Ep. #63: Tariff Talk: Cargado’s Matt Silver, Caspian’s Justin Sherlock & Gaia Dynamics’ Emil Stefanutti on Navigating Tariff Volatility

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (01:16):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:32):
Welcome back to another episode of Freight Pod.
I'm your host, andrew Silver.
We've got a panel today, notjust one special guest, two
special guests and my brotherJust kidding Three special
guests.
I am joined today.

(02:08):
Thank you, sherlock.
Ceo of Caspian.
These are three companies whoare very much impacted by the
word of the month tariffs.
So we will be talking tariffs.
We're going to spend a littlebit of time as we get started
just getting to know certainlyEmil and Justin.
For those who have not listenedyet, check out my brother's
full episode.
There's plenty in there on whathe's building with Cargado.
We'll get a quick refresher forany audience members who

(02:29):
haven't heard that episode.
But we'll spend a little bit oftime starting with Emil and then
Justin on their businesses andhow they kind of got into the
space, and then we'll move intoa panel-style interview
conversation around everythingthat's going on what the impact
of these tariffs are tocompanies like Gaia Dynamics and
Caspian and Cargato who areeffectively working with

(02:53):
shippers, carriers, brokers thatare navigating.
The impact of the tariffs andthen just kind of anything
related to that is kind of thegoal today.
So, emil, let's start with you.
If you don't mind, give us kindof a quick background of kind
of who you are, how you got intothis space and what you're
building with Gaia.

Speaker 3 (03:14):
Yeah, absolutely, andrew, and thanks for having me
.
I come from many years in thelegal tech space and compliance
technology space, and last yearworking with our co-founder,
andrew Ng, who is one of the youknow top names in AI these days

(03:35):
.
You know we decided to give it ago and go after the
cross-border regulationcompliance space, which
essentially means everythingthat happens for people to be
able to import and exportproducts from one place to
another.
Anytime you do that, there is abunch of rules that you have to

(03:58):
follow and things you need tocomply with.
So the question that we areusing AI to answer, which is a
simple question with a verycomplex answer, is if I have
this product made of thesematerials or components or
ingredients in this country oforigin and I need to send it to
this other country ofdestination, what do I need to

(04:20):
know?
And that's going to be acombination of defining what the
product is, with classificationand you know what are the
tariffs, of course, that you'regoing to have to pay, and then
what regulations are applicableto it in the country of
destination, and we'll talk moreabout that, but that's kind of
what we're building at, guy, isa very simple way for people to

(04:41):
answer a very complex question.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
So I was going to ask that Is that challenging today?
Is it not as simple as, like, Ijust go online and I search.
Okay, I'm buying somethingthat's being made in Vietnam and
I need it brought to me in theStates.
I click a few buttons and Iknow what I'm doing.
It's not that easy.

Speaker 3 (04:58):
I mean, I'll give you some of the stats right.
There are about 56 million cargoshipments coming in and out of
the US every year and, accordingto the World Bank, it takes
about 10 hours per shipment todeal with regulation compliance
stuff.
That is anywhere from figuringout what paperwork do I need,
what's my classification, whatare the duties that I need to

(05:21):
pay, and then actually preparingall those materials, getting
them validated and submittingthem to CBP in the case of
bringing stuff into the US.
So if you assume that theblended hourly rate of full-time
employees and brokers andlawyers and professionals

(05:41):
working on this stuff issomewhere around $187 in the US,
times 10 hours, times 56million cargo shipments per year
just in the US, that's a hugeamount of money and a huge
amount of waste.
And you will think that peopleget it right because they're
spending so much time and moneydoing it.
But even according to CBP, 30%of the time, even just

(06:04):
classification stuff, they getit wrong, right.
So you know, one of the reasonswhy this is tough is because
these regulations change all thetime.
So just in the last five years,there's been close to 7,000
changes to global regulations,right, and that's about 120 per
month, and this is before evenTrump became president, right?

(06:26):
So that has probablyaccelerated quite a bit in the
last few weeks, and that's whatmakes it really, really tough.

Speaker 1 (06:33):
What drives so many changes?
Who?
And is it just country leadersacross the world deciding they
want to make more money off ofan opportunity, or how does
what's kind of driving all that?

Speaker 3 (06:49):
um, I mean, there are very.
There are different reasons, uh, from good news and bad news, I
guess you know so anygeopolitical kind of situations,
from free trade agreements totrade wars, to you know things
more more complex, things likeanti dumping regulations and
countervailing duties and youknow a bunch of other things.

(07:12):
Like, in the US alone, thereare a bunch of agencies, right,
fda, and you know USDA, and theEPA, and you know.
So all of those are kind ofevolving as we go, right?
So if you just look at the HTS,which is the Harmonized Storage
System in the US, if you lookat it today, we have had 10

(07:39):
updates in, just, you know, thelast three months, right, and
that's a huge amount of updates,right.
Obviously, if you read the news,you know why there's so many
changes.
But you know it's a complexworld, right, and some of these
rules have been designed forproducts that didn't exist.

(07:59):
You know when these rules wereput in place, right?
So we are continuouslyinventing new things and adding
new products and those thingshave to kind of be absorbed by
the system and things will justupdate, right.
So, you know, I don't thinkthere's a simple answer to your
question, but yes, there are alot of moving parts that
actually make things change, andregulations have to sort of

(08:21):
keep up with that.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
And how does your team?
You know you mentioned yourco-founder being a kind of
leader in the AI space.
I'm curious how are youleveraging AI to kind of, I
guess, assist businesses innavigating these trade
compliance issues?

Speaker 3 (08:43):
Yeah, I mean in the simplest of terms, and obviously
there's a lot more complexitythan this, but when you look at
compliance, it really comes downto a lot of regulations, right,
and when you say, what do Ineed to know?
If I'm bringing, let's say, apair of shoes manufacturer in
China into the US, then you'regoing to see a bunch of

(09:05):
different rules that have beenwritten.
So there's a lot of writtencontent, right, typically in the
form of laws, and you know evenfederal register updates, right
, and if you read any of thosethings and for a human being,
keeping up with all of that andremembering all of that is very

(09:26):
tricky.
So you know, on average today,based on the conversations we've
had and some of the tests we'vedone, a good broker or a human
expert would take probably halfan hour uh per product today to
even classify it right.
And classifying means that youassign a code to it and there is

(09:47):
a kind of a universal codingsystem that most countries use
and there are about anywherebetween 10,000 and 15,000
possible codes for any productout there and it's very hard,
right, like a bicycle is not abicycle, it's some sort of
transportation vehicle that isnot a train or it's not a boat,
that is not a bicycle, it's somesort of transportation vehicle
that is not a train, or it's nota boat, that is not a plane, or

(10:07):
it's not this or that.
So it becomes really, reallyhard.
So AI, especially modern AI,generative AI, has this great
capability of reading a lot ofcontent and being able to kind
of make quick decisions andrecommendations based on those
huge amounts of content veryquickly, right?
So if I had to answer thequestion you know what is the

(10:30):
classification for, you knowthis hub, you know I would have
to go into the web and look itup and figure out what it is
made of.
And you know, and, and you knowwhether it's a bigger or
smaller or heavier or lighter,that these are that, and then go
into an HDS system and figureout okay, is this, is it?

(10:52):
You know this, or is it that?
And isn't?
You know it's, it's, it's a lotof.
It's like a decision tree kindof process, and that would take
me potentially half an hour tofigure it out, whereas Gaia,
right now, can do the same workin five to eight seconds.

Speaker 4 (11:08):
So that's the big, the big improvement, I think, in
terms of processing that thathe can do right now and just to
clarify, like with the cupexample, a plastic cup versus an
aluminum cup versus a glass,those, those might all get taxed
a little bit differently, forsure.

Speaker 2 (11:28):
Different tariff codes.
Yeah, there's so many thingshere to back it up.
The tariff code is gettingconstantly updated, even before
Trump.
It's six times a year at aminimum usually that the
International Trade Commissionwill update the tariff codes,
and that's because companies arelobbying for classifications

(11:50):
and applying for rulings fromcustoms all the time for new
products.
There's a lot of product tariffcodes that are just other other
meaning, like they don't reallyfit in a defined category and
you actually want to getclassified properly and file a
ruling to be classified properlyso that you can potentially get
a more favorable rate.
There's the code itself ishilarious 0101, like the.

(12:13):
The beginning of the of the ofthe code is for live asses,
mules and hinnies.
Under header 01 is live animals, like you.
You just there's stuff in herethat has been in here since the
formation of the economy andlike we're still using this
system, and so you can imaginewhy there's constant updates and
it creates a total nightmarefor customers that have long

(12:36):
product catalogs and I thinklike that it makes a ton of
sense to be using a product likewhat Emil's using to do
classification, a product likewhat Emil's using to do
classification.
When I took the customslicensing brokerage licensing
exam.
16 of the 60 or 80 questions Ithink it's 80 questions or 20 of
the 80 questions areclassification questions.
They give you like foursentence description of a

(12:58):
product and where it's comingfrom and you got to figure out a
duty rate or an eight or 10digit classification.
They're really hard questionsto answer.
Or an eight or 10 digitclassification?
They're really hard questionsto answer and so this stuff is
seriously complex and constantlychanging.

