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October 9, 2023 • 28 mins

Are you ready to have your perspective on the food industry completely transformed? Today, we're discussing the shocking impact of weight loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, on our food consumption and how Walmart's CEO comments on the impact. Believe it or not, we're talking about a startling 15% decrease in body weight in individuals taking these medications, and this is sending ripples through the food sector. From the future of the diabetic food market to the impending transformation in fast-food and pizza restaurants, we're covering it all. Brace yourself for an in-depth discussion on long-term effects and how the food industry is scrambling to change its ways.

But that's not all we're stirring up today. We're dissecting the alarming rise of eating disorders, a shadowy consequence of the social media boom. How can the joy of shopping for fresh food combat mental health issues? We'll explore this intriguing concept. Hear Laura Thornton's heart-wrenching tale, as reported in the Washington Post, on the harmful influence of social media on our youth. Then, we'll turn our attention to Stouffer's Advent Comfort Calendar and its potential to shake up the holiday food market. You wouldn't want to miss our critique on Christmas-themed Macaroni and Cheese and its possible repercussions on the food landscape. Stay tuned!

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Phil (00:04):
Welcome to the Lempert Report LIVE.
On today's episode Walmart CEOcomments about Ozempic struck
fear in the industry.
Now we have yet another 'new'Coke.
Everyone thinks that CPG brandsare ripping us off.
On Food Not Phones, how socialmedia is feeding eating
disorders.

(00:25):
And on the Bullseye, anotherbrand wants in on the Advent
calendar craze.
Let's get started.
So, Sally.
Last week was eye-opening in thefood world when John Furner,
who's the president and CEO ofWalmart US operations, talked
about the impact that Ozempic ishaving on his basket size for

(00:48):
his customers.
Now the interesting thing isthat obviously Walmart weg
Ozempic and through Wegovy astheir pharmacies.
So yes, they're, they're losinga little bit money there.
But really what it's done isit's woken up the industry to
the fact that we're going tohave some severe changes.

(01:10):
The average person who's onWegovy Ozempic or decreased
Wegovy by about 15 percent.
It is projected that 7 percentof the population is going to be
on weight loss drugs by 2035.
The S&P 500 packaged food andmeat sub index has dropped 14

(01:34):
percent so far this year, whilethe S&P 500 has climbed 11
percent.
So you know, food companieshave been nervous to begin with.
Now, with this Ozempic, it getseven worse.
Rabobank says that these drugspose a new threat to the
packaged food industry growth,and the quote is if two thirds

(01:58):
of Americans are the targetaudience for these weight loss
drugs, it's a huge thing.
Let's not forget that when itcomes to weight loss and these
drugs, that's really a sideeffect.
They're really designed fordiabetes and the diabetic food
market is on track to achieve aremarkable milestone, projected

(02:22):
to reach 15.49 billion dollarsin sales by 2028.
And if we look at the numbersof people who have diabetes in
estimated 537 millionindividuals age 20 to 79
currently, now that amounts toabout one in every 10 people.

(02:45):
It's going to rise by 2030 to643 million people globally and
by 2045, 783 million.
No question about it.
These, these products are goingto.
You know they're, they're onthe way up, and especially since

(03:06):
right now they're injectables.
But a pill format is going tocome out and I think you have a
lot of people who are going toprefer the pill format than
anything else.
And Morgan Stanley did a surveyof 300 people currently on

(03:27):
either Ozempic or Wegovy.
They found that the dailycalorie consumption was
diminished by 30 percent.
30 percent reduction in in foodis huge for individuals, even
if it's just seven percent ofthe population, and I think

(03:47):
we're going to start to see somebig changes both at food
companies, at restaurants, as asthe Ozempic Wegovy phenomenon
gets even bigger.

