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July 2, 2025 33 mins

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In this episode of The Last Honest Realtor, David Fleming strips away the summer optimism and asks the question on every homeowner’s mind: when Toronto heads for the cottage, does the real estate market grind to a halt?

With data-driven analysis and candid field stories, David unpacks the seasonal myths and inconvenient truths behind sluggish sales, desperate price cuts, and the rush of sellers hoping the fall will “save” their year. If you’re expecting a summer lull, brace yourself—this year, it’s more than just the temperature that’s set to drop.

In This Episode:

  • The reality behind Toronto’s summer market slow-down—and why it’s worse than usual in 2025
  • Why buyers, sellers, and agents all pin their hopes on the fall, despite the numbers
  • The surge of latecomers listing in June, and what it reveals about seller psychology
  • How market fatigue is fueling a record number of relistings and terminated listings
  • What absorption rates and sales volumes actually say about condo and freehold demand
  • Why the rental market is bucking its own seasonal trends—and what it means for investors
  • Interest rate cuts: what to expect, and why predictions rarely pan out as planned
  • Lessons from the data: market troughs, false optimism, and how to make decisions in a buyer-seller standoff


Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro: Toronto real estate meets vacation season
02:00 – Summer market myths vs. 2025 reality
05:00 – The June seller rush: who lists, and why
09:00 – Sluggish sales and the cold, hard numbers
14:00 – The relisting spiral: inside the cycle of failed listings
18:00 – Why sellers are betting on the fall (and why that rarely works)
22:00 – Condos, rentals, and the decline of the “hot” summer market
28:00 – Predictions, data, and the path forward for buyers and sellers
33:00 – Closing thoughts: decision-making in a market on pause

Subscribe, comment, and share this episode with anyone banking on a summer sale—or expecting the market to do their heavy lifting.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_01 (00:00):
It's officially summer and you are going on
vacation, but is the Torontoreal estate market going along
with you?
Hello, everybody, and welcomeback to the Last Honest Realtor
podcast.
I'm your host, David Fleming.
Thank you for joining me todayon this absolutely sweltering
day.
We usually film a week inadvance, so by the time you
watch this, maybe it will havecooled down to 31.

(00:21):
It is wild outside right now,and for those of us whose air
conditioners stopped workinglast night, it's been a tough
one.
But seriously though, we're insummer, and a lot of questions
need to be asked about what asummer real estate market looks
like.
Now today, I wanna talk aboutthe summer market, and I want to
talk about predictions or at thevery least discussion points,

(00:43):
because I noticed that peoplereally like predictions.
They like to talk about thefuture.
I've seen an uptick in trafficon the videos that I've done
anytime we talk about what tolook out for or what's ahead.
So not to say that that's whywe're doing it, but I'd also be
remiss if I didn't add that inthe month of May on Toronto
Realty Blog, my stats post wascalled past, present or future.

(01:04):
And basically I theorized thatthere are three different types
of real estate participants orenthusiasts, if you will, there
are those that are alwayslooking ahead.
They always want to know whatthe market is doing for whatever
reason.
Is it because they're thinkingabout making a move?
Is it the opposite?
They're incredibly nervous.
Then there are those that arealways looking back.
And so for some of those people,yeah, it's looking back with

(01:26):
regret.
I should have bought.
What was I thinking?
Or it's looking back at movesthey made or moves that they
didn't.
For whatever reason, they arefixated on past prices.
And then there are those thatare living in the present.
And believe it or not, I wouldsay that that represents the
smallest group of the three.
Now, when I wrote this blog lastmonth, I was simply talking
about the May Treb stats, butessentially saying that where we

(01:46):
are in the market right now, youcan, of course, choose to look
back.
Oh my gosh, 2022, that was thepeak.
I can't believe how far we'vefallen.
Or you could look forward.
We're in a dip right now andprices are going to go up
eventually.
They do.
You could look forward tointerest rate cuts.
Or you could look forward todoom and gloom.
There's wars going on, Trump,tariffs, taxes, the three

(02:08):
things.
Isn't that over?
That was so February.
So then, of course, you canchoose to look in the present.
And we've done a lot of that onThe Last Honest Realtor in a
little while.
Today, I want to talk aboutpredictions for the summer.
Now, prediction number one, it'sgoing to be hot.
I just decided I wanted to getahead.
I wanted to put a prediction inthere that we know...

