Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's public attacks on the Fed chair, warning of an "Armageddon scenario" if Trump continues his pressure campaign. DiMartino Booth presents data showing the US entered recession in Q2 2024, with job losses, rising underemployment, and deflation in key sectors like hotels and airlines. She argues Powell could secure his legacy by admitting he's wrong about the job market being "solid" when data shows jobs are increasingly hard to get.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Welcome and introduction - FOMC day reaction
1:05 Historic double dissent - first since 1993
3:04 History of Fed dissents - why they disappeared after 1996
6:48 Powell's dismissive handling of dissenters
8:26 Why dissents should be healthy for Fed decision-making
9:23 Trump's embarrassing public beratement of Powell
10:52 The Armageddon scenario - what happens if Trump pushes too hard
13:13 Will Powell stay? Hell would freeze over before he leaves
15:00 Powell's path to securing his Fed legacy
16:40 Jobs hard to get rises to highest of cycle - 18.9%
17:26 US economy entered recession in Q2 2024
19:13 Deflation signals - hotel revenues and airline travel down
20:25 Core PCE market-based pricing is negative 0.3%
21:23 Gig economy collapse - Uber drivers earning 60% less
22:41 Biggest risk - Fed's tone deafness to job market reality
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