 2%deposit on a $500,000 property
is 10 grand.
Okay, A lot of these people doprobably have $10,000 in savings
.
I'm not going to say everyonedoes, but there's a high
(07:30):
possibility that I think they'reonly going to allow 30,000
spots.
There's a high possibility that30,000 of those first-time
buyers had $10,000 in savings.
He's actually removing theopportunity for them to go and
purchase and have something ofvalue to their name because he's
(07:52):
being stubborn about rentcontrol and negative gearing and
capital gains discount and allthose other things.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Was this the bill
that was going to cut taxes for
developers who build rentalcomplexes?
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
Okay, I don't know,
but I can get around that too.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Okay, yeah, okay,
yeah.
The help to buy.
Let's say that's the build torent bill that I was thinking of
, which both the Greens and theCoalition are also opposed to.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Okay, yeah, it's just
very cool stuff.
Moving on from that, we've gotsome really interesting data
that has come out.
So we, moving on from that,we've got some really
interesting data that has comeout.
So we mentioned this twoepisodes ago where twice a year,
the data on retail spending,consumer spending, comes out.
It's usually mid-year and thenit comes out at the end of the
year as well.
Yeah, so we've got the julyreport from the abs.
(08:40):
I can't stop laughing because,like, the consumer spending is
at an all-time low and this iswhat the government wanted.
When it's how you curbinflation yeah, it's how you
curb inflation you increase theinterest rates, you make
everyone go broke and yay, okay,everything's normal again.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, and then you
got to start over again and
build that up.
Speaker 1 (08:57):
You got people living
in tetsu, brisbane, that's
neither here nor there, but Ijust want to give you guys the
comparables.
Okay, so the consumer spendingright.
April 2021, you, you remember,you remember, you remember, I
remember.
I pointed it out too much.
I actually don't remember April2021, everybody was just online
shopping.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah,
yeah, yeah man, I bought so
much athleisure at the time.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Discretionary
spending peaked at 45.6%.
So that means whatever you gotas your salary, you were
spending 46% of that on justwhatever you wanted.
That has now dropped in July Ican't stop laughing.
July 2024 to 1.4%.
(09:41):
Yeah, that means if you're, ifyou, I can't stop laughing.
Like if you earn a thousanddollars a week, there is a big
likelihood that, like I'mtalking your retail spending,
your dumb shit, you're spendingprobably 14 bucks a week Like
everything else is going onStraight up Groceries petrol?
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Yeah, straight up.
I feel that completely becauseI'm not buying anything.
If it isn't food, mortgage orelectricity and water and all
that shit, I'm not spending.
I needed new shoes.
I finally got new shoes and Ibought them this week because I
found a sweet deal on cash.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Were they the $39.99
Chuck Taylors?
Speaker 2 (10:24):
No, no, these are
real ones.
No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
but I'm saying were
they the $40 ones they had?
Speaker 2 (10:28):
No, no, they were
$100, but down for $150.
Okay, yeah that's pretty goodand I needed new shoes because
my other ones literally hadholes in the side.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
You can't be walking
around with holes in the side,
the city, that's again.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I still have them for
housework, but I am feeling it
Like that's how much.
It wasn't that much.
It's not that much money, butit is a lot of money right now.
It is?
Speaker 1 (10:47):
It definitely is.
And because you live in NewSouth Wales we all live in
Sydney New South Wales was hitthe hardest, with people
spending 0.2% less than theywere 12 months ago.
Yeah, so they're saying that,like in sydney, australia that
is the hub for like businessesare definitely turning over.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
less restaurants are
really doing it tough the report
said that transport services,hotels, cafes and restaurants
are the ones that are copying itthe most transport services so
I'm assuming I don't know, isthat public transport?
Speaker 1 (11:20):
are we talking uber?
Speaker 2 (11:21):
taxis.
I I'm going to assume Uber andtaxis because I imagine people
would be jumping on the train tosave money, or buses.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
But they're expensive
too.
Speaker 2 (11:29):
Yeah, they have gone
up, which again feels backwards.
It does.
Yeah, what are we supposed todo?
Petrol goes up, the train goesup, the bus goes down.
How do I go anywhere.
You know what?
Speaker 1 (11:42):
I'm doing well.
No, like you know, like I'mwaking up at like 2 am.
Oh, I'm working until 7 amevery day, just so I can produce
more income for my household.
Okay, fair enough, I've got abusiness running and, you know,
I've got people that work for me.
