Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
Welcome to The History Guy podcast Counterfactuals. What is a
counterfactual in the context of studying history, It is a
kind of analysis where we examined what might have happened
had historical events gone differently as a thought experiment. The
goal is to learn and understand history as it is
by talking about what it could have been as a
(00:27):
twist on the historical stories that we tell on the
History Guy YouTube channel. This is a series of podcasts
that dwell on that eternal question what if. I'm Josh,
a writer for the YouTube channel and son of the
History Guy. If you're a fan of the channel, you
already know Lance the History Guy himself. To liven up
our discussions on what might have happened, we have invited
(00:48):
Brad wagnan history officionado and a longtime friend of The
History Guy to join us. Remember that if you'd like
to support us, you can find us on Patreon, YouTube
and locals dot com. Join us as we discuss what
deserves to be remembered and what might have been. On
today's episode, we talk about one of the most important
(01:08):
naval events in modern history, the pivotal Battle of Tsushima,
fought during the Russo Japanese War. This battle was crucial
in the rise of Japan as a military and imperial power,
setting the stage for huge parts of the twentieth century.
But what might have happened if it all went different?
Without further ado, let me introduce the history guy.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
There are many battles in history would say change the
course of a war, but there are some whose impact
is actually much larger than that. There are battles so
significant that they changed the course of empires for generations,
some so important that they impact events half a world away.
Some that so transform our understanding of the nature of
warfare that they turn all planning and prediction for the
(01:57):
future on its head. The battles like that are usually
pretty well remembered, even amongst a population generally ignorant of history.
Battles that important are heavily studied and well known, but
some are surprisingly forgotten, or at least forgotten outside the
area in which the battle was fought. And one such
battle was fought May twenty seventh and twenty eighth of
nineteen oh five. The Battle of Tsushima is a largely
(02:21):
obscure battle in an almost forgotten war that was overshadowed
by the much larger world wars of the twentieth century,
and yet the Battlesushima is perhaps one of the most
influential naval battles in history, and it deserves to be remembered.
By the start of the twentieth century, conflict between Japan
and Russia in the Far East was virtually unavoidable. Both
(02:43):
were expanding empires with competing aims. Both more and more
aggressively considered Manchuria and Korea to be within their spheres
of influence, and both mistrusted the other based on race.
Under Zar Nicholas the Second, the Far East was the
focus of Russian territorial desires. Russia sent over one hundred
and seventy thousand troops to Manchuria as part of the
international intervention during the nineteen hundred Boxer Rebellion, and after
(03:07):
the rebellion most of those troops remained. Russia, considered one
of the world's great powers, was considerably improving its ability
to move troops to the Far East with the construction
of the still incomplete Trans Siberian Railway. The Russians had
leased the warm water port of Port Arthur from the
Chinese and stationed a powerful naval squadron there. Although the
base was largely to counter British influence in the Far East,
(03:29):
it was seen by the Japanese as a direct threat,
and Russia was negotiating timber and mineral leases on the
Korean Peninsula, which they increasingly saw as being their sphere
of influence. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, Japan
was still a feudal state, but the Tokugawa Shogunate collapsed
in eighteen sixty seven and Japan embarked upon a new
(03:50):
era that, rather than rejecting for an influence, embraced modernization
and reform. This became known as a Meiji Revolution. The
word Meiji means enlightened rule, and the goal was combined
modern advances with traditional Eastern values. The Meiji period resulted
in many political and economic reforms and transformed the Japanese
(04:11):
economy and industry, but it also reformed the military, introducing
not just Western weapons and tactics, but universal conscription. When
combined with the cultural spirit of the Samurai, Japan created
a powerful modern imperial army and navy, and a very
militaristic society. As the nation grew, the leadership was keen
(04:33):
to cultivate a sphere of influence that matched other great powers,
and they, like Russia, sought as their destiny to dominate
Korea and Manchuria. Between August of eighteen ninety four and
April of eighteen ninety five, Japan had easily defeated China
in a conflict over influence in Korea. The victory in
the First Sino Japanese War established Japan as the pre
(04:55):
eminent power in the Pacific. The conflicting interest in Manchuria
and Korea made armed conflict virtually unavoidable, and while US
President Theodore Roosevelt tried to negotiate a peaceful solution, the
Japanese eventually grew tired with the slow pace of the negotiations,
and in February of nineteen oh four declared war on Russia.
The Japanese launched a surprise attack on the Russian fleet
(05:17):
at Port Arthur before the Russians had even gotten word
of the declaration of war, to the surprise of the West,
who thought Russia the superior power. Most of the actual
fighting in the Russo Japanese War favored the Japanese. The
Japanese were able to first bottle up the Russian fleet
in Port Arthur and eventually capture the fortress. For its part,
(05:37):
Russia fought mostly for delay, needing time to move reinforcements
across the vast Russian expanse on the Trans Siberia Railroad,
which was not yet fully complete. With its Pacific fleet neutralized,
Russia decided to send the bulk of its large Baltic
fleet to the theater, but that was no mean feat. Britain
would not allow the use of the Suez Canal, and
even most Russian allies, like France, were technically neutral in
(06:00):
the conflict, and there were strict limits on what aid
they could provide to a belligerent. The fleet left in
August of nineteen oh four, and after an eighteen thousand
mile journey all around the tip of Africa, was approaching
Japan in May the next year. The fleet was exhausted
and morale was low after the long and difficult voyage.
(06:20):
The plan was to make for the port of Vladivostok
to join the remains of the Russian Pacific Squadron, but
that required that they passed through the Sea of Japan.
May twenty seventh, nineteen oh five, the exhausted Russian ships
ran into the Japanese navy as they tried to enter
the Sea of Japan through the Sushimi Strait, located midway
between the Japanese island of Kyushu and the Korean Peninsula.
(06:43):
It was an uneven battle. The Russian ships were in disrepair,
the crews exhausted, the decks were covered with coal for
the voyage. The Japanese not only had more ships, but
there were more modern, had larger caliber guns, used newer
explosive rounds, and had fresh crews. The first to go
down was the Russian battleship Olsubaya. She was the first
modern armored battleship to be sunk by gunfire alone. The
(07:06):
Russian battleship Borodino exploded when it took a direct hit
to its magazine. In the initial fight, the Russians lost
a total of four battleships. The Japanese pressed a night
attack using destroyers and torpedo boats. The Russian fleet became
fragmented and several more ships were disabled when the Japanese
fleet caught up with what remained of the squadron in
the morning. The Russians, realizing they were outgunned, surrendered only
(07:30):
three Russian vessels managed to escape to Vladivostok. In the action,
the Russians lost seven battleships and fourteen other ships sunk,
with another seven ships captured. While the Japanese fleet had
sustained some damage, they had only lost three torpedo boats sunk.
The lopsided victory effectively ended the war. The significant losses
(07:51):
and increasing opposition at home forced Russia to super piece.
