Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
In this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673
Timestamps:
00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen
02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates
04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion
05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics
06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence
08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate
09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation
10:42 - Recession probability
13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together
14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper
16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers
18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion
19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate
21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street
22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending
24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand
25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation
27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion
30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work
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