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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Fiscal Physical Podcast.
Join us each week as we sitdown with the founder of Alchemy
Wealth Management and author ofyour Fiscal Physical, Ryan
Nelson.
Tune in to gain valuableinsights and practical tips as
we simplify complex financialconcepts into digestible lessons
(00:22):
.
From budgeting to retirementplanning, this podcast is your
go-to resource for masteringfinancial literacy.
Aaron Hoisington (00:33):
Welcome everybody to this week's episode
of the Fiscal Physical Podcast.
Ryan Nelson is here with me, asalways, the founder of Alchemy
Wealth Management, one of mygood buddies, and it's good to
be here.
Man, glad we got this longevityand let's go ahead and jump in,
because one of the things wewouldn't be doing this podcast
if we didn't have listeners, andfor a while we didn't have many
(00:56):
listeners and now we have a fewlisteners.
So thank you so much toeverybody there.
But we got a listener questionhere and I want to plug first
shamelessly.
Please send us these questions.
We love them.
Email us, podcast atalchemywealthcom, text us, call
us.
Whatever it might be.
We'd love to hear from you andthis one comes.
Can one navigate market crashesand economic recessions?
(01:19):
For context, this is related touncertainty associated with the
move so far in 2025.
But I'm pretty sure you canprobably apply this to, honestly
, any year of the financialsystem.
(01:40):
So, ryan, I'm going to go aheadand let you kind of take this
here about, like how would youbest answer Brandon's question?
What would you provide?
And just to everybody out there, yeah.
Ryan Nelson (02:01):
So I think any's a reasonable emotion to have and I
think that, yeah, I thinkthat's completely fine.
It's okay to like experiencesomething or kind of have some
unknowns and just acknowledgethat it.
Yeah, this feels a little bituncomfortable or it's a little
bit scary.
So I think it's completelyreasonable to feel that way and
to acknowledge that feeling.
At the same time, I think wealso want to apply some logic to
(02:24):
it and make sure that thoseinitial emotions we have don't
drive us to make a decision wewould regret in future years.
So a couple of things I wouldsay.
Like you said, you know sothere's this really common
phrase in the finance industry.
It says like this time isdifferent.
(02:44):
So it's like the market goesdown, the financial advisor says
, oh, it's going to come back up, just stay the course.
And then they say, but thistime is different.
And so they say those are themost dangerous words in
investing, or the most expensivewords in investing.
There's lots of differentquotes about it, but I think
that every year has something init that is unprecedented, right
(03:08):
, and whether that's thepandemic, some inflation, a
potential war, tech bubbles,interest rate hikes, right,
there's always something goingon, and I think it's fair for us
to acknowledge that.
Yes, maybe this exact specificevent has not happened before.
Right to acknowledge that.
Like yes, maybe this exactspecific event has not happened
before.
Right, like there was, like,all this drastic inflation.
(03:31):
It's like, yeah, we haven'tseen this for a hundred years
since the tulip bubble, or, youknow, there's a pandemic.
It's like, well, we haven'tseen this in a hundred years
since the last one.
Right, so it is, you know.
I think it's reasonable to seethese things and say, yeah, it
is different.
Maybe this exact situation hasnever come up before, right, but
I love that Mark Twain quotehistory doesn't repeat itself,
but it does rhyme, but it oftenrhymes, and so the same thing is
(03:52):
true, right, yeah, when we saythat stay the course, and that
we've seen market volatility inthe past, we don't mean that
we've seen every exact possiblescenario of all mankind in the
past, right, what we'rereferring to is, yes, markets
behave in a certain way andthere may be some impetus that
(04:13):
causes some reaction in themarkets, and we've seen that
reaction in the markets before,right, and so the impetus itself
could be different.
Again, let's not get too caughtup in that.
But so, again, history doesn'trepeat itself, but it often
rhymes.
And so, again, we've seen thisstuff in the past.
Like, let's just put somecontext to this.
So the market drops 5% or more.
(04:35):
Let's look at averages over thelast about 70 years worth of
data.
So these are averages in themarket over the last about 70
years.
The market drops 5% or moreabout once every year.
So what that means is, yeah,every single year.
We should expect some point intime, like, if we're investing,
we should expect probably somepoint in time where market's
down 5% throughout that year.
That'd be just a normal,typical year, nothing out of the
(04:58):
ordinary.
So if we're looking at about 70years worth of data, it's
happened about 70 times If themarket's dropped 10% or more,
about every 30 months.
So that's about every two and ahalf years, so almost every
other year.
Right, we're witnessing themarket drop 10% or more.
So, again, if we're looking atlike 70 years worth of data,
(05:18):
we're talking about thishappening like 30 times, sure,
yeah.
So again, it's not uncommon forthe market to drop 10% or more.
Yes, each of those times.
If it dropped 30 times, yes,each of those 30 times were
slightly different, but again,it all rhymes.
But so a 10% drop or more isn'tnecessarily uncommon or
something we didn't foreseecoming.
(05:39):
The market drops 15% or moreabout every five years.
So again, if we're looking at70 years worth of data, it's
like, hey, we will have seenthis thing happen about 14 times
, right?
So about every five years,market will drop 15% or more.
And the market will drop 20% ormore about every six years.
So again, over a 70-year timeperiod, you're going to see 12
or something of these instancesof the market dropping 20% or
(06:02):
more.
So again, I say all that toalmost normalize the risk and
market declines, right, it's notsomething that none of us see
coming.
If we sort of study history, soto speak, we know that there's
going to be 5% declines, there's10% declines, even 20% declines
aren't uncommon.
There's been lots of them inthe past, right, and we expect
(06:23):
more of them in the future.
Just quite frankly.
Aaron Hoisington (06:26):
Yeah, and I just want to pause there, just
to really, I think that you'rerattling off these figures and
they're awesome.
It really paints the context oflike, hey, this time's
different.
You hear that on the news allthe time.
You're just like, whether it befinancial or whatever it is,
it's like hey, we've seen thiskind of before, but this time's
different, yeah for sure.
Really, to just what you justsaid, over the last seven years,
(06:48):
oh, this has happened 14 times,or this has happened 24 times
over this past time.
So, like the idea of, like youknow everything not everything's
doom and gloom or whatever butto really put someone's mind at
ease, of like, hey, you know, a5% drop, we're probably due for
something like that so just tobe able to think about, hey, the
sky's not falling when thathappens.
(07:09):
It's just part of the cyclical,almost nature of it
specifically.
So I think that that's reallyimportant.
I'm sure you talked to yourclients about that I know you
talked to me about that but Iwant everybody to know that it
really hammer home that it's notuncommon for these things to
happen for sure, exactly, and soI would say that let's talk a
little bit about what happensduring a quote-unquote crash.
Ryan Nelson (07:31):
Sure, and so asset prices start to decline.
That creates fear and sometimespanic for some people, so that
accelerates the drop.
If somebody gets a littlescared and they sell more, that
makes it drop a little bit more.
Then news headlines intensifythat negative sentiment.
It's kind of this snowballeffect that starts building on
itself right and then soinvestors will sell more right,
(07:52):
and oftentimes you're selling atthe worst time you don't want
to sell when it's down right.
And then there's maybe someeconomic slowdowns that lead to
potential job losses or reducedspending and slower growth, and
so it's just kind of thiscompounding thing that builds on
itself, and so, again goingback to the beginning, it's fair
for that to be scary.
