April 15, 2025 • 33 mins
In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor podcast, host David Fleming pulls back the curtain on the strange dynamics shaping Toronto’s spring real estate market in 2025. From fatigued buyers to hopeful-but-unrealistic sellers—and agents caught somewhere in between—David explores the widening gap between perception and reality in today’s market.
With his signature candor and grounded perspective, David cuts through the noise surrounding Trump headlines, tariff shocks, and media-driven panic to uncover the real story: stagnating showings, fantasy pricing, and a subtle—but unmistakable—shift beneath the surface.
This isn’t a crash, but it isn’t business as usual either.
In This Episode:
- Why fewer listings are getting offers—and what it really means
- How seller expectations are stuck in the 2022 peak
- The “don’t bother” attitude that’s killing deals before they start
- Why some agents are pretending nothing’s changed—and how that hurts everyone
- What buyers, sellers, and smart agents should actually be doing right now
Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:00 – The Media Noise vs. Agent Whispers
05:00 – What’s Really Happening with Offer Nights
09:30 – The Return of Fantasy Pricing
14:00 – Why Agents Saying “Don’t Bother” Is a Red Flag
20:00 – Showings Are Down—And That Matters
25:00 – Buyer Fatigue Isn’t What It Used to Be
30:00 – Are We Seeing the Start of a Pattern?
36:00 – David’s Advice for Sellers, Buyers, and Agents Alike
Don’t Miss:
- David’s breakdown of why fantasy pricing is quietly killing the spring market
- The subtle signs that the ground is shifting beneath the surface
- A clear-eyed look at what to do when the market isn’t loud—it’s whispering
Subscribe to The Last Honest Realtor on YouTube or your preferred podcast platform. Like, comment, and share your take on what you’re seeing in today’s market.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Hello everybody and welcome back to the Last Honest
Realtor podcast.
I'm your host, David Fleming.
Thank you so much for joining metoday as we try to cut through
all of the noise out there, andthere is a lot of it, and
discuss the very basics of theToronto real estate market.
Now, nothing basic about it.
I would say that we are throughthe first quarter and we'd love
to discuss some of the amazingstatistics.
(00:21):
I covered this in my blogearlier in the week, but it goes
without saying that betweenDonald Trump and tariffs and the
Dow Jones, the trifecta of newsis Everybody out there is
worried.
And it's not just buyers.
It's not just sellers.
It's not people that are in andout of the market, mortgage
brokers, home inspectors.
Everybody across the board isasking what the heck is
(00:41):
happening in the market.
So for me right now, if I'm abuyer or I'm a seller, I'm a
real estate participant, I'msaying, who am I supposed to
listen to?
Now, I'm not going to say, well,you've got to listen to my
podcast.
But what I am going to say isthat there's so much noise and
irrespective of what DonaldTrump did and what's happening
with the Dow Jones and arepeople still gonna be able to
(01:03):
buy?
Have they lost all theirsavings?
All of the stuff that's reallysensationalizing the media.
What's being missed in this isthat even before this happened,
They were kind of whispers of ashift in the marketplace.
So I've always maintained thatthe media is usually a little
bit behind the story.
If you really want to knowwhat's happening, you've got to
talk to the agents.
And the agents are talking tothemselves.
(01:25):
I mean one another, that is, nottalking to themselves, although
I do that from time to time.
And I find that in the averageweek, I'll probably talk to at
least a dozen agents just to saywhat's happening out there.
What are you seeing?
I literally walked into thekitchen here at Bosley to make
lunch and I saw another agentand I stopped and I said, what
are you seeing?
What's happening in your market?
That's where you're going tofind out what's really going on
(01:46):
in the real estate market, notnecessarily through the news.
So the first point I want tomake it today is that while the
media is kind of giving acautiously optimistic tone, the
agents themselves We, and I meanthe ones that are selling real
estate, not all 72,000, we arelooking at what's happening and
where we think it's going.
(02:07):
This is the time every yearwhere we start to see a little
bit in a shift in the market tosay that maybe April, May,
things usually start to cooloff.
The question is, is this goingto happen a little bit sooner?
So listings are stagnating.
We see buyer energy dipping.
Deals, they're a little bitharder to come by.
And what I want to do today iskind of shine a light on these
whispers and ask the criticalquestions, should we be worried?
(02:31):
I don't mean about the DowJones.
I don't mean about Donald Trump.
I don't mean about tariffs.
I'm talking about the market ingeneral.
And I'm not leading in sayingthat you should or shouldn't.
I'm saying what are thequestions that you should be
asking of yourself, your realestate agent.
And I wanna start with overallsales data.
So if you're a stats nerd likeme, go and take a look at
Toronto Realty blog where Ibroke down the March statistics.
(02:52):
We're coming off of a Marchwhere we saw 5,011 sales.
That is the lowest sales ever,by ever I mean since 2000 when I
started tracking the data.
And it's not even close to theprevious lowest, which was 2009.
That was 6,171 sales.
So we're like 18% behind thesecond fewest.
That was what March was.
The absorption rate in the condomarket is back down to barely
(03:15):
over a quarter.
That means one out of every fourlistings is producing a sale
that is incredibly bleak.
And that is in the 416 and the905.
When I say listings, I mean,look, we could list the same
property five times.
But that is the ratio of salesto listings.
And...
I would say that there are somany anecdotes out there and you
could walk into any brokerageand listen to any agent talk or
(03:37):
any team meeting or any rah-rahconvention about how to sell
real estate.
And what I wanna know is whatdoes the data say?
What's happening on the offernights?
What's happening in thenegotiating tables?
There's just so much nonsense tocut through.
So look, there's nothing likethe tension of a market that
won't say what it's thinking,but the agents are talking and I
(04:00):
spoke to an agent the other daythat called me on one of my
listings.
He said to me, I'd bring you anoffer, but I think it's a waste
of time.
Unique perspective.
I mean, is it for a dollar?
I said, what do you mean bythat?
And he said, follow this.
This is absolutely amazing.
He said, I've spoken to so manylisting agents lately and I tell
(04:22):
them what I want to bring andthey say, don't bother.
Now, I recognize by telling youwhat I'm about to tell you, you
could say, oh, David, you'rejust trying to clear out
inventory, sell it for thelowest possible price.
Hang on a second.
Hold that thought.
In order to do a deal, you needto get an offer.
So right off the bat, if youtell somebody don't bother, and
yeah, there are times.
(04:42):
There are times when you mightnegotiate like that.
But if you're telling someonedon't bother, you're shooting
yourself in the foot.
So let me give you an example.
I bring out a listing at$4million.
And in the first 48 hours,someone says, I'm thinking I
might bring 3.8.
Don't bother.
Don't bother.
We're not taking a penny underlist.
That is negotiating.
That is leverage.
(05:02):
That is a very differentscenario than the condo I've got
on the market for 85 days.
And someone says, they're goingto bring me an offer.
I'm going to say, don't bother.
These are the conversations thatagents are having.
And this agent that called meand said, too many people are
telling me don't bother.
It completely echoes what wewere talking about at our Bosley
meeting three days prior.
(05:23):
Why would you ever say don'tbother?
So good agents understand how towork in a changing market.
Agents are talking, but onlysome of them know what's
happening.
And when I got this offer, andyes, it was low, it represented
a starting point.
We spent five days negotiatingthis.
It was about price.
It was about closing.
It was about condition.
It was stupid things they wantedus to repair.
(05:44):
hair in the unit because it's afirst-time buyer.
They can't do anything.
Kind of dating myself there, butI'm going to expect it's a young
20-something.
Long story short, had I beenlike every other agent and said,
don't bother bringing me theoffer, I wouldn't have a sale,
my client wouldn't be moving on,and all those other agents out
there are doing what?
Sitting with their sellerclients.
(06:05):
So the whispers that we'retalking about.
One of the whispers is thatagents are kind of talking about
fewer showings.
Now it's not something thatwe're going to advertise.
This is why I'm referring to itas a whisper.
In a busy market, and I alwaysprep my clients by having a
phone call the night before thelisting, and I would say that in
a busy market or just a slightlyabove average market, your
(06:26):
second day of the listing, It'swhen you get the most showings.
I tell my clients for afreehold, you're at 9.99, we
have an offer date, we want 1.2.
I'd love to see four to fiveshowings booked the first day,
six to eight showings booked thesecond day, another four to five
the next day, and so on.
I'll set a target.
I'd love to see 40 showings.
What I'm seeing right now isthat showings, are starting to
(06:48):
go down.