Theodore Roosevelt offered to mediate, and the war officially ended
with a treaty signed in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, September fifth
of nineteen one. Russia agreed to vacate Manchuria and to
officially recognize Korea as within the Japanese sphere of influence.
Japan officially annexed Korea in nineteen ten. For his efforts,
Theodore Roosevelt was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
The Battle of.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Tsushima was the only decisive naval battle in history fought
primarily between modern steel battleship fleets. It was the first
naval battle in naval history in which radio played a
critical role, and it was the last time in naval
history that ships of the line of the defeated fleet
surrendered on the high seas. The lopsided loss so significantly
impacted Russian prestige in Europe that it impacted war planning
(08:37):
for places like Prussia and Austro Hungary. And while it
would be an overstatement to say that the Battle of
Sushima caused the First World War, it so shifted the
balance of power in Europe that it made that war
much more likely. The success of the larger caliber guns
of the Japanese fleet convinced the British that battleships with
bigger guns were more valuable than the mixed caliber batteries
that had dominated naval thinking to that point, and that
(08:58):
would give rise to a revolution in battleship building that
started with the launch of HMS Dreadnought in nineteen oh six,
and then that would lead to a naval arms race
that increased military spending in Europe by nearly fifty percent
and greatly contributed to the militarism that would eventually lead
to the First World War. The significant losses of the
(09:19):
Russo Japanese War were a large driver of the dissatisfaction
that drove the Russian Revolution of nineteen oh five, which
forced Tzara Nicholas the second to make political concessions and
promulgate a new constitution in nineteen oh six, and that
unrest and the resulting government oppression would then drive the
forces that in the Russian Revolution of nineteen seventeen would
dismantle the monarchy and give rise to the Soviet Union.
(09:41):
The lopsided Japanese victory established Japan as a world power,
but also strengthened the hand of the militarists in Japan
and set Japan on a path of trying to dominate
all of Asia, and that would eventually set them at
odds with the United States and European powers that had
an interest in the Far East, like Great Britain and
the Netherlands. What's more, the Japanese were dis satisfied with
the terms of the Treaty of Portsmouth, and they largely
(10:02):
blamed the United States, increasing tension between the two. Russian
participation in the Far East and the Second World War
was largely designed around regaining the territory and influence that
was lost in the Battle of Portsmouth, and thus the
Battle to Shima set the stage for the Pacific Conflict
in the Second World War. The Battle of Tsushima not
only decisively ended a conflict between great powers of the world,
(10:26):
greatly enhancing the reputation of one and diminishing another. It
changed the balance of power in Europe. It so changed
understanding military technology that it led to a worldwide naval
arms race, and it set the stage for the events
that would eventually bring the great powers into conflict. Yet again,
the largely forgotten Battle of Tsushima, more than any other
(10:46):
single event, presaged the world wars.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
Now for the fun part, where I the history guy
himself and Brad Wagnan discussed what might have happened if
it all went differently. So today we're doing something a
bit different than what we did last week. And as
with all counterfactuals, it has some advantages and some difficulties.
This one, I think has There are a lot of
ways that this specific event could have gone differently that
(11:14):
might have had very different impacts on the world, which
is a little different than what we were talking about
last time. We kind of started talking about the kind
of idea of how humans organized. But I think that's
what I mean, that's something great about this podcast, right
that we get to talk about either one of those.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Yes, definitely, this is a pivotal battle in what could
be said to be a pivotal war, and so you
can actually talk about, you know, how things could be
different in a very concrete way.
Speaker 3 (11:44):
This is just a sort of a way society organizing itself.
Speaker 2 (11:48):
But those are all interesting in terms of counterfactuals, right,
and they help us to understand the history.
Speaker 4 (11:53):
Yeah, so if you're not looking for variety, yes you're
the wrong place. I'm sorry, I hate to say it, but.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Yeah, absolutely, you know, this one is such an interesting battle,
partially because it went it was so one sided. I mean,
there are few battles that go as one sided as
this one did. And so when you're talking about counterfactuals,
I mean the big hump is how does this one
go differently?
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It is.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Yeah, if you just go onto Google and say could
the Russians have won Sushima?
Speaker 3 (12:24):
What Google Ai is probably gonna tell you.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
No, they got their butts womped badly, they lost their
whole you know that there was But that's not really
fair because that all takes us to the context of
the Battle of Sushima. But the Battle of Sushima is
a battle the Russians didn't want to fight, so that
the key to victory at Sushiba was not to have
been at Sushima. And I mean, you know, should the
(12:48):
Russians have sent the Baltic fleet at all? Should they
have sent the Baltic fleet without having clear you know,
repair facilities along the way. If they had made some
sort of arrangement in China or Formosa or something like
that for the fleet having gone halfway around the world
to stop to get better coal, to refit, to repair,
to you know, recover from tropical illness, et cetera, to
re arm, then it could have been a completely different battle.
(13:11):
So so I mean Sushima as a battle was probably
not winnable. But what Sushima was, which was that conflict
between the Russian Baltic Fleet and the Japanese fleet.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
Could that have gone differently? Of course it could.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
Uh, you know, it was a battle that was fought
completely in the way that best suited the Japanese and
that was that was.
Speaker 3 (13:28):
Brilliance on there.
Speaker 5 (13:29):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
But I mean the reason it's so lopsided is because
you're just here to you know, some battle are going
to lose if you fight that battle.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
They had to have fought a different battle.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (13:38):
Now, one of the things, you know, just referring back
to the introduction. It's interesting to me that this war
is virtually a footnote in history, especially in the West,
and yet it does signal a seismic shift in the
Far East. It is definitely a time in which, you know,
(14:00):
thirty years before Sushima, Japan was largely in the Graian society,
in the midst of the Meigi Restoration, which could have
turned out very differently, and a nation that had no
real heavy industry in less than half a century becomes
(14:22):
a major player in the Pacific. And that's where I
think that Tsushima it kind of gets it gets short changed,
I think when major conflicts get covered, but it really is.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
Quite major, it is.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
The interesting thing is Europe was sure that Russia would
winness easily, So I mean, this really does shift a
change in Japan, and that does completely change the trajectory.
So I mean, you know, in the simple sense, if
you want to talk about counterfactuals, you know, absent into
the Russo Japanese War, then the Pacific.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Could have been quite different if Russia had won.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
Is Europe assumed that they would and just simply prove that,
you know, that the Asian powers were secondary to European powers.
Possibly Japan never militarizes. If Japan never militarized, is no
war on the Pacific.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
You know, possibly Russia never has.
Speaker 2 (15:11):
The nineteen oh five revolution, which means that they possibly
never have the October Revolution, which means that you don't
have a communist Russia.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
You never have the peace packed with Germany. You know
what I mean?
Speaker 2 (15:21):
This war could say it's very easily to look at
this war and say that, you know, the Second World War.