Right, it doesn't mean we wantto make a rash decision with our
(08:13):
finances, but it's fair to lookat that and say, man, this is a
little bit uncomfortable.
It would also, though, be fairto look at it and say this is
kind of part of the system.
I understand this happens, andmaybe it doesn't even fear you.
The more you sort of empoweryourself with knowledge and
start to familiarize yourselfwith what happens, you might
find yourself even in a position, though, where what once scared
you now doesn't even bother you.
(08:35):
You just understand it as partof the process, and so I always
like to say in this question Idon't know that it was
specifically towards recessions,and there's sort of a
definition of recessions, butnot worrying about that so much
what I would say is recessionsare normal, so they're a part of
the cycle, not a failure of thesystem.
So, again, as we're investing,this is a part of this
investment cycle, not a failureof the system.
(08:57):
I think a lot of times.
We think of this as oh my God,there's a recession, the system
must be failing, right?
It's like no, that's part ofthe cyclical cycle of investing.
We expect this to happenAnytime it happens.
That's completely like we maynot have anticipated exactly why
or exactly when, but we doanticipate there will be another
(09:17):
one.
That's part of the naturalcycle of investing.
It's not a failure of thesystem if that makes sense.
Yeah, oh it absolutely does.
Aaron Hoisington (09:25):
I'm guessing you probably didn't make up that
quote.
That's probably a pretty commonone.
The recessions are normal.
They're part of the cycle, nota failure of the system.
Ryan Nelson (09:32):
No, I've never heard that quote before.
Oh okay, yeah, yeah.
Aaron Hoisington (09:35):
Quote it quick .
Ryan Nelson (09:36):
Should I publish that?
Yeah, I was going to say shouldwe copyright that?
Can you copyright that?
Yeah, that's great.
Yeah, I'm sure.
Aaron Hoisington (09:42):
But yeah, that's a really good, great way
to paint it.
For sure, it's part of thecycle, like it's.
Yeah, the panic piece of it isI think about it like this just
a little personal thing In 2020,when COVID happened and
everybody was getting laid offand sent home and all these
different things.
At that point, it's just funny.
It's like, what do you do atthat time?
(10:03):
Those situations and my thing,my fiancé, at the time we
started working with you at thatpoint, that's when we were like
, hey, you know what Like weneed to.
we don't know what's going tohappen here, but we're guessing
it's probably everything's goingto probably be okay.
But let's start planning forthis, like what happens if this
step and I don't know if it's aright, wrong time you never
(10:28):
really know what that, thosekind of things but um, I think
it's just important to like, hey, how do you, how do you now
view these certain opportunity,more of opportunities, versus
like really negative things Isuppose.
So, um yeah, just a littlepersonal anecdote there, but I
love it yeah, um, yeah, so, umnow.
Ryan Nelson (10:40):
So we kind of talked about, like, what happens
during a market crash.
Now let's talk about how youcould navigate it wisely.
So the best thing have a planbefore it hits.
Now, if it's already, if you'rein the middle of this, you
can't go retroactive back andcreate a plan right, but like
you know, I use this quote allthe time.
This one I can't attribute tome.
I don't know who to attributeit to, but like the best time to
(11:00):
plant a tree is 20 years ago.
The second best time to plant atree is today, right.
And so, similarly, I'm tellingyou, create a plan.
If you didn't already create aplan in the past, create it now,
right.
And so you should come up witha plan for your asset allocation
, what your time horizon is,what your risk tolerance is.
You should have an investmentplan and then, if you're
(11:21):
properly invested, the crashisn't going to change your
strategy.
It should be affirming yourstrategy.
And so, yeah, if there's amarket crash, perfect.
If we have a plan ahead of time, we're following that plan.
We already know our assetallocation, we know our time
horizon, we know our risktolerance and we're able to stay
the course.
And it's pretty funny.
I've had lots of conversationsover the last number of weeks
(11:43):
with clients, and a reoccurringtheme is they thought their
portfolio would be down morethan it is.
But we are appropriatelyinvested, with the right time
horizon, the right risktolerance, and they're always
shocked at how well theiraccount has performed relative
to their perception of whatwould have happened.
And again, that's just aproduct of having a plan,
(12:05):
knowing what we're workingtowards, evaluating a proper
risk tolerance and risk capacityand then applying this.
And again, they're not takingunneeded amounts of risk.
What I hear all the time issomebody will just be like
invested in the S&P 500.
They don't have a plan, they'renot taking the right amount of
risk.
They just said oh, I heard thatinvesting in the S&P 500 is a
cheap way to invest.
It's like, yeah, it is a cheapway.
(12:26):
Is that a good plan?
What's your plan, what's yourgoal, and so again, these are
the times where it really sortof brings some of this stuff to
light and you can start toactually see like, oh okay, this
is the value of a plan, this isthe value of taking the right
of risk, and again it just kindof sheds some light on that.
The other thing I'd say soagain how to navigate this
(12:46):
wisely would be do not try totime the market.
So timing the market again, wedid a podcast on this, but I
love the quote.
It's time in the market, nottiming of the market.
So the key is to be investedfor a long time, not trying to
get in at the bottom and sell atthe top.
Nobody has that crystal ball.
Nobody can accurately predictit.
(13:06):
You'd have to theoreticallypredict it twice.
You'd have to know when thebottom is and the top is.
It's hard enough to predict itonce.
You're not going to predict ittwice.
It's a fool's errand.
Oftentimes the biggest gainscome after the biggest losses.
So you'll see a lot of times,after some of those really
really bad days in the market,what happens the next day or in
the next couple of days.
Oftentimes there's a reallyreally good day, right.
(13:31):
So if you're out of the market,you're going to miss those sort
of like bounce back days, asthey call them.
The other thing I'd say isfocus on what you can control.
So I know we talked in aprevious episode as well about
that Venn diagram.
I like to draw about thingsthat are important and things
you can control, and it makessense to focus on what you can
control.
There's lots of things outthere that might be stressing
(13:51):
you out that you can't control.
Don't let them stress you out.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
You can't control them.
Ryan Nelson (13:55):
Control the things you can control.
It'll make you feel empoweredand you can actually control a
lot more than you think.
So market movements are notsomething you can control, but
there is a lot of things you cancontrol your spending, your
savings rate, your rebalancing,your tax strategy, your asset
allocation, having a goal right.
If you do all of those thingsyou can control, you're going to
be a really, really good spot.
(14:15):
You're going to feel empowered,you don't feel helpless and
you're going to be in a really,really good spot.
The other thing I'd say is keepa long-term view.
So every downturn in modernhistory has been followed by a
recovery.
Every single one in modernhistory has been followed by a
recovery.
So, if you stay investedthroughout, you'll participate
in the downs, you'll participatein the ups, but it's not just a
(14:37):
downturn.
There's going to be a recoverythat follows it, right?
So keep a long-term approach.
All the downturns are justtemporary.
We don't know if it'll be a day, a week, a month, a year, two
years, right, we don't know,right.
But again, if you use historyas any indicator, again, every
(14:57):
market downturn in past modernday history has been followed by
a recovery.
Aaron Hoisington (15:01):
Yep.
Use that rhyming history quoteby Mark Twain there.
Like hey we haven't maybe seenthat specifically, but we've
seen something similar and, likeyou said, tends to come back.
The recovery will happen.