But that is what I am doing tomake sure that, like, I have a
competitive edge over othermortgage brokers.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
It's just, it's crazy
.
So I've got a few of myfavorite stats here.
Alcohol beverages and tobaccohas dropped the most, as people
are spending 10% less this yearthan last year.
Speaker 2 (12:16):
I have two theories
on this.
Yeah, as it relates to alcohol,the beer tax has gone up and it
just keeps going up.
So, like a case is now likewhat?
65 bucks on average.
It used to be 50 to 55, thatwas normal.
Um, so last year and a halfit's gone up to, yeah, 65 bucks.
Smokes, and I don't know aboutanybody, anybody else, but
(12:38):
nobody's buying them legallyanymore.
Basically, everybody's buyingthe dodgy ciggy ciggies that are
just imported by, frankly,organized crime.
Okay, it's been because the taxon legal ciggies is so high and
it just keeps going higher,that when you find, when your
regular tobacconist just has the, um, this illegal stuff, this
imported stuff, and it's only 15bucks as opposed to 60 bucks,
(13:01):
it's a no-bra60.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
It's a no-brainer $60
for a pack of cigarettes.
If you're a pack-a-day smoker,that's a $420-a-week habit.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Yeah, and it's a
complete no-brainer.
People are switching nowbecause vapes are a bit harder
to no, they're not actually.
Here's the thing.
There's a whole black marketwith nicotine and everyone's
buying on that.
So none of this like reportingis being like reported to the
government so you think that thedata is skewed because of
(13:31):
illegal activity?
Yeah, 100 I think I think theabc released a report and it's
something like 45 of tobaccosales are illegal.
What?
Speaker 1 (13:39):
yeah, it's like
ridiculous so okay, let me, let
me.
I'm getting rid of that one.
This, it can't be illegal.
This one has to be darted well,official.
But clothing and footwear isdown three percent, yeah, yeah.
So nobody's buying clothesanymore.
People are buying foot shoes.
This is one like during covid,I could not get for the life of
(14:01):
me like the pair of Nike's thatI wanted.
Now they're in discount bins.
Like you can find Kobe's on theshelf, you can find Jordan's on
the shelf.
I love sneakers.
I've played basketball for 20years, retired now, no longer
the Lebanese Draymond Green, butthat is a lot less than what it
was.
And then this is the big one,and this is the state that's
(14:23):
known for culture, fashion, food, everything.
Victoria is spending eightpercent less on clothing and
footwear than they were a yearago 100.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
That's where I'm
saving my money.
I'm just not buying any clothes, I'm talking victoria as a
whole.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
So their property
prices are down, investment is
down in the state, but alsospending is down as well.
Yeah, so I think victoria mighthave its own little mini
recession, just that state alone, because they're just not
income producing enough for thesupply that they have, all the
employment that they have.
If we get hit by massiveunemployment, I think it's going
(14:52):
to start in that state first,before it starts anywhere else
interesting.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
Do you think that
it's because of victorian
policies, um, that are activelytrying to tackle these things at
the expense of, let's say,investors or big business and
stuff like that?
Victoria has always beenleft-leaning, yeah, yeah, yeah,
behind that.
No, no, no, I'm not evennecessarily saying that, but
just their specific statepolicies.
(15:15):
Because New South Wales, we'rekind of just not really changing
anything.
We're just full steam ahead.
This is what we're doing, andobviously we're not buying
anything.
No, we're just full steam ahead.
This is what we're doing, andobviously we're not buying
anything and nothing's changing.
So then there's no point atwhich the market sort of does
its downturn, does a reset andthen has the opportunity for an
upturn.
We're just sort of plateauing.
Yeah, is that a bad thing forus and a good thing for
(15:35):
Melbourne in the long term?
Speaker 1 (15:36):
No, See, this is why
I'm not the economist no, no.
So the way that, like anytrough, anything like that, like
people are exiting the marketin Victoria in droves Okay, I
could go on a Trump rent rightnow, but I'm not going to.
Last episode, I complimentedMelbourne, but there's a new
investor tax on property and youcan't lease the property as
(15:59):
well because there's anoversupply Okay, and you can't
lease the property as wellbecause there's an oversupply
Okay.
So, if you're getting 2% yieldon a $500,000 property, but you
also can't find a tenant for theproperty, and then, on the back
of that, because there's somany extra apartments coming in,
there's so many new buildings,you can't receive the capital
appreciation.
At the same time, you're goingto get this stagnation and I
(16:22):
think Victoria's poised to havetheir own mini recession in that
state alone, because data's onthe wall People are spending a
lot less.