And these are the whispers amongthe agent pool out there that
are saying, I'm just not gettingas many showings.
So a great example is a propertythat I sold with a bully offer.
I had 14 showings booked, notthrough, but 14 booked in the
first three days.
The target that I had set wasabout 20.
This was below average.
Now I also look for how manypeople are gonna ask for a copy
(07:11):
of the home inspection.
That's a very good indication ofinterest.
I had two.
I was hoping to have six orseven.
So by the time we got this bullyoffer, it was an absolute
no-brainer.
We took it and we ran.
Now, I don't wanna say it waslucky, I would say that it was
good fortune, but at the end ofthe day, and this is gonna play
into some of the other thingsthat we're talking about, my
(07:31):
clients were realistic, I wasdefinitely realistic, and we
were in tune with the currentmarket because it changes so
quickly, and when it's changing,you have to absolutely change
with it.
So another whisper out there isthat I don't wanna use the term
bidding war because define abidding war, what is that
really?
But the 999 listing that gets 14offers and sells for a million
(07:53):
350 where the four top highestwere sent back a couple of
times, that is happening moreinfrequently.
So a colleague of mine, she hada listing in the West End, she
did have 12 offers, she told methat she worked with the top
four and that all four improvedand then once they were done,
the person that was maybe numberthree bid against himself, she
didn't even ask them to, theycame up.
I'm not saying it doesn'thappen, but I'm saying that
(08:15):
having looked at what's sellingin competition, having monitored
the number of offers, we arenoticing that the bidding wars,
so to speak, I wouldn't say thebidding wars are happening.
I'd say even the over asking,it's only in select situations.
So I feel already this is comingoff as negative, pessimistic,
bearish.
(08:35):
It's not all that, guys.
What it is, is about being intune with the market.
you have a C minus house, youlist low with an offer date,
what are you expecting tohappen?
The A plus house list low withan offer date, absolutely gonna
sell, gonna be a slobberknocker.
But we're not in 2022 where youcan take a dog listing,
underprice it and expectmultiple offers.
(08:58):
So listings that might have soldlast year within a certain
timeframe aren't selling now.
What I'm seeing is that 30 days,that used to be like, oh, 30
days, we should talk aboutreducing the price.
I'd say it's less now.
It really is.
And not to say that, and bearwith me here, you should
probably think, well, let'sreduce the price in 60 days now
(09:18):
instead of 30.
It's not that.
It's that within 15 days, we'vehad zero to one showings.
Okay, yeah, we've gotta dosomething.
So 60 is the new 30 in terms ofdays on market.
I would say I've had a fewproperties, and this goes back
to last fall, that took 60 days,specifically the condos.
60 is the new 30, and overall,the days on market has certainly
increased.
(09:39):
So...
The next point I want to make,guys, is that it's not panic.
I would describe it asdiscomfort.
I'm tired of hearing thesehyperboles in the market.
And as a tangent, I went on CTVNews last week and we were
talking about this story wherethe Bank of Montreal said
they're going to have to tinkerwith some of the lending
criteria now that there'stariffs and people could be in
(10:01):
affected industries.
The word they used was deny.
The banks are going to denymortgages to people.
No, no, no, no.
They're tinkering.
Okay, that sounds silly,tinkering.
They're not denying mortgages.
They're strengthening theirregulations.
So what I would say here, again,is a word like panic.
I don't like that word.
What I would say is discomfort.
It is discomfort because thesellers are not accustomed to
(10:22):
what they expected, what theywere accustomed to prior, and
the listing agents mostcertainly are not ready for the
change in the market.
So discomfort sometimes has away into turning into something
bigger when no one addresses it.
As I said, a lot of the agentsare out there addressing it
right now.
So concerns beneath the noise.
We talk about buyer fatigue alot.
(10:43):
Usually when we get to say a Mayor a June in a really busy
market where you've got buyersthat have lost five, six, seven
times, that's when the buyerfatigue sets in.
I don't think that we have thatbuyer fatigue in the same way.
What I would say is that thebuyer fatigue now is is the news
cycle.
It started this year withTrump's taking office on the
(11:03):
20th.
We all got to wait and see.
And then it was the tariffs onFebruary 3rd, 30-day extension,
March 3rd.
Then it was April 2nd,Liberation Day.
The buyers are fatigued, not inthe same way that they have been
in years prior, by losing overand over and then getting to
June and saying, I need a break.
The buyers are fatigued by thenonstop news cycle.
(11:24):
So a little bit of the fear maybe starting to set in.
And it's not so much fear ofprices dropping as much as I
would say it's fear of theunknown.
I would also say that, and I'vealways mused, buyers would
rather pay more if they'rebuying on the way up than buy at
the trough and see it go down alittle bit more.
And I'm going to come back tothat.
So, you know, another concernbeneath the noise, sellers
(11:47):
hanging on to fantasy pricing.
They're banking on this springresurgence that might not come I
get so many calls in Jan and Febfrom people saying, I want to
sell in June.
And I say, why June?
Well, that's when the market'sbetter, based on what?
You have been in the same housefor 35 years.
You haven't really transacted.
So selling in June, my argumenthas always been most people have
(12:08):
bought by then.
Another concern beneath thenoise, so to speak, we just
talked about buyers and thefatigue.
Now let's talk about sellers andthe fantasy pricing, because
many of these sellers arebanking on a fantasy price.
Many of them are banking on aspring resurgence that might not
come.
And then many of them,unfortunately, are banking on
both of those things, a fantasyprice.
And of course, it's going tohappen in the spring or the
(12:30):
early summer.
So not exclusive to 2025.
I would say that every year Iget phone calls in January and
February from folks that say,I'm going to sell in June.
And I assume there's a reasonfor it, like that's when they're
retiring or maybe that's whenthey've bought a property out
west and they're moving.
No, the answer is usually, well,that's the best market.
To which I say, based on what?
(12:51):
they don't usually have ananswer.
And I can tell them based onstatistics and based on
empirical evidence, I see everyyear by that point, most buyers
have bought.
And I mentioned that in theprevious point with the idea of
buyer fatigue.
I think that this year, justlike every other year, we will
see a rounding off in the marketin May and June.
I think that for the sellersthat every single year hold out
(13:11):
for that market, this year isgonna be a little bit tougher.
So an anecdote, if you will, notreally an anecdote, a true
story, I guess is a better wayof putting it, but an anecdote,
anecdotal evidence that reallydrives this point home has to do
with somebody that called melast week, hadn't heard from in
years, remembered the name,remembered the property, and
this person said, you appraisedmy home at 1.5 million, I'm
(13:34):
ready to sell.
Now, to my absolute horror, Iwent into my computer and I
looked at the date on theappraisal, opinion of value, if
you will, and it was February of2022.
That's great.
February of 2022.
For those not in the know, thatis the absolute peak of our
market.
That was the highest averagehome price and we have fallen
(13:55):
off since there.
So I said, yes, I appraise itfor 1.5 million.
What do you think it's worthtoday?
And they said, well, you know,we would take 1.5.
No, sorry, sorry.
I appraised your home at theabsolute peak of the market like
15, 20% ago.
What do you think it's worthnow?
And this conversation went onabout 1.5, 1.5 and a quarter,
(14:15):
1.49.
And I'm finding myself shoutinginto the phone, your house is
worth 1.3 million.
Now, Chris went over and metwith the sellers.
Chris did a full walkthrough.
He reported back and he said,yeah, they've got some serious
work to do.
But the seller got it ahead ofit.
The seller, nice gentleman,said, totally upfront and
honest, called me and said,listen, I've given it a lot of
(14:38):
thought.
My wife and I are not preparedto list this for less than$1.6
million.
I get it, I'm in sales, I'm ajerk.
I only wanna sell propertiesthat are realistically gonna
sell.
No, it's not like that.
I cannot wave a magic wand.
I have to work in the marketthat we're in.
I told them, yes, had you soldin February of 2022 at the
(14:59):
absolute peak, you would havegot 1.5 million.
That could be a one, two houseright now for all I know.
And I don't know because nothingis selling in that area.
And for them to say 1.6 million,it just goes to show you the
element of fantasy pricing.
So another anecdote, if youwill, a colleague of mine made
an offer on a home.
There were eight offers.
(15:19):
The listing agent tried everytrick in the book.
couldn't get up to a price thatthe seller would accept.
They turned down eight offersand relisted the home.
Now this is very common.
We've talked about this on thispodcast, on Toronto Realty Blog
all the time.
But the market that we're inright now, for a seller to
receive eight offers and turnthem all down, it just speaks to
(15:41):
that element of fantasy.