How long it takes Once againout of your control.
But as long as you have thatlong-term view and it's funny
for me to think about, and I'msure you see it with your
(15:22):
clients too is like I'm sure theway that you talk to me as a
34-year-old man and like how youtalk to somebody who's maybe 64
, like with these things, I'msure it has like a different
view of what the long-term andshort-term and stuff is.
So I mean, hopefully one dayI'll get to that point where I'm
like having that conversationabout like cool, like it's about
that time, aaron, kind of thing.
But it's just something I wasjust thinking of about.
(15:44):
I love talking long-termbecause in my mind I'm still
young, my body says differently.
But thinking about how thatconversation is going to change
over time is interesting, justin general to think about, for
sure.
Ryan Nelson (15:56):
Absolutely.
And then the other thing Iwould say that you can do during
a market return is reframevolatility as an opportunity.
I truly believe volatility isan opportunity, but a lot of
people see it as this negativething, and so it creates like
anxiety or angst for them, andI'm like gosh, you really don't
need to experience that anxietyor angst Cause this is actually
(16:18):
something that I think is a goodthing for you long-term.
That like valuable it should be, like making you like almost
happy in some ways.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
And you have this like unneeded angst, right?
Ryan Nelson (16:28):
So reframing volatility as a as an
opportunity.
So when downturn like downturnsare, when future gains are like
quote unquote on sale, right,everybody has probably heard
that, right, the market's onsale, right, um, but there's
some truth to that, like therereally is, um, you can also
there's.
It creates other opportunities.
So this would be one where youreally want to dive deeper in.
(16:48):
But maybe it's a good time todo Roth conversions while the
market's down.
Good time to do tax lossharvesting.
Good time to dollar costaverage into a market.
Good time to potentiallyrebalance a portfolio, right.
Those are all again, some more,maybe more technically advanced
strategies, but they'reopportunities nonetheless that
were created because of thevolatility that would not exist
necessarily, or not exist to thesame extent, without the
(17:11):
volatility.
So the volatility is creatingthis opportunity that we
otherwise wouldn't have.
That can ultimately increaseyour long-term expected returns
or your long-term gains.
So, yeah, if something canhappen that increases our
long-term gains, I see that as apositive, absolutely.
Aaron Hoisington (17:24):
Yeah, just that, that, that reframing
mentality of it, I think is bigabout like cool, how do I, how
do I take this as an opportunityversus like a um, a detractor,
if you will?
And and I think that, dependingon where you're at in your life
, obviously, like it depends,but like just being able to
switch that on, I'm sure, forlike we've it depends, but just
being able to switch that on I'msure, for We've heard that
(17:45):
saying, like you said, marketson sale.
Yeah, like cool, it's on saleif you do the right thing with
it, depending on what you'regoing to do.
You have to be specificallydoing maybe what works best in
that situation versus just likecool, I'm buying all the stocks
because everything's down Likeoh, maybe I don't know yeah.
That might not be a best idea,so, um, yeah, it's a, it's a
great.
You called out some of theother things, the roth
(18:07):
conversions.
We've covered those on previouspodcast topics too, so please
go back and, if you think you'dbe interested in that or
whatever, check that out.
Give a little, a little bit ofcontext on what that actually
means and how you can learn thatas well too yep, perfect, yeah.
Ryan Nelson (18:19):
So in summary, what I would say is, yeah, during
market turns it can feel likehard or scary and that fear is
like part of being human andcompletely natural and normal.
So you know, that's not a song,that's not a sign that you're
doing it wrong, right, like thatcan be, just be a normal part
of being human.
Um, but hopefully over time andwith further education and
(18:39):
stuff, you might be able toagain even get to a point, like
I said earlier, where what oncemade you fearful now doesn't
scare you at all and you see asan opportunity.
And again, I think you mostlyget there through education, uh
and experience and uh, exposure.
Um, so that's not unrealisticto think that again, what once
made you scared you could nowlike embrace as an opportunity.
The other thing I'd say is, ifyou're going to make a big
(19:01):
change, like if it's reallypanicking and you want to cash
out or like sell everything,you're scared talk to a trusted
person.
I think a trusted advisor wouldbe a good person.
My fear here is you don't wantto talk to somebody in the same
echo chamber as you If you andall your close coworkers all see
the same politically and allkind of reiterate and kind of
(19:23):
build each other up and kind ofcreate this again echo chamber
of panic.
Then if you go ask them aquestion, they're just going to
regurgitate and throw back atyou the same things you guys
have all been talking about,right, so that would not be a
good place to go.
Get good advice about a bigchange, right, but you might be
able to ask a parent.
You might be able to ask asibling.
(19:43):
You might be able to ask acoworker.
You might be able to ask a boss.
You might be able to ask achild.
You might be able to ask just agood friend.
You might be able to ask afinancial advisor, right, but
it's not a bad idea if you'reabout to make a huge financial
decision, like sell all thestocks you own.
Talk to a couple of people.
See what they say Maybe some ofthem will help kind of talk you
off that edge and keep you fromjumping off that roller coaster,
(20:05):
right?
And then I would say thinkabout your plan.
So your plan should be builtfor both bull and bear markets.
All of our clients' plans,they're built knowing those
statistics.
I recited at the beginning ofthe episode that we're going to
have multiple 20% downturns,multiple 15% downturns, multiple
10% downturns.
So build a plan, build it forboth bull and bear markets and
(20:29):
then when these things happen,we say perfect, this is part of
the plan.
We literally built this intothe plan.
Again, we didn't know the exactday this would happen, we
didn't know exactly to whatextent, we didn't know exactly
what would trigger it, but weknew there would be multiple of
these events and they're builtinto the plan.
So it's nothing to be scaredabout.
(20:49):
And the last thing I'll say isobviously sort of a mantra of
ours.
I sign off all my newslettersthis way.
We sign off every podcast thisway.
Right, it's, stay the course.
That's so incredibly valuable.
Stay the course, have your plan, follow it right.
But one thing I will note isstaying the course, I think to a
lot of people sounds like apassive decision?
Sure, it's not.
It does take discipline.
It's easy to get scared andspooked and maybe want to sell
(21:09):
everything.
I will say staying the course.
Sometimes you can almostreframe it as being this passive
, I'm doing nothing.
Decision to this active,proactive decision that betters
your financial situation.
And if something's happeningthat panics you, makes you want
to sell, the act of not sellingand staying the course is this
proactive decision.
That's like setting you up forlong-term success, right?
(21:31):
So just another way to kind ofthink about staying the course,
yeah, oh, absolutely.
Aaron Hoisington (21:35):
Just being able to hitting that word
reframing, like what staying thecourse means because you've all
(21:58):
probably heard the story of,like the tortoise and the hare
yeah, absolutely, it's likeabsolutely.
And in the end, like, yeah, itmakes things a lot less scary as
well too.
If you're just like cool, likeI know what I have to do every
month or every year or whateverit might be, and being able to
stay on that course, I think isjust incredible.
So, like I said, you sign offwith everything with that.
(22:21):
I think it's important forpeople to know what that
actually kind of means and howimportant it is and how it can
be a very, very beneficial thing.
Ryan Nelson (22:28):
Honestly in life in general, just to get there
Absolutely, since you loved itso much.
I'll just reiterate one moretime so recessions are normal,
they're part of the cycle, not afailure of the system.
Aaron Hoisington (22:38):
I love it.
