December 10, 2025 • 39 mins
Today, Josh breaks down President Trump’s campaign swing through Pennsylvania and why the economy remains the single biggest factor heading into the 2026 midterms. Josh makes it clear: The data may show lower inflation, but if Americans don’t feel it, the White House has a real problem. He lays out what the president must do to regain voter confidence and rebuild momentum on the economic front.
Josh then pivots to the stunning outcome in the Miami mayoral race, where a Democrat won for the first time in thirty years. He warns that these results—Miami, Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey, and beyond—are screaming red alerts for the GOP, and Republicans need to wake up fast or risk losing far more in 2026.
This is a full-throttle political reality check the Right needs to hear.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Donald Trump trying an economic reset, going to the crucial
swing state of Pennsylvania, trying to get a jumpstart on
the twenty twenty six midterm push. It's going to be
all hands on deck for Donald Trump on the midterm
campaign trail. Can he salvage your pulling in Congress next fall? Meanwhile,
here in South Florida, a mayoral election goes against Republicans
(00:20):
for the first time in three decades? What does all
this mean for the midterms? All that much more? In
say's episode of the Josh Hammershew, Well, if you've been
listening to the show for a while now, you know
that one of our major themes is that it is
still the economy stupid. This does not require a data
scientist or a space engineer to try to figure out
(00:43):
why that is the case. Simply put, it is the
case because the American people just don't feel that the
economy is necessarily working for them. And we're going to
get to Donald Trump's perspective on this, that we're going
to get to public policy, We're going to get to
all that, and just a moment there, but right out
of the gates, I want to just say this. It
is one thing it is one thing to tout economic
(01:05):
statistics when it comes to this, or when it comes
to that, it is one thing to look as we
can easily do here. We can just look at the
at the month by month inflation rates, and it's been
hovering around two and a half to three percent for
this entire first year of the Trump presidency. That is
substantially substantially better than it was during really the entirety
(01:26):
actually of the Bid administration, infamously have reached a nine
point one percent high all the way back in the
summer of twenty twenty two. So, whether it's inflation, whether
it's the whether it's the price of gasoline at the pump. Amazingly,
the average price of gasoline the pump has come under
three dollars on average in thirty seven states or actually
reports just the other day of in some places in
(01:48):
Colorado in the Centennial State of the price of gas
the pump getting as low as a dollar sixty nine.
I'm not saying that was in Denver, but I mean
that's crazy. I mean, think about the last time that
you saw a dollar sixty nine gasoline really anywhere. I'm
not even sure that I could tell you I'm frankly
not sure that if it was anywhere, that'll load during
the entire four years of the first Trump term.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
But the point is this.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
We can toss around these numbers, talk about this all
we want, but if the American people aren't feeling it,
if the American people are not feeling it, then that
ultimately is all that matters. The record is one thing,
The statistics are one thing. But who's the economy there
to serve? Is the economy there to serve the incumbent
(02:30):
party or the opposition party's political fortune. Is the economy
there to serve stock market investors, speculators, investment bankers, hedge
fund managers. No, the economy is there to serve all
of us. As is often said, we the people have
an economy. The economy does not have we the people.
It's somewhat of a platitude. Is someone tried to even
say that, But it happens to be the case. And
(02:51):
when you look at what we the people are actually
saying when it comes to their view of the administration
more generally and of the economy perhaps in particular, there
are some warning signs well, like we see it here
in the Josh shammershell, and we're not afraid to say
that some things simply have to change. So, for instance,
looking at the Real Clear Politics average of President Donald
Trump's total job approval rating, he has a nine point
(03:15):
underwater spread at this point. Tier based on the average,
his approval rating is typically in the low to mid forties,
depending on the poll. Harry Enton, our friend over at CNN,
who will have on the show, probably in the next
couple weeks. If I had to guess, we'll bring him
back on. Harry Enton's been saying that at this point
in the second term, Donald Trum's approval rating is historically low.
(03:37):
Now it's not objectively speaking minus nine, it's not minus
double digits. It seemed like it actually, frankly could be worse.
And certainly Joe bidenessprowerre rating for large swaths of his
first term are actually worse. The relevant point that Harry's
making when he says that is this, Presidents typically get
a second term because they did well the first term.
(03:58):
Donald Trump's first term actually very much was a smashing success.
I happen to think that the first term of this
presidency is the first year of the second term. Excuse
me of this presidency is going very well as well,
whether it comes to border crossings in the Southern border
which have plummeted to near zero. When it comes to
all of the amazing peace deals that have been secured
all around the world, when it comes to the courageous
(04:19):
operations who try to clean up America cities with the
National Guard cooperation, the ICE, the Ice raids, the righteous
crusades against higher education, the very very successful Department of
Justice led by Pam Bond DNS and its Slicster General
the United States, John Sower. They're doing an amazing job.
From a DOJ litigation respective, there there's a lot to
love about this administration, folks. But again, the point that
(04:44):
I'm making to you is that what's happening currently is
simply just not resonating, at least above all when it
comes to the economy. So overall down Trum nine points
underwater right now in the real clear politics average on
the approval disapproval rating, Harry Nton of CNN saying that
is historically low when it comes to a second term
president at this juncture. In a second term, you probably
(05:05):
have to go back to George W. Bush, who had
a catastrophically unpopular second term during the Benat or the
lowest point of the Iraq War, that was the Petraeus
counter concerns and all that. You don't want to repeat that,
You definitely, definitely don't want to repeat that. All you
have to do is look to the two thousand and
eight presidential election, the massive landside for Obama over McCain
(05:26):
to know what happens when you start going down that
path of a deeply unpopular second term presidency. Trump's not
there yet, thankfully, there's still tom turns around. But on
the economy in particular, it's not great currently. Again, according
to the Real Clear Politics average President Trump's approval metrics
on the economy, he's an average of fifteen point one
points underwater. He has a net approval rating on average
(05:48):
when it comes to the economy in particular of forty
point seven percent, so nearly forty percent. The proveer rating
actually goes down even further in some polls, so CBS
News and Reuter Ipsos among the pollsters that have him
in the mid thirties thirty six percent approval rating. Now
we can do the whole why thing, and indeed, you know,
(06:11):
you know, Donald Trump frankly has been asking why a lot.
So for instance, you know here he was Actually he
did this long sit down interview with Dosha Burns of Politico,
one of the more intellectually on his journalists. By the way,
Dosha Burns deserves some credits. We gave her some praise
back during the twenty twenty two senatorial race in the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It was back then recalled this is
(06:33):
when John Fetterman had the stroke. He was clearly not
well on the campaign trail. I don't know if y'all
remember that infamous debate that he had against doctor Oz,
the general election debate for these twenty twenty two Pennsylvania race. Well,
the entire media cabal there in Pennsylvania, both the local
press corps and above all the national press Corps was
totally carrying water at the time for John Fetterman. Dosha Burns,
(06:56):
who at the time was with NBC, now she's with Politico.
She was one of the only journal less who was
actually willing to call a spade a spade and to
just say it, like literally just say what the American
people were seeing that is that this guy is clearly
not well. Now you know all's well that ends well.
I mean John Fairman has has some health issues since then.
He's actually proved to be one of the brighter spots
in the Senate Democratic Caucus. For its worth, not necessarily
(07:19):
saying a whole lot these days anyway, Doshah Burns deserves
a credit as a rare intellectually honest journalist among the
mainstream national press scores. So Donald Trump sat down with
Dodshe Burns for a for a long interview earlier this week,
just a couple of days ago. And here was Donald
Trump talking about how the economy, based on how he
rates it is an A.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus. Go ahead
and watch this. But I do want to talk about
the economy, sir, here at home. And I wonder what
grade you would give A plus A plus A plus
plus plus plus plus. Okay.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
So again, there's a few things going on here. One
Trump's politician. Okay, He's going to try and spin what's happening,
to try to try to try to boost his standing,
to try to boost his stature, and try to just
convey confidence. But the conveying of confidence goes two ways.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
You see.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Here is here is the interesting part when it comes
to the economy. So John Maynor kaines not necessarily one
of our favorite economists here on the Josh Shammer Show.
He's probably the most well known left wing liberal economists
of the entire twentieth century. But John Maynor Kain's among
the famous lines that he coined there was he referred
to this notion of the animal spirits, which it kind
(08:32):
of sounds kind of pagan and not biblical. Hold that aside,
but this notion of animal spirits conjures up that you
just have to get people starting feeling confident again, whether
it comes to economic statecraft or frankly, when it comes
to trying to incentivize child rearing, trying to boost fertility rates.
