Confidence Crisis

In this episode of The Lebenthal Report, hosts Michael Hartzman and Dominick Tavella are joined once again by Jeff Oak of Vistage, our trusted quarterly guest, to discuss the latest data on small business sentiment — and it’s sounding the alarm.

Jeff shares insights from Vistage’s latest CEO Confidence Index survey, which saw a dramatic 22-point drop. With hiring expectations falling from 65% to 45% and tariff policy uncertainty growing, small business leaders are bracing for economic turbulence.

We explore:

• The disconnect between soft data (sentiment) and hard economic indicators
• What’s driving the downturn in confidence
• Why CEOs are cautious about growth and hiring
• Recession probability estimates of 30–60%

Tune in for timely insights into how small businesses are navigating market volatility and preparing for the challenges ahead in 2025.

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