I love it.
Hopefully, brandon, thatanswered your question in a
long-winded way.
You got some information fromthis and we'll be back on the
other side of this talk a littlebit of personal stuff, but I
really appreciate the question,man, and keep them coming, guys.
Everybody hang tight.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
And now to put the personal in personal finance.
Aaron Hoisington (23:04):
All right, Ryan, we are back on the
personal side of the physicalphysical.
I'd love to get your thoughtson this about what, I guess,
advice would you give tosomebody who is potentially
thinking about starting theirown podcast?
Ryan Nelson (23:17):
let's not get there , yeah.
I think, like I always, youknow, like when I talk about the
book.
I always describe myself as afinancial advisor who wrote a
book, not an author who doesfinancial advice, right.
So I kind of consider myselfthe same, like I'm a financial
advisor who does a podcast, nota podcaster who does finance.
Aaron Hoisington (23:37):
Right.
Ryan Nelson (23:37):
So there's probably something there like certainly,
joe Rogan knows a lot more thanwe do about a successful
podcast, right.
But you know, one stat I didfind, again bringing it back to
staying the course when themarket is down, which we just
talked about staying the course,having a plan, following that
plan.
A couple episodes ago we talkedabout starting a career in
(23:59):
financial advice and it's justgrinding through.
It's not always easy at thebeginning.
I think all of that justapplies, and so I found some
stats here.
Love stats.
Yeah, I don't know how accuratethese are, but I feel like this
is the type of I pulled thesestats off of Reddit.
Aaron Hoisington (24:14):
So full transparency.
This is the user was ahoizing1.
Ryan Nelson (24:22):
Yeah, so I would never encourage a client to go
to Reddit for financial advice.
So I probably shouldn't go toReddit for podcast advice.
But I guess I just don't careas much about my podcast advice.
So, according to this Reddituser, who hopefully got this
data from somewhere, absolutelyyeah, they said that there were
2 million podcasts out there and90% of podcasts don't get past
(24:44):
episode three.
So, again, there's a lot ofpodcasts.
Only 10% of them have more thanthree episodes.
So 1.8 million people quit inthe first three episodes.
Of the 200,000 that are left,90% quit after 20 episodes.
So that's another $180,000, orI mean, sorry, 180,000 podcasts
(25:06):
that are basically gone.
So now we've just narrowed itdown from 2 million to 20,000,
just getting past 20 episodes,which is crazy.
Um, and only 1% of podcastspublished 21 episodes.
Um, you know in in, therefore,21.
Yeah, so, um, so, pretty crazy.
So, you know, as long as youjust keep like grinding and like
(25:30):
it, you know it compact, thisis the same type of thing, it's
like anything else thatcompounds, right.
So I would just say you know,apply like grit and tenacity and
just keep going and, um, staythe course and, um, and I think
you can, you can like,accomplish a lot more.
I feel like I've used a lot ofquotes in this episode, but I
love this quote.
I feel like it's been modifieda bunch of different ways now,
(25:52):
but it's from Ray Kroc, the guywho founded McDonald's, and so
he says I was an overnightsuccess, all right, but 30 years
is a long, long night, right.
And again I've heard a lot ofpeople kind of modify that quote
.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
I was was a 30 year overnight success, or whatever.
Ryan Nelson (26:08):
And like it's so true, right.
Like none of these people justpublish their I shouldn't say
never, but like largely allthese successful podcasts, they
don't just publish a podcast andthen get a thousand or a
million or 2 million views onthe very first one, right?
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Nobody knows about it .
Ryan Nelson (26:23):
So you know, and if they do, if it's the people who
do that, they've built theirsuccess elsewhere somewhere.
They've built their successelsewhere somewhere.
They have a reputation thatthey're then just applying the
podcast, right.
So it's not even fair orrepresentative.
So that person who originallybuilt their initial reputation
would have had to build it likeone person at a time, basically
Right.
And so again, I think the sameis true, like you just have to
build it like anything else andstay the course and stay
(26:45):
disciplined and have a littlebit of grit, and it starts
compounding um, you know, afterjust time, Um.
So that's my two cents.
But curious, your thoughts.
I mean you.
You have more experience withpodcasting than me.
So what's your, what's youropinion?
Aaron Hoisington (26:57):
And a lot of it is exactly what you're saying
Like.
As far as I remember, when I,when we did our first few
episodes of this, I was like,okay, this is rough, like we're,
we're rough a little bit, like,let's just keep going, let's
see how this goes, let's do afew more, do a few more.
And we got to like episode 20or so and I was like, oh cool,
(27:18):
like I think we have a prettygood rhythm, sure, not only with
like how you so my biggest, youknow, I guess, advice or
whatever is organization.
Like you, you crushorganization.
Organization, that's somethingyou're very good at.
You introduced me to theproduct that we use now notion
to like, outline stuff, like soone find something that excites
you to do the podcast on becauselike, and something you can do
multiple episodes on becauseyeah, oh cool, like I like, I
(27:40):
like you know european footballor something like that.
It's like great, like how muchwill you, can you do before you
run out of this?
But with the financial industryit's so broad, it's so vast and
find something that really doesexcite you to do that.
I know that for myself.
I don't particularly get jazzedabout finances, but every time
(28:01):
I come home after recording anepisode with you I am fired up.
I think it's so great and Ihope that our listeners kind of
get that as well too.
So if you're passionate aboutsomething, you're willing to
dedicate the time to put into itand to get better and know
you're not going to be the bestat the start of it.
But you can get to, you canreach more people and you I
shameless plug for ourselves.
(28:22):
I see just the number oflisteners we get per week has
gone up dramatically and like Idon't know if we've done
specifically anything differentbesides, just stay the course
with it too, and maybe hopefullywe've gotten a little bit
better.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
I don't know.
Aaron Hoisington (28:36):
I can't really say that, but I think that it's
important to look back on.
You know, 75 episodes, cool,like where were we at number one
?
Where are we at now?
And just cool, we've alreadywe've made it into that like 1%
according to those statistics oflike the podcasts in the in the
world.
So pretty neat, pretty neatoverall.
So it really is.
I don't know if we gave toomuch advice there besides, like,
(28:57):
just really stay the course.
Stay the course If it'ssomething you're passionate
about, something you want to do.
You have all the resourcesthese days to do this Absolutely
and hopefully you findsomething that you enjoy, so get
after it.
But anything else, ryan, beforewe play us out here as always
(29:19):
stay the course.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Thank you for joining us for the Fiscal Physical
Podcast.
Until next time, happylistening and, as always, stay
the course.
If you have a question or topicsuggestions, please email us at
podcast at alchemywealthcom.
If you enjoyed today'sdiscussion, subscribe to the
podcast to ensure you never missan episode and consider leaving
(29:44):
us a rating and review on yourfavorite platform.
This helps other listeners likeyou find the show.
For more resources, you canvisit Alchemy Wealth
Management's website atwwwalchemywealthcom or find your
fiscal physical the book onAmazon.
We'd be remiss if we didn'tmention that personal finance is
just that personal.
(30:04):
Please don't take anything wesay as advice.
The preceding content is forinformational and entertainment
purposes only.
It's not an offer or asolicitation, nor should it be
construed or relied upon for tax, legal or investment advice.
It doesn't consider yourpersonal financial situation or
objectives and may not besuitable for you.
Welcome to the Fiscal Physical Podcast.