So much of public policy, staatecraft and political leadership more
generally comes in just trying to instill hope and confidence
(08:56):
in optimism in the people. This ends up being some
thing of a feedback loop when it comes to economic
public policy, and economic staatecraft in particular. Think about how
economic commentators economists more generally talk about the economy. They'll
say that inflation expectations have have lowered or raised. Well,
we're talking here about inflation expectations. Well, what's going to
(09:18):
happen If inflation expectations go up, You'll start to save
more money there, So there's there's there's a relationship then
between expectations and reality. So part of the job of
economic stakecraft is not necessarily to implement executive orders and
to legislate from Congress. There's obviously a role for that
(09:39):
very much. So part of it is just trying to
instill confidence. So I totally understand what Donald Trump is
doing here in this interview with dosher Burns. On the
other hand, you genuinely run the risk, mister President, of
coming across as out of touch. I hate to say it,
but I'm just gonna call it like I see it.
You run the risk of being out of touch when
your economic Ruber ratings are fifteen points underwater on average,
(10:03):
and you're saying that the economy is currently an A.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Plus plus plus plus plus.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I had to make sure I got the correct number
of pluses there, and that vintage TRUMPI and answer to
Dosta Burns, a politica, you run the risk of coming
acrosses out of touch. This is what Joe Biden did,
or mora acculately what Joe Biden's handlers did for years,
think about Jared Bernstein, his economic advisor, think about Kareem
Jean Pierre. Thank god, we're not dealing with her anymore.
By the way, when it comes to the White House
(10:28):
Press Secretary, Press secretory position, from the lectern there in
the White House, that's what they did, the Biden economic
spin masters, the spinmeisters, which try over and over again
to try to say the commune is actually really good.
Why American people, why are you not just loving the
economic profit that we're selling, And ultimately they were rejected.
They were rejected, or more accurately, Kamala Harris was rejected
(10:50):
after the bloodless coup of Joe Biden last summer, and
they're rejected for that there.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
So this is a serious rex, the serious risk.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Of coming across as overconfidence.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
So what is one of these solutions here? Well, won
the solutions.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
According to Susie Wilds, who was the chief of staff
of the White House, that'saw her doing some media rounds.
Susie's been doing some more media recently, which is kind
of interesting in and of itself, and she's been saying
that she wants to get convinced Donald Trump to get
out there on the campaign trail and campaign on the
economy and more generally in advance of the twenty twenty
six midterms next November, now eleven months away, to get
(11:25):
out there in campaign just like it's twenty sixteen, twenty twenty,
or twenty twenty four. So on that note, Donald Trump
was in Pennsylvania just last night. He was in the
all important swing state of Pennsylvania. He was at a
casino in Mount Poco. I'm about two hour drive give
or take north of Philadelphia, a very beautiful part of
the country for those of you who have who have
been there, and if you have not been there there,
(11:45):
perhaps you will go ahead and give it a visit.
So Donald Trump speaking at this rally in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania.
Here just a couple of things that he was said
that he was saying last night. Go ahead and watch
him talking about trying to slash taxes on certain types
of income.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Go ahead and watch this.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
We're also putting thousands of dollars in the pockets of
hard working Pennsylvanians with the largest tax cuts in American history.
That's no tax on tips, no tax on over time,
no tax on social Security for our great seniors are seniors,
no tax all right.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
So no no tax on tips is a very good policy.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
I was supportive of during the campaign trail when he
first unveiled it out in Nevada, which has a hue,
you know, a huge industry of people who work at casinos,
work in hospitality, and rely on tips. I was supportive
of it when he unveiled on the campaign trail. I
still am. No taxes on Social Security is a little
more complicated because those Social Security taxes are a large
part of the way that you pay for Social Security,
(12:41):
which is already going bankrupt asap and is already something
of a Ponzi scheme. Moreover, so I'm a little more
lukewarm on that. Certainly, tax relief more generally is something
that should be a concerted push as part of the
reconciliation package.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Next next falls.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
So taxes are kind of quintessential Article one section a
congressional authority in America's tripark Light separation of powers constitutional structure,
there is a core congressional power. There's really only so
much you can do when it comes to direct tax
relief via via the pen, via the executive order.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Maneuver.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
You really do need Congress to get involved here. So certainly,
when you have this once a year reconciliation package where
you're able to get around the threat of filibuster, as
long as you were doing so in a way that
the Center Parlementarian rules that you are reducing the budget deficit,
you're going to have to make some sort of effort
to really reduce the tax burden, especially for the working
and the middle class. That's going to have to happen.
(13:38):
It's going to have to be a non negotiable item, frankly,
in the legislative push come twenty twenty six, ideally sooner
rather than later in the year twenty twenty six. Here's
a little bit more from Donald Trump in Mount pokin On, Pennsylvania,
speaking about trying to help our farmers out when it
comes to direct relief. Go ahead and watch President Trump
from last night in Pensylvania.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Some countries played a little cute and we just gave
them right out of the tariff money. Course, there's nothing
right out of the billion, hundreds of billions that we've
taken in. We gave the farmers a little help twelve
billion dollars and they are so happy and they all
they want is a level playing field, and now it's happening,
(14:18):
and the tariffs are making them rich.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
It's gonna be You're.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Gonna see, You're gonna see what happens over the next
two years. It's like a miracle is taken place. But
we've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars, really trillions. Scott,
we have the great Scott Passant. Scott stand up. And
if you add to that all of the companies that
(14:42):
are pouring their money to building right now, building plants
in Pennsylvania and many other states, auto plants, AI plants,
plants of every type, which we would have never had
if we didn't put the tariffs on. Did you see
what Europe now is saying. I think we're going to
start doing what Trump is doing.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Okay, So the tarrort conversation is a more complicated one,
and we recently had on oron Cash, the chief economist
of American Compass, for an in depth conversation on that.
Make sure to go ahead and check out that conversation
with oron Cass if you want some more granular detail
on the tariff conversation. It is worth noting this among
other things. One is worth noting that inflation which is
(15:21):
currently as we said, according to the Bureau of Libortistics,
currently around three percent on a month by month basis,
that's not massively high. It is higher than two point
three percent, which is what it was in early April,
around the time that Donald Trump had that much value
hood sign that he was holding on so called Liberation
Day in the White House Rose Garden, unveiling much of
(15:42):
the tariffs that are still in place. Say so, it
has gone up, it has not gone up a tremendous amount.
We can quibble as to the extent to which what
the people, what these citizens with the voters are now
telling pulsers, they're reporting, you know, sticker shock essentially when
it comes to everything from chicken and produce and eggs
(16:03):
at the supermarket to home building and home instruction. There
we can quibble as to whether or not the terrorists
have a lot to do with it. I don't think
it has a ton to do with it. I do
think it probably has a little to do with it,
or on the other hands, whether or not it is
the Biden inflation that is just taking long time. Frankly,
in this case years to then actually reflect itself when
(16:23):
it comes to sticker shock, when it comes to menu
prices at restaurants and things like that, it probably is
more of the latter than the former. But the relevant points,
again to kind of hit our main themes today show
the relevant point is that it doesn't really matter at
this point necessarily who is to blame. It doesn't necessarily
even matter at this point what these statistics are. What matters,
and what matters above all for the Republican Party as
(16:45):
it heads into what looks like a potentially very very
ominous interim election next fall. What matters is what the
American people say. That is politics. Politics is meeting the
people where they are. Yes, you try to guide them gently,
you try to gently nudge them when they are in
an incorrect spot. You try to lead with clarity and
(17:06):
conviction and so forth there. But you have to meet
the people where they are. And the people right now
are not super duper happy. When it comes to the economy.
By the way, this specific notion of a twelve billion
dollar bailout for America's farmers, I hate to say it,
but this bailout probably would not have been necessary were
not for the tariffs in the first place. We're talking
(17:26):
here about bailing out farmers for certain types of goods
that have tariffs on them, and because then you have
tariffs and you have retributive terroriffs, and a lot of
these farmers have not been able to export a lot
of their goods when it comes to things like soybean
farmers out in Iowa place like that. There. So I'm
happy that America's farmers are being helped, but there's a
(17:48):
very real argument we made that none of this bailout
would have frankly been necessary at all were it not
for the tariffs in the first place. Now to say
that the trudministration has to make a concerted first when
it comes to the economy, which they absolutely should do,
when it comes to trying to get tax relief in
the reconciliation package, when it comes to working with Red states,
(18:10):
working with Republican states, when it comes to streamlining the
costs of constructing and building new homes. This is really
one of the biggest most pressing financial economic issues facing
young Americans at this time is the incredibly daunting price
of new home ownership in America. Take it from me,
I am very much in that position. Myself, I speak
(18:30):
of what I know in this particular case. There, So
the administration, there's not a ton you can do at
a federal level here other than the broader debate when
it comes to the FED, when it comes to interest rates,
mortgage policy, things like that. There, I'll tell you the
fifty year mortgage policy is not the way to do this.