Speaker 1 (13:11):
So if I learn anything today, it's the first
thing ever tariffed was the livemule.

Speaker 2 (13:18):
Yeah, I actually I wonder what the first thing.
I mean, I think customs hasbeen around since before money
was invented, but I don't knowwhat.
The first thing ever.
It might have been a mule.

Speaker 1 (13:28):
Okay, we'll keep that .
Let's use this as a good segueinto your own story, justin.
So same thing, kind of give ussome kind of background on
yourself and Caspian, whatyou're building.
Let's start there.

Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, absolutely so.
Thanks a ton for for having me.
Um, it's a pleasure to chatwith all of you guys about.
About the topic of the dayterrace um, I think it's a truly
crazy time right now to be intrade.
Uh, it's, it's exciting becausethere's lots of excitement, but
it's also, uh, sometimes likeparalyzing because the news is
changing so so rapidly.

(14:03):
So we could talk about aboutthat, um, but uh, basically we,
we are building caspian to doall the post-entry analysis,
audit and and and corrections,and and and and tariff refunds
that you might encounter.
And because, like, thesituation on the ground is so
fluid in supply chain world evenbefore Trump came into office,

(14:25):
there's a lot of movements andclearances that get done in a
non-compliant or suboptimal wayand we want to go back and help
companies correct that after thefact.
And so we're basically buildingthis audit layer for global
trade.
We're starting with a companycalled a product sorry, called
duty drawback, which isbasically a refund for products

(14:47):
that are exported from the U?
S.
Most developed economies have adrawback concept.
It's an export incentive.
It helps businesses, helpsupport manufacturing businesses
and then brands that areimporting, storing locally and
then shipping back out all overthe world.
So, generally speaking, thoseare US companies if you're

(15:09):
applying for a US drawback.
It also helps global businessesmove inventory into the US and
then move it back out if theyneed to for inventory management
purposes, and so it kind ofreduces risk for global
businesses to operate from theUS.
So it's net-net like abipartisan thing that most

(15:32):
people agree is beneficial tohelp grow export volume and grow
GDP.
It's a super complicated area ofsupply chain services.
It's really hard to gather allof this data.
We can get into some of thespecifics of it.
It's really hard to gather astructure, analyze all this data
and then calculate and submitthese claims.

(15:54):
You have to be a licensedcustoms broker to do that work,
which we are.
You have to have a directconnection with customs to
transmit entries, which we do,and that is what we've been
working on for the past year orso since we incorporated.
So, yeah, happy to talk moreabout how we're using AI in the
product.
It's a real thing.
That is not, you know, mewaving a magic wand and saying,

(16:17):
like AI, like it is still ahuman in the loop process.
But yes, we're using both bothmore traditional AI and LLMs
every day in the customerexperience and yeah, it's been a
blast.
I mean we started the companywith myself and three other

(16:37):
XFlexport customs folks, so theteam has a ton of background in
customs and then has built AIproducts in freight audits at
Loop, which is another excitingAI logistics tech company.
And then I ran Flexport Capital, which is the lending and

(16:57):
finance group at Flexport,working with finance
stakeholders of these brands whoare basically saying, hey, we
don't have good tools to manageour duty exposure, can you help
us?
So that was kind of where themotivation for Gasping came from
.

Speaker 1 (17:12):
I was literally just about to ask you that.
I was like what was theinspiration for starting the
company?

Speaker 2 (17:17):
Yeah, well, I was at Flexport during Trump's first
term and the COVID supply chaincrises and the Ever supply chain
crises, like the Evergrandeclogging the Suez Canal, if you
remember that, and like all the90 container ships parked off
the port of LA, and it was justlike an insane, insane time.
And during that time I think itwas really hard to get products

(17:40):
into the country at all andfreight prices, cross modes were
skyrocketing.
Um, I think that's really where, like that focus on mexico and
near shoring started to reallyramp up in that time frame.
Um, uh, which which obviouslyis where matt's matt's working
right now um, and a lot ofpeople at that time really

(18:02):
looked at their rate costs goingup and they were like, why are
they hammering their providerson rates?
Why are you charging me so muchon my logistics rates?
And they didn't realize that itwas the Trump tariffs also
building in another 25% intotheir cogs for China imports.
And at Flexport we were veryheavily focused on Trans-Pacific
Eastbound cargo from Asia tothe US.

(18:25):
So that was a big percentage ofour customer base.
And, yeah, and then at the endof my time there, we worked on a
product called Instant Drawbackwhich Flexport offers, which is
a pretty cool product.
Basically, they file yourdrawback claim for you and they
actually advance you the fundsimmediately, and so Flexport
Capital actually is the groupthat finances that payment, and

(18:46):
it's kind of just fully no riskat all to the customer.
So I think we'll hopefullylaunch something similar to that
in the next year or so.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
And am I right in saying to both you, justin and
Emil, that your customer baseare the shippers, the
manufacturers themselves?

Speaker 3 (19:05):
In our case it's a combination right, and it's been
growing rapidly, I think.
On one hand we're helpingbrokers and consultants that are
helping you know, companies toyou know, to figure out how to
import things.
Then we're getting a lot ofcustomers directly.
You know that are importers orexporters, and then more

(19:26):
recently we've been having a lotmore interest from e-commerce
platforms, right, and especiallyas the Minimis it's going away.
That introduces a lot ofcomplexity and I don't know for
those that don't know much aboutthe Minimis, even though that's
been in the news everywhere lotof complexity and and I don't
know for for those that don'tknow much about the minimis,
even though that's been in thenews everywhere, it's up until

(19:48):
now, in the us, every packageunder 800 in value didn't have
to go through the scrutiny thatmost you know shipments go
through in terms ofclassification and descriptions
and duties and and so on.
That was kind of abused by a fewcompanies, some out of China,

(20:10):
like Shane and Temu and so on.
So, in a nutshell, theadministration has decided that
that's actually going away,right, and that represents close
to 4 million shipments per day.
And that represents close to 4million shipments per day.
So a lot of companies that arein the e-commerce space have

(20:33):
never really had to classifytheir products or deal with
tariffs in a big way and all ofa sudden it's like, okay, now we
have to rush and get all thesethings done.
So we've been seeing also, likeI said, some, some e-commerce
players knocking on our door andtrying to, you know, get ahead
of this as quickly as they can.

Speaker 1 (20:54):
Are you looking to grow your brokerage?
Are you struggling to land newcustomers in these challenging
market conditions?
Look within so many companiesthat tender you freight
throughout the domestic UnitedStates also have business coming
out of Mexico.
A year ago I understand why youmight not have seen that
freight as an opportunity, buttoday Cargado exists and that

(21:16):
means any load coming into orout of Mexico is now an
opportunity for you to support.
In just over a year I've beenable to see Cargado go from
ideation to launch to rapidgrowth.
It's amazing to see how manylogistics companies have been
able to use Cargado to expandinto Mexico to grow their
business.
Cargado is the first platformthat connects logistics

(21:38):
companies and trucking companieswho are moving freight into and
out of Mexico.
If you move Mexico freight orare planning to reach out to
Cargado today at cargadocom,that's C-A-R-G-A-D-Ocom.
Thank you and Justin.
Your customer base largelyshipper manufacturers.

Speaker 2 (21:55):
We go direct to shippers yeah, both brands and
manufacturers.
We also have started havingsome conversations with brokers
that want to offer some of thesemore consultative products, but
they don't really have theheadcount to invest in it and so
we can step in and white labelstuff for them.
We haven't launched anythingofficial or public yet, but

(22:17):
we'll have some of thosepartnerships later this year.
Live.

Speaker 1 (22:21):
And for both of your companies.
The recent, recent news theannouncement of the tariffs that
is like monumental impact toyour business, right, like it's
pretty significant change inwhat your customers are coming
to you for, or how much they'recoming to you for.
Is that right?

Speaker 2 (22:40):
yeah, absolutely.
I mean.
I just to give you a concrete,maybe two concrete concrete
examples.
One we have a customer thatimports electronics from China
and of course they were paying25%, section 301% on their next
set of shipments.
I spoke to the CEO last nightand they're trying to figure out

(23:12):
when they should make thatinventory purchase.
Their buying season is in Q2.
They have to have it in stock.
What do they do?
And that's a massive increasein their cost of goods.
The other example is a lessalarming one, which is an

(23:32):
agriculture company, a growerlike St Citrus Fruits, and they
import and export.
They grow in North America, usand Mexico.
They import from all over theworld and that's a really
seasonal business.
And now, you know, historicallythe tariff rates on agriculture
products have been pretty low.

(23:53):
Looking at, you know cents perkilogram, and now they're going
to be paying 10% of the value ofthe products.
So they, they were their, theirtariffs have gone up like 100x.
So they're, they're, it's, it'sstill.
You know 10 of cogs.

(24:13):
It's not the end of the world,but it is a.
You know, some of thesebusinesses in distribution and
wholesale have pretty slimmargins.
You can't, you can't reallyabsorb stuff like that overnight
.

Speaker 1 (24:23):
Yeah, all right, matt .
I want to come to you now andyour business is a little bit
different, because I don't feellike and correct me if I'm wrong

(24:48):
with calls from your customersbeing like oh my God, this is
changing everything for us, butthere is potentially massive
impact to your business down theroad as a result of how supply
chains may shift to be moreNorth American, us,
mexico-focused right.