Join us each week as we sitdown with the founder of Alchemy
Wealth Management and author ofyour Fiscal Physical, Ryan
Nelson.
Tune in to gain valuableinsights and practical tips as
we simplify complex financialconcepts into digestible lessons
(00:22):
.
From budgeting to retirementplanning, this podcast is your
go-to resource for masteringfinancial literacy.
Aaron Hoisington (00:33):
Welcome everybody to this week's episode
of the Fiscal Physical Podcast.
Ryan Nelson is here with me, asalways, the founder of Alchemy
Wealth Management, one of mygood buddies, and it's good to
be here.
Man, glad we got this longevityand let's go ahead and jump in,
because one of the things wewouldn't be doing this podcast
if we didn't have listeners, andfor a while we didn't have many
(00:56):
listeners and now we have a fewlisteners.
So thank you so much toeverybody there.
But we got a listener questionhere and I want to plug first
shamelessly.
Please send us these questions.
We love them.
Email us, podcast atalchemywealthcom, text us, call
us.
Whatever it might be.
We'd love to hear from you andthis one comes.
Can one navigate market crashesand economic recessions?
(01:19):
For context, this is related touncertainty associated with the
move so far in 2025.
But I'm pretty sure you canprobably apply this to, honestly
, any year of the financialsystem.
(01:40):
So, ryan, I'm going to go aheadand let you kind of take this
here about, like how would youbest answer Brandon's question?
What would you provide?
And just to everybody out there, yeah.
Ryan Nelson (02:01):
So I think any's a reasonable emotion to have and I
think that, yeah, I thinkthat's completely fine.
It's okay to like experiencesomething or kind of have some
unknowns and just acknowledgethat it.
Yeah, this feels a little bituncomfortable or it's a little
bit scary.
So I think it's completelyreasonable to feel that way and
to acknowledge that feeling.
At the same time, I think wealso want to apply some logic to
(02:24):
it and make sure that thoseinitial emotions we have don't
drive us to make a decision wewould regret in future years.
So a couple of things I wouldsay.
Like you said, you know sothere's this really common
phrase in the finance industry.
It says like this time isdifferent.
(02:44):
So it's like the market goesdown, the financial advisor says
, oh, it's going to come back up, just stay the course.
And then they say, but thistime is different.
And so they say those are themost dangerous words in
investing, or the most expensivewords in investing.
There's lots of differentquotes about it, but I think
that every year has something init that is unprecedented, right
(03:08):
, and whether that's thepandemic, some inflation, a
potential war, tech bubbles,interest rate hikes, right,
there's always something goingon, and I think it's fair for us
to acknowledge that.
Yes, maybe this exact specificevent has not happened before.
Right to acknowledge that.
Like yes, maybe this exactspecific event has not happened
before.
Right, like there was, like,all this drastic inflation.
(03:31):
It's like, yeah, we haven'tseen this for a hundred years
since the tulip bubble, or, youknow, there's a pandemic.
It's like, well, we haven'tseen this in a hundred years
since the last one.
Right, so it is, you know.
I think it's reasonable to seethese things and say, yeah, it
is different.
Maybe this exact situation hasnever come up before, right, but
I love that Mark Twain quotehistory doesn't repeat itself,
but it does rhyme, but it oftenrhymes, and so the same thing is
(03:52):
true, right, yeah, when we saythat stay the course, and that
we've seen market volatility inthe past, we don't mean that
we've seen every exact possiblescenario of all mankind in the
past, right, what we'rereferring to is, yes, markets
behave in a certain way andthere may be some impetus that
(04:13):
causes some reaction in themarkets, and we've seen that
reaction in the markets before,right, and so the impetus itself
could be different.
Again, let's not get too caughtup in that.
But so, again, history doesn'trepeat itself, but it often
rhymes.
And so, again, we've seen thisstuff in the past.
Like, let's just put somecontext to this.
So the market drops 5% or more.
(04:35):
Let's look at averages over thelast about 70 years worth of
data.
So these are averages in themarket over the last about 70
years.
The market drops 5% or moreabout once every year.
So what that means is, yeah,every single year.
We should expect some point intime, like, if we're investing,
we should expect probably somepoint in time where market's
down 5% throughout that year.
That'd be just a normal,typical year, nothing out of the
(04:58):
ordinary.
So if we're looking at about 70years worth of data, it's
happened about 70 times If themarket's dropped 10% or more,
about every 30 months.
So that's about every two and ahalf years, so almost every
other year.
Right, we're witnessing themarket drop 10% or more.
So, again, if we're looking atlike 70 years worth of data,
(05:18):
we're talking about thishappening like 30 times, sure,
yeah.
So again, it's not uncommon forthe market to drop 10% or more.
Yes, each of those times.
If it dropped 30 times, yes,each of those 30 times were
slightly different, but again,it all rhymes.
But so a 10% drop or more isn'tnecessarily uncommon or
something we didn't foreseecoming.
(05:39):
The market drops 15% or moreabout every five years.
So again, if we're looking at70 years worth of data, it's
like, hey, we will have seenthis thing happen about 14 times
, right?
So about every five years,market will drop 15% or more.
And the market will drop 20% ormore about every six years.
So again, over a 70-year timeperiod, you're going to see 12
or something of these instancesof the market dropping 20% or
(06:02):
more.
So again, I say all that toalmost normalize the risk and
market declines, right, it's notsomething that none of us see
coming.
If we sort of study history, soto speak, we know that there's
going to be 5% declines, there's10% declines, even 20% declines
aren't uncommon.
There's been lots of them inthe past, right, and we expect
(06:23):
more of them in the future.
Just quite frankly.
Aaron Hoisington (06:26):
Yeah, and I just want to pause there, just
to really, I think that you'rerattling off these figures and
they're awesome.
It really paints the context oflike, hey, this time's
different.
You hear that on the news allthe time.
You're just like, whether it befinancial or whatever it is,
it's like hey, we've seen thiskind of before, but this time's
different, yeah for sure.
Really, to just what you justsaid, over the last seven years,
(06:48):
oh, this has happened 14 times,or this has happened 24 times
over this past time.
So, like the idea of, like youknow everything not everything's
doom and gloom or whatever butto really put someone's mind at
ease, of like, hey, you know, a5% drop, we're probably due for
something like that so just tobe able to think about, hey, the
sky's not falling when thathappens.
(07:09):
It's just part of the cyclical,almost nature of it
specifically.
So I think that that's reallyimportant.
I'm sure you talked to yourclients about that I know you
talked to me about that but Iwant everybody to know that it
really hammer home that it's notuncommon for these things to
happen for sure, exactly, and soI would say that let's talk a
little bit about what happensduring a quote-unquote crash.
Ryan Nelson (07:31):
Sure, and so asset prices start to decline.
That creates fear and sometimespanic for some people, so that
accelerates the drop.
If somebody gets a littlescared and they sell more, that
makes it drop a little bit more.
Then news headlines intensifythat negative sentiment.
It's kind of this snowballeffect that starts building on
itself right and then soinvestors will sell more right,
(07:52):
and oftentimes you're selling atthe worst time you don't want
to sell when it's down right.
And then there's maybe someeconomic slowdowns that lead to
potential job losses or reducedspending and slower growth, and
so it's just kind of thiscompounding thing that builds on
itself, and so, again goingback to the beginning, it's fair
for that to be scary.