We discussed that on a previous show at the time.
But what the administration can do is they can show
(18:51):
leadership from their public policy team, from the Domestic Policy Council.
They can get involved and call up Governor Abbott in Texas,
Governor de sant This here in Florida, Governor Lee and Tennessee,
call up some of the major red state governors and
try to work with them on granular state legislative policy,
trying to try to cut red tape, to trim the
(19:13):
costs of regulation and the cost of surveying and permitting
and all the various things that are now contributing to
exorbit into home ownership prices in far too many states
in America. That is a quintessential area for state and
local authority is a police power. It's not one of
the numery powers of the federal governments. But it's relevant
for the federal government, it's relevant for the incoming political
(19:35):
part of Republicans, because again, you need to get those
animal spirits flowing. You have to get the people start
spending and be confident again and just feeling like they
are a part of this economy, that this rising tide
really actually is lifting all boats there. Only if that happens,
then do Republicans really have any chance of being successful
in the elections next fall. Now, one thing that I
(19:57):
do hear from a lot of folks talking here about
the new concerted efforts, Shusey Wilder saying that Trump's going
to hit the campaign trial, He's going to campaign his
rear end off. When it comes to the economy, I
do hear a lot of folks, including even some rather weak,
shall I say, a voice on the right, saying that
Trump should abandon his immigration agenda, just focus on the economy.
What's this whole immigration thing there? And no, that is wrong.
(20:20):
That also is wildly, wildly, wildly wrong. Immigration is Trump's issue.
Immigration has been Trump's issue. Trump won two presidential elections
and came awfully close to winning a third, and a
deeply contested election a deeply contested year, or more generally,
he won these elections with immigration as his core issue.
(20:41):
You ask one hundred voters out there, how many of
them will say that immigration is Donald Trump's number one issue?
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Ninety five and.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
Maybe five to ten will say the economy just because
it's Trump. He's a billionaire, he's been successful in real estate,
a blah blah blah blah blah. But he's an immigration guy.
So the people know what they knew, what they voted for.
There is nothing surprising whatsoever about what Chrissy Noam and
Tom Homer doing when it comes to the ice raids,
when it comes to working on border wall construction on
(21:10):
the US Mexico border, when it comes to getting illegal
border crossings and encounters with CBP down to near zero,
which he has done has been ninety plus pcent reduction
from the Biden era. There amazing stuff there, and the polls,
by the way, bear this out.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
So I was.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Reading this recent post from Ryan Gerdusky, who is an
excellent subsacker. I encourage you to go ahead and check
out Ryan Subsack. He subsacts at a place called the
National Populist Newsletter. I was reading just some data about this.
Naturalized immigrants, so ones who can vote legally are split
on how Trump has handled immigration, forty one percent saying
(21:47):
has been too tough, forty percent saying his approach has
been about right or not tough enough. So it's basically
a coin flip about how immigrants themselves feel about Trump's
immigration policy.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
How about Hispanic.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Americans more generally, well, Trump's overall approval rating among Latinos
actually mirrors that very much of other American voters. His
approval rating is roughly the same among immigrants as it
is with the general public.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
You know.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Again, they're in the low forties, as we discussed earlier
in the show. So there's all sorts of pulling data
to suggest that Hispanic voters, immigrants, really none of them are,
are out of step with the American people more broadly
when it comes to Donald Trump's immigration agenda. So I
see very little, if any reason for Donald Trump we
(22:34):
start to back away from immigration. What I'm saying instead
is to just focus on the economy. You can walk
into gum the same time. You don't have to give
up the economy on immigration. You don't have to give up, frankly,
on anything you don't have to give up on your
righteous crusades against higher education. Try to get these these
these settlements from more offensive I League schools that are
(22:56):
blatantly offending the Civil Rights Act when it comes to
discrimination against white people, Christians, Asians, Jews, etc. There all
that can stay. All that is very good stuff there.
But every single day, every single day, the White House
and Republican leadership in the Congress should begin their day
and say what can I do today to get this
(23:17):
administration's economic messaging and policy in a place where it's
more popular with the American people. That should be the
first question in the morning. When you go to sleep
at night, you should say what did I do that
day to further these goals of making sure the American
people know that this economy is not only objectively good
(23:38):
on a statistical or metrics basis, but it's actually working
for them. That is the most important thing. Because there
was just there was a yet another data point last night.
And I'm not going to freak ot about this, but
it is another interesting data point indicating that there are
potentially some darker things in the future for next year's
midterms if this doesn't turn around. So for instance, here
(23:58):
in South Florida, where I live, a Democrat. A Democrat
just won the city of Miami's mayoral race for the
first time in nearly three decades.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Now, this isn't.
Speaker 1 (24:08):
Quite as shocking as it as it might be. That's
why I'm hedging here very much. The city of Miami
did break very mildly by a couple points or so
for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the twenty twenty
four presidential election. Moreover, Miami Dade County, which is the
broader county that the smaller city of Miami is Miami
Day County, continues to be a red bastion. It broke
(24:30):
for Disantis by double digit points in twenty twenty two,
continued to vote for Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. Also,
the timing of this runoff election was really, really, really bizarre,
happening here between Thanksgiving and Christmas, very similar to the
special election in Tennessee's seventh Congressional district last week. Very
bizarre timing, very very low turnout election as well. Actually,
(24:51):
the combined turnout of the combined vote total of the
two candidates ends up being under forty thousand people, so low,
low turnout election off year, bad timing. Having said all that,
still a big deal, is it not? I mean, it's
still not a not small deal. I'll put it to
you that way. It's very much not a small deal.
So you have Eileen Higgins, who's a former county commissioner
(25:15):
in Miami Day County, who did become the first Democrat
to win the mayor election in the City of Miami
in nearly three decades. Let's go ahead and then take
a listen briefly to Iileen Higgins, the mayor elect in
the City of Miami, Florida.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
We will lead a city that belongs to everyone, a
city where seniors can stay, young people can build a future,
Immigrants feel welcomed and respected.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
All right, So Higgins won by eight points.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Now Democrats have a five points voter registration evanage in
city of Miami. Again, I don't think this is a
huge deal, but it's not a small deal. Francis Worreez,
who is the very moderate, very very moderate Republican mayor Miami,
has been in charge for a while.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Now.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Your mileage may vary as to whether or not you
like his track record, but if nothing else, he was
more broadly speaking on the side of freedom and capitalism.
And I'm kind of using platitotonists buzzwords deliberately because Swarz
didn't really stand for a whole lot other than that.
But at a minimum, he was better than the opposition there.
So will Higgins continue this momentum that has really boosted
(26:23):
South Florida to one of the top economic engines in America.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
It'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Higgins will certainly have some opposition in Tallahassee when it
comes to Governor Santis there. But when you look at that,
when you look at the tighter margin of the Tennessee
special election that recently happens, when you look at ma'am don,
you're getting not just a plurality, but a majority in
New York City. When you look at Jay Jones, who
wants that he wanted to kill his political opponents, winning
(26:51):
the Virginia attorney general election. There there are more than
enough data points now when it comes to the election,
when it comes to the polls to say that this
is now a five alarm fire. This a five alarm fire. No, Look,
the foreign stuff is important. We care certainly a lot
about foreign affairs. We care a lot about trying to
(27:12):
get a piece deal between Russia and Ukraine. I care
a lot about trying to stop the drug cartels and
the traffickers in Central America. We've been strong proponents here
of the prophilactive preemptive strikes on the Narco boats. We've
been strong supporters of Pete Hegseth and all they're doing
there when it comes to strikes on the boats. But
all that stuff just pales in comparison. As important as
(27:32):
I think it is, as important as you may think
it is, It's a comedy first economy always, and unless
and until the e comedy just starts really revving again,
Republicans really could be in something of a world of hurts.