I mean, it's impact on the First World War is
maybe less, but in terms of the Second World War,
then maybe the Second World War never occurs, or Russia
never collapses during the First World War.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
Although I did I did see some arguments that this
might have helped. I think it's hard to say that
this would have avoided World War One, but I did
see some argument to say that it bolded the Central
Powers because first of all, Russia's navy is totally destroyed.
I mean literally that every every battleship they have is sunk,
and I think I think every single one is sunk
(16:01):
at this battle. Well it's sunk in this war. Some
of them weren't sunk at this battle, but they ultimately
it totally rearranges power in Eastern Europe, and this this
guy argued that the essentially that it made it certain
that the Central Powers would challenge Russia and challenge Russia
(16:22):
in the Balkans because they saw it as a significant
sign of weakness.
Speaker 3 (16:26):
No, that's a fair point.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Yeah, And you know, one of the things you can
say about is what if what if I just didn't
send the fleet? What if you know, what if the
two guys looked at each other and said, this is
a ridiculous idea.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Try to send our fleet all the way around the world.
They're going to be they're going.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
To be exhausted and that of coal and when they
get there, and the Japanese are going to think them all. So,
I mean, in the end, the war was fought and
lost on land anyway, So what if Russia still loses
the Russo Japanese War they just don't send their fleet
to get sunk while losing the Russo Japanese War, Then
does that fleet make a difference if that fleet's intact
and might that have deterred you know, the the ACXIS attacks.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
And you know, it's also easy to see in terms
of a counterfactual because really kind of what happens in
the First World War. You know, the Germans are planning
that it takes forever for Russia to mobilize, and you know,
what if the result of the war, or the result
of a loss in the war or whatever, what if
the result turns out that the Russians modernized their military,
I mean, then that could drastically impact you know, what goes.
(17:23):
It might have caused a war to start earlier, or
it might have Germany might not have been willing to
mobilize on behalf of Austro Hungary in terms of the
Balkans because they knew that Russia was too powerful and adversary.
So I mean, there's so many ways that this war
really could have changed the major events that are coming
in the century.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
Because it's not just that they lose the manpower and
the ships. I mean, it was a significant loss of
prestige because it made Russia. It made Russia just look like,
I mean, like a joke. It wasn't just I mean,
even if I feel like if this battle had been
more even handed, that wouldn't have been as bad. But
I mean, this was this a level of defeat that
is seldom seen. They were just absolutely I mean, they
(18:05):
were dominated.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
With this anticipation that the you know, the big Russian
fleet showing up was going to easily defeat Japan. Yeah,
and so so this was it was a major It
was it showed that Russia was a paper tiger, and
being a paper tiger certainly could have had a large
impact on who fights the First World War. Certainly it
has an impact later because that is part of what
causes Russia to collapse and become the Soviet Union that
(18:29):
we're saying during the Second World War.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Yeah, and in World War One, can you imagine Germany
has a very significant northern coast on the Bolting and
when Russians went into East Prussia during the beginning of
World War One, where they actually had a fair amount
of success to begin with with, you know, the knowledge
(18:52):
that they had a functional fleet on the coast that
could provide naval support. Then there might have been and
some you know, there be some interesting counterfactuals where Germany
is fighting for its life because East Prussia is lost,
or the armies in East Prussia ground to a halt,
(19:13):
and a Soviet navy, even if it is somewhat older
ships is able to is able to make a difference.
At that point, you know, the Kaiser has to figure out, well,
which direction am I going to send my fleet? Am
I going to challenge Britain? Or do I withdraw and
turn the Baltic into a battle ground.
Speaker 2 (19:34):
And I mean there was naval war in the Baltic
in the First World War with the Russian fleet, So
if it was much larger Russian fleet, it could have
made a huge difference. And of course, you know, part
of the reason, I mean Germany was building very hard
on its fleet, trying to be able to challenge the
Royal Navy. So having a larger allied fleet there certainly
could have changed how successful Russia could have been, and
(19:55):
in some ways their defeat and their naval defeats in
the Baltic, you know, as part of what drove the
collapse of the Russian armies and then into the October Revolution.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
There were a couple other interesting connections to the World
War One naval war that I kind of found some
people talking about, and one of them was that the
Japanese victory led the British who you know, there'd been
the Anglo Japanese alliance before before that led the British
to understands that the Japanese could protect the East. And
so with the British understanding that, they were able to
(20:25):
move more ships to Europe and as they did that
that exacerbated the the arms race between the Germans and
the British because they both had these policies of how,
you know, how many ships they needed to have the advantage,
and when Britain brings in a bunch of ships from
the East, that that just sped it up and made
it so that, you know, the Germany's Germans, the Germans
(20:45):
have to build more ships, which means the British has
to build warships. And it just kind of helped feed
into that positive feedback loop. And that's that's kind of
an interesting way to look at it. I also saw that,
you know, this is one of the first modern modern
at the time of course battles between these these steel
holed fleets, and one of the things they learned was
(21:06):
how that kind of battle works out and what kind
of ships were best. One of the things they saw
was that the Japanese ships, which were faster and better
armed with heavier guns. You know, the Europeans had this
idea that you had mixed calibers on your battleships. That
they essentially saw that that wasn't really valuable. That you
wanted the biggest guns you could get on your ship,
and you wanted all of them to be that biggest gun,
(21:28):
because that was that was kind of what they saw
at that at Tsushima as effective. There was a there
was a quote from a guy from a British observer
who said, you know, when the twelve inch guns are firing,
you don't even notice the ten inch guns. No matter
how many of them are shooting you, you don't care
because the twelve inch are so effective. And so that
changed how they started building ships, which impacted say the
(21:51):
the the HMS Dreadnought, but it also led the Germans
to be cautious about engaging in a major fleet battle.
And so this battle might have impacted they because neither
one of them wanted a Tsushima, you know, neither one
of them wanted to march their fleet out and have
it kid absolutely wrecked by the other one. And so
it might have led to some of the caution that
(22:12):
we saw in the major you know, between the major
powers in that war. And that's kind of an interesting
and interesting take. I think to say that we learned
so much about it that it might have really told
us how we were going to battle with those fleets,
and in fact led us to those fleets essentially sitting
in harbor for the whole war, you know, with only
Jutland as the real major naval battle in the Atlantic.
Speaker 4 (22:34):
I like the possible counterfactual first one where there's an
alternate timeline where the British and the Japanese don't form
the alliance of eighteen I think ninety five, and the
British decide that having a client state essentially or a
proxy state Japan, perhaps they should you know, pick another power.
(22:59):
And they they almost did in eighteen eighty five. They
really were backing China heavily in the First Sino Japanese War.