Right, it doesn't mean we wantto make a rash decision with our
(08:13):
finances, but it's fair to lookat that and say, man, this is a
little bit uncomfortable.
It would also, though, be fairto look at it and say this is
kind of part of the system.
I understand this happens, andmaybe it doesn't even fear you.
The more you sort of empoweryourself with knowledge and
start to familiarize yourselfwith what happens, you might
find yourself even in a position, though, where what once scared
you now doesn't even bother you.
(08:35):
You just understand it as partof the process, and so I always
like to say in this question Idon't know that it was
specifically towards recessions,and there's sort of a
definition of recessions, butnot worrying about that so much
what I would say is recessionsare normal, so they're a part of
the cycle, not a failure of thesystem.
So, again, as we're investing,this is a part of this
investment cycle, not a failureof the system.
(08:57):
I think a lot of times.
We think of this as oh my God,there's a recession, the system
must be failing, right?
It's like no, that's part ofthe cyclical cycle of investing.
We expect this to happenAnytime it happens.
That's completely like we maynot have anticipated exactly why
or exactly when, but we doanticipate there will be another
(09:17):
one.
That's part of the naturalcycle of investing.
It's not a failure of thesystem if that makes sense.
Yeah, oh it absolutely does.
Aaron Hoisington (09:25):
I'm guessing you probably didn't make up that
quote.
That's probably a pretty commonone.
The recessions are normal.
They're part of the cycle, nota failure of the system.
Ryan Nelson (09:32):
No, I've never heard that quote before.
Oh okay, yeah, yeah.
Aaron Hoisington (09:35):
Quote it quick .
Ryan Nelson (09:36):
Should I publish that?
Yeah, I was going to say shouldwe copyright that?
Can you copyright that?
Yeah, that's great.
Yeah, I'm sure.
Aaron Hoisington (09:42):
But yeah, that's a really good, great way
to paint it.
For sure, it's part of thecycle, like it's.
Yeah, the panic piece of it isI think about it like this just
a little personal thing In 2020,when COVID happened and
everybody was getting laid offand sent home and all these
different things.
At that point, it's just funny.
It's like, what do you do atthat time?
(10:03):
Those situations and my thing,my fiancé, at the time we
started working with you at thatpoint, that's when we were like
, hey, you know what Like weneed to.
we don't know what's going tohappen here, but we're guessing
it's probably everything's goingto probably be okay.
But let's start planning forthis, like what happens if this
step and I don't know if it's aright, wrong time you never
(10:28):
really know what that, thosekind of things but um, I think
it's just important to like, hey, how do you, how do you now
view these certain opportunity,more of opportunities, versus
like really negative things Isuppose.
So, um yeah, just a littlepersonal anecdote there, but I
love it yeah, um, yeah, so, umnow.
Ryan Nelson (10:40):
So we kind of talked about, like, what happens
during a market crash.
Now let's talk about how youcould navigate it wisely.
So the best thing have a planbefore it hits.
Now, if it's already, if you'rein the middle of this, you
can't go retroactive back andcreate a plan right, but like
you know, I use this quote allthe time.
This one I can't attribute tome.
I don't know who to attributeit to, but like the best time to
(11:00):
plant a tree is 20 years ago.
The second best time to plant atree is today, right.
And so, similarly, I'm tellingyou, create a plan.
If you didn't already create aplan in the past, create it now,
right.
And so you should come up witha plan for your asset allocation
, what your time horizon is,what your risk tolerance is.
You should have an investmentplan and then, if you're
(11:21):
properly invested, the crashisn't going to change your
strategy.
It should be affirming yourstrategy.
And so, yeah, if there's amarket crash, perfect.
If we have a plan ahead of time, we're following that plan.
We already know our assetallocation, we know our time
horizon, we know our risktolerance and we're able to stay
the course.
And it's pretty funny.
I've had lots of conversationsover the last number of weeks
(11:43):
with clients, and a reoccurringtheme is they thought their
portfolio would be down morethan it is.
But we are appropriatelyinvested, with the right time
horizon, the right risktolerance, and they're always
shocked at how well theiraccount has performed relative
to their perception of whatwould have happened.
And again, that's just aproduct of having a plan,
(12:05):
knowing what we're workingtowards, evaluating a proper
risk tolerance and risk capacityand then applying this.
And again, they're not takingunneeded amounts of risk.
What I hear all the time issomebody will just be like
invested in the S&P 500.
They don't have a plan, they'renot taking the right amount of
risk.
They just said oh, I heard thatinvesting in the S&P 500 is a
cheap way to invest.
It's like, yeah, it is a cheapway.
(12:26):
Is that a good plan?
What's your plan, what's yourgoal, and so again, these are
the times where it really sortof brings some of this stuff to
light and you can start toactually see like, oh okay, this
is the value of a plan, this isthe value of taking the right
of risk, and again it just kindof sheds some light on that.
The other thing I'd say soagain how to navigate this
(12:46):
wisely would be do not try totime the market.
So timing the market again, wedid a podcast on this, but I
love the quote.
It's time in the market, nottiming of the market.
So the key is to be investedfor a long time, not trying to
get in at the bottom and sell atthe top.
Nobody has that crystal ball.
Nobody can accurately predictit.
(13:06):
You'd have to theoreticallypredict it twice.
You'd have to know when thebottom is and the top is.
It's hard enough to predict itonce.
You're not going to predict ittwice.
It's a fool's errand.
Oftentimes the biggest gainscome after the biggest losses.
So you'll see a lot of times,after some of those really
really bad days in the market,what happens the next day or in
the next couple of days.
Oftentimes there's a reallyreally good day, right.
(13:31):
So if you're out of the market,you're going to miss those sort
of like bounce back days, asthey call them.
The other thing I'd say isfocus on what you can control.
So I know we talked in aprevious episode as well about
that Venn diagram.
I like to draw about thingsthat are important and things
you can control, and it makessense to focus on what you can
control.
There's lots of things outthere that might be stressing
(13:51):
you out that you can't control.
Don't let them stress you out.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
You can't control them.
Ryan Nelson (13:55):
Control the things you can control.
It'll make you feel empoweredand you can actually control a
lot more than you think.
So market movements are notsomething you can control, but
there is a lot of things you cancontrol your spending, your
savings rate, your rebalancing,your tax strategy, your asset
allocation, having a goal right.
If you do all of those thingsyou can control, you're going to
be a really, really good spot.
(14:15):
You're going to feel empowered,you don't feel helpless and
you're going to be in a really,really good spot.
The other thing I'd say is keepa long-term view.
So every downturn in modernhistory has been followed by a
recovery.
Every single one in modernhistory has been followed by a
recovery.
So, if you stay investedthroughout, you'll participate
in the downs, you'll participatein the ups, but it's not just a
(14:37):
downturn.
There's going to be a recoverythat follows it, right?
So keep a long-term approach.
All the downturns are justtemporary.
We don't know if it'll be a day, a week, a month, a year, two
years, right, we don't know,right.
But again, if you use historyas any indicator, again, every
(14:57):
market downturn in past modernday history has been followed by
a recovery.
Aaron Hoisington (15:01):
Yep.
Use that rhyming history quoteby Mark Twain there.
Like hey we haven't maybe seenthat specifically, but we've
seen something similar and, likeyou said, tends to come back.
The recovery will happen.
How long it takes Once againout of your control.