Sally (04:01):
Yes, absolutely.
There are so many things tothink about.
In a sense.
Ozempic and Wegovy have goneviral on social media and I just
read a study that 15% ofAmericans have personally used
Ozempic for weight loss.
That's 15%.
That's not even includingWegovy, that's just Ozempic, and

(04:22):
47% say they know someone whohas.
But 70% of Americans are sayingthat they can't afford to take
it.
So there's another largemajority of Americans that maybe
would take it if it becomesaffordable for them, which we
may see as you're talking aboutthe demand growing for it and it

(04:43):
coming in a pill form.
There are also concerns aboutpeople with that do have
diabetes, the shortage of thisdrug with them.
But what we're talking abouthere, and what we've heard from
the Walmart CEO, is how this isaffecting CPGs, how this is
affecting food sales, andthey're pointing at some of the

(05:04):
companies like Nestle andCoca-Cola these companies that
will be affected.
We have in America a hugepropensity for sugar in fat and
these weight loss drugs maychange our desires for that much
sugar in fat.
Our palates may change because,as people are using these drugs

(05:28):
, they're also trying to balanceit with changing their diet,
their behaviors, and so ifthey're going to be looking for
foods with less sugar and lessfat to support this weight loss
program they are on.
Then these companies are goingto have to adjust their products
.

Phil (05:46):
They are.
And talking about some of thechanges, Jeffries did a survey
of 800 people on these weightloss drugs and they found out,
to your point 25% drank lessalcohol.
42% ate food from restaurantsless often.
44% say they ate smalleramounts of food from the

(06:11):
restaurant.
42% eat less fast food andpizza.
46% drink less soda.
Probably the most importantfinding that, I think, is that
70% of the people are more awareof the nutritional value of
their food and beverage choices.
Again, talking to your pointabout societal changes that take

(06:34):
place, so it's not just thepill or the injection, but these
kinds of things take a hugeamount of impact on.
Again, whether it's restaurants, can you imagine, if you're
seeing 42% less eating at fastfood and pizza places, what that

(06:55):
does to folks like McDonald'sand Burger King?
And then, when we look atproduct categories, 44% had less
salty snacks, 44% less carbs,43% less sweet snacks, 30% less
dairy and, on a positive note,36% had more protein, 35% had

(07:17):
more healthier snacks, 43% areeating more fruits and
vegetables.
So the impact here every CEOand Furner from Walmart was the
first one to talk about this,but I've got to tell you all the
retailers that I spoke to sincethe story broke.

(07:37):
Also, some brands everybody'slooking at this saying whoa,
we're going to have to reducepackage sizes from the brand
side.
Restaurants are going to haveto offer smaller sized portions.
This is just going to have ahuge effect on the food world
and I don't know whether or notpeople in the food industry

(08:00):
really understand how importantthis is.
And we don't know yet ifthere's any side effects, long
term side effects to this.
We don't know a lot, so theremight just be a bubble that
bursts here, but I don't thinkso.
And I also believe thatchanging behavior when you're on

(08:22):
one of these drugs and you loseweight quickly, it really
reinforces what you're doing.
You see a positive body imagequickly and I think that having
that kind of effect so quickreally gets people on board of
reading labels and eatinghealthier.

(08:43):
Because, to the point of whatWalmart is saying and Jeffery's
and Morgan Stanley again, Idon't want to reiterate it, but
this is a major change for thefood industry.

Sally (09:02):
Absolutely.
It's a major change and anopportunity for Americans we
look at, we are concerned about.
We don't know what thelong-term side effects are going
to be.
We don't know if this issustainable yet for people, but
we think about all of the peoplein America that are suffering
from chronic obesity and thisbeing a light at the end of the

(09:23):
tunnel for them, as you'resaying, an opportunity for them
to see results but also to bemotivated to change their eating
habits, which we hopeultimately leads to the food
industry changing theirofferings to us.

Phil (09:40):
Yep Cleaning up ingredients.
I mean, if these people arereally reading those nutritional
labels, reading ingredientsstatements, it's going to be a
call to action.
And just last week I'm going togive you two more examples then
we'll move on.
But the shares for major foodcompanies declined when this

(10:01):
announcement came out.
Nestle shares declined by over3%, general Mills 1%.
Both Pepsi and Coke declines ofhalf of a percent after falling
as far as 5.2% during tradingShares for Kraft Heinz declining

(10:22):
2.8%.
So I mean people are payingattention to this and the best
quote comes from Jeffery'sFinancial.
One of the analysts thereestimates that United Airlines
would save $80 million a year ifthe average passenger weight
decreased by just 10 pounds.