(02:28):
is going to come to fruition.
It is 36 degrees.
And I mentioned that we had theAC fail last night.
It didn't completely fail.
It was 81 degrees.
That's very hot.
Some of you work in Celsius.
I don't know how to change thethermostat.
Suffice it to say, the familyslept in the basement.
My wife and kids slept on thebig sectional couch in the TV

(02:48):
room.
And because, I don't know, Iguess I'm selfish, I slept in
the bed in the basement bedroom.
That was nice.
Although 81, that was a lot.
Now we also, last weekend, Onthat really hot Sunday, we had a
blackout in our area.
I was outside vacuuming leaves,as one does, and all of a sudden
the vacuum cut out and then myson came running outside and he

(03:10):
said, Daddy, we have a hugeproblem.
I said, what is it?
He said, the TV turned off.
And I realized that it was ablackout and not just the fuse
breaker tripped from mevacuuming outside.
So it's been an interestingstart.
June 21st, that's the first dayof summer.
We're in summer.
I cannot believe we're insummer.
We're done spring.
Yeah, David, that's how thecalendar works.

(03:30):
But it's fascinating to mebecause the spring market, as
I've always said, is Januarythrough the end of June, which
is very silly because thatactually goes from winter to
spring to summer.
But what that means, put thisall together, David's stories
about blackouts and hot weather,is that it's the summer market
and it's going to be hot.
And I think that a lot of peopleare going to want to get out of

(03:53):
here.
It's gonna be kind of like,remember in COVID, everyone was
leaving, and then we reachedmaybe in 2024, maybe even 2023,
I think fewer people wereleaving the city.
I think this year is gonna be aget the F out of Dodge type of
summer.
Now, what does that mean for thereal estate market?
I mean, not everybody isleaving.
I'm a homebody.
I mentioned on Sunday what I wasactually doing outside.

(04:14):
I set up an American NinjaWarrior course for my son.
You can go online.
It's 200 bucks.
You get the strap and all ofthe...
Pulleys and monkey bars andstuff like that.
I had to have Chris come overand help.
It was a real two-man job.
But I'm doing that because,yeah, I'm Dougie and I'm going
to be here.
I'm working.
We've got a lot happening.
But that's me and that's realestate.

(04:34):
And that certainly does notrepresent all of the agents or
all of the buyers or thesellers.
So I do believe people are goingto leave the city in droves.
It's going to be a slow summermarket.
But let's move on to realpredictions.
Prediction number two.
People are going to rush tomarket in June.
Now, by the time you watch this,it'll probably be July, but
point being, I was out withclients last night looking at a

(04:54):
place in Forest Hill-ish, right,just on the east side of
Bathurst, let's say, and theyremarked, in addition to this
house being listed at this time,which is a little bit odd and a
little bit late, they said thatin their area where nothing ever
comes up for sale, not one, buttwo properties were listed this
week alone.
And they said to me, looking forthe so-called expert opinion,

(05:17):
why would someone list a houseof that stature in that price
point, appealing to thatparticular demographic, now?
It's a good question.
So my note here says people arerushing to market in June.
Let me turn that around and saypeople were late to market for
April or May.
So I think that all of the folksthat are listing right now Look,

(05:41):
if you decided at Christmas orNew Year's, you're gonna be a
seller in 2025, did you circleJune 27th on your calendar?
That's actually my sister'sbirthday.
I gotta send flowers.
And today's my friend Ryan'sbirthday.
Damn it, damn it, you gotta texthim.
So would you target the 27th ofJune?
I don't think so, but there's alot of folks that are listening

(06:01):
right now.
As I said, I think that thereare two groups.
One are the people that areincredibly late, and two, are
the people that are incrediblyearly.
So if you think that the marketis going to slow down, and you
decide that you don't wanna waituntil the fall market,
post-Labor Day, and we'll comeback to that in a few points,
you might decide to list rightnow.

(06:22):
The summer market can be slow,and I'm talking for freehold,
okay?
The condo market is what it is,but the freehold market
generally works around theschool calendar, and not
everyone has kids, not everyoneis having them, not everyone has
a home with three children init, and as soon as school
finishes, they summer in Italy.
They use summer as a verb.
Ah, we were summering with theJohnsons.
You know those people?