But as long as you have thatlong-term view and it's funny
for me to think about, and I'msure you see it with your
(15:22):
clients too is like I'm sure theway that you talk to me as a
34-year-old man and like how youtalk to somebody who's maybe 64
, like with these things, I'msure it has like a different
view of what the long-term andshort-term and stuff is.
So I mean, hopefully one dayI'll get to that point where I'm
like having that conversationabout like cool, like it's about
that time, aaron, kind of thing.
But it's just something I wasjust thinking of about.
(15:44):
I love talking long-termbecause in my mind I'm still
young, my body says differently.
But thinking about how thatconversation is going to change
over time is interesting, justin general to think about, for
sure.
Ryan Nelson (15:56):
Absolutely.
And then the other thing Iwould say that you can do during
a market return is reframevolatility as an opportunity.
I truly believe volatility isan opportunity, but a lot of
people see it as this negativething, and so it creates like
anxiety or angst for them, andI'm like gosh, you really don't
need to experience that anxietyor angst Cause this is actually
(16:18):
something that I think is a goodthing for you long-term.
That like valuable it should be, like making you like almost
happy in some ways.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
And you have this like unneeded angst, right?
Ryan Nelson (16:28):
So reframing volatility as a as an
opportunity.
So when downturn like downturnsare, when future gains are like
quote unquote on sale, right,everybody has probably heard
that, right, the market's onsale, right, um, but there's
some truth to that, like therereally is, um, you can also
there's.
It creates other opportunities.
So this would be one where youreally want to dive deeper in.
(16:48):
But maybe it's a good time todo Roth conversions while the
market's down.
Good time to do tax lossharvesting.
Good time to dollar costaverage into a market.
Good time to potentiallyrebalance a portfolio, right.
Those are all again, some more,maybe more technically advanced
strategies, but they'reopportunities nonetheless that
were created because of thevolatility that would not exist
necessarily, or not exist to thesame extent, without the
(17:11):
volatility.
So the volatility is creatingthis opportunity that we
otherwise wouldn't have.
That can ultimately increaseyour long-term expected returns
or your long-term gains.
So, yeah, if something canhappen that increases our
long-term gains, I see that as apositive, absolutely.
Aaron Hoisington (17:24):
Yeah, just that, that, that reframing
mentality of it, I think is bigabout like cool, how do I, how
do I take this as an opportunityversus like a um, a detractor,
if you will?
And and I think that, dependingon where you're at in your life
, obviously, like it depends,but like just being able to
switch that on, I'm sure, forlike we've it depends, but just
being able to switch that on I'msure, for We've heard that
(17:45):
saying, like you said, marketson sale.
Yeah, like cool, it's on saleif you do the right thing with
it, depending on what you'regoing to do.
You have to be specificallydoing maybe what works best in
that situation versus just likecool, I'm buying all the stocks
because everything's down Likeoh, maybe I don't know yeah.
That might not be a best idea,so, um, yeah, it's a, it's a
great.
You called out some of theother things, the roth
(18:07):
conversions.
We've covered those on previouspodcast topics too, so please
go back and, if you think you'dbe interested in that or
whatever, check that out.
Give a little, a little bit ofcontext on what that actually
means and how you can learn thatas well too yep, perfect, yeah.
Ryan Nelson (18:19):
So in summary, what I would say is, yeah, during
market turns it can feel likehard or scary and that fear is
like part of being human andcompletely natural and normal.
So you know, that's not a song,that's not a sign that you're
doing it wrong, right, like thatcan be, just be a normal part
of being human.
Um, but hopefully over time andwith further education and
(18:39):
stuff, you might be able toagain even get to a point, like
I said earlier, where what oncemade you fearful now doesn't
scare you at all and you see asan opportunity.
And again, I think you mostlyget there through education, uh
and experience and uh, exposure.
Um, so that's not unrealisticto think that again, what once
made you scared you could nowlike embrace as an opportunity.
The other thing I'd say is, ifyou're going to make a big
(19:01):
change, like if it's reallypanicking and you want to cash
out or like sell everything,you're scared talk to a trusted
person.
I think a trusted advisor wouldbe a good person.
My fear here is you don't wantto talk to somebody in the same
echo chamber as you If you andall your close coworkers all see
the same politically and allkind of reiterate and kind of
(19:23):
build each other up and kind ofcreate this again echo chamber
of panic.
Then if you go ask them aquestion, they're just going to
regurgitate and throw back atyou the same things you guys
have all been talking about,right, so that would not be a
good place to go.
Get good advice about a bigchange, right, but you might be
able to ask a parent.
You might be able to ask asibling.
(19:43):
You might be able to ask acoworker.
You might be able to ask a boss.
You might be able to ask achild.
You might be able to ask just agood friend.
You might be able to ask afinancial advisor, right, but
it's not a bad idea if you'reabout to make a huge financial
decision, like sell all thestocks you own.
Talk to a couple of people.
See what they say Maybe some ofthem will help kind of talk you
off that edge and keep you fromjumping off that roller coaster,
(20:05):
right?
And then I would say thinkabout your plan.
So your plan should be builtfor both bull and bear markets.
All of our clients' plans,they're built knowing those
statistics.
I recited at the beginning ofthe episode that we're going to
have multiple 20% downturns,multiple 15% downturns, multiple
10% downturns.
So build a plan, build it forboth bull and bear markets and
(20:29):
then when these things happen,we say perfect, this is part of
the plan.
We literally built this intothe plan.
Again, we didn't know the exactday this would happen, we
didn't know exactly to whatextent, we didn't know exactly
what would trigger it, but weknew there would be multiple of
these events and they're builtinto the plan.
So it's nothing to be scaredabout.
(20:49):
And the last thing I'll say isobviously sort of a mantra of
ours.
I sign off all my newslettersthis way.
We sign off every podcast thisway.
Right, it's, stay the course.
That's so incredibly valuable.
Stay the course, have your plan, follow it right.
But one thing I will note isstaying the course, I think to a
lot of people sounds like apassive decision?
Sure, it's not.
It does take discipline.
It's easy to get scared andspooked and maybe want to sell
(21:09):
everything.
I will say staying the course.
Sometimes you can almostreframe it as being this passive
, I'm doing nothing.
Decision to this active,proactive decision that betters
your financial situation.
And if something's happeningthat panics you, makes you want
to sell, the act of not sellingand staying the course is this
proactive decision.
That's like setting you up forlong-term success, right?
(21:31):
So just another way to kind ofthink about staying the course,
yeah, oh, absolutely.
Aaron Hoisington (21:35):
Just being able to hitting that word
reframing, like what staying thecourse means because you've all
(21:58):
probably heard the story of,like the tortoise and the hare
yeah, absolutely, it's likeabsolutely.
And in the end, like, yeah, itmakes things a lot less scary as
well too.
If you're just like cool, likeI know what I have to do every
month or every year or whateverit might be, and being able to
stay on that course, I think isjust incredible.
So, like I said, you sign offwith everything with that.
(22:21):
I think it's important forpeople to know what that
actually kind of means and howimportant it is and how it can
be a very, very beneficial thing.
Ryan Nelson (22:28):
Honestly in life in general, just to get there
Absolutely, since you loved itso much.
I'll just reiterate one moretime so recessions are normal,
they're part of the cycle, not afailure of the system.
Aaron Hoisington (22:38):
I love it.
I love it.