(10:44):
That would trim about 1,790pounds from every United Flight,
which would save about 27.6million gallons of fuel every
year.
Who knew?
You know, as America getsthinner, I mean the positive
repercussions we're starting tosee and I think it's a story

(11:05):
that we're going to continue tosee.
And we'll probably get anotherbump once the pill format comes
out for these products.
So you know, remember when therewas New Coke?
Well, coke has, you know, comeback from that fiasco with some
limited editions and theirlatest limited edition Gail

(11:29):
Cooper wrote about in Taste ofHome she tried.
It's called Coca-Cola Y3000.
She says it's stupendouslysweet.
Number one that Coca-Cola'sbrags that its futuristic
flavored and was co-created withartificial intelligence.

(11:51):
It's the first limited flavorco-created with humans and
artificial intelligence and theinsights were gathered by both
human and AI for this and whatshe talked about and I have not
tasted this and, Sally, I don'tthink you've tasted it either.

Sally (12:10):
I have not.

Phil (12:11):
When you open the can, you almost get bold over by a super
strong fragrance.
The taste it's cherry,strawberry, raspberry, generic
fruit punch.
Those were the tastes that shesensed most.
It tastes like candy, if youwould.
Is Coca-Cola onto something,using AI to develop this, or is

(12:33):
it just a PR push that's goingto go nowhere?

Sally (12:40):
Well, I definitely have not tried it, Phil, and I am
very curious what AI has decidedthat we would like to taste in
a Coke.
I do remember New Coke when Iwas a kid and I think about.
Well, there was no social mediathen, but even still without
the social media, there was anuproar.
People were not excited aboutNew Coke and so they had to

(13:03):
bring back that classic Coke foreveryone.
But they are a company that hasexperimented with a lot of
limited edition flavors, andthis article is saying that this
one is kind of like what wecalled when I was a kid a
suicide, where you would takeyour cup and you would go to the
fountains and you would get alittle bit of Coke, a little bit

(13:24):
of Fanta, a little bit of DrPepper, a root beer just put a
little bit of everything inthere.
It sounds like that.
That is what this newfuturistic AI Y3000 Coca-Cola is
.

Phil (13:37):
What I really wish the Coke Y3000 would be water, just
plain old water.
You know we're talking about.
You know over 40% of peoplehaving less soda when they're on
Ozempic, Water.
Guys, hey, Coke, Pepsi, payattention to your water business
.
New survey came out fromDeloitte about fresh foods that

(14:00):
it's a key ingredient forgrocers growth.
However, what was interestingto me about this survey?
Two thirds of consumers arewilling to pay a premium for the
best fresh food.
That's up seven points yearover year.
On average, these consumers arewilling to pay 28% more for

(14:21):
fresh food than frozen, cannedor processed alternatives.
That's the bulk of the study.
But what they found is they talkto consumers and they talk to
grocery retail executives, and85% combination of the retailers

(14:42):
and consumers said that brandswere raising prices more than
needed for the purpose ofincreasing profits.
Only 10% of the grocers surveyedsaid their food suppliers were
raising prices to keep up withrising costs.
So when we look at facts likethis and you and I have spoken

(15:06):
for months about these priceincreases consumers are up in
arms about price increases andthese brands just taking these
price increases and saying thatthey deserve to have price
increases.
Their CEOs are making fortunes,their stockholders are making

(15:28):
fortunes.
But every time you and I go toa supermarket and we get our
bill, we're almost in shock.
And what I think is soimportant for brands to
understand from this Deloittesurvey as well as the recent
report the future of groceryretail is that trust in the

(15:49):
grocery store is more importantthan consumer surveyed, than
trust in food brands orgovernment regulators.
So consumers trust theirsupermarkets.
Don't screw it up, brands.
I mean just taking these priceincreases I think are a mistake,
don't you?