(06:43):
Except it's probably not theJohnsons, it's probably like the
Van Smyth, the Thirds.
They like to use the wordsummer.
But they also use the word plateas a verb.
You know, people that takepictures of food.
Well, and they've plated it verynicely.
The point is, a lot of folks aregonna be summering, and the
freehold market does work aroundthat calendar.
So why in the world would youtake a$4 million house in

(07:04):
Cedarvale and list it right now?
Well, I don't know.
Maybe these folks are just lateor maybe they're exceptionally
early.
Now, I think it's a risk-rewardsituation.
If you have, and this kind ofgoes with that whole theory of
don't list a property before May2-4 weekend or before Canada Day
weekend because everyone's awayon that weekend and your buyer

(07:25):
pool is reduced, some contrarianviews are that, well, you have
fewer competition, lesscompetition, let's say.
So yeah, I could probably listthe following week and have more
buyers, but I'm gonna becompeting against a lot more
stuff.
So again, I don't share thatview.
I would not list before a longweekend and then have an offer
date after that long weekendbecause so many people are gonna

(07:45):
miss it.
But maybe along those lines,some folks are thinking, hey, if
I've got this really great$3million house in Davisville
Village, maybe I'll list itright now because there's not a
lot of competition.
The buyer pool, a lot of themare away.
A lot of them are summering.
But a lot of them are here.
And if you have lesscompetition, and for those folks
that have maybe missed out inApril, May, and June, perhaps

(08:08):
that's not a terrible idea.
So an overshare here.
I lost in competition on a$3.2million house last Friday.
That hurt.
Yeah, yeah.
Wasn't meant to be, as they say.
But for those particular folks,they are active.
They will buy in June.
They will buy in July.
They will buy in August.
There's nothing about theirtiming except maybe if one of

(08:31):
them was away, but you knowwhat?
I'm doing a showing with themtomorrow night.
One of them's here.
One of them's going to be onZoom because he's traveling in
Europe for work.
So hey, those folks are buying.
So my third point, second beingpeople are rushing to market in
June.
My third point is sales will besluggish.
Absolutely.
I want to review sales with youfor the last year.

(08:52):
This year, let's say.
For those that like numbers,you're welcome in advance.
For those that absolutely don't,Hey, you know what?
Just picture something fun inyour head for about the next 45
seconds.
In January, we saw the thirdlowest sales of all time.
Now, I'm saying in the month ofJanuary, and I'm also saying all
time, 2002 onward, because thatis when I track statistics from.

(09:14):
It's a long story, but the citywas way too small pre-2000 to
start looking at comparativepurposes.
So the highest number in Januaryis 6,928.
So our 3847 offhand, I'd saywe're about 40% down from the
peak.
Now in February, We saw thelowest sales in any February of
all time, 4,037.
Now, for reference, 2024 was5,607.

(09:35):
4,000 sales down from 5,600.
Now, in March, we also saw thelowest of all time.
So if you're playing along,January had the third lowest,
February had the lowest, Marchhas the lowest.
Now, 5,011 sales.
The second lowest, 6,171.
That is not even close.

(09:57):
And in 2024...
which was the third lowest ever,we saw 6,560 sales.
So that goes along withFebruary.
We're dropping off massively.
Now, April was the lowest of alltime if you eliminate 2020,
which was COVID, which you kindof have to eliminate.
Now, 5,601 sales.
I noted here the second lowestwas last year in 2024, 7,114
sales.

(10:18):
That's a 21% decline.
Now, in the month of May...
We also saw the lowest sales ofall time, minus COVID once
again, 6,244 sales.
Now, the second lowest happenedto be 2024, but it was still
7,000 sales.
Now, down 11%.
So it's only down 11%.
The year before was down 21%.
Could we put a positive spin onthat?

(10:39):
If we wanted to, which I'm notgoing to try to do.
Folks, as I said, hopefully youdidn't tune out all those
numbers.
We saw...
in May, April, March, andFebruary, the lowest sales in
those respective months of alltime.
So as I said, my third pointsales will be sluggish.
I mean, I'm not really going outon a limb here, am I?
Now, by the time you watch thisvideo, perhaps the June data

(11:02):
will be out.
I would hazard a guess that wewill also see June as the lowest
sales in any month of June ofall time.
But it brings me to my nextpoint, And I don't want to
extrapolate this through the endof the year, but let's talk
about what sales are going tolook like by the end of the
year, because this isfascinating to me, folks.
Work with me here.
Numbers.
Think numbers.
2021, the year, was beautiful.