That is our That is our main takeaway message, certainly
for today.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
The one way that they could potentially not be in
a world of her There's actually very interesting case at
the Supreme Court yesterday. Depending on how this case comes
out out, how a related case comes out, Republicans could
potentially have their chances mitigated or their likelihood of losses
mitigated come Fall twenty twenty six. So the case yesterday
(28:13):
was nrsc's National Republican Centorial Committee versus FEC Federal Election Commission,
involving whether or not the statutory limits on how much
a political party can spend on a political candidate directly
coordinate with that candidate, Whether that statatory limit is constitutional,
whether it is a First Amendment violation somewhat difficult to
tell when it comes to reading the tea leaves of
(28:35):
this argument, Amy Cony Barrett. When the swing justice was silence,
Neil Gorstich was broadly silent as well. This is in
a long line of cases, very much including the controversial
Citizens United case of twenty ten involving campaign finance laws
and their interaction with the First Amendments. One of the
interesting things that Breck Havanaugh, another swing justice, raised at
Yessay's argument in this case NRSC versus FEC. The interesting
(28:59):
thing that Kavanaugh said is that the effect of Sis
United and all these laws have had the effect have
had the effects of restricting the extent to which political
parties can directly spend money and emboldening outside third party actors. Packs,
corporate packs, political packs, things like that. They're not necessarily
the best thing for democracy, say a lot of people there,
(29:21):
so that might be another reason to possibly try to
abolish or to hold this law is not constitutional. Now,
what I was saying though, is that depending on how
this goes out, there are some Republicans, some consultants and
so forth. There folks like Chris la Savita, who was
a longtime Trump intercircle hands Tony Fabrizio who was a
longtime Trump polster. They did apparently just over this past weekend,
(29:43):
there was some RNC donor retreat and they said this
past weekend that the ruling on this case as well
as the forthcoming ruling when it comes to congressional redition.
So Republicans already got a win in the text redistioning case,
is going to be some other redistioning cases as well
evolving the Voting Rights Act, very very very high profile
voting rights litigation. So depending on how that case comes out,
(30:06):
depending on how this case comes out, say Chris los
Avita and Tony Fabrizio, that could actually help Republicans at
the ballot in twenty twenty six. But the point that
I will make is this, you don't want to rely
on the court, guys. You don't want to rely on
the court to do the right thing. The number of
times that politicians have relied on the court to do
the right thing and then have been utterly disappointed. It's
too high to count, you know, the terroriffs. By the way,
(30:28):
there is currently a massive tariff case. The entire legal
argument behind Donald Trump's tariffs, namely this Jimmy Carter era
late nineteen seventies emergency statue. The entire legitimacy of invoking
that statute for these tariffs is currently pending before the
court too. You don't really want to do that. You
want to have backup plans in place there. You don't
want to rely on the court there. So I would
(30:49):
encourage the Republicans, don't rely on the court doing the
right thing. Get out there and actually do the right thing.
That is a much, much, much safer task overall. Now,
I want to talk a little here in the final
minutes of the show about something quite a bit different
about me. Means to do this for the past couple
of days, I just haven't necessarily had the time. We'll
(31:10):
see if I how emotional I got here. I don't necessarily.
I think I've only cried once on this show. It
was after Charlie Kirk was assassinated, And we will see.
I suppose if that happens again today, I'm not entirely sure.
My daughter turns on one year old this Saturday. She
was born on December thirteenth of last year, and we
(31:32):
did her We had our birthday party this past Sunday
here in South Florida where we live, and we called
it her first rodeo, you know, like her first rodeo,
just kind of a it's you know, it's very common phrase, right,
it's not my first rodeo, Okay, So this was her
first rodeo. And we worked with the vendors. We had
the decorations, the drink state, We had a drink station
(31:54):
was called her watering hole. We had like a little barn.
We got ponies and farm animals. We had like like
a ball pit in balloons for the kids. It was
a really really, really beautiful event. And my wife deserves
all the credit in the world. I cut the check.
She did all the work. Amazing stuff, I mean, working
with the vendor that that we worked with there. And
(32:15):
when you walked in this party, my wife had this
had had this montage where we took our daughter and
there was a photo of every month of her life
from one month until til say until she's one year old,
and every time I looked at that, I just started
I just started crying. I mean, I just could not
hold back the emotions. Not only because she's beautiful, which
(32:38):
she is, not only because she's amazing, which she is.
She's actually in like I think it's the ninety eighth
percentile for weight and the ninety fift percentile for height,
So she's a big girl. She's physically flourishing, and she's
flourishing in every other way that a baby can be
flourishing as well.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
So it's that's amazing. But can't believe it.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
I just cannot believe how fast this has gone. And
I realized that this is like the most cliche thing ever, right,
I mean, I mean, first time father, can't believe how
quickly you Okay, but here I am. And it just
feels like it went away in the blink of an eye.
It feels like just yesterday. I was in the shower
actually when my wife yelled my water broke. It was
(33:22):
last December. I was like, oh my god, what do
we do? What do we do? I haven't packed a
bag for the hospital.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
What do we do?
Speaker 1 (33:30):
She was actually much much calmer than eye that situation.
So we packed the bag, went to the hospital, and
you know, praise be to God, our baby was born
healthy and beautiful the next afternoon, less than twenty four
hours later. But it just feels like it went by
so fast, and at the risk of staying the obvious,
I guess my message would be this, think of life
(33:52):
as follows. Try to think of life as someone once
told me. You have a jar, and you try to
fill the jar with certain marbles, and the marbles can
be multicolored. We can have green marbles, blue marbles, red marbles,
whatever you want to First fill the cup with the
(34:13):
most important type of marbles, and that's how you should
try to live every single day of your life. I
am not pard of this. I fail.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
We all fail. We're humans, we're made in God's image.
We are not God.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
But you try to fill your cup every day of
your life to the extent possible with the most important
things in your life. In my life, the most important
things are pretty clear. It's God first, it's family second,
(34:49):
and then it's everything else. It's my job, my country,
all the things that I care about. And then we
talk about every day on this show, and my recent
dated routine has been more or less trying to do
that in order. So I recently changed my day day routine.
I wake up very early nowadays. I wake up around
five am, give or take. I am in synagogue by
(35:13):
six am, give or take, ready for the for morning prayers.
I get home by around seven point thirty give or take.
I have some quality time with my wife and our
baby in the morning there helping, helping feed, and to
play and to just try to entertain all of that
really before I kind of sit down and begin to
(35:35):
do my actual job for the day. Now easier seven
than done. Everyone's life is different, everyone's schedule is different.
There it's not easy. It's really hard actually to try
to balance all the amount of things that human beings
have to balance over the course of your day. It's
really difficult as well to balance everything over the course
(35:55):
of a week or a lifetime. Charlie Kirk has a
brand new book out posthumously. His wife Erica has been
doing the media rounds promoting it. The book is called
Stop in the Name of God. It's a book about
the Sabbath. Charlie was an evangelical Christian, but was very,
(36:19):
very very inspired by the Hebrew Bible by the Torah.
He studied the Torah with Dennis Praeger. Many of his mentors,
intellectual mentors and closest friends kept the Sabbath or some
version of it, and Charlie would really turn his phone
off when Orthodox Jews like myself do from Friday night
to Saturday night. It's an amazing built in gift from
(36:42):
God trying to give you the freedom, the ability to
fill your cup up with the most important marbles, to
focus on God, on the creator of all things, to
focus on your family with no distractions, with a clear head.
But only by living. I think with that kind of deliberation,
(37:07):
with that kind of conscientious prioritization of that which you
are doing each and every day, I've come to think
that that really is the best way to live your life.
When I was a little younger, I was a little
I was a little more scattershot. I didn't have a family,
I wasn't particularly observant or religious at that time. I
(37:27):
wouldn't send alarm. Maybe I would if I had, like
the office or the work whatever, But I would sleep
in a little bit and I would kind of just
play the day as it goes, play it by ear
day in and day out. But you should have more structure,
and that structure should reflect what your life priorities. That
structure should reflect the most important marbles that they are
(37:48):
going to be filled. First, and as a first time father,
now on the cusp of celebrating our daughter's first birthday
this Saturday, after we just had this wonderful rodeo Western
theme party for her this past Sunday, I truly feel
has never been more important. I truly feel that it's
(38:11):
never more important for me to cling to this, to
cherish every moment, what ultimately is going to be more important?
What am I going to remember a year or two
from now that memory of being goofy with her in
the living room at eight eight thirty am, or scrolling
(38:32):
Twitter or reading some article on the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
You have to do your job, you have to do
it well. Again, these things are easier said than done.
And I don't judge anyone who struggles with these trade offs.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
I do too. We all do.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
Again, We're human. But try the best you can to
fill that cup each and every day with the most
important marbles. Can promise you. But if you do that,
and you make a conscientious effort to do exactly that.
Then you're going to be happier, and you will feel
(39:08):
more fulfilled, and you will feel more confident in all
that you do on a data basis moving forward. So look,
I mean, I wish my daughter a very happy first birthday.
To put the mildly, it's been an amazing, amazing year
and I can't wait to see where she goes from here.
I hope that advice resonates with you, and we thank
you was always for listener watching to The Josh Hammer Show.
(39:30):
Make sure to like and subscribe if you have not
already done, so leave with that five star review. We
alway appreciate your feedback. We're on YouTube over on Newsweek's
a YouTube page also available the Salem News Channel. But
for now I'm Josh Hammer. I hope you enjoyed today's
episode of The Josh Hammershow.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
The Josh Hammer Show is a member of the Trust Project.