What happens when people spendless?
People lose jobs.
What happens when people losejobs?
Oh, okay, housing goes down.
And then what happens afterthat?
Well, we've got all thishousing coming in Cool, who can
(16:44):
afford it outside of investors?
Well, investors don't want toinvest there because you've
thrown all these new taxes there.
They're going to get investedin queensland.
That's my little prediction onvictoria.
Okay, will I be right?
Speaker 2 (16:54):
probably not I mean
you could.
You can't predict the future,that's the whole thing, but it's
just it's.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
you know, if it
wasn't for their tourism which
is great, and the way that theyplan the city, they'd probably
lose a lot of their big events.
They already lost the Olympics.
Like Brisbane got the Olympics,not Melbourne, there's heavy
investment in Brisbane.
I want to go into our nexttopic.
So the Federal Reserve droppedtheir interest rate.
Speaker 2 (17:15):
This is the American
RBA.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
They literally
dropped it by half a percent,
first time they've done a cutsince 2020 during COVID.
I want to make some predictionsfor the interest rates, as the
consumer spending is at anall-time low.
They're saying that theovernight cash rate is predicted
to be 3.2% by next year, whichmeans my interest rate, your
interest rate, is going to beabout 5.2%.
That'd be great.
That's going to increase yourspending, I think, for, like
(17:40):
your scenario, your spendinggoes up $22,000 a year.
That'd be awesome.
The banks are already reducingtheir fixed rates, so Macquarie
has led the way with 5.59% fixedfor two and three year
mortgages and 5.79% forinvestment loans.
Even interest only is down to5.89%.
I really like we have a rateupdate.
(18:04):
This Tuesday.
The RBA is meeting.
We said it with the episodewith Manny.
We don't think they're going todrop the rates because
Australia is slow to the party,as always.
Marijuana has been legal aroundthe world for 20 years, but
Australia I don't know what itis here it's not illegal, I mean
it is illegal, but it's justlike walk man walk around the
(18:26):
streets.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
It doesn't really
seem that illegal.
Speaker 1 (18:29):
It's not like we
don't have dispensaries, yeah
yeah, yeah, 100%.
Do you have any predictions forthis Tuesday?
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Look, I'm a bit of a
pessimist.
I just don't really see therates falling.
Like you said, we're slow tothe party, so I just don't
really the rates falling.
Like you said, we're slow tothe party.
So I just don't really as muchas I'd like it to happen,
because, good for me, I don'tsee it actually happening.
I definitely just see themkeeping it going, because what's
inflation at?
What's the inflation rate at?
Speaker 1 (18:55):
Well, this is the
thing.
This quarterly report said thatit was only 0.2%.
Oh well, then they should.
Year on year we're at like 3.2.
Okay, but like the economy onlygrew by 0.2% in the last
quarter.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
That was buoyed by
both immigration and government
spending.
Speaker 1 (19:11):
But if you annualize
data, like if you annualize that
0.2, that becomes 0.8.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
So you're saying we
have inflation possibly under
control, possibly Like theserate rises have actually done
their job.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
Finally, they're
saying that.
But who's the reserve bank ranby?
It's ran by, not Phil Blowanymore no, not Phil Blow, but
it's ran by a bunch of schmucks,ex-bankers and a lot of the
time.
They're thinking and I'm goingto be honest with you they are a
business.
They need to start thinkingabout their profits as well and
all that stuff.
They're making record moneyright now.
All the banks are.
They need to based on the factthat they gave out so much money
(19:46):
during COVID.
They're going to recoup thosefunds.
But this is the issue.
Australia's always slowed tothe party.
How much more can people take?
And it's getting to the pointnow.
I'm refinancing personal loansfor people everywhere.
I'm helping people get out ofdebt.
People are coming off theirfixed rates still so phone call
this morning I was on 2.2%.
My rate's about to jump up to8%.
(20:06):
What can you do for me?
Speaker 2 (20:09):
That would hurt so
much.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
A lot of the banks
are predicting these interest
rates drop.
It's returning buyer sentimentto the market.
People want to buy property nowbecause they're like, oh, I'll
buy it now, I'll buy it cheap,and then when the interest rates
go up, my house will go up invalue yeah, but just not picking
up the vibe.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
I'm just not picking
it up, I don't know, because
it's all vibe, isn't it like wedon't?
We don't know?
Sentiment's the professionalway to say it.