Speaker 4 (25:10):
Yeah, I would, I guess.
First of all I would clarifyboth of them mentioned brokers.
They're both talking aboutcustoms brokers, not freight
brokers, which I know a lot ofyour audience is freight
broker-oriented.
So to clarify that, one thingnumber two this feels like that
last leg of the nearshoring wavethat really kicks over an

(25:34):
influx of that volume, and so Ithink between the initial update
from NAFTA to the USMCA, thenyou've got the beginnings of the
trade war during the firstTrump administration between the
US and China.
You've got everything like thatballoon that was flying over
the United States from China andthe CHIPS Act continued to
encourage more and more reliancemoving away from China and over

(25:58):
to Mexico, and then thepandemic on top of it kicked
everything over, and now you'vegot the tariffs, and so for so
many different reasons it makessense for manufacturers to move
to Mexico, and I think over timewe'll see that affect our
customer base, in particular thefreight brokers that are
serving those companies, but italso has a major impact on both

(26:19):
of your customer bases too.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
So it's like the smart brokers are thinking how
do I grow my business?
Like not today, not tomorrow,but over the next five years?
Those are the ones that aresaying okay, if I'm looking at
the global trade environment, Ishould probably start playing
ball in Mexico, because that'swhere a lot of business is going

(26:41):
, and if they want to do that,they probably should start
talking to you.
Is that right?

Speaker 4 (26:45):
they probably should start talking to you Is that
right?
And, more importantly, starttalking to their customers about
how to support them if they arestarting to make that move.
I remember at Forger we had acustomer overnight.
They effectively bought a plantin Mexico when they realized
they could not get filters outof China anymore during the
pandemic and so they bought aplant in Mexico, started
manufacturing down there andshipping to the United States.

(27:07):
And so, as a broker if I weresitting in a freight broker's
shoes right now working withshippers, especially if they
were relying on imports comingin from, let's say, drage moves
from Long Beach that are all ofa sudden dropping off you're
probably going to want to starttalking to your customer about
where to source capacity inMexico, about how to support
their network as they shift toMexico, and maybe even offer up

(27:30):
some good markets in Mexicowhere to set up shop, like
Monterey, querétaro, the Bajio,mexico City and Puebla and
Guadalajara.

Speaker 1 (27:40):
And let me give you just a minute to well as long as
you need, but just to kind ofdefine your business, what
you're building at Cargato, forthose that have not listened to
our episode together in the past, yeah, so we support over 200
freight brokers, 3pls, freightforwarders that are moving
cross-border freight.

Speaker 4 (27:59):
They're able to post their loads and lanes in Cargato
.
To post their loads and lanesin Cargado, it's a marketplace
or a load board where truckingcompanies about 750 of them can
bid on that freight.
They get notified based ontheir capacity and their
preferences.
They bid, they negotiatethrough the platform and then
get connected via email.

Speaker 1 (28:24):
I'm just curious how has the last month impacted your
business, if it has at all, oris it more just kind of things
for you to talk about with yourcustomers?
Help me understand if there'sbeen an impact there.

Speaker 4 (28:38):
It's consumed all of my time writing things on
LinkedIn and in my blog.
Well, I think you were alreadyconsuming all your time writing
things on LinkedIn?

Speaker 1 (28:46):
and your blog but I think you just got more content
to do that.
I got more content.

Speaker 4 (28:52):
Well, so it became a topic.
In every single conversationI've had over the last month or
two leading up to ourfundraising announcement and all
that stuff and talking toinvestors, I had to answer
questions about tariffs.
I know that even Adriana, mywife, was looking for experts
that could talk about tariffsand everything related to trade

(29:12):
at Tegas or AlphaSense.
So I'm not only hearing itabout it in my own work calls,
but I'm hearing about it afterwork too.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
And the Studio Ghibli memes happened at the exact
perfect time as well.

Speaker 4 (29:26):
It's been perfect.

Speaker 2 (29:27):
Your image generation has gotten a lot better for
your memeing.

Speaker 4 (29:32):
I pivoted with the image generation.
We'll see what comes up next.
Maybe we'll do some legos orthe new uh, what are those new
sets that everybody's posting?

Speaker 2 (29:42):
about the starter kits.
It's the starter kits.

Speaker 4 (29:45):
You'll see, I'll post you with your got it all right.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
Moving off of your nonsense, it's great.
I appreciate the intros fromeach of you.
Let's just start with a kind ofvery general what are the most
significant changes in tariffsthat have kind of come into
effect in the last month?
And I'm also curious whichindustries are most impacted

(30:14):
that you've seen and at thispoint I'm not going to call on
you guys I will call on you guysindividually here and there,
but if I don't call on someoneindividually, it's whoever wants
to grab it.
Try not to speak over eachother.

Speaker 3 (30:31):
Yeah, I can give you my two cents based on what we've
been seeing and it's beennonstop drinking from the
firehouse a little bit in thelast few weeks.
Apparel has been interesting,right.
There is a lot of stuff in theretail industry especially
apparel, you know footwearaccessories coming from China.

(30:56):
So that's a, you know, hair onfire kind of space.
You know there is a lot ofpeople kind of trying to figure
out first of all, what all ofthis is going to mean to them
and then what are their options,if any, and also, I guess, even
trying to understand, like withthis stop and go and stop and

(31:20):
go kind of, okay, we're going todo tariffs and then we're going
to stop the tariffs, so thenwe're going to definitely do the
tariffs, but not for the nextthree months.
So even those are trying tomove things from one place to
another are trying to figure outis, you know, by the time we
move all of our manufacturing ordo whatever we need to do, is
that is everything gonna have bechanged again?

(31:40):
Uh, so we, we've seen that alot.
And then automotive has beencrazy, also active.
Uh, we've seen a lot of that.
Just last week we, you know,had a broker come to us with a
list of 30 000 parts, uh, thatneeded to be classified, right?

(32:00):
So if you, if you take, youknow, roughly 30 minutes per
product times, 30 000 products,that's a crazy number of hours,
180 days for 10 you know 10people, uh, at a you know 250
bucks an hour type of rate.
So it's, it becomes crazy.

(32:20):
Um, so I would say those arethe two that I've seen recently,
like, really, people showing upwith their hairs on fire trying
to figure out what they'regonna do, but I don't know.

Speaker 2 (32:32):
I, you know love to hear what, uh, you guys are
seeing too yeah, um, the, Ithink for, for for me it's been
like the, the.
The margin profile of thecustomer directly determines,
like, how sensitive they are tothe, so the tariff impact.
So, like we spoke to a defensethe defense company, their

(32:56):
margin profile is really high ontheir hardware.
They said that tariffs could goup to 600% and they would never
switch away from supplying fromChina.
So companies like that, thereality is that Chinese
manufacturing is really highquality and really affordable,

(33:16):
and so there's some sectorsyou're just not really going to
see shifts unless it'sexplicitly legislated.
Other sectors are lessresilient.
So I think, e-commerce, with theSection 321 de minimis loophole

(33:39):
going away, lower valueproducts if you're selling
T-shirts or Amazon seller typeproducts, say, msrp below $100,
it's a really big.
This whole tariff situation isa really big deal.
So, yeah, like Emil was saying,footwear, lower value apparel,

(34:02):
luxury items again a little bitmore insulated and now certainly
paying more duties per unit orduties per shipment, if you will
, because tariff rates are goingup on an ad valorem basis, per
shipment, if you will, becausetariff rates are going up on an
ad valorem basis.
But there are ways for thosecompanies to get some of those

(34:23):
duties back that don't requirethem to change their supply
chains or change a whole bunchof operational setup.
So yeah, that's my high level.
I think manufacturing is kind ofTBD for a lot of manufacturers
right now because they kind ofneed to plan on a little bit of
a longer time horizon and mostmanufacturers I talk to are just

(34:44):
trying to do absolutely nothinguntil there's clarity, because
they can't afford to make somesort of sudden move or change to
their sourcing or to theirsupplier base until they to to
to their, for their supplierbase, um, and until they, until
they really know what's going tohappen with, with the tariffs
so I, so I get how there's stillsome ambiguity around what the

(35:09):
final answer will be or, likeyou know, numbers will look like
in terms of who gets tariffedhow much, when it's all said and
done, when, when they finallysay, hey, these are the numbers,
this is what it is now movingforward, what options?

Speaker 1 (35:26):
what are like all the options that a company has.
Let's say I go, and you know,I'm in the middle of a rebrand
for the podcast, the Freight Pod, and I got a new logo coming
soon.
And let's say, I start sellingmerch and hats and t-shirts and
I make them in China or whatever.
And then this happens, and I'vebeen doing this for a while.
Let's say, what choices do Ihave to navigate this?