(11:25):
The most sales of all time inthe history of Toronto, 122,133.
Last year, 67,984.
And that was up from 2023 whenwe saw 66,000.
So for reference, 66,000 is thelowest.
68,000, let's round up, is thesecond lowest.
That was in 2023 and 2024.

(11:46):
This year, we are on pace, by mycalculations, to be around
61,000 sales.
Right?
That's wild.
We're gonna see the lowest salesever, but 61,000 is, half of
2021.

(12:06):
So just think about that for amoment.
On this sheet, if you'rewatching on YouTube, well, I'll
show it to you.
There we are.
Beautiful, Gaff.
I'm charting everything from2002 onwards.
And 2023, 2024, and 2025 aregoing to be the bottom three
numbers.
Now, a pessimist, a cynic, amarket bearer is going to say,
oh my God, the sky is falling.
And if I was to put a positivespin on this, I would say, yeah,

(12:29):
that's called a market trough.
So get ready for an insanelybusy 2026 and 2027.
Now I'm gonna pause there andallow those of you that hate me
to go to the comments sectionand call me names and tell me
just how much I'm pumping thetires of real estate.
Go ahead, I'm gonna have a sipof coffee.

(12:49):
Anya Ettinger is a friend ofmine.
She's big on TikTok.
She told me, you know, just leaninto it.
I cannot believe the commentsshe gets on whatever forum,
TikTok or whatever nonsense itis.
98% of her comments are justangry, vile, hateful.
People that absolutely hate realestate agents, real estate, and
all things real estate, theyprobably live in basements.

(13:11):
Lean into it.
What a jerk.
What a jerk.
I can't believe he said that.
So yeah, I think those of youthat understand economics would
agree that when you look at2023, 2024, and 2025, three
months that are all right at thebottom of this chart of yearly
sales from 2002 onward, youwould probably agree that this
is a market trough.
And I know there are people thatdon't want it to be so or that

(13:33):
don't agree or want real estateto drop 100% in value.
But I think that when you lookat the sales data, which is
something that people like tolook at prices, but I'd like to
look at the sales because thatto me represents the
relationship in the marketbetween buyers and sellers.
If there aren't sales, you haveyou know, when you turn magnets
around and they push away fromeach other, that's what you have
in this market right now.

(13:53):
That's the most fascinating partof the market to me.
So sales will be sluggish.
My fourth point here, folks, isthat there will be relistings
like crazy.
So now my number four point,relistings like crazy.
This has been a story all year.
Properties are listed, there'san offer date, It doesn't sell,
and then they terminate andrelist.
Now, you take a 999, they want12, and they don't get any

(14:17):
offers, so they relist at 1229.
This is very common, but I wantto tell you a quick story.
We had a listing a couple ofweeks ago on the east side where
we listed for 1,099,000, and wesold for 1.3.
Now, how many offers do youthink it took us to get from
1,099,000 list to 1.3 sale?
Uno.
I'm holding up a finger forthose that are listening.

(14:38):
Oh, no, it's the index finger.
Yes, we had one offer.
Now, I'm not tooting my hornhere and saying, wow, I got
$200,000 over the list with oneoffer.
A lot went into this.
This showed really, really well.
We spent two weeks renovatingthis house from top to bottom.
We marketed it.
We staged it.
We did all the wonderful thingsthat we do, which I won't get
into today.
But that's not automatic.
Far from it.
And I don't want to say therewas luck involved.

(14:59):
I had a great agent on the otherside.
The buyers really wanted to buyit.
They loved the house.
The sellers were willing tosell.
Now, The next day, my sellersaid to me, I just emailed our
mortgage broker aboutdischarging the small mortgage,
and he said, wow, good for youguys.
I have so many clients on theeast side that can't sell their
homes.
He was relieved.

