Mental Models For Managing Change - The Ladder Of Inference

Welcome to a very special mini-series on The Inner Game of Change. I’m thrilled to take you on this journey as we explore something both timeless and practical: Mental Models for Managing Change.

In this episode of Mental Models for Managing Change, we explore a mental model that helps us pause, reflect, and challenge how we make sense of the world around us: The Ladder of Inference.

Developed by organisational psychologist Chris Argyris and later popularised by Peter Senge, this model shows how quickly we move from observing facts to taking action — often based on assumptions, not evidence.

It is especially useful in moments of tension, misalignment, or misunderstanding — and in change work, those moments happen often.

If you have ever walked away from a meeting wondering, “How did we end up on such different pages?”, this episode is for you.

Learn how to recognise the thinking patterns that drive your decisions, how to stay grounded in what is observable, and how to open up better, more constructive conversations — even during complex change.

Listen now to step off the ladder, and into clearer, more intentional leadership.

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Ali Juma
@The Inner Game of Change podcast

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hi everyone and welcome back to Mental Models
for Managing Change.
I am Ali Juma and I'm gratefulyou are tuning in.
In our last episode, weexplored second order thinking,
the idea that every decision hasripple effects and that if we
want to lead sustainable change,we need to look beyond the

(00:26):
immediate outcome.
Today, we're going to shift thelens a little, not to what
happens after a decision, but towhat happens before.
Now, before we dive in, let'stake a moment to revisit what a
mental model actually is.
A mental model is simply a wayof thinking, a framework we use,

(00:46):
often unconsciously, tointerpret what's happening
around us.
You can think of it as a mapfor your mind, something that
helps you navigate complexsituations, spot patterns and
make better choices.
And, just like any map, thebetter your model, the better
your ability to lead throughuncertainty.

(01:06):
Which brings us to today'smodel, the ladder of inference.
This is one of the mostpowerful tools we have for
slowing down, checking ourassumptions and understanding
why two people can look at thesame situation and walk away
with totally differentconclusions.
Let's start with the modelitself.

(01:27):
The ladder of inference wasdeveloped by organizational
psychologist Chris Aguirre andlater popularized by Peter Singh
in the fifth discipline.
It is a model that describeshow we go from observing
something to acting on it, oftenwithout even realizing the
thinking steps we've taken inbetween.

(01:48):
Here's how it works.
Imagine a ladder.
At the bottom is reality andfacts.
That's everything that isobservable Raw data, events,
behaviors.
But we don't act on all of that.
Instead, we start to selectdata.
We pay attention to certainfacts and ignore others, adding

(02:12):
meaning based on our experiences, culture and beliefs, make
assumptions about what's goingon, draw conclusions and form
beliefs.
Then, finally, we take actionbased on that belief.
By the time we have climbed theladder, we're often reacting
not to what actually happenedbut to the story we've created

(02:34):
about what happened.
A simple example let's say youare leading a change initiative
and you notice that a team hasnot filled in a required form At
the bottom of the ladder.
The observable fact the formwas not submitted.
But here's what might happeninternally.
You notice the missing form.

(02:54):
That is your selected data.
You think they're not takingthis seriously.
You've added meaning to it.
You assume they are resistingthe change.
That's your assumption.
You conclude the team isdisengaged.
That's your conclusion.

(03:14):
And you decide not to involvethem in the next planning
session, and that is your action.
All of that happened in yourhead fast and it's completely
understandable.
But what if they never got theform, or the leader was off sick
, or they had questions anddidn't know how to ask?
The ladder of inference helpsus pause and ask what story am I

(03:35):
building here, what facts am Iskipping and what assumptions
might be coloring how I see thissituation?
White matters in change, work Inchange.
People are under pressure,there is uncertainty, there are
competing priorities and underthose conditions, we all tend to
climb the ladder faster, oftenwithout even noticing.

(03:57):
This model gives us a way tostep back and challenge our own
thinking and the thinking ofothers without blame or
defensiveness.
Here's a powerful part.
Every conversation we have in achange process is sitting
somewhere on this ladder yoursand theirs.
So if we can learn to askbetter questions and check the

(04:19):
ranks as we go, we reduceconflict, increase empathy and
build better alignment when itfits in the change management
journey.
The ladder of influence is mostuseful during stakeholder
engagement and consultation,team dynamics and collaboration,
feedback and resistanceconversations and, honestly, any

(04:41):
moment where tension andmisunderstanding might be
building.
Think of it as your internaldebrief tool and a lens you can
bring to external conversationstoo.
How to use it practically.
Here are a few simple ways tobring this model into your
day-to-day.
One ask yourself what did Iobserve and what did I assume.

(05:02):
When you feel a strong reaction, pause and separate the fact
from the interpretation.
Two ask others what led you tothat conclusion.
This invites them to walk youthrough their ladder without
putting them on the defensive.
Three rewind before you react,especially in moments of

(05:23):
conflict or confusion.
Step down the ladder, even justone rung, and clarity usually
follows your reflectionchallenge this week Take a
conversation or a moment fromthe past few days where you felt
frustrated, confused ormisunderstood.
Ask yourself what was theactual observable data, what did

(05:46):
I add to it, what story did Itell myself and what action did
I take based on that?
Then ask if I had paused on theladder, would I have acted
differently?
This kind of reflection buildsreal awareness and over time
time it transforms how we lead,how we listen and how we

(06:07):
collaborate.
Thanks again for joining me onthe mental models for managing
change.
If this episode gave you a newperspective, I'd love you to
share it with someone you workwith, especially someone you've
had a latter moment withrecently.
These are the kinds of toolsthat open doors for better
conversations Next time.

(06:28):
We're exploring a model thathelps you focus on what truly
matters the Pareto Principle orthe 80-20 rule, where small
efforts often lead to bigresults and I'll leave you with
this.
The problem is not that we jumpto conclusions, it is that we
forget we've jumped.

(06:48):
Until next time, thank you.