Speaker 4 (35:55):
to navigate this.
Thank you, vietnam.
It seems like Vietnam is reallyquick to come to the table, if
it's.
If it's, you know, clothing andapparel I think there is some
made in Mexico for sure.
I don't think all of a suddenyou're going to be making hats
in the United States, though soit's.
It's definitely still going tohave to come from another
country, and we saw, immediatelyafter the States, though so

(36:16):
it's definitely still going tohave to come from another
country, and we saw immediatelyafter the worldwide tariffs were
placed, that Vietnam is one ofthe first countries to come to
the table and say hang on, onesecond, we'll negotiate, and so
I think they'll be rewarded bybeing the first ones to come
forward.
And there are companies that,over the last four or eight
years, they just relocated alltheir manufacturing from China

(36:37):
to Vietnam and to othercountries in Asia that had a
friendlier relationship with theUnited States, and they're
relying on that, and they'reabsolutely lobbying right now to
get exemptions in place or tobe able to have a longer term
path to not have to relocate yetagain, unless you know, yeah,
know, yeah, of course I'm goingto advocate for mexico, but not

(36:57):
all of them can.

Speaker 2 (36:58):
They don't have the resources or the raw materials
to be able to produce there yeah, I mean, andrew, I think you
should just put a like trumptariff fee on your, on your
invoice to your customer.
I mean?

Speaker 1 (37:10):
is that a?

Speaker 2 (37:10):
realistic thing that's going to happen.
I thought it was something Imean today, but I was thinking
about that.
I mean I think in an e-combrand that makes a ton of sense
to me.
I mean, gosh, I live in SanFrancisco.
The tax portion of everyreceipt when I go to a
restaurant it's like five lines,at least in SF.

(37:33):
I think that would go over.
Well, I don't know, maybe therest of the country.
But I mean there's definitelythings you could do on pricing
On the supplier side.
Some of the creative ideas.
I've heard some creative ideasLike FX is moving around a ton
right now and so it's kind of a.

(37:55):
You know the foreign currencieshave devalued against their
dollar for a long time now andthen that started to correct
with the tariffs.
The dollar's appreciated a lotrecently.
You can look at the local pricethat you're procuring in.
Most procurement is done in USdollars, but you can look at the
price per unit in localcurrency and see if you're

(38:15):
actually paying a lot more nowthan you were when you
negotiated that supplierrelationship in the first place.
That's one interesting one thatI heard recently from the FX
team at JP Morgan.
They were advising somecustomers on that.
The other things.
There's terms and workingcapital.
How can you just delay payingduties at all?

(38:37):
There's like a bonded warehouseis something that I've heard
consistently in the last severaldays.
I think Shipmonk just launchedtheir bonded warehouse offering
today, but in a way that you candelay.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
Oh, go ahead.
So I, just for the audience'ssake, can explain how does
bonded warehouse work?
What's, how is that a solution?

Speaker 2 (38:57):
Basically, you just, you just don't pay.
You don't pay the duties untilthe goods leave the warehouse
into the United States forconsumption.
You enter them for consumptionwhen they leave the warehouse
and get shipped out to acustomer.
So when they, when you bringthem into the country, you, you,
you don, you basically get dutydeferral.
But this has been like I thinkit's been mentioned on a lot of

(39:23):
podcasts recently talking aboutthis.
So, yeah, matt, were you goingto add something?

Speaker 4 (39:26):
there.
Can you actually explain what abond is?

Speaker 2 (39:29):
Yeah, a customs bond is.
Basically you have to put thisup with CBP to cover the duties
that you may owe.
So it's like insurance thatcustoms makes you buy in case
you become delinquent withcustoms.
So if you don't pay your dutieson time, customs will clot out
of your bond and you have to beable to go to the bond provider

(39:50):
and they'll get paid by the bondprovider and the bond provider
will chase you as the importerand so yeah, there's significant
costs to doing this right.
Yeah, go ahead, matt.

Speaker 4 (40:00):
So a bonded warehouse is putting up a deposit
effectively to say I'll holdonto these materials, I won't
let them get consumed untiltaxes and duties have been paid
on this.
They're certified to do that,They've got the right
infrastructure for it andthey're they're enabling it
Right.

Speaker 2 (40:16):
And it costs like 50% more than regular warehousing,
so it's not necessarily the but,what's the value of?

Speaker 1 (40:23):
that.
Is there an expect?
Is there a hope that the cost,the tariffs, will go down by the
time you release them, or what?
Why that's why?

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Yeah, it's just like there so much uncertainty, just
delay paying tariffs, and timeis like preserved time right now
.
It's kind of the thinkinggenerally is that you know,
hopefully there will be sometrade deals negotiated, even on
the 10% base reciprocal tariff,like maybe that'll get
negotiated away for certaincountries, or certainly the 145%

(40:53):
on China.
I think it's going to get alittle bit worse in the near
term, but I think people arehoping that in the next several
months there will be some typeof resolution there that you
won't have to pay 145%.
So if you can get the stuffinto the country and then have
it sit there for several monthsand wait and then pay duty when
you ship it out to customers,maybe that's a better move.

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profitably.
It's interesting to think aboutthe cost of the tariff being so
substantial that it's worth itto have products sit in a

(42:19):
warehouse that you're paying upto 50% more than it would in a
warehouse otherwise.
That just feels like a reallygood way to understand how
significant that cost must be.
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (42:31):
And it's so hard to generalize about these things
because each customer'ssituation is totally different.
So, if your unit economics cansustain like we were talking
about that 600% tariff commentearlier if your unit economics
are profitable with 145% tariffand your competitors are not,
buy a lot of inventory and putyour competitor out of business,

(42:52):
like you know, take over themarket because they can't sell
products at a loss.
So there's all sorts of crazygame theory now that customers
are trying to think through.

Speaker 4 (43:02):
I remember we had back when I was brokering
Freight and working with a suitmanufacturer that was importing
a lot of the raw material fromoverseas.
They would hold it in a bondedwarehouse.
It would be a large roll offabric, probably a million
dollars worth of material, butthey would keep it in a bonded

(43:27):
warehouse and they would cut a20th of it at a time and pay the
duties on $50,000 worth of thatmaterial at a time, as opposed
to having to import all of it atthe same time.
So I think part of it.
You could look at that the sameway where, with e-commerce, you
might pull in a million dollarsworth of materials but not want
to pay duties on all of that,yet you might only want to cut
or sell what you're going towant to pay taxes on before

(43:50):
you'd start to process the restof that, basically spreading the
money out.

Speaker 2 (43:56):
Mm-hmm yeah.

Speaker 1 (44:03):
So in light of these kind of challenges like how,
let's say, someone wants to movea supplier and go from China to
Vietnam, can you explain whatthat process is like, how long
that takes?
I mean, are you having to stopyour business for months at a

(44:23):
time?
Like, how do you navigate thatin a timely manner?
I'm just curious what thatlooks like, if any of you know.

Speaker 3 (44:33):
And I guess it depends, of course that's the
most obvious answer it dependson what it is that you
manufacture and, of course, whatyou know, how sophisticated, uh
, you know the, theinfrastructure and equipment and
all that and manpower that youneed, right?
So there are, like uh, justinsaid, there are certain things
that it's just really hard tomove.
Even if you, justin, said thereare certain things that it's

(44:54):
just really hard to move, evenif you wanted to, you may go
into a place where the type ofengineers or the type of you
know people that you need thetalent that you need to
manufacture certain things, it'sjust not going to be available,
right?
So, assuming that you are oneof those in one of those
industries where you canactually move, and that you know

(45:19):
the infrastructure is alreadykind of available or can be made
available to move, it's still,you know, I don't think I
haven't heard of anybody that isjust doing this thing you know,
like very quickly, obviously,if you're doing like I don't
know T-shirts or sweaters orsomething that is relatively
easy, then you can moverelatively quickly.

(45:40):
But if you're doing consumerelectronics, if you're building
iPhones, you're building verycomplex auto parts or things
like that, it's going to takeyears, I think, for many of
these people and whoeveractually can find the resources
and the equipment to actually doit at all, right.

(46:03):
So I don't think it's so simple, right and to be able to do it.
That's kind of what we'rehearing on a daily basis people
figuring out how to deal andbegging almost that the Chinese
trade war kind of with the USeases up a little bit because
you know they don't have anyoptions right now.
I mean, some of them are reallystruggling with that.

Speaker 1 (46:27):
Yeah, it just seems so challenging to think about a
multi-year near-shore effort orjust change effort from one
country to another, especiallygiven that you know, as you
think about politics in ourcountry, every four years you

(46:48):
could see a monumental shift inthe entire perspective of the
government.
And you know we're seeing whatfeels like the most drastic
shift from one government toanother in this current
establishment.
And this is not by any meansmeant to be for or against
either party, more just a matterof how do you navigate such

(47:12):
volatility in terms ofgovernmental regulation?
Because if I'm sitting heresaying, okay, trump's following
through with the tariffs, it'sgoing to happen and it's going
to be really bad for China,anything I'm making there and
challenging things I make there,I need to move and it takes me

(47:33):
two years to do that.
But theoretically you could saythere's a 50 chance.
I know it's not 50, but, likeyou know, one or the other party
wins in four years and if it'sthe other one, it's reasonable
to assume all this stuff getspulled back and it's like you
can't just like pick up and goback to where you were right.
So I just how do you know?
How do people, how do companiesthink about that.

Speaker 3 (47:55):
Any idea like how do you navigate that plus you have
to keep in mind yeah, sorry, andyou have to keep in mind that
the other countries are notstaying put.
It's not like everybody's justwaiting for us to make whatever
decisions.
They're also kind of reacting,and reacting in a retaliatory
way also, right, so it's notgetting any easier.
Sorry, matt, that you weregoing to potentially provide a

(48:16):
better answer than this.