But you know, it became fairly obvious that China was
not the winner in this one, and so Britain needed
a more reliable in the region. And you know, as
a precursor to World War One, those danged entangling alliances,
(23:24):
the French and the Russians, you know, had they not
been had you know, had an agreement that Britain felt
that they needed to somehow counter ballance. You know, there's
certainly yeah, there's that, that's a that's a that's a
path that I think is ripe for speculation. But the
fact is the Japanese did They essentially copied the Royal
(23:47):
Navy down to the uniforms as well as the signaling.
So you know, yeah, those were two good friends. And
the production you know, the production of the Japanese battleships
or well they were actually British battleships.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
We Japan was not unimportant in the First World War. Actually,
Japanese submarines. People don't know this. Japanese. Japan sent submarines
to the Mediterranean during the First World War, you know,
on behalf of the Allys. But one of the things
that Japan being part of the Allies was in the
First World War is that it kicked out the Germans
from their bases. Yeah, and you know that essentially made
(24:24):
the German Pacific Fleet irrelevant. And so if Japan had
not won in the Battle of Tsushima, if they not
won in the Russo Japanese War, then maybe Japan doesn't
play the role that it plays in the First World War.
Who doesn't do that, then, you know, who says where
Japan might have gone by the time of the Second
World War.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Well, because maybe then there are you know, German provinces,
German territories in the East, which by by World War Two,
I don't I don't know if the Germans held onto anything, No,
because they but they had several at the time.
Speaker 5 (24:57):
Yeah, they lost those largely during the First World War.
Speaker 4 (24:59):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Singdaal, the Admiralty, Admiralty Islands, the Marshals
and parts of Micronese.
Speaker 1 (25:07):
There was a German Samoa for a while around that time.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
But yeah, yeah, I believe there was another island because
Ziedler Harbor was was Zayd Harbor where is that? That
was New Guinea, right, But yes, I mean they had,
uh you know, and we've had other episodes to talk
about those those German colonies there. So those are lost
in the in the First World War and those German colonies,
(25:31):
you know, perhaps if the Russo Japanese war had gone differently,
then perhaps Germany would have been better prepared to defend
those colonies in the First World War, if they still
had colonies in the Pacific and the Second World War,
what would that have meant? But going back to something else,
that came up that it's kind of interesting to say
we did learn or the world learned a lot about
naval combat from the Battle of Sushima and about what
(25:52):
to do with these metal battleships, and so what if
the Russians had simply avoided the battle and said there's
no point in us sitting a fleet around the world.
What if the wars fought on land and not has
nothing to do with the Battle Tsushima? Then does it
change history anyway simply because we don't have that battle
to learn from. It's interesting because we have these you
have these crazy, steep, punky looking battleships of the era,
(26:15):
and this is the really only good time where they
going to just kind of take those out and really
make a huge old ffe out of it.
Speaker 1 (26:20):
Yeah, it's it's incredible how much ships changed now at
the beginning of the at the beginning of the nineteenth century,
they were they were still wouldn't hold masted ships, and
by by by nineteen oh four here, I mean, that's
they've been totally replaced by these steel ships with these
huge guns that were essentially unimaginable, you know, fifty years beforehand.
And it's it's crazy how how much that changed, and
(26:42):
no one, no one had. In fact, by by the
time of this battle, the only person, the only people
who had any experience in the battle were the where
the Japanese commanders who had been fighting, you know, the
Russian Eastern Fleet the Russian pacifically and the Russian commanders
who had been defeated it in the Pacific there and
(27:03):
so that that was that was maybe one of the
one of the reasons why the Japanese did so well
here is that the Russian commanders of that fleet had
never fought a major fleet action like that. But it
does make you wonder if we don't have Sushima, does
that mean the major fleet action where we learn about
these ships is that coming World War One and instead
of just Jutland, we have, you know, some absolutely crazy
(27:23):
battle between the German.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
And British fleet.
Speaker 5 (27:26):
Everybody was predicting what's going to.
Speaker 1 (27:27):
Happen yeaheah, yeah, and it's interesting to think about.
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Yeah, I don't think that, uh yeah. And just to
just to make sure to reinforce this, in nineteen oh six,
the creation of the mus dread not changed obsoleted the
entire navy of every single downtry in the World almost.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
Sort of a lot of those battleship still fought in
the First World War.
Speaker 5 (27:52):
But I mean it did. I mean, Dreadnought changed you know,
how people saw ships. It's certainly true.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
But part of that was Sushima, which which essentially taught
you that all those mid age weapons and all that stuff.
You know, battleship used to in Bressel with weapons of
all sorts of calibers, they different deliberately use different calibers
because that way, when you were ranging, you could tell
which splashes where your splash as opposed to the battery
next to you, and all that all that went away
because they found out in Sushima essential only the big
batteries counted. So it is fair to say that Dreadnought
(28:17):
changed everything. It's also fair to say that part of
that was experienced from Tsushima. And so do we go
into the First World War with very different battleships and
if we do, does you know, does that change the war?
Speaker 5 (28:27):
It wasn't largely a naval war.
Speaker 4 (28:30):
Now there's another there's another possible counterfactual that I think
would be interesting to explore, and that would be what
if the what if Makarov the Russian admiral is not killed.
And what if the Russian fleet in Port Arthur actually
makes a credible enough showing that the Japanese have second
(28:52):
thoughts and decide to withdraw, and Manchuria and Port Arthur
remained under Russian control and Russia does not take the
diplomatic hit to its reputation.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
I mean, well, essentially, that's where Russia wins the Russo
Japanese War. And there's there's I mean, if if Japan's
defeated in the Russo Japanese War, does Japan become less
militarizeders become more militarized? Is there a chance to they
and if they do, what does that mean for the
First World War? And what does that mean for the
Second World War? So Tho's a good questions. But one
(29:32):
of the things that's interesting is that that war was
not as well lopsided as as it looked, especially to
the Japanese people. I mean, in the end, when peace
is negotiated, which was actually negotiated by Teddy Roosevelt, but
when peace is negotiated, the Japanese people feel like they
have been burned in this peace treaty. They like, this
is not their we brutally won every part of this war,
(29:52):
and now we're you know, we're having big concessions and
we're not getting everything we want. And that was partly
because the propaganda, which was not a typical the time.
The propaganda had told them that they were winning more
than they really were, which that was.
Speaker 5 (30:05):
True throughout World War War two.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
That's how everybody talked to each other, right, I mean,
the Germans thought they were winning until the day that
they lost.
Speaker 5 (30:11):
And so that there's some argument that Japan militarized more.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Because they felt like in the negotiation for the treaty
to end the Russo Japanese War that everybody had ganged
up on them to protect Russia. And so, I mean
it's very I mean, the whole diplomatic thing is very,
very fussy here. So what if the Battle of Tsushima
had not been so one sided that when the peace came,
even if it came to the same peace treaty, that
(30:36):
when the peace came, the Japanese people felt more justified
in the way that the peace treaty was signed, then
it's that a different Japan. And does that affect the
First World War? Does that affect the Second World War?