So the third concern beneath thenoise, if you will, I mentioned
buyers, I mentioned sellers.
The third part of this would beagents.
Agents are split between thosethat are pretending everything's
totally normal and those thatare prepared for the turbulence.
And that's not a bad thing.
Turbulence.
Every market has turbulence.
(16:01):
The stock market, oh, that wasall Donald Trump and all that.
I get it.
But it doesn't matter whetheryou're selling widgets or
whether you're selling shoes,whether you're selling real
estate.
Every market has ups and downs,peaks and valleys.
It's never turbulence.
a strictly balanced market for35 years straight.
Real estate is no different.
And right now what we're seeingis that the problem, both being
(16:22):
sellers and agents, is that thesellers have fantasy pricing and
the agents won't set themstraight.
So it stems from the sellers,don't get me wrong.
I mentioned the fantasy pricing.
But in my case, I had told thosefolks, your house is worth one
three.
They said, we won't list it forless than one six.
And to finish that thought,because I kind of worried that I
came off as a jerk there, I saidto them, guys, I'd absolutely
(16:43):
love to do this for you.
I think I'm better than anyagent out there in terms of
getting you the highest possibleprice.
but you guys are really, reallyfar off.
And they did not understand orthey didn't want to understand
and didn't hear back from them.
So had they said this listing isyours, David at 1.6, thank you
so much, I'm gonna pass.
It's yours at 1.5, thank you somuch, I'm gonna pass.
(17:03):
I can't wave a magic wand.
They're so far out of whack withthe pricing.
But at the same time, there arethousands of agents that will
list that property.
That is what I'm talking aboutwhen I talk about a split
between those pretending it'sfine and those preparing for
turbulence.
That concern beneath the noise,the buyers, the sellers, and the
agent.
So on the surface, our market'sonly down two to two and a half
(17:26):
percent.
I'm talking year over year.
In February, it was 2.2%.
In March, it was 2.5.
But behind the scenes, the salesare lower than last year and the
offer dates are starting tofalter.
So put this all together and youcan start to see on the surface
everything's fine andeverything's normal and
everything's well and good butthen we get rocked by Trump,
tariffs, trade war, Dow Jonesand you're starting to see the
(17:49):
fissures.
Now another thing I want to talkabout in the context of this
market is pattern recognition.
So here's a fun analogy.
Think about a movie with the FBIor the police where they have
one of those big bulletinboards.
And they've got all thesepictures and those strings that
connect the suspects to theevidence and what have you.
If you're wondering where thisis going, trust me.
(18:10):
In 2017, that was the first timeI had ever seen like a major
shift in the market.
And I recall the run-up January,February, March, and into early
April where things wereabsolutely ripping.
And we started to see propertiesnot selling or being relisted.
So I would print them and Iwould kind of keep them over
here on my desk.
And then I ran out of room and Iwould put them over here on And
(18:32):
you know where this is going.
Eventually, Chris and I wentinto the boardroom at the old
Bosley building on MertonStreet.
We started taping them to thewall.
And eventually, like they do inthese police dramas, we started
kind of connecting them witharrows and stuff.
We were trying to make sense ofthe pattern.
And it was essentially that themarket was dying.
(18:52):
That's what we concluded.
But when it's happening soslowly, you don't recognize the
pattern when you're in it.
You only recognize it after thefact.
So picture a market where Jan,Feb, March, everything's getting
offers, everything's selling.
And then you see this propertydidn't sell.
Oh, this property didn't sell.
And this property didn't sell.
And you start to say, what ishappening here?
So we're putting all the relistsup.
(19:14):
We're taking all the ones thatdidn't sell.
We're still keeping track ofwhat did sell.
And we're looking for thosepatterns.
Now, that was 2017.
That was, I can't believe it,eight years ago.
We saw a similar thing happen in2022.
But in 2022, it was basicallythe government saying, hey,
we're going to make ratesskyrocket.
The party's over.
They essentially announced it in2017.
(19:35):
Yes, the federal government wassaying housing's too expensive,
and between the municipality andthe province and the federal
government, we're going to takesteps to try to make housing
more affordable.
Sure, they signaled that wemight see a downturn in the
market, but they didn'tartificially, or rather that was
artificial, they didn'tintentionally take steps to
reduce prices like thegovernment did in 2022 when they
(19:57):
increased interest rates.
Now, They didn't set out toreduce home prices, but they set
out to remove affordability,which would in turn reduce
prices.
So that was 2017.
That was the first time that Ireally ever sat down to identify
the pattern.
And I've been aware of that eversince.
And what I'm trying to say isthat when we're in a market like
this, where we feel like there'swhispers, we feel like there's a
(20:18):
shift, you being either thebuyer, the seller, or hopefully
the agent, need to really lookand try to get out ahead of the
market and get it ahead of whereit's going.
It's not unlike Wayne Gretzkysaying, I pass to where I know
the player is going to be.
You need to look at where themarket is going to be and that's
through pattern recognition.
So I mentioned that over thelast few years we've seen these
(20:40):
gangbuster first few months andit levels off where usually most
people have bought or usually ina red hot market people are so
tired of losing that they puttheir searches on hold.
Post May 2-4 weekend for methat's kind of the measure I've
seen over the last few years.
Don't quote me on it becausethis year is an awkward year but
pay attention to the patterns.
Pay attention to the number ofrelists, which is something I'm
(21:01):
going to talk on, and then lookfor the red flags.
So the changing buyer behavior,the stale inventory, the rising
days on market, I look at failedoffer dates.
So last night, there was a hostof properties that had offer
dates, and I simply went intoBroker Bay at 9.30 at night, and
I checked every single one.
You click register offer, yougo, it tells you how many offers
(21:22):
are registered.
A ton of properties with zerooffers.
Now we're going to see what?
relists.
So you get the person thatwanted 1.3 million.
They listed at 999.
I've told you showings are down.
Requests for home inspectionsare down.
Bully offers are down.
What do they do when they end upwith zero offers?
Do they relist at 1299?
Do they relist higher?
(21:42):
The seller wants 1.3.
I need to build in thenegotiating cushion.
I'll put it up at 1349.
What are those folks doing?
Are they leaving it for twoweeks with the note that the
offer date is somewhere in thepast?
Those are the patterns thatwe're trying to recognize.
So I think as far As far asabsorption rate goes, another
very important statistics, onethat I love talking about on my
blog, I'm writing a blog rightnow which will be up in a couple
(22:04):
of days, about the condo marketand that declining absorption
rate.
Now that absorption rate hasalways been way lower than the
overall market, but what I sawin the month of March, with the
overall absorption rate was 29%,And the condo market absorption
rate was 26%.
I would expect that the condomarket absorption rate is always
10 to 15% lower than the overallmarket.
(22:25):
But a 29% absorption rate, forthose not fully aware, that
means the ratio of sales to newlistings is 29%.
Anything below 50% is at leastin theory a buyer's market.
You can argue that at 45 or 40%,well, you know, it depends on
where you are.
29%, there's no argument thatthat's anything like a seller's
(22:45):
market.
So my take on this section,guys, we've seen false alarms
many times before, but some ofthe ingredients this time feel a
little too familiar.
And the false alarms,notwithstanding, the real alarm
here, and I hate to keephammering on this, is Trump,
tariffs, and the Dow Jones.
I've never seen anything likeit.
(23:06):
And I think I lived through it.
2001, the tech meltdown.
I remember I was in universityand I'd walk in the business
center and you'd see the tickerand it's this stock's down 30%.
But it was different.
And I could tell you storiesabout this.
I tried telling people thataren't of the same vintage.
The internet was new.
Somebody could be likestamps.com.
(23:27):
I bookmarked the URL.
Now I'm fundraising.
What are you gonna do with that?
I'm gonna sell stamps on theinternet.
Chairs.com, yeah, we sellchairs.
Great, here's$200 million ofseed capital.
No wonder that market tanked.
I lived through that.
It was crazy.
2008.
Financial crisis, a meltdown,which now behind the scenes, we
obviously know, was a long timecoming with mortgage-backed
(23:47):
securities.
We can talk about the 2017 realestate peak in Toronto.
Well, that was just a longrun-up.
2022, well, that was based onCOVID.
Everyone moving, everyone buyingat low interest rates.
Now, here we are in 2025.
Trump, tariffs, Dow Jones.
Never seen anything like it.
So should you panic?
No.
but there are a few things thatyou need to know.
(24:08):
For buyers, you have negotiatingpower, but do not assume that
that means everything's a deal.