Donald Trump trying an economic reset, going to the crucial
swing state of Pennsylvania, trying to get a jumpstart on
the twenty twenty six midterm push. It's going to be
all hands on deck for Donald Trump on the midterm
campaign trail. Can he salvage your pulling in Congress next fall? Meanwhile,
here in South Florida, a mayoral election goes against Republicans
(00:20):
for the first time in three decades? What does all
this mean for the midterms? All that much more? In
say's episode of the Josh Hammershew, Well, if you've been
listening to the show for a while now, you know
that one of our major themes is that it is
still the economy stupid. This does not require a data
scientist or a space engineer to try to figure out
(00:43):
why that is the case. Simply put, it is the
case because the American people just don't feel that the
economy is necessarily working for them. And we're going to
get to Donald Trump's perspective on this, that we're going
to get to public policy, We're going to get to
all that, and just a moment there, but right out
of the gates, I want to just say this. It
is one thing it is one thing to tout economic
(01:05):
statistics when it comes to this, or when it comes
to that, it is one thing to look as we
can easily do here. We can just look at the
at the month by month inflation rates, and it's been
hovering around two and a half to three percent for
this entire first year of the Trump presidency. That is
substantially substantially better than it was during really the entirety
(01:26):
actually of the Bid administration, infamously have reached a nine
point one percent high all the way back in the
summer of twenty twenty two. So, whether it's inflation, whether
it's the whether it's the price of gasoline at the pump. Amazingly,
the average price of gasoline the pump has come under
three dollars on average in thirty seven states or actually
reports just the other day of in some places in
(01:48):
Colorado in the Centennial State of the price of gas
the pump getting as low as a dollar sixty nine.
I'm not saying that was in Denver, but I mean
that's crazy. I mean, think about the last time that
you saw a dollar sixty nine gasoline really anywhere. I'm
not even sure that I could tell you I'm frankly
not sure that if it was anywhere, that'll load during
the entire four years of the first Trump term.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
But the point is this.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
We can toss around these numbers, talk about this all
we want, but if the American people aren't feeling it,
if the American people are not feeling it, then that
ultimately is all that matters. The record is one thing,
The statistics are one thing. But who's the economy there
to serve? Is the economy there to serve the incumbent
(02:30):
party or the opposition party's political fortune. Is the economy
there to serve stock market investors, speculators, investment bankers, hedge
fund managers. No, the economy is there to serve all
of us. As is often said, we the people have
an economy. The economy does not have we the people.
It's somewhat of a platitude. Is someone tried to even
say that, But it happens to be the case. And
(02:51):
when you look at what we the people are actually
saying when it comes to their view of the administration
more generally and of the economy perhaps in particular, there
are some warning signs well, like we see it here
in the Josh shammershell, and we're not afraid to say
that some things simply have to change. So, for instance,
looking at the Real Clear Politics average of President Donald
Trump's total job approval rating, he has a nine point
(03:15):
underwater spread at this point. Tier based on the average,
his approval rating is typically in the low to mid forties,
depending on the poll. Harry Enton, our friend over at CNN,
who will have on the show, probably in the next
couple weeks. If I had to guess, we'll bring him
back on. Harry Enton's been saying that at this point
in the second term, Donald Trum's approval rating is historically low.
(03:37):
Now it's not objectively speaking minus nine, it's not minus
double digits. It seemed like it actually, frankly could be worse.
And certainly Joe bidenessprowerre rating for large swaths of his
first term are actually worse. The relevant point that Harry's
making when he says that is this, Presidents typically get
a second term because they did well the first term.
(03:58):
Donald Trump's first term actually very much was a smashing success.
I happen to think that the first term of this
presidency is the first year of the second term. Excuse
me of this presidency is going very well as well,
whether it comes to border crossings in the Southern border
which have plummeted to near zero. When it comes to
all of the amazing peace deals that have been secured
all around the world, when it comes to the courageous
(04:19):
operations who try to clean up America cities with the
National Guard cooperation, the ICE, the Ice raids, the righteous
crusades against higher education, the very very successful Department of
Justice led by Pam Bond DNS and its Slicster General
the United States, John Sower. They're doing an amazing job.
From a DOJ litigation respective, there there's a lot to
love about this administration, folks. But again, the point that
(04:44):
I'm making to you is that what's happening currently is
simply just not resonating, at least above all when it
comes to the economy. So overall down Trum nine points
underwater right now in the real clear politics average on
the approval disapproval rating, Harry Nton of CNN saying that
is historically low when it comes to a second term
president at this juncture. In a second term, you probably
(05:05):
have to go back to George W. Bush, who had
a catastrophically unpopular second term during the Benat or the
lowest point of the Iraq War, that was the Petraeus
counter concerns and all that. You don't want to repeat that,
You definitely, definitely don't want to repeat that. All you
have to do is look to the two thousand and
eight presidential election, the massive landside for Obama over McCain
(05:26):
to know what happens when you start going down that
path of a deeply unpopular second term presidency. Trump's not
there yet, thankfully, there's still tom turns around. But on
the economy in particular, it's not great currently. Again, according
to the Real Clear Politics average President Trump's approval metrics
on the economy, he's an average of fifteen point one
points underwater. He has a net approval rating on average
(05:48):
when it comes to the economy in particular of forty
point seven percent, so nearly forty percent. The proveer rating
actually goes down even further in some polls, so CBS
News and Reuter Ipsos among the pollsters that have him
in the mid thirties thirty six percent approval rating. Now
we can do the whole why thing, and indeed, you know,
(06:11):
you know, Donald Trump frankly has been asking why a lot.
So for instance, you know here he was Actually he
did this long sit down interview with Dosha Burns of Politico,
one of the more intellectually on his journalists. By the way,
Dosha Burns deserves some credits. We gave her some praise
back during the twenty twenty two senatorial race in the
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It was back then recalled this is
(06:33):
when John Fetterman had the stroke. He was clearly not
well on the campaign trail. I don't know if y'all
remember that infamous debate that he had against doctor Oz,
the general election debate for these twenty twenty two Pennsylvania race. Well,
the entire media cabal there in Pennsylvania, both the local
press corps and above all the national press Corps was
totally carrying water at the time for John Fetterman. Dosha Burns,
(06:56):
who at the time was with NBC, now she's with Politico.
She was one of the only journal less who was
actually willing to call a spade a spade and to
just say it, like literally just say what the American
people were seeing that is that this guy is clearly
not well. Now you know all's well that ends well.
I mean John Fairman has has some health issues since then.
He's actually proved to be one of the brighter spots
in the Senate Democratic Caucus. For its worth, not necessarily
(07:19):
saying a whole lot these days anyway, Doshah Burns deserves
a credit as a rare intellectually honest journalist among the
mainstream national press scores. So Donald Trump sat down with
Dodshe Burns for a for a long interview earlier this week,
just a couple of days ago. And here was Donald
Trump talking about how the economy, based on how he
rates it is an A.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Plus plus plus plus plus plus plus plus. Go ahead
and watch this. But I do want to talk about
the economy, sir, here at home. And I wonder what
grade you would give A plus A plus A plus
plus plus plus plus. Okay.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
So again, there's a few things going on here. One
Trump's politician. Okay, He's going to try and spin what's happening,
to try to try to try to boost his standing,
to try to boost his stature, and try to just
convey confidence. But the conveying of confidence goes two ways.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
You see.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Here is here is the interesting part when it comes
to the economy. So John Maynor kaines not necessarily one
of our favorite economists here on the Josh Shammer Show.
He's probably the most well known left wing liberal economists
of the entire twentieth century. But John Maynor Kain's among
the famous lines that he coined there was he referred
to this notion of the animal spirits, which it kind
(08:32):
of sounds kind of pagan and not biblical. Hold that aside,
but this notion of animal spirits conjures up that you
just have to get people starting feeling confident again, whether
it comes to economic statecraft or frankly, when it comes
to trying to incentivize child rearing, trying to boost fertility rates.
So much of public policy, staatecraft and political leadership more
generally comes in just trying to instill hope and confidence
(08:56):
in optimism in the people. This ends up being some
thing of a feedback loop when it comes to economic
public policy, and economic staatecraft in particular. Think about how
economic commentators economists more generally talk about the economy. They'll
say that inflation expectations have have lowered or raised. Well,
we're talking here about inflation expectations. Well, what's going to
(09:18):
happen If inflation expectations go up, You'll start to save
more money there, So there's there's there's a relationship then
between expectations and reality. So part of the job of
economic stakecraft is not necessarily to implement executive orders and
to legislate from Congress. There's obviously a role for that
(09:39):
very much. So part of it is just trying to
instill confidence. So I totally understand what Donald Trump is
doing here in this interview with dosher Burns. On the
other hand, you genuinely run the risk, mister President, of
coming across as out of touch. I hate to say it,
but I'm just gonna call it like I see it.
