Mental Models For Managing Change - The Planning Fallacy

Welcome to a very special mini-series on The Inner Game of Change. I’m thrilled to take you on this journey as we explore something both timeless and practical: Mental Models for Managing Change. 

Now, before we step into today’s topic, let’s revisit something we mention in every episode, what is a mental model anyway?

A mental model is a way of seeing, a framework that helps us interpret complexity, solve problems, and make better decisions.
 You can think of it like a mental lens. The clearer it is, the better we navigate uncertainty and lead with intention.

In our last episode, we explored Chunking — a model about breaking big challenges into small, manageable pieces so we can make steady progress without feeling overwhelmed.

Today, we are staying in that space between vision and execution. Because once we’ve broken things down into chunks, the next trap is how we estimate the time and effort those chunks will take.

And that’s where today’s mental model comes in — The Planning Fallacy.

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Ali Juma
@The Inner Game of Change podcast

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
Hi everyone and welcome back to Mental Models
for Managing Change.
I am Ali Jemam and if you'vebeen on this journey with me
from the beginning, I just wantto say thank you.
This is the final episode inour 15-part mini-series and I'm
so glad you're here for it.
Part mini-series and I'm soglad you're here for it.

(00:28):
Now, before we jump in, let'squickly revisit what a mental
model actually is.
A mental model is a way ofseeing, a framework that helps
us make sense of complexity,solve problems and make better
decisions.
Think of it like a map for yourthinking.
The clearer the model, the moreconfidently we can navigate
change and the uncertainty thatcomes with it.

(00:50):
In our last episode, weexplored chunking, breaking big,
daunting change into smaller,more manageable pieces.
It is how we reduce overwhelmand build momentum, how we
reduce overwhelm and buildmomentum.
Today we are finishing on amodel that is deceptively simple
but quietly powerful theplanning policy.

(01:12):
It is the tendency we all have,as individuals, teams and even
entire organizations, tounderestimate how long things
will take, how complex theyreally are and what they will
cost in terms of energy, effortand time.
Sound familiar?
You think we can finish thisproject in three months.

(01:33):
Reality it takes six.
You promise we'll go alivebefore the semester starts.
Reality we're still testingworkflows two weeks in, and the
thing is, it's not because weare bad at planning, it's
because we are human.
The planning fallacy was firstcoined by Daniel Kahneman and

(01:53):
Amos Versky, two pioneers inbehavioral economics.
They found that we tend to planbased on best-case scenarios,
forgetting how often the pasttells a different story.
In change work, this shows upeverywhere, in undercooked
timelines, over-ambitiousroadmaps and well-intentioned

(02:15):
commitments that quietly exhaustthe teams behind them.
Let me give you a real example.
Back in the early 20s, theSydney Opera House renovation
was meant to be astraightforward upgrade, but
costs ballooned, timelinesflipped and what was supposed to
take a few years dragged on formore than a decade.

(02:36):
Why?
Because the plan was built onoptimism, not precedent.
This is not about being cynical.
It is about being wiser.
So what can we do?
Here are three strategies thathelp tackle the planning policy.
One use reference classforecasting Instead of just

(02:59):
planning from scratch.
Ask how long did similarprojects actually take?
This grounds your plan in liveddata, not wishful thinking.
Two build in buffers and meanthem.
Do not treat buffers as luxury.
Treat them as reality insurance.
Time for the unexpected is timewell spent?

(03:20):
Three test your optimism.
Ask your team if we had to beton this timeline, would we still
back it?
That simple question can serveas hidden concerns, before they
turn into delays.
Your reflection for the weekThink of a project you are
planning or one you are part of.

(03:42):
Ask are we planning for thework or for the ideal version of
the work?
What could we learn from thelast time we tried something
similar?
Because the goal is not just toplan beautifully, it is to plan
truthfully, and truthful plansbuild trust, and trust fuels

(04:03):
change.
And now, a personal note this isthe last episode in the Mental
Models for Managing Changeminiseries 15 episodes One wild,
wonderful journey for me, and Ihope it was for you.
When I started this series, myhope was simple to offer
timeless ways of thinking thatcould help you, whether you're a

(04:27):
change leader, a manager, acoach or simply someone who
wants to navigate this messything we call transformation.
Your messages, your shares andyour reflections they've meant
the world to me.
Thank you for tuning in and forletting me part of your
learning, for tuning in and forletting me part of your learning

(04:48):
.
If these episodes made adifference for you.
I'd love it if you shared themwith a colleague, with a team or
a community.
And if you want to keep goingdeeper, check out my other
podcast, the Inner Game ofChange, where I host raw, honest
conversations with people whoare shaping the future of work,
learning and leadership.
For now, I'll leave you withthis Plans are nothing.

(05:13):
Planning is everything.
This is Dwight Eisenhower, andbefore I go, I want to share
something personal.
It is my intention to keeplearning and sharing with you.
This mini-series may bewrapping up, but the journey is
far from over.
Very soon, I'll be launchinganother mini-series, one that

(05:36):
looks at change from a differentangle, a new lens, a fresh set
of questions, because if there'sone thing I've learned through
all of this time, it is that theway we think about change
shapes how we move through it.
So stay tuned and, until then,keep walking, keep questioning

(05:56):
and keep looking up from the map.
See you soon.
Thank you.