(15:19):
We're in a market now wherethere is a little bit of relief
sometimes, which didn't used tobe.
And I think that when you seeall of the re-listings that are
happening out there, it makesyou want to sell, or at least it
should.
So don't get me wrong, there areall kinds of sellers, houses,
and condos that have absolutelyno chance of selling.
I've used this example before.
Tell me I've got a listing at$599 and there isn't one right

(15:43):
upstairs identical for$729.99.
That's happening all over thecity.
And I'm not talking aboutslightly different.
I'm talking about if I have aunit 1101, 1201 is for sale for
30% more.
Those are what I call dummylistings.
They might as well not evencount.
But when you look at whathappened on the east side, as I
said, we sold this place.
We weren't lucky.
We were fortunate.
We did our work.
We were awarded for it.

(16:04):
And handsomely, there are somany other properties that are
listing and relisting andlisting and relisting.
The relistings...
are going to get worse.
Now, once upon a time, TorontoReal Estate Board tracked the
relisting data.
Unfortunately, they took thataway.
I think it was November of 2024was the last month that we had
statistics for it.
But I loved looking year overyear and month to month because

(16:24):
really at peak, you would see athird, a third of all listings
were relists.
I think that number, if we hadthose statistics today, would be
upwards of 40%.
I am seeing properties routinelylisted three or four times where
that used to be something thatyou would write home about.
Now, this leads into pointnumber five, terminations like

(16:46):
crazy.
We're going to have terminationsall over the place, and this is
going to filter into somethingthat's my point number nine,
which I'm going to save.
What happens with the folks thatterminate?
Now, I put a note here.
Some do it as a strategy.
There was a brilliant strategyfor a house on Leaside that
didn't sell in, I think, Jan orFeb.

(17:06):
They terminated the listing andtook it off MLS.
But the listing agent leteveryone know it's still
available.
Now, what happens there?
You stop the days on market fromincreasing.
It's on the market for 30 days,people think price reduction.
60 days, you're well overdue.
90 days, they can't sell it.
What the agent did after 30 dayswas terminate the listing, take

(17:28):
it off MLS.
Now anyone watching it is gonnacall you, so right off the bat,
you've done your job andsolicited some interest, but now
you get to sort of pull back andsay, well, yeah, they might
still sell, even though in thiscase they really want to.
The days on market stop at 30,because you took it off the
market after 30, and youcontinue to market it offline
casually while pretending asthough you know, they might

(17:49):
sell, they might not.
That property ended up selling,and I think the strategy was
brilliant.
Now, some people will do that,but that's with, you know, this
is a$4.5 million house in NorthToronto.
Now, others will just take themoff the market.
Do they want to sell?
And that's going to lead intoone of my points later on.
Now, point number six, the condomarket will continue to decline.

(18:13):
We sold a condo over the weekendwhere I said, I'm not a
religious person, but I believethis was a gift from God.
I could not believe that we gotan offer, let alone the offer
that we did, let alone the factthat we actually signed back for
more money and to change certainthings.
And the I don't believe in luck,but I believe in good fortune

(18:33):
when the agent on the other sidemaybe is a little bit green.
So, the condo market, let's talkabout it.
The absorption rate, do you guysknow what that is?
That is the ratio of sales tolistings.
Now, the condo market absorptionrate, or let's just talk about
absorption rates in general,anything less than 50% signals a
buyer's market, theoretically.

(18:53):
Now, if you were to go back tosome peak months, let's say,
let's say, Oh, this is wild.
2021 in February, the absorptionrate was 90% in the 416.
That's not normal.
March was 77 and a half.
April was 64.
And you know, that's 2021,right?
That was a red hot market.
But let's say 2023 and 2024,just to say we did.

(19:15):
Let's take March.
The absorption rate in the 416in March of 2023 was 57%.
In March of 2024, it was 40%.
In March of 2025, it was 26.1%.
Now let's look at April.
61% in 2023, 33.6 in 2024, 25%in 2025.

(19:37):
Folks, the absorption rate isthe lowest that I've ever seen
it.
Now the lowest I've ever seen,I'm gonna circle it here.
September of 2024 in the 416, wehit an absorption rate of 24.6%.
That is lower than one quarter.
But we just surpassed that inMay.
In the 416, when we hit anabsorption rate of only 24.2%,

(19:59):
and my God, in the 905 guys inMay, the absorption rate was
23.3%.
Now, maybe stats are boring andabsorption rates are something
you're not interested in, but doyou understand what that's
saying?
Statistically, it means that oneof every four listings or less
is producing a sale.
Now, I mentioned we're seeinglistings over and over and over.