You run the risk of being out of touch when
your economic Ruber ratings are fifteen points underwater on average,
(10:03):
and you're saying that the economy is currently an A.
Speaker 2 (10:05):
Plus plus plus plus plus.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I had to make sure I got the correct number
of pluses there, and that vintage TRUMPI and answer to
Dosta Burns, a politica, you run the risk of coming
acrosses out of touch. This is what Joe Biden did,
or mora acculately what Joe Biden's handlers did for years,
think about Jared Bernstein, his economic advisor, think about Kareem
Jean Pierre. Thank god, we're not dealing with her anymore.
By the way, when it comes to the White House
(10:28):
Press Secretary, Press secretory position, from the lectern there in
the White House, that's what they did, the Biden economic
spin masters, the spinmeisters, which try over and over again
to try to say the commune is actually really good.
Why American people, why are you not just loving the
economic profit that we're selling, And ultimately they were rejected.
They were rejected, or more accurately, Kamala Harris was rejected
(10:50):
after the bloodless coup of Joe Biden last summer, and
they're rejected for that there.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
So this is a serious rex, the serious risk.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Of coming across as overconfidence.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
So what is one of these solutions here? Well, won
the solutions.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
According to Susie Wilds, who was the chief of staff
of the White House, that'saw her doing some media rounds.
Susie's been doing some more media recently, which is kind
of interesting in and of itself, and she's been saying
that she wants to get convinced Donald Trump to get
out there on the campaign trail and campaign on the
economy and more generally in advance of the twenty twenty
six midterms next November, now eleven months away, to get
(11:25):
out there in campaign just like it's twenty sixteen, twenty twenty,
or twenty twenty four. So on that note, Donald Trump
was in Pennsylvania just last night. He was in the
all important swing state of Pennsylvania. He was at a
casino in Mount Poco. I'm about two hour drive give
or take north of Philadelphia, a very beautiful part of
the country for those of you who have who have
been there, and if you have not been there there,
(11:45):
perhaps you will go ahead and give it a visit.
So Donald Trump speaking at this rally in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania.
Here just a couple of things that he was said
that he was saying last night. Go ahead and watch
him talking about trying to slash taxes on certain types
of income.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Go ahead and watch this.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
We're also putting thousands of dollars in the pockets of
hard working Pennsylvanians with the largest tax cuts in American history.
That's no tax on tips, no tax on over time,
no tax on social Security for our great seniors are seniors,
no tax all right.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
So no no tax on tips is a very good policy.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
I was supportive of during the campaign trail when he
first unveiled it out in Nevada, which has a hue,
you know, a huge industry of people who work at casinos,
work in hospitality, and rely on tips. I was supportive
of it when he unveiled on the campaign trail. I
still am. No taxes on Social Security is a little
more complicated because those Social Security taxes are a large
part of the way that you pay for Social Security,
(12:41):
which is already going bankrupt asap and is already something
of a Ponzi scheme. Moreover, so I'm a little more
lukewarm on that. Certainly, tax relief more generally is something
that should be a concerted push as part of the
reconciliation package.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Next next falls.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
So taxes are kind of quintessential Article one section a
congressional authority in America's tripark Light separation of powers constitutional structure,
there is a core congressional power. There's really only so
much you can do when it comes to direct tax
relief via via the pen, via the executive order.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Maneuver.
Speaker 1 (13:16):
You really do need Congress to get involved here. So certainly,
when you have this once a year reconciliation package where
you're able to get around the threat of filibuster, as
long as you were doing so in a way that
the Center Parlementarian rules that you are reducing the budget deficit,
you're going to have to make some sort of effort
to really reduce the tax burden, especially for the working
and the middle class. That's going to have to happen.
(13:38):
It's going to have to be a non negotiable item, frankly,
in the legislative push come twenty twenty six, ideally sooner
rather than later in the year twenty twenty six. Here's
a little bit more from Donald Trump in Mount pokin On, Pennsylvania,
speaking about trying to help our farmers out when it
comes to direct relief. Go ahead and watch President Trump
from last night in Pensylvania.
Speaker 3 (13:57):
Some countries played a little cute and we just gave
them right out of the tariff money. Course, there's nothing
right out of the billion, hundreds of billions that we've
taken in. We gave the farmers a little help twelve
billion dollars and they are so happy and they all
they want is a level playing field, and now it's happening,
(14:18):
and the tariffs are making them rich.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
It's gonna be You're.
Speaker 3 (14:20):
Gonna see, You're gonna see what happens over the next
two years. It's like a miracle is taken place. But
we've taken in hundreds of billions of dollars, really trillions. Scott,
we have the great Scott Passant. Scott stand up. And
if you add to that all of the companies that
(14:42):
are pouring their money to building right now, building plants
in Pennsylvania and many other states, auto plants, AI plants,
plants of every type, which we would have never had
if we didn't put the tariffs on. Did you see
what Europe now is saying. I think we're going to
start doing what Trump is doing.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Okay, So the tarrort conversation is a more complicated one,
and we recently had on oron Cash, the chief economist
of American Compass, for an in depth conversation on that.
Make sure to go ahead and check out that conversation
with oron Cass if you want some more granular detail
on the tariff conversation. It is worth noting this among
other things. One is worth noting that inflation which is
(15:21):
currently as we said, according to the Bureau of Libortistics,
currently around three percent on a month by month basis,
that's not massively high. It is higher than two point
three percent, which is what it was in early April,
around the time that Donald Trump had that much value
hood sign that he was holding on so called Liberation
Day in the White House Rose Garden, unveiling much of
(15:42):
the tariffs that are still in place. Say so, it
has gone up, it has not gone up a tremendous amount.
We can quibble as to the extent to which what
the people, what these citizens with the voters are now
telling pulsers, they're reporting, you know, sticker shock essentially when
it comes to everything from chicken and produce and eggs
(16:03):
at the supermarket to home building and home instruction. There
we can quibble as to whether or not the terrorists
have a lot to do with it. I don't think
it has a ton to do with it. I do
think it probably has a little to do with it,
or on the other hands, whether or not it is
the Biden inflation that is just taking long time. Frankly,
in this case years to then actually reflect itself when
(16:23):
it comes to sticker shock, when it comes to menu
prices at restaurants and things like that, it probably is
more of the latter than the former. But the relevant points,
again to kind of hit our main themes today show
the relevant point is that it doesn't really matter at
this point necessarily who is to blame. It doesn't necessarily
even matter at this point what these statistics are. What matters,
and what matters above all for the Republican Party as
(16:45):
it heads into what looks like a potentially very very
ominous interim election next fall. What matters is what the
American people say. That is politics. Politics is meeting the
people where they are. Yes, you try to guide them gently,
you try to gently nudge them when they are in
an incorrect spot. You try to lead with clarity and
(17:06):
conviction and so forth there. But you have to meet
the people where they are. And the people right now
are not super duper happy. When it comes to the economy.
By the way, this specific notion of a twelve billion
dollar bailout for America's farmers, I hate to say it,
but this bailout probably would not have been necessary were
not for the tariffs in the first place. We're talking
(17:26):
here about bailing out farmers for certain types of goods
that have tariffs on them, and because then you have
tariffs and you have retributive terroriffs, and a lot of
these farmers have not been able to export a lot
of their goods when it comes to things like soybean
farmers out in Iowa place like that. There. So I'm
happy that America's farmers are being helped, but there's a
(17:48):
very real argument we made that none of this bailout
would have frankly been necessary at all were it not
for the tariffs in the first place. Now to say
that the trudministration has to make a concerted first when
it comes to the economy, which they absolutely should do,
when it comes to trying to get tax relief in
the reconciliation package, when it comes to working with Red states,
(18:10):
working with Republican states, when it comes to streamlining the
costs of constructing and building new homes. This is really
one of the biggest most pressing financial economic issues facing
young Americans at this time is the incredibly daunting price
of new home ownership in America. Take it from me,
I am very much in that position. Myself, I speak
(18:30):
of what I know in this particular case. There, So
the administration, there's not a ton you can do at
a federal level here other than the broader debate when
it comes to the FED, when it comes to interest rates,
mortgage policy, things like that. There, I'll tell you the
fifty year mortgage policy is not the way to do this.
We discussed that on a previous show at the time.
But what the administration can do is they can show
(18:51):
leadership from their public policy team, from the Domestic Policy Council.