I'm saying vibe, consumersentiment is definitely on the
way, this bloke buys houses onvibes, more vibes.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
I love it.
No but um.
The one bank that I want totouch on a and z has tipped the
rates to go up yeah, what thefuck?
Speaker 2 (20:52):
I just I just feel
like I'm on board with a and z
again.
I don't want that to happen.
Maybe I'm just pessimist.
I'm just like I prepare for theworst, hope for the best.
But unemployment's still at4.2%, and what does that have to
be Around 5%?
Speaker 1 (21:06):
This is my issue with
unemployment, though Just
because somebody's employeddoesn't mean they're making
enough money.
There's a difference betweenunemployment and underemployment
.
You can be employed and workingtwo hours a week.
This is true.
This is true.
You can be working and you canbe eight hours a week.
Yeah, just because just becauseyou are employed does not mean
you have a sufficient enoughsalary.
And are they looking at thatdata as well?
(21:26):
Are they looking at theunderemployment data?
Because I can guarantee you,there are a lot of people out
there that are working permanent, part-time, they're working
these hours and they are notreceiving enough money to be
able to sustain a living.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
I mean, that's
definitely true.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
Interest rates.
Are they going to go up down?
Drop a comment below.
I would love to know.
I want to get into a marketupdate and specifically I want
to talk about Sydney Southwest.
So I want to kind of touch onwhere we think the best buy is
currently, and there's threesuburbs in particular that I
think are good.
We've got Austral, we've gotLeppington and we've got
(22:08):
Catherinefield.
So Austral the prices havesteadied.
Austral's only grown by like 1%in the last year, but the
rental yield has increased.
So the rental yield is up toabout 5%.
So you're buying at about$890,000.
That's the median sale price.
You're getting about $750 aweek rent there.
So you're going to get a yieldof 4.4%.
I did the calculation beforethe show.
(22:28):
How good am I?
But 4.4% in New South Wales,sydney, sydney-based, 45 minutes
away from the CBD.
That's a good score.
Leppington prices have droppeddue to oversupply.
There are too many propertiesfor sale there Crazy.
It's down 2.1% in the last 12months, but rent is up 8% and
(22:52):
it's up to $745 a week, which is3.3% yield.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
And that's a result
of the landowners wanting to pay
back against their interestrates.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Yes, that is
fantastic.
That is fantastic.
That is great, like that is agreat buy.
My personal opinion, not advice, not specific, very general,
very general advice, just data,but that is great.
Rental yield, and then lastly,is Catherine Field is up 5% for
the last year and rent is steadyat $700 a week.
So Catherine Fields is stillgetting a little bit of that
(23:24):
capital growth.
But it's at a point in themarket where these three suburbs
, they are doing so well rightnow.
And I'm thinking to myself okay, austral, which has always been
considered like a premium sortof suburb, especially with all
Badger's Creek, everybody talksabout it at every barbecue.
Oh, the airport, yeah, it'sclose to there.
(23:44):
I just think Austral right now,personally, that is probably
the best buy in New South Wales.
If somebody approaches me andthey ask me for general advice,
I think that that might be thebest location for them to
purchase.
What do you think?
Speaker 2 (24:01):
I mean, it sounds
good.
Ostril, right next to bloodyElizabeth, green Valley yeah,
okay, my grandparents livedthere Anyway, so is it a good
location Actually?
Yeah, it's pretty nice.
It's quiet, if that's whatyou're into.
I think it's a bit of a pain inthe ass if you need to work in
the CBD or in and around the CBD, which I guess a lot of people
(24:23):
do, but not everybody does.
Yeah, I reckon it'd be great ifyou're a trainee.
What if you're a school teacher?
Oh, fantastic, then there's abunch of schools around there.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
Okay, what if you're
a nurse or you're in hospitals?
There's got to be hospitals.
I'm pretty sure it's in theLiverpool area, hospitals close
to.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Liverpool.
Speaker 1 (24:47):
Yeah, I would say the
Liverpool Hospital.
So yeah, so pretty close.
You could even go CampbelltownIf you are in the market and
you're looking for somethingthat's a good buy in a good
location that effectively wouldprobably go up in the near
future.
That will help you pay yourmortgage repayments, especially
because of that rental.
I can't believe how good thatrental yield is.
Take a look at Austral.
I think that would be a goodone for you.
There you go.
My name is Joe.
That is definitely some schmo.
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(25:08):
you're a first-time buyer,you're looking to refinance,
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visit us at wwwitsimplecomau.