Mental Models For Managing Change - The Iceberg Model

Welcome to a very special mini-series on The Inner Game of Change. I’m thrilled to take you on this journey as we explore something both timeless and practical: Mental Models for Managing Change.

In this episode, we explore a model that helps us look beyond what is visible in times of change: the Iceberg Model.

Often, we respond to what we can see on the surface — missed deadlines, disengaged teams, unexpected resistance. But, as with an iceberg, most of the real forces driving those outcomes lie beneath.

The Iceberg Model encourages us to go deeper — to understand the patterns, structures, and mental models that sit underneath the events we see. When we take this layered view, we can begin to address root causes, not just symptoms.

If you have ever found yourself solving the same issue repeatedly or wondering why certain problems persist despite good intentions, this episode offers a powerful way to reframe your approach.

Listen now to discover how the Iceberg Model can help you lead more thoughtful, sustainable change in your organisation.

#ChangeManagement #MentalModels #SystemsThinking #OrganisationalChange #LeadershipDevelopment #ManagingChange #ComplexityThinking #TheInnerGameOfChange

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Ali Juma
@The Inner Game of Change podcast

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Hi everyone and welcome to a very special
mini-series on the inner game ofchange.
I am your host, ali Juma.
This series is all aboutsharing timeless, practical ways
of thinking that can help usnavigate change more
thoughtfully and effectively inwork, in life and all the messy
places in between.
Now, before we jump intotoday's model, let's quickly

(00:33):
revisit what a mental modelactually is.
It is basically a way of seeing, a mental framework that helps
us make sense of things, solveproblems and make better
decisions.
You can think of it like a GPSfor your thinking.
Now, to bring that to life,imagine you are driving to a

(00:53):
place you've never been before.
No map, no directions, justvibes.
Chances are you will take a fewwrong turns, maybe end up a bit
frustrated, right, but with themap, your mental model, you've
got a route.
You can anticipate what's ahead, avoid unnecessary detours and

(01:14):
get to where you want to go withmore confidence and less stress
.
Mental models do the same forchange.
They help us cut through noisespot patterns and work with
complexity, not against it.
And today we're diving into amodel that is especially good at
helping us understand what isreally going on beneath the

(01:37):
surface of change the icebergmodel.
Now here's the thing when wetry to manage change, especially
big, frustrating, systemicchange, we often focus on what's
visible the missed deadline,the grumpy team, the unexpected
result.
But, like an iceberg, when yousee above the surface, it's only

(01:58):
a tiny part of the picture.
The iSpec model helps us slowdown, take a step back and ask
what's really driving this,because most of the time, the
real story is happeningunderneaths.
And 60s, through the work ofthinkers like Jay Forster,
donella Meadows and Peter Singh,they noticed that many of the

(02:31):
world's most stubborn problems,from environmental collapse to
broken workplace cultures,couldn't be solved by treating
symptoms.
You had to dig deeper,understand the relationships and
structures underneath thesurface, and that's exactly what
this model is designed to helpus do.
So what's the iceberg modelexactly?

(02:53):
Picture an iceberg in the ocean, the part you see above the
water.
That's the event.
What happened?
The thing that everyone istalking about Just beneath the
surface are patterns.
These are trends or behaviorsthat repeat over time.
A little further down, you'vegot structures, the processes,

(03:15):
policies, workflows or habitsthat are propping up these
patterns and, at the deepestlayer, mental models, the
beliefs, the assumptions, theways of thinking that silently
drive everything else.
So it looks something like thisthe event, what happened, the

(03:36):
pattern, what keeps happening.
The structure, what is enablingit, mental models, why it
exists in the first place.
Let's bring this to life with anexample.
Say, your team is constantlymissing deadlines.
That is the event, the thingthat everyone is noticing and

(03:56):
talking about.
Now step back.
Is this a one-off or a pattern?
If it is happening acrossmultiple projects at different
times, then there is probably adeeper issue.
Next, ask what's the structureenabling this?
Maybe the process for approvalsis clunky or workloads are

(04:17):
unevenly distributed.
Maybe meetings run too long orpriorities keep shifting.
And then the final, deepestquestion what is the mental
model behind all this?
Maybe it is a belief that speedequals sloppiness, so people
hold back until things areperfect.
Or maybe there is an unspokenassumption that working late is

(04:40):
a badge of honor, so things getpushed until the last minute.
You see how powerful that is.
When you start pulling on thatthread, you stop reacting and
start understanding.
And when you understand thesystem, you begin to shape it.
So how do you actually apply theiceberg model in your

(05:01):
day-to-day?
Here are three really practicalsteps to try.
Notice the event, but don'tstop there the next time
something goes wrong a delay, amistake, a resistance to change,
pause.
Ask yourself has this happenedbefore?
If it has, you're likelylooking at a pattern.

(05:22):
Number two dig into structuresand systems.
What's in a place that could bereinforcing the pattern?
Is it a policy, a lack ofresources?
Is it the way feedback is givenor not given?
Look at the environment, notjust the individuals.
And number three challenge themental models.

(05:43):
This one takes courage, but itis also where the gold is.
Ask what assumptions are weworking from and, more
importantly, are those beliefsstill serving us?
You don't have to do thisperfectly, you just have to stay
curious.
The more you do this, the morenaturally it becomes part of how

(06:04):
you lead and think.
Before we wrap up, I want you toknow you can do this.
You don't need to be a systemstheorist.
You just need to be willing tolook beneath the surface, to get
curious about what's reallygoing on.
Here's your mini challenge.
Take something that is buggingyou right now in your team, your

(06:25):
organization or even your ownroutine.
Identify the event, ask ifthere is a pattern, look for the
structure and then get braveand explore the mental model.
It might just change the wayyou see the problem and the way
you solve it.
To wrap up, the iceberg modelreminds us that what we see is

(06:46):
only a small part of the biggerpicture.
Sustainable change happens whenwe go deeper, beyond symptoms,
into the systems, structures andbeliefs that shape them.
Thank you so much for tuning into Mental Models for Managing
Change.
If this episode gave you a newperspective, I'd love to hear
from you, or you can share itwith someone navigating change

(07:08):
too.
And next time we're building onthis with a mental model that
takes you even one level furthersecond-order thinking.
We'll explore why short-termsolutions often lead to
long-term problems and how tothink in layers, consequences
and ripple effects.
I'll leave you with thisthought the real voyage of

(07:30):
discovery consists not inseeking new landscapes, but in
having new eyes.
That's Marcel Proust.
Until next time, thank you.