They can get involved and call up Governor Abbott in Texas,
Governor de sant This here in Florida, Governor Lee and Tennessee,
call up some of the major red state governors and
try to work with them on granular state legislative policy,
trying to try to cut red tape, to trim the
(19:13):
costs of regulation and the cost of surveying and permitting
and all the various things that are now contributing to
exorbit into home ownership prices in far too many states
in America. That is a quintessential area for state and
local authority is a police power. It's not one of
the numery powers of the federal governments. But it's relevant
for the federal government, it's relevant for the incoming political
(19:35):
part of Republicans, because again, you need to get those
animal spirits flowing. You have to get the people start
spending and be confident again and just feeling like they
are a part of this economy, that this rising tide
really actually is lifting all boats there. Only if that happens,
then do Republicans really have any chance of being successful
in the elections next fall. Now, one thing that I
(19:57):
do hear from a lot of folks talking here about
the new concerted efforts, Shusey Wilder saying that Trump's going
to hit the campaign trial, He's going to campaign his
rear end off. When it comes to the economy, I
do hear a lot of folks, including even some rather weak,
shall I say, a voice on the right, saying that
Trump should abandon his immigration agenda, just focus on the economy.
What's this whole immigration thing there? And no, that is wrong.
(20:20):
That also is wildly, wildly, wildly wrong. Immigration is Trump's issue.
Immigration has been Trump's issue. Trump won two presidential elections
and came awfully close to winning a third, and a
deeply contested election a deeply contested year, or more generally,
he won these elections with immigration as his core issue.
(20:41):
You ask one hundred voters out there, how many of
them will say that immigration is Donald Trump's number one issue?
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Ninety five and.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
Maybe five to ten will say the economy just because
it's Trump. He's a billionaire, he's been successful in real estate,
a blah blah blah blah blah. But he's an immigration guy.
So the people know what they knew, what they voted for.
There is nothing surprising whatsoever about what Chrissy Noam and
Tom Homer doing when it comes to the ice raids,
when it comes to working on border wall construction on
(21:10):
the US Mexico border, when it comes to getting illegal
border crossings and encounters with CBP down to near zero,
which he has done has been ninety plus pcent reduction
from the Biden era. There amazing stuff there, and the polls,
by the way, bear this out.
Speaker 2 (21:25):
So I was.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
Reading this recent post from Ryan Gerdusky, who is an
excellent subsacker. I encourage you to go ahead and check
out Ryan Subsack. He subsacts at a place called the
National Populist Newsletter. I was reading just some data about this.
Naturalized immigrants, so ones who can vote legally are split
on how Trump has handled immigration, forty one percent saying
(21:47):
has been too tough, forty percent saying his approach has
been about right or not tough enough. So it's basically
a coin flip about how immigrants themselves feel about Trump's
immigration policy.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
How about Hispanic.
Speaker 1 (21:59):
Americans more generally, well, Trump's overall approval rating among Latinos
actually mirrors that very much of other American voters. His
approval rating is roughly the same among immigrants as it
is with the general public.
Speaker 3 (22:12):
You know.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Again, they're in the low forties, as we discussed earlier
in the show. So there's all sorts of pulling data
to suggest that Hispanic voters, immigrants, really none of them are,
are out of step with the American people more broadly
when it comes to Donald Trump's immigration agenda. So I
see very little, if any reason for Donald Trump we
(22:34):
start to back away from immigration. What I'm saying instead
is to just focus on the economy. You can walk
into gum the same time. You don't have to give
up the economy on immigration. You don't have to give up, frankly,
on anything you don't have to give up on your
righteous crusades against higher education. Try to get these these
these settlements from more offensive I League schools that are
(22:56):
blatantly offending the Civil Rights Act when it comes to
discrimination against white people, Christians, Asians, Jews, etc. There all
that can stay. All that is very good stuff there.
But every single day, every single day, the White House
and Republican leadership in the Congress should begin their day
and say what can I do today to get this
(23:17):
administration's economic messaging and policy in a place where it's
more popular with the American people. That should be the
first question in the morning. When you go to sleep
at night, you should say what did I do that
day to further these goals of making sure the American
people know that this economy is not only objectively good
(23:38):
on a statistical or metrics basis, but it's actually working
for them. That is the most important thing. Because there
was just there was a yet another data point last night.
And I'm not going to freak ot about this, but
it is another interesting data point indicating that there are
potentially some darker things in the future for next year's
midterms if this doesn't turn around. So for instance, here
(23:58):
in South Florida, where I live, a Democrat. A Democrat
just won the city of Miami's mayoral race for the
first time in nearly three decades.
Speaker 2 (24:07):
Now, this isn't.
Speaker 1 (24:08):
Quite as shocking as it as it might be. That's
why I'm hedging here very much. The city of Miami
did break very mildly by a couple points or so
for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the twenty twenty
four presidential election. Moreover, Miami Dade County, which is the
broader county that the smaller city of Miami is Miami
Day County, continues to be a red bastion. It broke
(24:30):
for Disantis by double digit points in twenty twenty two,
continued to vote for Donald Trump in twenty twenty four. Also,
the timing of this runoff election was really, really, really bizarre,
happening here between Thanksgiving and Christmas, very similar to the
special election in Tennessee's seventh Congressional district last week. Very
bizarre timing, very very low turnout election as well. Actually,
(24:51):
the combined turnout of the combined vote total of the
two candidates ends up being under forty thousand people, so low,
low turnout election off year, bad timing. Having said all that,
still a big deal, is it not? I mean, it's
still not a not small deal. I'll put it to
you that way. It's very much not a small deal.
So you have Eileen Higgins, who's a former county commissioner
(25:15):
in Miami Day County, who did become the first Democrat
to win the mayor election in the City of Miami
in nearly three decades. Let's go ahead and then take
a listen briefly to Iileen Higgins, the mayor elect in
the City of Miami, Florida.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
We will lead a city that belongs to everyone, a
city where seniors can stay, young people can build a future,
Immigrants feel welcomed and respected.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
All right, So Higgins won by eight points.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
Now Democrats have a five points voter registration evanage in
city of Miami. Again, I don't think this is a
huge deal, but it's not a small deal. Francis Worreez,
who is the very moderate, very very moderate Republican mayor Miami,
has been in charge for a while.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
Now.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Your mileage may vary as to whether or not you
like his track record, but if nothing else, he was
more broadly speaking on the side of freedom and capitalism.
And I'm kind of using platitotonists buzzwords deliberately because Swarz
didn't really stand for a whole lot other than that.
But at a minimum, he was better than the opposition there.
So will Higgins continue this momentum that has really boosted
(26:23):
South Florida to one of the top economic engines in America.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
It'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Higgins will certainly have some opposition in Tallahassee when it
comes to Governor Santis there. But when you look at that,
when you look at the tighter margin of the Tennessee
special election that recently happens, when you look at ma'am don,
you're getting not just a plurality, but a majority in
New York City. When you look at Jay Jones, who
wants that he wanted to kill his political opponents, winning
(26:51):
the Virginia attorney general election. There there are more than
enough data points now when it comes to the election,
when it comes to the polls to say that this
is now a five alarm fire. This a five alarm fire. No, Look,
the foreign stuff is important. We care certainly a lot
about foreign affairs. We care a lot about trying to
(27:12):
get a piece deal between Russia and Ukraine. I care
a lot about trying to stop the drug cartels and
the traffickers in Central America. We've been strong proponents here
of the prophilactive preemptive strikes on the Narco boats. We've
been strong supporters of Pete Hegseth and all they're doing
there when it comes to strikes on the boats. But
all that stuff just pales in comparison. As important as
(27:32):
I think it is, as important as you may think
it is, It's a comedy first economy always, and unless
and until the e comedy just starts really revving again,
Republicans really could be in something of a world of hurts.
That is our That is our main takeaway message, certainly
for today.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Now.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
The one way that they could potentially not be in
a world of her There's actually very interesting case at
the Supreme Court yesterday. Depending on how this case comes
out out, how a related case comes out, Republicans could
potentially have their chances mitigated or their likelihood of losses
mitigated come Fall twenty twenty six. So the case yesterday
(28:13):
was nrsc's National Republican Centorial Committee versus FEC Federal Election Commission,
involving whether or not the statutory limits on how much
a political party can spend on a political candidate directly
coordinate with that candidate, Whether that statatory limit is constitutional,
whether it is a First Amendment violation somewhat difficult to
tell when it comes to reading the tea leaves of
(28:35):
this argument, Amy Cony Barrett. When the swing justice was silence,
Neil Gorstich was broadly silent as well. This is in
a long line of cases, very much including the controversial
Citizens United case of twenty ten involving campaign finance laws
and their interaction with the First Amendments. One of the
interesting things that Breck Havanaugh, another swing justice, raised at
Yessay's argument in this case NRSC versus FEC. The interesting
(28:59):
thing that Kavanaugh said is that the effect of Sis
United and all these laws have had the effect have
had the effects of restricting the extent to which political
parties can directly spend money and emboldening outside third party actors. Packs,
corporate packs, political packs, things like that. They're not necessarily
the best thing for democracy, say a lot of people there,
(29:21):
so that might be another reason to possibly try to
abolish or to hold this law is not constitutional. Now,
what I was saying though, is that depending on how
this goes out, there are some Republicans, some consultants and
so forth. There folks like Chris la Savita, who was
a longtime Trump intercircle hands Tony Fabrizio who was a
longtime Trump polster. They did apparently just over this past weekend,
(29:43):
there was some RNC donor retreat and they said this
past weekend that the ruling on this case as well
as the forthcoming ruling when it comes to congressional redition.
