Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche Show where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead.
Howell explains we're entering an "air pocket" in global liquidity despite the overall upward trend that began in October 2022. He examines the "hidden stimulus" from Yellen and Powell that's now fading, details why the US Treasury's bill-heavy financing strategy exposes government funding to interest rate risk, and discusses a theory about Trump potentially revaluing US gold reserves to generate a $1.25 trillion windfall. For investors facing 2025's "much more uncertain year," Howell advises caution and suggests that real assets—particularly gold—may outperfor
Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Links:
Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap
Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902
00:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell
01:25 - Current state of the global liquidity cycle and the emerging "air pocket"
03:50 - The hidden stimulus from Fed and Treasury that's now fading
06:16 - How bill-focused Treasury financing is effectively "monetizing the deficit"
11:04 - China's central bank actions and their global economic impact
15:54 - Signs of a potential Chinese policy shift toward economic growth
18:35 - Parallels between Trump and Nixon's economic approaches
21:37 - Asset allocation recommendations based on market regimes
26:58 - Analysis of where we are in the liquidity cycle and future projections
31:49 - Why China needs to devalue against gold and implications for US policy
37:49 - The growing global debt burden and limited options for resolution
43:43 - Why the Fed must expand its balance sheet by mid-2025
48:48 - Tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than an end goal
50:39 - Final advice: investors should consider adding resources/gold to portfolios as protection during uncertain times
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