(20:20):
Property could be listed fourtimes.
You could argue, yeah, well,it's just because listings are
up, relists are up.
What I'm seeing...
is that the sales figures in thecondo market is absolutely
abysmal, and they are selling.
Tara and I just got an offer on,I won't say the address, but we
got an offer on this listing,and again, I remain shocked.
Now, who's the buyer for that?
This is a Burlington agent whobrought an offer from his

(20:43):
Calgary client who's buying thiscondo for his son to go to the
University of Toronto, and hey,after that, we'll just rent it
out to some students or maybehis friends.
So that's where you've gotwealth.
It's gonna be held in a familytrust.
you can look at this and say,say it's an$800,000 condo and at
market peak, this was, I don'tknow, a million bucks.
This person's saying, well, Icould have my son rent a place,

(21:05):
but why don't I just buy aplace?
The market's really weak rightnow.
That's who's buying.
But in terms of actual numbers,guys, the actual number of sales
in the 416, in May, there were973 condos sold.
It's down from 1,297 in May of2017 2024 and it's down from

(21:26):
1,694 in 2023.
There just aren't a lot of salesout there.
973 condos sold in May inToronto?
That's the 416.
So I do believe that as thesummer progresses, we will
continue to see weakness in thecondo market.
The people that are selling arethose that need to and want to.
And I've got a few folks thatare now saying, let's see how

(21:50):
we're gonna put all thesepredictions together.
The condo market is continuingto decline.
That's point number six.
Terminations like crazy is pointnumber five.
Sales will be sluggish is pointnumber three.
That leads into my next point.
The rental market is going toslow.
Now the rental market slowing isa function of many things.
First of all, immigration levelsand the number of students.

(22:10):
We've seen way too much aboutthat in the media.
We're not gonna get into thattoday.
But I would also say that a lotof folks that can't sell their
condos are looking to leasethem.
So I'll give you an example.
I have a client who's got acondo on the market.
We've reduced it in price once.
She said, I think I'd like toexplore the rental
possibilities.
In this building, here's what'scompeting against us.

(22:33):
You have a similar size unit for$2,045 a month, 44 days on the
market.
Another unit for$2,050 a month,88 days on the market.
Another unit for$2,050 a month,four days on the market.
Another unit for 2,075 a month,92 days in the market.
Another unit for$2,100 a month,66 days in the market.

(22:56):
And another unit, egregiouslypriced at 2,200 a month, 41 days
on the market.
So if you're playing along athome, that is six units that
would be competing with us.
And I told my client, you haveto list at 1,995.
You have to list lower than allof these.
Now tell me like, oh, David,you're not working hard enough.
No, like this is statistics.

(23:16):
This is the market.
These are not moving.
Between 2000 and 45, look, theguy that's in the market at
2200, okay, cool, man, same unitis on the market for 2045, and
it's not moving either.
You gotta be 1995.
Hell, you might have to take$1,900 to get a tenant in there.
So that is another predictionfor the summer market.
Rentals are going to slow, whichis ironic because the summer's

(23:39):
usually when rentals are verybusy.
Think about this.
What is the number one rentalstart date out of the 365 days
in the real estate calendar?
No, it's not January 1st, it isSeptember 1st.
September 1st because that'swhen students want to move.
So every June and July, andAugust if you're really late to

(24:00):
the game, that is when therental market picks up.
Now the rental statistics fromthe absorption rate perspective,
the highest absorption rate inthe rental market is always in
July.
Every single year because somany people with 60 days lead
time, you're trying to find aplace in July to take possession
in September.
this year it might peak you knowfor 2025 in july but that

(24:25):
absorption rate is going to beway way lower than it is
historically now my eighthsummer prediction is that we
will have a rate cut from thebank of canada in the month of
july it's funny because thepredictions the banks make they
get to revise their predictionsso like imagine if you like made
a prediction with cash at acasino for the Super Bowl.