Because all of this is part of the process of
Japan militarizing, was at the same time as part of
the process of Russia collapsing eventually into the Soviet Union.
Speaker 5 (30:55):
I mean, and could you change those trajectories where those
trajectories set.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
There's certainly things here that would have impacted the way
that people were seeing the societies in both of those cultures,
and both of those are things that have massive impacts
later in the twentieth century.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
Because this you know, this war was expensive for everybody.
Speaker 3 (31:12):
It was.
Speaker 1 (31:12):
It was hard on the Japanese people. It was very
hard on the Russian people, and so it's it's harder
to imagine.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Suck for the Koreans too, but the man Surios, the
people that were stuck in the middle of it.
Speaker 5 (31:22):
Yeah, it didn't have a very happy time either.
Speaker 1 (31:24):
But you know, there was I've seen some argument that
you know, if the Japanese had lost it as dramatically,
even even even lost to battle as dramatically a say Tsushima,
that I mean, that could have led to you know,
a change of regime essentially because they were I mean,
I mean, that's that's well, that's essentially what happens in Russia.
If not directly caused. It's at least a step. It
was a It was a significant factor in the nineteen
(31:45):
oh five revolution. It was not the not at all
the only factor in the nineteen seventeen revolutions. Yeah, so
it certainly played played a part there. And so you know,
if that's if the Russians are able to win it,
you know, do we That's that's where we talked about this,
this idea that maybe they're able to hold hold together.
I mean, one of the problems with with Russia as
it's collapsing is that the csars just lose confidence, the
(32:06):
people lose confidence in the czar. And so I mean
you could see that happening in Japan as well. I
mean that they have the populace that was as much demanding,
you know, success, and as you said, mad about the
peace treaty. And that's an interesting take that they I
understand why they would think that way, because, I mean,
you know, this is the Sino Japanese War. You know,
(32:26):
the French and the Russians, the Europeans came in directly
and essentially scrapped the peace treaty that Japan wanted and
forced them into a treaty that really really kind of
screwed Japan, and so I can see why they were
maybe sensitive to this idea of these other European powers
and stuff coming in and not treating them as equals.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Well everybody, you know, I thought they were a second
rate power, So you can see why they you know,
they felt like they had proven themself.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
Yeah, and it is.
Speaker 2 (32:52):
But you mentioned that the tsar, I mean, monarchies did
not survive the First World War in terms of absol
could even the British monarchy, it was really just a
figurehead by that point, except in Japan, right, that's true.
I mean, what major power in the Second World War
had an absolute had a monarch that had actual power
(33:12):
other than Japan. So if the if the Russo Japanese
War goes differently and we get a different what if
we don't have the power of the emperor in Japan.
Speaker 4 (33:24):
Yeah, I'm sorry, I didn't mean yeah, yeah, I just
wanted to follow on with the thought there that the
Japanese were definitely greatly affected. And I believe that this
is really one of the reasons where Japan grabs and
(33:44):
plants the banner of anti westernism at the same time
that it is doing everything can to become a Western power.
So that's part of the part of the cultural paradox,
if you will, of what Japan is and what Japan
is doing at the time. But when you look at
(34:05):
this as a lead up to World War Two, you
can see where philosophically, the Japanese would say, you know,
this whole concept of a greater East Asian coast prosperity
sphere with us as the undisputed top dogs of said
co prosperity sphere is definitely an ideology that is going
(34:32):
to continue to motivate the Japanese military, and throughout the
period leading up to Tsushima and post Tsushima, the Japanese
military becomes I wouldn't say increasingly, but it is certainly.
It's a loose cannon. It's a wild card. So what's
happening during the inter war periods in China. It's almost
(34:55):
as if the you know, the militaries that were occupying
Mancheria the puppet states essentially we're okay, we really don't
care what anyone else says. We are going to be
the aggressors and we are going to take the territories
that we want. Yeah, Soshima is the first step of embolding,
(35:18):
of embolding the militarist, and I think that you can
get a feel for that going for the next fifty
years until to thirty years, until finally, you know, the
Inner war period comes and you know what we consider,
you know, to be you know, the setup for World
War two is established.
Speaker 1 (35:40):
There was an interesting take I saw, which was that
Tsushima essentially set Japan up for the failure that World
War Two ended up being because they gained an unearned
or maybe not totally unearned, but it kind of over
zealous idea of how powerful they were. They start when
they you know, when you destroy a great power like Russia,
(36:01):
well they they really didn't destroy the whole power, but
they thought they did. Right, They got this idea that
they really just absolutely dominated in that war, and they
did dominate. At this battle, they decide that that means, oh,
we're essentially unstoppable. There's you know, there's no fleet in
the in the Pacific that can that can challenge us,
and that maybe that was you know, this kind of
arrogance in this this idea that they that they were
(36:23):
the most powerful navy in the Pacific might have essentially
given their generations of their officers and their commanders, you know,
an idea that they were more prepared and less likely
to lose than they really were. And I think I
think there are some people who within Japan even who
realized that, you know, that was they they were maybe
not as not as on not on not as solid
(36:45):
a ground as they thought they were in terms of
how how how powerful their military was. But there's a
good point to say that they they see such a
such an incredible victory here that it gives you a
sense of vulnerability and that that might have lasted until
World War II, which made them make some decisions that
(37:05):
impacted the impacted how that war turned out.
Speaker 4 (37:08):
Yeah, the simple reality is neither Hitler nor Hiro Huito
and the Japanese military thought that they were going into
a losing war when they started World War two. And
if you look at the actual history of what Great Britain, France,
and the United States were doing, we were very preoccupied,
obviously with the economic catastrophe of the Great Depression. The
(37:31):
flag of fascism was raised as counter to the democracies
which were failing in the world due to their overreliance
on economics or whatever. And you know, the concept of freedom.
Fascism is the future, and this is not.
Speaker 5 (37:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
Again, no one goes to war to lose, and no
one goes to war unless you think that you've got
a good chance of winning, and if you've got an
unrealistic expectation of just how good your army is. Yeah, that's.
Speaker 1 (38:03):
The Russians definitely did going going into the war was part.
Speaker 2 (38:06):
Of Japan having this fantastic confidence that their fleet was
going to be undefeatable in a tinier little piece of
this battle.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
You know, uh Yamamoto was was at this battle and
he lost two fingers when when on his ship. I
think it was because shell went off early or something
like that. If he had lost three fingers, he would
have been medically discharged from the army, from the navy.
And so he loses two fingers at this battle, and
so he isn't medically discharged, And it makes you wonder,
(38:37):
you know, he he plans Pearl Harbor and kind he is.
Speaker 5 (38:40):
He is certainly an important Japanese military leader.
Speaker 3 (38:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (38:44):
So you know, if he's taken if he's taken out
even just by you know, a medical injury, you wonder
what that means. Does that mean he has the uh
he's in the position by World War two, and that's
that that could that could impact it. I think that uh,
I mean to some extent. You'd say the attack on
America was probably if if the Japanese are going into
(39:04):
World War two with the goals that they had, they're
going to have to make that attack somehow. But it
might have impacted how they made that attack.