I always look at the propertywhere, again, I keep using the
same numbers over and over, butit's a$1.2 million house and
it's listed at 999 with an offerdate and the cocky buyer walks
in and he's like, well, I hadall my money in cash when the
Dow Jones went down 15% and nowI'm gonna offer 900,000 on this
(24:30):
house because the world's onfire.
Listen, dude, yeah, good foryou, but it's still Toronto,
still the real estate market,it's 2025, it's a million two
house, they don't have to sell,you're not the only buyer for
it.
I know I'm creating a caricaturehere, but there are people like
that.
And for the buyers, I would say,listen, buyer's market,
absorption rate's low, calm,pick your spot, be successful.
(24:55):
There's something to be said forgoing for the jugular,
proverbial, but I think you alsohave to keep a rational head.
And that's what some buyersaren't doing out there.
So opportunity, fortune favorsthe bold.
And I mentioned this before.
Buyers want to feel good.
They want to buy on the way backup.
I've given you these numbersbefore.
(25:15):
I can even picture it in myhead.
Say that a stock or a widget orreal estate is trading at$100.
It goes down to 95, then 90,then 85, then 80.
and then 75, and the buyer says,jeez, I should really buy in.
But the buyer's afraid of what?
It drops to 70.
So the buyer doesn't buy in, itdrops to 70, and the buyer says,
(25:38):
thank God, because it droppedfurther.
Then it goes to 75, then it goesto 80, then it goes to 85, and
then that buyer buys in at92.50.
Now, 92.50, still below the 100,That buyer got a deal, but the
buyer could have bought it at 75and they didn't.
The buyer would rather buy onthe way back up because they
feel good.
That is where so many buyers areright now.
(26:00):
And as I said, no need to panic.
Fortune favors the bold.
Opportunity, I wouldn't say of alifetime, but for some, I
remember, I think it was RobCarrick that wrote a few months
ago about what an incredibleopportunity this is for this
next generation to buy into thereal estate market.
That's a guy that's a realestate bear, but his article was
fantastic, and it talked abouthow prices have come down since
(26:22):
the 2022 peak, and now you'vegot interest rates declining.
Very surprised to see somebodywho's bearish on real estate
write a headline like that.
But again, personal financecalmness that recognizes the
opportunity.
So for sellers, I would sayreact very quickly.
If your home isn't moving,adjust before the market tells
you that you need to.
Stale listings look likeproperties that nobody wants.
(26:44):
And so while I'm amazed I've gota listing on the market for 62
cumulative days through twolistings and someone comes in
and makes an offer, there are alot of folks out there that
aren't seeing that.
Now, I don't want to toot my ownhorn, but as I said earlier, I
am rolling out the red carpetfor cooperating agents.
None of this nonsense about, no,we won't even look at it.
Don't bother.
All my listings are staged.
They look perfect.
There's a reason why our thingsare selling through 65, 70 days
(27:07):
in the market.
But when you have a stalelisting, Mr.
and Mrs.
Seller, it looks like a propertythat nobody else wants.
Now, price realistically fromthe beginning, we mentioned
don't wait too long to reduce,but you've got to be realistic
about the price point.
We need saleable listings inthis market.
And so when I put something outat$9.99 that I think, oh gosh, I
hope, I hope, I hope, and thensomeone else lists for
(27:29):
$1,099,000, I'm like, okay,great.
Now the seller might be like,David, what?
These people just listed for$1,099,000.
Yes, they're crazy and they'regonna sit and they'll reduce
three times and they'll end upwith less.
So don't second guess yourself.
Do your research, figure it outin advance and move forward.
And last but not least, my pointhere, be reasonable.
(27:52):
Know what year it is.
I can't make it any clearer thanthat.
And this is not just forsellers, which this point says,
but it's for sellers, buyers,and agents.
Understand the market that we'rein.
Now, as I said, for agents, stoppretending.
Be the voice of reason and notreassurance.
Your client tells you they want1.6 for their house that you
appraised at market peak in 2022for 1.3.
(28:14):
Be the voice of reason.
Don't just say, yep, that'sgreat, perfect, let's go ahead
and do that.
Because so much of that ishappening out there.
And someone commented on myblog, I believe it was on
Monday's post.
And they said, we need a newstatistic for new, new listing
and new, new, new listing.
It was a joke, but they'resaying we need relisting and
re-relisting because there's somuch nonsense out there.
(28:36):
People just price over and overand over.
If a tree falls in the woods andno one's around to hear it, does
it make a sound?
Yeah, okay.
But if you price something sofar out of whack with the market
and no one's looking at it, isit really for sale?
That was the point I believethat that reader was trying to
make.
Smart players act early.
They don't rush.
They read the room better thanthe rest.
(28:58):
Again, I'm gonna repeat theexample of buying on the way
down and getting a better pricethan buying on the way back up,
but I have seen this over andover and over again through
every market cycle, 08, 17, 22.
People feel real comfortablebuying on the way back up.
So listen, my bottom linetakeaway, markets don't always
shout before they shift.
Sometimes they whisper.
(29:20):
Yeah, I have a flair for thedramatics, but honestly, if
you're the kind of client thatwants to move smartly, whether
you're buying or selling, youneed to be listening to these
whispers and not just theheadlines.
The problem in this market isthat the media is always behind
and those whispers are happeningat the ground level and only via
the top agents.
And I'm so sorry if you don'tlike that.
You think all agents are thesame.
The agents that do the businessand should I talk about?
(29:43):
Okay, sure.
Why not?
We brought out six listings thisweek.
We are busy.
We are working with a multitudeof buyers.
We have five other listings thatare on the market.
I'm not saying that to brag, butrather to say that is what we
are doing.
I have talked to six or sevendifferent agents on the phone
today in different areas aboutwhat is happening in those
markets, price points, andgeographic areas.
(30:04):
Then you've got your agent,Billy.
Yeah, he's a nice guy.
He told me I should just listthe house for whatever I want.
Guys, come on.
It's crunch time.
We are so far beyond that rightnow.
And it doesn't matter whetherthe market is up, down, or
sideways.
You should always be listeningto somebody that's in the know.
(30:26):
But it seems like, it's funnysaying this, everyone's got a
podcast.
Everyone's got an opinion.
Everyone wants to talk realestate.
The media, they're justreporting on what happened six
weeks ago.
But the agents out there, somany of them are not informed.
And as I said, these whispersare happening at ground level.
And the rest of the agents justaren't getting it.
So what does it mean for you,the buyers?
(30:48):
Ask your agent what's happeningwith other listings, not just
the one you want.
Do not have tunnel vision.
Ask the agent for stats, formacro views, more than just,
hey, what's our plan with thisparticular property?
And have a backup plan, becauseI've seen people wait and wait
and wait, and then it sells, andthen what?
Now, if it's a one bed, one bathcondo, I'm sure there's going to
be another one.
But as I said, be opportunistic.
(31:09):
Fortune favors the bold.
But man...
pigs get slaughtered when itcomes to greed.
And if you're waiting forsomething, the more days it's on
the market, the better deal Ican get.
You got to take a step back andsay, I'm doing really well on
this.
Buying a house for my family.
My wife is pregnant.
Whatever it is, I need to get myson to that particular school
district for September.
Remember that real estate is nota pure investment play.
There is more to it.
Now for the sellers, you do notget a second chance at a first
(31:33):
listing impression.
And so again, I don't want totoot our horn here.
We are not changing what we doin this market.
Every one of our properties, getthe sellers out, get their stuff
out, stage it, paint it, repairit, clean it, photograph it,
videos, virtual tour, Instagram,social media, it has to be
perfect.
And that's the way that we'redoing it in this market.
(31:54):
That is the only way that it'sworking because when we have a
listing that goes up and itlooks absolutely amazing and
you've got a buyer that'salready a bit nervous and
they're buying with emotion andthen the same model four floors
up has iPhone photos and it'stenanted and it looks like
garbage, I know you want tothink you're the smart person
that would say, I'm going to gofor the one that doesn't look as
good because I can get a betterdeal.
That's not the buyer pool.
(32:16):
They buy with emotion.
Otherwise, I wouldn't be doingwhat I'm doing.
Now, if you're sitting on themarket, adjust before it becomes
a case study.
That's kind of a funny point.
A case study maybe for TorontoRealty Blog because we have done
so many.
And agents, what it means foryou, if your clients are
nervous, guess what?
They all are.
Everybody's nervous out there.
Everyone's anxious.
(32:37):
If you're not guiding withclarity, you're just adding to
the noise.