(24:48):
You're like, I predict that theKansas City Chiefs will beat the
Philadelphia Eagles.
And then the Eagles win.
And then you're like, I'd liketo revise my prediction.
The banks routinely get torevise our predictions.
It's so cute.
They're like, yeah, you know,we're predicting that there's
going to be a rate cut.
And then there's not.
They're like, we're revising ourpredictions.
So all year, we've talked aboutinterest rates till we're blue

(25:09):
in the face.
It seemed like in 2022 and 2023,that was all anyone wanted to
talk about.
And then the same thing in 2024,because now we're cutting before
we were raising.
It's still a topic.
Interest rates, inflation.
My God, we used to talk aboutpretty countertops.
But I think the point is made.
Inflation, believe it or not, isstarting to creep up.
And I wanna talk about realinflation versus posted

(25:29):
inflation, but that's what we'rereading between the lines.
And I think that the cut weexpected in June that didn't
happen will probably come inJuly.
I do not have the current pricesfrom the street, but it's
somewhere around an 80%probability that we're going to
see a cut in July, and thenhopefully again in December.
Now, my ninth prediction for thesummer.

(25:51):
Sellers are going to have thistheory.
The fall market's going to saveus.
Now, this theory is not based onanything but a hope, a wish, and
a dream.
I will say, you know, thesummer's usually slow.
So if you think you want to putit on the market in the fall
instead, you know, absolutely,positively.
But I had a client who had acondo on the market in April,

(26:13):
and she said, I think I want totake it off and list later.
And I said, sure, when?
She said, June.
I said, like, wait, of thisyear?
What does taking it off themarket for two and a half months
do?
Market cycles, at a minimum, arefour to six months to change.

(26:33):
Seasons are three months.
Market cycles are four to six.
Now, I don't think that thefall's gonna be any busier than
the lengthy spring, whichconsists of winter, spring, and
summer, as we noted, than thatmarket.
But I do think that there are alot of sellers out now that are
saying, listen, it didn't work.
We had it on the market forMarch, April, May, and June.
The fall's gonna be better, andthey'll put it up in the fall.

(26:55):
What they're not realizing isthat it didn't sell in March,
April, May, or June because themarket didn't agree with the
price.
Anything sells at a price, youknow,$500,000 condo, okay, you
know, 400, yeah, sure.
It's not the point of making.
Whether it's 499, 480, 475, it'sgoing to sell at a price.
Whether you want to accept thatprice or not is a determining

(27:17):
factor for a lot of sellers, andas we've mentioned, a lot of
them are deciding not to sell.
If you don't need to sell,that's fine.
But the market value, if youbelieve in an efficient market,
is what a buyer is willing topay.
And so if you're on the marketfor four months, know you're not
at market, are you going torelist in the fall and expect
something different?
What's the definition ofinsanity, right?
Doing the same thing over andover and expecting a different
result.

(27:37):
So I think that there are somany people that are going to
wait.
And then what happens, guys?
What happens?
We see terminations.
and we see people not acceptingfair market value, we see sales
are down because buyers andsellers can't find that overlap
in the Venn diagram, and theneveryone says, I've got a
brilliant idea, I'm gonna takeit off for the summer and put it
up in the fall.

(27:58):
What happens then?
Most listings in the history ofSeptember ever, and that would
put downward pressure on price.
So if you're a buyer and you'rewatching this, I would say, hey,
why do you wanna buy?
That's the question, not tosugarcoat it.
I always use the example ofwe're a couple and we live in a
one bedroom condo and we're fourmonths pregnant.

(28:18):
Okay, yeah, you wanna buy ahouse for a very good reason.
Yes, you could wait a month orthree or six or nine.
You're timing the market.
I've been there, I've done that.
Got two kids, done the condo,done the house.
Been in my house for seven yearsnow.
I would have paid more for it.
I don't care.
Easy for me to say, but pointbeing, not everything is just
about the investment potential.
If you're a buyer, remember whyyou're buying.

(28:39):
You could wait until the fall,and maybe I'm right, and there's
a massive glut of listings, andthere's downward pressure on
price, or you could takeadvantage of what's happening
out there right now, which isthat we're well off of a 2022
peak.
So that's my ninth point, guys,is that I do believe a lot of
sellers have the same theorythat the fall market is going to
save us, potentially inventorywill pile up.
People don't understand marketcycles only last four to six

(29:02):
months.
And my last point here, it's notreally a point, it's kind of a
fun one.
On Toronto Realty blog inJanuary, I offered a prediction
game.
So if you want to include thisin my predictions for summer, my
predictions are that, TheToronto Realty Blog readers'
predictions are so far off.
Guys, this is kind of a fun one.
Pay attention here.

