Mel Mattison, a fintech executive with 25+ years in financial services, argues the U.S. is entering fiscal dominance where massive deficits will fuel asset bubbles rather than economic collapse. He correctly predicted the S&P's drop to 5,000 in early 2025 and expects it to reach 7,000 by year-end, driven by Trump administration policies that prioritize growth over spending cuts. Mattison believes the 10-year Treasury rate is irrelevant since 85% of government debt is issued in short-term bills tied to Fed funds, allowing borrowing costs to fall even as deficits rise. With 2025 targets of Bitcoin at $150K and gold at $3,500, plus S&P at 12,000 within years, he sees this as the beginning of the biggest asset bubble since the 1990s dot-com era.
Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
X: https://x.com/MelMattison1
The 10 Year Ain’t What It Used to Be: https://x.com/MelMattison1/status/1922710289486627300
Website: https://www.melmattison.com/
Book: https://www.amazon.com/Quoz-Financial-Thriller-Mel-Mattison/dp/B0CV89VLMY
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro of Mel Mattison0:58 Background and macro framework3:15 Fiscal dominance and deficit spending reality5:37 Salsa and sour cream market theory9:11 Why markets will hit 7,000 by year end10:52 Calling the market bottom at 5,11512:22 Why rate fears are overblown16:10 Monthly treasury statement insights17:05 Budget surpluses signal collapse, deficits signal bubbles18:06 Riding the asset bubble strategy20:41 Government borrowing costs going down despite rising debt23:27 Policy makers have more rabbits to pull out24:04 USD printing machine philosophy26:57 S&P 12,000 target within few years28:32 Biggest asset bubble of our lifetime30:40 Bitcoin $150K and gold $3,500 predictions35:30 Federal Reserve rate cut forecasts38:52 Unlocking home equity through HELOCs42:06 Massive stimulus through front-end manipulation42:21 Trump's oil and energy strategy46:38 Fed funds as baby boomer stimulus53:13 Parting thoughts and where to follow
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