Sally (16:09):
I absolutely do, Phil.
One of the really eye-openingpoints of this study for me was
reading that nine and 10consumers surveyed say fresh
food makes them happy.
We've been talking a lot latelyabout how we have a really big

(16:30):
increase in our country indepression and anxiety.
You think about when people goto the grocery store, even
though the high price of food isbringing a lot of people down.
Buying fresh food makes themhappy.
Is that because they like totake it home and make something
from scratch?
Is it because they know moreabout their farmers now and

(16:54):
their local foods?
Is it because of nutrition thatthey're interested in the
nutritional profile of theseproducts?
I'm not sure, but what I'mgetting from that is that
retailers can really really takean opportunity to leverage this
happiness that people arefinding in shopping for fresh
food.
Also, if they are the trustedsource for these shoppers, then

(17:19):
communicating to them on howthey are trying to manage prices
of these foods that make themhappy and that they want to go
home with, and trying to findways to offer more benefits in
that way.

Phil (17:32):
I agree with you.
I think it's a combination ofall those factors.
Again, fresh food has wind atits back, but again, let's
remember, folks, that consumersare going to read the
ingredients and just becauseit's fresh, you still have to
have clean ingredients in it.
But I remember going backprobably 30 years ago, if not

(17:57):
even longer, Campbell's souptried to pull a fast one on
consumers and they put soup injars.
They also had some salads incontainers that they put in the
dairy case.
The idea was to get in on thefresh trend even back then.
But the reality is the soupdidn't need to be refrigerated

(18:21):
and consumers figured that outreally quickly when they looked
at the date code on the jars andit was like a year, year and a
half.
That product died a reallyquick death.
Because you can't foolconsumers, Be authentic, be
credible, be fresh.

(18:42):
Talking about depression on FoodNot Phones.
Today what we're seeing is inthe Washington Post.
Laura Thornton wrote a verypersonal column about what
happened when toxic social mediacame from my daughter.
Her daughter is 13 years oldand I'm going to just read from

(19:06):
her story.
My 13-year-old daughter wasdisappearing before my eyes.
My cheerful, funny, energeticgirl had returned from a summer
away, a ghost of her previousself sallow skin, sunken eyes,
skin and bones under bulkyclothes, her mind in a fog.
Basically because of socialmedia, there's been an explosion

(19:29):
of girls and boys starvingthemselves and making spaces
precious, because the extremediet culture fueled by social
media is the enemy here.
What do you think?

Sally (19:44):
Yes, I think this is a huge concern, particularly for
our youth and for young girls,who are the majority our young
girls that are affected by bodyimage issues and by eating
disorders.
We're hearing that three out offive teens are.
Their mental health is affectedby social media.

(20:06):
The problem we're seeing isthat these platforms may be
capitalizing on things that arenegative for us, and that is the
concern here.
It was interesting to see inwhat Laura wrote here.
She wrote about this study thatwas conducted from the Center

(20:27):
for Countering Digital Hate andwhat they did was they briefly
paused their TikTok account andliked other content about health
or body image.
Within 2.6 minutes, they wereseeing content about suicide.
They were seeing content abouteating disorders.
These algorithms are what wehave to think about.
We have to think about whatthese young girls are being

(20:49):
exposed to, where we've gotviral videos about what I eat in
the day, viral videos aboutmeasuring the width of your
thighs and your waist andshowing your rib cages out.
We've got clothing brands thatare catering now to only extra
small women.
This is an incredibly negativeforce in healthy eating and

(21:14):
healthy body image for youngwomen.
It is also deadly.
It is the second most deadlymental illness, second to opioid
addiction, in the country.

Phil (21:24):
What's interesting about Laura Thornton?
Her focus and her job has beenreally looking at bad
information infiltrating ourbody politic.
She comes at this with reallyexpertise in dis and
misinformation.

(21:45):
Whether it was about COVID-19,she worked on that whether it's
about the Kremlin conspiracytheories, she's really an expert
as it relates to this.
When we think about.
One of the points that shemakes is her daughter, who now

(22:07):
understands the impact of socialmedia, described their meal
plan with her and her friendswhere they had contests online
with girls breaking about howlittle they eat.
What I love is the ending ofthis piece.
Her daughter's phone is now ina dumpster.

(22:29):
She might get one withoutsocial media someday to talk to
friends.
I wish the tech giants andpoliticians fighting against
reforms would spend oneafternoon where my daughter is
To your point.
We've got a very seriousproblem here and I applaud the
Washington Post and Laura forputting this out there, making

(22:51):
people aware of it, and alsoit's another article that we
will post on food not phones, sostay tuned.
The next food not phones day iscoming up.
It'll be Thanksgiving, so checkout food not phones comm for
more information and how you canparticipate and why you should
participate as well.
Thanks, Sally.