And I would say, and I get it,some agents do one to two deals
a year.
It sounds very silly, but if atree falls in the woods and no
one's around to hear it, does itmake a sound?
If you take your$900,000 condoand you list it for 1.1 million
because you're afraid to tellthe seller what's up, Is it
(32:58):
really listed for sale?
So folks, that is it for me forthis week.
That was fun.
That was a lot.
Love to hear from you.
Feel free to drop me a commentif you're watching on YouTube in
the comments section.
Let me know how you think themarket is doing.
What are you seeing out there?
I always love the predictions.
The market's going to drop 85%.
Good.
Go ahead and post that comment.
We'll see how it ages.
If you are listening to this onSpotify, Apple Music, or
(33:20):
wherever you get your podcasts,please remember to like,
comment, or subscribe.
We'll see you next time here onThe Last Honest Realtor.
Hello everybody and welcome back to the Last Honest
Realtor podcast.
I'm your host, David Fleming.
Thank you so much for joining metoday as we try to cut through
all of the noise out there, andthere is a lot of it, and
discuss the very basics of theToronto real estate market.
Now, nothing basic about it.
I would say that we are throughthe first quarter and we'd love
to discuss some of the amazingstatistics.
(00:21):
I covered this in my blogearlier in the week, but it goes
without saying that betweenDonald Trump and tariffs and the
Dow Jones, the trifecta of newsis Everybody out there is
worried.
And it's not just buyers.
It's not just sellers.
It's not people that are in andout of the market, mortgage
brokers, home inspectors.
Everybody across the board isasking what the heck is
(00:41):
happening in the market.
So for me right now, if I'm abuyer or I'm a seller, I'm a
real estate participant, I'msaying, who am I supposed to
listen to?
Now, I'm not going to say, well,you've got to listen to my
podcast.
But what I am going to say isthat there's so much noise and
irrespective of what DonaldTrump did and what's happening
with the Dow Jones and arepeople still gonna be able to
(01:03):
buy?
Have they lost all theirsavings?
All of the stuff that's reallysensationalizing the media.
What's being missed in this isthat even before this happened,
They were kind of whispers of ashift in the marketplace.
So I've always maintained thatthe media is usually a little
bit behind the story.
If you really want to knowwhat's happening, you've got to
talk to the agents.
And the agents are talking tothemselves.
(01:25):
I mean one another, that is, nottalking to themselves, although
I do that from time to time.
And I find that in the averageweek, I'll probably talk to at
least a dozen agents just to saywhat's happening out there.
What are you seeing?
I literally walked into thekitchen here at Bosley to make
lunch and I saw another agentand I stopped and I said, what
are you seeing?
What's happening in your market?
That's where you're going tofind out what's really going on
(01:46):
in the real estate market, notnecessarily through the news.
So the first point I want tomake it today is that while the
media is kind of giving acautiously optimistic tone, the
agents themselves We, and I meanthe ones that are selling real
estate, not all 72,000, we arelooking at what's happening and
where we think it's going.
(02:07):
This is the time every yearwhere we start to see a little
bit in a shift in the market tosay that maybe April, May,
things usually start to cooloff.
The question is, is this goingto happen a little bit sooner?
So listings are stagnating.
We see buyer energy dipping.
Deals, they're a little bitharder to come by.
And what I want to do today iskind of shine a light on these
whispers and ask the criticalquestions, should we be worried?
(02:31):
I don't mean about the DowJones.
I don't mean about Donald Trump.
I don't mean about tariffs.
I'm talking about the market ingeneral.
And I'm not leading in sayingthat you should or shouldn't.
I'm saying what are thequestions that you should be
asking of yourself, your realestate agent.
And I wanna start with overallsales data.
So if you're a stats nerd likeme, go and take a look at
Toronto Realty blog where Ibroke down the March statistics.
(02:52):
We're coming off of a Marchwhere we saw 5,011 sales.
That is the lowest sales ever,by ever I mean since 2000 when I
started tracking the data.
And it's not even close to theprevious lowest, which was 2009.
That was 6,171 sales.
So we're like 18% behind thesecond fewest.
That was what March was.
The absorption rate in the condomarket is back down to barely
(03:15):
over a quarter.
That means one out of every fourlistings is producing a sale
that is incredibly bleak.
And that is in the 416 and the905.
When I say listings, I mean,look, we could list the same
property five times.
But that is the ratio of salesto listings.
And...
I would say that there are somany anecdotes out there and you
could walk into any brokerageand listen to any agent talk or
(03:37):
any team meeting or any rah-rahconvention about how to sell
real estate.
And what I wanna know is whatdoes the data say?
What's happening on the offernights?
What's happening in thenegotiating tables?
There's just so much nonsense tocut through.
So look, there's nothing likethe tension of a market that
won't say what it's thinking,but the agents are talking and I
(04:00):
spoke to an agent the other daythat called me on one of my
listings.
He said to me, I'd bring you anoffer, but I think it's a waste
of time.
Unique perspective.
I mean, is it for a dollar?
I said, what do you mean bythat?
And he said, follow this.
This is absolutely amazing.
He said, I've spoken to so manylisting agents lately and I tell
(04:22):
them what I want to bring andthey say, don't bother.
Now, I recognize by telling youwhat I'm about to tell you, you
could say, oh, David, you'rejust trying to clear out
inventory, sell it for thelowest possible price.
Hang on a second.
Hold that thought.
In order to do a deal, you needto get an offer.
So right off the bat, if youtell somebody don't bother, and
yeah, there are times.
(04:42):
There are times when you mightnegotiate like that.
But if you're telling someonedon't bother, you're shooting
yourself in the foot.
So let me give you an example.
I bring out a listing at$4million.
And in the first 48 hours,someone says, I'm thinking I
might bring 3.8.
Don't bother.
Don't bother.
We're not taking a penny underlist.
That is negotiating.
That is leverage.
(05:02):
That is a very differentscenario than the condo I've got
on the market for 85 days.
And someone says, they're goingto bring me an offer.
I'm going to say, don't bother.
These are the conversations thatagents are having.
And this agent that called meand said, too many people are
telling me don't bother.
It completely echoes what wewere talking about at our Bosley
meeting three days prior.
(05:23):
Why would you ever say don'tbother?
So good agents understand how towork in a changing market.
Agents are talking, but onlysome of them know what's
happening.
And when I got this offer, andyes, it was low, it represented
a starting point.
We spent five days negotiatingthis.
It was about price.
It was about closing.
It was about condition.
It was stupid things they wantedus to repair.
(05:44):
hair in the unit because it's afirst-time buyer.
They can't do anything.
Kind of dating myself there, butI'm going to expect it's a young
20-something.
Long story short, had I beenlike every other agent and said,
don't bother bringing me theoffer, I wouldn't have a sale,
my client wouldn't be moving on,and all those other agents out
there are doing what?
Sitting with their sellerclients.
(06:05):
So the whispers that we'retalking about.
One of the whispers is thatagents are kind of talking about
fewer showings.
Now it's not something thatwe're going to advertise.
This is why I'm referring to itas a whisper.
In a busy market, and I alwaysprep my clients by having a
phone call the night before thelisting, and I would say that in
a busy market or just a slightlyabove average market, your
(06:26):
second day of the listing, It'swhen you get the most showings.
I tell my clients for afreehold, you're at 9.99, we
have an offer date, we want 1.2.
I'd love to see four to fiveshowings booked the first day,
six to eight showings booked thesecond day, another four to five
the next day, and so on.
I'll set a target.
I'd love to see 40 showings.
What I'm seeing right now isthat showings, are starting to
(06:48):
go down.
And these are the whispers amongthe agent pool out there that
are saying, I'm just not gettingas many showings.
So a great example is a propertythat I sold with a bully offer.
I had 14 showings booked, notthrough, but 14 booked in the
first three days.
The target that I had set wasabout 20.
This was below average.
Now I also look for how manypeople are gonna ask for a copy
(07:11):
of the home inspection.
That's a very good indication ofinterest.
I had two.
I was hoping to have six orseven.
So by the time we got this bullyoffer, it was an absolute
no-brainer.
We took it and we ran.
Now, I don't wanna say it waslucky, I would say that it was
good fortune, but at the end ofthe day, and this is gonna play
into some of the other thingsthat we're talking about, my
(07:31):
clients were realistic, I wasdefinitely realistic, and we
were in tune with the currentmarket because it changes so
quickly, and when it's changing,you have to absolutely change
with it.