Speaker 4 (48:18):
No well, I think you're correct that other
countries will start to makeother plans.
I don't think there's been anyinconsistency about how US
presidents over the last four orfive administrations have felt
towards China, so I think thatwill stay and if whether it's JD
Vance or whoever it is the nextpresident after Trump, they're

(48:41):
probably going to go all right.
Well, thank you for taking careof that.
And there's a race right now.
There's an arms race, there'san AI race to competing with
China for the United States.
So anything the US can do toget ahead against China, I think
we're going to keep moving inthat direction and that's where
I think we're going to see a newdo.
I think it's going to foreverbe 125 or 150 percent?

(49:03):
No, I think that willeventually calm down, but I
don't think it goes back to whatit was like before, and I think
more and more companies startto realize that after, like I
said before, everything elsebetween the updated trade
agreements and the pandemic andnow these tariffs there have
been so many reasons now thatsay it's not safe to rely on
China anymore.

Speaker 1 (49:27):
That makes sense.
Let's move to kind of theoperational impact, and I'm
curious both to your companiesand to that of your customers.
So let's move to kind of theoperational impact, and I'm
curious both to your companiesand to those of that of your
customers.
So let's start with your owncompanies, like can you give
some examples of how you've hadto adapt operationally to

(49:47):
navigate the last I don't knowtwo months?

Speaker 3 (49:53):
I'll start.
I mean, it's been all aboutacceleration for us.
It's we.
You know we.
We had an original plan that wasdefined, you know, right before
the you know Trump won theelections and you know we had to

(50:13):
accelerate that plan four orfive times already.
You know we were supposed tolaunch a product somewhere you
know around now actually.
And then we, when we heard therhetoric around tariffs, we said
no, we got to go faster.
We need to launch our tarifftools and our classification
tools.
And we did, on January 20th,tariff tools and our

(50:36):
classification tools.
And we did on january 20thright, no coincidence there for
sure.
And uh, and then it's um, we, wewere expecting to be selling
mostly to customs brokers first,and then, you know why, a while
later, really talking toimporters and exporters, and
then, a while later, you know,to be talking to e-commerce and
all of the sudden, it's likethey're all knocking on our door

(50:57):
right now and it's a greatopportunity.
But we had to scale very fastand the team and all that
Granted.
There's arguably been a bettertime in the history of software
development than now to be ableto scale fast and to be doing,
be able to do a lot with a lotless um.

(51:20):
So you know, thank god for that, you know, because otherwise it
would have been really reallyhard but um, but yeah, I think
that that for us it's beenreally about how how can we move
much faster so that we can helpand support a lot of these
people?
I know there's nothing we cando about the geopolitical

(51:42):
situation, right, there's no waywe can influence that.
But you know we're trying tosort of be able to help those
that are now dealing with thefallout of all this mess, right,
and that they need very quickreactions and tools and stuff
that can get them back on trackas fast as possible.

Speaker 2 (52:05):
Yeah, I second that in our roadmap from a
development perspective now,because the this awareness at a
c level right now of of tariffsis so much higher than it was in
the fall.
Um, and I think everyone kindof knew they knew all all c

(52:27):
teams like how to companies hadsome perspective that like
tariffs were going to probablyshift but we weren't really
really getting the level ofinbound that we're getting now.
And now, if you know, everysingle C-level executive all
over the world has tariffs ontheir mind every day and that's
just a completely differentworld to live in when you're

(52:49):
doing, planning and developing aproduct.
I think we can take a lot morebets now.
That may have seemed like, oh,let's do that later in the year,
let's do that when we're closerto our Series A or whatnot, and
actually starting to pull someof those experiments in faster
is one big change for us.
The other big change is justthat the rate of change is so

(53:13):
fast and it's impacting ourcustomers so immediately that
when we have clients that arefiling drawback claims on a
quarterly basis, the mechanismof how we actually aggregate
their data, structure it, parseit, create claims out of it
that's changing a lot and it'schanging more rapidly than we

(53:33):
anticipated it would be, and soI think that's changing a lot
and it's changing more rapidlythan we anticipated it would be,
and so I think that's beensomething that we just have to
be responsive to, and we'vespent a lot of time building our
versioned HTS database, forexample, where we have, every
time the tariff schedule changes, we have a date stamp version

(53:54):
of it.
Time the tariff schedule changes, we have a date stamp version
of it and we can look athistorical customs entries and
identify the tariff rate, evenif that tariff rate no longer
exists currently.
Things like that that are.
You know, when you think aboutbuilding a technology product,
you have to think about buildingthese sorts of assets, um, that

(54:15):
you're going to rely on forfuture product launches, and
we've had to deal invest in someof that stuff more recently.

Speaker 1 (54:22):
That makes sense, matt?
Are you seeing any of this, oris yours more about, like,
longer term conversationalpreparedness?

Speaker 4 (54:32):
So the again, one of the biggest impacts is
definitely social media strategy, but the it's, if anything you
know.
So we have two different typesof customers that we work with.
It's.
On one side, there are brokersthat are starting to see Mexico
Freight for the first time.
They'll use Cargada to convertthose first opportunities.

(54:53):
That category of brokers we'veseen be a little bit more
skittish around going afterMexico Freight for the first
time if they weren't alreadydoing it, and so that could have
a near-term impact on sales.
For example, for the brokersthat are already moving Mexico
Freight, though they're going tolean more into it.
They are leaning more into itand getting aggressive with

(55:14):
quoting freight, and so it's notbeen anything that's needed,
any sort of product adjustments.
For us, it's more about justproviding as much information to
our customer base as possible,making sure the sales team
understands how to talk throughit and explain it, and being
able to leverage the data thatwe've got, that we've collected
from bids from carriers, andshare that data with the market

(55:36):
so that people understand what'shappening in rates.

Speaker 1 (55:41):
I don't understand why, in the near term, you're
saying why would people be moreskittish now to get involved?

Speaker 4 (55:50):
in mexico, well as of the last week.
They can feel better about it.

Speaker 1 (55:53):
Finally because because it.

Speaker 4 (55:57):
Yeah, it came out that that the usmca was
basically mexico and canada werenot affected by any of these
tariffs.
Uh, and, and that clarificationonly came out in the last week.
So for the last three monthsleading into the end of January,
we all thought that there weregoing to be some version of
tariffs placed on Mexico andCanada.
Then, a few days after the endof January, the beginning of

(56:17):
February, basically you have theagreements in place with Mexico
for preventing drugs andillegal immigration,
specifically for targetingfentanyl, and then, going into
March, you have the same problemcoming up again.
Where there's a threat oftariffs, people start to get
scared, they start to accelerate, pushing more volume out from
Mexico and Canada, and you startto see that spike happen again

(56:38):
and then you see it dip and so,as brokers think, all right, so
the market's compressing Because, remember, this whole trade war
is affecting domestic volumetoo.
It does not only affectinternational freight, because a
lot of international freightcoming into the ports through
Long Beach are gettingcross-stocked in LA or somewhere
in the LA area.

(56:58):
That becomes domestic freightand so domestic freight starts
to drop off.
Brokers start to see marginscompressed, they see volume
compressed.
They get a little bit moreanxious about investing in new
areas, and so in the immediateterm, you know you could see a
broker that might be lesswilling to invest in trying out
a new motor service.
But that was, I would say, asof a week ago.

(57:21):
Now, with that clarificationthat Mexico and Canada are not
affected, if I were running abrokerage that saw margins
starting to tighten up from thelack of imports into the US
ports, first thing I'd bethinking about would be
expanding to Mexico and Canada.

Speaker 2 (57:35):
Yeah, this is such an important point that Matt's
making about USMCA productseligible products not being
subject to the tariff.
Could you just repeat that,because I think that is
something that is commonly notunderstood and really changes
how you think about who's payingfor which countries are really

(57:57):
getting affected.

Speaker 4 (57:59):
Yeah, so it's over half of the goods that come out
of Mexico and Canada fall underthe USMCA, and for the goods
that didn't fall into the USMCAbut then got grandfathered in
afterwards, you hear about allthe cars that are not made in
North America that were going toget taxed, those cars that have
been coming in from Sweden, forexample, for Volvo, and from

(58:20):
Europe or Volkswagen and Audiand a lot of the other European
car companies, and same thingwith some of the Korean and
Japanese car companies that areimporting from Korea and Japan.
Same deal They've had deals inplace.
Those deals are not going away.
None of those deals are goingaway, and so car manufacturing
is, I would say, fairly safe.

(58:42):
Automotive parts, the assemblyaspect of it yes, there's going
to continue to be moreencouragement to bring assembly
to the United States.
We've seen that for a long time.
We see Hyundai, which owns Kia,investing extensively in the US
right now, but again, a lot oftheir parts are going to come
from Mexico.
Same as we see for Tesla, samefor Rivian.

(59:02):
Even the cars that areassembled by American brands in
the United States still comefrom Mexico, and all that stuff
is safe, and so, thankfully, weshould not see any sort of giant
price increases on cars.
We've averted that crisis,thankfully, and I think
consumers will be happy withthat.
But yeah, the stuff that yourandomly get distracted by and

(59:24):
order off of Instagram, all of asudden that price is going to
go up pretty extensively.

