The HC Commodities Podcast

Chip War: How semiconductors became the new oil with Chris Miller Semi-conductors, microchips, are the new oil - the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. Today, military, economic, and geopolitical power are built on a foundation of computer chips. This has only accelerated with the emergence of AI. Yet, the supply chain is incredibly concentrated with just a handful of countries and companies dominating. As with oil ...

Today, we do a deep dive into the role and challenges of a transaction lawyer in the energy transition. And why lawyering in the energy transition is lawyering on hard mode? What are the  sources of complexity? What are the pain points about getting a project developed? How has current policy volatility impacted the energy transition particularly in the US? And what might the future hold? Our guest is Daniel Anziska.Daniel is an in...

Today, we investigate the intersection of the energy transition, critical minerals and defense. As with commodities, warfare is also going through rapid and profound change, with the electrification of defense over the last 20 year. Batteries proliferate the battlefield and the energy transition is impacting national security. We are seeing the shift from capital assets to small, cheap weapons such as drones that can have profound ...

In this episode, we discuss the impact of conflict and war on commodities markets through the lens of a brand new book by Dennis Voznesenski: War and Wheat. Dennis is an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and prior to that at Rabobank. Thoroughly researched, War and Wheat tells the story of how the agricultural markets fared during World War I, World War II and the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and el...

In 2024 the Lithium market saw huge price drops related to oversupply, a slowing EV adoption rate globally, as well as macroeconomic headwinds. Is this a pause or a more structural challenge? What is the long-term demand picture? How does geopolitics fit within that? Does technological change threaten the outlook? And in such a volatile market, why is risk management essential? Our guest is Caspar Rawles, Chief Operating Officer a...

Today, we return to the subject of commodity supply chain policy, permitting and regulation and policy in the US, with the One Big Beautiful Bill going through reconciliation. Less public, but no less momentous, we cover  the Seven County Infrastructure Supreme Court decision, which may herald Sea change in how new energy and mining projects can get underway to meet both the growing energy demand but also the need for robust and re...

Today, we return to the subject of investing in commodities, this time from an equities angle. How has the sector performed over the last couple of decades and how much diversification does it offer?  How do you analyze and discover value in the sector? And are investors returning and how best to navigate investing in such a rapidly evolving sector? Our guest is Matt Zabloski, founder and chief investment officer of Delbrook Capita...

Today, we return to energy and AI. What will AI mean in terms of global energy consumption up to 2030 and beyond? And could that be offset by efficiencies and transformations generated by AI in our daily lives? Could AI even accelerating the energy transition? To do that, we are discussing International Energy Agency's latest paper -  Energy and AI (https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai). A comprehensive review and deep dive in...

We discuss the trilemma facing the energy and commodities markets -  between security, affordability, and sustainability, what now matters in policy and investment decisions? In the previous US administration and in Europe, sustainability was a key policy driver. Under the new Trump administration, and indeed globally since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, security has come to the forefront. How should organizations think about these ...

If uncertainty is the new normal – how can the commodities markets and participants adapt? What does that mean for costs, supply chains and people.  In May we held our latest Live Event in London, in partnership with ITFA. The event was hosted by Aon, with additional sponsorship by Atradius, Brown Brothers Harriman, Coface, Natixis Partners, Pole Star Global, The Mercury Group and RESCOM. Our panellists debated themes including t...

Today, we discuss credit risk and stress testing in volatile and uncertain times. What is the function of credit risk within the commodities sector? How crucial is it? What does good look like - how best to organize, lead and deliver it? And what do we mean by stress testing? And how can organizations make themselves more robust for the future? Our guest is Jan-Peter Onstwedder. Jan-Peter has been head of commodity risk groups for ...

Today, we return to the subject of Renewable Natural Gas, which could be as much as 15 % of global natural gas supply by 2050, offering significant advantages both in its carbon intensity as well as driving a powerful circularity, capturing waste methane that would otherwise go into the atmosphere, driving biodiversity and providing significant optionality in trading. What is RNG? Where does it sit today in terms of  global policy ...

Today we return to the oil market, a market that is in flux, both from a traditional supply and demand picture, but that is now also embroiled in geopolitics, an uncertain global trade environment and a potential recession. Is oil going lower for longer? And what about volatility? The last month or so has seen a dramatic return of volatility and associated results for traders, positive and negative. Is that set to continue? Our gue...

Since 2017, the West’s awareness of its strategic vulnerabilities in critical minerals has been growing – yet in reality little progress has been made. How have various policies progressed or hindered the development of a domestic supply chain in the US and the West more broadly? What is the new Trump administration's approach to critical minerals? How is that impacting former efforts like the Inflation Reduction Act? And what does...

Today we're releasing an episode outside of our normal schedule on tariffs and those on metals in particular. What tariffs are in place on metals and critical minerals? What has been the response particularly from China? What is the legal underpinning of those tariffs and how does that create uncertainty? What are the administration’s goals? And what does it mean for contracts? What does it mean for M&A? And what does it mean for m...

Today we're releasing an episode outside of our normal schedule on tariffs and those on metals in particular. What tariffs are in place on metals and critical minerals? What has been the response particularly from China? What is the legal underpinning of those tariffs and how does that create uncertainty? What are the administration’s goals? And what does it mean for contracts? What does it mean for M&A? And what does it mean for m...

In Part 2, we continue our discussion on navigating the new Trump Administration. Why are metals and critical minerals central to the administrations agenda? What does it mean to prioritize security over economics and sustainability?  How to manage the inherent internal conflicts between co-existing policies and statements and what the trading opportunities might be for the energy & commodities sector.  We welcome back with Nick Ku...

The commodities sector faces a new and uncertain world.  In this episode, we look at how to understand and how to navigatethe new Trump administration and its impact on domestic and global markets, particularly around energy and commodities using analogies from history.  What is signal…and what is noise.  Our guest is Nick Kumleben. Nick is the energy and commodities director at Greenmantle, the advisory firm founded by Niall Fergu...