Speaker 5 (39:12):
It could well other things as well.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
You have to understand how fuzzy alliances were at the time,
because when the Washington Naval.
Speaker 5 (39:20):
Treaty, when we ratified that treaty which included Japan.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
In Germany and France and Britain and Italy, but the
Washington Naval Treaty at the time, there was a concern
that the naval build up could lead to war.
Speaker 5 (39:33):
Between the US and Great Britain.
Speaker 2 (39:36):
I mean, was it was certainly not set that we
were going to wind up on the side of Britain
and France in the First World War. It was certainly
not the set that we were going to be allies
with Britain. There was a real concern that we could
end up going to war with Britain. And so if
you don't have the Japanese naval build up in the Pacific,
then you don't have that distraction for the US fleet.
(39:56):
Does that lead to a naval arms race in the
Atlantic that ends up driving a war between the United
States and the United Kingdom? And if so, how do
we after easily defeating the Bretts, how do we run
the place? Because because we know there's no they weren't
going to win, right.
Speaker 1 (40:16):
But even you know, even if even if it's an
inconclusive war or of of whatever, you know, whatever it tastes,
If if if we just have a more strongly you know,
anti anti British sentiment in the US, that that could
seriously alter because you know, one of the ideas that
this the connection between England and America. We have this
(40:38):
idea of course now that it's it's a kind of
an old friendship, but.
Speaker 2 (40:43):
That was not yeah, that really came. I mean, John
hay I had a lot to do with that at
the latter part of the nineteenth century. But we think
what all that means because that likely would have meant
war with Canada, and of course in between the two
is Greenland, so Greenland and Canada might be.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
That's it could be a very very dramatic shift. It is.
It is interesting to imagine. So, you know, you don't
have you don't have this, Tsushima goes differently on this
Japanese build up more American ships in the Atlantic, and
then you have a you have a war because that's
you know, a war between the United States and Canada.
The fight the fights we did have there.
Speaker 5 (41:19):
I yeah, yeah, you can't.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
You can can't say what happened in eighteen twelve would
have been the same that might have happened in nineteen twelve.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Yeah, but it's a huge.
Speaker 1 (41:26):
It's it is, it would have been a different war.
To imagine, you know, fighting fighting Canada when we have
the border they had.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Gone to war with the United Kingdom, would that necessarily
have met war with Canada given the length of that
border that you know, that's what that could have been
fought in the county.
Speaker 3 (41:40):
Maybe Canada wants to or there's.
Speaker 2 (41:42):
Canada to join with us, because I don't know if
they're I don't know, but I mean there really was
a concern about that maybe.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
They maybe they don't want to war in the United Kingdom.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
And one of the reasons for the Naval Treaty was
to prevent that war, and so if we were distracted
by having to have a large specific presence because of
the Japanese fleet, then does that mean that we have
a large or atlantic presence and does that lead to
tension between US and the British which then also changes
the whole twentieth century?
Speaker 4 (42:08):
The more important question is how does this affect sasquatch.
Well that we all know the invasion of Canada.
Speaker 2 (42:14):
If there had been a war between the US and Canada,
I think the real question would be which side the
Sasquatch take.
Speaker 3 (42:20):
That could have been how do we get sasquatch into
the battles Sushima.
Speaker 2 (42:25):
Now we found a way, because if you're fighting between
the US and Canada, sasquatch is definitely in the picture.
Speaker 5 (42:31):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (42:31):
Yeah, Admittedly, when I was thinking about it, I was like,
ash in a naval battle, it's a little harder to
get sasquatch involved because we talked about different country sasquatches.
I'm like, what is the ocean's sasquatch?
Speaker 5 (42:46):
Now?
Speaker 4 (42:47):
You know other other possible counterfactuals. What if before the
battle that leads it to the Sinushima Straits again, what
if there's an inconclusive end to the to the fleet.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
Of Port Arthur.
Speaker 3 (43:02):
That's so true.
Speaker 2 (43:02):
I mean Port Arthur was what should have been a
winnable battle that was just all sorts of mistakes made
by the Russians there, But they should have been able
to defend that port, which had a huge, you know,
a huge defensive mechanism built.
Speaker 3 (43:14):
So if if they hold it Port Arthur, is that
changed the war?
Speaker 2 (43:19):
And because the real idea was that the Russian fleet
was going to get there to Port Arthur, right, and
then then We're going to be able to protect Port Arthur.
Speaker 3 (43:25):
It was kind of the whole plan. It wasn't like
they're going to go to beet Japan.
Speaker 5 (43:27):
They were just going to be able to defend.
Speaker 3 (43:29):
The territory there.
Speaker 2 (43:30):
So I mean, what if the war ends with the
Russians hanging on to Manchuria. I mean, what if the
war still ends with if they still have a messy fight.
What if they still agree that Japan has a sphere
of influence in Korea, but Russia hangs on to its
those Pacific territories, especially Manchurian and Port Arthur and et cetera.
How does that change the next century?
Speaker 4 (43:50):
Yeah, Yeah, because the lead up to World War one
obviously is not as depended on Manchuria. But the inter
war here are certainly dominated by what Japan was doing
in Manchuria, and this led to, you know, some westerncerns,
and I think that the United States was you know,
(44:10):
they took a look at the occupation of Manchuri by
the Japanese and they were not pleased with what they saw.
That obviously resulted in tensions between the US and Japan,
leading him to the Second World War. I do like
the idea that if somehow the Germans had been able
to retain their limited possessions, that there might have been
(44:33):
more of a focus on preserving those at least leading
into World War One and then possibly even post World
War One, if they had somehow held onto that territory.
I really don't think that they would. I think that
that's a bit of a stretch for a counterfactual, because
World War One was largely fought over okay, you know,
(44:54):
who coulds to have what colonies were as well as
the question of who is the top dog in Europe,
and clearly it was not the Austro Hungarians.
Speaker 1 (45:06):
It does seem like even if the Germans, you know,
hold on to the hold on to those territories, and
they don't lose them, you know, to combat. It would
have they wouldn't have held them through the through the
peace negotiations. It is a little interesting to me that
one of the things I saw is that the one
of the reasons why the Czar sends his Baltic fleet
is because Kaiser the Wilhelm was just absolutely goading him
(45:29):
into it, and he was telling Nicholas that, oh, you know,
this will be the way that we will divide all
the territory and in East Asia, including British territory, and
there in this idea that his his plans for future wars.
He really had this idea, or he seemed to be
pushing Nicholas to think that, you know, that this was
that it was a victory that the Russians had to have,
And so there was I saw some talk that essentially
(45:51):
that maybe Nicholas wouldn't have done it, and that he
didn't seem inclined to do so until he was convinced
by Wilhelm that that was the the right plan. And
I don't know if that was if there was any
shady dealing there. If I think Wilhelm probably likely thought
that the Russians would win.