So Republicans already got a win in the text redistioning case,
is going to be some other redistioning cases as well
evolving the Voting Rights Act, very very very high profile
voting rights litigation. So depending on how that case comes out,
(30:06):
depending on how this case comes out, say Chris los
Avita and Tony Fabrizio, that could actually help Republicans at
the ballot in twenty twenty six. But the point that
I will make is this, you don't want to rely
on the court, guys. You don't want to rely on
the court to do the right thing. The number of
times that politicians have relied on the court to do
the right thing and then have been utterly disappointed. It's
too high to count, you know, the terroriffs. By the way,
(30:28):
there is currently a massive tariff case. The entire legal
argument behind Donald Trump's tariffs, namely this Jimmy Carter era
late nineteen seventies emergency statue. The entire legitimacy of invoking
that statute for these tariffs is currently pending before the
court too. You don't really want to do that. You
want to have backup plans in place there. You don't
want to rely on the court there. So I would
(30:49):
encourage the Republicans, don't rely on the court doing the
right thing. Get out there and actually do the right thing.
That is a much, much, much safer task overall. Now,
I want to talk a little here in the final
minutes of the show about something quite a bit different
about me. Means to do this for the past couple
of days, I just haven't necessarily had the time. We'll
(31:10):
see if I how emotional I got here. I don't necessarily.
I think I've only cried once on this show. It
was after Charlie Kirk was assassinated, And we will see.
I suppose if that happens again today, I'm not entirely sure.
My daughter turns on one year old this Saturday. She
was born on December thirteenth of last year, and we
(31:32):
did her We had our birthday party this past Sunday
here in South Florida where we live, and we called
it her first rodeo, you know, like her first rodeo,
just kind of a it's you know, it's very common phrase, right,
it's not my first rodeo, Okay, So this was her
first rodeo. And we worked with the vendors. We had
the decorations, the drink state, We had a drink station
(31:54):
was called her watering hole. We had like a little barn.
We got ponies and farm animals. We had like like
a ball pit in balloons for the kids. It was
a really really, really beautiful event. And my wife deserves
all the credit in the world. I cut the check.
She did all the work. Amazing stuff, I mean, working
with the vendor that that we worked with there. And
(32:15):
when you walked in this party, my wife had this
had had this montage where we took our daughter and
there was a photo of every month of her life
from one month until til say until she's one year old,
and every time I looked at that, I just started
I just started crying. I mean, I just could not
hold back the emotions. Not only because she's beautiful, which
(32:38):
she is, not only because she's amazing, which she is.
She's actually in like I think it's the ninety eighth
percentile for weight and the ninety fift percentile for height,
So she's a big girl. She's physically flourishing, and she's
flourishing in every other way that a baby can be
flourishing as well.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
So it's that's amazing. But can't believe it.
Speaker 1 (33:01):
I just cannot believe how fast this has gone. And
I realized that this is like the most cliche thing ever, right,
I mean, I mean, first time father, can't believe how
quickly you Okay, but here I am. And it just
feels like it went away in the blink of an eye.
It feels like just yesterday. I was in the shower
actually when my wife yelled my water broke. It was
(33:22):
last December. I was like, oh my god, what do
we do? What do we do? I haven't packed a
bag for the hospital.
Speaker 2 (33:27):
What do we do?
Speaker 1 (33:30):
She was actually much much calmer than eye that situation.
So we packed the bag, went to the hospital, and
you know, praise be to God, our baby was born
healthy and beautiful the next afternoon, less than twenty four
hours later. But it just feels like it went by
so fast, and at the risk of staying the obvious,
I guess my message would be this, think of life
(33:52):
as follows. Try to think of life as someone once
told me. You have a jar, and you try to
fill the jar with certain marbles, and the marbles can
be multicolored. We can have green marbles, blue marbles, red marbles,
whatever you want to First fill the cup with the
(34:13):
most important type of marbles, and that's how you should
try to live every single day of your life. I
am not pard of this. I fail.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
We all fail. We're humans, we're made in God's image.
We are not God.
Speaker 1 (34:28):
But you try to fill your cup every day of
your life to the extent possible with the most important
things in your life. In my life, the most important
things are pretty clear. It's God first, it's family second,
(34:49):
and then it's everything else. It's my job, my country,
all the things that I care about. And then we
talk about every day on this show, and my recent
dated routine has been more or less trying to do
that in order. So I recently changed my day day routine.
I wake up very early nowadays. I wake up around
five am, give or take. I am in synagogue by
(35:13):
six am, give or take, ready for the for morning prayers.
I get home by around seven point thirty give or take.
I have some quality time with my wife and our
baby in the morning there helping, helping feed, and to
play and to just try to entertain all of that
really before I kind of sit down and begin to
(35:35):
do my actual job for the day. Now easier seven
than done. Everyone's life is different, everyone's schedule is different.
There it's not easy. It's really hard actually to try
to balance all the amount of things that human beings
have to balance over the course of your day. It's
really difficult as well to balance everything over the course
(35:55):
of a week or a lifetime. Charlie Kirk has a
brand new book out posthumously. His wife Erica has been
doing the media rounds promoting it. The book is called
Stop in the Name of God. It's a book about
the Sabbath. Charlie was an evangelical Christian, but was very,
(36:19):
very very inspired by the Hebrew Bible by the Torah.
He studied the Torah with Dennis Praeger. Many of his mentors,
intellectual mentors and closest friends kept the Sabbath or some
version of it, and Charlie would really turn his phone
off when Orthodox Jews like myself do from Friday night
to Saturday night. It's an amazing built in gift from
(36:42):
God trying to give you the freedom, the ability to
fill your cup up with the most important marbles, to
focus on God, on the creator of all things, to
focus on your family with no distractions, with a clear head.
But only by living. I think with that kind of deliberation,
(37:07):
with that kind of conscientious prioritization of that which you
are doing each and every day, I've come to think
that that really is the best way to live your life.
When I was a little younger, I was a little
I was a little more scattershot. I didn't have a family,
I wasn't particularly observant or religious at that time. I
(37:27):
wouldn't send alarm. Maybe I would if I had, like
the office or the work whatever, But I would sleep
in a little bit and I would kind of just
play the day as it goes, play it by ear
day in and day out. But you should have more structure,
and that structure should reflect what your life priorities. That
structure should reflect the most important marbles that they are
(37:48):
going to be filled. First, and as a first time father,
now on the cusp of celebrating our daughter's first birthday
this Saturday, after we just had this wonderful rodeo Western
theme party for her this past Sunday, I truly feel
has never been more important. I truly feel that it's
(38:11):
never more important for me to cling to this, to
cherish every moment, what ultimately is going to be more important?
What am I going to remember a year or two
from now that memory of being goofy with her in
the living room at eight eight thirty am, or scrolling
(38:32):
Twitter or reading some article on the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
Whatever.
Speaker 1 (38:39):
You have to do your job, you have to do
it well. Again, these things are easier said than done.
And I don't judge anyone who struggles with these trade offs.
Speaker 2 (38:46):
I do too. We all do.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
Again, We're human. But try the best you can to
fill that cup each and every day with the most
important marbles. Can promise you. But if you do that,
and you make a conscientious effort to do exactly that.
Then you're going to be happier, and you will feel
(39:08):
more fulfilled, and you will feel more confident in all
that you do on a data basis moving forward. So look,
I mean, I wish my daughter a very happy first birthday.
To put the mildly, it's been an amazing, amazing year
and I can't wait to see where she goes from here.
I hope that advice resonates with you, and we thank
you was always for listener watching to The Josh Hammer Show.
(39:30):
Make sure to like and subscribe if you have not
already done, so leave with that five star review. We
alway appreciate your feedback. We're on YouTube over on Newsweek's
a YouTube page also available the Salem News Channel. But
for now I'm Josh Hammer. I hope you enjoyed today's
episode of The Josh Hammershow.
Speaker 2 (39:48):
The Josh Hammer Show is a member of the Trust Project.
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