So another whisper out there isthat I don't wanna use the term
bidding war because define abidding war, what is that
really?
But the 999 listing that gets 14offers and sells for a million
(07:53):
350 where the four top highestwere sent back a couple of
times, that is happening moreinfrequently.
So a colleague of mine, she hada listing in the West End, she
did have 12 offers, she told methat she worked with the top
four and that all four improvedand then once they were done,
the person that was maybe numberthree bid against himself, she
didn't even ask them to, theycame up.
I'm not saying it doesn'thappen, but I'm saying that
(08:15):
having looked at what's sellingin competition, having monitored
the number of offers, we arenoticing that the bidding wars,
so to speak, I wouldn't say thebidding wars are happening.
I'd say even the over asking,it's only in select situations.
So I feel already this is comingoff as negative, pessimistic,
bearish.
(08:35):
It's not all that, guys.
What it is, is about being intune with the market.
you have a C minus house, youlist low with an offer date,
what are you expecting tohappen?
The A plus house list low withan offer date, absolutely gonna
sell, gonna be a slobberknocker.
But we're not in 2022 where youcan take a dog listing,
underprice it and expectmultiple offers.
(08:58):
So listings that might have soldlast year within a certain
timeframe aren't selling now.
What I'm seeing is that 30 days,that used to be like, oh, 30
days, we should talk aboutreducing the price.
I'd say it's less now.
It really is.
And not to say that, and bearwith me here, you should
probably think, well, let'sreduce the price in 60 days now
(09:18):
instead of 30.
It's not that.
It's that within 15 days, we'vehad zero to one showings.
Okay, yeah, we've gotta dosomething.
So 60 is the new 30 in terms ofdays on market.
I would say I've had a fewproperties, and this goes back
to last fall, that took 60 days,specifically the condos.
60 is the new 30, and overall,the days on market has certainly
increased.
(09:39):
So...
The next point I want to make,guys, is that it's not panic.
I would describe it asdiscomfort.
I'm tired of hearing thesehyperboles in the market.
And as a tangent, I went on CTVNews last week and we were
talking about this story wherethe Bank of Montreal said
they're going to have to tinkerwith some of the lending
criteria now that there'stariffs and people could be in
(10:01):
affected industries.
The word they used was deny.
The banks are going to denymortgages to people.
No, no, no, no.
They're tinkering.
Okay, that sounds silly,tinkering.
They're not denying mortgages.
They're strengthening theirregulations.
So what I would say here, again,is a word like panic.
I don't like that word.
What I would say is discomfort.
It is discomfort because thesellers are not accustomed to
(10:22):
what they expected, what theywere accustomed to prior, and
the listing agents mostcertainly are not ready for the
change in the market.
So discomfort sometimes has away into turning into something
bigger when no one addresses it.
As I said, a lot of the agentsare out there addressing it
right now.
So concerns beneath the noise.
We talk about buyer fatigue alot.
(10:43):
Usually when we get to say a Mayor a June in a really busy
market where you've got buyersthat have lost five, six, seven
times, that's when the buyerfatigue sets in.
I don't think that we have thatbuyer fatigue in the same way.
What I would say is that thebuyer fatigue now is is the news
cycle.
It started this year withTrump's taking office on the
(11:03):
20th.
We all got to wait and see.
And then it was the tariffs onFebruary 3rd, 30-day extension,
March 3rd.
Then it was April 2nd,Liberation Day.
The buyers are fatigued, not inthe same way that they have been
in years prior, by losing overand over and then getting to
June and saying, I need a break.
The buyers are fatigued by thenonstop news cycle.
(11:24):
So a little bit of the fear maybe starting to set in.
And it's not so much fear ofprices dropping as much as I
would say it's fear of theunknown.
I would also say that, and I'vealways mused, buyers would
rather pay more if they'rebuying on the way up than buy at
the trough and see it go down alittle bit more.
And I'm going to come back tothat.
So, you know, another concernbeneath the noise, sellers
(11:47):
hanging on to fantasy pricing.
They're banking on this springresurgence that might not come I
get so many calls in Jan and Febfrom people saying, I want to
sell in June.
And I say, why June?
Well, that's when the market'sbetter, based on what?
You have been in the same housefor 35 years.
You haven't really transacted.
So selling in June, my argumenthas always been most people have
(12:08):
bought by then.
Another concern beneath thenoise, so to speak, we just
talked about buyers and thefatigue.
Now let's talk about sellers andthe fantasy pricing, because
many of these sellers arebanking on a fantasy price.
Many of them are banking on aspring resurgence that might not
come.
And then many of them,unfortunately, are banking on
both of those things, a fantasyprice.
And of course, it's going tohappen in the spring or the
(12:30):
early summer.
So not exclusive to 2025.
I would say that every year Iget phone calls in January and
February from folks that say,I'm going to sell in June.
And I assume there's a reasonfor it, like that's when they're
retiring or maybe that's whenthey've bought a property out
west and they're moving.
No, the answer is usually, well,that's the best market.
To which I say, based on what?
(12:51):
they don't usually have ananswer.
And I can tell them based onstatistics and based on
empirical evidence, I see everyyear by that point, most buyers
have bought.
And I mentioned that in theprevious point with the idea of
buyer fatigue.
I think that this year, justlike every other year, we will
see a rounding off in the marketin May and June.
I think that for the sellersthat every single year hold out
(13:11):
for that market, this year isgonna be a little bit tougher.
So an anecdote, if you will, notreally an anecdote, a true
story, I guess is a better wayof putting it, but an anecdote,
anecdotal evidence that reallydrives this point home has to do
with somebody that called melast week, hadn't heard from in
years, remembered the name,remembered the property, and
this person said, you appraisedmy home at 1.5 million, I'm
(13:34):
ready to sell.
Now, to my absolute horror, Iwent into my computer and I
looked at the date on theappraisal, opinion of value, if
you will, and it was February of2022.
That's great.
February of 2022.
For those not in the know, thatis the absolute peak of our
market.
That was the highest averagehome price and we have fallen
(13:55):
off since there.
So I said, yes, I appraise itfor 1.5 million.
What do you think it's worthtoday?
And they said, well, you know,we would take 1.5.
No, sorry, sorry.
I appraised your home at theabsolute peak of the market like
15, 20% ago.
What do you think it's worthnow?
And this conversation went onabout 1.5, 1.5 and a quarter,
(14:15):
1.49.
And I'm finding myself shoutinginto the phone, your house is
worth 1.3 million.
Now, Chris went over and metwith the sellers.
Chris did a full walkthrough.
He reported back and he said,yeah, they've got some serious
work to do.
But the seller got it ahead ofit.
The seller, nice gentleman,said, totally upfront and
honest, called me and said,listen, I've given it a lot of
(14:38):
thought.
My wife and I are not preparedto list this for less than$1.6
million.
I get it, I'm in sales, I'm ajerk.
I only wanna sell propertiesthat are realistically gonna
sell.
No, it's not like that.
I cannot wave a magic wand.
I have to work in the marketthat we're in.
I told them, yes, had you soldin February of 2022 at the
(14:59):
absolute peak, you would havegot 1.5 million.
That could be a one, two houseright now for all I know.
And I don't know because nothingis selling in that area.
And for them to say 1.6 million,it just goes to show you the
element of fantasy pricing.
So another anecdote, if youwill, a colleague of mine made
an offer on a home.
There were eight offers.
(15:19):
The listing agent tried everytrick in the book.
couldn't get up to a price thatthe seller would accept.
They turned down eight offersand relisted the home.
Now this is very common.
We've talked about this on thispodcast, on Toronto Realty Blog
all the time.
But the market that we're inright now, for a seller to
receive eight offers and turnthem all down, it just speaks to
(15:41):
that element of fantasy.
So the third concern beneath thenoise, if you will, I mentioned
buyers, I mentioned sellers.
The third part of this would beagents.
Agents are split between thosethat are pretending everything's
totally normal and those thatare prepared for the turbulence.
And that's not a bad thing.
Turbulence.
Every market has turbulence.
(16:01):
The stock market, oh, that wasall Donald Trump and all that.
I get it.
But it doesn't matter whetheryou're selling widgets or
whether you're selling shoes,whether you're selling real
estate.
Every market has ups and downs,peaks and valleys.
It's never turbulence.
a strictly balanced market for35 years straight.
Real estate is no different.
And right now what we're seeingis that the problem, both being
(16:22):
sellers and agents, is that thesellers have fantasy pricing and
the agents won't set themstraight.
So it stems from the sellers,don't get me wrong.