Speaker 5 (46:09):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (46:09):
I don't think he pushed Nicholas with the idea that
I know, the Russian fleet is you know, untrained and
unprepared and will be totally exhausted by the time they
get there, and they will surely surely be defeated.
Speaker 3 (46:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (46:20):
Yeah, because they're all related either to the to the
Queen of England or the King of Sweden. Right, And
that is that is interesting because we talked about the
Prestigian backed and all that sort of stuff. What if
it maintains the relationship between Russia and Prussia in a
way that they, you know, won't go to war with
each other. Of course, you know, does that change, you
know if because the Kaiser had managed to alienate too
(46:43):
many people. And that's one of the reasons the First
World War occurs that if he was you know, we
lose Bismarck, we end up with Wilhelm.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
Wilhelm is not nearly as good at diplomat.
Speaker 2 (46:52):
He doesn't understand that he has to be friends with
either France or Russia, but he just can't get on
the bad side of both, and that's all leads into
the First World War. So this may be impacts whether
he stays on the good side of the bad side
of Russia, which then impacts again that you know, dis
Germany to go. And of course if Germany doesn't go
into the First World War, they don't choose that, then
there's the Second World Wars and outfall of the First
(47:13):
World War. So I mean, what if what if we
avoid the two deadliest wars in human history?
Speaker 1 (47:20):
Yeah, does that mean we totally haves is some significant but.
Speaker 2 (47:25):
That all really depend on the Battle of Tsushima. But
I mean, I think as a counterfactual, it's not absurd
to say that those were avoidable wars. I mean, in
the end, they seem to be thought over futile reasons, right,
And so you know, I don't know, did there have
to be a war for the final exhaustion of the
Austro Hungarian Empire?
Speaker 3 (47:42):
Could have gone down without war?
Speaker 1 (47:43):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (47:44):
Could monarchy and colonialism have been destroyed without those wars
because they were you know, I don't know. But I mean,
could they have had some sort of natural death that
you know, avoided killing fifty million people?
Speaker 5 (47:56):
Another?
Speaker 2 (47:57):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (47:57):
You know, well, while we're talking about morally prehensible things,
let's also talk about the racism that is part of
the entire story around.
Speaker 1 (48:10):
Yeah, you know, on all sides on that one, that's yeah.
Speaker 4 (48:14):
Yeah, the Russians were definitely on the side that, yes,
these uh lesser uh Asiatic peoples, there's no way they
could ever beat our fleet. And to be fair, the
Japanese were, well, those barbarians uh from from Russia, There's
no way they could beat our fleet. This I think
(48:35):
has a lot of impact going forward, even even post
World War One, where the you know, the Asiatic peoples
in general take a critical look at you know, how
are we viewed in the rest of the world, and
how do we view the rest of the world.
Speaker 1 (48:52):
And of course there was significant racism between the Japanese
and the Koreans and the Japanese and the Chinese, which
were also pieces of the but that's you know, that's
that was essentially the concept of japan thinking that they
they had as they had as much thought of, they
have a right absolutely to rule over these lesser peoples,
as I mean, that's it was.
Speaker 2 (49:13):
And so it goes into the it goes into the
rape of non king and everything goes you know later too.
So yeah, and as so if they don't have this
great victory here is Japan more humble? Do they?
Speaker 3 (49:26):
Do?
Speaker 2 (49:26):
They not believe that they are racially but I don't know.
I don't know how because you know, they be fighting
with the Russians. That's an interesting question is it could
did anything with the Battle of Tsushima have the ability
to impact those racist attitudes that might have limited those
racist attitudes, which then might have moderated decisions made to
the rest of the century.
Speaker 1 (49:46):
Yeah, I mean when it comes to Japan, I think
the big turning points here with Tsushima is that they
were all I mean, they were already looking I mean,
you know, their imperial ambitions. That's the whole reason they
start the war with Russia and of course fights back.
It was all over a relation, you know, who was
going to control Manchuria and Korea and stuff like that.
(50:06):
The question is whether if if this battle goes differently,
if the war goes differently, because we are relying on
that this war was not the only peace or this
battle was not the only piece of the war, but
it was an important piece of you know, kind of
the propaganda and the feeling of the Japanese people. Do
they decide, you know, to give up their imperial ambitions
or even moderate them, And what does that look like.
(50:27):
On the other hand, if they see their plans thwarted
in Korea, do they just decide to double down on China?
And that's it's an interesting way to think that if
we all of these things we kind of take for
granted in terms of how World War two went on,
had a lot to do with a battle fought almost
forty years before that A lot of people, you know,
(50:47):
haven't heard of. I don't think this is a crazy
unknown battle. I think a lot of people who are
really into history know about it. But I would guess
that the average person you ask on the street in
the US and probably most of Europe, if you ask
them what is the Battle of Tsushima, they're not going
to have They're not going to have an idea of
just how pivotal this.
Speaker 3 (51:06):
Yeah, I would say.
Speaker 2 (51:07):
Many Americans don't couldn't tell you anything about the Russo
Japanese War and have no idea of the Battle of Sushima.
Speaker 3 (51:12):
And I don't know.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
I mean, you know, part of the part of the
challenge for us too is you don't know how everything
is taught historically anywhere. So I would imagine it's talkt
quite a lot more in Japan, but how much would
the average you know, I mean, imagine trying to teach
history in the United Kingdom. I mean, you know how
much time you got per monarch right per battle war.
Speaker 1 (51:31):
I saw one talking about they were asking that they
were asking people in England on the street who the
first king of who the first king of England was,
and they I mean, just as with those on the
streets and interviews in the US. It was it was
a joke about how few people were getting.
Speaker 2 (51:46):
Imagine they're saying Alfred. I would hope that they would
say Alfred was the first king of England.
Speaker 1 (51:50):
They seems they seemed to the answer they wanted was
ethel stand so after a couple generations after Alfred. But
meaning that, you know, for people in America, when we're
talking about the first president, we're talking seventeen eighty nine,
and when they're talking about the first king, they're talking
you know, like, what is that nine hundred?
Speaker 2 (52:09):
No, now I don't know, but I mean, yeah, that's
so when anyway, when you do the man on the
street interviews or a person on the street interviews in
America today and you know, the one they're asking people
how many stars are on the flag and they're they're
looking and they can't tell.
Speaker 3 (52:20):
Because the wind's not blowing them.
Speaker 2 (52:24):
So imagine that in the United Kingdom where you have
you know, essentially, I mean we were we were at
a really cool castle. Its name will come to me anyway.
I was laughing because at one point the king was
coming to visit, and so they built a bridge for
the king to visit, and that's the new bridge. The
bridge was built their nine hundred years after the castle,
and that bridge was built before the discovery of the Americas.