Speaker 1 (59:29):
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(59:52):
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(01:00:14):
Go check them out atmetaforanet.
That's M-E-T-A-F-O-R-A dot net.
What does it say about?
You know this is going to beconjecture and an opinion that's
?
You know this is going to beconjecture and an opinion that

(01:00:40):
nobody knows for fact is how itis and kind of the um heavy,
aggressive, uh placement onchina.
Like what is he really sayinghere?

Speaker 4 (01:00:56):
keep in mind that mexican, mexican, canada are
neighbors, right, and and that'sthat provides protection.
You know there's, it's a landcomponent that provides,
prevents people from coming intoour country or is supposed to,
especially other countries frominvading, and so we need to
continue to, to keep alignmentwith Mexico and Canada, and I

(01:01:17):
think it was really clear fromearly on that there was, there
were, I would say now, twopotential driving factors
initially that I understoodthere to be.
One was that American dynamism,if you will thinking about the
US first, among anything else,was to get manufacturing back to
the United States, it was getcontrol back to the United

(01:01:39):
States when it came to trade,and so that was leveling the
playing field if there's a tradedeficit between the US and
another country, whether it'sMexico or China.
And so that was one piece washow the US was viewed, or, in
Trump's mind, how he views theUS and the world, and whether
we're winning or losing.
And then the second piece iswhat are we relying on?

(01:02:02):
Who are we relying on?
Do we align with that country?
Do we have political alignmentwith them?
Are we friendly with them?
And again, with mexico, we, wehave that friendship, to an
extent, I would hope, uh, andsame thing with canada, but with
china we don't, and so it was.
It was strengthening the tradepartnership piece of that that
he had done in his first term,and then the third piece, I

(01:02:24):
think, is uh related to um thesorry, I'm drawing a blank on it
now.
The third piece is related toum uh, removing reliance on
china overall and being able toto strengthen you know, us like
pro-america culture and, and Ithink that piece was, is, is

(01:02:47):
going to continue to be,something we hear about, but not
necessarily something thatcompletely drives policy.

Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
Yeah, 145% tariffs are just effectively an attempt
at an embargo, so it's reallylike the message is that the
Trump administration doesn'treally want you sourcing from
China.
I think, unfortunately for alot of brands, there aren't a
lot of other great options thatthey can move to quickly, but

(01:03:16):
that is clearly the tone of themessage.
To answer that question, andyeah, I think like the there.
I was talking about thisrecently with some economists,
but the Chinese economy isreally weak right now.
They're in a deflationaryenvironment.
Trump sees this as anegotiation and he is going to

(01:03:39):
negotiate when he feels he hasleverage, and he, you know he.
That's why my view is that this, the China-specific trade war,
is going to continue to worsenin the immediate future, because
China isn't going to takekindly to being approached in
this manner and, similarly, theUS administration feels like

(01:04:01):
they have leverage, and sothat's going to be challenging
for companies that are workingwith Chinese factories.

Speaker 1 (01:04:13):
What do you think best case scenario is?
How do you see this If the bestcase scenario plays out in the
next 3, 6, 12 months?
What does that look like?
I guess?
It's hard maybe to think aboutbest case for whom, but I'm just

(01:04:35):
curious your thoughts on thatin general.
Take it how you will.

Speaker 4 (01:04:42):
The best case scenario is that we're not
talking about tariffs in threeto six months.
Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:04:48):
I think Emil and I will still be talking about
tariffs, but maybe you guyswon't have to.

Speaker 4 (01:04:53):
That is not like a question for everybody every
week, because there's thisuneasiness of is this going to
happen or not, like it's alwayssomething that needs to be
banished, but there needs to.
We need to eventually get tosome sort of new normal and and
like I don't know if this is thebest way to put this, but but
that you know there's a adifferent distraction, that that

(01:05:14):
pulls everyone's attention inanother direction besides like
worrying about how much we'regonna.
You know what type of taxes anddues are going to be applied to
every single country over.
There's 90 days to negotiateterms with 150 countries.
That's not all going to getdone and we're going to see
another extension happen.
This will continue to drag on.
So this becomes a distraction.

(01:05:36):
It becomes a just it isn'talready a distraction for a lot
of people.
It's a distraction for everycfo at every manufacturer that
is involved in trade.
It will continue to be adistraction for them, instead of
them being able to invest andinnovate and everything else
that they want to do.
So, ideally, it eventuallybecomes something that is less
of a distraction.

Speaker 2 (01:05:57):
A new normal settles in and hopefully we've got
something in place, because Ihave to imagine that Trump does
not still want to be talkingabout tariffs when midterms roll
around and wants a more stableeconomy to be able to maintain
the structure that's in placeright now stated policy goal of

(01:06:23):
let's, let's, let's bring, let'snear shore or reshore critical
industries to some extent topreserve national security and
and and secure supply chains ofof critical items chips, certain
natural resources, certainagricultural products, um,
computers, phones, things likethat, like high-tech
manufacturing, um, if we canhave, can come to some sort of

(01:06:48):
agreement with China that lowerthese you know, e-com products
like we're going to continue topurchase those because that's
clearly where they havespecialization of labor relative
to the US, but we're going tostart to home-gross again some
of these critical industries.
That would be the dream scenariofor me and I think, for a lot

(01:07:10):
of people that work in trade, toresolve this in a relatively
quick and easy fashion.
But yeah, and then the otherthing being that hopefully the
deal pipeline is really hot forHoward Ludnick and the
administration there and I think, like you, you got to root for
them because there's, I want to,I'm rooting for them to close

(01:07:33):
some deals because it's it'sit's to Matt's point like the
chaos and uncertainty is reallydamaging for uh companies to be
able to plan and invest and growuh, which is what you know
helps, helps all of us in the US.

Speaker 3 (01:07:48):
Yeah, and I would.
I would imagine, and based onconversations that have been,
you know, hearing and whatnot,that it would be interesting to
see how companies now thinkabout their supply chain
strategies moving forward Right,like, I think, like everything
now, everybody's spooked and Ican see, you know, people now

(01:08:12):
wanting to have a lot of plan Bsand Cs and Ds and figuring out,
okay, you know, what are all ofour options and how are we
going to optimize the way we dothings, and I think there's a
lot of good opportunity there.
But, you know, people aredefinitely spooked.
I mean, I think the new normal,which we'll have to see what it

(01:08:35):
ends up looking like, would bevery different from, you know,
the way companies were just, ina way, on up to some degree,
resting in their laurels.
You know, you know thinking,well, we, we got it all sorted
out in China and it will bethere for us.
It's always going to be cheapand it's always going to be easy
, and all of this thought.
And now it's like, well, maybe,maybe not right, and you know

(01:08:57):
how things are, it's, it's a bighype right now with this and
there's going to be, you know,um, a short time memory about
this, and they will have to seehow this evolves into a new
normal in supply chain.
That's going to be aninteresting thing to see.

Speaker 1 (01:09:16):
What advice would you give to company leaders for how
to navigate these uncertaintimes where there are so many
things out of your control andquestions you don't have answers
to, like what you know, forcompanies calling you not just

(01:09:38):
for how that you know.
I'm sure you're having largerconversations and part of the
answer is that your company'ssolutions can support them.
But just from a leadershipstandpoint.
This reminds me just a bit frommy own experience of being the
CEO of a freight brokerage atthe beginning of COVID and not

(01:09:59):
knowing how long and what theimpact would be, and I'm just
curious how you all think abouthow leaders can be effectively
leading in a time like this.

Speaker 3 (01:10:14):
Yeah, and I'll start by saying it has felt a little
weird, right.
I feel I was joking the otherday and saying it took me almost
50 years to become this popular, and it's, it's, and it's funny
, right, it feels a little bitlike somebody who had something

(01:10:34):
close to a vaccine for COVID,you know, four years ago, right,
and we're getting a lot ofcalls like, oh my God, we're
freaking out.
This startup is changing againand we have 10,000 products and
we need to know what impact thisis going to have on us, right,
and how quickly can you do that?
So I think what we've beentelling people is you know,

(01:11:02):
stick to the data and don'tfreak out.
I mean, there's so much stuffgoing on and people even
politicizing a lot of what'shappening, right, so it's, you
know, it's someone's fault andyou're a lot of, you know,
finger pointing and and all ofthat, and I think it's, it's, uh
, it's too much to keep up right, and also make good decisions

(01:11:24):
on the business side at the sametime.
So it's almost like you know,just stay focused on the data,
on the things that we know forsure, on the things that you can
kind of manage and control.
There's just too much crazinessgoing on right now with what
all of these kind of means fromthe political perspective and
polarization and all of that sothat I think it's important, of

(01:11:45):
means from the politicalperspective and the polarization
and and all of that so thatthat I think it's it's important
.
Um, it's just to keep a littlemore calm and and stick to the
facts yeah, I think that.