I mentioned the fantasy pricing.
But in my case, I had told thosefolks, your house is worth one
three.
They said, we won't list it forless than one six.
And to finish that thought,because I kind of worried that I
came off as a jerk there, I saidto them, guys, I'd absolutely
(16:43):
love to do this for you.
I think I'm better than anyagent out there in terms of
getting you the highest possibleprice.
but you guys are really, reallyfar off.
And they did not understand orthey didn't want to understand
and didn't hear back from them.
So had they said this listing isyours, David at 1.6, thank you
so much, I'm gonna pass.
It's yours at 1.5, thank you somuch, I'm gonna pass.
(17:03):
I can't wave a magic wand.
They're so far out of whack withthe pricing.
But at the same time, there arethousands of agents that will
list that property.
That is what I'm talking aboutwhen I talk about a split
between those pretending it'sfine and those preparing for
turbulence.
That concern beneath the noise,the buyers, the sellers, and the
agent.
So on the surface, our market'sonly down two to two and a half
(17:26):
percent.
I'm talking year over year.
In February, it was 2.2%.
In March, it was 2.5.
But behind the scenes, the salesare lower than last year and the
offer dates are starting tofalter.
So put this all together and youcan start to see on the surface
everything's fine andeverything's normal and
everything's well and good butthen we get rocked by Trump,
tariffs, trade war, Dow Jonesand you're starting to see the
(17:49):
fissures.
Now another thing I want to talkabout in the context of this
market is pattern recognition.
So here's a fun analogy.
Think about a movie with the FBIor the police where they have
one of those big bulletinboards.
And they've got all thesepictures and those strings that
connect the suspects to theevidence and what have you.
If you're wondering where thisis going, trust me.
(18:10):
In 2017, that was the first timeI had ever seen like a major
shift in the market.
And I recall the run-up January,February, March, and into early
April where things wereabsolutely ripping.
And we started to see propertiesnot selling or being relisted.
So I would print them and Iwould kind of keep them over
here on my desk.
And then I ran out of room and Iwould put them over here on And
(18:32):
you know where this is going.
Eventually, Chris and I wentinto the boardroom at the old
Bosley building on MertonStreet.
We started taping them to thewall.
And eventually, like they do inthese police dramas, we started
kind of connecting them witharrows and stuff.
We were trying to make sense ofthe pattern.
And it was essentially that themarket was dying.
(18:52):
That's what we concluded.
But when it's happening soslowly, you don't recognize the
pattern when you're in it.
You only recognize it after thefact.
So picture a market where Jan,Feb, March, everything's getting
offers, everything's selling.
And then you see this propertydidn't sell.
Oh, this property didn't sell.
And this property didn't sell.
And you start to say, what ishappening here?
So we're putting all the relistsup.
(19:14):
We're taking all the ones thatdidn't sell.
We're still keeping track ofwhat did sell.
And we're looking for thosepatterns.
Now, that was 2017.
That was, I can't believe it,eight years ago.
We saw a similar thing happen in2022.
But in 2022, it was basicallythe government saying, hey,
we're going to make ratesskyrocket.
The party's over.
They essentially announced it in2017.
(19:35):
Yes, the federal government wassaying housing's too expensive,
and between the municipality andthe province and the federal
government, we're going to takesteps to try to make housing
more affordable.
Sure, they signaled that wemight see a downturn in the
market, but they didn'tartificially, or rather that was
artificial, they didn'tintentionally take steps to
reduce prices like thegovernment did in 2022 when they
(19:57):
increased interest rates.
Now, They didn't set out toreduce home prices, but they set
out to remove affordability,which would in turn reduce
prices.
So that was 2017.
That was the first time that Ireally ever sat down to identify
the pattern.
And I've been aware of that eversince.
And what I'm trying to say isthat when we're in a market like
this, where we feel like there'swhispers, we feel like there's a
(20:18):
shift, you being either thebuyer, the seller, or hopefully
the agent, need to really lookand try to get out ahead of the
market and get it ahead of whereit's going.
It's not unlike Wayne Gretzkysaying, I pass to where I know
the player is going to be.
You need to look at where themarket is going to be and that's
through pattern recognition.
So I mentioned that over thelast few years we've seen these
(20:40):
gangbuster first few months andit levels off where usually most
people have bought or usually ina red hot market people are so
tired of losing that they puttheir searches on hold.
Post May 2-4 weekend for methat's kind of the measure I've
seen over the last few years.
Don't quote me on it becausethis year is an awkward year but
pay attention to the patterns.
Pay attention to the number ofrelists, which is something I'm
(21:01):
going to talk on, and then lookfor the red flags.
So the changing buyer behavior,the stale inventory, the rising
days on market, I look at failedoffer dates.
So last night, there was a hostof properties that had offer
dates, and I simply went intoBroker Bay at 9.30 at night, and
I checked every single one.
You click register offer, yougo, it tells you how many offers
(21:22):
are registered.
A ton of properties with zerooffers.
Now we're going to see what?
relists.
So you get the person thatwanted 1.3 million.
They listed at 999.
I've told you showings are down.
Requests for home inspectionsare down.
Bully offers are down.
What do they do when they end upwith zero offers?
Do they relist at 1299?
Do they relist higher?
(21:42):
The seller wants 1.3.
I need to build in thenegotiating cushion.
I'll put it up at 1349.
What are those folks doing?
Are they leaving it for twoweeks with the note that the
offer date is somewhere in thepast?
Those are the patterns thatwe're trying to recognize.
So I think as far As far asabsorption rate goes, another
very important statistics, onethat I love talking about on my
blog, I'm writing a blog rightnow which will be up in a couple
(22:04):
of days, about the condo marketand that declining absorption
rate.
Now that absorption rate hasalways been way lower than the
overall market, but what I sawin the month of March, with the
overall absorption rate was 29%,And the condo market absorption
rate was 26%.
I would expect that the condomarket absorption rate is always
10 to 15% lower than the overallmarket.
(22:25):
But a 29% absorption rate, forthose not fully aware, that
means the ratio of sales to newlistings is 29%.
Anything below 50% is at leastin theory a buyer's market.
You can argue that at 45 or 40%,well, you know, it depends on
where you are.
29%, there's no argument thatthat's anything like a seller's
(22:45):
market.
So my take on this section,guys, we've seen false alarms
many times before, but some ofthe ingredients this time feel a
little too familiar.
And the false alarms,notwithstanding, the real alarm
here, and I hate to keephammering on this, is Trump,
tariffs, and the Dow Jones.
I've never seen anything likeit.
(23:06):
And I think I lived through it.
2001, the tech meltdown.
I remember I was in universityand I'd walk in the business
center and you'd see the tickerand it's this stock's down 30%.
But it was different.
And I could tell you storiesabout this.
I tried telling people thataren't of the same vintage.
The internet was new.
Somebody could be likestamps.com.
(23:27):
I bookmarked the URL.
Now I'm fundraising.
What are you gonna do with that?
I'm gonna sell stamps on theinternet.
Chairs.com, yeah, we sellchairs.
Great, here's$200 million ofseed capital.
No wonder that market tanked.
I lived through that.
It was crazy.
2008.
Financial crisis, a meltdown,which now behind the scenes, we
obviously know, was a long timecoming with mortgage-backed
(23:47):
securities.
We can talk about the 2017 realestate peak in Toronto.
Well, that was just a longrun-up.
2022, well, that was based onCOVID.
Everyone moving, everyone buyingat low interest rates.
Now, here we are in 2025.
Trump, tariffs, Dow Jones.
Never seen anything like it.
So should you panic?
No.
but there are a few things thatyou need to know.
(24:08):
For buyers, you have negotiatingpower, but do not assume that
that means everything's a deal.
I always look at the propertywhere, again, I keep using the
same numbers over and over, butit's a$1.2 million house and
it's listed at 999 with an offerdate and the cocky buyer walks
in and he's like, well, I hadall my money in cash when the
Dow Jones went down 15% and nowI'm gonna offer 900,000 on this
(24:30):
house because the world's onfire.
Listen, dude, yeah, good foryou, but it's still Toronto,
still the real estate market,it's 2025, it's a million two
house, they don't have to sell,you're not the only buyer for
it.
I know I'm creating a caricaturehere, but there are people like
that.
And for the buyers, I would say,listen, buyer's market,
absorption rate's low, calm,pick your spot, be successful.
(24:55):
There's something to be said forgoing for the jugular,
proverbial, but I think you alsohave to keep a rational head.
And that's what some buyersaren't doing out there.