(52:44):
And so I mean, imagine how you know you got
this much trouble teaching US history? Well that's a teeny
bit of and that's why it would be such a
challenge to teach British history. And so how much how
much time can you can the British history put on
the Russo Japanese War?
Speaker 3 (53:01):
I don't know, I don't have any If we have
some British listeners.
Speaker 2 (53:03):
Maybe all can comment about did you learn about the
Russo Japanese War and what do you think? Because it
did end up having large impacts on the United Kingdom.
But goodness, there's so much history there.
Speaker 1 (53:13):
The same concept is true of Japan and China, which have,
you know, thousands of years of history.
Speaker 2 (53:19):
In terms of the life, it's very difficult to teach
our history and any degree or nuance or anything like that.
Speaker 5 (53:25):
I mean, and it's I mean, we have.
Speaker 2 (53:26):
Fun with the history guy and talk about all sorts
of kinds of history, and I think there's parts where
I talk about, say British history, that might not have
been taught in a British history class. But I mean,
it's an interesting challenge because every nation has their only
way that they perceive things. I mean, the War of
eighteen twelve is perceived very differently in Britain, very differently
in Canada, and that's perceived in the United States, and
that's that's a teeny little war when you look at
(53:48):
the entire breath of conflict. So it's I mean, it's
it is an interesting question, and I think it goes
back to us saying here, I mean, where where is
the Russo Japanese War? Really tough because I would suspect
that after the Soviet era that they didn't spend a
lot of time talking about the Russo Japanese War in Russia. Either, right, So,
I mean who who remembers this war? And I mean
maybe only Japan? And how much is it taught in Japan.
(54:10):
I don't have any idea, and yet it's it has
such a it is such a center pivotable, pivotal moment
at the beginning of a century that would have you know,
so much history.
Speaker 1 (54:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (54:21):
Another possible counterfactual. You know what if Manchuria remains in
Japanese hands, Japan never gets into World War two, so
it turns into strictly a European dust up, and you
don't get the yeah, yeah, you don't get that well, I.
Speaker 2 (54:39):
Mean, yeah, the real question is if Japan gets into
the Sino Japanese War, the first Sino Japanese War.
Speaker 5 (54:46):
Right, So, I mean it's there.
Speaker 2 (54:47):
Their contact with US really depends upon if they're adventuring
in China at the time. But you're right, if there's
no war in the Pacific and it's just a I
tried to mean it just a European dust up, then
you know, go on, it's a different war, right.
Speaker 4 (54:58):
Oh yeah, definitely definitely. The Chinese economic superpower, the Chinese
Communists don't win. The economic superpower that is China today
is not. It doesn't occur until at the very least later,
if at all. Japan in the sixties and seventies, instead
of building cars and transistor radios, does become that major
(55:23):
international economic powerhouse. So yeah, again a radically different world.
Speaker 1 (55:32):
Yeah, it's easy to see because it's certainly, you know,
if Japan doesn't get involved in World War two but
still maintains you know, territory on the on the Asian continent,
that does and that does lead to a very different
different world. I wonder, I mean, without Pearl Harbor, does
the US get involved in World War two? I mean,
(55:52):
I certainly FDR always seems to have thought we were
going to get involved in Europe. But the impetus for
it certainly was, you know, directly Pearl Harbor. So even
if even without Pearl harboring off, were delayed from getting
into the war for several years, and that could certainly
alter And that's that's I mean, that's an impact that
you could easily see occurring from from the consequences of
(56:16):
this battle. And of course that alters Europe as well,
not just because whether or not the United States gets involved,
but all of those all of the European nations had
territory in the in the East, and all of it
was you know, Australia and New Guinea and French, Indo, China,
all of these India, all of these places saw combat
(56:38):
of one kind or another because they were you know,
fighting in the fighting with Japan, and without Japan, that
means all of those essentially all of that doesn't happen.
There's no German territory in the in the East, so
that there wouldn't have been a war in the Pacific
at all. And that's not just the United States but
also all these various European powers that it could have impacted.
Speaker 4 (56:56):
Yeah, my conclusion on this is that Shima sets up
and validates the Japanese modernization and militarization and foreign policy
based upon a sphere of influence where they control Manchuria
in Korea, and without this battle, it is at the
(57:22):
very least rebuke to the militarist and might have you know,
caused your pan to go in a wildly different direction.
So again, even a draw at Tsushima where part of
the Russian fleet does get through, ultimately gets the blight
of Ostok and Port Arthur is going to fall pretty
(57:43):
much no matter what because the Japanese landforces were just
or were dominant in the region, and they really executed
a very very good military campaign.
Speaker 1 (57:56):
Yeah, Arthur was You wonder by the time that the
you know, before the fleet even gets their Port Arthur
has fallen, they were already pretty heavily committed in sending
the ball to fleet to Japan by that time, but
they were also still a very long way away from Japan.
You wonder if if they had decided at that point
that maybe it was pointless to send the fleet that
even then, that could have significantly changed things. If they
(58:19):
had just decide, oh, well, we're in Madagascar and the
point of us sending it there as kind of we
kind of lost that we don't have the port, because
the whole idea was Port Arthur was the only warm
water port the Russians had over there, right, So if
they don't have that, I've also wondered, you know, the
Russians could have decided to try to get to a
(58:39):
lot of US stock or to port you know, to
get there. They could instead of going through Sushima, they
could have gone around and gone through gone you know,
north of Japan. And I wonder if that would have
been in terms of distance they had already traveled half
you know, halfway around the world. That wasn't this wasn't
all that big a difference.
Speaker 3 (58:56):
Different paces.
Speaker 5 (58:57):
I mean, there's there's different ways.
Speaker 3 (58:59):
Yeah, I mean goes back to the start.
Speaker 2 (59:00):
And you know, in terms of the other parts too though,
I mean a Japanese a greater Japanese loss in the
Russo Japanese War, if the Japanese had not won Tsushima
and et cetera.
Speaker 3 (59:11):
I mean, would that have been the end of miilitarism
in Japan?
Speaker 2 (59:14):
Or might that have sparked a hypernationalist movement that would
have been more militarism in Japan. And so it's you
can we could still never I mean that we can
say here, maybe this played a huge role the Russo
Japanese War, played a huge role in the in the
Revolution of nineteen oh five, or it played a huge
role in the militarization of Japan. But that doesn't mean
that if we change the situation that you still don't
(59:34):
get those You might even get those in you know,
hyper form.
Speaker 1 (59:36):
Yeah, right, that's true, and in which case maybe maybe
the war goes differently, but not in the way we've
been talking about you know, maybe Japan is more involved
in is more aggressive, and you know there's a war
in the Pacific earlier than you know, if they decide
instead of attacking nineteen forty one, they attack, you know,
(59:59):
nineteen ten thirty eight, that's a very different conversation. Thank
you for listening to this episode of The History Guy podcast.
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