Speaker 2 (01:11:57):
Yeah, the first point on checking in with your
employees who are on the frontlines trying to keep abreast of
these developments and justgiving them some support, is,
like, definitely a great moveright now, for, given given how
I mean, it's not, it's not just,it's not just business owners
and c-level executives that arethat are being affected by this,

(01:12:18):
it's like real people inoperations and and and in in uh
legal roles that are justgetting absolutely hammered
right now from all directions,and so that's a great point,
emil.
The other piece I would second,on the data and visibility like

(01:12:39):
having your duty matrix at yourfingertips where you know all
of your products, theirclassifications, the countries
of origin, the duty rates andthe duties per unit, or some
understanding of how tariffsflow into your unit.
Economics is something that Ithink every C-level executive
wants to really be able tounderstand quickly.
So they're going to want someheuristic If I'm selling this

(01:13:01):
product for $1,000 a unit, I'mpaying, how much duties am I
paying on that and how is achange or some rate affecting my
margins?
That's kind of, I think, howevery exec wants to be able to
approach it, and that's actuallynot straightforward to get that
information and so you knowexecs are kind of sending their

(01:13:25):
teams off on these analysismissions to go and spin those
things up, but building a strongprocess around keeping that up
to date is really important.
I think you want to map out allthe options and there's dozens.
We've only talked about acouple, but there's a lot of
creative solutions and reallytrust your service providers to

(01:13:46):
come up with creative solutionsthat work for your business
center and are compliant.
It's probably it doesn't maybemy three.
I'll stick to three.

Speaker 4 (01:13:56):
I'll add one little anecdote, which will when I
don't have one piece of advice,which is I recently last week, I
saw an entrepreneur that iscurrently working in Doge and he
talked about a little miniatureproject that he and a couple
engineers worked on, where theymoved the login button on a
website that was somewhereburied in the middle of the page

(01:14:18):
within a bunch of other links,to the top right corner, where
every other login button is forevery other website on the
planet, and was told that itwould take 103 days, and then
got an engineer to do it in oneday.
And you don't hear about thosestories.
You hear about the stuffrelated to, like social security
that like sounds like fakealmost, and you hear about like

(01:14:41):
a lot of these things that areexaggerated or turned into
hysterical tweets basically, anda lot of people follow those
and they latch onto the reallyhysterical stuff and it ends up
in sibling group chats evensometimes.
But it's important for peoplenot to get stuck on those

(01:15:01):
hysterical points and, to Emil'spoint, to look at the data and
understand what's actuallyhappening.
Talk to your customs broker.
Your customs broker isresponsible for helping you with
this stuff, and so we're likegetting a real grounded
understanding of what's going onbefore making a decision is
exceptionally important to doingthis.

(01:15:23):
You know, to running a businessand especially when it comes to
being heavily manufacturingoriented, relying on import and
export and all the duties andtariffs that come with, you know
, with importing goods, staycalm and, you know, ride this
storm out for a little bitlonger before you make any moves
, unless you're relying on Chinaand then move to Mexico moves,

(01:15:52):
unless you're relying on china,and then move to mexico.

Speaker 1 (01:15:53):
So if I'm a logistics provider and what's kind of
like the one thing I should bedoing right now in response to
these tariff changes because wejust kind of talked about the
other side on the manufacturingside I'm just curious for those
that that play in the trade gameum, what would you recommend as
kind of the one thing thosefolks should be doing right now,
uh, as a kind of response tothe tariff changes?

Speaker 3 (01:16:19):
I mean, this is self-serving, of course, right,
but I would say technology, uh,it's a.
Technology is a thing that youknow and I don't.
You know, depending on whoyou're talking to.
We found a lot of not too techsavvy people, right, that we

(01:16:40):
talk to every now and then,right?
So I think technology AI isgoing to help, uh, whether it's
us or anyone anyone else, butyou, you gotta get your, you
know, your tools in place so youcan get the kind of speed and
efficiency that you're gonnaneed to deal with this right,
and I feel like it's just simplyno way you're gonna be able to

(01:17:01):
just cut it.
You know, cut it with, uh,simple Excel skills and whatnot,
right.
So you got to get your gametogether with some tech.
It's cheaper than ever and it'seasier than ever, I guess.
So that would be one advice,although it's self-serving to
some degree, but I do believethat this is something that, for

(01:17:22):
sure, is going to help peopledeal with this amount of change
and stuff that needs to be takencare of.

Speaker 2 (01:17:35):
Yeah, I realized.
I think I referred to Shapiro,but I think it's actually
Shipmunk that launched theirBonded Warehouse offering today.

Speaker 1 (01:17:43):
You did say Shipmunk.

Speaker 2 (01:17:44):
I did say Shipmunk.
You did well Okay thanks, but Ithink that's a great example of
logistics providers.
There are tens of thousands, ifnot hundreds of thousands of
them in North America.
I don't know if it's tens orhundreds, it's a lot.
A lot of them don't necessarilyhave trade advisory products and

(01:18:06):
so, again, I'm talking my bookhere.
But we can help companieslaunch trade advisory products
and I think that that examplefrom ShipMonk is a great example
of moving quickly to beresponsive to the market demand
for something that is morecustoms heavy, that they didn't

(01:18:26):
offer before, and in partnershipwith Livingston, I think it is.
I think that's an awesomeexample of hey, if you're a
freight forwarder that doesn'toffer duty drawback, we can help
white label a solution for that, and there's, I think, a lot
more appetite for all thesetariff saving and tariff

(01:18:47):
optimization or just even dutyvisibility.
In the first place, Looking atcustomers' ACE data and
understanding theirclassifications.
You know people want to bearmed with this data and I think
it's kind of a great time toexplore some of those service
line expansions service lineextensions.

Speaker 1 (01:19:14):
Let's say I could get you in a room tomorrow not me
but let's say you're in a roomtomorrow with Don and Howard and
you each have a uniqueperspective.
That is very relevant, givenhow close you are to the actual
impact of these tariffs and yourcustomers are like actively
dealing with the challenges thatcome with them.

(01:19:35):
What would you, what would belike the most important thing
for you, to get them tounderstand as they contemplate
how to move forward with policydecision-making?

Speaker 2 (01:20:01):
I'll jump in here.
So the number one thing I wouldsay is timing.
So the number one thing I wouldsay is timing, like providing a
timeline that can be aggressivebut gives companies an ability
to adjust and respond in the waythat they want.
Like that would be the numberone thing.
So if we want to reshorecertain industries or we want to

(01:20:23):
nearshore certain industries,well let's put in place some
timeline to to do that and someprocess for doing that.
And I think I think generallylike there's pretty bipartisan
support for some of that stuff.
I mean, the bidenadministration increased tariffs
on solar panels, electricvehicles and lithium-ion
batteries from china to 100percent and they increased steel

(01:20:44):
tariffs.
So it's like this isn'tnecessarily just a Republican
policy.
This has been going on for 10years now, almost eight years.
So let's get a timeline inplace to be able to make these
changes and then I think folkswill really really jump on it.

Speaker 3 (01:21:04):
Yeah, and I think to your, to your points just sort
of kind of piling up on that.
I think it's also in a perfectworld.
I would love to see a clearpicture of what the world that
you're trying to get us toactually kind of looks like.
I think right now, part of theproblem is that it's not clear

(01:21:26):
just what the plan is, but whatexactly is it that we're trying
to accomplish here?
Right, and obviously there's alot of the you know politics and
what's true and what's not trueand what you know what things
are or are not.
But I think right now, part ofthe problem is that I think if
we were all clear what thepicture of this great new world

(01:21:47):
is, I think everybody would bemore willing and able to kind of
, you know, get us there.
Right now it's just tooconfusing, like why are we doing
this?
I know it's hurting me, butit's like in any other war that
I think the US has fought in,like, okay, it's painful for a
while, but we can see why we'redoing this and what's the value

(01:22:07):
for all of us collectively to doit Right now.
I think that's very blurry.
It just seems like a bunch ofpiece in context going on, but
we don't know exactly.
Like the regular person, andeven some of us that are more in
the nitty gritty of things,it's still hard to see sometimes
what that picture looks like.

Speaker 1 (01:22:29):
Yeah, I mean that's leadership 101.
If you want buy-in, be veryclear with your vision.
That's a great point, Matt,anything you want to add on that
one?

Speaker 4 (01:22:42):
I love the vision piece, and like half your
podcasts or episodes are abouttalking about leadership anyway.
So yeah, I mean I like fullyagree with having a vision, or
understanding what the vision isand where this needs to go, and
I think people would be muchmore on board with it than
feeling like it's being decidedon a whim and everyone runs to

(01:23:03):
the left and all of a sudden, no, it feels like the boat's
tipping too far that way.
Hurry up, run to the right andthen the boat tips back the
other way.
So we just saw that with the90-day pause and as we get close
to the 90-day pause, do wethink we're going to have all
the deals in place by then?
Probably not, and so I wouldencourage more communication.

Speaker 1 (01:23:25):
And I'll go here, since you mentioned, you know,
half the podcasts are about this.
Let's say, you know for thenext generation of logistics
leaders that are tuning in,what's the lesson for them and
how each of your companies isnavigating this kind of volatile
, chaotic, um monumental momentI?

Speaker 4 (01:23:48):
I'll start.
I I got.
I've gotten the question from afew people about why we raised
money and we just, you know,announced this 12 million dollar
round uh, last week and westill had most, most of the
money left that that primarybacked us with in the seed round
.
And um I, we took that money on.
We've been growing reallyconsistently from pretty much

(01:24:09):
the beginning, but I knew thatat some point we'd run into a
rough patch and there'd besomething that would make things
a little bit rocky.
I thought the beginning of thisyear we'd be rolling in and
Trump would take office andthere'd be a lot of
communication around tariffs,but that they would not actually
happen.
I thought they would not happenand I laid out already what I

(01:24:31):
thought was kind of the backingof that, and so my perspective
as somebody that is going theventure route and raising
capital is to have more capital.
If you can get it, if you cantake it, if it's available, take
the capital, get the funding inplace, be smart about spending
it.
So I'm excited to get more swagfor the team and our customers,

(01:24:52):
but we're going to be smartabout how we spend this capital.

