Ukraine: finance and economy, an insider’s view

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• Sergiy Nikolaychuk of Ukraine’s central bank offers an in-depth look at the country’s economy in wartime
• Can the good times last in the primary bond market?
• Real estate looks for refi rehab and direct lenders end up as owners

Sergiy Nikolaychuk is the deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s central bank. Appointed to the job in 2021, he has been at the heart of Ukraine’s financial system and economy throughout Russia’s invasion. We spoke to him in Vienna this week about how the NBU makes plans during wartime, its expectations for the conflict and how its economy and financial system has held up as well as its latest agreement with the IMF.

While Ukraine might not be able to come to the capital markets for now, bond issuers across different sectors are making the most of it. Issuance records both for individual borrowers and market sectors are tumbling just two weeks into the year. Issuers are suffering from FOMO, market participants tell us. But what else should they fear and can the good times in the bond market last? We find out.

Not every type of borrower is able to get into the market, however. Issuers from the beleaguered real estate sector have debt to refinance in the coming years but had a tough time borrowing last year. We look at the mounting problems for the industry in capital markets.

We also take a look at direct lenders who are increasingly taking the keys to the companies they have lent to that got into trouble. We look at how widespread this could become and the consequences for the direct lending market.