(23:14):
On the Bullseye, an Adventcalendar is a special calendar.
It's used to count the days inanticipation of Christmas.
Originating from the Christiantradition, it begins on December
1st and ends on December 24th,Christmas Eve.
Each day corresponds to a dooror a window that's opened to
reveal an image, a poem, a pieceof chocolate or a small gift.

(23:36):
The idea here is to mark eachday of the advent season, the
period of preparation that leadsup to Christmas.
Now, this tradition has itsroots in 19th century Germany.
Over time, the design and thepresentation of advent calendars
have evolved and Become verycommercial, and now they come in

(23:59):
a variety of forms, rangingfrom simple paper calendars to
elaborate wooden or fabriccreations.
Many modern advent calendars,especially those that are
designed for children, containchocolates or toys behind each
door.
However, some religious ortraditional calendars might have

(24:19):
scripture or religious imagesbehind every window to celebrate
Christmas.
In recent years, themed adventcalendars have also become
popular.
For example, you might findadvent calendars dedicated to
beauty products or teas, orbooks and even wine.

(24:40):
These specialty calendarscatered of various interests but
still retain the core conceptof counting down the days to
Christmas those 24 days.
All these advent calendar hasbecome a must-have for their
shoppers.
In the US, aldi introduced thewine advent calendar in 2018,

(25:00):
which quickly became asought-after item during the
holiday season.
Following that success, aldithen expanded their advent
calendar lineup in subsequentyears.
Last year, in 2022, all theseadvent calendar lineup included
hardselts or beer.
Already, magic wine, emporiumselection cheese, bay Island hot

(25:24):
sauce, chocolate truffle andluxury chocolates.
Stouffers, the brand that's nowowned by Nestle, started selling
frozen foods back in 1953, andFor 2023, 70 years later, the
brand has announced its firstever Advent comfort calendar and
, of course, as you can imagine,it's filled with frozen foods.

(25:47):
Seven of them, includingfamily-sized macaroni and cheese
.
Family-sized lasagna with meatand sauce.
Stover's bullfills chickenbacon ranch bowl not sure what
that has to do with ChristmasStover sides, broccoli cheddar
pasta bake.
Stouffer sides, home stylemashed potatoes.
Stover's pepperoni French breadpizza and stover's ultimate

(26:11):
5G's Mac.
Now it's only available on theshop Stouffers website and
retails for $39.99.
The first drop happened lastweek, on October 2nd, and it
sold out.
The next drops are scheduledfor October 23rd, November 13th
and December 4th.
Now there's no mention on thewebsite of shipping is included

(26:33):
in the price and I guess I'lljust have to wait till 12 noon
on October 23rd to add it to thecart and see if they're
charging even more To ship it tome.
Pretty on-air marketing hats.
I see a few problems with thisbrand extension.
The first is that it'soff-brand.
The second is the assortment offoods, with a couple exceptions

(26:54):
, doesn't tie into Christmasmeals at all.
Next come the fact that most ofus wouldn't have room in our
freezers for seven items,additional items, especially
those family-sized boxes.
Now the announcement onInstagram looks like the foods
may be gift wrap and the postsays that the comfort calendar

(27:15):
is here to help you during thebusy holiday season, whether in
the time after Thanksgiving,when the last thing you want to
do is to be in the kitchen, orthe blurry days of Betwixt next,
as the year is winding down.
Now, I really do think thatthis one is a stretch for many

(27:35):
reasons and, frankly, I thinkit's time that brands that are
just scratching their heads,sitting in their little cubicles
, on how to build buzz or getattention, should stay away from
trying to connect Macaroni andcheese to the advent season.
It just doesn't make sense.
Thanks for joining us and we'llsee you back here next week.

Sally (27:58):
Be sure to visit Supermarket Guru.
com for the latest marketinganalysis issues and trends, and
don't forget to join us backhere next Monday at 2: 30 pm
Eastern for more.
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