Speaker 1 (01:24:56):
You've got to stop connecting your fundraising to
the swag.
You'll see there's going to bemore swag coming soon.
It's the opposite of beingsmart about your money.

Speaker 4 (01:25:06):
No, but well, we've got a lot of it left, though
when are you going to make it?
We're going to make it bycharging people for the software
.

Speaker 1 (01:25:14):
No, I said where are you going to make?

Speaker 4 (01:25:15):
the swag.
I thought you were saying whereare we going to make the money?
Where are we going to make theswag?
Anywhere besides China, I guess.

Speaker 1 (01:25:29):
But yeah, but yeah, I don't know, that's, that's a
good problem for the slingshotteam to figure out for us
because they do a great job ofswag all right off the swag,
who's who's next?

Speaker 2 (01:25:36):
I think, uh, I the.
The one of the big lessons, Ithink, is it's actually
something that Matt's donereally well, which is like
staying level-headed andunderstanding that there's grand
pronouncements and negotiationsthat happen and you know, let's
.
Let's like wait and see wherethe chips actually fall, is
something that he's beenpounding the table on since

(01:25:57):
since Trump took office withevery turn of the tariffs, and I
think it's the way that I saythis in custom speak is like
let's wait and see what getsactually published in the
Federal Register.
It's like to say that whateverTrump tweets is not necessarily
what is actually going to happen.
And so when you're, it's easy toget distracted by the news

(01:26:18):
cycle, but finding the like,where the exact signal and where
the exact like industryknowledge is, is is that you
need to action on as anentrepreneur is not always easy,
and then the faster that youcan identify like what's a,
what's a good customer signal,what's a good industry signal
from a, from a false ornon-recurring signal or

(01:26:39):
extraneous signal, like that'sreally, uh, a good skill to
develop, and then then, yeah,you know we're, we're going to
announce our seed round soon.
Same same, same, same deal, Ithink, same philosophy, which is
that when you start to feel atrend coming, even if you're not
sure how representative it is,if you develop a belief in a

(01:27:01):
space like, jump on it becauseyou're, you might be one of very
few people seeing it, and we,you know.
That was why we started thisbusiness up a little over a year
ago, because we were startingto feel this tailwind even
before Trump came into office.

Speaker 4 (01:27:18):
It sounds like you just announced your seed round.

Speaker 1 (01:27:20):
I didn't announce it, it was a pre-announcement it
was like a tweet about tariffswithout actually you have to
check for this.
Wait for it to be in theregister in the news.

Speaker 2 (01:27:31):
Yeah, it's not in the register right now, you can't
react to it.

Speaker 1 (01:27:35):
That's the lesson.
It's just a tweet.

Speaker 3 (01:27:37):
It's just a tweet, uh I mean it is a great point
before you go, emile, I justit's.

Speaker 1 (01:27:41):
it was funny to me, as someone who spends a little
too much time watching twitter,how the stock market tanked and
everyone was like see what anidiot.
And then a day later it's backup and everyone's like, no,
you're the idiot.
And then a day later it's backdown.
Everyone's like whoa, who's theidiot?
So it's every day.
It's like stop talking with somuch finality when this is very

(01:28:01):
much a process ongoing.

Speaker 3 (01:28:03):
So go ahead, emil.
Much a process ongoing, so goahead.
Yeah, I feel like in three, youknow, almost four years, uh,
from now you are, we're gonnahave be having kind of the
ultimate contest of who was, whowas an idiot, right, uh, in
this game, um, and I was justgonna say that, you know, to
your previous question, uh, for,for kind of future leaders and

(01:28:24):
whatnot, I think think is Itotally agree with be patient,
wait until things actuallybecome true, but then be ready
to move really fast.
I think everything is justmoving at such speed these days,
whether it is technology andinnovation and AI and all that

(01:28:47):
stuff, that I think if you arenot ready to move fast the
moment, you know what, or youfeel like you know, you know
which direction is is the rightone for you, then you're, you
know you're probably not goingto have a chance anyway, right,
and I think you know I'm notgoing to announce any rounds
just yet, but I think that alsocomes with that right, it's make

(01:29:12):
sure that while you're waiting,you're getting ready to move
fast and use that time wisely tosay okay, if these are my
different scenarios, you know,if A, then this is how fast I'm
going to go in that direction.
If B, then this is how fast I'mgoing to go in that direction.
If B, then this is the path.
But be ready, because I feellike everything is just so much

(01:29:33):
faster right now than it used tobe, even just a year ago.

Speaker 1 (01:29:38):
Great perspective from each of you.
All right, I got a question forus to close with.
I want a prediction from eachof you 12 months from now.
What does the global tradelandscape look like?
Will the changes stick?
Will they escalate?
Will they reverse?
Who are the winners?
Who are the losers?
What are we going to see?

Speaker 3 (01:30:01):
Yeah, I'll start and this is kind of how we're,
without trying to reveal ourentire playbook, but this is how
we're kind of organizingourselves.
I think, in my opinion, it'svery likely that, you know, we
won't be talking about tariffsall that much, you know, in a

(01:30:22):
year, hopefully, right, I mean,we better not be.
I think again, justin and I,maybe a little bit more than
others, just because of thenature of our businesses, but I,
I believe that he will probablybe have quiet down quite a bit,
you know, between now and then,uh, in fact, we're building our

(01:30:45):
company to sort of takeadvantage of the situation right
now, but figuring that that'sjust kind of a temporary thing.
That is, it's, it's giving ustailwinds right now, but it's,
it's, it's not.
It cannot last all that much,right?
Um, so I would say that youknow, that's probably where

(01:31:06):
we're, what's gonna happen.
I think a lot is gonna lookexactly the same.
If you ask me, uh, you know,some, some items may have to
keep one way or another in termsof china and the us and what,
and everything in between, but Idon't know if, uh, hopefully,
right, all of this is worthsomething and we're gonna be

(01:31:26):
able to be better off for it.
I don't know right it's, it'sum, it's way too complicated and
it requires a lot of.
I don't know if this issomething that we're just gonna
get done by brute force.
Uh, there's gonna be somefinesse that will be needed in
the next few months.
So we'll be hearing about a lotof negotiation.
Hopefully, all the people havebeen talking about how great of

(01:31:51):
a negotiator they are.
We'll be able to prove it nowand show us how it's done, but
I'm not expecting a huge shifton any particular direction
between now and then, other thanjust Tariq's just quieting down
a little bit between now andthen, other than just tires just
quieting down a little bitbetween now and then.

Speaker 2 (01:32:12):
Yeah, I think that we'll see a lot of commitments
to build new manufacturing inNorth America, certainly, and
potentially in the US.
I think in a year from nowyou'll definitely see some.
Certainly.
I think NVIDIA announced agigantic investment today, so

(01:32:34):
you're going to see more ofthose over the next year and I
think you'll certainly see in ayear from now we'll be looking
back at a number of new tradedeals bilaterals and then also
some multilaterals, but thesethings take about a year.
Six, you know fastest ever islike six months on a on a
multilateral or bilateral tradedeal.

(01:32:55):
Um, so we'll, we'll just begetting some of those finalized
in a year from now.
Um, and uh, uh.
I think then we'll be doinglike cleanup on aisle five on
what happened to those shipmentsfrom 2025.
How do we go back and fix someof those entries or make sure
that we change some of ourDecker process to be more

(01:33:20):
responsive, moving forward, andI think that's kind of the world
that we'll be in a year fromnow and I think that's kind of
the world that we'll be in ayear from now.

Speaker 4 (01:33:30):
I agree with, I guess , both of those predictions.
My spin on it, I would say, isthat I think that we will have a
name for some new tradeagreements is going to be the
big thing a year from now.
So, like the USMCA being anupdate to NAFTA, but not still
being called NAFTA, we're goingto have the same thing with with

(01:33:52):
other trade agreements.
Whether it's going to be somebig global trade agreement that
that has Trump's name or spin onit.
I think there will be somethingbranded and tied to a quote,
unquote victory in these tradedeals, because I don't think
Trump wants to be known as theone that caused the stock market

(01:34:13):
to crash, and I think that'svery clearly tied to, you know,
wanting there to be somethingthat happened and came out of
this that's positive, and so Ithink that's going to be a new
name for a lot of these tradeagreements that we're going to
be talking about a year from nowor just having landed on that
gets finalized.

Speaker 1 (01:34:35):
Well, we'll see Any final thoughts before I let you
go.
I appreciate all of you givingme 90 minutes of your time and
sharing so much excellentinsight with our audience.
It's been great, thank you.

Speaker 2 (01:34:52):
It's great to learn from all of you.

Speaker 1 (01:34:56):
This was fun, and we'll be on the lookout for all
these rounds that we didn't talkabout here Sounds great Well
with that Freight Pod audience.
Thank you for tuning in andwe'll see you next week.
That's all you get forTerraTalk, see ya, thank you.

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