Hopefully, brandon, thatanswered your question in a
long-winded way.
You got some information fromthis and we'll be back on the
other side of this talk a littlebit of personal stuff, but I
really appreciate the question,man, and keep them coming, guys.
Everybody hang tight.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
And now to put the personal in personal finance.
Aaron Hoisington (23:04):
All right, Ryan, we are back on the
personal side of the physicalphysical.
I'd love to get your thoughtson this about what, I guess,
advice would you give tosomebody who is potentially
thinking about starting theirown podcast?
Ryan Nelson (23:17):
let's not get there , yeah.
I think, like I always, youknow, like when I talk about the
book.
I always describe myself as afinancial advisor who wrote a
book, not an author who doesfinancial advice, right.
So I kind of consider myselfthe same, like I'm a financial
advisor who does a podcast, nota podcaster who does finance.
Aaron Hoisington (23:37):
Right.
Ryan Nelson (23:37):
So there's probably something there like certainly,
joe Rogan knows a lot more thanwe do about a successful
podcast, right.
But you know, one stat I didfind, again bringing it back to
staying the course when themarket is down, which we just
talked about staying the course,having a plan, following that
plan.
A couple episodes ago we talkedabout starting a career in
(23:59):
financial advice and it's justgrinding through.
It's not always easy at thebeginning.
I think all of that justapplies, and so I found some
stats here.
Love stats.
Yeah, I don't know how accuratethese are, but I feel like this
is the type of I pulled thesestats off of Reddit.
Aaron Hoisington (24:14):
So full transparency.
This is the user was ahoizing1.
Ryan Nelson (24:22):
Yeah, so I would never encourage a client to go
to Reddit for financial advice.
So I probably shouldn't go toReddit for podcast advice.
But I guess I just don't careas much about my podcast advice.
So, according to this Reddituser, who hopefully got this
data from somewhere, absolutelyyeah, they said that there were
2 million podcasts out there and90% of podcasts don't get past
(24:44):
episode three.
So, again, there's a lot ofpodcasts.
Only 10% of them have more thanthree episodes.
So 1.8 million people quit inthe first three episodes.
Of the 200,000 that are left,90% quit after 20 episodes.
So that's another $180,000, orI mean, sorry, 180,000 podcasts
(25:06):
that are basically gone.
So now we've just narrowed itdown from 2 million to 20,000,
just getting past 20 episodes,which is crazy.
Um, and only 1% of podcastspublished 21 episodes.
Um, you know in in, therefore,21.
Yeah, so, um, so, pretty crazy.
So, you know, as long as youjust keep like grinding and like
(25:30):
it, you know it compact, thisis the same type of thing, it's
like anything else thatcompounds, right.
So I would just say you know,apply like grit and tenacity and
just keep going and, um, staythe course and, um, and I think
you can, you can like,accomplish a lot more.
I feel like I've used a lot ofquotes in this episode, but I
love this quote.
I feel like it's been modifieda bunch of different ways now,
(25:52):
but it's from Ray Kroc, the guywho founded McDonald's, and so
he says I was an overnightsuccess, all right, but 30 years
is a long, long night, right.
And again I've heard a lot ofpeople kind of modify that quote
.
Speaker 1 (26:06):
I was was a 30 year overnight success, or whatever.
Ryan Nelson (26:08):
And like it's so true, right.
Like none of these people justpublish their I shouldn't say
never, but like largely allthese successful podcasts, they
don't just publish a podcast andthen get a thousand or a
million or 2 million views onthe very first one, right?
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Nobody knows about it .
Ryan Nelson (26:23):
So you know, and if they do, if it's the people who
do that, they've built theirsuccess elsewhere somewhere.
They've built their successelsewhere somewhere.
They have a reputation thatthey're then just applying the
podcast, right.
So it's not even fair orrepresentative.
So that person who originallybuilt their initial reputation
would have had to build it likeone person at a time, basically
Right.
And so again, I think the sameis true, like you just have to
build it like anything else andstay the course and stay
(26:45):
disciplined and have a littlebit of grit, and it starts
compounding um, you know, afterjust time, Um.
So that's my two cents.
But curious, your thoughts.
I mean you.
You have more experience withpodcasting than me.
So what's your, what's youropinion?
Aaron Hoisington (26:57):
And a lot of it is exactly what you're saying
Like.
As far as I remember, when I,when we did our first few
episodes of this, I was like,okay, this is rough, like we're,
we're rough a little bit, like,let's just keep going, let's
see how this goes, let's do afew more, do a few more.
And we got to like episode 20or so and I was like, oh cool,
(27:18):
like I think we have a prettygood rhythm, sure, not only with
like how you so my biggest, youknow, I guess, advice or
whatever is organization.
Like you, you crushorganization.
Organization, that's somethingyou're very good at.
You introduced me to theproduct that we use now notion
to like, outline stuff, like soone find something that excites
you to do the podcast on becauselike, and something you can do
multiple episodes on becauseyeah, oh cool, like I like, I
(27:40):
like you know european footballor something like that.
It's like great, like how muchwill you, can you do before you
run out of this?
But with the financial industryit's so broad, it's so vast and
find something that really doesexcite you to do that.
I know that for myself.
I don't particularly get jazzedabout finances, but every time
(28:01):
I come home after recording anepisode with you I am fired up.
I think it's so great and Ihope that our listeners kind of
get that as well too.
So if you're passionate aboutsomething, you're willing to
dedicate the time to put into itand to get better and know
you're not going to be the bestat the start of it.
But you can get to, you canreach more people and you I
shameless plug for ourselves.
(28:22):
I see just the number oflisteners we get per week has
gone up dramatically and like Idon't know if we've done
specifically anything differentbesides, just stay the course
with it too, and maybe hopefullywe've gotten a little bit
better.
Speaker 1 (28:35):
I don't know.
Aaron Hoisington (28:36):
I can't really say that, but I think that it's
important to look back on.
You know, 75 episodes, cool,like where were we at number one
?
Where are we at now?
And just cool, we've alreadywe've made it into that like 1%
according to those statistics oflike the podcasts in the in the
world.
So pretty neat, pretty neatoverall.
So it really is.
I don't know if we gave toomuch advice there besides, like,
(28:57):
just really stay the course.
Stay the course If it'ssomething you're passionate
about, something you want to do.
You have all the resourcesthese days to do this Absolutely
and hopefully you findsomething that you enjoy, so get
after it.
But anything else, ryan, beforewe play us out here as always
(29:19):
stay the course.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Thank you for joining us for the Fiscal Physical
Podcast.
Until next time, happylistening and, as always, stay
the course.
If you have a question or topicsuggestions, please email us at
podcast at alchemywealthcom.
If you enjoyed today'sdiscussion, subscribe to the
podcast to ensure you never missan episode and consider leaving
(29:44):
us a rating and review on yourfavorite platform.
This helps other listeners likeyou find the show.
For more resources, you canvisit Alchemy Wealth
Management's website atwwwalchemywealthcom or find your
fiscal physical the book onAmazon.
We'd be remiss if we didn'tmention that personal finance is
just that personal.
(30:04):
Please don't take anything wesay as advice.
The preceding content is forinformational and entertainment
purposes only.
It's not an offer or asolicitation, nor should it be
construed or relied upon for tax, legal or investment advice.
It doesn't consider yourpersonal financial situation or
objectives and may not besuitable for you.
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