So opportunity, fortune favorsthe bold.
And I mentioned this before.
Buyers want to feel good.
They want to buy on the way backup.
I've given you these numbersbefore.
(25:15):
I can even picture it in myhead.
Say that a stock or a widget orreal estate is trading at$100.
It goes down to 95, then 90,then 85, then 80.
and then 75, and the buyer says,jeez, I should really buy in.
But the buyer's afraid of what?
It drops to 70.
So the buyer doesn't buy in, itdrops to 70, and the buyer says,
(25:38):
thank God, because it droppedfurther.
Then it goes to 75, then it goesto 80, then it goes to 85, and
then that buyer buys in at92.50.
Now, 92.50, still below the 100,That buyer got a deal, but the
buyer could have bought it at 75and they didn't.
The buyer would rather buy onthe way back up because they
feel good.
That is where so many buyers areright now.
(26:00):
And as I said, no need to panic.
Fortune favors the bold.
Opportunity, I wouldn't say of alifetime, but for some, I
remember, I think it was RobCarrick that wrote a few months
ago about what an incredibleopportunity this is for this
next generation to buy into thereal estate market.
That's a guy that's a realestate bear, but his article was
fantastic, and it talked abouthow prices have come down since
(26:22):
the 2022 peak, and now you'vegot interest rates declining.
Very surprised to see somebodywho's bearish on real estate
write a headline like that.
But again, personal financecalmness that recognizes the
opportunity.
So for sellers, I would sayreact very quickly.
If your home isn't moving,adjust before the market tells
you that you need to.
Stale listings look likeproperties that nobody wants.
(26:44):
And so while I'm amazed I've gota listing on the market for 62
cumulative days through twolistings and someone comes in
and makes an offer, there are alot of folks out there that
aren't seeing that.
Now, I don't want to toot my ownhorn, but as I said earlier, I
am rolling out the red carpetfor cooperating agents.
None of this nonsense about, no,we won't even look at it.
Don't bother.
All my listings are staged.
They look perfect.
There's a reason why our thingsare selling through 65, 70 days
(27:07):
in the market.
But when you have a stalelisting, Mr.
and Mrs.
Seller, it looks like a propertythat nobody else wants.
Now, price realistically fromthe beginning, we mentioned
don't wait too long to reduce,but you've got to be realistic
about the price point.
We need saleable listings inthis market.
And so when I put something outat$9.99 that I think, oh gosh, I
hope, I hope, I hope, and thensomeone else lists for
(27:29):
$1,099,000, I'm like, okay,great.
Now the seller might be like,David, what?
These people just listed for$1,099,000.
Yes, they're crazy and they'regonna sit and they'll reduce
three times and they'll end upwith less.
So don't second guess yourself.
Do your research, figure it outin advance and move forward.
And last but not least, my pointhere, be reasonable.
(27:52):
Know what year it is.
I can't make it any clearer thanthat.
And this is not just forsellers, which this point says,
but it's for sellers, buyers,and agents.
Understand the market that we'rein.
Now, as I said, for agents, stoppretending.
Be the voice of reason and notreassurance.
Your client tells you they want1.6 for their house that you
appraised at market peak in 2022for 1.3.
(28:14):
Be the voice of reason.
Don't just say, yep, that'sgreat, perfect, let's go ahead
and do that.
Because so much of that ishappening out there.
And someone commented on myblog, I believe it was on
Monday's post.
And they said, we need a newstatistic for new, new listing
and new, new, new listing.
It was a joke, but they'resaying we need relisting and
re-relisting because there's somuch nonsense out there.
(28:36):
People just price over and overand over.
If a tree falls in the woods andno one's around to hear it, does
it make a sound?
Yeah, okay.
But if you price something sofar out of whack with the market
and no one's looking at it, isit really for sale?
That was the point I believethat that reader was trying to
make.
Smart players act early.
They don't rush.
They read the room better thanthe rest.
(28:58):
Again, I'm gonna repeat theexample of buying on the way
down and getting a better pricethan buying on the way back up,
but I have seen this over andover and over again through
every market cycle, 08, 17, 22.
People feel real comfortablebuying on the way back up.
So listen, my bottom linetakeaway, markets don't always
shout before they shift.
Sometimes they whisper.
(29:20):
Yeah, I have a flair for thedramatics, but honestly, if
you're the kind of client thatwants to move smartly, whether
you're buying or selling, youneed to be listening to these
whispers and not just theheadlines.
The problem in this market isthat the media is always behind
and those whispers are happeningat the ground level and only via
the top agents.
And I'm so sorry if you don'tlike that.
You think all agents are thesame.
The agents that do the businessand should I talk about?
(29:43):
Okay, sure.
Why not?
We brought out six listings thisweek.
We are busy.
We are working with a multitudeof buyers.
We have five other listings thatare on the market.
I'm not saying that to brag, butrather to say that is what we
are doing.
I have talked to six or sevendifferent agents on the phone
today in different areas aboutwhat is happening in those
markets, price points, andgeographic areas.
(30:04):
Then you've got your agent,Billy.
Yeah, he's a nice guy.
He told me I should just listthe house for whatever I want.
Guys, come on.
It's crunch time.
We are so far beyond that rightnow.
And it doesn't matter whetherthe market is up, down, or
sideways.
You should always be listeningto somebody that's in the know.
(30:26):
But it seems like, it's funnysaying this, everyone's got a
podcast.
Everyone's got an opinion.
Everyone wants to talk realestate.
The media, they're justreporting on what happened six
weeks ago.
But the agents out there, somany of them are not informed.
And as I said, these whispersare happening at ground level.
And the rest of the agents justaren't getting it.
So what does it mean for you,the buyers?
(30:48):
Ask your agent what's happeningwith other listings, not just
the one you want.
Do not have tunnel vision.
Ask the agent for stats, formacro views, more than just,
hey, what's our plan with thisparticular property?
And have a backup plan, becauseI've seen people wait and wait
and wait, and then it sells, andthen what?
Now, if it's a one bed, one bathcondo, I'm sure there's going to
be another one.
But as I said, be opportunistic.
(31:09):
Fortune favors the bold.
But man...
pigs get slaughtered when itcomes to greed.
And if you're waiting forsomething, the more days it's on
the market, the better deal Ican get.
You got to take a step back andsay, I'm doing really well on
this.
Buying a house for my family.
My wife is pregnant.
Whatever it is, I need to get myson to that particular school
district for September.
Remember that real estate is nota pure investment play.
There is more to it.
Now for the sellers, you do notget a second chance at a first
(31:33):
listing impression.
And so again, I don't want totoot our horn here.
We are not changing what we doin this market.
Every one of our properties, getthe sellers out, get their stuff
out, stage it, paint it, repairit, clean it, photograph it,
videos, virtual tour, Instagram,social media, it has to be
perfect.
And that's the way that we'redoing it in this market.
(31:54):
That is the only way that it'sworking because when we have a
listing that goes up and itlooks absolutely amazing and
you've got a buyer that'salready a bit nervous and
they're buying with emotion andthen the same model four floors
up has iPhone photos and it'stenanted and it looks like
garbage, I know you want tothink you're the smart person
that would say, I'm going to gofor the one that doesn't look as
good because I can get a betterdeal.
That's not the buyer pool.
(32:16):
They buy with emotion.
Otherwise, I wouldn't be doingwhat I'm doing.
Now, if you're sitting on themarket, adjust before it becomes
a case study.
That's kind of a funny point.
A case study maybe for TorontoRealty Blog because we have done
so many.
And agents, what it means foryou, if your clients are
nervous, guess what?
They all are.
Everybody's nervous out there.
Everyone's anxious.
(32:37):
If you're not guiding withclarity, you're just adding to
the noise.
And I would say, and I get it,some agents do one to two deals
a year.
It sounds very silly, but if atree falls in the woods and no
one's around to hear it, does itmake a sound?
If you take your$900,000 condoand you list it for 1.1 million
because you're afraid to tellthe seller what's up, Is it
(32:58):
really listed for sale?
So folks, that is it for me forthis week.
That was fun.
That was a lot.
Love to hear from you.
Feel free to drop me a commentif you're watching on YouTube in
the comments section.
Let me know how you think themarket is doing.
What are you seeing out there?
I always love the predictions.
The market's going to drop 85%.
Good.
Go ahead and post that comment.
We'll see how it ages.
If you are listening to this onSpotify, Apple Music, or
(33:20):
wherever you get your podcasts,please remember to like,
comment, or subscribe.
We'll see you next time here onThe Last Honest Realtor.
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