The Independent Advisors Podcast Episode 316: Seasonality in Vogue

#316 topics:

September Historically Weak

• Current market positioning: No significant pullback since April lows, creating potential opportunity for buyers during September weakness.
• Contrarian perspective: Excessive focus on September weakness in media might indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

Currency and International Markets

• Dollar weakness driving international outperformance
• Concerns about international markets' ability to maintain outperformance due to shorter work weeks and slower growth rates compared to US.

Housing Market Dynamics

• Supply-demand imbalance: Redfin data shows 508,000 more home sellers than buyers in June 2024.
• Despite higher mortgage rates, household debt service remains below historical norms.
• Oversupply of sellers versus buyers suggests potential downward pressure on home prices.

Federal Reserve Policy Shift

• Fed adopted new approach removing 2% average inflation target reference and focusing on employment shortfalls.

AI Job Displacement Concerns

• Historical analysis shows technological advances have created 6 billion jobs despite continuous industry disruption.

Show Notes:

Post on X by Ryan Detrick at Carson Investment Research on 8.29 - https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1961495356287463555

blog post from Jeff Hirsch on 8.27 - https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/793063284503953408/bears-have-been-running-wild-in-september-since

Blog post from Taylor Schulte on 8.28 titled “6 Favorite Investing Charts - https://taylor-schulte.kit.com/posts/the-best-investing-charts-august-2025

Blog Post from Seth Klarman on 8.25. titled “Job Churn” - https://seths.blog/2025/08/job-churn/

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