(29:22):
I put 10 questions on TorontoRealty Blog, and I think I said
I'd give a$500 Starbucks card towhoever got the most points,
right?
These were our questions.
First question was, what will bethe average home price for 2025?
And I said a point is scored ifyou're guessed within plus or
minus 2%.
That's gonna be a really, reallyhard one.
The guesses were all over theplace.
I do think the average homeprice on a year-over-year basis

(29:45):
We'll be down from 2024.
And out of the 32 contestantsthat paid attention, exactly 16
of them said it will be higherand 16 said lower.
Now, which month of the yearwill represent the highest
average home price?
This is interesting becausehistorically it's May, but we
just saw a May price that waswell below 2024, which was below
2023.

(30:05):
Do you think we're going to seea higher average home price in
the fall?
My third question, whichindividual months average,
sorry, will any individualmonths average home price top
1.2 million?
We haven't seen a$1.2 millionmonthly price since 2022.
13 of 32, which is less thanhalf, but 13 people said yes.

(30:26):
And I can tell you withconfidence, pretty good
confidence that that's not goingto happen i did say yes for the
record trump tariffs and taxesright now point number four
question number four will youhow many total sales will be in
2025 this is wild because theaverage of the 32 guesses was 72
000 and i just told youpreviously we're on pace for 58

(30:48):
000 the highest guess was 83 312the lowest was one of my blog
trolls named oscar the grouchthat's kind of cool don't be
wrong i love the trolls they'refun um 42,000, this guy guessed.
And he might actually win.
Which month of the year willrepresent the highest number of
total sales?
I don't know.
That's fascinating.

(31:09):
It depends on whether we'll seea busy fall.
Number six, will any individualmonth of the year see more than
8,000 sales?
15 people out of 32 said yes.
I don't think we're going to seethat.
How many total new listings willthere be in 2025?
I won't bore you with that onebecause the numbers don't really
have any context.
Here's a good one.
How many individual months willsee more than 20,000 new

(31:31):
listings?
That's a big number, 20,000 newlistings.
The average guess was 5.2.
The lowest guess was zero.
The highest guess was 10.
I think we're probably gonna seeseven or eight.
Will any individual month of theyear see a GTA condo price
higher than the peak price?
of 2024, which was in May,767,000.

(31:54):
Five of 32 said yes.
I can't remember what I said,but those five people are going
to be wrong.
And last but not least, whatwill the Bank of Canada policy
rate be after the lastannouncement on December 10th?
The average guess was 2.26.
The lowest was 1.5 and thehighest was three.
Now we're not going to see 1.5.

(32:14):
We're not going to see three.
I think we're going to see 2.25,is that about right?
2.25?
The average guess was 2.26,completely coincidental.
So guys, drink some water, someGatorade.
I'm a GZERO fan myself, can'ttake the sugar.
It is so incredibly hot outthere right now.

(32:37):
For the record, I'm an addict.
I mean, I have an addictivepersonality.
I'm going to add to my son'sAmerican Ninja Warrior course.
I went out and bought morestuff.
I'm literally emailing thecompany that makes the stuff.
I've got customer service.
I'm like, can I get the monkeyknot?
Can I get one more swivel rope?
What about the gadgets to put iton the line?
I hope everyone has an amazingsummer.

(32:57):
In real estate, it's been areally tough six months.
Interesting, it's kept us on ourtoes, but we become so
conditioned in Toronto for themarket only ever going up, that
all of a sudden when we get intoa tricky market, people can't
make sense of it.
We've talked a lot on TorontoRealty Blog and in this podcast
about You know, inexperience,bad behavior, sellers and buyers
fighting or not reallyunderstanding the market value.

(33:19):
At the end of the day, it's justreal estate.
This podcast is supposed to beeducational and informative.
It's supposed to be fun.
I hope that was fun.
And above all, it's supposed tokeep you coming back again and
again.
So I appreciate your viewership.
Thank you so much for watching.
If you're on YouTube, feel freeto drop me a comment.
Even if it's one of thenegative, nasty ones, it's fine.
If you're listening, whereveryou get your podcasts, Spotify,

(33:40):
Apple Music, or something cooland new that I don't even know
about, Please remember to like,comment, or subscribe.
Have a fantastic long weekend,and we will see you next time
here on The Last Honest Realtor.
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